Use of interrupted time series analysis in evaluating health care quality improvements

Care Quality and Equity in Health Centers During and After the COVID-19 Pandemic

INTRODUCTION

Federally Qualified Community Health Centers (FQHCs) are on the frontline of efforts to improve healthcare equity and reduce disparities exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. This study assesses the provision and equity of preventive care and chronic disease management by FQHCs before, during, and after the pandemic.

METHODS

Using electronic health record data from 210 FQHCs nationwide and employing segmented regression in an interrupted time series design, preventive screening and chronic disease management were assessed for 939,053 patients from 2019 to 2022. Care measures included cancer screenings, blood pressure control, diabetes control, and childhood immunizations; patient-level factors including race and ethnicity, language preference, and multimorbidity status were analyzed for equitable care provision. Analyses were conducted in 2023-2024.

RESULTS

Cancer screening rates and blood pressure control initially declined after the onset of the pandemic but later rebounded, while diabetes control showed a slight increase, later stabilizing. Racial and ethnic disparities persisted, with Asian individuals having a higher prevalence of screenings and blood pressure control, and Black/African American individuals facing a lower prevalence for most screenings but a higher prevalence for cervical cancer screening. Hispanic/Latino individuals had a higher prevalence of various screenings and diabetes control. Disparities persisted for Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islander and American Indian/Alaska Native individuals and were observed based on language and multimorbidity status.

CONCLUSIONS

While preventive screening and chronic disease management in FQHCs have largely rebounded to pre-pandemic levels following an initial decline, persistent disparities highlight the need for targeted interventions to support FQHCs in addressing healthcare inequities.

Trends in youth acute care hospital visits for anxiety and depression in Illinois

PURPOSE

This study analyzes the trajectory of youth emergency department or inpatient hospital visits for depression or anxiety in Illinois before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

We analyze emergency department (ED) outpatient visits, direct admissions, and ED admissions by patients ages 5-19 years coded for depression or anxiety disorders from 2016 through June 2023 with data from the Illinois Hospital Association COMPdata database. We analyze changes in visit rates by patient sociodemographic and clinical characteristics, hospital volume and type, and census zip code measures of poverty and social vulnerability. Interrupted times series analysis was used to test the significance of differences in level and trends between 51 pre-pandemic months and 39 during-pandemic months.

RESULTS

There were 250,648 visits to 232 Illinois hospitals. After large immediate pandemic decreases there was an estimated -12.0 per-month (p = 0.003, 95% CI -19.8-4.1) decrease in male visits and a - 13.1 (p = 0.07, 95% CI -27 -1) per-month decrease in female visits in the during-pandemic relative to the pre-pandemic period. The reduction was greatest for outpatient ED visits, for males, for age 5-9 and 15-19 years patients, for smaller community hospitals, and for patients from the poorest and most vulnerable zip code areas.

CONCLUSIONS

llinois youth depression and anxiety hospital visit rates declined significantly after the pandemic shutdown and remained stable into 2023 at levels below 2016-2019 rates. Further progress will require both clinical innovations and effective prevention grounded in a better understanding of the cultural roots of youth mental health.

Mental and behavioral disorders related to work in Brazil: temporal trends and the impact of the Social Security Technical Nexus

This article aimed to assess the temporal trend of work-related mental and behavioral disorders in Brazil, as well as to measure the effect of changes in the implementation of the Social Security Technical Nexus (NTP, acronym in Portuguese) on the incidence of these disorders among beneficiaries of the General Social Security System (RGPS, acronym in Portuguese). It is an analysis of time series and interrupted time series with data from the Brazilian Ministry of Social Security information system on cases of work-related mental and behavioral disorders from 2003 to 2019. The Prais-Winsten method was employed to calculate the annual percent change (APC) of the incidence rates for the conditions under study. The average incidence of work-related mental and behavioral disorders was 35.48 per 100,000 RGPS links during the period 2003-2019, with an increasing trend (APC = 9.67%; p = 0.033) for Brazil. Before the implementation of changes in the NTP (2003-2007), this value was 15.59, with an increasing trend (APC = 29.28%; p < 0.001), and it more than doubled (43.77) after the RGPS modified the way of establishing the nexus between illness and work (2008-2019). The post-NTP trend for work-related mental and behavioral disorders was a decrease in the country (APC = -23.73%; p < 0.001), a pattern that was repeated for all regions of the country. The findings suggest that the changes in the way of establishing the NTP between illness and work represented an advancement in the system of recording and notifying work-related mental and behavioral disorders in Brazil.

Stillbirth rates following the change in definition of fetal mortality in Quebec

OBJECTIVES

In 2019, Quebec changed its stillbirth definition to include fetal deaths at 20 weeks gestation or more. Previously, the criterion was a minimum birth weight of 500 g. We assessed the impact of the new definition on stillbirth rates.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective study of stillbirth rates between 2010 and 2021 in Quebec. The exposure consisted of the period during the new definition versus the preceding period. We assessed how the new definition affected stillbirth rates using interrupted time series regression, and compared the period during the new definition with the preceding period using prevalence differences and prevalence ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CI). We determined the extent to which fetuses at the limit of viability (under 500 g or 20‒23 weeks) accounted for any increase in rates.

RESULTS

Stillbirth rates went from 4.11 before the new definition to 6.76 per 1000 total births immediately after. Overall, the change in definition led to an absolute increase of 2.58 stillbirths per 1000 total births, for a prevalence ratio of 1.76 (95% CI 1.61‒1.92) compared with the preceding period. Fetal deaths due to congenital anomalies increased by 6.82 per 10,000 (95% CI 4.85‒8.78), while deaths due to pregnancy termination increased by 10.47 per 10,000 (95% CI 8.04‒12.89). Once the definition changed, 37% of stillbirths were under 500 g and 42% were between 20 and 23 weeks, with around half of these caused by congenital anomalies and terminations.

CONCLUSION

Stillbirth rates increased after the definition changed in Quebec, mainly due to congenital anomalies and pregnancy terminations.

Evaluation of the Safer Use of Antipsychotics in Youth Study on Population Level Antipsychotic Initiation: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis

Background: Antipsychotics carry a higher-risk profile than other psychotropic medications and may be prescribed for youth with conditions in which other first-line treatments are more appropriate. This study aimed to evaluate the population-level effect of the Safer Use of Antipsychotics in Youth (SUAY) trial, which aimed to reduce person-days of antipsychotic use among participants. Methods: We conducted an interrupted time series analysis using segmented regression to measure changes in prescribing trends of antipsychotic initiation rates pre-SUAY and post-SUAY trial at four U.S. health systems between 2013 and 2020. Results: In our overall model, adjusted for age and insurance type, antipsychotic initiation rates decreased by 0.73 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.30, 1.16, p = 0.002) prescriptions per 10,000 person-months before the SUAY trial. In the first quarter following the start of the trial, there was an immediate decrease in the rate of antipsychotic initiations of 6.57 (95% CI: 0.99, 12.15) prescriptions per 10,000 person-months. When comparing the posttrial period to the pretrial period, there was an increase of 1.09 (95% CI: 0.32, 1.85) prescriptions per 10,000 person-months, but the increasing rate in the posttrial period alone was not statistically significant (0.36 prescriptions per 10,000 person-months, 95% CI: -0.27, 0.99). Conclusion: The declining trend of antipsychotic initiation seen between 2013 and 2018 (pre-SUAY trial) may have naturally reached a level at which prescribing was clinically warranted and appropriate, resulting in a floor effect. The COVID-19 pandemic, which began in the final three quarters of the posttrial period, may also be related to increased antipsychotic medication initiation.

Differences in Cesarean Rates for Nulliparous, Term, Singleton, Vertex Births Among Racial and Ethnic Groups and States Before and After Stay-at-Home Orders During the COVID-19 Pandemic, United States, 2017-2021

OBJECTIVES

Evidence is limited on differences in cesarean rates for nulliparous, term, singleton, vertex (NTSV) births across racial and ethnic groups at the national and state level during the COVID-19 pandemic. We assessed changes in levels and trends of NTSV cesarean rates before and after stay-at-home orders (SAHOs) were implemented in the United States (1) overall, (2) by racial and ethnic groups, and (3) by 50 US states from January 2017 through December 2021.

METHODS

We used birth certificate data from 2017 through 2021, restricted to hospital births, to calculate monthly NTSV cesarean rates for the United States and for racial and ethnic groups and to calculate quarterly NTSV cesarean rates for the 50 states. We used interrupted time-series analysis to measure changes in NTSV cesarean rates before and after implementation of SAHOs (March 1 through May 31, 2020).

RESULTS

Of 6 022 552 NTSV hospital births, 1 579 645 (26.2%) were cesarean births. Before implementation of SAHOs, NTSV cesarean rates were declining in the United States overall; were declining among births to non-Hispanic Asian, non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, and non-Hispanic White women; and were declining in 6 states. During the first month of implementation of SAHOs in May 2020, monthly NTSV rates increased in the United States by 0.55%. Monthly NTSV rates increased by 1.20% among non-Hispanic Black women, 0.90% among Hispanic women, and 0.28% among non-Hispanic White women; quarterly NTSV rates increased in 6 states.

CONCLUSION

In addition to emergency preparedness planning, hospital monitoring, and reporting of NTSV cesarean rates to increase provider awareness, reallocation and prioritization of resources may help to identify potential strains on health care systems during public health emergencies such as the COVID-19 pandemic.

The effect of Montreal's supervised consumption sites on injection-related infections among people who inject drugs: An interrupted time series

BACKGROUND

Between June and November 2017, four supervised consumption sites (SCS) began operating in Montreal, Quebec. Earlier studies on SCS focused on examining their effects on blood-borne viral infections and overdose mortality. Our objective was to examine the effect of Montreal's SCS on the incidence, health service use and outcomes of injection-related infections (IRI) in people who inject drugs.

METHODS

We used Quebec's provincial administrative health data to identify people who inject drugs in Montreal and calculated the incidence of IRI in this population between December 2014 and December 2019. We conducted a retrospective, population-based interrupted time series to estimate the effect of Montreal's four SCS on the monthly incidence rates of IRI-related hospitalizations, emergency department (ED) visits, physician visits, and mortality. We also examined the effects of SCS on average length of IRI-related hospitalizations and incidence of hospitalizations involving surgery.

