Prediction of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation based on non-linear analysis and spectrum and bispectrum features of the heart rate variability signal

Machine learning-based atrial fibrillation detection and onset prediction using QT-dynamicity

Objective. This study examines the value of ventricular repolarization using QT dynamicity for two different types of atrial fibrillation (AF) prediction.Approach. We studied the importance of QT-dynamicity (1) in the detection and (2) the onset prediction (i.e. forecasting) of paroxysmal AF episodes using gradient-boosted decision trees (GBDT), an interpretable machine learning technique. We labeled 176 paroxysmal AF onsets from 88 patients in our unselected Holter recordings database containing paroxysmal AF episodes. Raw ECG signals were delineated using a wavelet-based signal processing technique. A total of 44 ECG features related to interval and wave durations and amplitude were selected and the GBDT model was trained with a Bayesian hyperparameters selection for various windows. The dataset was split into two parts at the patient level, meaning that the recordings from each patient were only present in either the train or test set, but not both. We used 80% on the database for the training and the remaining 20% for the test of the trained model. The model was evaluated using 5-fold cross-validation.Main results.The mean age of the patients was 75.9 ± 11.9 (range 50-99), the number of episodes per patient was 2.3 ± 2.2 (range 1-11), and CHA2DS2-VASc score was 2.9 ± 1.7 (range 1-9). For the detection of AF, we obtained an area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) of 0.99 (CI 95% 0.98-0.99) and an accuracy of 95% using a 30 s window. Features related to RR intervals were the most influential, followed by those on QT intervals. For the AF onset forecast, we obtained an AUROC of 0.739 (0.712-0.766) and an accuracy of 74% using a 120s window. R wave amplitude and QT dynamicity as assessed by Spearman's correlation of the QT-RR slope were the best predictors.Significance. The QT dynamicity can be used to accurately predict the onset of AF episodes. Ventricular repolarization, as assessed by QT dynamicity, adds information that allows for better short time prediction of AF onset, compared to relying only on RR intervals and heart rate variability. Communication between the ventricles and atria is mediated by the autonomic nervous system (ANS). The variations in intraventricular conduction and ventricular repolarization changes resulting from the influence of the ANS play a role in the initiation of AF.

Early warning of atrial fibrillation using deep learning

Atrial fibrillation (AF), the most prevalent cardiac rhythm disorder, significantly increases hospitalization and health risks. Reverting from AF to sinus rhythm (SR) often requires intensive interventions. This study presents a deep-learning model capable of predicting the transition from SR to AF on average 30.8 min before the onset appears, with an accuracy of 83% and an F1 score of 85% on the test data. This performance was obtained from R-to-R interval signals, which can be accessible from wearable technology. Our model, entitled Warning of Atrial Fibrillation (WARN), consists of a deep convolutional neural network trained and validated on 24-h Holter electrocardiogram data from 280 patients, with 70 additional patients used for testing and further evaluation on 33 patients from two external centers. The low computational cost of WARN makes it ideal for integration into wearable technology, allowing for continuous heart monitoring and early AF detection, which can potentially reduce emergency interventions and improve patient outcomes.

Materials-Driven Soft Wearable Bioelectronics for Connected Healthcare

In the era of Internet-of-things, many things can stay connected; however, biological systems, including those necessary for human health, remain unable to stay connected to the global Internet due to the lack of soft conformal biosensors. The fundamental challenge lies in the fact that electronics and biology are distinct and incompatible, as they are based on different materials via different functioning principles. In particular, the human body is soft and curvilinear, yet electronics are typically rigid and planar. Recent advances in materials and materials design have generated tremendous opportunities to design soft wearable bioelectronics, which may bridge the gap, enabling the ultimate dream of connected healthcare for anyone, anytime, and anywhere. We begin with a review of the historical development of healthcare, indicating the significant trend of connected healthcare. This is followed by the focal point of discussion about new materials and materials design, particularly low-dimensional nanomaterials. We summarize material types and their attributes for designing soft bioelectronic sensors; we also cover their synthesis and fabrication methods, including top-down, bottom-up, and their combined approaches. Next, we discuss the wearable energy challenges and progress made to date. In addition to front-end wearable devices, we also describe back-end machine learning algorithms, artificial intelligence, telecommunication, and software. Afterward, we describe the integration of soft wearable bioelectronic systems which have been applied in various testbeds in real-world settings, including laboratories that are preclinical and clinical environments. Finally, we narrate the remaining challenges and opportunities in conjunction with our perspectives.

Differential diagnosis between dilated cardiomyopathy and ischemic cardiomyopathy based on variational mode decomposition and high order spectra analysis

The clinical manifestations of ischemic cardiomyopathy (ICM) bear resemblance to dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM). The definitive diagnosis of DCM necessitates the identification of invasive, costly, and contraindicated coronary angiography. Many diagnostic studies of cardiovascular disease have tried modal decomposition based on electrocardiogram (ECG) signals. However, these studies ignored the connection between modes and other fields, thus limiting the interpretability of modes to ECG signals and the classification performance of models. This study proposes a classification algorithm based on variational mode decomposition (VMD) and high order spectra, which decomposes the preprocessed ECG signal and extracts its first five modes obtained through VMD. After that, these modes are estimated for their corresponding bispectrums, and the feature vector is composed of fifteen features including bispectral, frequency, and nonlinear features based on this. Finally, a dataset containing 75 subjects (38 DCM, 37 ICM) is classified and compared using random forest (RF), decision tree, support vector machine, and K-nearest neighbor. The results show that, in comparison to previous approaches, the technique proposed provides a better categorization for DCM and ICM of ECG signals, which delivers 98.21% classification accuracy, 98.22% sensitivity, and 98.19% specificity. And mode 3 always has the best performance among single mode. The proposed computerized framework significantly improves automatic diagnostic performance, which can help relieve the working pressure on doctors, possible economic burden and health threaten.

