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Lubasinski N, Thabit H, Nutter PW, Harper S. Blood Glucose Prediction from Nutrition Analytics in Type 1 Diabetes: A Review. Nutrients 2024; 16:2214. [PMID: 39064657 PMCID: PMC11280346 DOI: 10.3390/nu16142214] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/16/2024] [Revised: 07/06/2024] [Accepted: 07/08/2024] [Indexed: 07/28/2024] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) affects over 9 million worldwide and necessitates meticulous self-management for blood glucose (BG) control. Utilizing BG prediction technology allows for increased BG control and a reduction in the diabetes burden caused by self-management requirements. This paper reviews BG prediction models in T1D, which include nutritional components. METHOD A systematic search, utilizing the PRISMA guidelines, identified articles focusing on BG prediction algorithms for T1D that incorporate nutritional variables. Eligible studies were screened and analyzed for model type, inclusion of additional aspects in the model, prediction horizon, patient population, inputs, and accuracy. RESULTS The study categorizes 138 blood glucose prediction models into data-driven (54%), physiological (14%), and hybrid (33%) types. Prediction horizons of ≤30 min are used in 36% of models, 31-60 min in 34%, 61-90 min in 11%, 91-120 min in 10%, and >120 min in 9%. Neural networks are the most used data-driven technique (47%), and simple carbohydrate intake is commonly included in models (data-driven: 72%, physiological: 52%, hybrid: 67%). Real or free-living data are predominantly used (83%). CONCLUSION The primary goal of blood glucose prediction in T1D is to enable informed decisions and maintain safe BG levels, considering the impact of all nutrients for meal planning and clinical relevance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nicole Lubasinski
- Department of Computer Science, The University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL, UK; (P.W.N.); (S.H.)
| | - Hood Thabit
- Diabetes, Endocrine and Metabolism Centre, Manchester Royal Infirmary, Manchester University NHS, Manchester M13 9WL, UK;
- Division of Diabetes, Endocrinology and Gastroenterology, School of Medical Science, The University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9NT, UK
| | - Paul W. Nutter
- Department of Computer Science, The University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL, UK; (P.W.N.); (S.H.)
| | - Simon Harper
- Department of Computer Science, The University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL, UK; (P.W.N.); (S.H.)
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2
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Pavan J, Noaro G, Facchinetti A, Salvagnin D, Sparacino G, Del Favero S. A strategy based on integer programming for optimal dosing and timing of preventive hypoglycemic treatments in type 1 diabetes management. COMPUTER METHODS AND PROGRAMS IN BIOMEDICINE 2024; 250:108179. [PMID: 38642427 DOI: 10.1016/j.cmpb.2024.108179] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/04/2024] [Revised: 03/29/2024] [Accepted: 04/13/2024] [Indexed: 04/22/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES One of the major problems related to type 1 diabetes (T1D) management is hypoglycemia, a condition characterized by low blood glucose levels and responsible for reduced quality of life and increased mortality. Fast-acting carbohydrates, also known as hypoglycemic treatments (HT), can counteract this event. In the literature, dosage and timing of HT are usually based on heuristic rules. In the present work, we propose an algorithm for mitigating hypoglycemia by suggesting preventive HT consumption, with dosages and timing determined by solving an optimization problem. METHODS By leveraging integer programming and linear inequality constraints, the algorithm can bind the amount of suggested carbohydrates to standardized quantities (i.e., those available in "off-the-shelf" HT) and the minimal distance between consecutive suggestions (to reduce the nuisance for patients). RESULTS The proposed method was tested in silico and compared with competitor algorithms using the UVa/Padova T1D simulator. At the cost of a slight increase of HT consumed per day, the proposed algorithm produces the lowest median and interquartile range of the time spent in hypoglycemia, with a statistically significant improvement over most competitor algorithms. Also, the average number of hypoglycemic events per day is reduced to 0 in median. CONCLUSIONS Thanks to its positive performances and reduced computational burden, the proposed algorithm could be a candidate tool for integration in a DSS aimed at improving T1D management.
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Affiliation(s)
- J Pavan
- Department of Information Engineering, University of Padova, Via Gradenigo 6/A, Padova, 35131, Italy.
| | - G Noaro
- Department of Information Engineering, University of Padova, Via Gradenigo 6/A, Padova, 35131, Italy.
| | - A Facchinetti
- Department of Information Engineering, University of Padova, Via Gradenigo 6/A, Padova, 35131, Italy.
| | - D Salvagnin
- Department of Information Engineering, University of Padova, Via Gradenigo 6/A, Padova, 35131, Italy.
| | - G Sparacino
- Department of Information Engineering, University of Padova, Via Gradenigo 6/A, Padova, 35131, Italy.
| | - S Del Favero
- Department of Information Engineering, University of Padova, Via Gradenigo 6/A, Padova, 35131, Italy.
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3
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Ahmed BM, Ali ME, Masud MM, Azad MR, Naznin M. After-meal blood glucose level prediction for type-2 diabetic patients. Heliyon 2024; 10:e28855. [PMID: 38617952 PMCID: PMC11015419 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e28855] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/11/2023] [Revised: 03/16/2024] [Accepted: 03/26/2024] [Indexed: 04/16/2024] Open
Abstract
Type 2 Diabetes, a metabolic disorder disease, is becoming a fast growing health crisis worldwide. It reduces the quality of life, and increases mortality and health care costs unless managed well. After-meal blood glucose level measure is considered as one of the most fundamental and well-recognized steps in managing Type 2 diabetes as it guides a user to make better plans of their diet and thus control the diabetes well. In this paper, we propose a data-driven approach to predict the 2 h after meal blood glucose level from the previous discrete blood glucose readings, meal, exercise, medication, & profile information of Type 2 diabetes patients. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to use discrete blood glucose readings for 2 h after meal blood glucose level prediction using data-driven models. In this study, we have collected data from five prediabetic and diabetic patients in free living conditions for six months. We have presented comparative experimental study using different popular machine learning models including support vector regression, random forest, and extreme gradient boosting, and two deep layer techniques: multilayer perceptron, and convolutional neural network. We present also the impact of different features in blood glucose level prediction, where we observe that meal has some modest and medication has a good influence on blood glucose level.
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Affiliation(s)
- Benzir Md Ahmed
- Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka, 1000, Bangladesh
- Department of Computer Science and Engineering, United International University, Dhaka, 1212, Bangladesh
| | - Mohammed Eunus Ali
- Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka, 1000, Bangladesh
| | | | | | - Mahmuda Naznin
- Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka, 1000, Bangladesh
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Zafar A, Lewis DM, Shahid A. Long-Term Glucose Forecasting for Open-Source Automated Insulin Delivery Systems: A Machine Learning Study with Real-World Variability Analysis. Healthcare (Basel) 2023; 11:healthcare11060779. [PMID: 36981436 PMCID: PMC10048652 DOI: 10.3390/healthcare11060779] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/06/2023] [Revised: 03/03/2023] [Accepted: 03/04/2023] [Indexed: 03/30/2023] Open
Abstract
Glucose forecasting serves as a backbone for several healthcare applications, including real-time insulin dosing in people with diabetes and physical activity optimization. This paper presents a study on the use of machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) methods for predicting glucose variability (GV) in individuals with open-source automated insulin delivery systems (AID). A three-stage experimental framework is employed in this work to systematically implement and evaluate ML/DL methods on a large-scale diabetes dataset collected from individuals with open-source AID. The first stage involves data collection, the second stage involves data preparation and exploratory analysis, and the third stage involves developing, fine-tuning, and evaluating ML/DL models. The performance and resource costs of the models are evaluated alongside relative and proportional errors for 17 GV metrics. Evaluation of fine-tuned ML/DL models shows considerable accuracy in glucose forecasting and variability analysis up to 48 h in advance. The average MAE ranges from 2.50 mg/dL for long short-term memory models (LSTM) to 4.94 mg/dL for autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, and the RMSE ranges from 3.7 mg/dL for LSTM to 7.67 mg/dL for ARIMA. Model execution time is proportional to the amount of data used for training, with long short-term memory models having the lowest execution time but the highest memory consumption compared to other models. This work successfully incorporates the use of appropriate programming frameworks, concurrency-enhancing tools, and resource and storage cost estimators to encourage the sustainable use of ML/DL in real-world AID systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ahtsham Zafar
- School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, National University of Sciences and Technology, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan
| | | | - Arsalan Shahid
- CeADAR-Ireland's Centre for Applied AI, University College Dublin, D04 V2N9 Dublin, Ireland
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5
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Feature Transformation for Efficient Blood Glucose Prediction in Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus Patients. Diagnostics (Basel) 2023; 13:diagnostics13030340. [PMID: 36766445 PMCID: PMC9913914 DOI: 10.3390/diagnostics13030340] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/20/2022] [Revised: 01/11/2023] [Accepted: 01/15/2023] [Indexed: 01/19/2023] Open
Abstract
Diabetes Mellitus, a metabolic disease, causes the body to lose control over blood glucose regulation. With recent advances in self-monitoring systems, a patient can access their personalized glycemic profile and may utilize it for efficient prediction of future blood glucose levels. An efficient diabetes management system demands the accurate estimation of blood glucose levels, which, apart from using an appropriate prediction algorithm, depends on discriminative data representation. In this research work, a transformation of event-based data into discriminative continuous features is proposed. Moreover, a multi-layered long short-term memory (LSTM)-based recurrent neural network is developed for the prediction of blood glucose levels in patients with type 1 diabetes. The proposed method is used to forecast the blood glucose level on a prediction horizon of 30 and 60 min. The results are evaluated for three patients using the Ohio T1DM dataset. The proposed scheme achieves the lowest RMSE score of 14.76 mg/dL and 25.48 mg/dL for prediction horizons of 30 min and 60 min, respectively. The suggested methodology can be utilized in closed-loop systems for precise insulin delivery to type 1 patients for better glycemic control.
