Reverse Epidemiology of Traditional Cardiovascular Risk Factors in the Geriatric Population

The impact of quality of life on the survival of elderly patients with end-stage renal disease: a prospective multicenter cohort study in Korea

Background

Quality of life (QOL) is associated with mortality in dialysis patients. However, the impact of QOL index or score on elderly patients undergoing maintenance dialysis is unclear. We analyzed the relationship between QOL domains and survival in elderly end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients on dialysis.

Methods

We included 492 incident ESRD patients aged ≥65 years from a Korean nationwide prospective cohort study who were assessed for QOL with a follow-up duration of 67.3 ± 34.6 months after dialysis initiation. Their QOL was evaluated using the Kidney Disease Quality of Life (KDQOL) instrument, and the effect of each QOL domain on mortality was analyzed. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was performed to identify independent risk factors for death after adjusting for confounding factors.

Results

Low physical component summary (PCS) and Short Form-36 score were significantly associated with low survival rate (P < .001 and P = .017, respectively), whereas the mental component summary and ESRD-targeted item scores were not correlated with survival rate. Multivariable Cox regression analysis confirmed that only a high PCS score was associated with better survival (hazard ratio 0.71; 95% confidence interval 0.52-0.97; P = .031). Linear regression analysis revealed that age, sex, modified Charlson comorbidity index, albumin and intact parathyroid hormone were associated with PCS. Among the PCS items, only the physical functioning score was significantly associated with mortality (P = .017).

Conclusion

PCS was an independent risk factor for death in elderly ESRD patients. A higher physical functioning score was associated with a better outcome, suggesting the importance of physical condition in elderly dialysis patients.

Effects of malnutrition on disease severity and adverse outcomes in idiopathic pulmonary arterial hypertension: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Malnutrition is common in patients with chronic cardiovascular disease and is associated with significantly higher all-cause mortality. Approximately one-third of patients with heart failure are malnourished. However, the relationship between malnutrition and idiopathic pulmonary arterial hypertension (IPAH) remains unclear. This study aimed to clarify the prognostic value of malnutrition in patients with IPAH.

METHODS

A total of 432 consecutive participants with IPAH were included in this study between March 2013 and August 2021. Three common malnutrition assessment tools, including the geriatric nutritional risk index (GNRI), prognostic nutritional index (PNI), and controlling nutritional status (CONUT) score, were used to evaluate the nutritional status of patients with IPAH. The relationships between the malnutrition tools and long-term adverse outcomes were determined using restricted cubic splines and multivariate Cox regression models.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up of 3.1 years, 158 participants experienced clinical worsening or all-cause death. Patients were stratified into the low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups based on the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) risk stratification, and the PNI (55.9 ± 5.7 vs. 54.4 ± 7.2 vs. 51.1 ± 7.1, P = 0.005) and CONUT score (2.1 ± 0.9 vs. 2.5 ± 1.2 vs. 3.3 ± 1.1, P < 0.001) identified these patient groups better than the GNRI. All three malnutrition tools were associated with well-validated variables that reflected IPAH severity, such as the World Health Organization functional class, 6-min walk distance, and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide level. The CONUT score exhibited better predictive ability than both the GNRI (ΔAUC = 0.059, P < 0.001) and PNI (ΔAUC = 0.095, P < 0.001) for adverse outcomes and significantly improved reclassification and discrimination beyond the ESC risk score. Multivariable Cox regression analysis indicated that only the CONUT score (hazard ratio = 1.363, 95% confidence interval 1.147, 1.619 per 1.0-standard deviation increment, P < 0.001) independently predicted adverse outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

The malnutrition status was associated with disease severity in patients with IPAH. The CONUT score provided additional information regarding the risk of clinically worsening events, making it a meaningful risk stratification tool for these patients.