Pathological Heart Rate Regulation in Apparently Healthy Individuals

Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in adults worldwide. There is one common pathophysiological aspect present in all cardiovascular diseases-dysfunctional heart rhythm regulation. Taking this aspect into consideration for cardiovascular risk predictions opens important research perspectives, allowing for the development of preventive treatment techniques. The aim of this study was to find out whether certain pathologically appearing signs in the heart rate variability (HRV) of an apparently healthy person, even with high HRV, can be defined as biomarkers for a disturbed cardiac regulation and whether this can be treated preventively by a drug-free method. This multi-phase study included 218 healthy subjects of either sex, who consecutively visited the physician at Gesundheit clinic because of arterial hypertension, depression, headache, psycho-emotional stress, extreme weakness, disturbed night sleep, heart palpitations, or chest pain. In study phase A, baseline measurement to identify individuals with cardiovascular risks was done. Therefore, standard HRV, as well as the new cardiorhythmogram (CRG) method, were applied to all subjects. The new CRG analysis used here is based on the recently introduced LF drops and HF counter-regulation. Regarding the mechanisms of why these appear in a steady-state cardiorhythmmogram, they represent non-linear event-based dynamical HRV biomarkers. The next phase of the study, phase B, tested whether the pathologically appearing signs identified via CRG in phase A could be clinically influenced by drug-free treatment. In order to validate the new CRG method, it was supported by non-linear HRV analysis in both phase A and in phase B. Out of 218 subjects, the pathologically appearing signs could be detected in 130 cases (60%), p < 0.01, by the new CRG method, and by the standard HRV analysis in 40 cases (18%), p < 0.05. Thus, the CRG method was able to detect 42% more cases with pathologically appearing cardiac regulation. In addition, the comparative CRG analysis before and after treatment showed that the pathologically appearing signs could be clinically influenced without the use of medication. After treatment, the risk group decreased eight-fold-from 130 people to 16 (p < 0.01). Therefore, progression of the detected pathological signs to structural cardiac pathology or arrhythmia could be prevented in most of the cases. However, in the remaining risk group of 16 apparently healthy subjects, 8 people died due to all-cause mortality. In contrast, no other subject in this study has died so far. The non-linear parameter which is able to quantify the changes in CRGs before versus after treatment is FWRENYI4 (symbolic dynamic feature); it decreased from 2.85 to 2.53 (p < 0.001). In summary, signs of pathological cardiac regulation can be identified by the CRG analysis of apparently healthy subjects in the early stages of development of cardiac pathology. Thus, our method offers a sensitive biomarker for cardiovascular risks. The latter can be influenced by non-drug treatments (acupuncture) to stop the progression into structural cardiac pathologies or arrhythmias in most but not all of the patients. Therefore, this could be a real and easy-to-use supplemental method, contributing to primary prevention in cardiology.

Nonlinear analysis of heart rate variability signals in meditative state: a review and perspective

INTRODUCTION

In recent times, an upsurge in the investigation related to the effects of meditation in reconditioning various cardiovascular and psychological disorders is seen. In majority of these studies, heart rate variability (HRV) signal is used, probably for its ease of acquisition and low cost. Although understanding the dynamical complexity of HRV is not an easy task, the advances in nonlinear analysis has significantly helped in analyzing the impact of meditation of heart regulations. In this review, we intend to present the various nonlinear approaches, scientific findings and their limitations to develop deeper insights to carry out further research on this topic.

RESULTS

Literature have shown that research focus on nonlinear domain is mainly concentrated on assessing predictability, fractality, and entropy-based dynamical complexity of HRV signal. Although there were some conflicting results, most of the studies observed a reduced dynamical complexity, reduced fractal dimension, and decimated long-range correlation behavior during meditation. However, techniques, such as multiscale entropy (MSE) and multifractal analysis (MFA) of HRV can be more effective in analyzing non-stationary HRV signal, which were hardly used in the existing research works on meditation.

CONCLUSIONS

After going through the literature, it is realized that there is a requirement of a more rigorous research to get consistent and new findings about the changes in HRV dynamics due to the practice of meditation. The lack of adequate standard open access database is a concern in drawing statistically reliable results. Albeit, data augmentation technique is an alternative option to deal with this problem, data from adequate number of subjects can be more effective. Multiscale entropy analysis is scantily employed in studying the effect of meditation, which probably need more attention along with multifractal analysis.

METHODS

Scientific databases, namely PubMed, Google Scholar, Web of Science, Scopus were searched to obtain the literature on "HRV analysis during meditation by nonlinear methods". Following an exclusion criteria, 26 articles were selected to carry out this scientific analysis.

Validity and reliability of short-term heart-rate variability from disposable electrocardiography leads

Background and Aims

Single-use electrocardiography (ECG) leads have been developed to reduce healthcare-associated infection. This study compared the validity and reliability of short-term heart rate variability (HRV) obtained from single-use disposable ECG leads.

Methods

Thirty healthy subjects (33 ± 10 years; 9 females) underwent 5-min resting HRV assessments using disposable (single use) ECG cable and wire system (Kendall DL™ Cardinal Health) and a standard, reusable ECG leads (CardioExpress, Spacelabs Healthcare).

Results

Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) with 95% confidence interval (CI) between disposable and reusable ECG leads was for the time domain [R-R interval (ms); 0.99 (0.91, 1.00)], the root mean square of successive normal R-R interval differences (RMSSD) (ms); 0.91 (0.76, 0.96), the SD of normal-to-normal R-R intervals (SDNN) (ms); 0.91 (0.68, 0.97) and frequency domain [low-frequency (LF) normalized units (nu); 0.90 (0.79, 0.95), high frequency (HF) nu; 0.91 (0.80, 0.96), LF power (ms2); 0.89 (0.62, 0.96), HF power (ms2); 0.90 (0.72, 0.96)] variables. The mean difference and upper and lower limits of agreement between disposable and reusable leads for time- and frequency-domain variables were acceptable. Analysis of repeated measures using disposable leads demonstrated excellent reproducibility (ICC 95% CI) for R-R interval (ms); 0.93 (0.85, 0.97), RMSSD (ms); 0.93 (0.85, 0.97), SDNN (ms); 0.88 (0.75, 0.95), LF power (ms2); 0.87 (0.72, 0.94), and HF power (ms2); 0.88 (0.73, 0.94) with coefficient of variation ranging from 2.2% to 5% (p > 0.37 for all variables).

Conclusion

Single-use Kendall DL™ ECG leads demonstrate a valid and reproducible tool for the assessment of HRV.

Automatic Atrial Fibrillation Arrhythmia Detection Using Univariate and Multivariate Data

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is still a major cause of disease morbidity and mortality, making its early diagnosis desirable and urging researchers to develop efficient methods devoted to automatic AF detection. Till now, the analysis of Holter-ECG recordings remains the gold-standard technique to screen AF. This is usually achieved by studying either RR interval time series analysis, P-wave detection or combinations of both morphological characteristics. After extraction and selection of meaningful features, each of the AF detection methods might be conducted through univariate and multivariate data analysis. Many of these automatic techniques have been proposed over the last years. This work presents an overview of research studies of AF detection based on RR interval time series. The aim of this paper is to provide the scientific community and newcomers to the field of AF screening with a resource that presents introductory concepts, clinical features, and a literature review that describes the techniques that are mostly followed when RR interval time series are used for accurate detection of AF.