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Alizamir A, Gholami A, Bahrami N, Ostadhassan M. Refractive Index of Hemoglobin Analysis: A Comparison of Alternating Conditional Expectations and Computational Intelligence Models. ACS OMEGA 2022; 7:33769-33782. [PMID: 36188321 PMCID: PMC9520688 DOI: 10.1021/acsomega.2c00746] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/05/2022] [Accepted: 08/30/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Hemoglobin is one of the most important blood elements, and its optical properties will determine all other optical properties of human blood. Since the refractive index (RI) of hemoglobin plays a vital role as a non-invasive indicator of some illnesses, accurate calculation of it would be of great importance. Moreover, measurement of the RI of hemoglobin in the laboratory is time-consuming and expensive; thus, developing a smart approach to estimate this parameter is necessary. In this research, four viable strategies were used to make a quantitative correlation between the RI of hemoglobin and its influencing parameters including the concentration, wavelength, and temperature. First, alternating conditional expectations (ACE), a statistical approach, was employed to generate a correlation to predict the RI of hemoglobin. Then, three different optimized intelligent techniques-optimized neural network (ONN), optimized fuzzy inference system (OFIS), and optimized support vector regression (OSVR)-were used to model the RI. A bat-inspired (BA) algorithm was embedded in the formulation of intelligent models to obtain the optimal values of weights and biases of an artificial neural network, membership functions of the fuzzy inference system, and free parameters of support vector regression. The coefficient of determination, root-mean-square error, average absolute relative error, and symmetric mean absolute percentage error for each of the ACE, ONN, OFIS, and OSVR were found as the measure of each model's accuracy. Results showed that ACE and optimized models (ONN, OFIS, and OSVR) have promising results in the estimation of hemoglobin's RI. Collectively, ACE outperformed ONN, OFIS, and OSVR, while sensitivity analysis indicated that the concentration, wavelength, and, lastly, temperature would have the highest impact on the RI.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aida Alizamir
- Department
of Pathology, School of Medicine, Hamadan
University of Medical Science, Hamadan 6517838738, Iran
| | - Amin Gholami
- Reservoir
Division, Iranian Offshore Oil Company, Tehran 1966653943, Iran
| | - Nader Bahrami
- Financial
Transaction Department, Carsome Company, Petaling Jaya, Selangor 47800, Malaysia
| | - Mehdi Ostadhassan
- Department
of Geology, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad 9177948974, Iran
- Institute
of Geosciences, Marine and Land Geomechanics and Geotectonics, Christian-Albrechts-Universität, Kiel 24118, Germany
- Key
Laboratory of Continental Shale Hydrocarbon Accumulation and Efficient
Development, Ministry of Education, Northeast
Petroleum University, Daqing 163318, China
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Timilsina M, Tandan M, Nováček V. Machine learning approaches for predicting the onset time of the adverse drug events in oncology. MACHINE LEARNING WITH APPLICATIONS 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.mlwa.2022.100367] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
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8
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Machine Learning and Smart Devices for Diabetes Management: Systematic Review. SENSORS 2022; 22:s22051843. [PMID: 35270989 PMCID: PMC8915068 DOI: 10.3390/s22051843] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/16/2021] [Revised: 02/05/2022] [Accepted: 02/18/2022] [Indexed: 01/27/2023]
Abstract
(1) Background: The use of smart devices to better manage diabetes has increased significantly in recent years. These technologies have been introduced in order to make life easier for patients with diabetes by allowing better control of the stability of blood sugar levels and anticipating the occurrence of dangerous events (hypo/hyperglycemia), etc. That being said, the main objectives of the self-management of diabetes is to improve the lifestyle and life quality of patients with diabetes; (2) Methods: We performed a systematic review based on articles that focus on the use of smart devices for the monitoring and better management of diabetes. The search was focused on keywords related to the topic, such as “Diabetes”, “Technology”, “Self-management”, “Artificial Intelligence”, etc. This was performed using databases, such as Scopus, Google Scholar, and PubMed; (3) Results: A total of 89 studies, published between 2011 and 2021, were included. The majority of the selected research aims to solve a diabetes management problem (e.g., blood glucose prediction, early detection of risk events, and the automatic adjustment of insulin doses, etc.). In these studies, wearable devices were used in combination with artificial intelligence (AI) techniques; (4) Conclusions: Wearable devices have attracted a great deal of scientific interest in the field of healthcare for people with chronic conditions, such as diabetes. They are capable of assisting in the management of diabetes, as well as preventing complications associated with this condition. Furthermore, the usage of these devices has improved illness management and quality of life.
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10
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GLYFE: review and benchmark of personalized glucose predictive models in type 1 diabetes. Med Biol Eng Comput 2021; 60:1-17. [PMID: 34751904 DOI: 10.1007/s11517-021-02437-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2021] [Accepted: 08/20/2021] [Indexed: 10/19/2022]
Abstract
Due to the sensitive nature of diabetes-related data, preventing them from being easily shared between studies, and the wide discrepancies in their data processing pipeline, progress in the field of glucose prediction is hard to assess. To address this issue, we introduce GLYFE (GLYcemia Forecasting Evaluation), a benchmark of machine learning-based glucose predictive models. We present the accuracy and clinical acceptability of nine different models coming from the literature, from standard autoregressive to more complex neural network-based models. These results are obtained on two different datasets, namely UVA/Padova Type 1 Diabetes Metabolic Simulator (T1DMS) and Ohio Type-1 Diabetes Mellitus (OhioT1DM), featuring artificial and real type 1 diabetic patients respectively. By providing extensive details about the data flow as well as by providing the whole source code of the benchmarking process, we ensure the reproducibility of the results and the usability of the benchmark by the community. Those results serve as a basis of comparison for future studies. In a field where data are hard to obtain, and where the comparison of results from different studies is often irrelevant, GLYFE gives the opportunity of gathering researchers around a standardized common environment.
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11
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Diouri O, Cigler M, Vettoretti M, Mader JK, Choudhary P, Renard E. Hypoglycaemia detection and prediction techniques: A systematic review on the latest developments. Diabetes Metab Res Rev 2021; 37:e3449. [PMID: 33763974 PMCID: PMC8519027 DOI: 10.1002/dmrr.3449] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/08/2020] [Revised: 12/08/2020] [Accepted: 01/28/2021] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
The main objective of diabetes control is to correct hyperglycaemia while avoiding hypoglycaemia, especially in insulin-treated patients. Fear of hypoglycaemia is a hurdle to effective correction of hyperglycaemia because it promotes under-dosing of insulin. Strategies to minimise hypoglycaemia include education and training for improved hypoglycaemia awareness and the development of technologies to allow their early detection and thus minimise their occurrence. Patients with impaired hypoglycaemia awareness would benefit the most from these technologies. The purpose of this systematic review is to review currently available or in-development technologies that support detection of hypoglycaemia or hypoglycaemia risk, and identify gaps in the research. Nanomaterial use in sensors is a promising strategy to increase the accuracy of continuous glucose monitoring devices for low glucose values. Hypoglycaemia is associated with changes on vital signs, so electrocardiogram and encephalogram could also be used to detect hypoglycaemia. Accuracy improvements through multivariable measures can make already marketed galvanic skin response devices a good noninvasive alternative. Breath volatile organic compounds can be detected by dogs and devices and alert patients at hypoglycaemia onset, while near-infrared spectroscopy can also be used as a hypoglycaemia alarms. Finally, one of the main directions of research are deep learning algorithms to analyse continuous glucose monitoring data and provide earlier and more accurate prediction of hypoglycaemia. Current developments for early identification of hypoglycaemia risk combine improvements of available 'needle-type' enzymatic glucose sensors and noninvasive alternatives. Patient usability will be essential to demonstrate to allow their implementation for daily use in diabetes management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Omar Diouri
- Department of Endocrinology, Diabetes, NutritionMontpellier University HospitalMontpellierFrance
- Department of PhysiologyInstitute of Functional Genomics, CNRS, INSERMUniversity of MontpellierMontpellierFrance
| | - Monika Cigler
- Division of Endocrinology and DiabetologyDepartment of Internal MedicineMedical University of GrazGrazAustria
| | | | - Julia K. Mader
- Division of Endocrinology and DiabetologyDepartment of Internal MedicineMedical University of GrazGrazAustria
| | - Pratik Choudhary
- Department of Diabetes and Nutritional SciencesKing's College LondonLondonUK
- Diabetes Research CentreUniversity of LeicesterLeicesterUK
| | - Eric Renard
- Department of Endocrinology, Diabetes, NutritionMontpellier University HospitalMontpellierFrance
- Department of PhysiologyInstitute of Functional Genomics, CNRS, INSERMUniversity of MontpellierMontpellierFrance
