New integrated care models in England associated with small reduction in hospital admissions in longer-term: A difference-in-differences analysis

Interventions to minimise hospital winter pressures related to discharge planning and integrated care: a rapid mapping review of UK evidence

Background

Winter pressures are a familiar phenomenon within the National Health Service and represent the most extreme of many regular demands placed on health and social care service provision. This review focuses on a part of the pathway that is particularly problematic: the discharge process from hospital to social care and the community. Although studies of discharge are plentiful, we identified a need to focus on identifying interventions and initiatives that are a specific response to 'winter pressures'. This mapping review focuses on interventions or initiatives in relation to hospital winter pressures in the United Kingdom with either discharge planning to increase smart discharge (both a reduction in patients waiting to be discharged and patients being discharged to the most appropriate place) and/or integrated care.

Methods

We conducted a mapping review of United Kingdom evidence published 2018-22. Initially, we searched MEDLINE, Health Management Information Consortium, Social Care Online, Social Sciences Citation Index and the King's Fund Library to find relevant interventions in conjunction with winter pressures. From these interventions we created a taxonomy of intervention types and a draft map. A second broader stage of searching was then undertaken for named candidate interventions on Google Scholar (Google Inc., Mountain View, CA, USA). For each taxonomy heading, we produced a table with definitions, findings from research studies, local initiatives and systematic reviews and evidence gaps.

Results

The taxonomy developed was split into structural, changing staff behaviour, changing community provision, integrated care, targeting carers, modelling and workforce planning. The last two categories were excluded from the scope. Within the different taxonomy sections we generated a total of 41 headings. These headings were further organised into the different stages of the patient pathway: hospital avoidance, alternative delivery site, facilitated discharge and cross-cutting. The evidence for each heading was summarised in tables and evidence gaps were identified.

Conclusions

Few initiatives identified were specifically identified as a response to winter pressures. Discharge to assess and hospital at home interventions are heavily used and well supported by the evidence but other responses, while also heavily used, were based on limited evidence. There is a lack of studies considering patient, family and provider needs when developing interventions aimed at improving delayed discharge. Additionally, there is a shortage of studies that measure the longer-term impact of interventions. Hospital avoidance and discharge planning are whole-system approaches. Considering the whole health and social care system is imperative to ensure that implementing an initiative in one setting does not just move the problem to another setting.

Limitations

Time limitations for completing the review constrained the period available for additional searches. This may carry implications for the completeness of the evidence base identified.

Future work

Further research to consider a realist review that views approaches across the different sectors within a whole system evaluation frame.

Funding

This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health and Social Care Delivery Research programme (NIHR award ref: NIHR130588) and is published in full in Health and Social Care Delivery Research; Vol. 12, No. 31. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Patient experiences and clinical outcomes of admissions to municipal acute wards versus a hospital: a multicentre randomised controlled trial in Norway

BACKGROUND

In Norway, municipal acute wards (MAWs) were implemented as alternatives to hospitalisation. Evaluations of the quality of MAW services are lacking. The primary objective of this study was to compare patient experiences after admission to a MAW versus to a hospital. The secondary objective was to compare 'readmissions', 'length of stay', 'self-assessed health-related quality of life' as measured by the EuroQol 5 items 5 level (EQ-5D-5L) index, and 'health status' measured by the RAND-12, in patients admitted to a MAW versus a hospital.

METHODS

A multicentre randomised controlled trial (RCT), randomising patients to either MAW or hospital.

RESULTS

In total, 164 patients were enrolled in the study; 115 were randomised to MAW and 49 to hospital. There were no significant differences between the MAW and hospital groups regarding patient experience, which was rated positively in both groups. Patients in the MAW group reported significantly better physical health status as measured by the RAND-12 four to six weeks after admittance than those randomised to hospital (physical component summary score, 31.7 versus 27.1, p = 0.04). The change in EQ-5D index score from baseline to four to six weeks after admittance was significantly greater among patients randomised to MAWs versus hospitals (0.20 versus 0.02, p = 0.03). There were no other significant differences between the MAW and hospital groups.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, patient experiences and readmissions were similar, whether patients were admitted to a MAW or a hospital. The significant differences in health status and quality of life favouring the MAWs suggest that these healthcare services may be better for elderly patients. However, unfortunately we did not reach the planned sample size due to challenges in the data collection posed by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Using Palliative Care Needs Rounds in the UK for care home staff and residents: an implementation science study

Background

Care home residents often lack access to end-of-life care from specialist palliative care providers. Palliative Care Needs Rounds, developed and tested in Australia, is a novel approach to addressing this.

Objective

To co-design and implement a scalable UK model of Needs Rounds.

Design

A pragmatic implementation study using the integrated Promoting Action on Research Implementation in Health Services framework.

Setting

Implementation was conducted in six case study sites (England, n = 4, and Scotland, n = 2) encompassing specialist palliative care service working with three to six care homes each.

Participants

Phase 1: interviews (n = 28 care home staff, specialist palliative care staff, relatives, primary care, acute care and allied health practitioners) and four workshops (n = 43 care home staff, clinicians and managers from specialist palliative care teams and patient and public involvement and engagement representatives). Phase 2: interviews (n = 58 care home and specialist palliative care staff); family questionnaire (n = 13 relatives); staff questionnaire (n = 171 care home staff); quality of death/dying questionnaire (n = 81); patient and public involvement and engagement evaluation interviews (n = 11); fidelity assessment (n = 14 Needs Rounds recordings).

Interventions

(1) Monthly hour-long discussions of residents' physical, psychosocial and spiritual needs, alongside case-based learning, (2) clinical work and (3) relative/multidisciplinary team meetings.

Main outcome measures

A programme theory describing what works for whom under what circumstances with UK Needs Rounds. Secondary outcomes focus on health service use and cost effectiveness, quality of death and dying, care home staff confidence and capability, and the use of patient and public involvement and engagement.

Data sources

Semistructured interviews and workshops with key stakeholders from the six sites; capability of adopting a palliative approach, quality of death and dying index, and Canadian Health Care Evaluation Project Lite questionnaires; recordings of Needs Rounds; care home data on resident demographics/health service use; assessments and interventions triggered by Needs Rounds; semistructured interviews with academic and patient and public involvement and engagement members.

Results

The programme theory: while care home staff experience workforce challenges such as high turnover, variable skills and confidence, Needs Rounds can provide care home and specialist palliative care staff the opportunity to collaborate during a protected time, to plan for residents' last months of life. Needs Rounds build care home staff confidence and can strengthen relationships and trust, while harnessing services' complementary expertise. Needs Rounds strengthen understandings of dying, symptom management, advance/anticipatory care planning and communication. This can improve resident care, enabling residents to be cared for and die in their preferred place, and may benefit relatives by increasing their confidence in care quality.

