Prediction of mortality using quantification of renal function in acute heart failure

Renal Assessment in Acute Cardiorenal Syndrome

Cardiorenal syndrome (CRS) is a complex, heterogeneous spectrum of symptoms that has kept cardiologists awake for decades. The heart failure (HF) population being burdened with multimorbidity poses diagnostic and therapeutic challenges even for experienced clinicians. Adding deteriorated renal function to the equation, which is one of the strongest predictors of adverse outcome, we measure ourselves against possibly the biggest problem in modern cardiology. With the rapid development of new renal assessment methods, we can treat CRS more effectively than ever. The presented review focuses on explaining the pathophysiology, recent advances and current practices of monitoring renal function in patients with acute CRS. Understanding the dynamic interaction between the heart and the kidney may improve patient care and support the selection of an effective and nephroprotective treatment strategy.

Prognostic factors in children with acute fulminant myocarditis receiving venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation

Background

Pediatric acute fulminant myocarditis (AFM) is a very dangerous disease that may lead to acute heart failure or even sudden death. Previous reports have identified some prognostic factors in adult AFM; however, there is no such research on children with AFM on venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO). This study aimed to find relevant prognostic factors for predicting adverse clinical outcomes.

Methods

A retrospective analysis was performed in an affiliated university children’s hospital with consecutive patients receiving VA-ECMO for AFM from July 2010 to November 2020. These children were classified into a survivor group (n=33) and a non-survivor group (n=8). Patient demographics, clinical events, laboratory findings, and electrocardiographic and echocardiographic parameters were analyzed.

Results

Peak serum creatinine (SCr) and peak creatine kinase isoenzyme MB during ECMO had joint predictive value for in-hospital mortality (p=0.011, AUC=0.962). Based on multivariable logistic regression analysis, peak SCr level during ECMO support was an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality (OR=1.035, 95% CI 1.006 to 1.064, p=0.017, AUC=0.936, with optimal cut-off value of 78 μmol/L).

Conclusion

Tissue hypoperfusion and consequent end-organ damage ultimately hampered the outcomes. The need for left atrial decompression indicated a sicker patient on ECMO and introduced additional risk for complications. Earlier and more cautious deployment would likely be associated with decreased risk of complications and mortality.

The Prognostic Impact of Estimated Creatinine Clearance by Bioelectrical Impedance Analysis in Heart Failure: Comparison of Different eGFR Formulas

The estimation of glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) provides prognostic information in patients with heart failure (HF). Bioelectrical impedance analysis may calculate eGFR (Donadio formula). The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of the Donadio formula in predicting all-cause mortality in patients with HF as compared to Cockroft-Gault, MDRD-4 (Modification of Diet in renal Disease Study), and Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) formulas. Four-hundred thirty-six subjects with HF (52% men; mean age 75 ± 11 years; 42% acute HF) were enrolled. Ninety-two patients (21%) died during the follow-up (median 463 days, IQR 287-669). The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve for eGFR, as estimated by Cockroft-Gault formula (AUC = 0.75), was significantly higher than those derived from Donadio (AUC = 0.72), MDRD-4 (AUC = 0.68), and CKD-EPI (AUC = 0.71) formulas. At multivariate analysis, all eGFR formulas were independent predictors of death; 1 mL/min/1.73 m2 increase in eGFR-as measured by Cockroft-Gault, Donadio, MDRD-4, and CKD-EPI formulas-provided a 2.6%, 1.5%, 1.2%, and 1.6% increase, respectively, in mortality rate. Conclusions. eGFR, as calculated with the Donadio formula, was an independent predictor of mortality in patients with HF as well as the measurements derived from MDRD4 and CKD-EPI formulas, but less accurate than Cockroft-Gault.

Prognostic value of the modified model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score including albumin in acute heart failure

Background

Liver and renal function evaluated by the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, the MELD excluding the international normalized ratio (MELD_XI) score and the MELD including sodium (MELD_sodium) score have been considered predictors of adverse events for patients with acute heart failure (AHF). However, the prognostic value of the MELD including albumin (MELD_albumin) score in patients with AHF has not been assessed.

Methods

A total of 466 patients with AHF were prospectively evaluated. We compared the accuracy of the 4 MELD score formulas using the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and corresponding areas under the curve (AUC).

