Spatiotemporal distribution of autism spectrum disorder prevalence among birth cohorts during 2000-2011 in Israel

Large increase in ASD prevalence in Israel between 2017 and 2021

Accurate estimation of annual changes in autism spectrum disorders (ASD) prevalence is critical for planning the expansion of diagnostic, education, and intervention services at an adequate rate. Previous studies from Israel have reported that ASD prevalence among 8-year-old children has increased from estimates of 0.3% in 2008 to 0.65% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2018. Here, we analyzed data acquired from the National Insurance Institute of Israeli (NII), a governmental organization that approves and monitors all ASD children who receive welfare services in Israel, and Clalit Health Services (CHS), the largest Health Maintenance Organization in Israel that provides health services to ~52% of the population. Data from both sources included annual data files from 2017 to 2021 containing the number of ASD cases per year of birth for 1-17-year-old children. This allowed us to estimate annual ASD prevalence among 3.5 million children born between 2000 and 2020 in Israel. Both data sources revealed a nearly two-fold increase in ASD prevalence among 1-17-year-old children from 2017 to 2021. Estimated prevalence rates differed across age groups with 2-3-year-old (day-care) children increasing from 0.27% to 1.19% (>4 fold change), 4-6-year-old (pre-school) children increasing from 0.8% to 1.83%, and 8-year-old children increasing from 0.82% to 1.56% in NII data. These results demonstrate that autism prevalence continues to increase in Israel with a shift towards diagnosis at earlier ages. These findings highlight the challenge facing health and education service providers in meeting the needs of a rapidly growing autism population.

The global prevalence of autism spectrum disorder: A three-level meta-analysis

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is one the most disabling developmental disorders, imposing an extremely high economic burden. Obtaining as accurate prevalence estimates as possible is crucial to guide governments in planning policies for identification and intervention for individuals with ASD and their relatives. The precision of prevalence estimates can be heightened by summative analyses of the data collected around the world. To that end, we conducted a three-level mixed-effects meta-analysis. A systematic search of the Web of Science, PubMed, EMBASE, and PsycINFO databases from 2000 up to 13 July 2020 was performed, and reference lists of previous reviews and existing databases of prevalence studies were screened. Overall, 79 studies were included in the analysis of ASD and 59-in the analysis of previously existing relevant diagnoses: 30 for Autistic Disorder (AD), 15 for Asperger Syndrome (AS), and 14 for Atypical Autism (AA) and Pervasive Developmental Disorder - Not Otherwise Specified (PDD-NOS); these research reports covered the period from 1994 to 2019. Pooled prevalence estimates were 0.72% (95% CI = 0.61-0.85) for ASD, 0.25% (95% CI = 0.18-0.33) for AD, 0.13% (95% CI = 0.07-0.20) for AS, and 0.18% (95% CI = 0.10-0.28) for the combined group of AA and PDD-NOS. Estimates were higher (1) for the studies that used records-review surveillance rather than other designs; (2) in North America compared with other geographical regions; and (3) in high-income compared with lower-income countries. The highest prevalence estimates were registered in the USA. There was an increase in autism prevalence estimates over time. The prevalence was also significantly higher for children aged between 6 and 12 years compared to children under the age of 5 and over the age of 13 years.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42019131525, identifier CRD42019131525.