A Heart Rate Variability-Based Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation Prediction System

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is characterized by totally disorganized atrial depolarizations without effective atrial contraction. It is the most common form of cardiac arrhythmia, affecting more than 46.3 million people worldwide and its incidence rate remains increasing. Although AF itself is not life-threatening, its complications, such as strokes and heart failure, are lethal. About 25% of paroxysmal AF (PAF) patients become chronic for an observation period of more than one year. For long-term and real-time monitoring, a PAF prediction system was developed with four objectives: (1) high prediction accuracy, (2) fast computation, (3) small data storage, and (4) easy medical interpretations. The system takes a 400-point heart rate variability (HRV) sequence containing no AF episodes as the input and outputs whether the corresponding subject will experience AF episodes in the near future (i.e., 30 min). It first converts an input HRV sequence into four image matrices via extended Poincaré plots to capture inter- and intra-person features. Then, the system employs a convolutional neural network (CNN) to perform feature selection and classification based on the input image matrices. Some design issues of the system, including feature conversion and classifier structure, were formulated as a binary optimization problem, which was then solved via a genetic algorithm (GA). A numerical study involving 6085 400-point HRV sequences excerpted from three PhysioNet databases showed that the developed PAF prediction system achieved 87.9% and 87.2% accuracy on the validation and the testing datasets, respectively. The performance is competitive with that of the leading PAF prediction system in the literature, yet our system is much faster and more intensively tested. Furthermore, from the designed inter-person features, we found that PAF patients often possess lower (~60 beats/min) or higher (~100 beats/min) heart rates than non-PAF subjects. On the other hand, from the intra-person features, we observed that PAF patients often exhibit smaller variations (≤5 beats/min) in heart rate than non-PAF subjects, but they may experience short bursts of large heart rate changes sometimes, probably due to abnormal beats, such as premature atrial beats. The other findings warrant further investigations for their medical implications about the onset of PAF.

Advances in Cardiac Pacing: Arrhythmia Prediction, Prevention and Control Strategies

Cardiac arrhythmias constitute a tremendous burden on healthcare and are the leading cause of mortality worldwide. An alarming number of people have been reported to manifest sudden cardiac death as the first symptom of cardiac arrhythmias, accounting for about 20% of all deaths annually. Furthermore, patients prone to atrial tachyarrhythmias such as atrial flutter and fibrillation often have associated comorbidities including hypertension, ischemic heart disease, valvular cardiomyopathy and increased risk of stroke. Technological advances in electrical stimulation and sensing modalities have led to the proliferation of medical devices including pacemakers and implantable defibrillators, aiming to restore normal cardiac rhythm. However, given the complex spatiotemporal dynamics and non-linearity of the human heart, predicting the onset of arrhythmias and preventing the transition from steady state to unstable rhythms has been an extremely challenging task. Defibrillatory shocks still remain the primary clinical intervention for lethal ventricular arrhythmias, yet patients with implantable cardioverter defibrillators often suffer from inappropriate shocks due to false positives and reduced quality of life. Here, we aim to present a comprehensive review of the current advances in cardiac arrhythmia prediction, prevention and control strategies. We provide an overview of traditional clinical arrhythmia management methods and describe promising potential pacing techniques for predicting the onset of abnormal rhythms and effectively suppressing cardiac arrhythmias. We also offer a clinical perspective on bridging the gap between basic and clinical science that would aid in the assimilation of promising anti-arrhythmic pacing strategies.

Convolutional neural networks predict the onset of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation: Theory and applications

In this study, we aimed to detect paroxysmal atrial fibrillation episodes before they occur so that patients can take precautions before putting their and others' lives in potentially life-threatening danger. We used the atrial fibrillation prediction database, open data from PhysioNet, and assembled our process based on convolutional neural networks. Conventional heart rate variability features are calculated from time-domain measures, frequency-domain measures using power spectral density estimations, time-frequency-domain measures using wavelet transform, and nonlinear Poincaré plot measures. In addition, we also applied an alternative heart rate normalization, which gave promising results only in a few studies, before calculating these heart rate variability features. We used these features directly and their normalized versions using min-max normalization and z-score normalization methods. Thus, heart rate variability features extracted from six different combinations of these normalizations, in addition to no normalization cases, were applied to the convolutional neural network classifier. We tuned the classifiers' hyperparameters using 90% of feature sets and tested the classifiers' performances using 10% of feature sets. The proposed approach resulted in 87.76% accuracy, 91.30% precision, 80.04% recall, and 87.50% f1-score in heart rate variability with z-score feature normalization. When the heart rate normalization was also utilized, the suggested method gave 100% accuracy, 100% precision, 100% recall, and 100% f1-score in heart rate variability with z-score feature normalization. The proposed method with heart rate normalization and z-score normalization methods resulted in better classification performance than similar studies in the literature. By comparing the existing studies, we conclude that our approach provides a much better tool to determine a near-future paroxysmal atrial fibrillation episode. However, although the achieved benchmarks are impressive, we note that the approach needs to be supported by other studies and on other datasets before clinical trials.

Methodology for the prediction of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation based on heart rate variability feature analysis

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most clinically diagnosed arrhythmia, as its prevalence increases with age, and its initial stage is paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF). This pathology usually triggers hemodynamic disorders that can generate cerebrovascular accidents (CVA), causing morbidity and even death. The aim of this study is to predict the occurrence of PAF episodes in order to take precautions to prevent PAF episodes. The PhysioNet AFPDB prediction database was used to extract 77 heart rate variability (HRV) features using time domain, geometrical analysis, Poincaré plot, nonlinear analysis, detrended fluctuation analysis, autoregressive modeling, fast Fourier transform (FFT), Lomb-Scargle periodogram, wavelet packet transform (WPT) and bispectrum measurements. The number of features was reduced using the near-zero value, correlation, and recursive feature elimination (RFE) methods for time windows of 1, 2, 5, 10, and 30 min. Feature selection was performed using backwards selection, genetic algorithm, analysis of variance (ANOVA), and non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-III) methods, and then random forest, conditional random forest, k-nearest neighbor (KNN), and support vector machine (SVM) classification algorithms were applied and evaluated using 10-fold cross-validation. The proposed method achieved a precision of 93.24% with a 5-minute window and 89.21% with a 2-minute window, improving performance in predicting PAF when compared with similar studies in the literature.

Review of Deep Learning-Based Atrial Fibrillation Detection Studies

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common arrhythmia that can lead to stroke, heart failure, and premature death. Manual screening of AF on electrocardiography (ECG) is time-consuming and prone to errors. To overcome these limitations, computer-aided diagnosis systems are developed using artificial intelligence techniques for automated detection of AF. Various machine learning and deep learning (DL) techniques have been developed for the automated detection of AF. In this review, we focused on the automated AF detection models developed using DL techniques. Twenty-four relevant articles published in international journals were reviewed. DL models based on deep neural network, convolutional neural network (CNN), recurrent neural network, long short-term memory, and hybrid structures were discussed. Our analysis showed that the majority of the studies used CNN models, which yielded the highest detection performance using ECG and heart rate variability signals. Details of the ECG databases used in the studies, performance metrics of the various models deployed, associated advantages and limitations, as well as proposed future work were summarized and discussed. This review paper serves as a useful resource for the researchers interested in developing innovative computer-assisted ECG-based DL approaches for AF detection.

Insufficient sampling frequencies skew heart rate variability estimates: Implications for extracting heart rate metrics from neuroimaging and physiological data

BACKGROUND

While cardiac pulsations are widely present within physiological and neuroimaging data, it is unknown the extent this information can provide valid and reliable heart rate and heart rate variability (HRV) estimates. The objective of this study was to demonstrate how a slight temporal shift due to an insufficient sampling frequency can impact the validity/accuracy of deriving cardiac metrics.