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Cichosz SL, Kronborg T, Jensen MH, Hejlesen O. Penalty weighted glucose prediction models could lead to better clinically usage. Comput Biol Med 2021; 138:104865. [PMID: 34543891 DOI: 10.1016/j.compbiomed.2021.104865] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/02/2021] [Revised: 08/27/2021] [Accepted: 09/10/2021] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE Numerous attempts to predict glucose value from continuous glucose monitors (CGM) have been published. However, there is a lack of proper analysis and modeling of penalty for errors in different glycemic ranges. The aim of this study was to investigate the potential for developing glucose prediction models with focus on the clinical aspects. METHODS We developed and compared six different models to test which approach were best suited for predicting glucose levels at different lead times between 10 and 60 min. The models were: last observation carried forward, linear extrapolation, ensemble methods using LSBoost and bagging, neural networks, one without error-weights and one with error-weights. The modeling and test were based on 225 type 1 diabetes patients with 315,000 h of CGM data. RESULTS Results show that it is possible to predict glucose levels based on CGM with a reasonable accuracy and precision with a 30-min prediction lead time. A comparison of different methods shows that there are improvements on performance gained from using more advanced machine learning algorithms (MARD 10.26-10.79 @ 30-min lead time) compared to a simple modeling (MARD 10.75-12.97 @ 30-min lead time). Moreover, the proposed use of error weights could lead to better clinical performance of these models, which is an important factor for real usage. E.g., the percentages in the C-zone of the consensus error grid without error-weights (0.57-0.68%) vs including error-weights (0.28%). CONCLUSIONS The results point toward that using error weighting in the training of the models could lead to better clinical performance.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Thomas Kronborg
- Department of Health Science and Technology, Aalborg University, Denmark
| | - Morten Hasselstrøm Jensen
- Department of Health Science and Technology, Aalborg University, Denmark; Steno Diabetes Center North Denmark, Aalborg University Hospital, Aalborg, Denmark
| | - Ole Hejlesen
- Department of Health Science and Technology, Aalborg University, Denmark
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13
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Faccioli S, Facchinetti A, Sparacino G, Pillonetto G, Del Favero S. Linear Model Identification for Personalized Prediction and Control in Diabetes. IEEE Trans Biomed Eng 2021; 69:558-568. [PMID: 34347589 DOI: 10.1109/tbme.2021.3101589] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/06/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Type-1 diabetes (T1D) is a metabolic disease, characterized by impaired blood glucose (BG) regulation, which forces patients to multiple daily therapeutic actions, the most critical of which is exogenous insulin administration. T1D management can considerably benefit of mathematical models enabling accurate BG predictions and effective/safe automated insulin delivery. In building these models, dealing with large inter- and intra-patient variability in glucose-insulin dynamics represents a major challenge. The aim of the present work is to assess linear black-box methods, including a novel non-parametric methodology, for learning individualized models of glucose response to insulin and meal, suitable for model-based prediction and control. METHODS We focus on data-driven techniques for linear model-learning and compare the state-of-art parametric pipeline, exploring all its degrees of freedom (including population vs. individualized parameter identification, model class chosen among ARX/ARMAX/ARIMAX/Box-Jenkins, model order selection criteria, etc.), with a novel non-parametric approach based on Gaussian regression and stable spline kernel. By using data collected in 11 T1D individuals, we evaluate effectiveness of the different models by measuring root mean squared error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (COD), and time gain of the associated BG predictors. RESULTS Among the tested approaches, the non-parametric technique results in the best prediction performance: median RMSE=29.8mg/dL, and median COD=57.4%, for a prediction horizon (PH) of 60 min. With respect to the state-of-the-art parametric techniques, the non-parametric approach grants a COD improvement of about 2%, 7%, 21%, and 41% for PH = 30, 60, 90, and 120 min (paired-sample t-test p 0.001, p=0.003, p=0.03, and p=0.07 respectively). CONCLUSION Non-parametric linear model-learning grants statistically significant improvement with respect to the state-of-art parametric approach. The higher PH, the more pronounced the improvement. SIGNIFICANCE The use of a linear non-parametric model-learning approach for model-based prediction and control could bring to a more prompt, safe and effective T1D management.
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Zhang Y, Sun J, Liu L, Qiao H. A review of biosensor technology and algorithms for glucose monitoring. J Diabetes Complications 2021; 35:107929. [PMID: 33902999 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdiacomp.2021.107929] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/17/2021] [Revised: 03/30/2021] [Accepted: 04/11/2021] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Abstract
Diabetes mellitus (DM) has become a serious illness in the whole world. Until now, there is no effective cure for patients with DM. It is well known that the glucose level is one key factor to determine the progress of DM. It is also an important reference to carry out the accurate and timely treatment for patients with DM. In this article, the related biosensors technology that can be utilized to identify and predict glucose level are reviewed in detail, including the algorithms that can help to achieve numerical value of glucose level. Firstly, the biosensor technology based on the physiological fluids are illustrated, including blood, sweat, interstitial fluid, ocular fluid, and other available fluids. Secondly, the algorithms for achieving numerical value of glucose level are investigated, including the physiological model-based method and the machine learning-based method. Finally, the future development trend and challenges of glucose level monitoring are given and the conclusions are drawn.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yaguang Zhang
- The Second Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Harbin, Heilongjiang 150086, China
| | - Jingxue Sun
- The Second Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Harbin, Heilongjiang 150086, China
| | - Liansheng Liu
- School of Electronics and Information Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150080, China
| | - Hong Qiao
- The Second Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Harbin, Heilongjiang 150086, China.
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15
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Zhang M, Flores KB, Tran HT. Deep learning and regression approaches to forecasting blood glucose levels for type 1 diabetes. Biomed Signal Process Control 2021. [DOI: 10.1016/j.bspc.2021.102923] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/24/2022]
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Dave D, DeSalvo DJ, Haridas B, McKay S, Shenoy A, Koh CJ, Lawley M, Erraguntla M. Feature-Based Machine Learning Model for Real-Time Hypoglycemia Prediction. J Diabetes Sci Technol 2021; 15:842-855. [PMID: 32476492 PMCID: PMC8258517 DOI: 10.1177/1932296820922622] [Citation(s) in RCA: 40] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Hypoglycemia is a serious health concern in youth with type 1 diabetes (T1D). Real-time data from continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) can be used to predict hypoglycemic risk, allowing patients to take timely intervention measures. METHODS A machine learning model is developed for probabilistic prediction of hypoglycemia (<70 mg/dL) in 30- and 60-minute time horizons based on CGM datasets obtained from 112 patients over a range of 90 days consisting of over 1.6 million CGM values under normal living conditions. A comprehensive set of features relevant for hypoglycemia are developed and a parsimonious subset with most influence on predicting hypoglycemic risk is identified. Model performance is evaluated both with and without contextual information on insulin and carbohydrate intake. RESULTS The model predicted hypoglycemia with >91% sensitivity for 30- and 60-minute prediction horizons while maintaining specificity >90%. Inclusion of insulin and carbohydrate data yielded performance improvement for 60-minute but not for 30-minute predictions. Model performance was highest for nocturnal hypoglycemia (~95% sensitivity). Shortterm (less than one hour) and medium-term (one to four hours) features for good prediction performance are identified. CONCLUSIONS Innovative feature identification facilitated high performance for hypoglycemia risk prediction in pediatric youth with T1D. Timely alerts of impending hypoglycemia may enable proactive measures to avoid severe hypoglycemia and achieve optimal glycemic control. The model will be deployed on a patient-facing smartphone application in an upcoming pilot study.
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Affiliation(s)
- Darpit Dave
- Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA
| | - Daniel J. DeSalvo
- Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA
- Texas Children’s Hospital, Houston, TX, USA
| | - Balakrishna Haridas
- Department of Biomedical Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA
| | - Siripoom McKay
- Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA
- Texas Children’s Hospital, Houston, TX, USA
| | | | - Chester J. Koh
- Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA
- Texas Children’s Hospital, Houston, TX, USA
| | - Mark Lawley
- Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA
| | - Madhav Erraguntla
- Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA
- Madhav Erraguntla, PhD, Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Texas A&M University, 4021 Emerging Technology Building, College Station, TX 77843, USA.
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De Paoli B, D’Antoni F, Merone M, Pieralice S, Piemonte V, Pozzilli P. Blood Glucose Level Forecasting on Type-1-Diabetes Subjects during Physical Activity: A Comparative Analysis of Different Learning Techniques. Bioengineering (Basel) 2021; 8:bioengineering8060072. [PMID: 34073433 PMCID: PMC8229703 DOI: 10.3390/bioengineering8060072] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/19/2021] [Revised: 05/17/2021] [Accepted: 05/22/2021] [Indexed: 01/26/2023] Open
Abstract
Background: Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus (T1DM) is a widespread chronic disease in industrialized countries. Preventing blood glucose levels from exceeding the euglycaemic range would reduce the incidence of diabetes-related complications and improve the quality of life of subjects with T1DM. As a consequence, in the last decade, many Machine Learning algorithms aiming to forecast future blood glucose levels have been proposed. Despite the excellent performance they obtained, the prediction of abrupt changes in blood glucose values produced during physical activity (PA) is still one of the main challenges. Methods: A Jump Neural Network was developed in order to overcome the issue of predicting blood glucose values during PA. Three learning configurations were developed and tested: offline training, online training, and online training with reinforcement. All configurations were tested on six subjects suffering from T1DM that held regular PA (three aerobic and three anaerobic) and exploited Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM). Results: The forecasting performance was evaluated in terms of the Root-Mean-Squared-Error (RMSE), according to a paradigm of Precision Medicine. Conclusions: The online learning configurations performed better than the offline configuration in total days but not on the only CGM associated with the PA; thus, the results do not justify the increased computational burden because the improvement was not significant.