RESULTS

The average age of Montreal's people who inject drugs was 41.84 years, and 66.41% were male. After the implementation of SCS, there was a positive level change in the incidence of hospitalizations (0.97; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.26, 1.68) for IRI. There was also a significant post-intervention decline in hospitalization trends (-0.05; 95% CI: -0.08, -0.02), with modest trend changes in ED visits (-0.02; 95% CI: -0.05, 0.02). However, post-intervention changes in level (0.72; 95% CI: -3.85, 5.29) and trend (0.06; 95% CI: -0.23, 0.34) for physician visits remained limited. SCS had no effect on the average length of hospitalizations, but there was a decreasing post-intervention trend in hospitalizations involving surgery (-0.03; 95% CI: -0.06, 0.00).

CONCLUSION

Following the opening of the SCS, there was a moderate decline in the rate of hospitalizations to treat IRI, but the impact of the sites on the rate of physician visits remained limited. These findings suggest that SCS may mitigate the incidence of more serious and complicated IRI over time.

Testing a Novel Trauma-Informed Treatment for Anger and Aggression Following Military-Related Betrayal: Design and Methodology of a Clinical Trial

INTRODUCTION

Difficulty controlling anger is a common postdeployment problem in military personnel. Chronic and unregulated anger can lead to inappropriate aggression and is associated with behavioral health, legal, employment, and relationship problems for military service members. Military-related betrayal (e.g., military sexual assault, insider attacks) is experienced by over a quarter of combat service members and is associated with chronic anger and aggression. The high level of physical risk involved in military deployments make interconnectedness and trust in the military organization of utmost importance for survival during missions. While this has many protective functions, it also creates a vulnerability to experiencing military-related betrayal. Betrayal is related to chronic anger and aggression. Individuals with betrayal-related injuries express overgeneralized anger, irritability, blaming others, expectations of injustice, inability to forgive others, and ruminations of revenge. Current approaches to treating anger and aggression in military populations are inadequate. Standard anger treatment is not trauma-informed and does not consider the unique cultural context of anger and aggression in military populations, therefore is not well suited for anger stemming from military-related betrayal. While trauma-informed interventions targeting anger for military personnel exist, anger outcomes are mixed, and aggression and interpersonal functioning outcomes are poor. Also, these anger interventions are designed for patients with posttraumatic stress disorder. However, not all military-related betrayal meets the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition-5 definition of trauma, though it may still lead to chronic anger and aggression. As a result, these patients lack access to treatment that appropriately targets the function of their anger and aggression.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This manuscript describes rationale, design, and methodology of a pilot clinical trial examining Countering Chronic Anger and Aggression Related to Trauma and Transgressions (CART). CART is a transdiagnostic, transgression-focused intervention for military personnel who have experienced military-related betrayal, targeting chronic anger and aggression, and improving interpersonal relationships. The pilot study will use an interrupted timeseries design, where participants are randomized to a 2-, 3-, or 4-week minimal contact waitlist before starting treatment. This design maximizes the sample size so that all participants receive the treatment and act as their own control, while maintaining a robust design via stepped randomization. This trial aims to (1) test the acceptability and feasibility of CART, (2) test whether CART reduces anger and aggression in military personnel with a history of military-related betrayal, and (3) test whether CART improves interpersonal functioning.

RESULTS

The primary feasibility outcome will be the successful recruitment, enrollment, and initiation of 40 participants. Primary outcome measures include the Client Satisfaction Survey-8, the State Trait Anger Expression Inventory-2, Overt Aggression Scale-Modified, and the Inventory of Interpersonal Problems-Short Version.

CONCLUSION

If outcomes show feasibility, acceptability, and initial effectiveness, CART will demonstrate a culturally relevant treatment for chronic anger, the most frequent postdeployment problem, in a sample of active duty service members who have suffered a military betrayal. The DoD will also have an evidence-based treatment option focusing on interpersonal functioning, including relationships within the military and within families.

Evaluation of the Impact of a Less-Invasive Trunk and Pelvic Trauma Protocol on Mortality in Patients with Severe Injury by Interrupted Time-Series Analysis

Background and Objectives: Minimally invasive trauma management, including interventional radiology and non-operative approaches, has proven effective. Consequently, our hospital established a trauma IVR protocol called "Ohta Nishinouchi Hospital trauma protocol (ONH trauma protocol) in 2013, mainly for trunk trauma. However, the efficacy of the ONH trauma protocol has remained unverified. We aimed to assess the protocol's impact using interrupted time-series analysis (ITSA). Materials and Methods: This retrospective cohort study was conducted at Ohta Nishinouchi hospital, a tertiary emergency hospital, from January 2004 to December 2019. We included patients aged ≥ 18 years who presented to our institution due to severe trauma characterized by an Abbreviated Injury Scale of ≥3 in any region. The primary outcome was the incidence of in-hospital deaths per 100 transported patients with trauma. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was conducted with in-hospital mortality as the outcome, with no exposure before protocol implementation and with exposure after protocol implementation. Results: Overall, 4558 patients were included in the analysis. The ITSA showed no significant change in in-hospital deaths after protocol induction (level change -1.49, 95% confidence interval (CI) -4.82 to 1.84, p = 0.39; trend change -0.044, 95% CI -0.22 to 0.14, p = 0.63). However, the logistic regression analysis revealed a reduced mortality effect following protocol induction (odds ratio: 0.50, 95% CI: 0.37 to 0.66, p < 0.01, average marginal effects: -3.2%, 95% CI: -4.5 to -2.0, p < 0.01). Conclusions: The ITSA showed no association between the protocol and mortality. However, before-and-after testing revealed a positive impact on mortality. A comprehensive analysis, including ITSA, is recommended over before-and-after comparisons to assess the impact of the protocol.

The performance of interrupted time series designs with a limited number of time points: Learning losses due to school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic

Interrupted time series (ITS) designs are increasingly used for estimating the effect of shocks in natural experiments. Currently, ITS designs are often used in scenarios with many time points and simple data structures. This research investigates the performance of ITS designs when the number of time points is limited and with complex data structures. Using a Monte Carlo simulation study, we empirically derive the performance-in terms of power, bias and precision- of the ITS design. Scenarios are considered with multiple interventions, a low number of time points and different effect sizes based on a motivating example of the learning loss due to COVID school closures. The results of the simulation study show the power of the step change depends mostly on the sample size, while the power of the slope change depends on the number of time points. In the basic scenario, with both a step and a slope change and an effect size of 30% of the pre-intervention slope, the required sample size for detecting a step change is 1,100 with a minimum of twelve time points. For detecting a slope change the required sample size decreases to 500 with eight time points. To decide if there is enough power researchers should inspect their data, hypothesize about effect sizes and consider an appropriate model before applying an ITS design to their research. This paper contributes to the field of methodology in two ways. Firstly, the motivation example showcases the difficulty of employing ITS designs in cases which do not adhere to a single intervention. Secondly, models are proposed for more difficult ITS designs and their performance is tested.

The associations of supervised consumption services with the rates of opioid-related mortality and morbidity outcomes at the public health unit level in Ontario (Canada): A controlled interrupted time-series analysis

INTRODUCTION

This study aimed to assess the impact of the implementation of legally sanctioned supervised consumption sites (SCS) in the Canadian province of Ontario on opioid-related deaths, emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalisations at the public health unit (PHU) level.

METHODS

Monthly rates per 100,000 population of opioid-related deaths, ED visits and hospitalisations for PHUs in Ontario between December 2013 and March 2022 were collected. Aggregated and individual analyses of PHUs with one or more SCS were conducted, with PHUs that instituted an SCS being matched to control units that did not. Autoregressive integrated moving average models were used to estimate the impact of SCS implementation on opioid-related deaths, ED visits and hospitalisations.

RESULTS

Twenty-one legally sanctioned SCS were implemented across nine PHUs in Ontario during the study period. Interrupted time series analyses showed no statistically significant changes in opioid-related death rates in aggregated analyses of intervention PHUs (increase of 0.02 deaths/100,000 population/month; p = 0.27). Control PHUs saw a significant increase of 0.38 deaths/100,000 population/month; p < 0.001. No statistically significant changes were observed in the rates of opioid-related ED visits in intervention PHUs (decrease of 0.61 visits/100,000 population/month; p = 0.39) or controls (increase of 0.403 visits; p = 0.76). No statistically significant changes to the rates of opioid-related hospitalisations were observed in intervention PHUs (0 hospitalisations/100,000 population/month; p = 0.98) or controls (decrease of 0.05 hospitalisations; p = 0.95).

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

This study did not find significant mortality or morbidity effects associated with SCS availability at the population level in Ontario. In the context of a highly toxic drug supply, additional interventions will be required to reduce opioid-related harms.

Assessment of the impact of Uber system implementation on mortality from traffic injuries in Brazilian capital cities

The rapid expansion of Uber Technologies, Inc.'s ride-sharing, courier service, and food delivery system and e-hailing applications has been transforming the logistics network and urban mobility around the world. We aimed to evaluate the impact of the Uber system on traffic injury (TI) mortality during its implementation in Brazilian capital cities. A quasiexperimental design of interrupted time series was used. The monthly mortality rates for TI standardized by age were analyzed. The date of availability of the Uber app, specific to each capital, was considered the start date. Data from the Brazilian Mortality Information System and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics were used. For the data analysis, from an interrupted time-series design, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models with a transfer function were fitted. In 92.6% (n = 25) of Brazilian capitals, there was no impact of Uber system implementation, 12 months after the start of its activities, on TI mortality. A reduction in mortality from this cause was observed after the system was implemented in Belo Horizonte and Rio de Janeiro. The impact on TI mortality was progressive and continuous in both. More studies are needed to establish the factors associated with the inequalities observed in the impact of Uber system implementation between different locations and the heterogeneity of effects.

Evaluating Quality of Care for Patients with Asthma in the Readmission Penalty Era

Rationale: Asthma poses a significant burden for U.S. patients and health systems, yet inpatient care quality is understudied. National chronic obstructive lung disease (COPD) readmission policies may affect inpatient asthma care through hospital responses to these policies because of imprecise diagnosis and identification of patients with COPD and asthma. Objectives: Evaluate inpatient care quality for patients hospitalized with asthma and potential collateral effects of the Medicare COPD Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (HRRP). Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study of patients aged 18-54 years hospitalized for asthma across 924 U.S. hospitals (Premier Healthcare Database). Results: Care quality for patients with asthma was evaluated before HRRP implementation (n = 20,820; January 2010-September 2014) and after HRRP implementation (n = 26,885; October 2014-December 2018) using adherence to inpatient care guidelines (recommended, nonrecommended, and "ideal care" [all recommended with no nonrecommended care]). Between 2010 and 2018, at least 80% of patients received recommended care annually. Recommended care decreased similarly (rate of 0.02%/mo) after versus before HRRP (P = 0.8). Nonrecommended care decreased more rapidly after HRRP (rate of 0.29%/mo) versus before HRRP (rate of 0.17%/mo; P < 0.001), with changes driven largely by decreased antibiotic prescribing. Ideal care increased more rapidly after HRRP (rate of 0.25%/mo) versus before HRRP (rate of 0.17%/mo; P = 0.02), with changes driven largely by nonrecommended care improvements. Conclusions: Post-HRRP trends suggest asthma care improved with increased rates of guideline concordance in nonrecommended and ideal care. Although federal policies (e.g., HRRP) may have had positive collateral effects, such as with asthma care, parallel care efforts, including antibiotic stewardship, likely contributed to these improvements.