Aspirin in Primary Prevention: Looking for Those Who Enjoy It

Based on a wealth of evidence, aspirin is one of the cornerstones of secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease. However, despite several studies showing efficacy also in primary prevention, an unopposed excess risk of bleeding leading to a very thin safety margin is evident in subjects without a clear acute cardiovascular event. Overall, the variability in recommendations from different scientific societies for aspirin use in primary prevention is a classic example of failure of simple risk stratification models based on competing risks (atherothrombosis vs. bleeding), perceived to be opposed but intertwined at the pathophysiological level. Notably, cardiovascular risk is dynamic in nature and cannot be accurately captured by scores, which do not always consider risk enhancers. Furthermore, the widespread use of other potent medications in primary prevention, such as lipid-lowering and anti-hypertensive drugs, might be reducing the benefit of aspirin in recent trials. Some authors, drawing from specific pathophysiological data, have suggested that specific subgroups might benefit more from aspirin. This includes patients with diabetes and those with obesity; sex-based differences are considered as well. Moreover, molecular analysis of platelet reactivity has been proposed. A beneficial effect of aspirin has also been demonstrated for the prevention of cancer, especially colorectal. This review explores evidence and controversies concerning the use of aspirin in primary prevention, considering new perspectives in order to provide a comprehensive individualized approach.

Relationships of Weight Change from 20 Years of Age with the Risks of All-Cause and Cardiovascular Mortality in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease

AIMS

Weight changes from a young age are known to be associated with poor life outcomes in the general population. However, little is known about the association between weight change from a young age and life expectancy in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD).

METHODS

Data of 2,806 nondialysis CKD patients who participated in the Fukuoka Kidney Disease Registry (FKR) Study, a multicenter observational study, were analyzed. The primary outcome was all-cause death, whereas the secondary outcome was cardiovascular mortality. The covariate of interest was weight change, defined as the difference between body weight at study enrollment and at 20 years old. Cox proportional-hazards models were used to estimate the risks of mortality for participants with weight changes of ≥ 5 or ＜5 kg compared with those with stable weights.

RESULTS

During the 5-year observation period, 243 participants died from all causes and 62 from cardiovascular disease. The risk of all-cause mortality in the weight-loss group was significantly higher than that in the stable-weight group (multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio, 2.11; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.52-2.93). Conversely, the risk of cardiovascular mortality in the weight-loss group was significantly higher than that in the stable-weight group (multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio, 2.48; 95% CI, 1.32-4.64). However, no significant association was observed between weight gain and the risks of all-cause and cardiovascular mortalities.

CONCLUSION

Weight loss from 20 years of age was found to be associated with higher risks of all-cause and cardiovascular mortalities in patients with CKD.

The Effects of Pharmacological Urate-Lowering Therapy on Cardiovascular Disease in Older Adults with Gout

Cardiovascular disease is an important cause of mortality in older patients. In addition to the traditional risk factors for cardiovascular disease, hyperuricemia has been increasingly associated with an elevated risk of cardiovascular disease. Uric acid itself has several unfavorable effects on the cardiovascular system, and hyperuricemia can lead to the development of gout. Gout is the most prevalent inflammatory rheumatic disease. Older patients with gout have an increased risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality due to an increased prevalence of traditional risk factors, as well as the inflammatory burden of gout activity. As the prevalence of traditional risk factors and the prevalence of both hyperuricemia and gout are increasing in older adults, cardiovascular risk management in these patients is very important. This risk management consists of, on the one hand, treatment of individual traditional risk factors and, on the other hand, of urate lowering, thereby decreasing inflammatory burden of gout. However, there is insufficient evidence to conclude that urate-lowering therapy reduces the risk of cardiovascular events. Moreover, from a cardiovascular point of view, there is no preference for one urate lowering drug over another in patients with gout, nor is there enough evidence to support a preference in patients with gout with increased cardiovascular risk. Personalized treatment in older patients with gout should be aimed at optimizing serum uric acid levels, as well as targeting traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Further prospective randomized trials are needed to support the hypothesis that urate lowering reduces cardiovascular risk in older patients with gout.

Coronary events in elderly patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation: a prespecified sub-analysis of the ANAFIE registry