Limitations

COVID-19 restricted intervention and data collection. Due to an insufficient sample size, it was not possible to conduct a cost-benefit analysis of Needs Rounds or calculate the treatment effect or family perceptions of care.

Conclusions

Our work suggests that Needs Rounds can improve the quality of life and death for care home residents, by enhancing staff skills and confidence, including symptom management, communications with general practitioners and relatives, and strengthen relationships between care home and specialist palliative care staff.

Future work

Conduct analysis of costs-benefits and treatment effects. Engagement with commissioners and policy-makers could examine integration of Needs Rounds into care homes and primary care across the UK to ensure equitable access to specialist care.

Study registration

This study is registered as ISRCTN15863801.

Funding

This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health and Social Care Delivery Research programme (NIHR award ref: NIHR128799) and is published in full in Health and Social Care Delivery Research; Vol. 12, No. 19. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Competition, quality and integrated health care

Integration of health care services has been promoted in several countries to improve the quality and coordination of care. We investigate the effects of such integration in a model where providers compete on quality to attract patients under regulated prices. We identify countervailing effects of integration on quality of care. While integration makes coordination of care more profitable for providers due to bundled payments, it also softens competition as patient choice is restricted. We also identify circumstances due to asymmetries across providers and/or services under which integration either increases or reduces the quality of services provided. In the absence of synergies, integration generally leads to increases in quality for some services and reductions for others. The corresponding effect on health benefits depends largely on whether integration leads to quality dispersion or convergence across services. If the softening of competition effect is weak, integration is likely to improve quality and patient outcomes.

What remains after the money ends? Evidence on whether admission reductions continued following the largest health and social care integration programme in England

We study the long-term effects on hospital activity of a three-year national integration programme. We use administrative data spanning from 24 months before to 22 months after the programme, to estimate the effect of programme discontinuation using difference-in-differences method. Our results show that after programme discontinuation, emergency admissions were slower to increase in Vanguard compared to non-Vanguard sites. These effects were heterogeneous across sites, with greater reductions in care home Vanguard sites and concentrated among the older population. Care home Vanguards showed significant reductions beginning early in the programme but falling away more rapidly after programme discontinuation. Moreover, there were greater reductions for sites performing poorly before the programme. Overall, this suggests the effects of the integration programme might have been lagged but transitory, and more reliant on continued programme support.

Does the opening of an emergency department influence hospital admissions? Evidence from French private hospitals

Although operating an emergency department (ED) can influence general admission activity of hospitals, most articles that analyze hospital care ignore the potential spillover of emergency activity. In this paper, we examine the consequences of a French reform that encouraged the creation of EDs within private-for-profit (PFP) hospitals in order to decrease congestion in EDs. We use administrative panel data on 365 French PFP hospitals observed between 2002 and 2012. Specifications including hospital fixed-effects are estimated to examine the impact of an ED opening on private hospitals' admission activity, namely inpatient and day-care admissions (ED visits are excluded, but patients admitted following an ED visit are included). We control for shocks that can impact demand for care in hospitals, and we estimate yearly changes before and after the opening. We find that an ED opening is followed by an increase in the number and proportion of inpatient admissions, and by an increase in the length of inpatient stays. A transitory increase in the bed occupancy rate is also observed. In many countries, public and private hospitals compete to some extent. The former provide a public service, while the latter are profit-maximizers that are allowed to specialize in profitable activities. They generally focus on day-care admissions. We provide empirical evidence that private hospitals experience a significant change in the composition of their admissions when they start providing emergency care. Opening an ED creates a new non-selective entryway to private hospitals, resulting in admissions of inpatients with health problems that are more severe. Hence, involving PFP hospitals in the provision of emergency care is likely to make the structure of admissions of private hospitals closer to that of public hospitals.

Evaluating whole system reforms: A structured approach for selecting multiple outcomes

Whole-system reforms, including devolution and integration of health and social care services, have the potential to impact multiple dimensions of health system performance. Most evaluations focus on a single or narrow subsets of outcomes amenable to change. This approach may not: (i) capture the overall effect of the reform, (ii) identify the mechanisms through which system-wide changes may have occurred, (iii) prevent post-hoc selection of outcomes based on significant results; and (iv) facilitate comparisons across settings. We propose a structured approach for selecting multiple quantitative outcome measures, which we apply for evaluating health and social care devolution in Greater Manchester, England. The approach consists of five-steps: (i) defining outcome domains based on a framework, in our case the World Health Organisation's Health System Performance Assessment Framework; (ii) reviewing performance metrics from national monitoring frameworks; (iii) excluding similar and condition specific outcomes; (iv) excluding outcomes with insufficient data; and (v) mapping implemented policies to identify a subset of targeted outcomes. We identified 99 outcomes, of which 57 were targeted. The proposed approach is detail and time-intensive, but useful for both researchers and policymakers to promote transparency in evaluations and facilitate the interpretation of findings and cross-settings comparisons.

Reducing unplanned hospital admissions from care homes: a systematic review

Background

Care homes predominantly care for older people with complex health and care needs, who are at high risk of unplanned hospital admissions. While often necessary, such admissions can be distressing and provide an opportunity cost as well as a financial cost.

Objectives

Our objective was to update a 2014 evidence review of interventions to reduce unplanned admissions of care home residents. We carried out a systematic review of interventions used in the UK and other high-income countries by synthesising evidence of effects of these interventions on hospital admissions; feasibility and acceptability; costs and value for money; and factors affecting applicability of international evidence to UK settings.

Data sources

We searched the following databases in December 2021 for studies published since 2014: Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews; Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature; Health Management Information Consortium; Medline; PsycINFO; Science and Social Sciences Citation Indexes; Social Care Online; and Social Service Abstracts. 'Grey' literature (January 2022) and citations were searched and reference lists were checked.

Methods

We included studies of any design reporting interventions delivered in care homes (with or without nursing) or hospitals to reduce unplanned hospital admissions. A taxonomy of interventions was developed from an initial scoping search. Outcomes of interest included measures of effect on unplanned admissions among care home residents; barriers/facilitators to implementation in a UK setting and acceptability to care home residents, their families and staff. Study selection, data extraction and risk of bias assessment were performed by two independent reviewers. We used published frameworks to extract data on intervention characteristics, implementation barriers/facilitators and applicability of international evidence. We performed a narrative synthesis grouped by intervention type and setting. Overall strength of evidence for admission reduction was assessed using a framework based on study design, study numbers and direction of effect.