A Bayesian Interrupted Time Series framework for evaluating policy change on mental well-being: An application to England's welfare reform

Factors contributing to social inequalities are associated with negative mental health outcomes and disparities in mental well-being. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical controlled interrupted time series to evaluate the impact of policies on population well-being whilst accounting for spatial and temporal patterns. Using data from the UKs Household Longitudinal Study, we apply this framework to evaluate the impact of the UKs welfare reform implemented in the 2010s on the mental health of the participants, measured using the GHQ-12 index. Our findings indicate that the reform led to a 2.36% (95% CrI: 0.57%-4.37%) increase in the national GHQ-12 index in the exposed group, after adjustment for the control group. Moreover, the geographical areas that experienced the largest increase in the GHQ-12 index are from more disadvantage backgrounds than affluent backgrounds.

Impact of the US Food and Drug Administration warning regarding increased risk of aortic aneurysms or aortic dissections on fluoroquinolone prescribing trends

BACKGROUND

The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued a warning in December 2018 regarding an increased risk of aortic aneurysms and aortic dissections associated with fluoroquinolone (FQ) use. This warning specifically targeted older adults and patients with conditions such as hypertension, Marfan syndrome, Ehlers-Danlos syndrome, atherosclerosis, peripheral vascular disease and history of aneurysms.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the impact of the safety warning on prescribing trends of FQs in the targeted population.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study with an interrupted time series (ITS) analysis (January 2018-December 2019) used a 25% random sample of IQVIA PharMetrics® Plus for Academics health plan claims database. The impact of the warning on FQ utilisation was quantified among the targeted population and a non-targeted population.

RESULTS

From 2018 to 2019, both study populations saw a decrease in the year-over-year percent change of FQ prescriptions per 100 000 beneficiaries (-11%, from 14 227 to 12 662, targeted; -15%, from 5227 to 4446, non-targeted) and proportion of FQ use versus other antibiotics (from 15.6% to 13.8%, targeted; from 9.4% to 8%, non-targeted). In the targeted population, the ITS analysis did not show a significant trend change, a change in level or postwarning trend in the monthly rate of FQ prescriptions per 1000 beneficiaries. A positive trend change was observed in the non-targeted population (0.07, <0.01-0.13), but there were no significant changes in level or post-warning trend.

CONCLUSION

We did not find a change in FQ prescription rates after the warning. The utility of safety advisories as a primary tool for mitigating FQ use in high-risk populations should be revisited.

Implementation of the new acts on driving under the influence of alcohol and clinical outcomes for patients severely injured in road traffic crashes

OBJECTIVE

Driving under the influence (DUI) of alcohol is a major risk factor for fatal road traffic injuries (RTIs) worldwide. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between the implementation of new acts on DUI of alcohol and the clinical outcomes of patients with severe RTIs in Korea.

METHODS

This is a community-based cross-sectional study using a nationwide severe trauma registry in Korea. In 2018, 2 acts with the Yoon Chang-Ho Act (Yoon's Act) were passed to strengthen the punishment for drunk driving fatal RTIs (first Yoon's act) and lower the blood alcohol concentration limit to restrict driver's licenses (second Yoon's act). The first Yoon's act was implemented on December 18, 2018, and the second Yoon's act was implemented on June 25, 2019. The study periods were categorized as pre-Act-1, pre-Act-2, Act-1, and Act-2 according to the application of Yoon's Act, and the study outcome was in-hospital mortality. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was conducted to estimate the relationship of the new acts and in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

Among a total of 20,376 patients with severe RTIs and 7,928 patients (drivers) with RTIs (hereafter drivers), the in-hospital mortality rates were 20.8% and 17.0%, and alcohol-related RTIs accounted for 9.7% and 8.1%, respectively. Severe RTIs tended to increase with each period (25.5 cases/day, 24.5 cases/day, 26.8 cases/day, and 30.4 cases/day, P for trend <.01). In-hospital mortality significantly decreased during the Act-2 period compared to the pre-Act-2 period for all patients with severe RTIs (adjusted odds ratio = 0.54, 95% confidence interval 0.43-0.67) and drivers with RTIs (adjusted odds ratio = 0.50, 95% confidence interval 0.34-0.73).

CONCLUSIONS

Implementation of the new acts on DUI of alcohol was associated with lower odds for in-hospital mortality for patients with severe RTIs. Further studies are needed to evaluate the long-term impact of the new acts on reducing alcohol-related RTIs.

Evolution of an epidemic: Understanding the opioid epidemic in the United States and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on opioid-related mortality

We conduct this research with a two-fold aim: providing a quantitative analysis of the opioid epidemic in the United States (U.S.), and exploring the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on opioid-related mortality. The duration and persistence of the opioid epidemic lends itself to the need for an overarching analysis with extensive scope. Additionally, studying the ramifications of these concurrent severe public health crises is vital for informing policies to avoid preventable mortality. Using data from CDC WONDER, we consider opioid-related deaths grouped by Census Region spanning January 1999 to October 2022 inclusive, and later add on a demographic component with gender-stratification. Through the lens of key events in the opioid epidemic, we build an interrupted time series model to reveal statistically significant drivers of opioid-related mortality. We then employ a counterfactual to approximate trends in the absence of COVID-19, and estimate excess opioid-related deaths (defined as observed opioid-related deaths minus projected opioid-related deaths) associated with the pandemic. According to our model, the proliferation of fentanyl contributed to sustained increases in opioid-related death rates across three of the four U.S. census regions, corroborating existing knowledge in the field. Critically, each region has an immediate increase to its opioid-related monthly death rate of at least 0.31 deaths per 100,000 persons at the start of the pandemic, highlighting the nationwide knock-on effects of COVID-19. There are consistent positive deviations from the expected monthly opioid-related death rate and a sizable burden from cumulative excess opioid-related deaths, surpassing 60,000 additional deaths nationally from March 2020 to October 2022, ∼70% of which were male. These results suggest that robust, multi-faceted measures are even more important in light of the COVID-19 pandemic to prevent overdoses and educate users on the risks associated with potent synthetic opioids such as fentanyl.

Epidemiology of brief resolved unexplained events and impact of clinical practice guidelines in general and pediatric emergency departments

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to describe the incidence of brief resolved unexplained events (BRUEs) and compare the impact of a national clinical practice guideline (CPG) on admission and diagnostic testing practices between general and pediatric emergency departments (EDs).

METHODS

Using the Nationwide Emergency Department Sample for 2012-2019, we conducted a cross-sectional study of children <1 year of age with an International Classification of Diseases diagnostic code for BRUE. Population incidence rate was estimated using Centers for Disease Control and Prevention birth data. ED incidence rate was estimated for all ED encounters. We used interrupted time series to evaluate the associated impact of the CPG publication on the outcomes of ED disposition (discharge, admission, and transfer) and electrocardiogram (ECG) use.

RESULTS

Of 133,972 encounters for BRUE, 80.0% occurred in general EDs. BRUE population incidence was 4.28 per 1000 live births and the annual incidence remained stable (p = 0.19). BRUE ED incidence was 5.06 per 1000 infant ED encounters (p = 0.14). The impact of the BRUE CPG on admission rates was limited to pediatric EDs (level shift -23.3%, p = 0.002). Transfers from general EDs did not change with the CPG (level shift 2.2%, p = 0.17). After the CPG was published, ECGs increased by 13.7% in pediatric EDs (p = 0.005) but did not change in general EDs (level shift -0.2%, p = 0.82).

CONCLUSIONS

BRUEs remain a common pediatric problem at a population level and in EDs. Although a disproportionate number of infants present to general EDs, there is differential uptake of the CPG recommendations between pediatric and general EDs. These findings may support quality improvement opportunities aimed at improving care for these infants and decreasing unnecessary hospital admissions or transfers.

Maternal and perinatal health indicators in Brazil over a decade: assessing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and SARS-CoV-2 vaccination through interrupted time series analysis

Background

Few studies have evaluated the effects of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, on maternal and perinatal health at a populational level. We investigated maternal and perinatal health indicators in Brazil, focusing on the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, and SARS-CoV-2 vaccination campaign for pregnant women.

Methods

Utilizing interrupted time series analysis (January 2013-December 2022), we examined Maternal Mortality Ratio, Perinatal Mortality Rate, Preterm Birth Rate, Cesarean Section Rate, and other five indicators. Interruptions occurred at the pandemic's onset (March 2020) and pregnant women's vaccination (July 2021). Results were expressed as percent changes on time series' level and slope.

Findings

The COVID-19 onset led to immediate spikes in Maternal Mortality Ratio (33.37%) and Perinatal Mortality Rate (3.20%) (p < 0.05). From March 2020 to December 2022, Cesarean Section and Preterm Birth Rates exhibited upward trends, growing monthly at 0.13% and 0.23%, respectively (p < 0.05). Post start of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination (July 2021), Maternal Mortality Ratio (-34.10%) and Cesarean Section Rate (-1.87%) promptly declined (p < 0.05). Subsequently, we observed a monthly decrease of Maternal Mortality Ratio (-9.43%) and increase of Cesarean Section Rate (0.25%) (p < 0.05), while Perinatal Mortality Rate and Preterm Birth Rate showed a stationary pattern.

Interpretation

The pandemic worsened all analyzed health indicators. Despite improvements in Maternal Mortality Ratio, following the SARS-CoV-2 vaccination campaign for pregnant women, the other indicators continued to sustain altered patterns from the pre-pandemic period.

Funding

No funding.