Results

During a median follow-up period of 34 months, 196 deaths occurred. In the fully adjusted Cox regression model, standardized hazard ratios with 95% confidence interval expressing the risk of all-cause mortality were 1.22 (1.06–1.40), 1.20 (1.04–1.39), 1.23 (1.06–1.42) and 1.21 (1.05–1.41) for MELD, MELD_XI, MELD_sodium and MELD_albumin scores, respectively. The MELD_albumin score showed the best prognostic accuracy (AUC = 0.658) for the prediction of long-term all-cause mortality, followed by the MELD_sodium score (AUC = 0.590), the MELD score (AUC = 0.580), and the MELD_XI score (AUC = 0.544); the MELD_albumin score performs significantly more accurate than MELD and MELD_XI score for predicting the risk of all-cause mortality. Considering reclassification, MELD_albumin score increased the net reclassification improvement over and beyond MELD (13.1%, P = 0.003), MELD_XI (14.8%, P = 0.002), and MELD_sodium (11.9%, P = 0.006) scores for all-cause mortality.

Conclusions

The MELD_albumin score increases risk stratification of all-cause mortality over and beyond the MELD score and the other modified MELD scores in patients with acute heart failure.

Estimated glomerular filtration rate predicts 30-day mortality in medical emergency departments: Results of a prospective multi-national observational study

BACKGROUND

Renal failure is common in patients seeking help in medical emergency departments. Decreased renal function is associated with increased mortality in patients with heart failure or sepsis. In this study, the association between renal function (reflected by estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) at the time of admission) and clinical outcome was evaluated.

METHODS/OBJECTIVES

Data was used from a prospective, multi-national, observational cohort of patients treated in three medical emergency departments of tertiary care centers. The eGFR was calculated from the creatinine at the time of admission (using the Chronic Kidney Disease-Epidemiology Collaboration equation,CKD-EPI). Uni- and multivariate regression models were used for eGFR and 30-day mortality, in hospital mortality, length of stay and intensive care unit admission rate.

RESULTS

6983 patients were included. The 30-day mortality was 1.8%, 3.5%, 6.9%, 11.1%, 13.6%, and 14.2% in patients with eGFR of above 90, 60-89, 45-59, 30-44, 15-29, and <15 ml/min/1.73m2, respectively. Using multivariate regression, the adjusted odds ratio (OR) was 2.31 (for 15-29 ml/min/1.73m2, 95% confidence interval 1.36 to 3.90, p = 0.002) and 3.73 (for eGFR <15ml/min/1.73m2 as compared to >90 ml/min/1.73m2, 95% CI 2.04 to 6.84, p<0.001). For 10 ml/min/1.73m2 decrease in eGFR the OR for the 30-day mortality was 1.15 (95% CI1.09 to 1.22, p<0.001).The eGFR was also significantly associated with in-hospital mortality, the percentage of ICU-admissions, and with a longer hospital stay. No association was found with hospital readmission within 30 days. As limitations, only eGFR at admission was available and the number of patients on hemodialysis was unknown.

CONCLUSION

Reduced eGFR at the time of admission is a strong and independent predictor for adverse outcome in this large population of patients admitted to medical emergency departments.

Acute heart failure and adverse events associated with the presence of renal dysfunction and hyperkalaemia. EAHFE- renal dysfunction and hyperkalaemia

OBJECTIVE

To study the outcomes of patients with acute heart failure (AHF) presenting renal dysfunction (RD) or hyperkalaemia (Hk) alone or in combination.

METHOD

We analysed the data of the EAHFE registry, a multicentre, non interventionist cohort with prospective follow-up of patients with AHF. Four groups were defined based on the presence or not of RD or Hk alone or in combination. The primary endpoint was 30-day all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 11,935 of the 13,791 patients included in the EAHFE registry were analysed. Of these, 5088 (42.6%) did not have RD or Hk (NoRD-NoHk), 150 (1.3%) had no RD but had Hk (NoRD-Hk), 6012 (50.4%) had RD but not Hk (RD-NoHk) and 685 (5.7%) had both RD and Hk (RD-Hk). Thirty-day all-cause mortality was greatest in the RD-Hk group with an adjusted Hazard Ratio (HR) of 2.44 (confidence interval 95% [CI95%] 1.67-3.55; p < 0.001) and in the RD-NoHk group with an adjusted HR of 1.34 (CI95% 1.04-1.71; p = 0.022). There were no significant differences in in-hospital mortality and reconsultation at 30 days for HF. For the combined endpoint of 30-day all-cause mortality the adjusted HR was 1.33 (CI95% 1.04-1.70); (p = 0.021) for the RD-Hk group.

CONCLUSIONS

The association of 30-day all-cause mortality with the presence of RD and Hk in patients presenting AHF at admission is greater than in those without this combination.

