Parameters of the Lyman Model for Calculation of Normal-Tissue Complication Probability: A Systematic Literature Review

Estimating the risk of major adverse cardiac events following radiotherapy for left breast cancer using a modified generalized Lyman normal-tissue complication probability model

BACKGROUND

We introduced an adapted Lyman normal-tissue complication probability (NTCP) model, incorporating clinical risk factors and censored time-to-event data, to estimate the risk of major adverse cardiac events (MACE) following left breast cancer radiotherapy (RT).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Clinical characteristics and MACE data of 1100 women with left-side breast cancer receiving postoperative RT from 2005 to 2017 were retrospectively collected. A modified generalized Lyman NTCP model based on the individual left ventricle (LV) equivalent uniform dose (EUD), accounting for clinical risk factors and censored data, was developed using maximum likelihood estimation. Subgroup analysis was performed for low-comorbidity and high-comorbidity groups.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up 7.8 years, 64 patients experienced MACE, with higher mean LV dose in affected individuals (4.1 Gy vs. 2.9 Gy). The full model accounting for clinical factors identified D50 = 43.3 Gy, m = 0.59, and n = 0.78 as the best-fit parameters. The threshold dose causing a 50 % probability of MACE was lower in the high-comorbidity group (D50 = 30 Gy) compared to the low-comorbidity group (D50 = 45 Gy). Predictions indicated that restricting LV EUD below 5 Gy yielded a 10-year relative MACE risk less than 1.3 and 1.5 for high-comorbidity and low-comorbidity groups, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Patients with comorbidities are more susceptible to cardiac events following breast RT. The proposed modified generalized Lyman model considers nondosimetric risk factors and addresses incomplete follow-up for late complications, offering comprehensive and individualized MACE risk estimates post-RT.

A novel predictor for dosimetry data of lung and the radiation pneumonitis incidence prior to SBRT in lung cancer patients

Normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models for radiation pneumonitis (RP) in lung cancer patients with stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT), which based on dosimetric data from treatment planning, are limited to patients who have already received radiation therapy (RT). This study aims to identify a novel predictive factor for lung dose distribution and RP probability before devising actionable SBRT plans for lung cancer patients. A comprehensive correlation analysis was performed on the clinical and dose parameters of lung cancer patients who underwent SBRT. Linear regression models were utilized to analyze the dosimetric data of lungs. The performance of the regression models was evaluated using mean squared error (MSE) and the coefficient of determination (R2). Correlational analysis revealed that most clinical data exhibited weak correlations with dosimetric data. However, nearly all dosimetric variables showed "strong" or "very strong" correlations with each other, particularly concerning the mean dose of the ipsilateral lung (MI) and the other dosimetric parameters. Further study verified that the lung tumor ratio (LTR) was a significant predictor for MI, which could predict the incidence of RP. As a result, LTR can predict the probability of RP without the need to design an elaborate treatment plan. This study, as the first to offer a comprehensive correlation analysis of dose parameters, explored the specific relationships among them. Significantly, it identified LTR as a novel predictor for both dose parameters and the incidence of RP, without the need to design an elaborate treatment plan.

Predictive modelling for late rectal and urinary toxicities after prostate radiotherapy using planned and delivered dose

Background and purpose

Normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) parameters derived from traditional 3D plans may not be ideal in defining toxicity outcomes for modern radiotherapy techniques. This study aimed to derive parameters of the Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB) NTCP model using prospectively scored clinical data for late gastrointestinal (GI) and genitourinary (GU) toxicities for high-risk prostate cancer patients treated using volumetric-modulated-arc-therapy (VMAT). Dose-volume-histograms (DVH) extracted from planned (D_P) and accumulated dose (D_A) were used.

Material and methods

D_P and D_A obtained from the DVH of 150 prostate cancer patients with pelvic-lymph-nodes irradiation treated using VMAT were used to generate LKB-NTCP parameters using maximum likelihood estimations. Defined GI and GU toxicities were recorded up to 3-years post RT follow-up. Model performance was measured using Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test and the mean area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC). Bootstrapping method was used for internal validation.

Results

For mild-severe (Grade ≥1) GI toxicity, the model generated similar parameters based on D_A and D_P DVH data (D_A-D₅₀:71.6 Gy vs D_P-D₅₀:73.4; D_A-m:0.17 vs D_P-m:0.19 and D_A/P-n 0.04). The 95% CI for D_A-D₅₀ was narrower and achieved an AUC of >0.6. For moderate-severe (Grade ≥2) GI toxicity, D_A-D₅₀ parameter was higher and had a narrower 95% CI (D_A-D₅₀:77.9 Gy, 95% CI:76.4-79.6 Gy vs D_P-D₅₀:74.6, 95% CI:69.1-85.4 Gy) with good model performance (AUC>0.7). For Grade ≥1 late GU toxicity, D₅₀ and n parameters for D_A and D_P were similar (D_A-D₅₀: 58.8 Gy vs D_P-D₅₀: 59.5 Gy; D_A-n: 0.21 vs D_P-n: 0.19) with a low AUC of<0.6. For Grade ≥2 late GU toxicity, similar NTCP parameters were attained from D_A and D_P DVH data (D_A-D₅₀:81.7 Gy vs D_P-D₅₀:81.9 Gy; D_A-n:0.12 vs D_P-n:0.14) with an acceptable AUCs of >0.6.

Conclusions

The achieved NTCP parameters using modern RT techniques and accounting for organ motion differs from QUANTEC reported parameters. D_A-D₅₀ of 77.9 Gy for GI and D_A/D_P-D₅₀ of 81.7-81.9 Gy for GU demonstrated good predictability in determining the risk of Grade ≥2 toxicities especially for GI derived D₅₀ and are recommended to incorporate as part of the DV planning constraints to guide dose escalation strategies while minimising the risk of toxicity.