Changes in inpatient brain arteriovenous malformation management in the United States following the ARUBA trial: analysis of an interrupted time series design

The November 2013 online publication of ARUBA, the first multi-institutional randomized controlled trial for unruptured brain arteriovenous malformations (AVMs), has sparked over 100 publications in protracted debates METHODS: This study sought to examine inpatient management patterns of brain AVMs from 2009 to 2016 and observe if changes in U.S. inpatient management were attributable to the ARUBA publication using interrupted time series of brain AVM studies from the National Inpatient Sample data 2009-2016. Outcomes of interest were use of embolization, surgery, combined embolization and microsurgery, radiotherapy, and observation during that admission. An interrupted time series design compared management trends before and after ARUBA. Segmented linear regression analysis tested for immediate and long-term impacts of ARUBA on management. RESULTS: Elective and asymptomatic patient admissions declined 2009-2016. In keeping with the ARUBA findings, observation for unruptured brain AVMs increased and microsurgery decreased. However, embolization, radiosurgery, and combined embolization and microsurgery also increased. For ruptured brain AVMs, treatment modality trends remained positive with even greater rates of observation, embolization, and combined embolization and microsurgery occurring after ARUBA (data on radiosurgery were scarce). None of the estimates for the change in trends were statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: The publication of ARUBA was associated with a decrease in microsurgery and increase in observation for unruptured brain AVMs in the US. However, inpatient radiotherapy, embolization, and combined embolization and surgery also increased, suggesting trends moved counter to ARUBA's conclusions. This analysis suggested that ARUBA had a small impact as clinicians rejected ARUBA's findings in managing unruptured brain AVMs.

The Impact of Immigration Policy Changes on Preterm Birth Rates in Texas: An Examination of Border and Nonborder Regions

BACKGROUND

Our study examined the acute and sustained impact of immigration policy changes announced in January 2017 on preterm birth (PTB) rates among Hispanic and non-Hispanic white women in Texas's border and nonborder regions.

METHODS

Using Texas birth certificate data for years 2008 through 2020, we used a multiple group interrupted time series approach to explore changes in PTB rates.

RESULTS

In the nonborder region, the PTB rate among Hispanic women of any race was 8.64% in 2008 and was stable each year before 2017 but increased by .29% (95% CI [.12, .46]) annually between 2017 and 2020. This effect remained statistically significant even when compared with that of non-Hispanic white women (p = .014). In the border areas, the PTB rate among Hispanic women of any race was 11.67% in 2008 and remained stable each year before and after 2017. No significant changes were observed when compared with that of non-Hispanic white women (p = .897). In Texas as a whole, the PTB rate among Hispanic women of any race was 10.16% in 2008 and declined by .07% (95% CI [-.16, -.03]) per year before 2017, but increased by .16% (95% CI [.05, .27]) annually between 2017 and 2020. The observed increase was not statistically significant when compared with that of non-Hispanic white women (p = .326).

CONCLUSIONS

The January 2017 immigration policies were associated with a sustained increase in PTB among Hispanic women in Texas's nonborder region, suggesting that geography plays an important role in perceptions of immigration enforcement. Future research should examine the impact of immigration policies on maternal and child health, considering geography and sociodemographic factors.

Effects of pay-for-performance based antimicrobial stewardship on antimicrobial consumption and expenditure: An interrupted time series analysis

Objectives

To evaluate the impact of pay-for-performance on antimicrobial consumption and antimicrobial expenditure in a large teaching hospital in Guangzhou, China.

Methods

We collected data from hospital information system from January 2018 through September 2022 in the inpatient wards. Antimicrobial consumption was evaluated using antibiotic use density (AUD) and antibiotic use rate (AUR). The economic impact of intervention was assessed by antimicrobial expenditure percentage. The data was analyzed using interrupted time series (ITS) analysis.

Results

Following the implementation of the intervention, immediate decreases in the level of AUD were observed in Department of Hematology Unit 3 (β = -66.93 DDDs/100PD, P = 0.002), Urology (β = -32.80 DDDs/100PD, P < 0.001), Gastrointestinal Surgery Unit 3 (β = -11.44 DDDs/100PD, P = 0.03), Cardiac Surgery (β = -14.30 DDDs/100PD, P = 0.01), ICU, Unit 2 (β = -81.91 DDDs/100PD, P = 0.02) and Cardiothoracic Surgery ICU (β = -41.52 DDDs/100PD, P = 0.05). Long-term downward trends in AUD were also identified in Organ Transplant Unit (β = -1.64 DDDs/100PD, P = 0.02). However, only Urology (β = -6.56 DDDs/100PD, P = 0.02) and Gastrointestinal Surgery Unit 3 (β = -8.50 %, P = 0.01) showed an immediate decrease in AUR, and long-term downward trends in AUR were observed in Pediatric ICU (β = -1.88 %, P = 0.05) and ICU Unit 1 (β = -0.55 %, P = 0.02).

Conclusion

This study demonstrates that the adoption of pay-for-performance effectively reduces antibiotic consumption in specific departments of a hospital in Guangzhou in the short term. However, it is important to recognize that the long-term impact of such interventions is often limited. Additionally, it should be noted that the overall effectiveness of the intervention across the entire hospital was not significant.

Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance in British Columbia, Canada: An interrupted time series study

We assessed the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance among individuals with HCV diagnosed with cirrhosis in British Columbia (BC), Canada. We used data from the British Columbia Hepatitis Testers Cohort (BC-HTC), including all individuals in the province tested for or diagnosed with HCV from 1 January 1990 to 31 December 2015, to assess HCC surveillance. To analyse the impact of the pandemic on HCC surveillance, we used pre-policy (January 2018 to February 2020) and post-policy (March to December 2020) periods. We conducted interrupted time series (ITS) analysis using a segmented linear regression model and included first-order autocorrelation terms. From January 2018 to December 2020, 6546 HCC screenings were performed among 3429 individuals with HCV and cirrhosis. The ITS model showed an immediate decrease in HCC screenings in March and April 2020, with an overall level change of -71 screenings [95% confidence interval (CI): -105.9, -18.9]. We observed a significant decrease in HCC surveillance among study participants, regardless of HCV treatment status and age group, with the sharpest decrease among untreated HCV patients. A recovery of HCC surveillance followed this decline, reflected in an increasing trend of 7.8 screenings (95% CI: 0.6, 13.5) per month during the post-policy period. There was no level or trend change in the number of individuals diagnosed with HCC. We observed a sharp decline in HCC surveillance among people living with HCV and cirrhosis in BC following the COVID-19 pandemic control measures. HCC screening returned to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2020.

Hospital accreditation in Mexico fails to improve the quality of healthcare: lessons from an impact evaluation

Healthcare quality in low- and middle-income countries poses a significant challenge, contributing to heightened mortality rates from treatable conditions. The accreditation of health facilities was part of the former health reform in Mexico, proposed as a mechanism to enhance healthcare quality. This study assesses the performance of hospital accreditation in Mexico, utilizing indicators of effectiveness, efficiency, and safety. Employing a longitudinal approach with controlled interrupted time series analysis (C-ITSA) and fixed effects panel analysis, administrative data from general hospitals in Mexico is scrutinized. Results reveal that hospital accreditation in Mexico fails to enhance healthcare quality and, disconcertingly, indicates deteriorating performance associated with increased hospital mortality. Amidst underfunded health services, the implemented accreditation model proves inadequately designed to uplift care quality. A fundamental redesign of the public hospital accreditation model is imperative, emphasizing incentives for structural enhancement and standardized processes. Addressing the critical challenge of improving care quality is urgent for Mexico's healthcare system, necessitating swift action to achieve effective access as a benchmark for universal healthcare coverage.

Impact of an improved outdoor space on people with dementia in a hospital unit

Introduction

Gardens and outdoor spaces are an important part of institutional environments for people with dementia. However, evidence regarding the benefits these spaces have for people with dementia is still limited. This paper presents the evaluation of the redevelopment of an inaccessible outdoor space into a therapeutic garden on a high dependency psychogeriatric unit in an acute hospital.

Method

A Mixed methods evaluation was undertaken. An interrupted time series analysis investigated the impact of the garden on falls and challenging behaviours of patients using routinely collected data. Perspectives of the redeveloped garden were captured through (a) a staff survey and (b) semi-structured interviews with families of patients.

Results

Rates of falls and challenging behaviours dropped at the time of the garden opening but showed increasing rates each month both before and after the garden opened. Most staff believed that the garden provided benefits for patients however limited staff time and concerns over patient safety were barriers to use. Families identified four main themes related to garden use including: (1) being outside (2) occupation and identity, (3) being stimulating, and (4) barriers and facilitators.

Conclusion

The garden was regarded positively by families and staff however, there were barriers that prevented it from being better utilised. Staff concerns over risk were not reflected in falls and challenging behaviour outcomes. Further research into how barriers to garden use may be overcome is justified.

Lung Cancer Screening Before and After a Multifaceted Electronic Health Record Intervention: A Nonrandomized Controlled Trial

Importance

Lung cancer is the deadliest cancer in the US. Early-stage lung cancer detection with lung cancer screening (LCS) through low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) improves outcomes.

Objective

To assess the association of a multifaceted clinical decision support intervention with rates of identification and completion of recommended LCS-related services.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This nonrandomized controlled trial used an interrupted time series design, including 3 study periods from August 24, 2019, to April 27, 2022: baseline (12 months), period 1 (11 months), and period 2 (9 months). Outcome changes were reported as shifts in the outcome level at the beginning of each period and changes in monthly trend (ie, slope). The study was conducted at primary care and pulmonary clinics at a health care system headquartered in Salt Lake City, Utah, among patients aged 55 to 80 years who had smoked 30 pack-years or more and were current smokers or had quit smoking in the past 15 years. Data were analyzed from September 2023 through February 2024.

Interventions

Interventions in period 1 included clinician-facing preventive care reminders, an electronic health record-integrated shared decision-making tool, and narrative LCS guidance provided in the LDCT ordering screen. Interventions in period 2 included the same clinician-facing interventions and patient-facing reminders for LCS discussion and LCS.

Main Outcome and Measure

The primary outcome was LCS care gap closure, defined as the identification and completion of recommended care services. LCS care gap closure could be achieved through LDCT completion, other chest CT completion, or LCS shared decision-making.

Results

The study included 1865 patients (median [IQR] age, 64 [60-70] years; 759 female [40.7%]). The clinician-facing intervention (period 1) was not associated with changes in level but was associated with an increase in slope of 2.6 percentage points (95% CI, 2.4-2.7 percentage points) per month in care gap closure through any means and 1.6 percentage points (95% CI, 1.4-1.8 percentage points) per month in closure through LDCT. In period 2, introduction of patient-facing reminders was associated with an immediate increase in care gap closure (2.3 percentage points; 95% CI, 1.0-3.6 percentage points) and closure through LDCT (2.4 percentage points; 95% CI, 0.9-3.9 percentage points) but was not associated with an increase in slope. The overall care gap closure rate was 175 of 1104 patients (15.9%) at the end of the baseline period vs 588 of 1255 patients (46.9%) at the end of period 2.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study, a multifaceted intervention was associated with an improvement in LCS care gap closure.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04498052.