Cognitive impairment predicts mortality in outpatient veterans with heart failure

BACKGROUND

In our prior study of 250 outpatient veterans with heart failure (HF), 58% had unrecognized cognitive impairment (CI) which was linked to worsened medication adherence. Literature suggests HF patients with CI have poorer clinical outcomes including higher mortality.

OBJECTIVE

The study is to examine mortality rates in outpatients with HF and undiagnosed CI compared to their cognitively intact peers.

METHODS

This is a retrospective study for all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

During the 3-year follow up, 64/250 (25.6%) patients died: 20/106 (18.9%) with no CI, 29/104 (27.9%) with mild CI, and 15/40 (37.5%) with severe CI. Patients with CI were at increased risk for mortality (hazard ratio 1.82, p = 0.038). Those with severe CI had the worst outcome (hazard ratio 2.710, p = 0.011).

CONCLUSIONS

CI was an independent risk factor for mortality in patients with heart failure when controlling for age and markers of disease severity. Cognitive screening should be performed routinely to identify patients at greater risk for adverse outcomes.

One-year mortality of patients with ST-Elevation myocardial infarction: Prognostic impact of creatinine-based equations to estimate glomerular filtration rate

BACKGROUND

Renal dysfunction is associated with worse outcomes after primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). However, whether glomerular filtration rate (GFR) estimated with various equations can equally predict outcomes after ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction (STEMI) is still debated.

METHODS

We compared the clinical impact of 3 different creatinine-based equations (Cockcroft and Gault (CG), CKD-epidemiology (CKD-EPI) and Full Age Spectrum (FAS)) to predict 1-year mortality in STEMI patients.

RESULTS

Among 1755 consecutive STEMI patients who had undergone primary PCI included between 2006 and 2011, median estimated GFR was 79 (61;96) with the CG, 81 (65;95) with CKD-EPI and 75 (60;91) mL/min/1.73 m2 with FAS equation. Reduced GFR values were independently associated with 1-year mortality risk with the 3 equations. Receiver operating curves (ROC) of CG and FAS equations were significantly superior to the CKD-EPI equation, p = 0.03 and p = 0.01, respectively. Better prediction with FAS and CG equations was confirmed by net reclassification index.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that in STEMI patients who have undergone primary PCI, 1-year mortality is better predicted by CG or FAS equations compared to CKD-EPI.

Renal function and acute heart failure outcome

The interaction between acute heart failure (AHF) and renal dysfunction is complex. Several studies have evaluated the prognostic value of this syndrome. The aim of this systematic review, which includes non-selected samples, was to investigate the impact of different renal function variables on the AHF prognosis. The categories included in the studies reviewed included: creatinine, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), the BUN/creatinine quotient, chronic kidney disease, the formula to estimate the glomerular filtration rate, criteria of acute renal injury and new biomarkers of renal damage such as neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL and cystatin c). The basal alterations of the renal function, as well as the acute alterations, transient or not, are related to a worse prognosis in AHF, it is therefore necessary to always have baseline, acute and evolutive renal function parameters.

Perspective Review: Type 2 Diabetes and Readmission for Heart Failure

Heart failure is a leading cause for hospitalisation and for readmission, especially in patients over the age of 65. Diabetes is an increasingly common companion to heart failure. The presence of diabetes and its associated comorbidity increases the risk of adverse outcomes and premature mortality in patients with heart failure. In particular, patients with diabetes are more likely to be readmitted to hospital soon after discharge. This may partly reflect the greater severity of heart disease in these patients. In addition, agents that reduce the chances of readmission such as β-blockers, renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system blockers, and mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists are underutilised because of the perceived increased risks of adverse drug reactions and other limitations. In some cases, readmission to hospital is precipitated by acute decompensation of heart failure (re-exacerbation) leading to pulmonary congestion and/or refractory oedema. However, it appears that for most of the patients admitted and then discharged with a primary diagnosis of heart failure, most readmissions are not due to heart failure, but rather due to comorbidity including arrhythmia, infection, adverse drug reactions, and renal impairment/reduced hydration. All of these are more common in patients who also have diabetes, and all may be partly preventable. The many different reasons for readmission underline the critical value of multidisciplinary comprehensive care in patients admitted with heart failure, especially those with diabetes. A number of new strategies are also being developed to address this area of need, including the use of SGLT2 inhibitors, novel nonsteroidal mineralocorticoid antagonists, and neprilysin inhibitors.