Real-world data on coronary events (CE) in elderly patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) are lacking in the direct oral anticoagulant era. This prespecified sub-analysis of the ANAFIE Registry, a prospective observational study in > 30,000 Japanese patients aged ≥ 75 years with non-valvular AF (NVAF), investigated CE incidence and risk factors. The incidence and risk factors for new-onset CE (a composite of myocardial infarction [MI] and cardiac intervention for coronary heart diseases other than MI), MI, and cardiac intervention for coronary heart diseases other than MI during the 2-year follow-up were assessed. Bleeding events in CE patients were also examined. Among 32,275 patients, the incidence rate per 100 patient-years was 0.48 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.42-0.53) for CE during the 2-year follow-up, 0.20 (0.16-0.23) for MI, and 0.29 (0.25-0.33) for cardiac intervention for coronary heart diseases other than MI; that of stroke/systemic embolism was 1.62 (1.52-1.73). Patients with CE (n = 287) likely had lower creatinine clearance (CrCL) and higher CHADS2 and HAS-BLED scores than patients without CE (n = 31,988). Significant risk factors associated with new-onset CE were male sex, systolic blood pressure of ≥ 130 mmHg, diabetes mellitus (glycated hemoglobin ≥ 6.0%), CE history, antiplatelet agent use, and CrCL < 50 mL/min. Major bleeding incidence was significantly higher in patients with new-onset CE vs without CE (odds ratio [95% CI], 3.35 [2.06-5.43]). In elderly patients with NVAF, CE incidence was lower than stroke/systemic embolism incidence. New-onset CE (vs no CE) was associated with a higher incidence of major bleeding.Trial registration: UMIN000024006.

The association of low serum uric acid with mortality in older people is modified by kidney function: National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 1999-2018

BACKGROUND

In older individuals, the role of low serum uric acid (SUA) as risk factor for mortality is debated. We therefore studied whether SUA levels, particularly low SUA concentrations, are associated with all-cause and cardiovascular (CV) mortality in older population, and to clarify potential effect modification of kidney function.

METHODS

We identified 14,005 older people in National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data from 1999 to 2018. SUA was measured only at baseline. The relationship between SUA and mortality was assessed using Cox proportional hazards models and restricted cubic spline Cox regression stratified by the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR).

RESULTS

During mean 8.3 years of follow-up, 4852 all-cause death and 1602 CV death were recorded. A significant U-shaped association was observed between SUA with all-cause mortality, with the lowest risk concentration of 5.5 mg/dL. Comparing to the reference group (5 to 7 mg/dL), the HR of 2 to < 5 mg/dL group was 1.11 (1.03-1.21) and 1.14 (1.00-1.30). This relationship was more pronounced in participants with an eGFR ≥ 60 ml/min/1.73m2 (HR, 1.16; 95%CI, 1.06-1.28). This situation similarly occurred in Urine protein negative group (HR, 1.14; 95%CI, 1.04-1.25).

CONCLUSIONS

Low SUA concentrations are associated with an increased risk in all-cause and CV mortality among older participants. Extremely low SUA concentrations are especially undesirable, especially in the older adults with normal kidney function.

Remnant cholesterol predicts cardiovascular mortality beyond low-density lipoprotein cholesterol in patients with peritoneal dialysis

BACKGROUND

Patients undergoing peritoneal dialysis (PD) are prone to dyslipidemia. However, studies concerning remnant cholesterol (RC) in such patients are limited.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to investigate the association between RC and cardiovascular (CV) mortality in patients on PD.

METHODS

Patients who initiated PD at our center (2006-2018) were retrospectively enrolled. Adjusted Cox models were used to evaluate the independent association between baseline RC levels and CV mortality. We classified patients into 4 concordant/discordant categories according to their baseline lipid profiles. Cox models were then used to determine the association between different low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and RC levels and CV mortality risk.

RESULTS

The study enrolled 2333 individuals, with a mean RC of 33.4 mg/dL. RC levels were positively associated with CV mortality risk independent of LDL-C in patients on PD (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.05; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1. 00-1.10). In the concordant/discordant categories, patients with high LDL-C and RC levels had a higher CV mortality risk (HR: 1.52; 95% CI: 1.01-2.28) than those with low LDL-C and RC levels in the entire cohort. Moreover, in older patients, a higher RC level increased CV mortality risk regardless of the LDL-C level (HR: 2.41, 95% CI: 1.22-4.74; HR: 2.15, 95% CI: 1.12-4.14).

CONCLUSIONS

RC levels are elevated in patients on PD and can predict CV mortality beyond LDL-C levels. RC levels should be considered alongside LDL-C levels when assessing prognostic lipid levels in these patients. More attention should be given to RC than to LDL-C in older patients undergoing PD.

The role of skeletal muscle mass on cardiovascular disease risk: an emerging role on modulating lipid profile

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The purpose of this review was to present updated evidence on the role of skeletal muscle mass on cardiometabolic health.

RECENT FINDINGS

Increased lean, and especially skeletal, muscle mass has been associated with better cardiometabolic health in various epidemiological studies, even in younger age groups. In addition, the link between skeletal muscle mass and adult lipid profile is of interest. A preliminary analysis using the data from the ATTICA prospective cohort study (2002-2022) supports this association.