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Affiliation(s)
- Benedetta De Paoli
- Unit of Computer Systems and Bioinformatics, Department of Engineering, Università Campus Bio-Medico di Roma, 00128 Rome, Italy; (B.D.P.); (F.D.)
| | - Federico D’Antoni
- Unit of Computer Systems and Bioinformatics, Department of Engineering, Università Campus Bio-Medico di Roma, 00128 Rome, Italy; (B.D.P.); (F.D.)
| | - Mario Merone
- Unit of Computer Systems and Bioinformatics, Department of Engineering, Università Campus Bio-Medico di Roma, 00128 Rome, Italy; (B.D.P.); (F.D.)
- Correspondence: ; Tel.: +39-06-225-419-622
| | - Silvia Pieralice
- Unit of Diabetology and Endocrinology, Department of Medicine, Università Campus Bio-Medico di Roma, 00128 Rome, Italy; (S.P.); (P.P.)
| | - Vincenzo Piemonte
- Unit of Chemical Engineering, Department of Engineering, Università Campus Bio-Medico di Roma, 00128 Rome, Italy;
| | - Paolo Pozzilli
- Unit of Diabetology and Endocrinology, Department of Medicine, Università Campus Bio-Medico di Roma, 00128 Rome, Italy; (S.P.); (P.P.)
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Dave D, Erraguntla M, Lawley M, DeSalvo D, Haridas B, McKay S, Koh C. Improved Low-Glucose Predictive Alerts Based on Sustained Hypoglycemia: Model Development and Validation Study. JMIR Diabetes 2021; 6:e26909. [PMID: 33913816 PMCID: PMC8120423 DOI: 10.2196/26909] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/03/2021] [Revised: 03/09/2021] [Accepted: 03/17/2021] [Indexed: 12/17/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Predictive alerts for impending hypoglycemic events enable persons with type 1 diabetes to take preventive actions and avoid serious consequences. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to develop a prediction model for hypoglycemic events with a low false alert rate, high sensitivity and specificity, and good generalizability to new patients and time periods. METHODS Performance improvement by focusing on sustained hypoglycemic events, defined as glucose values less than 70 mg/dL for at least 15 minutes, was explored. Two different modeling approaches were considered: (1) a classification-based method to directly predict sustained hypoglycemic events, and (2) a regression-based prediction of glucose at multiple time points in the prediction horizon and subsequent inference of sustained hypoglycemia. To address the generalizability and robustness of the model, two different validation mechanisms were considered: (1) patient-based validation (model performance was evaluated on new patients), and (2) time-based validation (model performance was evaluated on new time periods). RESULTS This study utilized data from 110 patients over 30-90 days comprising 1.6 million continuous glucose monitoring values under normal living conditions. The model accurately predicted sustained events with >97% sensitivity and specificity for both 30- and 60-minute prediction horizons. The false alert rate was kept to <25%. The results were consistent across patient- and time-based validation strategies. CONCLUSIONS Providing alerts focused on sustained events instead of all hypoglycemic events reduces the false alert rate and improves sensitivity and specificity. It also results in models that have better generalizability to new patients and time periods.
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Affiliation(s)
- Darpit Dave
- Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, United States
| | - Madhav Erraguntla
- Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, United States
| | - Mark Lawley
- Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, United States
| | - Daniel DeSalvo
- Department of Pediatrics, Baylor College of Medicine / Texas Children's Hospital, Houston, TX, United States
| | - Balakrishna Haridas
- Department of Biomedical Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, United States
| | - Siripoom McKay
- Department of Pediatrics, Baylor College of Medicine / Texas Children's Hospital, Houston, TX, United States
| | - Chester Koh
- Division of Pediatric Urology, Texas Children's Hospital, Houston, TX, United States
- Scott Department of Urology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, United States
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19
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Cichosz SL, Jensen MH, Hejlesen O. Short-term prediction of future continuous glucose monitoring readings in type 1 diabetes: Development and validation of a neural network regression model. Int J Med Inform 2021; 151:104472. [PMID: 33932763 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijmedinf.2021.104472] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/14/2020] [Revised: 04/07/2021] [Accepted: 04/22/2021] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE CGM systems are still subject to a time-delay, which especially during rapid changes causes clinically significant difference between the CGM and the actual BG level. This study had the aim of exploring the potential of developing and validating a model for prediction of future CGM measurements in order to overcome the time-delay. METHODS An artificial neural network regression (NN) approach were used to predict CGM values with a lead-time of 15 min. The NN were trained and internally validated on 23 million minutes of CGM and externally validated on 2 million minutes of CGM. The validation included data from 278 type 1 diabetes patients using three different CGM sensors. The NN performance were compared with three alternative methods, linear extrapolation, spline extrapolation and last observation carried forward. RESULTS The internal validation yielded a RMSE of 9.1 mg/dL, a MARD of 4.2 % and 99.9 % of predictions were in the A + B zone of the consensus error grid. The external validation yielded a RMSE of 5.9-11.3 mg/dL, a MARD of 3.2-5.4 % and 99.9-100 % of predictions were in the A + B zone of the consensus error grid. The NN performed better on all parameters compared to the two alternative methods. CONCLUSIONS We proposed and validated a NN glucose prediction model that is potential simple to use and implement. The model only needs input from a CGM system in order to facilitate glucose prediction with a lead time of 15 min. The approach yielded good results for both internal and external validation.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Morten Hasselstrøm Jensen
- Department of Health Science and Technology, Aalborg University, Denmark; Steno Diabetes Center North Denmark, Aalborg University Hospital, Aalborg, Denmark
| | - Ole Hejlesen
- Department of Health Science and Technology, Aalborg University, Denmark
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20
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Data size considerations and hyperparameter choices in case-based reasoning approach to glucose prediction. Biocybern Biomed Eng 2021. [DOI: 10.1016/j.bbe.2021.04.013] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
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21
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Prendin F, Del Favero S, Vettoretti M, Sparacino G, Facchinetti A. Forecasting of Glucose Levels and Hypoglycemic Events: Head-to-Head Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Data-Driven Algorithms Based on Continuous Glucose Monitoring Data Only. SENSORS 2021; 21:s21051647. [PMID: 33673415 PMCID: PMC7956406 DOI: 10.3390/s21051647] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/22/2021] [Revised: 02/19/2021] [Accepted: 02/23/2021] [Indexed: 02/03/2023]
Abstract
In type 1 diabetes management, the availability of algorithms capable of accurately forecasting future blood glucose (BG) concentrations and hypoglycemic episodes could enable proactive therapeutic actions, e.g., the consumption of carbohydrates to mitigate, or even avoid, an impending critical event. The only input of this kind of algorithm is often continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) sensor data, because other signals (such as injected insulin, ingested carbs, and physical activity) are frequently unavailable. Several predictive algorithms fed by CGM data only have been proposed in the literature, but they were assessed using datasets originated by different experimental protocols, making a comparison of their relative merits difficult. The aim of the present work was to perform a head-to-head comparison of thirty different linear and nonlinear predictive algorithms using the same dataset, given by 124 CGM traces collected over 10 days with the newest Dexcom G6 sensor available on the market and considering a 30-min prediction horizon. We considered the state-of-the art methods, investigating, in particular, linear black-box methods (autoregressive; autoregressive moving-average; and autoregressive integrated moving-average, ARIMA) and nonlinear machine-learning methods (support vector regression, SVR; regression random forest; feed-forward neural network, fNN; and long short-term memory neural network). For each method, the prediction accuracy and hypoglycemia detection capabilities were assessed using either population or individualized model parameters. As far as prediction accuracy is concerned, the results show that the best linear algorithm (individualized ARIMA) provides accuracy comparable to that of the best nonlinear algorithm (individualized fNN), with root mean square errors of 22.15 and 21.52 mg/dL, respectively. As far as hypoglycemia detection is concerned, the best linear algorithm (individualized ARIMA) provided precision = 64%, recall = 82%, and one false alarm/day, comparable to the best nonlinear technique (population SVR): precision = 63%, recall = 69%, and 0.5 false alarms/day. In general, the head-to-head comparison of the thirty algorithms fed by CGM data only made using a wide dataset shows that individualized linear models are more effective than population ones, while no significant advantages seem to emerge when employing nonlinear methodologies.