METHODS

Twenty-two participants were instrumented with valid/reliable industry-standard or open-source electrocardiograms. Five-minute lead II recordings were collected at 1000 Hz in an upright orthostatic position. Following artifact removal, the 1000 Hz recording for each participant was downsampled to frequencies ranging 2-500 Hz. The validity of each participant's downsampled recording was compared against their 1000 Hz recording ("reference-standard") using Bland-Altman plots with 95 % limits of agreement (LOA), coefficient of variation (CoV), intraclass correlation coefficients, and adjusted r-squared values.

RESULTS

Downsampled frequencies of ≥ 50 and ≥ 90 Hz produced highly robust measures with narrow log-transformed 95 % LOA (<±0.01) and low CoV values (≤3.5 %) for heart rate and HRV metrics, respectively. Below these thresholds, the log-transformed 95 % LOA became wider (LOA range: ±0.1-1.9) and more variable (CoV range: 1.5-111.6 %).

CONCLUSION

These results provide an important consideration for obtaining cardiac information from physiological data. Compared to the "reference-standard" ECG, a seemingly negligible temporal shift of the systolic contraction (R wave) greater than 11-milliseconds (90 Hz) away from its true value, lessened the validity of the HRV. Further research is warranted to determine the minimum sampling frequency required to obtain valid heart rate/HRV metrics from pulsatile waveforms.

Atrial Fibrillation Prediction from Critically Ill Sepsis Patients

Sepsis is defined by life-threatening organ dysfunction during infection and is the leading cause of death in hospitals. During sepsis, there is a high risk that new onset of atrial fibrillation (AF) can occur, which is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Consequently, early prediction of AF during sepsis would allow testing of interventions in the intensive care unit (ICU) to prevent AF and its severe complications. In this paper, we present a novel automated AF prediction algorithm for critically ill sepsis patients using electrocardiogram (ECG) signals. From the heart rate signal collected from 5-min ECG, feature extraction is performed using the traditional time, frequency, and nonlinear domain methods. Moreover, variable frequency complex demodulation and tunable Q-factor wavelet-transform-based time-frequency methods are applied to extract novel features from the heart rate signal. Using a selected feature subset, several machine learning classifiers, including support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF), were trained using only the 2001 Computers in Cardiology data set. For testing the proposed method, 50 critically ill ICU subjects from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC) III database were used in this study. Using distinct and independent testing data from MIMIC III, the SVM achieved 80% sensitivity, 100% specificity, 90% accuracy, 100% positive predictive value, and 83.33% negative predictive value for predicting AF immediately prior to the onset of AF, while the RF achieved 88% AF prediction accuracy. When we analyzed how much in advance we can predict AF events in critically ill sepsis patients, the algorithm achieved 80% accuracy for predicting AF events 10 min early. Our algorithm outperformed a state-of-the-art method for predicting AF in ICU patients, further demonstrating the efficacy of our proposed method. The annotations of patients' AF transition information will be made publicly available for other investigators. Our algorithm to predict AF onset is applicable for any ECG modality including patch electrodes and wearables, including Holter, loop recorder, and implantable devices.

A Classification and Prediction Hybrid Model Construction with the IQPSO-SVM Algorithm for Atrial Fibrillation Arrhythmia

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiovascular disease (CVD), and most existing algorithms are usually designed for the diagnosis (i.e., feature classification) or prediction of AF. Artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms integrate the diagnosis of AF electrocardiogram (ECG) and predict the possibility that AF will occur in the future. In this paper, we utilized the MIT-BIH AF Database (AFDB), which is composed of data from normal people and patients with AF and onset characteristics, and the AFPDB database (i.e., PAF Prediction Challenge Database), which consists of data from patients with Paroxysmal AF (PAF; the records contain the ECG preceding an episode of PAF), and subjects who do not have documented AF. We extracted the respective characteristics of the databases and used them in modeling diagnosis and prediction. In the aspect of model construction, we regarded diagnosis and prediction as two classification problems, adopted the traditional support vector machine (SVM) algorithm, and combined them. The improved quantum particle swarm optimization support vector machine (IQPSO-SVM) algorithm was used to speed the training time. During the verification process, the clinical FZU-FPH database created by Fuzhou University and Fujian Provincial Hospital was used for hybrid model testing. The data were obtained from the Holter monitor of the hospital and encrypted. We proposed an algorithm for transforming the PDF ECG waveform images of hospital examination reports into digital data. For the diagnosis model and prediction model trained using the training set of the AFDB and AFPDB databases, the sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy measures were 99.2% and 99.2%, 99.2% and 93.3%, and 91.7% and 92.5% for the test set of the AFDB and AFPDB databases, respectively. Moreover, the sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were 94.2%, 79.7%, and 87.0%, respectively, when tested using the FZU-FPH database with 138 samples of the ECG composed of two labels. The composite classification and prediction model using a new water-fall ensemble method had a total accuracy of approximately 91% for the test set of the FZU-FPH database with 80 samples with 120 segments of ECG with three labels.

Automatic Detection of Atrial Fibrillation in ECG Using Co-Occurrence Patterns of Dynamic Symbol Assignment and Machine Learning

Early detection of atrial fibrillation from electrocardiography (ECG) plays a vital role in the timely prevention and diagnosis of cardiovascular diseases. Various algorithms have been proposed; however, they are lacking in considering varied-length signals, morphological transitions, and abnormalities over long-term recordings. We propose dynamic symbolic assignment (DSA) to differentiate a normal sinus rhythm (SR) from paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF). We use ECG signals and their interbeat (RR) intervals from two public databases namely, AF Prediction Challenge Database (AFPDB) and AF Termination Challenge Database (AFTDB). We transform RR intervals into a symbolic representation and compute co-occurrence matrices. The DSA feature is extracted using varied symbol-length V, word-size W, and applied to five machine learning algorithms for classification. We test five hypotheses: (i) DSA captures the dynamics of the series, (ii) DSA is a reliable technique for various databases, (iii) optimal parameters improve DSA’s performance, (iv) DSA is consistent for variable signal lengths, and (v) DSA supports cross-data analysis. Our method captures the transition patterns of the RR intervals. The DSA feature exhibit a statistically significant difference in SR and PAF conditions (p < 0.005). The DSA feature with W=3 and V=3 yield maximum performance. In terms of F-measure (F), rotation forest and ensemble learning classifier are the most accurate for AFPDB (F = 94.6%) and AFTDB (F = 99.8%). Our method is effective for short-length signals and supports cross-data analysis. The DSA is capable of capturing the dynamics of varied-lengths ECG signals. Particularly, the optimal parameters-based DSA feature and ensemble learning could help to detect PAF in long-term ECG signals. Our method maps time series into a symbolic representation and identifies abnormalities in noisy, varied-length, and pathological ECG signals.