Results

We included 124 publications/reports (30 from the UK). Integrated care and quality improvement programmes providing additional support to care homes (e.g. the English Care Homes Vanguard initiatives and hospital-based services in Australia) appeared to reduce unplanned admissions relative to usual care. Simpler training and staff development initiatives showed mixed results, as did interventions aimed at tackling specific problems (e.g. medication review). Advance care planning was key to the success of most quality improvement programmes but do-not-hospitalise orders were problematic. Qualitative research identified tensions affecting decision-making involving paramedics, care home staff and residents/family carers. The best way to reduce end-of-life admissions through access to palliative care was unclear in the face of inconsistent and generally low-quality evidence.

Conclusions

Effective implementation of interventions at various stages of residents' care pathways may reduce unplanned admissions. Most interventions are complex and require adaptation to local contexts. Work at the interface between health and social care is key to successful implementation.

Limitations

Much of the evidence identified was of low quality because of factors such as uncontrolled study designs and small sample size. Meta-analysis was not possible.

Future work

We identified a need for improved economic evidence and the evaluation of integrated care models of the type delivered by hospital-based teams. Researchers should carefully consider what is realistic in terms of study design and data collection given the current context of extreme pressure on care homes.

Study registration

This study is registered as PROSPERO database CRD42021289418.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health and Social Care Delivery Research programme (award number NIHR133884) and will be published in full in Health and Social Care Delivery Research; Vol. 11, No. 18. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Back to basics: A mediation analysis approach to addressing the fundamental questions of integrated care evaluations

Health systems around the world are aiming to improve the integration of health and social care services to deliver better care for patients. Existing evaluations have focused exclusively on the impact of care integration on health outcomes and found little effect. That suggests the need to take a step back and ask whether integrated care programmes actually lead to greater clinical integration of care and indeed whether greater integration is associated with improved health outcomes. We propose a mediation analysis approach to address these two fundamental questions when evaluating integrated care programmes. We illustrate our approach by re-examining the impact of an English integrated care program on clinical integration and assessing whether greater integration is causally associated with fewer admissions for ambulatory care sensitive conditions. We measure clinical integration using a concentration index of outpatient referrals at the general practice level. While we find that the scheme increased integration of primary and secondary care, clinical integration did not mediate a decrease in unplanned hospital admissions. Our analysis emphasizes the need to better understand the hypothesized causal impact of integration on health outcomes and demonstrates how mediation analysis can inform future evaluations and program design.

The Long-Term Impacts of an Integrated Care Programme on Hospital Utilisation among Older Adults in the South of England: A Synthetic Control Study

Introduction

Reducing hospital use is often viewed as a possible positive consequence of introducing integrated care (IC). We investigated the impact of an IC programme in North East Hampshire and Farnham (NEHF), in southern England, on hospital utilisation among older adults over a 55 months period.

Method

We used a Generalised Synthetic Control design to investigate the effect of implementing IC in NEHF between 2015 and 2020. For a range of hospital use outcomes, we estimated the trajectory that each would have followed in the absence of IC and compared it with the actual trajectory to estimate the potential impact of IC.

Results

Three years into the programme, emergency admission rates started reducing in NEHF relative to its synthetic control, particularly those resulting in overnight hospital stays. By year 5 of the study overall emergency admission rates were 9.8% lower (95% confidence interval: -17.2% to -0.6%). We found no sustained difference in rates of emergency department (ED) visits, and average length of hospital stay was significantly higher from year 2.

Conclusion

An IC programme in NEHF led to lower than estimated emergency admission rates; however, the interpretation of the impact of IC on admissions is complicated as lower rates did not appear until three years into the programme and the reliability of the synthetic control weakens over a long time horizon. There was no sustained change in ED visit rates.

Towards achieving interorganisational collaboration between health-care providers: a realist evidence synthesis

Background

Interorganisational collaboration is currently being promoted to improve the performance of NHS providers. However, up to now, there has, to the best of our knowledge, been no systematic attempt to assess the effect of different approaches to collaboration or to understand the mechanisms through which interorganisational collaborations can work in particular contexts.

Objectives

Our objectives were to (1) explore the main strands of the literature about interorganisational collaboration and to identify the main theoretical and conceptual frameworks, (2) assess the empirical evidence with regard to how different interorganisational collaborations may (or may not) lead to improved performance and outcomes, (3) understand and learn from NHS evidence users and other stakeholders about how and where interorganisational collaborations can best be used to support turnaround processes, (4) develop a typology of interorganisational collaboration that considers different types and scales of collaboration appropriate to NHS provider contexts and (5) generate evidence-informed practical guidance for NHS providers, policy-makers and others with responsibility for implementing and assessing interorganisational collaboration arrangements.

Design

A realist synthesis was carried out to develop, test and refine theories about how interorganisational collaborations work, for whom and in what circumstances.

Data sources

Data sources were gathered from peer-reviewed and grey literature, realist interviews with 34 stakeholders and a focus group with patient and public representatives.

Review methods

Initial theories and ideas were gathered from scoping reviews that were gleaned and refined through a realist review of the literature. A range of stakeholder interviews and a focus group sought to further refine understandings of what works, for whom and in what circumstances with regard to high-performing interorganisational collaborations.

Results

A realist review and synthesis identified key mechanisms, such as trust, faith, confidence and risk tolerance, within the functioning of effective interorganisational collaborations. A stakeholder analysis refined this understanding and, in addition, developed a new programme theory of collaborative performance, with mechanisms related to cultural efficacy, organisational efficiency and technological effectiveness. A series of translatable tools, including a diagnostic survey and a collaboration maturity index, were also developed.

Limitations

The breadth of interorganisational collaboration arrangements included made it difficult to make specific recommendations for individual interorganisational collaboration types. The stakeholder analysis focused exclusively on England, UK, where the COVID-19 pandemic posed challenges for fieldwork.

Conclusions

Implementing successful interorganisational collaborations is a difficult, complex task that requires significant time, resource and energy to achieve the collaborative functioning that generates performance improvements. A delicate balance of building trust, instilling faith and maintaining confidence is required for high-performing interorganisational collaborations to flourish.

Future work

Future research should further refine our theory by incorporating other workforce and user perspectives. Research into digital platforms for interorganisational collaborations and outcome measurement are advocated, along with place-based and cross-sectoral partnerships, as well as regulatory models for overseeing interorganisational collaborations.

Study registration

The study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42019149009.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health and Social Care Delivery Research programme and will be published in full in Health and Social Care Delivery Research; Vol. 11, No. 6. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Scale and spread of innovation in health and social care: Insights from the evaluation of the New Care Model/Vanguard programme in England

OBJECTIVE

Little is known about how to achieve scale and spread beyond the early local adoption of an innovative health care programme. We use the New Care Model - or 'Vanguard' - programme in the English National Health Service to illuminate the process, assessing why only one of five Vanguard programmes was successfully scaled up.