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22
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Saiti K, Macaš M, Lhotská L, Štechová K, Pithová P. Ensemble methods in combination with compartment models for blood glucose level prediction in type 1 diabetes mellitus. COMPUTER METHODS AND PROGRAMS IN BIOMEDICINE 2020; 196:105628. [PMID: 32640369 DOI: 10.1016/j.cmpb.2020.105628] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/15/2020] [Accepted: 06/21/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Backgroung: Type 1 diabetes is a disease that adversely affects the daily life of a large percentage of people worldwide. Daily glucose levels regulation and useful advices provided to patients regarding their diet are essential for diabetes treatment. For this reason, the interest of the academic community has focused on developing innovative systems, such as decision support systems, based on glucose prediction algorithms. The present work presents the predictive capabilities of ensemble methods compared to individual algorithms while combining each method with compartment models for fast acting insulin absorption simulation. Methods: An approach of combining widely used glycemia prediction algorithms is proposed and three different ensemble methods (Linear, Bagging and Boosting metaregressor) are applied and evaluated on their ability to provide accurate predictions for 30, 45 and 60 minutes ahead prediction horizon. Moreover, glycemia levels, long and short acting insulin dosages and consumed carbohydrates from six type one people with diabetes are used as input data and the results are evaluated in terms of root-mean square error and Clarke error grid analysis. Results: According to results, ensemble methods can provide more accurate glucose concentration in comparison to individual algorithms. Bagging metaregressor, specifically, performed better than individual algorithms in all prediction horizons for small datasets. Bagging ensemble method improved the percentage in zone A according to Clarkes error grid analysis by 4% and in some cases by 9%. Moreover, compartment models are proved to improve results in combination with any method at any prediction horizon. This strengthen the potential practical usefulness of the ensemble methods and the importance of building accurate compartment models.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kyriaki Saiti
- Department of Cybernetics, Czech Technical University in Prague, Czech Republic.
| | - Martin Macaš
- Czech Institute of Informatics, Robotics and Cybernetics, Czech Technical University in Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Lenka Lhotská
- Czech Institute of Informatics, Robotics and Cybernetics, Czech Technical University in Prague, Czech Republic
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23
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Isfahani MK, Zekri M, Marateb HR, Faghihimani E. A Hybrid Dynamic Wavelet-Based Modeling Method for Blood Glucose Concentration Prediction in Type 1 Diabetes. JOURNAL OF MEDICAL SIGNALS & SENSORS 2020; 10:174-184. [PMID: 33062609 PMCID: PMC7528985 DOI: 10.4103/jmss.jmss_62_19] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/11/2019] [Revised: 12/12/2019] [Accepted: 01/10/2020] [Indexed: 11/07/2022]
Abstract
Background: Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a chronic disease that affects public health. The prediction of blood glucose concentration (BGC) is essential to improve the therapy of type 1 DM (T1DM). Methods: Having considered the risk of hyper- and hypo-glycemia, we provide a new hybrid modeling approach for BGC prediction based on a dynamic wavelet neural network (WNN) model, including a heuristic input selection. The proposed models include a hybrid dynamic WNN (HDWNN) and a hybrid dynamic fuzzy WNN (HDFWNN). These wavelet-based networks are designed based on dominant wavelets selected by the genetic algorithm-orthogonal least square method. Furthermore, the HDFWNN model structure is improved using fuzzy rule induction, an important innovation in the fuzzy wavelet modeling. The proposed networks are tested on real data from 12 T1DM patients and also simulated data from 33 virtual patients with an UVa/ Padova simulator, an approved simulator by the US Food and Drug Administration. Results: A comparison study is performed in terms of new glucose-based assessment metrics, such as gFIT, glucose-weighted form of ESODn (gESODn), and glucose-weighted R2 (gR2). For real patients’ data, the values of the mentioned indices are accomplished as gFIT = 0.97 ± 0.01, gESODn = 1.18 ± 0.38, and gR2 = 0.88 ± 0.07. HDFWNN, HDWNN and jump NN method showed the prediction error (root mean square error [RMSE]) of 11.23 ± 2.77 mg/dl, 10.79 ± 3.86 mg/dl and 16.45 ± 4.33 mg/dl, respectively. Conclusion: Furthermore, the generalized estimating equation and post hoc tests show that proposed models perform better compared with other proposed methods.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Maryam Zekri
- Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan, Iran
| | - Hamid Reza Marateb
- Department of Biomedical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran.,Department of Automatic Control, Biomedical Engineering Research Center, Polytechnic University of Catalonia, Barcelona Tech, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Elham Faghihimani
- Isfahan Endocrine and Metabolism Research Center, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran
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24
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Alfian G, Syafrudin M, Anshari M, Benes F, Atmaji FTD, Fahrurrozi I, Hidayatullah AF, Rhee J. Blood glucose prediction model for type 1 diabetes based on artificial neural network with time-domain features. Biocybern Biomed Eng 2020. [DOI: 10.1016/j.bbe.2020.10.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/23/2022]
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25
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Nizam Ozogur H, Ozogur G, Orman Z. Blood glucose level prediction for diabetes based on modified fuzzy time series and particle swarm optimization. Comput Intell 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/coin.12396] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/25/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Hatice Nizam Ozogur
- Department of Computer Engineering Istanbul University‐Cerrahpasa Istanbul Turkey
| | - Gokhan Ozogur
- R&D Software Design Department, Arcelik A.S. Istanbul Turkey
| | - Zeynep Orman
- Department of Computer Engineering Istanbul University‐Cerrahpasa Istanbul Turkey
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26
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D’Antoni F, Merone M, Piemonte V, Iannello G, Soda P. Auto-Regressive Time Delayed jump neural network for blood glucose levels forecasting. Knowl Based Syst 2020. [DOI: 10.1016/j.knosys.2020.106134] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/31/2023]
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27
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Wang W, Wang S, Wang X, Liu D, Geng Y, Wu T. A Glucose-Insulin Mixture Model and Application to Short-Term Hypoglycemia Prediction in the Night Time. IEEE Trans Biomed Eng 2020; 68:834-845. [PMID: 32776874 DOI: 10.1109/tbme.2020.3015199] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Insulin-induced hypoglycemia is recognized as a critical problem for diabetic patients, especially at night. To give glucose prediction and advance warning of hypoglycemia of at least 30 minutes, various glucose-insulin models have been proposed. Recognizing the complementary nature of the models, this research proposes a Glucose-Insulin Mixture (GIM) model to predict the glucose values for hypoglycemia detection, by optimally fusing different models with its adjusted parameters to address the inter- and intra-individual variability. METHODS Two types of classic glucose-insulin models, the Ruan model, with single-compartment glucose kinetics, and the Hovorka model, with two-compartment glucose kinetics, are selected as two candidate models. Based on Bayesian inference, GIM is introduced with quantified contributions from the models with the associated parameters. GIM is then applied to predict the glucose values and hypoglycemia events. RESULTS The proposed model is validated by the nocturnal glucose data collected from 12 participants with type 1 diabetes. The GIM model has promising fitting of RMSE within 0.3465 mmol/L and predicting of RMSE within 0.5571 mmol/L. According to the literature, the hypoglycemia is defined as 3.9 mmol/L, and the GIM model shows good short-term hypoglycemia prediction performance with the data collected within the last hour (accuracy: 95.97%, precision: 91.77%, recall: 95.60%). In addition, the probability of hypoglycemia event in 30 minutes is inferred. CONCLUSION GIM, by fusing various glucose-insulin models via Bayesian inference, has the promise to capture glucose dynamics and predict hypoglycemia. SIGNIFICANCE GIM based short-term hypoglycemia prediction has potential clinical utility for timely intervention.
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28
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Amar Y, Shilo S, Oron T, Amar E, Phillip M, Segal E. Clinically Accurate Prediction of Glucose Levels in Patients with Type 1 Diabetes. Diabetes Technol Ther 2020; 22:562-569. [PMID: 31928415 DOI: 10.1089/dia.2019.0435] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/09/2023]
Abstract
Background and Aims: Accurate prediction of glucose levels in patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) is critical both for their glycemic control and for the development of closed-loop systems. Methods: In this study, we utilized real-life, retrospective, continuous glucose monitoring data from 141 T1DM patients (9,083 connection days, 1,592,506 glucose measurements) and in silico data generated by the UVA/Padova T1DM simulator to evaluate different computational methods for glucose prediction. We evaluated the performance of the models using both measures of numerical accuracy, measured by the root mean square error, and clinical accuracy, measured by the percentage of time in each of the Clarke error grid (CEG) zones, and compared the predictions done by autoregressive (AR) models, tree-based methods, artificial neural networks, and a novel model that we devised and optimized for this task. Results: Our novel model, constructed on real-life data, achieved clinical accuracy of 99.3% and 95.8% in predicting the glucose level 30 and 60 min ahead, respectively, and reduced the percentage of glucose predictions in zones C-E of the CEG by 60.6% and 38.4% in these prediction horizons, compared with a standard AR model. The model was superior to all other models across all age groups and achieved higher clinical accuracy in subgroups of patients with high glucose variability and greater time spent in hypoglycemia. Compared with real-life data, when evaluated on in silico data, the model had a higher clinical and numerical accuracy. Conclusions: A model that optimizes for CEG zones may significantly improve clinical accuracy and clinical outcomes of treatment decisions in T1DM patients. Results obtained from simulated data may overestimate the performance of models on real-life data.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yotam Amar
- Department of Computer Science and Applied Mathematics, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot, Israel
- Department of Molecular Cell Biology, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot, Israel
| | - Smadar Shilo
- Department of Computer Science and Applied Mathematics, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot, Israel
- Department of Molecular Cell Biology, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot, Israel
- Pediatric Diabetes Unit, Ruth Rappaport Children's Hospital, Rambam Healthcare Campus, Haifa, Israel
| | - Tal Oron
- The Jesse Z. and Sara Lea Shafer Institute for Endocrinology and Diabetes, The National Center for Childhood Diabetes, Schneider Children's Medical Center of Israel, Petah Tikva, Israel
- Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Eran Amar
- Department of Computer Science and Applied Mathematics, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot, Israel
- Department of Molecular Cell Biology, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot, Israel
| | - Moshe Phillip
- The Jesse Z. and Sara Lea Shafer Institute for Endocrinology and Diabetes, The National Center for Childhood Diabetes, Schneider Children's Medical Center of Israel, Petah Tikva, Israel
- Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Eran Segal
- Department of Computer Science and Applied Mathematics, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot, Israel
- Department of Molecular Cell Biology, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot, Israel
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29
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A Comparison of Different Models of Glycemia Dynamics for Improved Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus Management with Advanced Intelligent Analysis in an Internet of Things Context. APPLIED SCIENCES-BASEL 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/app10124381] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
The metabolic disease Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus (DM1) is caused by a reduction in the production of pancreatic insulin, which causes chronic hyperglycemia. Patients with DM1 are required to perform multiple blood glucose measurements on a daily basis to monitor their blood glucose dynamics through the use of capillary glucometers. In more recent times, technological developments have led to the development of cutting-edge biosensors and Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) systems that can monitor patients’ blood glucose levels on a real-time basis. This offers medical providers access to glucose oscillations modeling interventions that can enhance DM1 treatment and management approaches through the use of novel disruptive technologies, such as Cloud Computing (CC), big data, Intelligent Data Analysis (IDA) and the Internet of Things (IoT). This work applies some advanced modeling techniques to a complete data set of glycemia-related biomedical features—obtained through an extensive, passive monitoring campaign undertaken with 25 DM1 patients under real-world conditions—in order to model glucose level dynamics through the proper identification of patterns. Hereby, four methods, which are run through CC due to the high volume of data collected, are applied and compared within an IoT context. The results show that Bayesian Regularized Neural Networks (BRNN) offer the best performance (0.83 R2) with a reduced Root Median Squared Error (RMSE) of 14.03 mg/dL.