The validity and reliability of ultra-short-term heart rate variability parameters and the influence of physiological covariates

Ultra-short-term (UST) heart rate variability (HRV) metrics have increasingly been proposed as surrogates for short-term HRV metrics. However, the concurrent validity, within-day reliability, and between-day reliability of UST HRV have yet to be comprehensively documented. Thirty-six adults (18 males, age: 26 ± 5 yr, BMI: 24 ± 3 kg/m²) were recruited. Measures of HRV were quantified in a quiet-stance upright orthostatic position via three-lead electrocardiogram (ADInstruments, FE232 BioAmp). All short-term data recordings were 300 s in length and five UST time points (i.e., 30 s, 60 s, 120 s, 180 s, and 240 s) were extracted from the original 300-s recording. Bland-Altman plots with 95% limits of agreement, repeated measures ANOVA and two-tailed paired t tests demarcated differences between UST and short-term recordings. Linear regressions, coefficient of variation, intraclass correlation coefficients, and other tests examined the validity and reliability in both time- and frequency domains. No group differences were noted between all short-term and UST measures, for either time- (all P > 0.202) or frequency-domain metrics (all P > 0.086). A longer recording duration was associated with augmented validity and reliability, which was less impacted by confounding influences from physiological variables (e.g., respiration rate, carbon dioxide end-tidals, and blood pressure). Conclusively, heart rate, time-domain, and relative frequency-domain HRV metrics were acceptable with recordings greater or equal to 60 s, 240 s, and 300 s, respectively. Future studies employing UST HRV metrics should thoroughly understand the methodological requirements to obtain accurate results. Moreover, a conservative approach should be utilized regarding the minimum acceptable recording duration, which ensures valid/reliable HRV estimates are obtained.NEW & NOTEWORTHY A one size fits all methodological approach to quantify HRV metrics appears to be inappropriate, where study design considerations need to be conducted upon a variable-by-variable basis. The present results found 60 s (heart rate), 240 s (time-domain parameters), and 300 s (relative frequency-domain parameters) were required to obtain accurate and reproducible metrics. The lower validity/reliability of the ultra-short-term metrics was attributable to measurement error and/or confounding from extraneous physiological influences (i.e., respiratory and hemodynamic variables).

Prediction of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation using new heart rate variability features

Paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF) is a cardiac arrhythmia that can eventually lead to heart failure or stroke if left untreated. Early detection of PAF is therefore crucial to prevent any further complications and avoid fatalities. An implantable defibrillator device could be used to both detect and treat the condition though such devices have limited computational capability. With this constraint in mind, this paper presents a novel set of features to accurately predict the presence of PAF. The method is evaluated using ECG signals from the widely used atrial fibrillation prediction database (AFPDB) from PhysioNet. We analysed 106 signals from 53 pairs of ECG recordings. Each pair of signals contains one 5-min ECG segment that ends just before the onset of a PAF event and another 5-min ECG segment at least 45 min distant from the PAF event, to represent a non-PAF event. Seven novel features are extracted through the Poincaré representation of R-R interval signals, and are prioritised through feature ranking schemes. The features are used with four standard classification techniques for PAF prediction and compared to the existing state of the art from the literature. Using only the seven proposed features, classification performance outperforms those of the classical state-of-the-art feature set, registering sensitivity and specificity measurements of over 96%. The results further improve when the features are combined with several of the classical features, with an accuracy increasing to 98% using a linear kernel SVM. The results show that the proposed features provide a useful representation of the PAF condition and achieve good prediction with off-the-shelf classification techniques that would be suitable for ICU deployment.

An efficient approach for Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation events prediction using Extreme Learning Machine

Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation (PAF) is a special class of Atrial Fibrillation. Predicting PAF events from electrocardiogram (ECG) signal streams plays a vital role in generating real-time alerts for cardiac disorders. These alerts are extremely important to cardiologists in taking precautions to prevent their patients from having a stroke. In this study, an effective predictive approach to PAF events using the Extreme Learning Machine classification technique is proposed. Besides, we propose a feature extraction method that integrates new ECG signal features to its time-domain ones. The new features are based on the construction of sparse vectors for peaks in ECG signals that provide high overlap between similar ECGs. The proposed prediction approach with the new ECG features representation were evaluated on a real PAF dataset using the five-fold cross-validation method. Experiments show promising results for predicting PAF in terms of accuracy and execution time compared to other existing studies. The proposed approach achieved classification accuracy of 97% for non-streaming ECG signals mode and 94.4% for streaming mode.

Prediction of Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation From Complexity Analysis of the Sinus Rhythm ECG: A Retrospective Case/Control Pilot Study

Paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia, conveying a stroke risk comparable to persistent AF. It poses a significant diagnostic challenge given its intermittency and potential brevity, and absence of symptoms in most patients. This pilot study introduces a novel biomarker for early PAF detection, based upon analysis of sinus rhythm ECG waveform complexity. Sinus rhythm ECG recordings were made from 52 patients with (n = 28) or without (n = 24) a subsequent diagnosis of PAF. Subjects used a handheld ECG monitor to record 28-second periods, twice-daily for at least 3 weeks. Two independent ECG complexity indices were calculated using a Lempel-Ziv algorithm: R-wave interval variability (beat detection, BD) and complexity of the entire ECG waveform (threshold crossing, TC). TC, but not BD, complexity scores were significantly greater in PAF patients, but TC complexity alone did not identify satisfactorily individual PAF cases. However, a composite complexity score (h-score) based on within-patient BD and TC variability scores was devised. The h-score allowed correct identification of PAF patients with 85% sensitivity and 83% specificity. This powerful but simple approach to identify PAF sufferers from analysis of brief periods of sinus-rhythm ECGs using hand-held monitors should enable easy and low-cost screening for PAF with the potential to reduce stroke occurrence.

A Review on the State of the Art in Atrial Fibrillation Detection Enabled by Machine Learning

Atrial Fibrillation (AF) the most commonly occurring type of cardiac arrhythmia is one of the main causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide. The timely diagnosis of AF is an equally important and challenging task because of its asymptomatic and episodic nature. In this paper, state-of-the-art ECG data-based machine learning models and signal processing techniques applied for auto diagnosis of AF are reviewed. Moreover, key biomarkers of AF on ECG and the common methods and equipment used for the collection of ECG data are discussed. Besides that, the modern wearable and implantable ECG sensing technologies used for gathering AF data are presented briefly. In the end, key challenges associated with the development of auto diagnosis solutions of AF are also highlighted. This is the first review paper of its kind that comprehensively presents a discussion on all these aspects related to AF auto-diagnosis in one place. It is observed that there is a dire need for low energy and low cost but accurate auto diagnosis solutions for the proactive management of AF.

Diagnosis of atrial fibrillation based on arterial pulse wave foot point detection using artificial neural networks

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common arrhythmia that is strongly related to the risk of stroke. Some methods in the literature approach AF diagnosis based on cardiovascular signals of several minutes in length. However, many traditional methods utilized to monitor health status in terms of AF rely on electrocardiograms, which are time consuming and require specialized equipment to collect. By contrast, more practical systems focus on noninvasively collected short-term cardiovascular signals, such as arterial pulse waveforms (APWs).