SUMMARY

Skeletal muscle mass has many metabolic functions (i.e., glucose, insulin and protein metabolism, mitochondrial function, arterial stiffness, inflammation, oxidative stress, brain function, hormone status). Given its associations with the lipid profile and overall cardiometabolic risk, skeletal muscle mass stands among the emerging risk factors for cardiovascular diseases. In addition to only using body mass index or fat distribution, more studies should evaluate lean mass and its prognostic and predictive ability regarding chronic diseases.

Prognostic Role of Polyvascular Involvement in Patients with Symptomatic Peripheral Artery Disease

Background: Statin therapy is recommended for patients with peripheral artery disease (PAD). However, PAD patients with polyvascular (PV) extent remain threatened by an increased residual cardiovascular (CV) risk. Purpose: To investigate the association of prescribed statin therapy and mortality in PAD patients with or without PV extent. Methods: A single-center retrospective longitudinal observational study originating from a consecutive registry with 1380 symptomatic PAD patients over a mean observational time of 60 ± 32 months. The association of atherosclerotic extent and statin use (PAD, plus one additional region (CAD or CeVD, [+1 V]), +2 vascular regions (+CAD and CeVD [+2 V]) with the risk of all-cause mortality was evaluated using Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for potential confounding factors. Results: The mean age of the study's participants was 72.0 ± 11.7 years, with 36% being female. PAD patients with PV extent [+1 V] and [+2 V] were older and suffered from diabetes, hypertension, or dyslipidemia more often; they, too, had more severely impaired kidney function (all p < 0.0001) compared to patients with PAD only. PAD patients with PV [+1 V] and [+2 V] received better statin medication and reached the recommended LDL-C target compared to PAD-only patients (p < 0.001). Despite better statin treatment, the rate of all-cause mortality was higher in PV patients than in PAD-only patients (PAD only: 13%; [+1 V]: 22%; [+2 V]: 35%; p < 0.0001). Conclusion: PV patients receive better statin therapy than PAD-only patients but nevertheless still have higher mortality rates. Future studies are needed to explore whether more aggressive LDL-lowering treatment for PAD patients may be translated into better prognosis.

Body Mass Index Measured Repeatedly over 42 Years as a Risk Factor for Ischemic Stroke: The HUNT Study

BACKGROUND

Higher BMI in middle age is associated with ischemic stroke, but little is known about BMI over adulthood, and the risk for ischemic stroke as most studies relied on a single measurement of BMI.

METHODS

BMI was measured four times over a period of 42 years. We calculated average BMI values and group-based trajectory models and related these to the prospective risk of ischemic stroke after the last examination in Cox models with a follow-up time of 12 years.

RESULTS

A total of 14,139 participants, with a mean age of 65.2 years and 55.4% women, had information on BMI from all four examinations, and we observed 856 ischemic strokes. People with overweight and obesity over adulthood had a higher risk for ischemic stroke with a multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio of 1.29 (95% CI 1.11-1.48) and 1.27 (95% CI 0.96-1.67), respectively, when compared to normal weight participants. Excess weight tended to have stronger effects earlier than later in life. A trajectory of developing obesity throughout life was associated with higher risk than other trajectories.

CONCLUSIONS

High average BMI, especially at an early age, is a risk factor for ischemic stroke. Early weight control and long-term weight reduction for those with high BMI may decrease the later occurrence of ischemic stroke.

Comprehensive review: Frailty in pancreas transplant candidates and recipients

Well-selected patients with kidney disease and diabetes mellitus who undergo simultaneous kidney-pancreas transplantation often experience dramatic improvements in quality of life and long-term survival compared to those who remain on medical therapy. Over the past several years the importance of frailty in the pancreas transplant candidate and recipient populations has grown. More patients with advanced age have entered the waitlist, and complications from prolonged diabetes, even in younger patients, have created increased evidence of risk for frailty. Given these concerns, and the broad challenges facing pancreas transplantation volumes overall, we generated this review to help establish the impact and implications. We summarize the interplay of immunological factors, aging, environmental factors, diabetes mellitus, and chronic kidney disease that put these patients at risk for frailty. We discuss its measurement and recommend a combination of two instruments (both well-validated and one entirely objective). We describe the outcomes for patients before and after pancreas transplantation who may have frailty, and what interventions can be taken to mitigate its effects. Broader investigation into frailty in the pancreas transplant population is needed to better understand how to select patients for pancreas transplantation and to how manage its consequences thereafter.