METHODS

We interviewed a wide range of stakeholders involved in the Vanguard programme, including programme leads, provider organisations, and policymakers. We also consulted relevant documentation.

RESULTS

A lack of direction near the end of the Vanguard programme, a lack of ongoing resources, and limited success in providing real-time monitoring and evaluation may all have contributed to the failure to scale and spread most of the Vanguard models.

CONCLUSIONS

This programme is an example of the 'scale and spread paradox', in which localism was a key factor influencing the successful implementation of the Vanguards but ultimately limited their scale and spread.

A typology of integrated care policies in the care home sector: A policy document analysis

Background

Health and social care systems in many countries have begun to trial and adopt "integrated" approaches. Yet, the significant role care homes play within the health and social care system is often understated. A key first step to identifying the care home integration interventions that are most (cost-)effective is the ability to precisely identify and record what has been implemented, where, and when-a "policy map."

Methods

To address gaps relating to the identification and recording of (cost-)effective integrated care home interventions, we developed a new typology tool. We conducted a policy mapping exercise in a devolved region of England-Greater Manchester (GM). Specifically, we carried out systematic policy documentary searches and extracted a range of qualitative data relating to integrated health and social care initiatives in the GM region for care homes. The data were then classified according to existing national ambitions for England as well as a generic health systems framework to illustrate gaps in existing recording tools and to iteratively develop a novel approach.

Results

A combined total of 124 policy documents were identified and screened, in which 131 specific care home integration initiatives were identified. Current initiatives emphasized monitoring quality in care homes, workforce training, and service delivery changes (such as multi-disciplinary teams). There was comparatively little emphasis on financing or other incentive changes to stimulate provider behavior for the care home setting. We present a novel typology for capturing and comparing care home integration policy initiatives, largely conceptualizing which part of the system or specific transition point the care home integration is targeting, or whether there is a broader cross-cutting system intervention being enacted, such as digital or financial interventions.

Conclusions

Our typology builds on the gaps in current frameworks, including previous lack of specificity to care homes and lack of adaptability to new and evolving initiatives internationally. It could provide a useful tool for policymakers to identify gaps in the implementation of initiatives within their own areas, while also allowing researchers to evaluate what works most effectively and efficiently in future research based on a comprehensive policy map.

Reforming healthcare in the Netherlands: practical population health management and the Plot model: A questionnaire survey and focus group study to assess the willingness and readiness of six regions in the Netherlands

Objective

As in many other countries, the Netherlands is facing challenges in the provision of healthcare to its population. To ensure the population remains in good health in coming decades, an integrative approach to the many factors that influence health and health outcomes is needed. Population health management is gaining interest as a strategic framework for systems change in healthcare organisations. Based on population health management, the Dutch HealthKIC has developed the 'Plot model', which takes a regional perspective. The aim of this study was to detail the extent to which six prospective regions in the Netherlands were ready and willing to implement population health management using the Plot model, guided by the Five Lenses Model.

Methods

Using an exploratory focus group reporting study, we involved stakeholders from six regions in the Netherlands. Thematic analysis followed the five predesigned dimensions of a validated cooperation model.

Results

The study uncovered the potential for realisation of model aims, as assessed by an expert team, regarding shared ambition, mutual gains, relationship dynamics, organisational dynamics and process management. The exploratory questionnaire suggested that organisational dynamics is the least integrated topic in all areas, followed by process management, a finding confirmed in focus groups.

Conclusion

The building themes of the Five Lenses Model all represent preconditions for the success of integration in the prospective regions. The present study showed that while some themes were reasonably represented in prospective regions, no region was satisfactory for all themes.

A protocol for a multi-site cohort study to evaluate child and adolescent mental health service transformation in England using the i-THRIVE model

The National i-THRIVE Programme seeks to evaluate the impact of the NHS England-funded whole system transformation on child and adolescent mental health services (CAMHS). This article reports on the design for a model of implementation that has been applied in CAMHS across over 70 areas in England using the 'THRIVE' needs-based principles of care. The implementation protocol in which this model, 'i-THRIVE' (implementing-THRIVE), will be used to evaluate the effectiveness of the THRIVE intervention is reported, together with the evaluation protocol for the process of implementation. To evaluate the effectiveness of i-THRIVE to improve care for children and young people's mental health, a cohort study design will be conducted. N = 10 CAMHS sites that adopt the i-THRIVE model from the start of the NHS England-funded CAMHS transformation will be compared to N = 10 'comparator sites' that choose to use different transformation approaches within the same timeframe. Sites will be matched on population size, urbanicity, funding, level of deprivation and expected prevalence of mental health care needs. To evaluate the process of implementation, a mixed-methods approach will be conducted to explore the moderating effects of context, fidelity, dose, pathway structure and reach on clinical and service level outcomes. This study addresses a unique opportunity to inform the ongoing national transformation of CAMHS with evidence about a popular new model for delivering children and young people's mental health care, as well as a new implementation approach to support whole system transformation. If the outcomes reflect benefit from i-THRIVE, this study has the potential to guide significant improvements in CAMHS by providing a more integrated, needs-led service model that increases access and involvement of patients with services and in the care they receive.

Upstreamist leaders: how risk factors for unscheduled return visits (URV) to the emergency department can inform integrated healthcare

PURPOSE

This paper aims to report on research undertaken in an National Health Service (NHS) emergency department in the north of England, UK, to identify which patients, with which clinical conditions are returning to the emergency department with an unscheduled return visit (URV) within seven days. This paper analyses the data in relation to the newly introduced Integrated Care Boards (ICBs). The continued upward increase in demand for emergency care services requires a new type of "upstreamist", health system leader from the emergency department, who can report on URV data to influence the development of integrated care services to reduce further demand on the emergency department.

DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH

Patients were identified through the emergency department symphony data base and included patients with at least one return visit to emergency department (ED) within seven days. A sample of 1,000 index visits between 1 January 2019-31 October 2019 was chosen by simple random sampling technique through Excel. Out of 1,000, only 761 entries had complete data in all variables. A statistical analysis was undertaken using Poisson regression using NCSS statistical software. A review of the literature on integrated health care and its relationship with health systems leadership was undertaken to conceptualise a new type of "upstreamist" system leadership to advance the integration of health care.