Congenital anomalies during Covid-19: artifact of surveillance or a real TORCH?

Infections in the first trimester of pregnancy can be teratogenic, but the possibility that Covid-19 could lead to birth defects is unclear. We examined whether SARS-CoV-2 infection during pregnancy or exposure to pandemic conditions were associated with the risk of congenital anomalies. We carried out a retrospective study of 420,222 neonates born in Quebec, Canada in two time periods: prepandemic (January 1, 2017 to March 12, 2020) vs. pandemic (March 13, 2020 to March 31, 2022). We classified pandemic births as early (first trimester completed before the pandemic) or late (first trimester during the pandemic), and identified patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections during pregnancy. We applied (1) adjusted log-binomial regression models to assess the association between SARS-CoV-2 infection and congenital anomalies, and (2) autoregressive interrupted time series regression to analyze temporal trends in the monthly number of defects in all patients regardless of infection. In total, 29,263 newborns (7.0%) had a congenital anomaly. First trimester SARS-CoV-2 infections were not associated with a greater risk of birth defects compared with no infection (RR 1.07, 95% CI 0.59-1.95). However, births during the late pandemic period were more likely to be diagnosed with congenital microcephaly compared with prepandemic births (RR 1.44, 95% CI 1.21-1.71). Interrupted time series analysis confirmed that the frequency of microcephaly increased during the late pandemic period, whereas other anomalies did not. We conclude that Covid-19 is likely not teratogenic, but enhanced surveillance of anomalies among late pandemic births may have heightened the detection of infants with microcephaly.

Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Rollout on Hispanic and Non-Hispanic Admission and Mortality Trends: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis

BACKGROUND

Challenges with SARS-CoV-2 vaccine prioritization, access, and hesitancy have influenced vaccination uptake.

RESEARCH QUESTION

Was the impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine rollout on COVID-19 monthly admission and mortality trends different between Hispanic and non-Hispanic populations?

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

We used interrupted time series analysis to conduct an ancillary study of the Viral Infection and Respiratory Illness Universal Study registry supplemented by electronic health record data from five participating Mayo Clinic sites in Florida, Arizona, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. We included hospitalized patients with COVID-19 admitted between April 2020 and December 2021. Our primary outcome was the impact of vaccine rollout on admission trends. Our secondary outcome was the impact of vaccine rollout on mortality trends.

RESULTS

This interrupted time series analysis includes 6,442 patients. Vaccine rollout was associated with improved monthly hospital admission trends among both Hispanic and non-Hispanic patients. Among Hispanic patients, pre-vaccine rollout, monthly admissions increased by 12.9% (95% CI, 8.1%-17.9%). Immediately after vaccine rollout, patient admissions declined by -66.3% (95% CI, -75.6% to -53.9%). Post-vaccine rollout, monthly admissions increased by 3.7% (95% CI, 0.2%-7.3%). Among non-Hispanic patients, pre-vaccine rollout, monthly admissions increased by 35.8% (95% CI, 33.4%-38.1%). Immediately after vaccine rollout, patient admissions declined by -75.2% (95% CI, -77.6% to -72.7%). Post-vaccine rollout, monthly admissions increased by 5.6% (95% CI, 4.5%-6.7%). These pre-vaccine rollout admission trends were significantly different (P < .001). Post-vaccine rollout, the change in admission trend was significantly different (P < .001). The associated beneficial impact from vaccine rollout on monthly hospital admission trends among Hispanic patients was significantly lower. The trend in monthly mortality rate was fourfold greater (worse) among Hispanic patients (8.3%; 95% CI, 3.6%-13.4%) vs non-Hispanic patients (2.2%; 95% CI, 0.6%-3.8%), but this was not shown to be related to vaccine rollout.

INTERPRETATION

SARS-CoV-2 vaccine rollout was associated with improved COVID-19 admission trends among non-Hispanic vs Hispanic patients. Vaccine rollout was not shown to influence mortality trends in either group, which were four times higher among Hispanic patients. Improved vaccine rollout may have reduced disparities in admission trends for Hispanic patients, but other factors influenced their mortality trends.

Prescription Patterns and Predisposing Factors of Benzodiazepine and Z-Hypnotic Use During Pregnancy: A Nationwide Cohort Study

PURPOSE

The use of benzodiazepines and Z-hypnotics during pregnancy has raised significant concerns in recent years. However, there are limited data that capture the prescription patterns and predisposing factors in use of these drugs, particularly among women who have been long-term users of benzodiazepines and Z-hypnotics before pregnancy.

METHODS

This population-based cohort study comprised 2 930 988 pregnancies between 2004 and 2018 in Taiwan. Women who were dispensed benzodiazepines or Z-hypnotics during pregnancy were identified and further stratified into groups based on their status before pregnancy: long-term users (with a supply of more than 180 days within a year), short-term users (with a supply of less than 180 days within a year), and nonusers. Trends in the use of benzodiazepines or Z-hypnotics and concomitant use with antidepressants or opioids were assessed. Logistic regression models were utilized to identify factors associated with use of these drugs during pregnancy, and interrupted time series analyses (ITSA) were employed to evaluate utilization patterns of these drugs across different pregnancy-related periods.

RESULTS

The overall prevalence of benzodiazepine and Z-hypnotic use was 3.5% during pregnancy. Among prepregnancy long-term users, an upward trend was observed. The concomitant use of antidepressants or opioids among exposed women increased threefold (from 8.6% to 23.1%) and sixfold (from 0.3% to 1.7%) from 2004 to 2018, respectively. Women with unhealthy lifestyle behaviors, such as alcohol abuse (OR 2.48; 95% CI, 2.02-3.03), drug abuse (OR 10.34; 95% CI, 8.46-12.64), and tobacco use (OR 2.19; 95% CI, 1.96-2.45), as well as those with psychiatric disorders like anxiety (OR 6.99; 95% CI, 6.77-7.22), insomnia (OR 15.99; 95% CI, 15.55-16.45), depression (OR 9.43; 95% CI, 9.07-9.80), and schizophrenia (OR 21.08; 95% CI, 18.76-23.69), and higher healthcare utilization, were more likely to use benzodiazepines or Z-hypnotics during pregnancy. ITSA revealed a sudden decrease in use of benzodiazepines and Z-hypnotics after recognition of pregnancy (level change -0.55 percentage point; 95% CI, -0.59 to -0.51). In contrast, exposures to benzodiazepines and Z-hypnotics increased significantly after delivery (level change 0.12 percentage point; 95% CI, 0.09 to 0.16).

CONCLUSIONS

In this cohort study, an increased trend of benzodiazepine and Z-hypnotic use during pregnancy among prepregnancy long-term users, as well as concomitant use with antidepressants or opioids were found. The findings have highlighted the existence of various risk factors associated with the use of these drugs during pregnancy. Utilization patterns varied across different stages of pregnancy, highlighting the need for prescription guidelines and educational services for women using these drugs during pregnancy.

Effect of End-Stage Renal Disease Prospective Payment System on Utilization of Peritoneal Dialysis in Patients with Kidney Allograft Failure

INTRODUCTION

The Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services introduced an End-Stage Renal Disease Prospective Payment System (PPS) in 2011 to increase the utilization of home dialysis modalities, including peritoneal dialysis (PD). Several studies have shown a significant increase in PD utilization after PPS implementation. However, its impact on patients with kidney allograft failure remains unknown.

METHODS

We conducted an interrupted time series analysis using data from the US Renal Data System (USRDS) that include all adult kidney transplant recipients with allograft failure who started dialysis between 2005 and 2019. We compared the PD utilization in the pre-PPS period (2005-2010) to the fully implemented post-PPS period (2014-2019) for early (within 90 days) and late (91-365 days) PD experience.

RESULTS

A total of 27,507 adult recipients with allograft failure started dialysis during the study period. There was no difference in early PD utilization between the pre-PPS and the post-PPS period in either immediate change (0.3% increase; 95% CI: -1.95%, 2.54%; p = 0.79) or rate of change over time (0.28% increase per year; 95% CI: -0.16%, 0.72%; p = 0.18). Subgroup analyses revealed a trend toward higher PD utilization post-PPS in for-profit and large-volume dialysis units. There was a significant increase in PD utilization in the post-PPS period in units with low PD experience in the pre-PPS period. Similar findings were seen for the late PD experience.

CONCLUSION

PPS did not significantly increase the overall utilization of PD in patients initiating dialysis after allograft failure.

Breast Cancer Stage and Size Detected with Film versus Digital Mammography in New South Wales, Australia: A Population-Based Study Using Routinely Collected Data

BACKGROUND

Digital mammography has replaced film mammography in breast-screening programs globally, including Australia. This led to an increase in the rate of detection, but whether there was increased detection of clinically important cancers is uncertain.

METHODS

In this population-wide retrospective cohort study in New South Wales, Australia spanning 2004 to 2016 and including 4,631,656 screens, there were 22,965 cancers in women screened with film (n = 11,040) or digital mammography (n = 11,925). We examined the change in tumor characteristics overall and how these rates changed over time, accounting for changes in background rates using an interrupted time-series. Comparisons were made with unscreened women (n = 26,326) during this time.

RESULTS

We found increased detection of in situ cancer (3.36 per 10,000 screens), localized invasive, and smaller-sized breast cancers attributable to the change in mammography technology, whereas screen-detected intermediate-sized and metastatic breast cancers decreased. Rates of early-stage and intermediate-sized interval cancers increased, and late-stage (-1.62 per 10,000 screens) and large interval cancers decreased. In unscreened women, there were small increases in the temporal trends of cancers across all stages.

CONCLUSIONS

At least some of the increased detection of smaller early-stage cancers may have translated into a reduction in larger and late-stage cancers, indicating beneficial detection of cancers that would have otherwise progressed. However, the increased detection of smaller early-stage and small cancers may also have increased over-diagnosis of lesions that would otherwise have not caused harm.

IMPACT

Robust evaluation of potential benefits and harms is needed after changes to screening programs. See related In the Spotlight, p. 638.

Short report: Transition to International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision and the prevalence of autism in a cohort of healthcare systems

LAY ABSTRACT

Currently, the prevalence of autism spectrum disorder (henceforth "autism") is 1 in 36, an increasing trend from previous estimates. In 2015, the United States adopted a new version (International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision) of the World Health Organization coding system, a standard for classifying medical conditions. Our goal was to examine how the transition to this new coding system impacted autism diagnoses in 10 healthcare systems. We obtained information from electronic medical records and insurance claims data from July 2014 through December 2016 for each healthcare system. We used member enrollment data for 30 consecutive months to observe changes 15 months before and after adoption of the new coding system. Overall, the rates of autism per 1000 enrolled members was increasing for 0- to 5-year-olds before transition to International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision and did not substantively change after the new coding was in place. There was variation observed in autism diagnoses before and after transition to International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision for other age groups. The change to the new coding system did not meaningfully affect autism rates at the participating healthcare systems. The increase observed among 0- to 5-year-olds is likely indicative of an ongoing trend related to increases in screening for autism rather than a shift associated with the new coding.