Stroke risk in older British men: Comparing performance of stroke-specific and composite-CVD risk prediction tools

Stroke risk is currently estimated as part of the composite risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). We investigated if composite-CVD risk prediction tools QRISK3 and Pooled Cohort Equations-PCE, derived from middle-aged adults, are as good as stroke-specific Framingham Stroke Risk Profile-FSRP and QStroke for capturing the true risk of stroke in older adults. External validation for 10y stroke outcomes was performed in men (60-79y) of the British Regional Heart Study. Discrimination and calibration were assessed in separate validation samples (FSRP n = 3762, QStroke n = 3376, QRISK3 n = 2669 and PCE n = 3047) with/without adjustment for competing risks. Sensitivity/specificity were examined using observed and clinically recommended thresholds. Performance of FSRP, QStroke and QRISK3 was further compared head-to-head in 2441 men free of a range of CVD, including across age-groups. Observed 10y risk (/1000PY) ranged from 6.8 (hard strokes) to 11 (strokes/transient ischemic attacks). All tools discriminated weakly, C-indices 0.63-0.66. FSRP and QStroke overestimated risk at higher predicted probabilities. QRISK3 and PCE showed reasonable calibration overall with minor mis-estimations across the risk range. Performance worsened on adjusting for competing non-stroke deaths. However, in men without CVD, QRISK3 displayed relatively better calibration for stroke events, even after adjustment for competing deaths, including in oldest men. All tools displayed similar sensitivity (63-73 %) and specificity (52-54 %) using observed risks as cut-offs. When QRISK3 and PCE were evaluated using thresholds for CVD prevention, sensitivity for stroke events was 99 %, with false positive rate 97 % suggesting existing intervention thresholds may need to be re-examined to reflect age-related stroke burden.

Review on the management of cardiovascular risk factors in the elderly

Cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) are very prevalent in the elderly population and in addition to predisposing to cardiovascular disease they are related to functional decline, which limits the quality of life in this population. The objective of this work is to offer a review of the current evidence in the management of CVRF in the elderly population. The search strategy was executed in PubMed, Clinicalstrials.org and Embase, to search for clinical trials, observational cohort or cross-sectional studies, reviews, and clinical practice guidelines focused or including elderly population. The results provided were refined after reading the title and abstract, as well as elimination of duplicates, and were finally identified and assessed following the GRADE methodology. A total of 136 studies were obtained for all predefined risk factors, such as sedentary lifestyle, smoking, obesity and metabolic syndrome, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia and alcohol. We described the results of the studies identified and assessed according to their methodological quality in different recommendation sections: diagnostic and prevention, intervention, or treatment in the elderly population. As the main limitation to the results of this review, there is the lack of quality studies whose target population is elderly patients. This issue limits the recommendations that can be made in this population. Due to this reason, comprehensive geriatric assessment seems the best tool currently available to implement the most appropriate treatment plans based on the baseline situation and comorbidity of each elderly patient.

The association of uric acid with mortality modifies at old age: data from the uric acid right for heart health (URRAH) study

OBJECTIVES

In older individuals, the role of serum uric acid (SUA) as risk factor for mortality is debated. This study investigated the association of SUA with all-cause and cardiovascular (CV) mortality in older adults participating in the large multicentre observational uric acid right for heart health (URRAH) study.

METHODS

Eight thousand URRAH participants aged 65+ were included in the analysis. The predictive role of SUA was assessed using Cox regression models stratified according to the cut-off age of 75. SUA was tested as continuous and categorical variable (age-specific quartiles). The prognostic threshold of SUA for mortality was analysed using receiver operating characteristic curves.

RESULTS

Among participants aged 65-74, multivariate Cox regression analysis adjusted for CV risk factors and comorbidities identified an independent association of SUA with both all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1.169, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.107-1.235) and CV mortality (HR 1.146, 95% CI 1.064-1.235). The cut-off value of 4.8 mg/dl discriminated mortality status. In participants aged 75+, we observed a J-shaped relationship of SUA with all-cause and CV mortality, with risk increasing at extreme SUA levels.

CONCLUSIONS

These results confirmed the predictive role of SUA for all-cause and CV mortality in older adults, while revealing considerable age-related differences. Mortality risk increased at higher SUA levels in participants aged 65-74, with a prognostic threshold of 4.8 mg/dl. The relationship between SUA and mortality was J-shaped in oldest participants. Large interventional studies are needed to clarify the benefits and possible risks of urate-lowering treatments in older adults.

