Fisheries regulatory regimes and resilience to climate change

Social-ecological vulnerability and risk of China's marine capture fisheries to climate change

Climate change is a new disrupter to global fisheries systems and their governance frameworks. It poses a pressing management challenge, particularly in China, which is renowned as the world's largest fishing country and seafood producer. As climate change continues to intensify in the region and climate awareness grows within the country's national policy, the need to understand China's fisheries' resilience to the escalating climate crisis becomes paramount. In this study, we conduct an interdisciplinary analysis to assess the vulnerability and risk of China's marine capture fisheries in response to climate change. This study employs a spatially explicit, indicator-based approach with a coupled social-ecological framework, focusing on 67 species and 11 coastal regions. By integrating diverse sets of climatic, ecological, economic, societal, and governance indicators and information, we elucidate the factors that could hinder climate adaptation, including a limited understanding of fish early life stages, uncertainty in seafood production, unequal allocation and accessibility of resources, and inadequate consideration of inclusive governance and adaptive management. Our results show that species, which have managed to survive the stress of overfishing, demonstrate a remarkable ability to adapt to climate change. However, collapsing stocks such as large yellow croaker face a high risk due to the synergistic effects of inherent biological traits and external management interventions. We emphasize the imperative to build institutional, scientific, and social capacity to support fisheries adaptation. The scientific insights provided by this study can inform fisheries management decisions and promote the operationalization of climate-resilient fisheries in China and other regions.

Climate resilience and risks of rigidity traps in Iceland's fisheries

Iceland's fisheries system is well-governed, data-rich, and has adapted to past ecological change. It thus provides an opportunity to identify social-ecological attributes of climate resilience and interactions among them. We elicited barriers and enabling conditions for adaptation in Iceland's fisheries from semi-structured expert interviews, using projections of fish habitat shifts by mid-century to guide discussion. Interviewees highlighted flexible management, highly connected institutions that facilitate learning, ample assets to expand adaptive options, and cultural comfort with change. However, examining how these attributes interact in reinforcing feedback loops revealed potential rigidity traps, where optimization for resilience to stock shifts may render the system more vulnerable to extreme environmental change and social backlash. This study articulates resilience attributes that Iceland and other fisheries systems might prioritize as the climate changes. It further explores circumstances in which these same attributes risk forming traps, and potential pathways to escape them.

Social-ecological vulnerability of fishing communities to climate change: A U.S. West Coast case study

Climate change is already impacting coastal communities, and ongoing and future shifts in fisheries species productivity from climate change have implications for the livelihoods and cultures of coastal communities. Harvested marine species in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem support U.S. West Coast communities economically, socially, and culturally. Ecological vulnerability assessments exist for individual species in the California Current but ecological and human vulnerability are linked and vulnerability is expected to vary by community. Here, we present automatable, reproducible methods for assessing the vulnerability of U.S. West Coast fishing dependent communities to climate change within a social-ecological vulnerability framework. We first assessed the ecological risk of marine resources, on which fishing communities rely, to 50 years of climate change projections. We then combined this with the adaptive capacity of fishing communities, based on social indicators, to assess the potential ability of communities to cope with future changes. Specific communities (particularly in Washington state) were determined to be at risk to climate change mainly due to economic reliance on at risk marine fisheries species, like salmon, hake, or sea urchins. But, due to higher social adaptive capacity, these communities were often not found to be the most vulnerable overall. Conversely, certain communities that were not the most at risk, ecologically and economically, ranked in the category of highly vulnerable communities due to low adaptive capacity based on social indicators (particularly in Southern California). Certain communities were both ecologically at risk due to catch composition and socially vulnerable (low adaptive capacity) leading to the highest tier of vulnerability. The integration of climatic, ecological, economic, and societal data reveals that factors underlying vulnerability are variable across fishing communities on the U.S West Coast, and suggests the need to develop a variety of well-aligned strategies to adapt to the ecological impacts of climate change.

Review of adaptations of U.S. Commercial Fisheries in response to the COVID-19 pandemic using the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework

The COVID-19 pandemic transformed social and economic systems globally, including fisheries systems. Decreases in seafood demand, supply chain disruptions, and public safety regulations required numerous adaptations to maintain the livelihoods and social resilience of fishing communities. Surveys, interviews, and focus groups were undertaken to assess impacts from and adaptive responses to the pandemic in commercial fisheries in five U.S. regions: the Northeast, California, Alaska, the U.S. Caribbean, and the Pacific Islands. Fishery adaptation strategies were categorized using the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework, a novel application to understand social transformation in a social-ecological system in response to a disturbance. A number of innovations emerged, or were facilitated, that could improve the fisheries' resilience to future disruptions. Fishers with diversified options and strategic flexibility generally fared better, i.e., had fewer disruptions to their livelihoods. Using the RAD framework to identify adaptation strategies from fishery system actors highlights opportunities for improving resilience of fisheries social-ecological systems to future stressors.