Implementation of Opioid Safety Efforts: Influence of Academic Detailing on Adverse Outcomes Among Patients in the Veterans Health Administration

BACKGROUND

The Veterans Health Administration (VA) implemented academic detailing (AD) to support safer opioid prescribing and overdose prevention initiatives.

METHODS

Patient-level data were extracted monthly from VA's electronic health record to evaluate whether AD implementation was associated with changes in all-cause mortality, opioid poisoning inpatient admissions, and opioid poisoning emergency department (ED) visits in an observational cohort of patients with long-term opioid prescriptions (≥45-day supply of opioids 6 months prior to a given month with ≤15 days between prescriptions). A single-group interrupted time series analysis using segmented logistic regression for mortality and Poisson regression for counts of inpatient admissions and ED visits was used to identify whether the level and slope of these outcomes changed in response to AD implementation.

RESULTS

Among 955 376 unique patients (19 431 241 person-months), there were 53 369 deaths (29 025 pre-AD; 24 344 post-AD), 1927 opioid poisoning inpatient admissions (610 pre-AD; 1317 post-AD), and 408 opioid poisoning ED visits (207 pre-AD; 201 post-AD). Immediately after AD implementation, there was a 5.8% reduction in the odds of all-cause mortality (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.897, 0.990). However, patients had a significantly increased incidence rate of inpatient admissions for opioid poisoning immediately after AD implementation (incidence rate ratio = 1.523; 95% CI: 1.118, 2.077). No significant differences in ED visits for opioid poisoning were observed.

CONCLUSIONS

AD was associated with decreased all-cause mortality but increased inpatient hospitalization for opioid poisoning among patients prescribed long-term opioids. Mechanisms via which AD's efforts influenced opioid-related outcomes should be explored.

Antimicrobial Stewardship in the Emergency Department Observation Unit: Definition of a New Indicator and Evaluation of Antimicrobial Use and Clinical Outcomes

We aimed to define a novel indicator for monitoring antimicrobial use specifically in the Emergency Department Observation Unit (EDOU) and to assess the long-term impact of an institutional education-based antimicrobial stewardship program (ASP) on the antimicrobial prescribing pattern and clinical outcomes in this setting. A quasi-experimental interrupted time-series study was performed from 2011 to 2022. An educational ASP was implemented at the EDOU in 2015. To estimate changes in antimicrobial use, we designed an indicator adjusted for patients at risk of antimicrobial prescribing: defined daily doses (DDDs) per 100 patients transferred from the Emergency Department to the Observation Unit (TOs) per quarter. The number of bloodstream infections (BSIs) and the crude all-cause 14-day mortality were assessed as clinical outcomes. Antimicrobial use showed a sustained reduction with a trend change of -1.17 DDD per 100 TO and a relative effect of -45.6% (CI95% -64.5 to -26.7), particularly relevant for meropenem and piperacillin-tazobactam, with relative effects of -80.4% (-115.0 to -45.7) and -67.9% (-93.9 to -41.9), respectively. The incidence density of all BSIs increased significantly during the ASP period, with a relative effect of 123.2% (41.3 to 284.7). The mortality rate remained low and stable throughout the study period, with an absolute effect of -0.7% (-16.0 to 14.7). The regular monitoring of antimicrobial use in the EDOU by using this new quantitative indicator was useful to demonstrate that an institutional education-based ASP successfully achieved a long-term reduction in overall antimicrobial use, with a low and steady BSI mortality rate.

Using the WHO individual near miss case review (NMCR) cycle to improve quality of emergency obstetric care and maternal outcome in Keren hospital, Eritrea: an interrupted time series analysis

BACKGROUND

In 2016, the WHO regional office for Europe prepared a manual for conducting routine facility based individual near miss case review cycle. This study evaluates the effectiveness of the individual near miss case review (NMCR) cycle in improving quality of emergency obstetric care and maternal outcome in Keren hospital.

METHODS

An interrupted time series design was used to achieve the objectives of this study. Monthly data on women with potentially life-threatening conditions (PLTCs) admitted between April 2018 and October 2022 (i.e. 33 months pre-implementation and 22 months post-implementation) were collected from medical records. Segmented regression analysis was used to assess the intervention's effect on three process and outcome measures, namely, SMO, delayed care, and substandard care. The intervention was expected a priori to show immediate improvements without time-lag followed by gradual increment in slope. Segmented regression analyses were performed using the "itsa' command in STATA.

RESULTS

During the entire study period, 4365 women with potentially life threatening conditions were identified. There was a significant reduction in the post-implementation period in the proportion of mothers with PLTC who experienced SMO (- 8.86; p <  0.001), delayed care (- 8.76; p <  0.001) and substandard care (- 5.58; p <  0.001) compared to pre-implementation period. Results from the segmented regression analysis revealed that the percentage of women with SMO showed a significant 4.75% (95% CI: - 6.95 to - 2.54, p <  0.001) reduction in level followed by 0.28 percentage points monthly (95% CI: - 0.37 to - 0.14, p <  0.001) drop in trend. Similarly, a significant drop of 3.50% (95% CI: - 4.74 to - 2.26, p <  0.001) in the level of substandard care along with a significant decrease of 0.21 percentage points (95% CI: - 0.28 to - 0.14, p < 0.001) in the slope of the regression line was observed. The proportion of women who received delayed care also showed a significant 7% (95% CI: - 9.28 to - 4.68, p < 0.001) reduction in post-implementation level without significant change in slope.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that the WHO individual NMCR cycle was associated with substantial improvements in quality of emergency obstetric care and maternal outcome. The intervention also bears a great potential for scaling-up following the guidance provided in the WHO NMCR manual.

Impact of the End PJ Paralysis interventions on patient health outcomes at the participating hospitals in Alberta, Canada

PURPOSE

Multiple hospitals in Alberta implemented the End PJ Paralysis - a multicomponent inpatient ambulation initiative aimed at preventing the adverse physical and psychological effects patients experience due to low mobility during admission. To inform a scale-up strategy, this study assessed the impact of the initiative based on select process and outcome measures.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Clinical and administrative data were obtained from the hospital Discharge Abstract Database, Research Electronic Data Capture (Redcaps), and Reporting and Learning System for Patient Safety. The variables explored were length of stay, inpatient falls, discharge disposition, pressure injury, patient ambulation, and patient dressed rates. We then used the Interrupted Time Series design for impact analysis.

RESULTS

The analysis included discharge abstracts for 32,884 patients and the results showed significant improvements in outcomes at the participating units. The length of stay and inpatient falls were reduced immediately by 1.8 days (B2=-1.80, p = 0.044, 95% CI [-3.54, -0.05]), and 2.2 events (B2=-2.22, p = 005, 95% CI [-3.75, -0.69]). The percentage of patients discharged home increased overtime (B2=.39, p=.006, 95% CI [.11, .66]). Mobilization and dressed rates also improved.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings imply the interventions safely mitigated the risk of immobility-induced complications, including deconditioning and hospital-acquired disability.

Effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV, malaria and tuberculosis indicators in Togo: an interrupted time series analysis

BACKGROUND

Limited data are available on the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on health-related indicators in sub-Saharan Africa. This study aimed to estimate the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on nine indicators of HIV, malaria and tuberculosis (TB) in Togo.

METHODS

For this interrupted time series analysis, national health information system data from January 2019 to December 2021 and TB programmatic data from the first quarter of 2018 to the fourth quarter of 2022 were analysed. Nine indicators were included. We used Poisson segmented regression to estimate the immediate impact of the pandemic and per-pandemic period trends through incidence rate ratios (IRRs) with 95% CIs.

RESULTS

Overall, there was a decrease in six of the nine indicators, ranging from 19.3% (IRR 0.807, 95% CI 0.682 to 0.955, p=0.024) for the hospitalisation of patients for malaria to 36.9% (IRR 0.631, 95% CI 0.457 to 0.871, p=0.013) for TB diagnosis by Mycobacterium tuberculosis Xpert immediately after the declaration of the COVID-19 pandemic. A comparison of the observed and predicted trends showed that the trend remained constant between the prepandemic and pandemic periods of COVID-19 for all malaria indicators. A significant downward monthly trend was observed in antiretroviral therapy initiation (IRR 0.909, 95% CI 0.892 to 0.926, p<0.001) and positive TB microscopy (IRR 0.919, 95% CI 0.880 to 0.960, p=0.002).

CONCLUSION

HIV, malaria and TB services were generally maintained over time in Togo despite the COVID-19 pandemic. However, given the decline in levels immediately after the onset of the pandemic, there is an urgent need to improve the preparedness of the healthcare system.

Impacts of the Zero-Markup Drug Policy on Hospitalization Expenses of Patients with Stroke in Western China: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis

Background

In 2016, an innovative medical pricing reform called zero-markup drug policy (ZMDP) was implemented in selected pilot cities in China, which focuses on curbing the unreasonable growth of medical expenses. This study aimed to evaluate the impacts of ZMDP on medical expenditure of stroke in western China.

Methods

The quantitative data of inpatients diagnosed with stroke was extracted from the medical insurance system in 7 tertiary public hospitals. An interrupted time series (ITS) was used to analyze the instantaneous level and long-term trend changes of hospitalization expenses per visit from January 2015 to November 2018.

Results

A total of 22,407 stroke inpatients were extracted. The total hospitalization expense per visit had the highest proportion of 20,000 CNY and above (33.66%). After the ZMDP, the median total hospitalization expense and western medicine expense per visit decreased by 631.74 CNY and 966.35 CNY, respectively (P <0.001). Before the policy, the total hospitalization expense, traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) expense, examination expense, treatment expense, laboratory expense and surgical expense per visit showed upward trends (P<0.05), while the anesthesia expense per visit showed a downward trend (P<0.001). When the policy was implemented, the anesthesia expense per visit instantaneously increased by 91.70% (P<0.001). After the policy, the total hospitalization expense, western medicine expense, TCM expense, treatment expense and surgical expense per visit changed from upward trends to downward trends (P<0.05). The anesthesia expense per visit changed from a downward trend to an upward trend (P<0.001), and the examination expense per visit maintained an upward trend (P=0.005).