Association of Ratio of Apolipoprotein B to Apolipoprotein A1 With Survival in Peritoneal Dialysis

Background

Although the ratio of apolipoprotein B (apo B) to apolipoprotein A1 (apo A1) (apo B/apo A1) seems to be associated with mortality in hemodialysis (HD) patients, the association of apo B/apo A1 ratio with death remains not clear in peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients.

Aims

The study targets to examine the relationship of apo B/apo A1 ratio with survival in patients receiving PD treatment.

Methods

In this single-center prospective observational cohort study, we enrolled 1,616 patients receiving PD treatment with a median follow-up time of 47.6 months. We used a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model to examine the relationship between apo B/apo A1 ratio and cardiovascular (CV) and all-cause mortality. The association of apo B/apo A1 ratio with atherosclerotic and non-atherosclerotic CV mortality was further evaluated by competing risk regression models.

Results

During the follow-up, 508 (31.4%) patients died, 249 (49.0%) died from CV events, of which 149 (59.8%) were atherosclerotic CV mortality. In multivariable models, for 1-SD increase in apo B/apo A1 ratio level, the adjusted hazard ratios for CV and all-cause mortality were 1.26 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.07–1.47; P = 0.005] and 1.20 (95% CI, 1.07–1.35; P = 0.003), respectively. The adjusted subdistribution hazard ratios for atherosclerotic and non-atherosclerotic CV mortality were 1.43 (95% CI, 1.19–1.73; P &lt; 0.001) and 0.85 (95% CI, 0.64–1.13; P = 0.256), respectively. For quartile analysis, patients in quartile 4 had higher CV, all-cause, and atherosclerotic CV mortality compared with those in quartile 1. Moreover, apo B/apo A1 ratio had a diabetes-related difference in CV, all-cause, and atherosclerotic CV mortality.

Conclusion

Elevated apo B/apo A1 ratio level was significantly associated with CV, all-cause, and atherosclerotic CV mortality in patients undergoing PD. Moreover, the association was especially statistically significant in patients with diabetes.

Association of Systolic Blood Pressure With Dementia Risk and the Role of Age, U-Shaped Associations, and Mortality

IMPORTANCE

The optimal systolic blood pressure (SBP) to minimize the risk of dementia in older age is unknown.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether the association between SBP and dementia risk is U-shaped and whether age and comorbidity play a role in this association.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort study used an individual participant data approach to analyze 7 prospective, observational, population-based cohort studies that were designed to evaluate incident dementia in older adults. These studies started between 1987 and 2006 in Europe and the US. Participants had no dementia diagnosis and had SBP and/or diastolic blood pressure (BP) data at baseline and incident dementia status during follow-up. Data analysis was conducted from November 7, 2019, to October 3, 2021.

EXPOSURES

Baseline systolic BP.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

All-cause dementia (defined using Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders [Third Edition Revised] or Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders [Fourth Edition] and established at follow-up measurements or in clinical practice), mortality, and combined dementia and mortality were the outcomes. Covariates included baseline antihypertensive medication use, sex, educational level, body mass index, smoking status, diabetes, stroke history, myocardial infarction history, and polypharmacy. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used, and nonlinear associations were explored using natural splines.

RESULTS

The study analyzed 7 cohort studies with a total of 17 286 participants, among whom 10 393 were women (60.1%) and the mean (SD) baseline age was 74.5 (7.3) years. Overall, dementia risk was lower for individuals with higher SBP, with the lowest risk associated with an SBP of approximately 185 mm Hg (95% CI, 161-230 mm Hg; P = .001). Stratified by overlapping 10-year baseline age groups, the lowest dementia risk was observed at somewhat lower systolic BP levels in those older than 75 years (158 [95% CI, 152-178] mm Hg to 170 [95% CI, 160-260] mm Hg). For mortality, there was a clear U-shaped association, with the lowest risk at 160 mm Hg (95% CI, 154-181 mm Hg; P < .001). This U-shape occurred across all age groups, with the lowest dementia risk associated with an SBP of 134 mm Hg (95% CI, 102-149 mm Hg; P = .03) in those aged 60 to 70 years and increasing to between 155 mm Hg (95% CI, 150-166 mm Hg; P < .001) and 166 mm Hg (95% CI, 154-260 mm Hg; P = .02) for age groups between 70 and 95 years. Combined dementia and mortality risk curves closely resembled those for mortality. Associations of diastolic BP with dementia risk were generally similar but were less distinct.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This cohort study found that dementia risk was lower for older individuals with higher SBP levels and that more distinctly U-shaped associations appeared for those older than 75 years, but these associations cannot be explained by SBP-associated changes in mortality risk. The findings may warrant future trials on tailored BP management in older age groups that take life expectancy and health context into consideration.