METHODS

In this paper, an AF diagnosis algorithm based on the processing of parameters extracted from short-length heart period (HP) measures is proposed. The HP is obtained by locating foot points (FPOs) in 10-second epochs of APW signals. The algorithm consists of two main stages. First, five parameters representative of the APW morphology are extracted to train an artificial neural network (ANN) model for FPO detection. The moving interpolation difference method and an improved second derivative maximum method are employed for APW parameter extraction. Second, 13 temporal-domain, frequency-domain and nonlinear HP parameters are extracted from the previously identified FPOs. These are subsequently orthogonalized using principal component analysis to train a second ANN for effective AF diagnosis.

RESULTS

Both ANNs were trained and validated on a labeled data set with 20-fold cross-validation, achieving a mean sensitivity and specificity of 97.53% and 90.13%, respectively, for AF diagnosis and an F1 score of 99.18% for FPO identification.

CONCLUSIONS

This paper presents a validated solution for the diagnosis of AF from APW records using parameters derived from HP measures. In addition, compared to that of a commercial BP+ device, improved FPO detection performance is achieved, making the proposed algorithm a strong candidate for the automatic detection of FPOs in oscillometric devices.

Recurrent probabilistic neural network-based short-term prediction for acute hypotension and ventricular fibrillation

In this paper, we propose a novel method for predicting acute clinical deterioration triggered by hypotension, ventricular fibrillation, and an undiagnosed multiple disease condition using biological signals, such as heart rate, RR interval, and blood pressure. Efforts trying to predict such acute clinical deterioration events have received much attention from researchers lately, but most of them are targeted to a single symptom. The distinctive feature of the proposed method is that the occurrence of the event is manifested as a probability by applying a recurrent probabilistic neural network, which is embedded with a hidden Markov model and a Gaussian mixture model. Additionally, its machine learning scheme allows it to learn from the sample data and apply it to a wide range of symptoms. The performance of the proposed method was tested using a dataset provided by Physionet and the University of Tokyo Hospital. The results show that the proposed method has a prediction accuracy of 92.5% for patients with acute hypotension and can predict the occurrence of ventricular fibrillation 5 min before it occurs with an accuracy of 82.5%. In addition, a multiple disease condition can be predicted 7 min before they occur, with an accuracy of over 90%.

Heart Rate Variability Analysis to Predict Onset of Ventricular Tachyarrhythmias in Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillators

Implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs) are commonly used in patients at high risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD) to help prevent and treat life-threatening arrhythmia. Up to 80% of cases of sudden cardiac death are caused by ventricular tachyarrhythmias (VTA) and the accurate prediction of VTA in patients with ICDs can help prevent SCD. Early prediction allows tiered and less invasive therapies to be used to help prevent VTA which are more easily tolerated by the patient and are less battery intensive. In this work, a comparative study of three types of frequency domain features (spectral, bispectrum, and Fourier-Bessel) for VTA prediction is presented based on heart rate variability (HRV) signals between one and five minutes prior to known SCD. Using Fourier-Bessel features and a standard classification approach resulted in the best performance of 87.5% accuracy, 89.3% sensitivity and 85.7% specificity. These results suggest that Fourier-Bessel features are a promising approach for SCD prediction, and that new feature development can help improve both the sensitivity and specificity of SCD prediction in ICDs.

Prediction of rTMS treatment response in major depressive disorder using machine learning techniques and nonlinear features of EEG signal

BACKGROUND

Prediction of therapeutic outcome of repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) treatment is an important purpose that eliminates financial and psychological consequences of applying inefficient therapy. To achieve this goal we proposed a method based on machine learning to classify responders (R) and non- responders (NR) to rTMS treatment for major depression disorder (MDD) patients.

METHODS

19 electrodes resting state EEG was recorded from 46 MDD patients before treatment. Then patients underwent 7 weeks of rTMS, and 23 of them responded to treatment. Features extracted from EEG include Lempel-Ziv complexity (LZC), Katz fractal dimension (KFD), correlation dimension (CD), the power spectral density, features based on bispectrum, frontal and prefrontal cordance and combination of them. The most relevant features were selected by the minimal-redundancy-maximal-relevance (mRMR) feature selection algorithm. For classifying two groups of R and NR, k-nearest neighbors (KNN) were applied. The performance of the proposed method was evaluated by leave-1-out cross-validation. For further study, the capability of features in differentiating R and NR was investigated by a statistical test.

RESULTS

Effective EEG features for prediction of rTMS treatment response were found. EEG beta power, the sum of bispectrum diagonal elements in delta and beta bands and CD were the most discriminative features. Power of beta classified R and NR with the high performance of 91.3% accuracy, 91.3% specificity, and 91.3% sensitivity.

LIMITATIONS

Lack of large sample size restricted our method for using in clinical applications.

CONCLUSION

This considerable high accuracy indicates that our proposed method with power and some of the nonlinear and bispectral features can lead to promising results in predicting treatment outcome of rTMS for MDD patients only by one session pretreatment EEG recording.

Prediction of Sudden Cardiac Death in Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillators: A Review and Comparative Study of Heart Rate Variability Features

Over the last four decades, implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs) have been widely deployed to reduce sudden cardiac death (SCD) risk in patients with a history of life-threatening arrhythmia. By continuous monitoring of the heart rate, ICDs can use decision algorithms to distinguish normal cardiac sinus rhythm or supra-ventricular tachycardia from abnormal cardiac rhythms like ventricular tachycardia and ventricular fibrillation and deliver appropriate therapy such as an electrical stimulus. Despite the success of ICDs, more research is still needed, particularly in decision-making algorithms. Because of low specificity in practical devices, patients with ICDs still receive inappropriate shocks, which may lead to inadvertent mortality and reduction of quality of life. At the same time, higher sensitivity can lead to the use of newer tiered therapies. The purpose of this study is to review the literature on common signal features used in detection algorithms for abnormal cardiac sinus rhythm, as well as reviewing datasets used for algorithm development in previous studies. More than 50 different features to address heart rate changes before SCD have been reviewed and general methodology on this area proposed based on variety of studies on ICDs functionality. A comparative study on the prediction performance of these features, using a common database, is also presented. By combining these features with a support vector machine classifier, achieved results have compared well with other studies.

Automatic Prediction of Atrial Fibrillation Based on Convolutional Neural Network Using a Short-term Normal Electrocardiogram Signal

BACKGROUND

In this study, we propose a method for automatically predicting atrial fibrillation (AF) based on convolutional neural network (CNN) using a short-term normal electrocardiogram (ECG) signal.

METHODS

We designed a CNN model and optimized it by dropout and normalization. One-dimensional convolution, max-pooling, and fully-connected multiple perceptron were used to analyze the short-term normal ECG. The ECG signal was preprocessed and segmented to train and evaluate the proposed CNN model. The training and test sets consisted of the two AF and one normal dataset from the MIT-BIH database.