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30
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Prediction of blood glucose concentration for type 1 diabetes based on echo state networks embedded with incremental learning. Neurocomputing 2020. [DOI: 10.1016/j.neucom.2019.10.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
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31
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Montaser E, Diez JL, Rossetti P, Rashid M, Cinar A, Bondia J. Seasonal Local Models for Glucose Prediction in Type 1 Diabetes. IEEE J Biomed Health Inform 2019; 24:2064-2072. [PMID: 31796419 DOI: 10.1109/jbhi.2019.2956704] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
Linear empirical dynamic models have been widely used for blood glucose prediction and risks prevention in people with type 1 diabetes. More accurate blood glucose prediction models with longer prediction horizon (PH) are desirable to enable warnings to patients about imminent blood glucose changes with enough time to take corrective actions. In this study, a blood glucose prediction method is developed by integrating the predictions of a set of seasonal local models (each of them corresponding to different glucose profiles observed along historical data). In the modeling step, the number of sets and their corresponding glucose profiles characteristics are obtained by clustering techniques (Fuzzy C-Means). Then, Box-Jenkins methodology is used to identify a seasonal model for each set. Finally, blood glucose predictions of local models are integrated using different techniques. The proposed method is tested by using 18 60-h closed-loop experiments (including different exercise types and artificial pancreas strategies) and achieving mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 2.94%, 3.89%, 5.41%, 6.29% and 8.66% for 15-, 30-, 45-, 60-, and 90-min PHs, respectively.
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Camerlingo N, Vettoretti M, Del Favero S, Cappon G, Sparacino G, Facchinetti A. A Real-Time Continuous Glucose Monitoring-Based Algorithm to Trigger Hypotreatments to Prevent/Mitigate Hypoglycemic Events. Diabetes Technol Ther 2019; 21:644-655. [PMID: 31335191 DOI: 10.1089/dia.2019.0139] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/31/2022]
Abstract
Background: The standard treatment for hypoglycemia recommended by the American Diabetes Association (ADA) suggests patients with diabetes to take small amounts of carbohydrates, the so-called hypotreatments (HTs), as soon as blood glucose concentration goes below 70 mg/dL. However, prevention, or at least mitigation, of hypoglycemic events could be achieved by triggering HTs ahead of time thanks to the use of the predictive capabilities of suitable real-time algorithms fed by continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) sensor data. Materials and Methods: The algorithm proposed in this article to trigger HTs for preventing forthcoming hypoglycemic events is based on the computation of the "dynamic risk", there is a nonlinear function combining current glycemia with its rate-of-change, both provided by CGM. A comparison of performance of the proposed algorithm against the ADA guidelines is made, in silico, on datasets of 100 virtual patients undergoing a single-meal experiment, with induced postmeal hypoglycemia, generated by the UVA/Padova type 1 diabetes simulator. Results: On noise-free CGM data, the proposed algorithm reduces the time spent in hypoglycemia, on median [25th-75th percentiles] from 36 [29-43] to 0 [0-11] min (P < 0.0001), with a concomitant decrease of the post-treatment rebound (PTR) in glucose concentration, on median [25th-75th percentiles] from 136 [121-148] to 121 [116-127] mg/dL (P < 0.0001). On noisy CGM data, there is still a reduction of both time spent in hypoglycemia from 41 [28-49] min to 25 [0-41] min (P < 0.0001) and PTR from 174 [146-189] mg/dL to 137 [123-151] mg/dL (P < 0.0001). Conclusions: The potentiality of the new algorithm in generating preventive HTs, which can allow significant reduction of hypoglycemia without concomitant increase of hyperglycemia, suggests its further development and test in silico, for example, simulating both insulin pump and multiple-daily-injection therapies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nunzio Camerlingo
- Department of Information Engineering, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
| | - Martina Vettoretti
- Department of Information Engineering, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
| | - Simone Del Favero
- Department of Information Engineering, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
| | - Giacomo Cappon
- Department of Information Engineering, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
| | - Giovanni Sparacino
- Department of Information Engineering, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
| | - Andrea Facchinetti
- Department of Information Engineering, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
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Woldaregay AZ, Årsand E, Walderhaug S, Albers D, Mamykina L, Botsis T, Hartvigsen G. Data-driven modeling and prediction of blood glucose dynamics: Machine learning applications in type 1 diabetes. Artif Intell Med 2019; 98:109-134. [DOI: 10.1016/j.artmed.2019.07.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 54] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/26/2018] [Revised: 08/22/2018] [Accepted: 07/19/2019] [Indexed: 10/26/2022]
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De Falco I, Cioppa AD, Giugliano A, Marcelli A, Koutny T, Krcma M, Scafuri U, Tarantino E. A genetic programming-based regression for extrapolating a blood glucose-dynamics model from interstitial glucose measurements and their first derivatives. Appl Soft Comput 2019. [DOI: 10.1016/j.asoc.2019.01.020] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
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36
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Short-term prediction of glucose in type 1 diabetes using kernel adaptive filters. Med Biol Eng Comput 2018; 57:27-46. [PMID: 29967934 DOI: 10.1007/s11517-018-1859-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/19/2017] [Accepted: 06/11/2018] [Indexed: 10/28/2022]
Abstract
This study aims at presenting a nonlinear, recursive, multivariate prediction model of the subcutaneous glucose concentration in type 1 diabetes. Nonlinear regression is performed in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, by either the fixed budget quantized kernel least mean square (QKLMS-FB) or the approximate linear dependency kernel recursive least-squares (KRLS-ALD) algorithm, such that a sparse model structure is accomplished. A multivariate feature set (i.e., subcutaneous glucose, food carbohydrates, insulin regime and physical activity) is used and its influence on short-term glucose prediction is investigated. The method is evaluated using data from 15 patients with type 1 diabetes in free-living conditions. In the case when all the input variables are considered: (i) the average root mean squared error (RMSE) of QKLMS-FB increases from 13.1 mg dL-1 (mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) 6.6%) for a 15-min prediction horizon (PH) to 37.7 mg dL-1 (MAPE 20.8%) for a 60-min PH and (ii) the RMSE of KRLS-ALD, being predictably lower, increases from 10.5 mg dL-1 (MAPE 5.2%) for a 15-min PH to 31.8 mg dL-1 (MAPE 18.0%) for a 60-min PH. Multivariate data improve systematically both the regularity and the time lag of the predictions, reducing the errors in critical glucose value regions for a PH ≥ 30 min. Graphical abstract ᅟ.
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Gadaleta M, Facchinetti A, Grisan E, Rossi M. Prediction of Adverse Glycemic Events From Continuous Glucose Monitoring Signal. IEEE J Biomed Health Inform 2018; 23:650-659. [PMID: 29993992 DOI: 10.1109/jbhi.2018.2823763] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/07/2022]
Abstract
The most important objective of any diabetes therapy is to maintain the blood glucose concentration within the euglycemic range, avoiding or at least mitigating critical hypo/hyperglycemic episodes. Modern continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) devices bear the promise of providing the patients with an increased and timely awareness of glycemic conditions as these get dangerously near to hypo/hyperglycemia. The challenge is to detect, with reasonable advance, the patterns leading to risky situations, allowing the patient to make therapeutic decisions on the basis of future (predicted) glucose concentration levels. We underline that a technically sound performance comparison of the approaches proposed in recent years has yet to be done, thus it is unclear which one is preferred. The aim of this study is to fill this gap by carrying out a comparative analysis among the most common methods for glucose event prediction. Both regression and classification algorithms have been implemented and analyzed, including static and dynamic training approaches. The dataset consists of 89 CGM time series measured in diabetic subjects for 7 subsequent days. Performance metrics, specifically defined to assess and compare the event-prediction capabilities of the methods, have been introduced and analyzed. Our numerical results show that a static training approach exhibits better performance, in particular when regression methods are considered. However, classifiers show some improvement when trained for a specific event category, such as hyperglycemia, achieving performance comparable to the regressors, with the advantage of predicting the events sooner.
