Speed behaviour upon approaching freeway curves

"I did not see that coming": A latent variable structural equation model for understanding the effect of road predictability on crashes along horizontal curves

Driver anticipation plays a crucial role in crashes along horizontal curves. Anticipation is related to road predictability and can be influenced by roadway geometric design. Therefore, it is essential to understand which geometric design elements can influence anticipation and cause the road to be (un)predictable. This exercise, however, is not straightforward because anticipation is individual-specific whereas road geometric design is location-specific; anticipation is latent and measuring it may not be trivial; anticipation may have several stages from the preceding tangent until the midst of the curve; and not all drivers anticipate in the same way and thus there may well be unobserved heterogeneity in the effect of anticipation on crash risk. Despite methodological advancements in crash risk modelling, there is no econometric model that can adequately explain the above complexities. This study aims to fill this gap by developing an econometric model with a new latent variable, named 'predictability' that is measured by individual-specific driving behaviour indicators and predicted by location-specific road geometric factors. The model is specified with random parameters to account for unobserved heterogeneity and is empirically tested by a unique dataset including detailed geometric design and driver behaviour data obtained for 156 curves in the Netherlands. Results indicate that higher exposure and uphill vertical grade are associated with increased likelihood of vehicle crashes along horizontal curves, whereas adequate superelevation and higher predictability are associated with decreased likelihood of those crashes. Pavement friction influences this likelihood too but it has varied effects. Road predictability is influenced by the differences in angle of horizontal curves, vertical grades, and width of consecutive road segments.

Bayesian spatial correlation, heterogeneity and spillover effect modeling for speed mean and variance on urban road networks

Analyzing speed mean and variance is vital to safety management in urban roadway networks. However, modeling speed mean and variance on structured roads could be influenced by the spatial effects, which are rarely addressed in the existing studies. The inadequacy may lead to biased conclusions when considering vehicle speed as a surrogate safety measure. The current study focuses on developing a Bayesian modeling approach with three types of spatial effects, i.e., spatial correlation, spatial heterogeneity, and spillover effect. To capture the spatial correlation, the study employs the intrinsic conditional autoregressive (ICAR) models, spatial lag models (SLM), and spatial error models (SEM). Spatial heterogeneity and spillover effect are considered by the random parameters approach and spatially lagged covariates (SLCs). Speed data are collected from the float cars running on 134 urban arterials in Chengdu, China. The results indicate that the random parameters ICAR model with SLCs (RPICAR-SLC) outperforms others in terms of goodness-of-fit, accuracy, and efficiency for modeling speed mean, while the random parameters ICAR model (RPICAR) is the best for modeling speed variance. Moreover, RPICAR-SLC and RPICAR models are beneficial to address spatial correlation of residuals, explaining the unobserved influence among the observations, and are less likely to cause biased or overestimated parameters. The study also discusses how traffic conditions, road characteristics, traffic management strategies, and facilities on roadway networks influence speed mean and variance. The findings highlight the importance of multi-type spatial effects on modeling speed mean and variance along the structured roadways.

Developing a More Reliable Aerial Photography-Based Method for Acquiring Freeway Traffic Data

Due to the widespread use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in remote sensing, there are fully developed techniques for extracting vehicle speed and trajectory data from aerial video, using either a traditional method based on optical features or a deep learning method; however, there are few papers that discuss how to solve the issue of video shaking, and existing vehicle data are rarely linked to lane lines. To address the deficiencies in current research, in this study, we formulated a more reliable method for real traffic data acquisition that outperforms the traditional methods in terms of data accuracy and integrity. First, this method implements the scale-invariant feature transform (SIFT) algorithm to detect, describe, and match local features acquired from high-altitude fixed-point aerial photographs. Second, it applies “you only look once” version 5 (YOLOv5) and deep simple online and real-time tracking (DeepSORT) to detect and track moving vehicles. Next, it leverages the developed Python program to acquire data on vehicle speed and distance (to the marked reference line). The results show that this method achieved over 95% accuracy in speed detection and less than 20 cm tolerance in vehicle trajectory mapping. This method also addresses common problems involving the lack of quality aerial photographic data and accuracy in lane line recognition. Finally, this approach can be used to establish a Frenet coordinate system, which can further decipher driving behaviors and road traffic safety.