FINDINGS

Out of all 83 variables regressed with statistical analysis, only 12 variables were statistically significant on multi-variable regression. The most statistically important factor were patients presenting with gynaecological disorders, whose relative rate ratio (RR) for early-URV was 43% holding the other variables constant. Eye problems were also statistically highly significant (RR = 41%) however, clinically both accounted for just 1% and 2% of the URV, respectively. The URV data combined with "upstreamist" system leadership from the ED is required as a critical mechanism to identify gaps and inform a rationale for integrated care models to lessen further demand on emergency services in the ED.

RESEARCH LIMITATIONS/IMPLICATIONS

At a time of significant pressure for emergency departments, there needs to be a move towards more collaborative health system leadership with support from statistical analyses of the URV rate, which will continue to provide critical information to influence the development of integrated health and care services. This study identifies areas for further research, particularly for mixed methods studies to ascertain why patients with specific complaints return to the emergency department and if alternative pathways could be developed. The success of the Esther model in Sweden gives hope that patient-centred service development could create meaningful integrated health and care services.

PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS

This research was a large-scale quantitative study drawing upon data from one hospital in the UK to identify risk factors for URV. This quality metric can generate important data to inform the development of integrated health and care services. Further research is required to review URV data for the whole of the NHS and with the new Integrated Health and Care Boards, there is a new impetus to push for this metric to provide robust data to prioritise the need to develop integrated services where there are gaps.

ORIGINALITY/VALUE

To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first large-scale study of its kind to generate whole hospital data on risk factors for URVs to the emergency department. The URV is an important global quality metric and will continue to generate important data on those patients with specific complaints who return back to the emergency department. This is a critical time for the NHS and at the same time an important opportunity to develop "Esther" patient-centred approaches in the design of integrated health and care services.

Has COVID-19 changed carer's views of health and care integration in care homes? A sentiment difference-in-difference analysis of on-line service reviews

Closer integration of health and social care is a policy priority in many countries. The COVID-19 pandemic has reinforced the necessity of joining up health and social care systems, especially in care home settings. However, the meaning and perceived importance of integration for residents' and carers' experience is unclear and we do not know whether it has changed during the pandemic. Using unique data from on-line care home service reviews, we combined multiple methods. We used Natural Language Processing with supervised machine learning to construct a measure of sentiment for care home residents' and their relatives' (measured by AFINN score). Difference-in-difference analysis was used to examine whether experiencing integrated care altered these sentiments by comparing changes in sentiment in reviews related to integration (containing specific terms) to those which were not. Finally, we used network analysis on post-estimation results to assess which specific attributes stakeholders focus on most when detailing their most/least positive experiences of health and care integration in care homes, and whether these attributes changed over the pandemic. Reviews containing integration words were more positive than reviews unrelated to integration in the pre-pandemic period (about 2.3 points on the AFINN score) and remained so during the first year of the pandemic. Overall positive sentiment increased during the COVID-19 period (average by +1.1 points), mainly in reviews mentioning integration terms at the beginning of the first (+2.17, p-value 0.175) and second waves (+3.678, p-value 0.027). The role of care home staff was pivotal in both positive and negative reviews, with a shift from aspects related to care in pre-pandemic to information services during the pandemic, signalling their importance in translating integrated needs-based paradigms into policy and practice.

Cost-effectiveness of a community-based integrated care model compared with usual care for older adults with complex needs: a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial

Objective

To assess the cost of implementation, delivery and cost-effectiveness (CE) of a flagship community-based integrated care model (OPEN ARCH) against the usual primary care.

Design

A 9-month stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial.

Setting and participants

Community-dwelling older adults with chronic conditions and complex care needs were recruited from primary care (14 general practices) in Far North Queensland, Australia.

Methods

Costs and outcomes were measured at 3-month windows from the healthcare system and patient’s out-of-pocket perspectives for the analysis. Outcomes included functional status (Functional Independence Measure (FIM)) and health-related quality of life (EQ-5D-3L and AQoL-8D). Bayesian CE analysis with 10 000 Monte Carlo simulations was performed using the BCEA package in R (V.3.6.1).

Results

The OPEN ARCH model of care had an average cost of $A1354 per participant. The average age of participants was 81, and 55% of the cohort were men. Within-trial multilevel regression models adjusted for time, general practitioner cluster and baseline confounders showed no significant differences in costs, resource use or effect measures regardless of the analytical perspective. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis with 10 000 simulations showed that OPEN ARCH could be recommended over usual care for improving functional independence at a willing to pay above $A600 (US$440) per improvement of one point on the FIM Scale and for avoiding or reducing inpatient stay for any willingness-to-pay threshold up to $A50 000 (US$36 500).

Conclusions and implications

OPEN ARCH was associated with a favourable Bayesian CE profile in improving functional status and dependency levels, avoiding or reducing inpatient stay compared with usual primary care in the Australian context.

Trial registration number

ACTRN12617000198325.

Effectiveness of a population-based integrated care model in reducing hospital activity: an interrupted time series analysis

Objectives

First impact assessment analysis of an integrated care model (ICM) to reduce hospital activity in the London Borough of Hillingdon, UK.

Methods

We evaluated a population-based ICM consisting of multiple interventions based on self-management, multidisciplinary teams, case management and discharge management. The sample included 331 330 registered Hillingdon residents (at the time of data extraction) between October 2018 and July 2020. Longitudinal data was extracted from the Whole Systems Integrated Care database. Interrupted time series Poisson and Negative binomial regressions were used to examine changes in non-elective hospital admissions (NEL admissions), accident and emergency visits (A&E) and length of stay (LoS) at the hospital. Multiple imputations were used to replace missing data. Subgroup analysis of various groups with and without long-term conditions (LTC) was also conducted using the same models.

Results

In the whole registered population of Hillingdon at the time of data collection, gradual decline over time in NEL admissions (RR 0.91, 95% CI 0.90 to 0.92), A&E visits (RR 0.94, 95% CI 0.93 to 0.95) and LoS (RR 0.93, 95% CI 0.92 to 0.94) following an immediate increase during the first months of implementation in the three outcomes was observed. Subgroup analysis across different groups, including those with and without LTCs, showed similar effects. Sensitivity analysis did not show a notable change compared with the original analysis.

Conclusion

The Hillingdon ICM showed effectiveness in reducing NEL admissions, A&E visits and LoS. However, further investigations and analyses could confirm the results of this study and rule out the potential effects of some confounding events, such as the emergence of COVID-19 pandemic.