Opposing trends in fisheries portfolio diversity at harvester and community scales signal opportunities for adaptation

Understanding mechanisms that promote social-ecological resilience can inform future adaptation strategies. Among seafood dependent communities, these can be illuminated by assessing change among fisheries portfolios. Here, in collaboration with a Coast Salish Nation in British Columbia, Canada, we used expert Indigenous knowledge and network analyses to chronicle differences in fisheries portfolios pre and post a social-ecological regime shift. We then evaluated key drivers of change using semi-structured interviews. We found that while portfolios decreased in diversity of seafood types harvested and consumed among individuals overtime, portfolios increased in their diversification at the community level because more similar seafoods within less diverse individual portfolios were more commonly harvested and consumed by the Nation as a whole. Thus, diversity can operate simultaneously in opposing directions at different scales of organization. Experts identified four key mechanisms driving these changes, including commercial activities controlled by a centralized governance regime, intergenerational knowledge loss, adaptive learning to new ecological and economic opportunities, and the trading of seafood with other Indigenous communities. Unexpectedly, increased predation by marine mammals was also flagged as a key driver of change. Adaptation strategies that support access to and governance of diverse fisheries, exchange of seafoods among communities, and knowledge transfer among generations would promote social-ecological resilience, food security, and community well-being.

Fishing, predation, and temperature drive herring decline in a large marine ecosystem

Since 1960, landings of Atlantic herring have been the greatest of any marine species in Canada, surpassing Atlantic cod and accounting for 24% of the total seafood harvested in Atlantic Canada. The Scotian Shelf-Bay of Fundy herring fisheries (NAFO Division 4VWX) is among Canada's oldest and drives this productivity, accounting for up to 75% of the total herring catch in some years. The stocks' productivity and overall health have declined since 1965. Despite management measures to promote recovery implemented since 2003, biomass remains low and is declining. The factors that drive the productivity of 4VWX herring are primarily unresolved, likely impeding the effectiveness of management actions on this stock. We evaluated potential drivers of herring variability by analyzing 52 time-series that describe the temporal and spatial evolution of the 4VWX herring population and the physical, ecological, and anthropogenic factors that could affect them using structural equation models. Variation in herring biomass was best accounted for by the exploitation rate's negative effect and the geographic distribution of fishing and recruitment. Thermal phenology and temperature adversely and egg predation positively impacted the early life stage mortality rate and, ultimately, adult biomass. These findings are broadly relevant to fisheries management, but particularly for 4VWX herring, where the current management approach does not consider their early life stage dynamics or assess them within the ecosystem or climate change contexts.

Protection outcomes for fish trophic groups across a range of management regimes

Understanding how Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) improve conservation outcomes across anthropogenic pressures can improve the benefits derived from them. Effects of protection for coral reefs in the western and central Indian Ocean were assessed using size-spectra analysis of fish and the relationships of trophic group biomass with human population density. Length-spectra relationships quantifying the relative abundance of small and large fish (slope) and overall productivity of the system (intercept) showed inconsistent patterns with MPA protection. The results suggest that both the slopes and intercepts were significantly higher in highly and well-protected MPAs. This indicates that effective MPAs are more productive and support higher abundances of smaller fish, relative to moderately protected MPAs. Trophic group biomass spanning piscivores and herbivores, decreased with increasing human density implying restoration of fish functional structure is needed. This would require addressing fisher needs and supporting effective MPA management to secure ecosystem benefits for coastal communities.

Assessing countries' social-ecological resilience to shifting marine commercial species

Climate change is already impacting fisheries with species moving across fishing areas, crossing institutional borders, and thus creating conflicts over fisheries management. In this scenario, scholars agree that adaptation to climate change requires that fisheries increase their social, institutional, and ecological resilience. The resilience or capacity of a fishery to be maintained without shifting to a different state (e.g., collapse) is at stake under climate change impacts and overexploitation. Despite this urgent need, applying the resilience concept in a spatially explicit and quantitative manner to inform policy remains unexplored. We take a resilience approach and operationalize the concept in industrial fisheries for two species that have been observed to significantly shift distribution in European waters: hake (Merluccius merluccius) and cod (Gadus morhua), in the context of the European Union institutional settings. With a set of resilience factors from the literature and by means of contemporary and historic data, we select indicators that are combined into an index that measures resilience on the ecologic, socioeconomic, and institutional dimensions of the fishery. We find that the resilience index varies among species and countries, with lower resilience levels in the socioeconomic dimension of the fisheries. We also see that resilience largely depends on the overexploitation status of the fishery. The results highlight the need to address social and institutional settings to enhance fisheries adaptation to climate change and allow to inform on climate resilient adaptation pathways for the fisheries.