RESULTS

The proposed CNN model for the automatic prediction of AF achieved a high performance with a sensitivity of 98.6%, a specificity of 98.7%, and an accuracy of 98.7%.

CONCLUSION

The results show the possibility of automatically predicting AF based on the CNN model using a short-term normal ECG signal. The proposed CNN model for the automatic prediction of AF can be a helpful tool for the early diagnosis of AF in healthcare fields.

Prediction of paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation: A machine learning based approach using combined feature vector and mixture of expert classification on HRV signal

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation (PAF) is one of the most common major cardiac arrhythmia. Unless treated timely, PAF might transform into permanent Atrial Fibrillation leading to a high rate of morbidity and mortality. Therefore, increasing attention has been directed towards prediction of PAF, to enable early detection and prevent further progression of the disease. Notwithstanding the pharmacological and electrical treatments, a validated method to predict the onset of PAF is yet to be developed. We aim to address this issue through integrating classical and modern methods.

METHODS

To increase the predictivity, we have made use of a combination of features extracted through linear, time-frequency, and nonlinear analyses performed on heart rate variability. We then apply a novel approach to local feature selection using meticulous methodologies, developed in our previous works, to reduce the dimensionality of the feature space. Subsequently, the Mixture of Experts classification is employed to ensure a precise decision-making on the output of different processes. In the current study, we analyzed 106 signals from 53 pairs of ECG recordings obtained from the standard database called Atrial Fibrillation Prediction Database (AFPDB). Each pair of data contains one 30-min ECG segment that ends just before the onset of PAF event and another 30-min ECG segment at least 45 min distant from the onset.

RESULTS

Combining the features that are extracted using both classical and modern analyses was found to be significantly more effective in predicting the onset of PAF, compared to using either analyses independently. Also, the Mixture of Experts classification yielded more precise class discrimination than other well-known classifiers. The performance of the proposed method was evaluated using the Atrial Fibrillation Prediction Database (AFPDB) which led to sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of 100%, 95.55%, and 98.21% respectively.

CONCLUSION

Prediction of PAF has been a matter of clinical and theoretical importance. We demonstrated that utilising an optimized combination of - as opposed to being restricted to - linear, time-frequency, and nonlinear features, along with applying the Mixture of Experts, contribute greatly to an early detection of PAF, thus, the proposed method is shown to be superior to those mentioned in similar studies in the literature.

Electrocardiogram Sampling Frequency Range Acceptable for Heart Rate Variability Analysis

Objectives

Heart rate variability (HRV) has gained recognition as a noninvasive marker of autonomic activity. HRV is considered a promising tool in various clinical scenarios. The optimal electrocardiogram (ECG) sampling frequency required to ensure sufficient precision of R–R intervals for HRV analysis has not yet been determined. Here, we aimed to determine the acceptable ECG sampling frequency range by analyzing ECG signals from patients who visited an emergency department with the chief complaint of acute intoxication or overdose.

Methods

The study included 83 adult patients who visited an emergency department with the chief complaint of acute poisoning. The original 1,000-Hz ECG signals were down-sampled to 500-, 250-, 100-, and 50-Hz sampling frequencies with linear interpolation. R–R interval data were analyzed for time-domain, frequency-domain, and nonlinear HRV parameters. Parameters derived from the data on down-sampled frequencies were compared with those derived from the data on 1,000-Hz signals, and Lin's concordance correlation coefficients were calculated.

Results

Down-sampling to 500 or 250 Hz resulted in excellent concordance. Signals down-sampled to 100 Hz produced acceptable results for time-domain analysis and Poincaré plots, but not for frequency-domain analysis. Down-sampling to 50 Hz proved to be unacceptable for both time- and frequency-domain analyses. At 50 Hz, the root-mean-squared successive differences and the power of high frequency tended to have high values and random errors.

Conclusions

A 250-Hz sampling frequency would be acceptable for HRV analysis. When frequency-domain analysis is not required, a 100-Hz sampling frequency would also be acceptable.

Paroxysmal atrial fibrillation prediction based on HRV analysis and non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm III

This paper presents a method that able to predict the paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF). The method uses shorter heart rate variability (HRV) signals when compared to existing methods, and achieves good prediction accuracy. PAF is a common cardiac arrhythmia that increases the health risk of a patient, and the development of an accurate predictor of the onset of PAF is clinical important because it increases the possibility to electrically stabilize and prevent the onset of atrial arrhythmias with different pacing techniques. We propose a multi-objective optimization algorithm based on the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm III for optimizing the baseline PAF prediction system, that consists of the stages of pre-processing, HRV feature extraction, and support vector machine (SVM) model. The pre-processing stage comprises of heart rate correction, interpolation, and signal detrending. After that, time-domain, frequency-domain, non-linear HRV features are extracted from the pre-processed data in feature extraction stage. Then, these features are used as input to the SVM for predicting the PAF event. The proposed optimization algorithm is used to optimize the parameters and settings of various HRV feature extraction algorithms, select the best feature subsets, and tune the SVM parameters simultaneously for maximum prediction performance. The proposed method achieves an accuracy rate of 87.7%, which significantly outperforms most of the previous works. This accuracy rate is achieved even with the HRV signal length being reduced from the typical 30 min to just 5 min (a reduction of 83%). Furthermore, another significant result is the sensitivity rate, which is considered more important that other performance metrics in this paper, can be improved with the trade-off of lower specificity.

Paroxysmal atrial fibrillation recognition based on multi-scale wavelet α-entropy

BACKGROUND

This study proposed an effective method based on the wavelet multi-scale α-entropy features of heart rate variability (HRV) for the recognition of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF). This new algorithm combines wavelet decomposition and non-linear analysis methods. The PAF signal, the signal distant from PAF, and the normal sinus signals can be identified and distinguished by extracting the characteristic parameters from HRV signals and analyzing their quantification indexes. The original ECG signals for QRS detection and HRV signal extraction are first processed. The features from the HRV signals are extracted as feature vectors using the wavelet multi-scale entropy. A support vector machine-based classifier is used for PAF prediction.

RESULTS

The performance of the proposed method in predicting PAF episodes is evaluated with 100 signals from the MIT-BIT PAF prediction database. With regard to the dynamics and uncertainty of PAF signals, our proposed method obtains the values of 92.18, 94.88, and 89.48% for the evaluation criteria of correct rate, sensitivity, and specificity, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our proposed method presents better results than the existing studies based on time domain, frequency domain, and non-linear methods. Thus, our method shows considerable potential for clinical monitoring and treatment.

Systematic mapping study of data mining–based empirical studies in cardiology

Data mining provides the methodology and technology to transform huge amount of data into useful information for decision making. It is a powerful process to extract knowledge and discover new patterns embedded in large data sets. Data mining has been increasingly used in medicine, particularly in cardiology. In fact, data mining applications can greatly benefits all parts involved in cardiology such as patients, cardiologists and nurses. This article aims to perform a systematic mapping study so as to analyze and synthesize empirical studies on the application of data mining techniques in cardiology. A total of 142 articles published between 2000 and 2015 were therefore selected, studied and analyzed according to the four following criteria: year and channel of publication, research type, medical task and empirical type. The results of this mapping study are discussed and a list of recommendations for researchers and cardiologists is provided.