The effects of multi-disciplinary integrated care on healthcare utilization: Evidence from a natural experiment in the UK

Better integration is a priority for most international health systems. However, multiple interventions are often implemented simultaneously, making evaluation difficult and providing limited evidence for policy makers about specific interventions. We evaluate a common integrated care intervention, multi-disciplinary group (MDG) meetings for discussion of high-risk patients, introduced in one socio-economically deprived area in the UK in spring 2015. Using data from multiple waves of the national GP Patient Survey and Hospital Episode Statistics, we estimate its effects on primary and secondary care utilization and costs, health status and patient experience. We use triple differences, exploiting the targeting at people aged 65 years and over, parsing effects from other population-level interventions implemented simultaneously. The intervention reduced the probability of visiting a primary care nurse by three percentage points and decreased length of stay by 1 day following emergency care admission. However, since planned care use increased, overall costs were unaffected. MDG meetings are presumably fulfilling public health objectives by decreasing length of stay and detecting previously unmet needs. However, the effect of MDGs on health system cost is uncertain and health remains unchanged. Evaluations of specific integrated care interventions may be more useful to public decision makers facing budget constraints.

Integrated care for older people based on information and communication technology: a scoping review protocol

INTRODUCTION

Integrated care is an effective means of coping with the increasingly complex healthcare needs of elderly and alleviating pressure on national pension services. WHO regards integrated care as a method of providing high-quality healthcare and advocates integrated care based on digital technology. Against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic, information and communication technology (ICT) has become a facilitator for the successful implementation of integrated care by providing a platform for information sharing, team communication and resource integration. This scoping review aims to assess internationally published evidence concerning experiences and practice of ICT-based implementation of integrated care for older people.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The study will follow the research framework developed by Arksey and O'Malley for scoping reviews. We will conduct a systematic search of the literature published from January 2000 to March 2022 via electronic databases, grey literature databases, websites of key organisations and project funding sources, key journals and reference lists included in selected papers, employ the Joanna Briggs Institute Literature Quality Assessment Tool to assess the quality of the included literature and apply thematic analysis to sort and summarise the content of the included studies. This study will begin in March 2022 and will be completed in December 2022.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval for this scoping review was granted by the Academic Committee of Zhengzhou University (ZZUIRB2021-155). This study will summarise the modes of operation and effects, barriers and facilitators of ICT-based implementation of integrated care for older people. We propose to recruit older people and integrated care service providers in rural primary healthcare centres and use a structured process of concept mapping to consult and discuss the results of our scoping review to construct an integrated care model and service pathway for older adults that is appropriate to the Chinese social context.

Defining Pooled' Place-Based' Budgets for Health and Social Care: A Scoping Review

Introduction

Current descriptions of pooled budgets in the literature pose challenges to good quality evaluation of their contribution to integrated care. Addressing this gap is increasingly important given the shift from early models of integrated care targeting segments of the population, to more recent approaches that aim to target 'places', broader geographically defined populations. This review draws on the current international evidence to describe practical examples of pooled health and social care budgets, highlighting specific place-based approaches.

Methods

We initially conducted a scoping review, a systematic database search ('Medline', 'Embase', 'Econ Lit' and 'Google Scholar') complemented by further snowballing for academic and 'grey literature' publications (1995 - 2020). Results were analysed thematically according to budget characteristics and macro-environment, with additional specific case studies.

Results

Thirty-six primary studies were included, describing ten broad models of pooled budgets across seven countries. Most budgets targeted specific sub-populations rather than an entire geographically defined population. Specific budget structures varied and were generally under-described. The closest place-based models were for small populations and implemented in a national health system, or insurance-based with natural geographical boundaries.

Conclusion

Despite their increasing relevance in the current political debate, pooled place-based budgets are still at an early stage of implementation and research. Adequate description is required for future meta-analysis of effectiveness on outcomes.

Assessing the effect of a regional integrated care model over ten years using quality indicators based on claims data - the basic statistical methodology of the INTEGRAL project

BACKGROUND

The regional integrated health care model "Healthy Kinzigtal" started in 2006 with the goal of optimizing health care and economic efficiency. The INTEGRAL project aimed at evaluating the effect of this model on the quality of care over the first 10 years.

METHODS

This methodological protocol supplements the study protocol and the main publication of the project. Comparing quality indicators based on claims data between the intervention region and 13 structurally similar control regions constitutes the basic scientific approach. Methodological key issues in performing such a comparison are identified and solutions are presented.

RESULTS

A key step in the analysis is the assessment of a potential trend in prevalence for a single quality indicator over time in the intervention region compared to the corresponding trends in the control regions. This step has to take into account that there may be a common - not necessarily linear - trend in the indicator over time and that trends can also appear by chance. Conceptual and statistical approaches were developed to handle this key step and to assess in addition the overall evidence for an intervention effect across all indicators. The methodology can be extended in several directions of interest.

CONCLUSIONS

We believe that our approach can handle the major statistical challenges: population differences are addressed by standardization; we offer transparency with respect to the derivation of the key figures; global time trends and structural changes do not invalidate the analyses; the regional variation in time trends is taken into account. Overall, the project demanded substantial efforts to ensure adequateness, validity and transparency.

How local partnerships to improve urgent and emergency care have impacted delayed transfers of care from hospitals in England: an analysis based on a synthetic control estimation method

OBJECTIVES

Patients should be discharged from hospital when they are medically fit. However, discharges are often delayed for non-medical reasons including access to social care. One aim of local health and social care partnerships to improve urgent and emergency care in England (known as urgent and emergency care (UEC) vanguards) was to improve integration of health and social care, which could lead to fewer delays. Consequently, we aimed to assess the impact of UEC vanguards on delayed discharges from hospital (delayed transfers of care (DTOC)) in England.

DESIGN

Using a synthetic control estimation method 29 local authorities (LAs) that were UEC vanguards partners were averaged into a single 'treated' unit and compared with a unit created using data from LAs that were not UEC vanguards partners to estimate the impact of UEC vanguards on DTOC. Sensitivity analysis included fixed effects panel regressions and various placebo tests.

SETTING

150 LAs in England (excluding city of London and Isles of Scilly); 29 LAs were partners in UEC vanguards between August 2015 and March 2018.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE

Quarterly data on days of DTOC at LA level for the period 2010-2017.

RESULTS

Synthetic control estimation showed a large difference in DTOC days between UEC vanguards partner LAs compared with those that were not, with on average 23.7% lower DTOC per quarter (491 DTOC days per quarter). Fixed effect panel regressions found DTOC rates lower by 43.1% (99% CI 13.8% to 72.4%) in UEC partner LAs after the start of the vanguards programme. We found no indication of UEC partner LAs having lower DTOC rates prior to initiation of vanguards.

CONCLUSIONS

The evidence indicates a sizeable statistically significant impact of UEC vanguards on DTOC; however, more research is required to explain the underlying reasons for this relationship.

