Studies in the use of data mining, prediction algorithms, and a universal exchange and inference language in the analysis of socioeconomic health data

Towards faster response against emerging epidemics and prediction of variants of concern

The author, the journal, Computers in Biology and Medicine (CBM), and Elsevier Press more generally, played a helpful very early role in responding to COVID-19. Within a few days of the appearance of the "Wuhan Seafood isolate" genome on GenBank, a bioinformatics study was posted by the present author in ResearchGate in January 2020, "Preliminary Bioinformatics Studies on the Design of Synthetic Vaccines and Preventative Peptidomimetic Antagonists against the Wuhan Seafood Market Coronavirus. Possible Importance of the KRSFIEDLLFNKV Motif" DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18275.09761. On February 2nd^, 2020, a more thorough analysis was submitted to CBM, e-published on February 26, and formally published in April 2020, at about the same time as the virus named as 2019n-CoV was identified as essentially SARS and renames SARS-COV-2. This was followed by four further papers describing in more detail some previously unreported aspects of the early investigation. The speed of research and writing of the papers was made possible by knowledge-gathering tools. Based on this and earlier experiences with fast responses to emerging epidemics such as HIV and Mad Cow Disease, it is possible to envisage the nature of a speedier response to emerging epidemics and new variants of concern in established epidemics.

Mining real-world high dimensional structured data in medicine and its use in decision support. Some different perspectives on unknowns, interdependency, and distinguishability

There are many difficulties in extracting and using knowledge for medical analytic and predictive purposes from Real-World Data, even when the data is already well structured in the manner of a large spreadsheet. Preparative curation and standardization or "normalization" of such data involves a variety of chores but underlying them is an interrelated set of fundamental problems that can in part be dealt with automatically during the datamining and inference processes. These fundamental problems are reviewed here and illustrated and investigated with examples. They concern the treatment of unknowns, the need to avoid independency assumptions, and the appearance of entries that may not be fully distinguished from each other. Unknowns include errors detected as implausible (e.g., out of range) values that are subsequently converted to unknowns. These problems are further impacted by high dimensionality and problems of sparse data that inevitably arise from high-dimensional datamining even if the data is extensive. All these considerations are different aspects of incomplete information, though they also relate to problems that arise if care is not taken to avoid or ameliorate consequences of including the same information twice or more, or if misleading or inconsistent information is combined. This paper addresses these aspects from a slightly different perspective using the Q-UEL language and inference methods based on it by borrowing some ideas from the mathematics of quantum mechanics and information theory. It takes the view that detection and correction of probabilistic elements of knowledge subsequently used in inference need only involve testing and correction so that they satisfy certain extended notions of coherence between probabilities. This is by no means the only possible view, and it is explored here and later compared with a related notion of consistency.

Testing machine learning techniques for general application by using protein secondary structure prediction. A brief survey with studies of pitfalls and benefits using a simple progressive learning approach

Many researchers have recently used the prediction of protein secondary structure (local conformational states of amino acid residues) to test advances in predictive and machine learning technology such as Neural Net Deep Learning. Protein secondary structure prediction continues to be a helpful tool in research in biomedicine and the life sciences, but it is also extremely enticing for testing predictive methods such as neural nets that are intended for different or more general purposes. A complication is highlighted here for researchers testing their methods for other applications. Modern protein databases inevitably contain important clues to the answer, so-called "strong buried clues", though often obscurely; they are hard to avoid. This is because most proteins or parts of proteins in a modern protein data base are related to others by biological evolution. For researchers developing machine learning and predictive methods, this can overstate and so confuse understanding of the true quality of a predictive method. However, for researchers using the algorithms as tools, understanding strong buried clues is of great value, because they need to make maximum use of all information available. A simple method related to the GOR methods but with some features of neural nets in the sense of progressive learning of large numbers of weights, is used to explore this. It can acquire tens of millions and hence gigabytes of weights, but they are learned stably by exhaustive sampling. The significance of the findings is discussed in the light of promising recent results from AlphaFold using Google's DeepMind.

A scoping review on the use of machine learning in research on social determinants of health: Trends and research prospects

Background

Machine learning (ML) has spread rapidly from computer science to several disciplines. Given the predictive capacity of ML, it offers new opportunities for health, behavioral, and social scientists. However, it remains unclear how and to what extent ML is being used in studies of social determinants of health (SDH).

Methods

Using four search engines, we conducted a scoping review of studies that used ML to study SDH (published before May 1, 2020). Two independent reviewers analyzed the relevant studies. For each study, we identified the research questions, Results, data, and algorithms. We synthesized our findings in a narrative report.

Results

Of the initial 8097 hits, we identified 82 relevant studies. The number of publications has risen during the past decade. More than half of the studies (n = 46) used US data. About 80% (n = 66) utilized surveys, and 70% (n = 57) employed ML for common prediction tasks. Although the number of studies in ML and SDH is growing rapidly, only a few studies used ML to improve causal inference, curate data, or identify social bias in predictions (i.e., algorithmic fairness).