Screening strategies for atrial fibrillation: a systematic review and cost-effectiveness analysis

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common cardiac arrhythmia that increases the risk of thromboembolic events. Anticoagulation therapy to prevent AF-related stroke has been shown to be cost-effective. A national screening programme for AF may prevent AF-related events, but would involve a substantial investment of NHS resources.

Objectives

To conduct a systematic review of the diagnostic test accuracy (DTA) of screening tests for AF, update a systematic review of comparative studies evaluating screening strategies for AF, develop an economic model to compare the cost-effectiveness of different screening strategies and review observational studies of AF screening to provide inputs to the model.

Design

Systematic review, meta-analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis.

Setting

Primary care.

Participants

Adults.

Intervention

Screening strategies, defined by screening test, age at initial and final screens, screening interval and format of screening {systematic opportunistic screening [individuals offered screening if they consult with their general practitioner (GP)] or systematic population screening (when all eligible individuals are invited to screening)}.

Main outcome measures

Sensitivity, specificity and diagnostic odds ratios; the odds ratio of detecting new AF cases compared with no screening; and the mean incremental net benefit compared with no screening.

Review methods

Two reviewers screened the search results, extracted data and assessed the risk of bias. A DTA meta-analysis was perfomed, and a decision tree and Markov model was used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the screening strategies.

Results

Diagnostic test accuracy depended on the screening test and how it was interpreted. In general, the screening tests identified in our review had high sensitivity (> 0.9). Systematic population and systematic opportunistic screening strategies were found to be similarly effective, with an estimated 170 individuals needed to be screened to detect one additional AF case compared with no screening. Systematic opportunistic screening was more likely to be cost-effective than systematic population screening, as long as the uptake of opportunistic screening observed in randomised controlled trials translates to practice. Modified blood pressure monitors, photoplethysmography or nurse pulse palpation were more likely to be cost-effective than other screening tests. A screening strategy with an initial screening age of 65 years and repeated screens every 5 years until age 80 years was likely to be cost-effective, provided that compliance with treatment does not decline with increasing age.

Conclusions

A national screening programme for AF is likely to represent a cost-effective use of resources. Systematic opportunistic screening is more likely to be cost-effective than systematic population screening. Nurse pulse palpation or modified blood pressure monitors would be appropriate screening tests, with confirmation by diagnostic 12-lead electrocardiography interpreted by a trained GP, with referral to a specialist in the case of an unclear diagnosis. Implementation strategies to operationalise uptake of systematic opportunistic screening in primary care should accompany any screening recommendations.

Limitations

Many inputs for the economic model relied on a single trial [the Screening for Atrial Fibrillation in the Elderly (SAFE) study] and DTA results were based on a few studies at high risk of bias/of low applicability.

Future work

Comparative studies measuring long-term outcomes of screening strategies and DTA studies for new, emerging technologies and to replicate the results for photoplethysmography and GP interpretation of 12-lead electrocardiography in a screening population.

Study registration

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42014013739.

Funding

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Paroxysmal atrial fibrillation prediction method with shorter HRV sequences

This paper proposes a method that predicts the onset of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF), using heart rate variability (HRV) segments that are shorter than those applied in existing methods, while maintaining good prediction accuracy. PAF is a common cardiac arrhythmia that increases the health risk of a patient, and the development of an accurate predictor of the onset of PAF is clinical important because it increases the possibility to stabilize (electrically) and prevent the onset of atrial arrhythmias with different pacing techniques. We investigate the effect of HRV features extracted from different lengths of HRV segments prior to PAF onset with the proposed PAF prediction method. The pre-processing stage of the predictor includes QRS detection, HRV quantification and ectopic beat correction. Time-domain, frequency-domain, non-linear and bispectrum features are then extracted from the quantified HRV. In the feature selection, the HRV feature set and classifier parameters are optimized simultaneously using an optimization procedure based on genetic algorithm (GA). Both full feature set and statistically significant feature subset are optimized by GA respectively. For the statistically significant feature subset, Mann-Whitney U test is used to filter non-statistical significance features that cannot pass the statistical test at 20% significant level. The final stage of our predictor is the classifier that is based on support vector machine (SVM). A 10-fold cross-validation is applied in performance evaluation, and the proposed method achieves 79.3% prediction accuracy using 15-minutes HRV segment. This accuracy is comparable to that achieved by existing methods that use 30-minutes HRV segments, most of which achieves accuracy of around 80%. More importantly, our method significantly outperforms those that applied segments shorter than 30 minutes.

Effect of filtering on the classification rate of nonlinear analysis methods applied to uterine EMG signals

Nonlinear time series analysis can provide useful information regarding nonlinear features of biological signals. The effect of filtering on the performance of nonlinear methods is not well-understood. In this work, we investigate the effects of signal filtering on the sensitivity of four nonlinear methods: Time reversibility, Sample Entropy, Lyapunov Exponents and Delay Vector Variance. These methods were applied to uterine EMG signals with the aim of using them to discriminate between pregnancy and labor contractions. The signals were filtered using three different band-pass filters before the application of the methods. Results showed that the sensitivity of some methods such as sample entropy was significantly improved with filtering. On the other hand, filtering had little effect on some other methods such as time reversibility. This study concludes that while filtering increases computation time, it may be necessary for some nonlinear methods particularly those with low sensitivity.

Obstructive sleep apnea detection using spectrum and bispectrum analysis of single-lead ECG signal

A novel method for the automatic diagnosis of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) from an electrocardiogram (ECG) is presented. This method aims to detect OSA utilizing exclusively ECG recordings during sleep and present a minute-by-minute signal processing technique. In the proposed algorithm, a wide range of features based on heart rate variability (HRV) and ECG-derived respiratory (EDR) signals are considered. The novelty of this study arises from employing bispectral analysis to the HRV and EDR signals in order to illustrate quadratic phase-coupling that can be observed among signal components with different frequencies. From this perspective, in the proposed algorithm, a new feature set based on a higher order spectrum of HRV and EDR signals is introduced and it is utilized to extract information regarding their non-linearity and non-Gaussianity. This feature vector is then fed into the input of a least-square support vector machine classifier. To implement the proposed method, the apnea-ECG database, which contains 70 nocturnal ECG records gathered from volunteer men and women, is used in this work. Results obtained from cross-validating 35 data records show that the normal recordings could be separated from the apneic recordings with an accuracy of 95.57% and a sensitivity and specificity of 98.64% and 92.51%, respectively. In addition, 35 other records were used for a pure independent validation of the proposed method and the obtained accuracy, sensitivity and specificity was 94.12%, 93.46% and 94.79% respectively in OSA episode detection. The performance of our proposed technique is better than in other existing approaches. It can be used as a reliable tool for automatic OSA identification and as a result, it will improve medical services.