Integrated Care in England - what can we Learn from a Decade of National Pilot Programmes?

Introduction

For more than a decade the English NHS has pursued integrated care through three national pilot programmes. The independent evaluators of these programmes here identify several common themes that inform the development of integrated care.

Description

The three pilot programmes shared the aim of better coordination between hospital and community-based health services and between health and social care. Each programme recruited local pilot sites that designed specific interventions to support inter-professional and inter-organisational collaboration.The pilots were highly heterogenous and results varied both within and between the three programmes. While staff were generally positive about their achievements, pilots had mixed success especially in reducing unplanned hospital admissions. Common facilitators to achieving pilots' objectives included effective senior leadership and shared values, simple interventions and additional funding. Barriers included short timescales, poor professional engagement, information and data sharing problems, and conflicts with changing national policy.

Discussion

There was little stable or shared understanding of what 'integrated care' meant resulting in different practices and priorities. An increasing focus on reducing unplanned hospital use among national sponsors created a mismatch in expectations between local and national actors.

Conclusion

Pilots in all three national programmes made some headway against their objectives but were limited in their impact on unplanned hospital admissions.

Complements or substitutes? Associations between volumes of care provided in the community and hospitals

Policymakers often suggest that expansion of care in community settings may ease increasing pressures on hospital services. Substitution may lower overall health system costs, but complementarity due to previously unidentified needs might raise them. We used new national data on community and primary medical care services in England to undertake system-level analyses of whether activity in the community acts as a complement or a substitute for activity provided in hospitals. We used two-way fixed effects regression to relate monthly counts of community care and primary medical care contacts to emergency department attendances, outpatient visits and admissions for 242 hospitals between November 2017 and September 2019. We then used national unit costs to estimate the effects of increasing community activity on overall system expenditure. The findings show community care contacts to be weak substitutes with all types of hospital activity and primary care contacts are weak substitutes for emergency hospital attendances and admissions. Our estimates ranged from 28 [95% CI 21, 45] to 517 [95% CI 291, 7265] community care contacts and from 34 [95% CI 17, 1283] to 1655 [95% CI - 1995, 70,145] GP appointments to reduce one hospital service visit. Primary care and planned hospital services are complements. Increases in community services and primary care activity are both associated with increased overall system expenditure of £34 [95% CI £156, £54] per visit for community care and £41 [95% CI £78, £74] per appointment in general practice. Expansion of community-based services may not generate reductions in hospital activity and expenditure.

Market concentration, supply, quality and prices paid by local authorities in the English care home market

We investigate the impact of exogenous local conditions which favor high market concentration on supply, price and quality in local markets for care homes for older people in England. We extend the existing literature in: (i) considering supply capacity as a market outcome alongside price and quality; (ii) taking account of the chain structure of care home supply and differences between the nursing home and residential care home sectors; (iii) using an econometric approach based on reduced form relationships that treats market concentration as a jointly determined outcome of a complex market. We find that areas susceptible to a high degree of market concentration tend to have greatly restricted supply of care home places and (to a lesser extent) a higher average public cost, than areas susceptible to low degree of market concentration. There is no significant evidence that conditions favoring high market concentration affect average care home quality.

Models of provider care in long-term care: A rapid scoping review

INTRODUCTION

One of the current challenges in long-term care homes (LTCH) is to identify the optimal model of care, which may include specialty physicians, nursing staff, person support workers, among others. There is currently no consensus on the complement or scope of care delivered by these providers, nor is there a repository of studies that evaluate the various models of care. We conducted a rapid scoping review to identify and map what care provider models and interventions in LTCH have been evaluated to improve quality of life, quality of care, and health outcomes of residents.

METHODS

We conducted this review over 10-weeks of English language, peer-reviewed studies published from 2010 onward. Search strategies for databases (e.g., MEDLINE) were run on July 9, 2020. Studies that evaluated models of provider care (e.g., direct patient care), or interventions delivered to facility, staff, and residents of LTCH were included. Study selection was performed independently, in duplicate. Mapping was performed by two reviewers, and data were extracted by one reviewer, with partial verification by a second reviewer.

RESULTS

A total of 7,574 citations were screened based on the title/abstract, 836 were reviewed at full text, and 366 studies were included. Studies were classified according to two main categories: healthcare service delivery (n = 92) and implementation strategies (n = 274). The condition/ focus of the intervention was used to further classify the interventions into subcategories. The complex nature of the interventions may have led to a study being classified in more than one category/subcategory.

CONCLUSION

Many healthcare service interventions have been evaluated in the literature in the last decade. Well represented interventions (e.g., dementia care, exercise/mobility, optimal/appropriate medication) may present opportunities for future systematic reviews. Areas with less research (e.g., hearing care, vision care, foot care) have the potential to have an impact on balance, falls, subsequent acute care hospitalization.

Ten-Year Evaluation of the Population-Based Integrated Health Care System "Gesundes Kinzigtal"

BACKGROUND

The population-based integrated health care system called "Gesundes Kinzigtal" (Integrierte Versorgung Gesundes Kinzigtal, IVGK) was initiated more than 10 years ago in the Kinzig River Valley region, which is located in the Black Forest in the German state of Baden-Württemberg. IVGK is intended to optimize health care while maximizing cost-effectiveness. It consists of programs for promoting health and for enabling cooperation among service providers, as well as of a shared-savings contract that has enabled resources to be saved every year. The goal of the present study was to investigate trends in the quality of care provided by IVGK over the past ten years in comparison to conventional care.

METHODS

This is a non-randomized observational study with a control-group design (Kinzig River Valley versus 13 structurally comparable control regions), employing data collected by AOK, a large statutory health-insurance provider in Germany, over the period 2006-2015. Quality assessment was conducted with the aid of a set of indicators, developed by the authors, that was based exclusively on claims data. The statistical analysis of the trends in these indicators over time was conducted with preset criteria for the relevance of any observed changes, as well as preset mechanisms of controlling for confounding factors.

RESULTS

For 88 of the 101 evaluable indicators, no relevant difference was seen between the trend over time in the region of the intervention and the average trend in the control regions. Relevant differences in favor of the IVGK were observed for six indicators, and negatively divergent trends compared to the controls were observed for seven indicators. In the main summarizing statistical analysis, no positive or negative difference was found between the Kinzig River Valley and the other regions with respect to trends in the health-care indicators over time.

CONCLUSION

An evaluation based on 101 indicators derived from health-insurance data did not reveal any improvement of the quality of care by IVGK and the totality of the programs that were implemented under it. However, under the conditions of the shared-savings contract, no relevant diminution in the quality of care was observed over a period of 10 years either, compared with structurally similar control regions without an integrated care model.