Conclusions

While ML equips researchers with new ways to measure health outcomes and their determinants from non-conventional sources such as text, audio, and image data, most studies still rely on traditional surveys. Although there are no guarantees that ML will lead to better social epidemiological research, the potential for innovation in SDH research is evident as a result of harnessing the predictive power of ML for causality, data curation, or algorithmic fairness.

Leveraging machine learning to characterize the role of socio-economic determinants on physical health and well-being among veterans

INTRODUCTION

We investigate the contribution of demographic, socio-economic, and geographic characteristics as determinants of physical health and well-being to guide public health policies and preventative behavior interventions (e.g., countering coronavirus).

METHODS

We use machine learning to build predictive models of overall well-being and physical health among veterans as a function of these three sets of characteristics. We link Gallup's U.S. Daily Poll between 2014 and 2017 over a range of demographic and socio-economic characteristics with zipcode characteristics from the Census Bureau to build predictive models of overall and physical well-being.

RESULTS

Although the predictive models of overall well-being have weak performance, our classification of low levels of physical well-being performed better. Gradient boosting delivered the best results (80.2% precision, 82.4% recall, and 80.4% AUROC) with perceptions of purpose in the workplace and financial anxiety as the most predictive features. Our results suggest that additional measures of socio-economic characteristics are required to better predict physical well-being, particularly among vulnerable groups, like veterans.

CONCLUSION

Socio-economic characteristics explain large differences in physical and overall well-being. Effective predictive models that incorporate socio-economic data will provide opportunities to create real-time and personalized feedback to help individuals improve their quality of life.

Computers and viral diseases. Preliminary bioinformatics studies on the design of a synthetic vaccine and a preventative peptidomimetic antagonist against the SARS-CoV-2 (2019-nCoV, COVID-19) coronavirus

This paper concerns study of the genome of the Wuhan Seafood Market isolate believed to represent the causative agent of the disease COVID-19. This is to find a short section or sections of viral protein sequence suitable for preliminary design proposal for a peptide synthetic vaccine and a peptidomimetic therapeutic, and to explore some design possibilities. The project was originally directed towards a use case for the Q-UEL language and its implementation in a knowledge management and automated inference system for medicine called the BioIngine, but focus here remains mostly on the virus itself. However, using Q-UEL systems to access relevant and emerging literature, and to interact with standard publically available bioinformatics tools on the Internet, did help quickly identify sequences of amino acids that are well conserved across many coronaviruses including 2019-nCoV. KRSFIEDLLFNKV was found to be particularly well conserved in this study and corresponds to the region around one of the known cleavage sites of the SARS virus that are believed to be required for virus activation for cell entry. This sequence motif and surrounding variations formed the basis for proposing a specific synthetic vaccine epitope and peptidomimetic agent. The work can, nonetheless, be described in traditional bioinformatics terms, and readily reproduced by others, albeit with the caveat that new data and research into 2019-nCoV is emerging and evolving at an explosive pace. Preliminary studies using molecular modeling and docking, and in that context the potential value of certain known herbal extracts, are also described.

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Bioinformatics studies are carried out on the COVID-19 virus.

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A sequence motif KRSFIEDLLFNKV is of particular interest.

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Based on the above, synthetic peptides are designed.

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Preliminary considerations are also given to non-peptide organic molecules.

Extension of the Quantum Universal Exchange Language to precision medicine and drug lead discovery. Preliminary example studies using the mitochondrial genome

The Quantum Universal Exchange Language (Q-UEL) based on Dirac notation and algebra from quantum mechanics, along with its associated data mining and Hyperbolic Dirac Net (HDN) for probabilistic inference, has proven to be a useful architectural principle for knowledge management, analysis and prediction systems in medicine. It has been described in several papers; here is described its extension to clinical genomics and precision medicine. Two use cases are studied: (a) bioinformatics in clinical decision support especially for risk for type 2 diabetes using mitochondrial patient DNA sequences, and (b) bioinformatics and computational biology (conformational) research examples related to drug discovery involving the recently discovered class of mitochondrial derived peptides (MDPs). MDPs were surprising when first discovered as coded in small open reading frames (sORFs), and are emerging as having a fundamental role in metabolic control, longevity and disease. This project originally represented a language specification study relating to what information related to genomics is essential or useful to carry, and what processing will be needed. However, novel aspects introduced or discovered include the HDN-like neural nets and their use, along with more established methods, for prediction of type 2 diabetes, and in particular for proposals for over 80 natural MDPs most of which that have not previously been described at the time of the study, as potential drug lead targets. Also, use of many medical records with simulated joining of mtDNA as performance tests led to some insightful observations regarding the behavior of HDN predictions where independent factors are involved.