Projecting the Health and Economic Burden of Cardiovascular Disease Among People with Type 2 Diabetes, 2022-2031

Prevalence of very high cardiovascular disease risk in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: A population-based cross-sectional screening study

AIM

The 2019 ESC/EASD guidelines categorize cardiovascular disease risk (CVD) in patients with diabetes mellitus (DM). Assessing CVD risk is necessary to identify individuals at very high risk of CVD, enabling tailored and precise intervention for this high-risk population. This study aims to evaluate the severity of a very high risk for CVD stratification among patients with type 2 DM (T2DM) across different regions in China.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional screening study from 1 January 2020 to 30 December 2022. Disease duration, body mass index (BMI), targeted organ damage, such as atherosclerotic heart disease, proteinuria, impaired renal function, left ventricular hypertrophy, retinopathy and known CVD risk factors, were collected from diabetic patients by professionally trained physicians. The risk of CV in patients with DM was categorized into two groups: very high risk and others, according to the 2019 ESC/EASD guidelines.

RESULTS

In total, 1 870 720 participants from 1669 hospitals in 30 provinces of China, excluding Tibet, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao, were enrolled from 2020 to 2022, among whom 67.50% of patients with T2DM were at very high risk for CVD. The proportions of very high-risk T2DM were higher in Northeast China (75.82%), Central China (73.65%) and Southwest China (72.66%), while the lowest prevalence of very high-risk T2DM was found in Southern China (60.15%). The multivariate binary logistic regression analyses suggested that the category of very high risk for CVD is associated with age [odds ratio (OR) = 1.04; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.04-1.04; p < .0001], BMI (OR = 1.07; 95% CI: 1.07-1.07; p < .0001), duration of DM (OR = 1.05; 95% CI: 1.05-1.05; p < .0001), hypertension (OR = 3.75; 95% CI: 3.72-3.78; p < .0001), dyslipidaemia (OR = 5.22; 95% CI: 5.18-5.27; p < .0001) and smoking (OR = 2.92; 95% CI: 2.89-2.95; p < .0001).

CONCLUSIONS

This study represented the largest observational study of CVD risk assessment in patients with T2DM in China. The CVD risk situation of patients with diabetes in China is critical, and comprehensive control and management of CVD risk factors, such as hypertension, BMI and dyslipidaemia, in patients with DM need to be strengthened in patients with T2DM in China.

Cost-effectiveness of lowering systolic blood pressure in reducing cardiovascular disease burden in Australia

AIM

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) remain a leading global cause of death. This research examines the impact of lowering systolic blood pressure (SBP) on reducing CVD prevalence. It also assesses the cost-effectiveness of such interventions from a healthcare perspective.

METHODS

A synthesis matrix was created to analyse CVD risk factors (SBP, smoking, diabetes, and cholesterol), identifying SBP as the most impactful modifiable risk factor. We utilised validated health economic model which incorporates pooled cohort risk equations to predict the 10-year risk of the first CVD event, factoring in participants' gender, age, SBP, cholesterol levels, diabetes, and smoking status. The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), measured in costs per quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and years of life lived. In a hypothetical scenario, we reduced SBP by 20 % in participants with levels ≥140 mmHg, based on the 2016 Hypertension Management Guide (National Heart Foundation of Australia). A 5 % discount rate was applied to all costs and outcomes.

RESULTS

After reducing SBP by 20 % in participants with levels ≥140 mmHg, we observed a decrease in CVD deaths by 4756 cases (1.21 %) and non-fatal CVD events by 7877 cases (0.77 %). Post-intervention, there was an increase in years of life lived and QALYs experienced by 26,252 years (0.03 %) and 23,928 years (0.03 %), respectively. Acute and chronic costs also decreased, with acute event costs reduced by AUD 24,437,625 (0.28 %) and chronic costs by AUD 18,544,776 (0.71 %). Hypothetical scenario was found to be dominant (cost-saving).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results demonstrate that reducing SBP at the population level is cost-saving and has a significant positive impact on cardiovascular outcomes and related costs for those at risk of CVD.

Impact of Smoking Reduction Scenarios on the Burden of Myocardial Infarction in the French Population Until 2035

Aim

Myocardial infarction (MI) is a cardiovascular disease caused by necrosis of the myocardium, which places a heavy burden on patients. In France, the proportion of daily smokers remains high, reaching at 25.5% in 2020. We evaluated the impact of smoking reduction scenarios on the projection of MI prevalence, mean age of incident cases and number of MI prevented cases until 2035.

Methods and Results

The French government has introduced smoking cessation policies that have led to an annual decrease in smoking prevalence. Based on this annual decline, we implemented three scenarios (SC) simulating an annual decrease in the proportion of smokers aged over 35 (SC1: 1%, ie, natural evolution without intervention, SC2: 2%, SC3: 9.87%) and a fourth scenario (SC4) in which there is a complete discontinuation of smoking from 2024 onwards using MI hospitalization and demographic data, estimations for the proportion of daily smokers between 35 and 95 years and multi-state models. Between 2023 and 2035, MI prevalence increased from 3.18% to 4.23% in males and from 1.00% to 1.46% in females under SC1. MI prevalence was equal to 4.21%, 4.06%, and 3.82% in males and 1.45%, 1.40%, and 1.34% in females in 2035 according to SC2, SC3, and SC4, respectively. Compared with SC1, 0.68% MI cases would be prevented with SC2, 4.52% with SC3 and 10.34% with SC4, with almost half of cases being prevented before 65 years of age. The increase in the mean age of MI incident cases ranged from 3 to 4 years among males and from 1 to 2 years among females.