Realistic fisheries management reforms could mitigate the impacts of climate change in most countries

Although climate change is altering the productivity and distribution of marine fisheries, climate-adaptive fisheries management could mitigate many of the negative impacts on human society. We forecast global fisheries biomass, catch, and profits to 2100 under three climate scenarios (RCPs 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) and five levels of management reform to (1) determine the impact of climate change on national fisheries and (2) quantify the national-scale benefits of implementing climate-adaptive fisheries reforms. Management reforms accounting for shifting productivity and shifting distributions would yield higher catch and profits in the future relative to today for 60–65% of countries under the two least severe climate scenarios but for only 35% of countries under the most severe scenario. Furthermore, these management reforms would yield higher cumulative catch and profits than business-as-usual management for nearly all countries under the two least severe climate scenarios but would yield lower cumulative catch for 40% of countries under the most severe scenario. Fortunately, perfect fisheries management is not necessary to achieve these benefits: transboundary cooperation with 5-year intervals between adaptive interventions would result in comparable outcomes. However, the ability for realistic management reforms to offset the negative impacts of climate change is bounded by changes in underlying biological productivity. Although realistic reforms could generate higher catch and profits for 23–50% of countries experiencing reductions in productivity, the remaining countries would need to develop, expand, and reform aquaculture and other food production sectors to offset losses in capture fisheries. Still, climate-adaptive management is more profitable than business-as-usual management in all countries and we provide guidance on implementing–and achieving the benefits of–climate-adaptive fisheries reform along a gradient of scientific, management, and enforcement capacities.

Autonomous adaptation to climate-driven change in marine biodiversity in a global marine hotspot

While governments and natural resource managers grapple with how to respond to climatic changes, many marine-dependent individuals, organisations and user-groups in fast-changing regions of the world are already adjusting their behaviour to accommodate these. However, we have little information on the nature of these autonomous adaptations that are being initiated by resource user-groups. The east coast of Tasmania, Australia, is one of the world's fastest warming marine regions with extensive climate-driven changes in biodiversity already observed. We present and compare examples of autonomous adaptations from marine users of the region to provide insights into factors that may have constrained or facilitated the available range of autonomous adaptation options and discuss potential interactions with governmental planned adaptations. We aim to support effective adaptation by identifying the suite of changes that marine users are making largely without government or management intervention, i.e. autonomous adaptations, to better understand these and their potential interactions with formal adaptation strategies.

Sovereign states in the Caribbean have lower social-ecological vulnerability to coral bleaching than overseas territories

Coral reef social-ecological systems worldwide face major impacts from climate change, and spatial variation in vulnerability is driven by differential exposure to climatic threats, ecological and socio-economic sensitivity to those threats, ecological recovery potential, and socio-economic adaptive capacity. We assess variation in social-ecological vulnerability to climate change-induced coral bleaching, specifically for reef-based fisheries and tourism, of islands throughout the insular Caribbean, thus providing the first region-wide quantitative analysis of island-scale social-ecological vulnerability to coral bleaching. We show that different components of vulnerability have distinct spatial patterns and that variability in overall vulnerability is driven more by socio-economic than ecological components. Importantly, we find that sovereign islands are less vulnerable on average than overseas territories and that the presence of fisheries management regulations is a significant predictor of adaptive capacity and socio-economic sensitivity, with important implications for island-level governance and policies to reduce climate vulnerability.

Impacts and responses to environmental change in coastal livelihoods of south-west Bangladesh

Aquatic ecosystems are of global importance for maintaining high levels of biodiversity and ecosystem services, and for the number of livelihoods dependent on them. In Bangladesh, coastal and delta communities rely on these systems for a livelihood, and the sustainability of the productivity is seriously threatened by both climate change and unsustainable management. These multiple drivers of change shape the livelihood dependence and adaptation responses, where a better understanding is needed to achieve sustainable management in these systems, while maintaining and improving dependent livelihoods. This need has been addressed in this study in the region of Satkhira, in the southwest coast of Bangladesh, where livelihoods are highly dependent on aquatic systems for food supply and income. Traditional wild fish harvest in the rivers and aquaculture systems, including ghers, ponds, and crab points have been changing in terms of the uses and intensity of management, and suffering from climate change impacts as well. By means of six focus groups with 50 participants total, and validated by expert consultations, we conduct an analysis to understand the main perceived impacts from climate and human activities; and the adaptation responses from the aquatic system livelihoods. We find that biodiversity has decreased drastically, while farmed species have increased and shrimp gher farming turned more intensive becoming the main source of income. All these changes have important implications for food supply in the region and environmental sustainability. Dramatic responses taken in the communities include exit the fisheries and migration, and more adaptive responses include species diversification, crab fattening and working more on the pond and gher infrastructure. This study evidences the results of the combination of multiple stressors in productive systems and the barriers to adaptation in aquatic ecosystem dependent communities.