Age is a determinant of short-term mortality in patients hospitalized for an acute exacerbation of COPD

Factors associated with risk of death in hospitalized patients for exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: an updated scoping review

INTRODUCTION

The Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (ECOPD), especially if leading to hospitalization, increases the risk of death. Our scoping review aims to identify updated mortality risk factors for both short- and long-term periods.

AREAS COVERED

A comprehensive search, covering the period from January 2013 to February 2024, was performed to identify eligible studies that consider factors associated with death in hospitalized ECOPD. We considered short-term mortality, up to one year (including in-hospital mortality, IHM) and long-term mortality over one year, without time limits. We excluded studies concerning the intensive care area.

EXPERT OPINION

We considered 38 studies, 32 and 8 reporting data about short- and long-term mortality, respectively. Two studies consider both periods. Several factors, some already known, others newly identified, have been evaluated and discussed. Some of these were related to the characteristics and severity of COPD (age, body mass index, lung impairment), and some considered the response to ECOPD. In this last context, we focused on the increasing role of biomarkers in predicting the mortality of patients, particularly IHM. Our factors associated with a worse prognosis may be helpful in clinical practice to identify patients at risk and, subsequently, determine a personalized approach.

The use of antibiotics in the early stage of acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in patients without obvious signs of infection: a multicenter, randomized, parallel-controlled study

Introduction

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a chronic respiratory disease with high prevalence and mortality. In some acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD) in patients with no obvious signs of infection, early antibiotic treatment seems to clinically improve the disease, but more studies are needed to determine the prognostic impact of antibiotic treatment in AECOPD patients with no obvious signs of infection.

Purpose

To clarify the impact of antibiotic treatment on the short-term and long-term prognoses of AECOPD patients without obvious signs of infection.

Methods

The impact of the two treatment methods on the prognosis of patients was compared at 30, 90, 180, and 360 days after discharge. A multicenter, randomized, parallel-controlled clinical trial was conducted in a department of respiratory and critical care medicine in Central China. All patients met the inclusion criteria for AECOPD, and the patients were randomly assigned to the antibiotic group or the nonantibiotic group at a 1:1 ratio. Patients in the antibiotic group were given moxifloxacin 400 mg/day intravenously for 7 days. Patients in the nonantibiotic group were intravenously injected with the same amount of normal saline as the amount of moxifloxacin given to those in the antibiotic group for 7 days.

Results

There were 406 patients in the antibiotic group and 410 patients in the nonantibiotic group. During the short-term and long-term follow-ups, the acute exacerbation frequency, intensive care unit (ICU) treatment rate, mortality, and mMRC and CAT scores were not significantly different between the two groups (p > 0.05). At the 180- and 360-day follow-ups, the forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1%) and peak expiratory flow (PEF) were not significantly different between the two groups (p > 0.05). The 30-day readmission rate was significantly lower in the antibiotic group than in the nonantibiotic group (p < 0.05). The time from discharge to the first acute exacerbation was not significantly different between the two groups (p > 0.05). The length of the first hospital stay after discharge was significantly lower in the antibiotic group (5.84 days) than in the nonantibiotic group (6.75 days) (p < 0.05). At the 30-day follow-up, the acute exacerbation frequency, age, C-reactive protein (CRP) level, and sputum viscosity were significantly greater in the nonantibiotic group than in the antibiotic group (p < 0.05). In addition, according to the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, the frequency of acute exacerbations at the 30-day follow-up was significantly greater in COPD patients aged >62.5 years, with a CRP level >12.56 mg/L or with a sputum viscosity >III, in the nonantibiotic group than in those in the antibiotic group, suggesting that the short-term prognosis was poor.

Conclusion

Patients who are >62.5 years of age, have a CRP concentration >12.56 mg/L, or have a sputum viscosity >III without obvious signs of infection should be treated with antibiotics to improve their short-term prognosis.

Clinical Trial Registration

(https://www.chictr.org.cn), (ChiCTR1800018921).