Conclusion

While reducing tobacco use could substantially reduce the number of MI cases prevented, its prevalence would continue to increase due to the ageing population. An integrated prevention strategy that includes the leading cardiovascular risk factors should more efficiently reduce the future burden of MI.

Societal health and economic burden of cardiovascular diseases in the population with type 2 diabetes in Qatar. A 10-year forecasting model

AIMS

To predict the future health and economic burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Qatar.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A dynamic multistate model was designed to simulate the progression of fatal and non-fatal CVD events among people with T2D in Qatar aged 40-79 years. First CVD events [i.e. myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke] were calculated via the 2013 Pooled Cohort Equation, while recurrent CVD events were sourced from the REACH registry. Key model outcomes were fatal and non-fatal MI and stroke, years of life lived, quality-adjusted life years, total direct medical costs and total productivity loss costs. Utility and cost model inputs were drawn from published sources. The model adopted a Qatari societal perspective. Sensitivity analyses were performed to test the robustness of estimates.

RESULTS

Over 10 years among people with T2D, model estimates 108 195 [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 104 249-112 172] non-fatal MIs, 62 366 (95% UI 60 283-65 520) non-fatal strokes and 14 612 (95% UI 14 472-14 744) CVD deaths. The T2D population accrued 4 786 605 (95% UI 4 743 454, 4 858 705) total years of life lived and 3 781 833 (95% UI 3 724 718-3 830 669) total quality-adjusted life years. Direct costs accounted for 57.85% of the total costs, with a projection of QAR41.60 billion (US$11.40 billion) [95% UI 7.53-147.40 billion (US$2.06-40.38 billion)], while the total indirect costs were expected to exceed QAR30.31 billion (US$8.30 billion) [95% UI 1.07-162.60 billion (US$292.05 million-44.55 billion)].

CONCLUSIONS

The findings suggest a significant economic and health burden of CVD among people with T2D in Qatar and highlight the need for more enhanced preventive strategies targeting this population group.

Cost‑effectiveness of add‑on dapagliflozin for heart failure with reduced ejection fraction patients without diabetes

AIM

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin added to standard of care (SoC) versus SoC in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and without type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients from the Qatari healthcare perspective.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A lifetime Markov model was developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of adding dapagliflozin to SoC based on the findings of Petrie et al. 2020, which were based on the DAPA-HF trial. The model was constructed based on four health states: "alive with no event", "urgent visit for heart failure", "hospitalization for heart failure", and "dead". The model considered 1,000 hypothetical HFrEF and without T2DM patients using 3-month cycles over a lifetime horizon. The outcome of interest was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per quality-adjusted life-year gained (QALY) and years of life lived (YLL). Utility and cost data were obtained from published sources. A scenario analysis was performed to replace the transition probabilities of events in people without T2DM with the transition probabilities of events irrespective of T2DM status, based on findings of the DAPA-HF trial. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to confirm the robustness of the conclusion.

RESULTS

Adding dapagliflozin to SoC was estimated to dominate SoC alone, resulting in 0.6 QALY and 0.8 YLL, at a cost saving of QAR771 (USD211) per person compared with SoC alone, with total healthcare costs of QAR42,413 (USD 11,620) versus 43,184 (USD11,831) per person, respectively. When replacing the transition probabilities of events in people without T2DM with the transition probabilities of events in people irrespective of T2DM status, dapagliflozin was cost-effective at ICER of QAR5,212 (USD1,428) per QALY gained and QAR3,880 (USD1,063) per YLL. In the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, dapagliflozin combined with SoC was cost saving in over 49% of the cases and cost-effective in over 43% of the simulated cases against QALYs gained and YLL.

LIMITATIONS

Data from clinical trials were used instead of local data, which may limit the local relevance. However, evidence from the local Qatari population is lacking. Also, indirect costs were not included due to a paucity of available data.

CONCLUSIONS

Adding dapagliflozin to SoC is likely to be a cost-saving therapy for patients with HFrEF and without T2DM in Qatar.

Cost-Effectiveness of Newer Antidiabetic Drugs as Second-Line Treatment for Type 2 Diabetes: A Systematic Review

INTRODUCTION

Evidence from cardiovascular outcome trials (CVOTs) for newer antidiabetic drugs is increasingly influencing revised recommendations for second-line therapy in type 2 diabetes (T2D). This systematic review aimed to compare the cost-effectiveness of newer antidiabetic drugs specified as sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor (SGLT2i), glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA), and dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitor (DPP-4i) for T2D in a second-line setting.

METHODS

A systematic review was conducted following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews (PRISMA) guidelines, and all relevant published studies were searched comprehensively in electronic databases, including PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and International Health Technology Assessment database published from April 2023. The quality of the included studies was evaluated using Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) 2022 reporting checklists.

RESULTS

We included 28 studies that met the inclusion criteria. Overall reporting of the identified studies largely met CHEERS 2022 recommendations. The CORE and Cardiff models were the most frequently utilized for pharmacoeconomic evaluation in T2D. Four studies consistently discovered that SGLT2i was more cost-effective than GLP-1RA in T2D who were not adequately controlled by metformin monotherapy. Four studies compared GLP-1RA with DPP-4i, sufonylurea (SU), or insulin. Except for one that demonstrated SU was cost-effective, all were GLP-1RA. Five studies revealed that SGLT2i was more cost-effective than DPP-4i or SU. Eleven studies indicated that DPP-4i was more cost-effective than traditional antidiabetic drugs. Four additional studies explored the cost-effectiveness of various antidiabetic drugs as second-line options, indicating that SU, SGLT2i, or meglitinides were more economically advantageous. The most common driven factors were the cost of new antidiabetic drugs.

CONCLUSION

Newer antidiabetic drugs as second line are the cost-effective option for T2D from the cost-effectiveness perspective, especially SGLT2i.