Conclusion

The economic burden of stroke inpatients decreased significantly with the implementation of the ZMDP, especially for the drug expenses. The medical service expenses increased significantly, reflecting the improvement in the value of medical staff's technical labor. However, the unexpected increase in the examination expenses was likely to be associated with the unreasonable medical compensation mechanism.

Use of interrupted time-series analyses in evaluating health economic outcomes following implementation of multilayer water-tight wound closure in a primary total joint arthroplasty population

Aim: Total joint arthroplasty (TJA) with multi-layer, watertight closure (MLWC) using knotless barbed suture and 2-octyl cyanoacrylate plus polymer mesh tape was compared with conventional closure (CC) using Vicryl™ sutures and staples. Patients & methods: Electronic medical records of patients undergoing TJA (1574: total knee arthroplasty; 580: total hip arthroplasty; 13: unknown) from a single surgeon at a US hospital (CC 2011 to 2013; MLWC 2015 to 2020) were reviewed. Outcomes were length of stay (LOS), discharge to skilled nursing facility (SNF), 90-day surgical site infection (SSI) and 90-day readmission. Logistic regression controlled for baseline characteristics. Adjusted interrupted time series (ITS) analyses accounted for decreasing trends in LOS and SNF discharge over time. Results: Among 2167 TJA cases (mean [standard deviation] age 66.0 [9.7] years, 53.3% female), 906 received CC and 1261 received MLWC. Bivariate analysis showed no statistically significant differences in 90-day SSI rates; however, MLWC patients had 60% lower 90-day readmission rates (1.5 vs 3.8%, p < 0.05), 44% lower LOS (1.4 vs 2.5 days, p < 0.05) and 40% lower discharge rates to a skilled care facility (8.5 vs 14.1%, p < 0.05). Multivariable analyses showed CC patients were 2.45-times more likely to be readmitted within 90 days, 1.88-times more likely to be discharged to SNF and had 1.67-times longer LOS compared with MLWC. ITS analyses showed a sharp decline in LOS (0.9 days) and discharge to SNF (5.6% incidence) after implementation of MLWC, followed by no further changes for the remainder of the study period. Conclusion: MLWC was associated with ≥40% reduction in 90-day readmission, LOS and SNF discharge compared with TJA CC. LOS and discharge rate to SNF declined sharply after the implementation of MLWC.

Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Dispensing of Cardiovascular Drugs in Norway: An Interrupted Time Series Study

INTRODUCTION

The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in changes in prescription patterns and fillings for certain medications, but little is known about its impact on the dispensing of cardiovascular drugs.

METHODS

Trends in dispensing of cardiovascular drugs before and during the pandemic were examined using a population-based cohort in Norway. Using interrupted time series analyses and considering March 1, 2020 as the interruption point, the impact of the pandemic on defined daily dose dispensing of prescribed cardiovascular drugs was estimated in a population of adults with and without pre-existing cardiovascular disease from January 2018 to December 2021. All data were analyzed in 2023.

RESULTS

In a total of 4,053,957 adults, 690,910 (17.0%) had pre-existing cardiovascular disease. Prior to the pandemic, there was a significant monthly increase in any cardiovascular drug dispensing among those with pre-existing cardiovascular disease (0.30 defined daily dose per month per adult), including prescription of diuretics, calcium channel blockers, and lipid-modifying agents. After controlling for preinterruption trends, there was a slight decrease in level change immediately after the start of the pandemic (2.5 defined daily dose per month per adult) but an increase in the postinterruption trend (0.06 defined daily dose per month per adult) for dispensing of cardiovascular prescriptions, although these changes were not significant.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the COVID-19 pandemic did not appear to result in significant changes in patterns of cardiovascular drug dispensing in Norway, continued access to cardiovascular drugs remains important to prevent further related morbidity.

Design and statistical analysis reporting among interrupted time series studies in drug utilization research: a cross-sectional survey

INTRODUCTION

Interrupted time series (ITS) design is a commonly used method for evaluating large-scale interventions in clinical practice or public health. However, improperly using this method can lead to biased results.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate design and statistical analysis characteristics of drug utilization studies using ITS design, and give recommendations for improvements.

METHODS

A literature search was conducted based on PubMed from January 2021 to December 2021. We included original articles that used ITS design to investigate drug utilization without restriction on study population or outcome types. A structured, pilot-tested questionnaire was developed to extract information regarding study characteristics and details about design and statistical analysis.

RESULTS

We included 153 eligible studies. Among those, 28.1% (43/153) clearly explained the rationale for using the ITS design and 13.7% (21/153) clarified the rationale of using the specified ITS model structure. One hundred and forty-nine studies used aggregated data to do ITS analysis, and 20.8% (31/149) clarified the rationale for the number of time points. The consideration of autocorrelation, non-stationary and seasonality was often lacking among those studies, and only 14 studies mentioned all of three methodological issues. Missing data was mentioned in 31 studies. Only 39.22% (60/153) reported the regression models, while 15 studies gave the incorrect interpretation of level change due to time parameterization. Time-varying participant characteristics were considered in 24 studies. In 97 studies containing hierarchical data, 23 studies clarified the heterogeneity among clusters and used statistical methods to address this issue.

CONCLUSION

The quality of design and statistical analyses in ITS studies for drug utilization remains unsatisfactory. Three emerging methodological issues warranted particular attention, including incorrect interpretation of level change due to time parameterization, time-varying participant characteristics and hierarchical data analysis. We offered specific recommendations about the design, analysis and reporting of the ITS study.

Effectiveness of the Coordinated Return to Work model after orthopaedic surgery for lumbar discectomy and hip and knee arthroplasty: a register-based study

OBJECTIVES

This study examined the effectiveness of an individualised Coordinated Return to Work (CRtW) model on the length of the return to work (RTW) period compared with a standard prescription of 2-3 months RTW during recovery after lumbar discectomy and hip and knee arthroplasty among Finnish working-age population.

METHODS

Cohorts on patients aged 18-65 years old with lumbar discectomy or hip or knee arthroplasty were extracted from the electronic health records of eight Finnish hospital districts in 2015-2021 and compiled with retirement and sickness benefits. The overall effect of the CRtW model on the average RTW period was calculated as a weighted average of area-specific mean differences in RTW periods between 1 year before and 1 year after the implementation. Longer-term effects of the model were examined with an interrupted time series design estimated with a segmented regression model.

RESULTS

During the first year of the CRtW model, the average RTW period shortened by 9.1 days (95% CI 4.1 to 14.1) for hip arthroplasty and 14.4 days (95% CI 7.5 to 21.3) for knee arthroplasty. The observed differences were sustained over longer follow-up times. For lumbar discectomy, the first-year decrease was not statistically significant, but the average RTW had shortened by 36.2 days (95% CI 33.8 to 38.5) after 4.5 years.

CONCLUSIONS

The CRtW model shortened average RTW periods among working-age people during the recovery period. Further research with larger samples and longer follow-up times is needed to ensure the effectiveness of the model as a part of the Finnish healthcare system.

Expanding access to medication treatment for opioid use disorders: Findings from the Washington State hub and spoke effort

BACKGROUND

Opioid use disorder (OUD) is a leading cause of preventable death and injury nationwide. Efforts to increase the use of medication for opioid use disorder (MOUD) are needed. In 2017, Washington State implemented a Hub and Spoke (HS) model of care with the primary goal of expanding access to MOUD. We examined changes in MOUD utilization among Washington State Medicaid beneficiaries before and after HS implementation.

METHODS

We used Medicaid claims data to examine longitudinal changes in MOUD use for beneficiaries with OUD. We conducted a comparative interrupted time series analysis to examine the association between HS policy implementation and rates of MOUD utilization, overall and by type of medication.

RESULTS

Between 2016 and 2019, a period of increasing OUD prevalence, rates of MOUD utilization among Washington Medicaid beneficiaries increased overall from 39.7 to 50.5. Following HS implementation, rates of MOUD use grew at a significantly greater rate in the HS cohort than in the non-HS cohort (β=0.54, SE=0.02, p< 0.0001, 95% CI 0.49, 0.59). Analyses by medication type show that this rate increase was primarily due to buprenorphine use (β= 0.61, SE= 0.02, p< 0.0001, 95% CI 0.57, 0.65).

CONCLUSION

Improved systems of care are needed to make MOUD accessible to all patients in need. The Washington HS model is one strategy that may facilitate and expand MOUD use, particularly buprenorphine. Over the study period, Washington State saw increased use of buprenorphine, which was an emphasis of their HS model.

Reductions in smoking due to ratification of the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control in 171 countries

Smoking globally kills over half of long-term smokers and causes about 7 million annual deaths. The World Health Organization Framework Convention for Tobacco Control (FCTC) is the main global policy strategy to combat smoking, but its effectiveness is uncertain. Our interrupted time series analyses compared before- and after-FCTC trends in the numbers and prevalence of smokers below the age of 25 years (when smoking initiation occurs and during which response to interventions is greatest) and on cessation at 45-59 years (when quitting probably occurs) in 170 countries, excluding China. Contrasting the 10 years after FCTC ratification with the income-specific before-FCTC trends, we observed cumulative decreases of 15.5% (95% confidence interval = -33.2 to -0.7) for the numbers of current smokers and decreases of -7.5% (95% CI = -10.6 to -4.5) for the prevalence of smoking below age 25 years. The quit ratio (comparing the numbers of former and ever smokers) at 45-59 years increased by 1.8% (1.2 to 2.3) 10 years after FCTC ratification. Countries raising taxes by at least 10 percentage points concurrent with ratification observed steeper decreases in all three outcomes than countries that did not. Over a decade across 170 countries, the FCTC was associated with 24 million fewer young smokers and 2 million more quitters.

Impact of the Pediatric ABO Policy Change on Listings, Transplants, and Outcomes for Children Younger Than 2 Years Listed for Heart Transplantation in the United States

BACKGROUND

We assessed the impact of the liberalized ABO pediatric policy change on candidate characteristics and outcomes for children undergoing heart transplant (HT).