Risk factors of in-hospital mortality and discriminating capacity of NIVO score in exacerbations of COPD requiring noninvasive ventilation

BACKGROUND

Noninvasive mechanical ventilation (NIV) is recommended as the initial mode of ventilation to treat acute respiratory failure in patients with AECOPD. The Noninvasive Ventilation Outcomes (NIVO) score has been proposed to evaluate the prognosis in patients with AECOPD requiring assisted NIV. However, it is not validated in Chinese patients.

METHODS

We used data from the MAGNET AECOPD Registry study, which is a prospective, noninterventional, multicenter, real-world study conducted between September 2017 and July 2021 in China. Data for the potential risk factors of mortality were collected and the NIVO score was calculated, and the in-hospital mortality was evaluated using the NIVO risk score.

RESULTS

A total of 1164 patients were included in the study, and 57 patients (4.9%) died during their hospital stay. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that age ≥75 years, DBP <60 mmHg, Glasgow Coma Scale ≤14, anemia and BUN >7 mmol/L were independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. The in-hospital mortality was associated with an increase in the risk level of NIVO score and the difference was statistically significant (p < .001). The NIVO risk score showed an acceptable accuracy for predicting the in-hospital mortality in AECOPD requiring assisted NIV (AUC: 0.657, 95% CI: 0.584-0.729, p < .001).

CONCLUSION

Our findings identified predictors of mortality in patients with AECOPD receiving NIV, providing useful information to identify severe patients and guide the management of AECOPD. The NIVO score showed an acceptable predictive value for AECOPD receiving NIV in Chinese patients, and additional studies are needed to develop and validate predictive scores based on specific populations.

Association Between Rome Classification Among Hospitalized Patients With COPD Exacerbations and Short-Term and Intermediate-Term Outcomes

BACKGROUND

Recently, the Rome proposal updated the definition of exacerbation of COPD (ECOPD). However, such severity grade has not yet demonstrated intermediate-term clinical relevance.

RESEARCH QUESTION

What is the association between the Rome severity classification and short-term and intermediate-term clinical outcomes?

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

We retrospectively grouped hospitalized patients with ECOPD according to the Rome severity classification (ie, mild, moderate, severe). Baseline, clinical, microbiologic, gas analysis, and laboratory variables were collected. In addition, data about the length of hospital stay and mortality (in-hospital and a follow-up time line from 6 months until 3 years) were assessed.

RESULTS

Of the 347 hospitalized patients, 39% were categorized as mild, 31% were categorized as moderate, and 30% were categorized as severe. Overall, patients with severe ECOPD had an extended length of hospital stay. Although in-hospital mortality was similar among groups, patients with severe ECOPD presented a worse prognosis in all follow-up time points. The Kaplan-Meier curves show the role of the severe classification in the cumulative survival at 1 and 3 years (Gehan-Breslow-Wilcoxon test, P = .032 and P = .004, respectively). The multivariable Cox regression analysis showed a higher risk of death at 1 year when patients presented a severe (hazard ratio, 1.99; 95% CI, 1.49-2.65) or moderate grade (hazard ratio, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.10-1.97) compared with a mild grade. Older patients (aged ≥ 80 years), patients requiring long-term oxygen therapy, or patients reporting previous ECOPD episodes had a higher mortality risk. A BMI between 25 and 29 kg/m2 was associated with a lower risk.

INTERPRETATION

The Rome classification makes it possible to discriminate patients with a worse prognosis (severe or moderate) until a 3-year follow-up.

