Epidemiology and genetic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in Africa

Evolutionary and spatiotemporal analyses reveal multiple introductions and cryptic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 VOC/VOI in Malta

IMPORTANCE

Our study provides insights into the evolution of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in Malta, a highly connected and understudied country. We combined epidemiological and phylodynamic analyses to analyze trends in the number of new cases, deaths, tests, positivity rates, and evolutionary and dispersal patterns from August 2020 to January 2022. Our reconstructions inferred 173 independent severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 introductions into Malta from various global regions. Our study demonstrates that characterizing epidemiological trends coupled with phylodynamic modeling can inform the implementation of public health interventions to help control COVID-19 transmission in the community.

Rural populations facilitated early SARS-CoV-2 evolution and transmission in Missouri, USA

In the United States, rural populations comprise 60 million individuals and suffered from high COVID-19 disease burdens. Despite this, surveillance efforts are biased toward urban centers. Consequently, how rurally circulating SARS-CoV-2 viruses contribute toward emerging variants remains poorly understood. In this study, we aim to investigate the role of rural communities in the evolution and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 during the early pandemic. We collected 544 urban and 435 rural COVID-19-positive respiratory specimens from an overall vaccine-naïve population in Southwest Missouri between July and December 2020. Genomic analyses revealed 53 SARS-CoV-2 Pango lineages in our study samples, with 14 of these lineages identified only in rural samples. Phylodynamic analyses showed that frequent bi-directional diffusions occurred between rural and urban communities in Southwest Missouri, and that four out of seven Missouri rural-origin lineages spread globally. Further analyses revealed that the nucleocapsid protein (N):R203K/G204R paired substitutions, which were detected disproportionately across multiple Pango lineages, were more associated with urban than rural sequences. Positive selection was detected at N:204 among rural samples but was not evident in urban samples, suggesting that viruses may encounter distinct selection pressures in rural versus urban communities. This study demonstrates that rural communities may be a crucial source of SARS-CoV-2 evolution and transmission, highlighting the need to expand surveillance and resources to rural populations for COVID-19 mitigation.

Optimizing ancestral trait reconstruction of large HIV Subtype C datasets through multiple-trait subsampling

Large datasets along with sampling bias represent a challenge for phylodynamic reconstructions, particularly when the study data are obtained from various heterogeneous sources and/or through convenience sampling. In this study, we evaluate the presence of unbalanced sampled distribution by collection date, location, and risk group of human immunodeficiency virus Type 1 Subtype C using a comprehensive subsampling strategy and assess their impact on the reconstruction of the viral spatial and risk group dynamics using phylogenetic comparative methods. Our study shows that a most suitable dataset for ancestral trait reconstruction can be obtained through subsampling by all available traits, particularly using multigene datasets. We also demonstrate that sampling bias is inflated when considerable information for a given trait is unavailable or of poor quality, as we observed for the trait risk group. In conclusion, we suggest that, even if traits are not well recorded, including them deliberately optimizes the representativeness of the original dataset rather than completely excluding them. Therefore, we advise the inclusion of as many traits as possible with the aid of subsampling approaches in order to optimize the dataset for phylodynamic analysis while reducing the computational burden. This will benefit research communities investigating the evolutionary and spatio-temporal patterns of infectious diseases.

Characterization of intrinsic and effective fitness changes caused by temporarily fixed mutations in the SARS-CoV-2 spike E484 epitope and identification of an epistatic precondition for the evolution of E484A in variant Omicron

BACKGROUND

Intrinsic fitness costs are likely to have guided the selection of lineage-determining mutations during emergence of variants of SARS-CoV-2. Whereas changes in receptor affinity and antibody neutralization have been thoroughly mapped for individual mutations in spike, their influence on intrinsic replicative fitness remains understudied.

METHODS

We analyzed mutations in immunodominant spike epitope E484 that became temporarily fixed over the pandemic. We engineered the resulting immune escape mutations E484K, -A, and -Q in recombinant SARS-CoV-2. We characterized viral replication, entry, and competitive fitness with and without immune serum from humans with defined exposure/vaccination history and hamsters monospecifically infected with the E484K variant. We additionally engineered a virus containing the Omicron signature mutations N501Y and Q498R that were predicted to epistatically enhance receptor binding.

RESULTS

Multistep growth kinetics in Vero-, Calu-3, and NCI-H1299 were identical between viruses. Synchronized entry experiments based on cold absorption and temperature shift identified only an insignificant trend toward faster entry of the E484K variant. Competitive passage experiments revealed clear replicative fitness differences. In absence of immune serum, E484A and E484Q, but not E484K, were replaced by wildtype (WT) in competition assays. In presence of immune serum, all three mutants outcompeted WT. Decreased E484A fitness levels were over-compensated for by N501Y and Q498R, identifying a putative Omicron founder background that exceeds the intrinsic and effective fitness of WT and matches that of E484K. Critically, the E484A/Q498R/N501Y mutant and E484K have equal fitness also in presence of pre-Omicron vaccinee serum, whereas the fitness gain by E484K is lost in the presence of serum raised against the E484K variant in hamsters.

CONCLUSIONS

The emergence of E484A and E484Q prior to widespread population immunity may have been limited by fitness costs. In populations already exposed to the early immune escape epitope E484K, the Omicron founder background may have provided a basis for alternative immune escape evolution via E484A. Studies of major antigenic epitope changes with and without their epistatic context help reconstruct the sequential adjustments of intrinsic fitness versus neutralization escape during the evolution of major SARS-CoV-2 variants in an increasingly immune human population.