Comparison of the impact of two national health and social care integration programmes on emergency hospital admissions

Background

Policy-makers expect that integration of health and social care will improve user and carer experience and reduce avoidable hospital use. [We] evaluate the impact on emergency hospital admissions of two large nationally-initiated service integration programmes in England: the Pioneer (November 2013 to March 2018) and Vanguard (January 2015 to March 2018) programmes. The latter had far greater financial and expert support from central agencies.

Methods

Of the 206 Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs) in England, 51(25%) were involved in the Pioneer programme only, 22(11%) were involved in the Vanguard programme only and 13(6%) were involved in both programmes. We used quasi-experimental methods to compare monthly counts of emergency admissions between four groups of CCGs, before and after the introduction of the two programmes.

Results

CCGs involved in the programmes had higher monthly hospital emergency admission rates than non-participants prior to their introduction [7.9 (95% CI:7.8–8.1) versus 7.5 (CI: 7.4–7.6) per 1000 population]. From 2013 to 2018, there was a 12% (95% CI:9.5–13.6%) increase in emergency admissions in CCGs not involved in either programme while emergency admissions in CCGs in the Pioneer and Vanguard programmes increased by 6.4% (95% CI: 3.8–9.0%) and 8.8% (95% CI:4.5–13.1%), respectively. CCGs involved in both initiatives experienced a smaller increase of 3.5% (95% CI:-0.3–7.2%). The slowdown largely occurred in the final year of both programmes.

Conclusions

Health and social care integration programmes can mitigate but not prevent rises in emergency admissions over the longer-term. Greater financial and expert support from national agencies and involvement in multiple integration initiatives can have cumulative effects.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12913-021-06692-x.

Primary Care Research - Influencing and Implementing Into Policy

This editorial describes how research in primary health care can be used to influence policy. It draws on previous literature to give an example from the UK of how research in one part of primary care, the health-visiting service, has endeavoured to use evidence to influence policy and practice. The editorial considers frameworks for policy implementation such as Bardach's eight phase approach and concepts that can inform policy implementation such as Lipsky's Street-Level Bureaucrat approach.

Investigating the nature and quality of locally commissioned evaluations of the NHS Vanguard programme: an evidence synthesis

BACKGROUND

With innovation in service delivery increasingly viewed as crucial to the long-term sustainability of health systems, NHS England launched an ambitious new model of care (Vanguard) programme in 2015. Supported by a £350 million transformation fund, 50 Vanguard sites were to act as pilots for innovation in service delivery, to move quickly to change the way that services were delivered, breaking down barriers between sectors and improving the coordination and delivery of care.

METHODS

As part of a national evaluation of the Vanguard programme, we conducted an evidence synthesis to assess the nature and quality of locally commissioned evaluations. With access to a secure, online hub used by the Vanguard and other integrated care initiatives, two researchers retrieved any documents from a locally commissioned evaluation for inclusion. All identified documents were downloaded and logged, and details of the evaluators, questions, methodological approaches and limitations in design and/or reporting were extracted. As included evaluations varied in nature and type, a narrative synthesis was undertaken.

RESULTS

We identified a total of 115 separate reports relating to the locally commissioned evaluations. Five prominent issues relating to evaluation conduct were identified across included reports: use of logic models, number and type of evaluation questions posed, data sharing and information governance, methodological challenges and evaluation reporting in general. A combination of resource, data and time constraints means that evaluations often attempted to but did not fully address the wide range of questions posed by individual Vanguards.

CONCLUSIONS

Significant investment was made in independent local evaluations of the Vanguard programme by NHS England. This synthesis represents the only comprehensive attempt to capture methodological learning and may serve as a key resource for researchers and policy-makers seeking to understand investigating large-scale system change, both within the NHS and internationally. PROSPERO (Registration number: CRD42017069282).

Does prevention-focused integration lead to the triple aim? An evaluation of two new care models in England

OBJECTIVES

To examine the effectiveness of two integrated care models ('vanguards') in Salford and South Somerset in England, United Kingdom, in relation to patient experience, health outcomes and costs of care (the 'triple aim').

METHODS

We used difference-in-differences analysis combined with propensity score weighting to compare the two care model sites with control ('usual care') areas in the rest of England. We estimated combined and separate annual effects in the three years following introduction of the new care model, using the national General Practice Patient Survey (GPPS) to measure patient experience (inter-organisational support with chronic condition management) and generic health status (EQ-5D); and hospital episode statistics (HES) data to measure total costs of secondary care. As secondary outcomes we measured proxies for improved prevention: cost per user of secondary care (severity); avoidable emergency admissions; and primary care utilisation.

RESULTS

Both intervention sites showed an increase in total costs of secondary care (approximately £74 per registered patient per year in Salford, £45 in South Somerset) and cost per user of secondary care (£130-138 per person per year). There were no statistically significant effects on health status or patient experience of care. There was a more apparent short-term negative effect on measured outcomes in South Somerset, in terms of increased costs and avoidable emergency admissions, but these reduced over time.

CONCLUSION

New care models such as those implemented within the Vanguard programme in England might lead to unintended secondary care cost increases in the short to medium term. Cost increases appeared to be driven by average patient severity increases in hospital. Prevention-focused population health management models of integrated care, like previous more targeted models, do not immediately improve the health system's triple aim.

Improving care in care homes: what can Primary Care Networks learn from the Vanguards?

Purpose

We trace the evolution of a new integrated care policy in the English NHS (enhanced health in care homes, EHCH) from pilot model to wider roll out, over a 4-year period, into the circumstances of COVID-19.

Design/methodology/approach

Using published evidence and official documentation we compared and contrasted the original EHCH model/framework, subsequent draft specifications and the final proposals, ahead of implementation.

Findings

The Primary Care Network EHCH service specification has clearly arisen from the Vanguard programme; however, problems related to GP contracts and COVID-19 means, at least initially, there is likely to be some variability over who will be responsible for delivery. It is unknown whether this service, delivered at pace in the current circumstances, will achieve or affect the outcomes envisaged by the pilots.

Research limitations/implications

This is our interpretation of the developing policy for enhanced health in care homes, which requires further follow-up research. We are beginning our final fieldwork phase in Summer 2020, to report on the Vanguard legacy.

Practical implications

Evaluations of policy success/failure should consider the context and the differing power relations that are present and may impact subsequent take-up and roll-out across the system. We recommend a longitudinal approach to enable a holistic view of policy implementation.

Originality/value

This paper reveals the fragility of health and care policymaking in the current climate. From initial concept, through development and testing, into forced early roll out, our observations reflect the unique impact of a global pandemic shock.