Prognostic Value of Serum Cholinesterase Levels for In-Hospital Mortality among Patients with Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Cholinesterase (ChE) is associated with the pathogenesis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), including chronic airway inflammation and oxidation/antioxidant imbalance. However, the relationship between serum ChE levels and survival outcomes of patients hospitalized with acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD) is unknown. In this retrospective single-center study, we investigated the ability of the serum ChE level to predict in-hospital death in patients hospitalized with AECOPD. The clinicopathological data, including serum ChE levels as well as clinical and biochemical indicators were extracted for 477 patients from the hospital records and analyzed. Our results demonstrated that AECOPD patients with lower serum ChE levels were associated with increased mortality, frequent hospitalization due to acute exacerbations (AE) in the past year, and longer hospital stay. The optimal cutoff value for the serum ChE level was 4323 U/L. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) values for predicting in-hospital mortality based on the serum ChE level was 0.79 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.72-0.85). Multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that serum ChE level ≤ 4323 U/L (odds ratio (OR) 9.09, 95% CI 3.43-28.3, p < 0.001), age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index (aCCI), and the number of hospitalizations due to AE in the past year were independent risk factors for predicting the in-hospital mortality of AECOPD patients. In conclusion, our study demonstrated that low serum ChE levels were associated with significantly higher in-hospital mortality rates of patients hospitalized with AECOPD. Therefore, serum ChE level is a promising prognostic predictor of hospitalized AECOPD patients.

Emergency ultrasound of respiratory muscles: a promising tool for determining the outcomes of COPD exacerbations

BACKGROUND

The respiratory muscles of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exhibit structural and functional changes that can be evaluated and monitored by ultrasonography.

METHODS

This single-center, prospective study was conducted in the emergency department (ED) of a tertiary care hospital over an eight-month period (September 2020-May 2021). Diaphragmatic excursions, end-expiratory thickness, and thickening fractions, as well as right and left intercostal muscle thicknesses, of all adult subjects manifesting COPD exacerbation, were assessed. The data were analyzed regarding ward/intensive care unit (ICU) hospitalization or discharge from the ED, mortality, and readmission within 15 days.

RESULTS

Sixty-three subjects were recruited for the study. Diaphragmatic excursion, end-expiratory diaphragmatic thickness, and intercostal muscle thickness measurements were significantly different between the ward, ICU, and discharge groups (p < 0.001) but lower in the deceased subjects (all p < 0.05). The diaphragmatic excursion value of 3.25 cm was the threshold value measured for distinguishing discharge from ED, and 1.82 cm was measured for admission to the ICU, both with 100% sensitivity and selectivity (AUC = 1).

DISCUSSION

Diaphragmatic excursion, diaphragmatic end-expiratory thickness, and right and left intercostal muscle thicknesses vary in the prognosis of subjects presenting with COPD exacerbation.

Serum Creatinine/Cystatin C Ratio as a Predictor of In-hospital Mortality in Patients Hospitalized with Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Purpose

Low serum creatinine/cystatin C ratio (CCR) is associated with unfavorable characteristics in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD); however, the relationship between CCR and in-hospital mortality of patients with acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD) is unexplored. Our objective was to assess the value of CCR for predicting in-hospital mortality of patients hospitalized with AECOPD.

Methods

Patients with AECOPD (n = 597) were retrospectively enrolled. Patient’s clinical characteristics and laboratory tests, including serum cystatin C and creatinine, were reviewed. The prediction value of CCR was evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values. Factors potentially impacting in-hospital mortality were investigated using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses.

Results

Mortality rate during hospitalization was 10.05%. CCR was lower in non-surviving vs. survived patients (41.67 vs. 61.52, P < 0.001). AUC value for CCR for in-hospital mortality prediction was 0.79 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.73–0.85]. On multivariate logistic regression analysis, in-hospital mortality was strongly associated with CCR < 52.27 [odds ratio (OR) 6.23, 95% CI (3.00–12.92), P < 0.001], age ≥ 81 years [OR 2.97, 95% CI (1.20–7.37), P = 0.019], oxygenation index < 300 [OR 3.28, 95% CI (1.27–8.44), P = 0.014], CRP > 8 mg/L [OR 1.84, 95% CI (1.15–2.95), P = 0.012], and D-dimer > 500 ng/L [OR 5.19, 95% CI (1.51–17.79), P = 0.009].