Hyponatraemia, hyperglycaemia and worsening renal function at first blood sample on emergency department admission as predictors of in-hospital death in patients with dyspnoea with suspected acute heart failure: retrospective observational analysis of the PARADISE cohort

OBJECTIVES

To assess the prognostic value of hyponatraemia, hyperglycaemia and impaired estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in predicting in-hospital death in patients with acute heart failure (AHF) admitted for acute dyspnoea in the emergency department.

DESIGN

Retrospective observational study.

SETTING

Emergency Department of the University Hospital of Nancy. Data were collected from August 2013 to October 2015.

PARTICIPANTS

The analysis included 405 patients with AHF admitted for acute dyspnoea in an emergency department.

RESULTS

The population was elderly (mean age 82 years), 20.1% had hyponatraemia, 45.1% had hyperglycaemia and 48.6% had eGFR <50 mL/min/1.73 m². Sixty-one patients (15.1%) died in hospital, mostly due to cardiac aetiology (58.3%). In multivariable analysis adjusted for key potential confounders, adjusted hyponatraemia (OR=2.40, (1.16 to 4.98), p=0.02), hyperglycaemia (OR=2.00, 1.06 to 3.76, p=0.03) and eGFR <50 mL/min/1.73 m² (OR=1.97 (1.00 to 3.80), p=0.04*) were all identified as significant independent predictors of in-hospital death.

CONCLUSIONS

Results of basic routine laboratory tests (hyponatraemia, hyperglycaemia and impaired eGFR) performed on admission in the emergency department are independently associated with in-hospital death. These inexpensive tests, performed as early as patient admission in the emergency department, could allow the early identification of patients admitted for AHF who are at high risk of in-hospital death.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT02800122.

Clinical characteristics and one-year mortality according to admission renal function in patients with a first acute heart failure hospitalization

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

Chronic kidney disease is related to poor outcomes in patients with heart failure (HF). Few studies have assessed whether renal function influences one-year mortality risk in patients admitted for the first time for acute HF.

METHODS

We reviewed the medical records of all patients aged >50 years admitted within a two-year period for a first episode of decompensated HF. The sample was divided according to the patients' estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) on admission into three groups (eGFR >60, 30-60 and <30 ml/min/1.73 m²). Index admission and one-year all-cause mortality rates were compared between groups using Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 985 patients were included in the study, mean age 78.4±9 years, and with mean admission eGFR of 60.5±26 ml/min/1.73 m². Of these, 516 (52.3%) patients had eGFR <60 ml/min/1.73 m². One-year all-cause mortality was 25.4%, with a significant association between worse eGFR category and mortality (p<0.0001). Cox regression analysis assessing eGFR as a categorical variable confirmed this association (HR 1.378; p=0.030), together with older age (HR 1.066; p<0.001), previous diagnosis of hypertension (HR 0.527; p<0.001), and both lower systolic blood pressure (HR 0.993; p=0.009) and higher serum potassium on admission (HR 1.471; p <0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Renal impairment is common in HF patients, even at the time of first admission. In this group of HF patients the presence of renal impairment was associated with higher mid-term (one-year) mortality risk.

A Risk Prediction Model for In-hospital Mortality in Patients with Suspected Myocarditis

Background:

Myocarditis is an inflammatory disease of the myocardium that may lead to cardiac death in some patients. However, little is known about the predictors of in-hospital mortality in patients with suspected myocarditis. Thus, the aim of this study was to identify the independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality in patients with suspected myocarditis by establishing a risk prediction model.

Methods:

A retrospective study was performed to analyze the clinical medical records of 403 consecutive patients with suspected myocarditis who were admitted to Ningbo First Hospital between January 2003 and December 2013. A total of 238 males (59%) and 165 females (41%) were enrolled in this study. We divided the above patients into two subgroups (survival and nonsurvival), according to their clinical in-hospital outcomes. To maximize the effectiveness of the prediction model, we first identified the potential risk factors for in-hospital mortality among patients with suspected myocarditis, based on data pertaining to previously established risk factors and basic patient characteristics. We subsequently established a regression model for predicting in-hospital mortality using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Finally, we identified the independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality using our risk prediction model.