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Rodríguez-Rodríguez I, Rodríguez JV, Zamora-Izquierdo MÁ. Variables to Be Monitored via Biomedical Sensors for Complete Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus Management: An Extension of the "On-Board" Concept. J Diabetes Res 2018; 2018:4826984. [PMID: 30363935 PMCID: PMC6186351 DOI: 10.1155/2018/4826984] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/07/2018] [Revised: 07/16/2018] [Accepted: 08/09/2018] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Abstract
Type 1 diabetes mellitus (DM1) is a growing disease, and a deep understanding of the patient is required to prescribe the most appropriate treatment, adjusted to the patient's habits and characteristics. Before now, knowledge regarding each patient has been incomplete, discontinuous, and partial. However, the recent development of continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) and new biomedical sensors/gadgets, based on automatic continuous monitoring, offers a new perspective on DM1 management, since these innovative devices allow the collection of 24-hour biomedical data in addition to blood glucose levels. With this, it is possible to deeply characterize a diabetic person, offering a better understanding of his or her illness evolution, and, going further, develop new strategies to manage DM1. This new and global monitoring makes it possible to extend the "on-board" concept to other features. This well-known approach to the processing of variable "insulin" describes some inertias and aggregated/remaining effects. In this work, such analysis is carried out along with a thorough study of the significant variables to be taken into account/monitored-and how to arrange them-for a deep characterization of diabetic patients. Lastly, we present a case study evaluating the experience of the continuous and comprehensive monitoring of a diabetic patient, concluding that the huge potential of this new perspective could provide an acute insight into the patient's status and extract the maximum amount of knowledge, thus improving the DM1 management system in order to be fully functional.
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Ben Ali J, Hamdi T, Fnaiech N, Di Costanzo V, Fnaiech F, Ginoux JM. Continuous blood glucose level prediction of Type 1 Diabetes based on Artificial Neural Network. Biocybern Biomed Eng 2018. [DOI: 10.1016/j.bbe.2018.06.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 58] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
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Contreras I, Oviedo S, Vettoretti M, Visentin R, Vehí J. Personalized blood glucose prediction: A hybrid approach using grammatical evolution and physiological models. PLoS One 2017; 12:e0187754. [PMID: 29112978 PMCID: PMC5675457 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0187754] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/12/2017] [Accepted: 10/25/2017] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
The large patient variability in human physiology and the effects of variables such as exercise or meals challenge current prediction modeling techniques. Physiological models are very precise but they are typically complex and specific physiological knowledge is required. In contrast, data-based models allow the incorporation of additional inputs and accurately capture the relationship between these inputs and the outcome, but at the cost of losing the physiological meaning of the model. In this work, we designed a hybrid approach comprising physiological models for insulin and grammatical evolution, taking into account the clinical harm caused by deviations from the target blood glucose by using a penalizing fitness function based on the Clarke error grid. The prediction models were built using data obtained over 14 days for 100 virtual patients generated by the UVA/Padova T1D simulator. Midterm blood glucose was predicted for the 100 virtual patients using personalized models and different scenarios. The results obtained were promising; an average of 98.31% of the predictions fell in zones A and B of the Clarke error grid. Midterm predictions using personalized models are feasible when the configuration of grammatical evolution explored in this study is used. The study of new alternative models is important to move forward in the development of alarm-and-control applications for the management of type 1 diabetes and the customization of the patient's treatments. The hybrid approach can be adapted to predict short-term blood glucose values to detect continuous glucose-monitoring sensor errors and to estimate blood glucose values when the continuous glucose-monitoring system fails to provide them.
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Affiliation(s)
- Iván Contreras
- Institut d’Informàtica i Aplicacions, Parc Científic i Tecnològic de la Universitat de Girona, Girona, Spain
- * E-mail:
| | - Silvia Oviedo
- Institut d’Informàtica i Aplicacions, Parc Científic i Tecnològic de la Universitat de Girona, Girona, Spain
| | - Martina Vettoretti
- Department of Information Engineering, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
| | - Roberto Visentin
- Department of Information Engineering, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
| | - Josep Vehí
- Institut d’Informàtica i Aplicacions, Parc Científic i Tecnològic de la Universitat de Girona, Girona, Spain
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41
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Georga EI, Principe JC, Rizos EC, Fotiadis DI. Kernel-based adaptive learning improves accuracy of glucose predictive modelling in type 1 diabetes: A proof-of-concept study. ANNUAL INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE OF THE IEEE ENGINEERING IN MEDICINE AND BIOLOGY SOCIETY. IEEE ENGINEERING IN MEDICINE AND BIOLOGY SOCIETY. ANNUAL INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE 2017; 2017:2765-2768. [PMID: 29060471 DOI: 10.1109/embc.2017.8037430] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Abstract
This study aims at demonstrating the need for nonlinear recursive models to the identification and prediction of the dynamic glucose system in type 1 diabetes. Nonlinear regression is performed in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, by the Approximate Linear Dependency Kernel Recursive Least Squares (KRLS-ALD) algorithm, such that a sparse model structure is accomplished. The method is evaluated on seven people with type 1 diabetes in free-living conditions, where a change in glycaemic dynamics is forced by increasing the level of physical activity in the middle of the observational period. The univariate input allows for short-term (≤30 min) predictions with KRLS-ALD reaching an average root mean square error of 15.22±5.95 mgdL-1 and an average time lag of 17.14±2.67 min for an horizon of 30 min. Its performance is considerably better than that of time-invariant (regularized) linear regression models.
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42
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Zhao H, Zhao C, Yu C, Dassau E. Multiple order model migration and optimal model selection for online glucose prediction in Type 1 diabetes. AIChE J 2017. [DOI: 10.1002/aic.15983] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/07/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Hong Zhao
- State Key Laboratory of Industrial Control Technology, College of Control Science and Engineering; Zhejiang University; Hangzhou 310027 China
| | - Chunhui Zhao
- State Key Laboratory of Industrial Control Technology, College of Control Science and Engineering; Zhejiang University; Hangzhou 310027 China
| | - Chengxia Yu
- State Key Laboratory of Industrial Control Technology, College of Control Science and Engineering; Zhejiang University; Hangzhou 310027 China
| | - Eyal Dassau
- Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences; Harvard University; Cambridge MA 02138
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43
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Oviedo S, Vehí J, Calm R, Armengol J. A review of personalized blood glucose prediction strategies for T1DM patients. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL FOR NUMERICAL METHODS IN BIOMEDICAL ENGINEERING 2017; 33:e2833. [PMID: 27644067 DOI: 10.1002/cnm.2833] [Citation(s) in RCA: 107] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/15/2016] [Revised: 09/15/2016] [Accepted: 09/16/2016] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
This paper presents a methodological review of models for predicting blood glucose (BG) concentration, risks and BG events. The surveyed models are classified into three categories, and they are presented in summary tables containing the most relevant data regarding the experimental setup for fitting and testing each model as well as the input signals and the performance metrics. Each category exhibits trends that are presented and discussed. This document aims to be a compact guide to determine the modeling options that are currently being exploited for personalized BG prediction.
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Affiliation(s)
- Silvia Oviedo
- Institut d'Informàtica i Aplicacions, Parc Científic i Tecnològic de la Universitat de Girona, 17003, Girona, Spain
| | - Josep Vehí
- Institut d'Informàtica i Aplicacions, Universitat de Girona, Campus Montilivi, Edifici P4, 17071, Girona, Spain
| | - Remei Calm
- Institut d'Informàtica i Aplicacions, Universitat de Girona, Campus Montilivi, Edifici P4, 17071, Girona, Spain
| | - Joaquim Armengol
- Institut d'Informàtica i Aplicacions, Universitat de Girona, Campus Montilivi, Edifici P4, 17071, Girona, Spain
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44
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Continuous Glucose Monitoring Sensors: Past, Present and Future Algorithmic Challenges. SENSORS 2016; 16:s16122093. [PMID: 27941663 PMCID: PMC5191073 DOI: 10.3390/s16122093] [Citation(s) in RCA: 103] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/14/2016] [Revised: 11/17/2016] [Accepted: 12/07/2016] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) sensors are portable devices that allow measuring and visualizing the glucose concentration in real time almost continuously for several days and are provided with hypo/hyperglycemic alerts and glucose trend information. CGM sensors have revolutionized Type 1 diabetes (T1D) management, improving glucose control when used adjunctively to self-monitoring blood glucose systems. Furthermore, CGM devices have stimulated the development of applications that were impossible to create without a continuous-time glucose signal, e.g., real-time predictive alerts of hypo/hyperglycemic episodes based on the prediction of future glucose concentration, automatic basal insulin attenuation methods for hypoglycemia prevention, and the artificial pancreas. However, CGM sensors’ lack of accuracy and reliability limited their usability in the clinical practice, calling upon the academic community for the development of suitable signal processing methods to improve CGM performance. The aim of this paper is to review the past and present algorithmic challenges of CGM sensors, to show how they have been tackled by our research group, and to identify the possible future ones.