Conclusions

CCR was significantly lower, and is a potential prognostic indicator, in patients with AECOPD who died during hospitalization.

Nomograms for Predicting Coexisting Cardiovascular Disease and Prognosis in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A Study Based on NHANES Data

Background

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a common chronic disease. Progression is further exacerbated by the coexistence of cardiovascular disease (CVD). We aim to construct a diagnostic nomogram for predicting the risk of coexisting CVD and a prognostic nomogram for predicting long-term survival in COPD.

Methods

The 540 eligible participants selected from the NHANES 2005-2010 were included in this study. Logistic regression analysis was used to construct a diagnostic nomogram for the diagnosis of coexisting CVD in COPD. Cox regression analyses were used to construct a prognostic nomogram for COPD. A risk stratification system was developed based on the total score generated from the prognostic nomogram. We used C-index and ROC curves to evaluate the discriminant ability of the newly built nomograms. The models were also validated utilizing calibration curves. Survival curves were made using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared by the Log-rank test.

Results

Logistic regression analysis showed that gender, age, neutrophil, RDW, LDH, and HbA1c were independent predictors of coexisting CVD and were included in the diagnostic model. Cox regression analysis indicated that CVD, gender, age, BMI, RDW, albumin, LDH, creatinine, and NLR were independent predictors of COPD prognosis and were incorporated into the prognostic model. The C-index and ROC curves revealed the good discrimination abilities of the models. And the calibration curves implied that the predicted values by the nomograms were in good agreement with the actual observed values. In addition, we found that coexisting with CVD had a worse prognosis compared to those without CVD, and the prognosis of the low-risk group was better than that of the high-risk group in COPD.

Conclusions

The nomograms we developed can help clinicians and patients to identify COPD coexisting CVD early and predict the 5-year and 10-year survival rates of COPD patients, which has some clinical practical values.

Procalcitonin kinetics to guide sequential invasive-noninvasive mechanical ventilation weaning in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and respiratory failure: procalcitonin's adjunct role

How to identify the optimum switch point of sequential invasive and noninvasive ventilation is the focus of clinical attention on the patients suffering from acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) complicated by acute respiratory failure (ARF). This study aims to explore the clinical significance of taking the change rate of procalcitonin (PCT) as identifying the timing of weaning on the mechanical ventilation for the patients of AECOPD followed by ARF as a complication. There were altogether 140 patients of AECOPD complicated with ARF, who were randomly selected and divided into a study group and a control group respectively. A change rate of serum PCT level exceeding 50% was taken as the switch point selection of tracheal intubation removal for the patients of the study group, while the ‘pulmonary infection control (PIC) window’ was done for those in the control group. With CRP, IL-6, TNF-a, PaCO_2, PaO_2, and Lac having been detected before and after treatment to them all, clinical indexes were obtained and compared between these two groups. The CRP, TNF-a, and IL-6 levels of the patients in the study group after treatment (p < 0.05) were lower than those in the control group. There was no significant difference in PaCO_2, PaO_2, and Lac between these two groups before and after treatment (p > 0.05). Even so, some other indexes available for the study group of patients were found to be lower than those for the control group (p < 0.05) in the following aspects: duration of invasive ventilation support, total time of mechanical ventilation support, incidence rate of ventilator-associated pneumonia, 48-hour reintubation rate, incidence rate of upper gastrointestinal bleeding, hospitalization time of critical respiratory illness, total hospitalization time, RICU treatment cost, total treatment cost, and mortality. It is preferable to take the change rate of PCT level exceeding 50% as the switch point of weaning time in sequential mechanical ventilation rather than the PIC window.

Abbreviations

AECOPD: acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; ARF: acute respiratory failure; PCT: procalcitonin; PaO₂: the oxygen partial pressure; PaCO₂: the partial pressure of carbon dioxide; TNF-a: serum tumor necrosis factor-a; IL-6: interleukin-6; CRP: serum C-reactive protein; PIC window: pulmonary infection control window; RICU: respiration and intensive care unit