The microbial food web in the European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model

Progress and challenges in coupled hydrodynamic-ecological estuarine modeling

Numerical modeling has emerged over the last several decades as a widely accepted tool for investigations in environmental sciences. In estuarine research, hydrodynamic and ecological models have moved along parallel tracks with regard to complexity, refinement, computational power, and incorporation of uncertainty. Coupled hydrodynamic-ecological models have been used to assess ecosystem processes and interactions, simulate future scenarios, and evaluate remedial actions in response to eutrophication, habitat loss, and freshwater diversion. The need to couple hydrodynamic and ecological models to address research and management questions is clear, because dynamic feedbacks between biotic and physical processes are critical interactions within ecosystems. In this review we present historical and modern perspectives on estuarine hydrodynamic and ecological modeling, consider model limitations, and address aspects of model linkage, skill assessment, and complexity. We discuss the balance between spatial and temporal resolution and present examples using different spatiotemporal scales. Finally, we recommend future lines of inquiry, approaches to balance complexity and uncertainty, and model transparency and utility. It is idealistic to think we can pursue a "theory of everything" for estuarine models, but recent advances suggest that models for both scientific investigations and management applications will continue to improve in terms of realism, precision, and accuracy.

Diversity, functional similarity, and top-down control drive synchronization and the reliability of ecosystem function

The concept that diversity promotes reliability of ecosystem function depends on the pattern that community-level biomass shows lower temporal variability than species-level biomasses. However, this pattern is not universal, as it relies on compensatory or independent species dynamics. When in contrast within-trophic level synchronization occurs, variability of community biomass will approach population-level variability. Current knowledge fails to integrate how species richness, functional distance between species, and the relative importance of predation and competition combine to drive synchronization at different trophic levels. Here we clarify these mechanisms. Intense competition promotes compensatory dynamics in prey, but predators may at the same time increasingly synchronize, under increasing species richness and functional similarity. In contrast, predators and prey both show perfect synchronization under strong top-down control, which is promoted by a combination of low functional distance and high net growth potential of predators. Under such conditions, community-level biomass variability peaks, with major negative consequences for reliability of ecosystem function.

Modelling the phytoplankton dynamics in a nutrient-rich solar saltern pond: predicting the impact of restoration and climate change

An ecological model for the solar saltern of Sfax (Tunisia) was established and validated by comparing simulation results to observed data relative to horizontal distributions of temperature, nutrients and phytoplankton biomass. Sensitivity analysis was performed in order to assess the influence of the main ecological model parameters. First applied at the saltern's pond A1, the model was calibrated with field data measured over 4 years of study (from 2000 to 2003), which allowed an evaluation of parameters such as maximum growth rate of phytoplankton, optimal growth temperature and constant of half saturation for P/N assimilation by phytoplankton. Simulation results showed that the model allowed us to predict realistic phytoplankton variations of the study area, though we were unable to accurately reproduce the nutrient variation. The model was then applied to simulations of the impact of changes in phytoplankton biomass through scenarios such as hypothetic climate changes and saltern restoration.

Internally driven alternation of functional traits in a multispecies predator-prey system

The individual functional traits of different species play a key role for ecosystem function in aquatic and terrestrial systems. We modeled a multispecies predator-prey system with functionally different predator and prey species based on observations of the community dynamics of ciliates and their algal prey in Lake Constance. The model accounted for differences in predator feeding preferences and prey susceptibility to predation, and for the respective trade-offs. A low food demand of the predator was connected to a high food selectivity, and a high growth rate of the prey was connected to a high vulnerability to grazing. The data and the model did not show standard uniform predator-prey cycles, but revealed both complex dynamics and a coexistence of predator and prey at high biomass levels. These dynamics resulted from internally driven alternations in species densities and involved compensatory dynamics between functionally different species. Functional diversity allowed for ongoing adaptation of the predator and prey communities to changing environmental conditions such as food composition and grazing pressure. The trade-offs determined whether compensatory or synchronous dynamics occurred which influence the variability at the community level. Compensatory dynamics were promoted by a joint carrying capacity linking the different prey species which is particularly relevant at high prey biomasses, i.e., when grazers are less efficient. In contrast, synchronization was enhanced by the coupling of the different predator and prey species via common feeding links, e.g., by a high grazing pressure of a nonselective predator. The communities had to be functionally diverse in terms of their trade-offs and their traits to yield compensatory dynamics. Rather similar predator species tended to cycle synchronously, whereas profoundly different species did not coexist. Compensatory dynamics at the community level thus required intermediately strong tradeoffs for functional traits in both predators and their prey.

Assessing marine ecosystem response to nutrient inputs

The response of the Pagasitikos Gulf to enrichment caused by run-off fertilizers and the development and evolution of harmful algal blooms is investigated through ecosystem modelling. A standard generic complex model has been developed to describe the ecosystem processes of Pagasitikos and has been validated with in situ data. Additionally external nutrient fluxes have been assimilated and incorporated into the ecosystem dynamics. The investigation of spatial effects due to nutrient enrichment is investigated along a North-South transect. When externally forced the model successfully assimilates the external river inputs producing nutrient and chlorophyll-a concentrations, which are in good agreement with the in situ data. The nutrient inputs result in a more stable ecosystem at the north part of the Gulf and in the development of eutrophic conditions. The changes in the ecosystem functioning with emphasis on the nutrient cycling, the increase of primary production, and the modes of operation are investigated and discussed.