Results:

The following prediction model for in-hospital mortality in patients with suspected myocarditis, including creatinine clearance rate (Ccr), age, ventricular tachycardia (VT), New York Heart Association (NYHA) classification, gender and cardiac troponin T (cTnT), was established in the study: P = e^a/(1 + e^a) (where e is the exponential function, P is the probability of in-hospital death, and a = −7.34 + 2.99 × [Ccr <60 ml/min = 1, Ccr ≥60 ml/min = 0] + 2.01 × [age ≥50 years = 1, age <50 years = 0] + 1.93 × [VT = 1, no VT = 0] + 1.39 × [NYHA ≥3 = 1, NYHA <3 = 0] + 1.25 × [male = 1, female = 0] + 1.13 × [cTnT ≥50 μg/L = 1, cTnT <50 μg/L = 0]). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.96 (standard error = 0.015, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.93-0.99). The model demonstrated that a Ccr <60 ml/min (odds ratio [OR] = 19.94, 95% CI: 5.66–70.26), an age ≥50 years (OR = 7.43, 95% CI: 2.18–25.34), VT (OR = 6.89, 95% CI: 1.86–25.44), a NYHA classification ≥3 (OR = 4.03, 95% CI: 1.13–14.32), male gender (OR = 3.48, 95% CI: 0.99–12.20), and a cTnT level ≥50 μg/L (OR = 3.10, 95% CI: 0.91–10.62) were the independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality.

Conclusions:

A Ccr <60 ml/min, an age ≥50 years, VT, an NYHA classification ≥3, male gender, and a cTnT level ≥50 μg/L were the independent risk factors resulting from the prediction model for in-hospital mortality in patients with suspected myocarditis. In addition, sufficient life support during the early stage of the disease might improve the prognoses of patients with suspected myocarditis with multiple risk factors for in-hospital mortality.

Utility of models to predict 28-day or 30-day unplanned hospital readmissions: an updated systematic review

OBJECTIVE

To update previous systematic review of predictive models for 28-day or 30-day unplanned hospital readmissions.

DESIGN

Systematic review.

SETTING/DATA SOURCE

CINAHL, Embase, MEDLINE from 2011 to 2015.

PARTICIPANTS

All studies of 28-day and 30-day readmission predictive model.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Characteristics of the included studies, performance of the identified predictive models and key predictive variables included in the models.

RESULTS

Of 7310 records, a total of 60 studies with 73 unique predictive models met the inclusion criteria. The utilisation outcome of the models included all-cause readmissions, cardiovascular disease including pneumonia, medical conditions, surgical conditions and mental health condition-related readmissions. Overall, a wide-range C-statistic was reported in 56/60 studies (0.21-0.88). 11 of 13 predictive models for medical condition-related readmissions were found to have consistent moderate discrimination ability (C-statistic ≥0.7). Only two models were designed for the potentially preventable/avoidable readmissions and had C-statistic >0.8. The variables 'comorbidities', 'length of stay' and 'previous admissions' were frequently cited across 73 models. The variables 'laboratory tests' and 'medication' had more weight in the models for cardiovascular disease and medical condition-related readmissions.

CONCLUSIONS

The predictive models which focused on general medical condition-related unplanned hospital readmissions reported moderate discriminative ability. Two models for potentially preventable/avoidable readmissions showed high discriminative ability. This updated systematic review, however, found inconsistent performance across the included unique 73 risk predictive models. It is critical to define clearly the utilisation outcomes and the type of accessible data source before the selection of the predictive model. Rigorous validation of the predictive models with moderate-to-high discriminative ability is essential, especially for the two models for the potentially preventable/avoidable readmissions. Given the limited available evidence, the development of a predictive model specifically for paediatric 28-day all-cause, unplanned hospital readmissions is a high priority.

Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate: Fit for What Purpose?

There is important nosologic utility in staging chronic kidney disease (CKD) based on estimates of glomerular filtration rate (GFR). These equations have been optimized for estimating GFR at a single point in time. Risk assessment models used for prognosis of specified outcome events have commonly incorporated estimated GFR (eGFR), but the validity of this approach has not been evaluated. The current objective is to evaluate the risk of all-cause mortality over a 10-year follow-up period with multivariable-adjusted Cox regression analysis, comparing CKD stages based on eGFR to Cockcroft-Gault estimated creatinine clearance (eCrCl). There were significant differences between Stage 3A and Stage 3B-5 hazard ratios for all-cause mortality (p = 0.003) using eCrCl categories, but not for the same eGFR categories (p = 0.241). Discrimination analysis showed that a clinically significant difference (relative integrated discrimination improvement 778.6%; p = 0.001) was observed between the 2 models for the age strata ≤64. While eGFR is more precise and accurate than the Cockcroft Gault equation for estimating measured GFR at a single point in time, eGFR does not perform as well as eCrCl for assessing risk of all-cause mortality over 10-year follow-up intervals.