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45
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Georga EI, Protopappas VC, Polyzos D, Fotiadis DI. Online prediction of glucose concentration in type 1 diabetes using extreme learning machines. ANNUAL INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE OF THE IEEE ENGINEERING IN MEDICINE AND BIOLOGY SOCIETY. IEEE ENGINEERING IN MEDICINE AND BIOLOGY SOCIETY. ANNUAL INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE 2016; 2015:3262-5. [PMID: 26736988 DOI: 10.1109/embc.2015.7319088] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
Abstract
We propose an online machine-learning solution to the problem of nonlinear glucose time series prediction in type 1 diabetes. Recently, extreme learning machine (ELM) has been proposed for training single hidden layer feed-forward neural networks. The high accuracy and fast learning speed of ELM drive us to investigate its applicability to the glucose prediction problem. Given that diabetes self-monitoring data are received sequentially, we focus on online sequential ELM (OS-ELM) and online sequential ELM kernels (KOS-ELM). A multivariate feature set is utilized concerning subcutaneous glucose, insulin therapy, carbohydrates intake and physical activity. The dataset comes from the continuous multi-day recordings of 15 type 1 patients in free-living conditions. Assuming stationarity and evaluating the performance of the proposed method by 10-fold cross- validation, KOS-ELM were found to perform better than OS-ELM in terms of prediction error, temporal gain and regularity of predictions for a 30-min prediction horizon.
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46
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Zecchin C, Facchinetti A, Sparacino G, Cobelli C. How Much Is Short-Term Glucose Prediction in Type 1 Diabetes Improved by Adding Insulin Delivery and Meal Content Information to CGM Data? A Proof-of-Concept Study. J Diabetes Sci Technol 2016; 10:1149-60. [PMID: 27381030 PMCID: PMC5032963 DOI: 10.1177/1932296816654161] [Citation(s) in RCA: 38] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND In type 1 diabetes (T1D) management, short-term glucose prediction can allow to anticipate therapeutic decisions when hypo/hyperglycemia is imminent. Literature prediction methods mainly use past continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) readings. Sophisticated algorithms can use information on insulin delivered and meal carbohydrate (CHO) content. The quantification of how much insulin and CHO information improves glucose prediction is missing in the literature and is investigated, in an open-loop setting, in this proof-of-concept study. METHODS We adopted a versatile literature prediction methodology able to utilize a variety of inputs. We compared predictors that use (1) CGM; (2) CGM and insulin; (3) CGM and CHO; and (4) CGM, insulin, and CHO. Data of 15 T1D subjects in open-loop setup were used. Prediction was evaluated via absolute error and temporal gain focusing on meal/night periods. The relative importance of each individual input of the predictor was evaluated with a sensitivity analysis. RESULTS For a prediction horizon (PH) ≥ 30 minutes, insulin and CHO information improves prediction accuracy of 10% and double the temporal gain during the 2 hours following the meal. During the night the 4 methods did not give statistically different results. When PH ≥ 45 minutes, the influence of CHO information on prediction is 5-fold that of insulin. CONCLUSIONS In an open-loop setting, with PH ≥ 30 minutes, information on CHO and insulin improves short-term glucose prediction in the 2-hour time window following a meal, but not during the night. CHO information improves prediction significantly more than insulin.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chiara Zecchin
- Department of Information Engineering, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
| | - Andrea Facchinetti
- Department of Information Engineering, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
| | - Giovanni Sparacino
- Department of Information Engineering, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
| | - Claudio Cobelli
- Department of Information Engineering, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
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47
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Abstract
Soon after the discovery that insulin regulates blood glucose by Banting and Best in 1922, the symptoms and risks associated with hypoglycemia became widely recognized. This article reviews devices to warn individuals of impending hypo- and hyperglycemia; biosignals used by these devices include electroencephalography, electrocardiography, skin galvanic resistance, diabetes alert dogs, and continuous glucose monitors (CGMs). While systems based on other technology are increasing in performance and decreasing in size, CGM technology remains the best method for both reactive and predictive alarming of hypo- or hyperglycemia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel Howsmon
- Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY, USA
| | - B Wayne Bequette
- Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY, USA
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48
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Georga EI, Protopappas VC, Polyzos D, Fotiadis DI. Evaluation of short-term predictors of glucose concentration in type 1 diabetes combining feature ranking with regression models. Med Biol Eng Comput 2015; 53:1305-18. [PMID: 25773366 DOI: 10.1007/s11517-015-1263-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 54] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/31/2014] [Accepted: 02/27/2015] [Indexed: 01/04/2023]
Abstract
Glucose concentration in type 1 diabetes is a function of biological and environmental factors which present high inter-patient variability. The objective of this study is to evaluate a number of features, which are extracted from medical and lifestyle self-monitoring data, with respect to their ability to predict the short-term subcutaneous (s.c.) glucose concentration of an individual. Random forests (RF) and RReliefF algorithms are first employed to rank the candidate feature set. Then, a forward selection procedure follows to build a glucose predictive model, where features are sequentially added to it in decreasing order of importance. Predictions are performed using support vector regression or Gaussian processes. The proposed method is validated on a dataset of 15 type diabetics in real-life conditions. The s.c. glucose profile along with time of the day and plasma insulin concentration are systematically highly ranked, while the effect of food intake and physical activity varies considerably among patients. Moreover, the average prediction error converges in less than d/2 iterations (d is the number of features). Our results suggest that RF and RReliefF can find the most informative features and can be successfully used to customize the input of glucose models.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eleni I Georga
- Unit of Medical Technology and Intelligent Information Systems, Department of Materials Science and Engineering, University of Ioannina, 45110, Ioannina, Greece
| | - Vasilios C Protopappas
- Unit of Medical Technology and Intelligent Information Systems, Department of Materials Science and Engineering, University of Ioannina, 45110, Ioannina, Greece
| | - Demosthenes Polyzos
- Department of Mechanical Engineering and Aeronautics, University of Patras, 26500, Patras, Greece
| | - Dimitrios I Fotiadis
- Unit of Medical Technology and Intelligent Information Systems, Department of Materials Science and Engineering, University of Ioannina, 45110, Ioannina, Greece.
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49
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Bock A, François G, Gillet D. A therapy parameter-based model for predicting blood glucose concentrations in patients with type 1 diabetes. COMPUTER METHODS AND PROGRAMS IN BIOMEDICINE 2015; 118:107-123. [PMID: 25577673 DOI: 10.1016/j.cmpb.2014.12.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/25/2013] [Revised: 12/02/2014] [Accepted: 12/04/2014] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
In this paper, the problem of predicting blood glucose concentrations (BG) for the treatment of patients with type 1 diabetes, is addressed. Predicting BG is of very high importance as most treatments, which consist in exogenous insulin injections, rely on the availability of BG predictions. Many models that can be used for predicting BG are available in the literature. However, it is widely admitted that it is almost impossible to perfectly model blood glucose dynamics while still being able to identify model parameters using only blood glucose measurements. The main contribution of this work is to propose a simple and identifiable linear dynamical model, which is based on the static prediction model of standard therapy. It is shown that the model parameters are intrinsically correlated with physician-set therapy parameters and that the reduction of the number of model parameters to identify leads to inferior data fits but to equivalent or slightly improved prediction capabilities compared to state-of-the-art models: a sign of an appropriate model structure and superior reliability. The validation of the proposed dynamic model is performed using data from the UVa simulator and real clinical data, and potential uses of the proposed model for state estimation and BG control are discussed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alain Bock
- React Group, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Switzerland.
| | - Grégory François
- Laboratoire d'Automatique, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Switzerland.
| | - Denis Gillet
- React Group, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Switzerland.
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50
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Zecchin C, Facchinetti A, Sparacino G, Cobelli C. Jump neural network for real-time prediction of glucose concentration. Methods Mol Biol 2015; 1260:245-59. [PMID: 25502386 DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4939-2239-0_15] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/28/2022]
Abstract
Prediction of the future value of a variable is of central importance in a wide variety of fields, including economy and finance, meteorology, informatics, and, last but not least important, medicine. For example, in the therapy of Type 1 Diabetes (T1D), in which, for patient safety, glucose concentration in the blood should be maintained in a defined normoglycemic range, the ability to forecast glucose concentration in the short-term (with a prediction horizon of around 30 min) might be sufficient to reduce the incidence of hypoglycemic and hyperglycemic events. Neural Network (NN) approaches are suitable for prediction purposes because of their ability to model nonlinear dynamics and handle in their inputs signals coming from different domains. In this chapter we illustrate the design of a jump NN glucose prediction algorithm that exploits past glucose concentration data, measured in real-time by a minimally invasive continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) sensor, and information on ingested carbohydrates, supplied by the patient himself or herself. The methodology is assessed by tuning the NN on data of ten T1D individuals and then testing it on a dataset of ten different subjects. Results with a prediction horizon of 30 min show that prediction of glucose concentration in T1D via NN is feasible and sufficiently accurate. The average time anticipation obtained is compatible with the generation of preventive hypoglycemic and hyperglycemic alerts and the improvement of artificial pancreas performance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chiara Zecchin
- Department of Information Engineering, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
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