METHODS AND RESULTS

Children <2 years undergoing HT with ABO strategy reported at listing and HT from December 2011 to November 2020 to the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients database were included. Characteristics at listing, HT, and outcomes during the waitlist and post-transplant were compared before the policy change (December 16, 2011 to July 6, 2016), and after the policy change (July 7, 2016 to November 30, 2020). The percentage of ABO-incompatible (ABOi) listings did not increase immediately after the policy change (P = .93); however, ABOi transplants increased by 18% (P < .0001). At listing, both before and after the policy change, ABOi candidates had higher urgency status, renal dysfunction, lower albumin, and required more cardiac support (intravenous inotropes, mechanical ventilation) than those listed ABO compatible (ABOc). On multivariable analysis, there were no differences in waitlist mortality between children listed as ABOi and ABOc before the policy change (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.80, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.61-1.05, P = .10) or after the policy change (aHR 1.2, 95% CI 0.85-1.6, P = .33). Post-transplant graft survival was worse for ABOi transplanted children before the policy change (aHR 1.8, 95% CI 1.1-2.8, P = .014), but not significantly different after the policy change (aHR 0.94, 95% CI 0.61-1.4, P = .76). After the policy change, ABOi listed children had significantly shorter waitlist times (P < .05).

CONCLUSIONS

The recent pediatric ABO policy change has significantly increased the percentage of ABOi transplantations and decreased waitlist times for children listed ABOi. This change in policy has resulted in broader applicability and actual performance of ABOi transplantation with equal access to ABOi or ABOc organs, and thus eliminated the potential disadvantage of only secondary allocation to ABOi recipients.

Does the Adoption of Molecular Testing Cause Decreased Thyroidectomy Rates in a National Cohort? A Quasiexperimental Study of High- Versus Low-Adoption States

Background: Over the last decade, the utilization of molecular testing (MT) for the evaluation of thyroid nodules has increased. Rates and patterns of adoption of MT and its effect on thyroidectomy rates nationally are unknown. Varying rates of MT adoption at the state level provide an opportunity to study the effects of MT on thyroidectomy rates using a quasiexperimental study design. Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of American adult patients in the Merative™ MarketScan® Research Databases who underwent thyroid fine-needle aspiration (FNA) from 2011 to 2021. MT included commercially available DNA and RNA platforms and traditional targeted mutational analysis. Interrupted time series analysis was used to evaluate the inflection of MT adoption and thyroidectomy rates after 2015. Difference-in-differences (DID) analysis was used to causally analyze the effect of MT adoption on thyroidectomy rates in high-adoption (at least a 10% increase in MT utilization) versus low-adoption states (no more than 5% increase in MT utilization) from 2015 to 2021. Results: We identified 471,364 patients who underwent thyroid FNA. The utilization of MT increased over the study period from 0.01% [confidence interval, CI: 0.00% to 0.02%] to 10.1% [CI: 9.7% to 10.5%], in 2021, with an immediate (β2 = 1.61, p = 0.002) and deeper (β3 = 0.6, p < 0.001) increase in MT adoption after 2015. Utilization of MT was lower in black patients, the elderly, rural areas, and patients with Medicaid (p < 0.05). Thyroidectomy rates were inversely correlated with MT utilization (r = -0.98, p < 0.0001). From 2015 to 2021, the average MT utilization rate increased from 2.4% to 15.3% in high-adoption states and 1.6% to 5.6% in low-adoption states. In low-adoption states, thyroidectomy rates decreased more but to similar levels (18.5-13.2%) compared with high-adoption states (15.9-13.4%) with an adjusted DID rate of -3.3% [CI -5.6% to -0.8%]. Conclusions: The acceleration in adoption of MT after 2015 likely coincides with the publication of American Thyroid Association guidelines. Black, elderly, and rural patients are less likely to receive MT. Although thyroidectomy rates were inversely correlated with MT utilization, our study suggests that this correlation is not causal. The effect of MT on thyroidectomy rates may be overshadowed by decreasing aggressiveness of thyroid nodule evaluation.

Differences in Healthcare Utilization in Children with Developmental Disabilities Following Value-Based Care Coordination Policies

GOAL

To address healthcare spending growth, coordinate care, and improve primary care utilization, a majority of states in the United States have adopted value-based care coordination programs. The objective of this study was to identify changes in national healthcare utilization for children with developmental disabilities (DDs), a high-cost and high-need population, following the broad adoption of value-based care coordination policies.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 9,109 children with DDs and used data from 2002-2018 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. We applied an interrupted time series design approach to compare pre- and post-Affordable Care Act (ACA) care coordination policies concerning healthcare utilization outcomes, including outpatient visits, home provider days, emergency department (ED) visits, inpatient discharge, and inpatient nights of stay.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We found statistically significant increases in low-cost care post-ACA, including outpatient visits (5% higher, p < .001) and home provider days (11% higher, p < .001). The study findings also showed a statistically significant increase in inpatient nights of stay post-ACA (4% higher, p = .001). There were no changes in the number of ED and inpatient visits. Overall, broad implementation of care coordination programs was associated with increased utilization of low-cost care without increases in the number of high-cost ED and inpatient visits for children with DDs. Our study also found changes in population composition among children with DDs post-ACA, including increases in Hispanic (16.9% post-ACA vs. 13.4% pre-ACA, p = .006) and non-Hispanic multiracial children (9.1% post-ACA vs. 5.5% pre-ACA, p = .001), a decrease in non-Hispanic Whites (60.2% post-ACA vs. 68.6% pre-ACA, p = .001), more public-only insurance (44.3% post-ACA vs. 35.7% pre-ACA, p = .001), fewer children with DDs from middle-income families (27.4% post-ACA vs. 32.8% pre-ACA, p < .001), and more children with DDs from poor families (28.2% post-ACA vs. 25.1% pre-ACA, p = .043).

PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS

These findings highlight the importance of continued support for broad care coordination programs for U.S. children with DDs and potentially others with complex chronic conditions. Policymakers and healthcare leaders might consider improving care transitions from inpatient to community or home settings by overcoming barriers such as payment models and the lack of home care nurses who can manage complex chronic conditions. Healthcare leaders also need to understand and consider the changing population composition when implementing care coordination-related policies. This study provides data regarding trends in hospital and home care utilization and evidence of the effectiveness of care coordination policies before the COVID-19 interruption. These findings apply to current healthcare management because COVID-19 has incentivized home care, which may have a strong potential to minimize high-cost care for people with complex chronic conditions. More research is warranted to continue monitoring care coordination changes over a longer period.

Interpretation of coefficients in segmented regression for interrupted time series analyses

Background Segmented regression, a common model for interrupted time series (ITS) analysis, primarily utilizes two equation parametrizations. Interpretations of coefficients vary between the two segmented regression parametrizations, leading to occasional user misinterpretations. Methods To illustrate differences in coefficient interpretation between two common parametrizations of segmented regression in ITS analysis, we derived analytical results and present an illustration evaluating the impact of a smoking regulation policy in Italy using a publicly accessible dataset. Estimated coefficients and their standard errors were obtained using two commonly used parametrizations for segmented regression with continuous outcomes. We clarified coefficient interpretations and intervention effect calculations. Results Our investigation revealed that both parametrizations represent the same model. However, due to differences in parametrization, the immediate effect of the intervention is estimated differently under the two approaches. The key difference lies in the interpretation of the coefficient related to the binary indicator for intervention implementation, impacting the calculation of the immediate effect. Conclusions Two common parametrizations of segmented regression represent the same model but have different interpretations of a key coefficient. Researchers employing either parametrization should exercise caution when interpreting coefficients and calculating intervention effects.

Impact of Rapid Response Teams on Pediatric Care: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis of Unplanned PICU Admissions and Cardiac Arrests

Pediatric rapid response teams (RRTs) are expected to significantly lower pediatric mortality in healthcare settings. This study evaluates RRTs' effectiveness in decreasing cardiac arrests and unexpected Pediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU) admissions. A quasi-experimental study (2014-2017) at King Abdulaziz University Hospital, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, involved 3261 pediatric inpatients, split into pre-intervention (1604) and post-intervention (1657) groups. Baseline pediatric warning scores and monthly data on admissions, transfers, arrests, and mortality were analyzed pre- and post-intervention. Statistical methods including bootstrapping, segmented regression, and a Zero-Inflation Poisson model were employed to ensure a comprehensive evaluation of the intervention's impact. RRT was activated 471 times, primarily for respiratory distress (29.30%), sepsis (22.30%), clinical anxiety (13.80%), and hematological abnormalities (6.7%). Family concerns triggered 0.1% of activations. Post-RRT implementation, unplanned PICU admissions significantly reduced (RR = 0.552, 95% CI 0.485-0.628, p < 0.0001), and non-ICU cardiac arrests were eliminated (RR = 0). Patient care improvement was notable, with a -9.61 coefficient for PICU admissions (95% CI: -12.65 to -6.57, p < 0.001) and a -1.641 coefficient for non-ICU cardiac arrests (95% CI: -2.22 to -1.06, p < 0.001). Sensitivity analysis showed mixed results for PICU admissions, while zero-inflation Poisson analysis confirmed a reduction in non-ICU arrests. The deployment of pediatric RRTs is associated with fewer unexpected PICU admissions and non-ICU cardiopulmonary arrests, indicating improved PICU management. Further research using robust scientific methods is necessary to conclusively determine RRTs' clinical benefits.

Evaluating the implementation of personalised outcomes forecasts to optimise supervised exercise therapy in patients with intermittent claudication in the Netherlands: a multimethods study

BACKGROUND

To support the optimisation of supervised exercise therapy (SET) in patients with intermittent claudication, we developed personalised outcomes forecasts (POFs), which visualise estimated walking distance and quality of life for individual patients. The POFs may enable healthcare professionals, such as physical and exercise therapists, to improve shared decision-making and patient outcomes.

OBJECTIVES

To assess differences in patient outcomes (functional walking distance, maximal walking distance and health-related quality of life) and the level of shared decision-making before and after the implementation of POFs in the conservative treatment of patients with intermittent claudication.

METHODS

An interrupted time series design was used to compare preimplementation and postimplementation differences on patient outcomes. Using routinely collected data, differences from baseline to 6 months were compared between patients before and patients after the implementation. To compare levels of shared decision-making, we conducted observations of initial consults within a sample of physical or exercise therapists both before and after the implementation. Audiorecords of observations were scored on shared decision-making using the OPTION-5 instrument.

RESULTS

Differences in improvements between patients with whom POFs were discussed (n=317) and patients before the implementation of POFs (n=721) did not reach statistical significance for both functional walking distance (experimental vs. control=+23%, p=0.11) and maximal walking distance (experimental vs. control=+21%, p=0.08). For health-related quality of life, the POFs-informed patients showed a statistically significant greater improvement of 4% (p=0.04). Increased levels of shared decision-making were observed in postimplementation consults (n=20) when compared with preimplementation consults (n=36), as the median OPTION-5 total score showed a statistically significant increase from 45 to 55 points (p=0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Integrating POFs into daily practice of SET for patients with intermittent claudication could assist in improving health-related quality of life and enhancing patient involvement. Using POFs did not result in statistically significant different improvements between groups on walking distances.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NL8838.