Associations of Wellbeing Levels, Changes, and Within-Person Variability With Late-Life All-Cause Mortality Across 12 Years: Contrasting Hedonic vs. Eudaimonic Wellbeing Among Very Old Adults

Advanced old age has been characterized as a biologically highly vulnerable life phase. Biological, morbidity-, and cognitive impairment-related factors play an important role as mortality predictors among very old adults. However, it is largely unknown whether previous findings confirming the role of different wellbeing domains for mortality translate to survival among the oldest-old individuals. Moreover, the distinction established in the wellbeing literature between hedonic and eudaimonic wellbeing as well as the consideration of within-person variability of potentially relevant mortality predictors has not sufficiently been addressed in prior mortality research. In this study, we examined a broad set of hedonic and eudaimonic wellbeing indicators, including their levels, their changes, as well as their within-person variability, as predictors of all-cause mortality in a sample of very old individuals. We used data from the LateLine study, a 7-year longitudinal study based on a sample of n = 124 individuals who were living alone and who were aged 87–97 years (M = 90.6, SD = 2.9) at baseline. Study participants provided up to 16 measurement occasions (mean number of measurement occasions per individual = 5.50, SD = 4.79) between 2009 and 2016. Dates of death were available for 118 individuals (95.2%) who had deceased between 2009 and 2021. We ran longitudinal multilevel structural equation models and specified between-person level differences, within-person long-term linear change trends, as well as the “detrended” within-person variability in three indicators of hedonic (i.e., life satisfaction and positive and negative affect) and four indicators of eudaimonic wellbeing (i.e., purpose in life, autonomy, environmental mastery, and self-acceptance) as all-cause mortality predictors. Controlling for age, gender, education, and physical condition and testing our sets of hedonic and eudaimonic indictors separately in terms of their mortality impact, solely one eudaimonic wellbeing indicator, namely, autonomy, showed significant effects on survival. Surprisingly, autonomy appeared “paradoxically” related with mortality, with high individual levels and intraindividual highly stable perceptions of autonomy being associated with a shorter residual lifetime. Thus, it seems plausible that accepting dependency and changing perceptions of autonomy over time in accordance with objectively remaining capabilities might become adaptive for survival in very old age.

The GENICA project – a prospective cohort of heart failure patients with a comprehensive ambulatory approach aiming better outcomes: study protocol

Introduction:

Heart failure (HF) is a syndrome increasing worldwide, and literature shows that the hospitalizations are associated with greater mortality rates. A patient-centered method combined with optimized medical treatment and palliative care may improve HF outcomes, and some advocate a multifaceted approach to achieve a perfect management of chronic HF (CHF).

Objective:

The objective of this study was to present the study protocol of GENICA project which aims to optimize the ambulatory approach of CHF patients, and reduce their re-hospitalization, emergency readmission, and global death rate.

Design:

Prospective cohort including patients referred to HF consultation and collecting sociodemographic, clinical, and analytical variables among others. The outcomes will be mortality, re-hospitalization, and emergency readmission rates. The association between the independent variables and outcomes will be assessed by logistic regression. Comparison between GENICA patients and controls will be made by χ² test. Significance at p level of less than 0.05.

Results:

GENICA will offer a wide range of longitudinal data with evidence that will influence future healthcare of CHF patients at an ambulatory basis.

Discussion:

GENICA will provide practical evidence of real HF patient’s profile and develop workable decision algorithms, which will influence future ambulatory care of CHF. HF patients will be safer at home and will keep stability for longer periods, consuming less health resources and slow the progression of the disease. Being a matched cohort, GENICA benefits from an accuracy similar to that of randomized controlled trials, without the need to perform a rigorous allocation of the intervention. Being prospective there’s no problem about response bias.

Conclusion:

CHF should be approached with a multidisciplinary and multifaceted strategy privileging the outpatient setting, including home monitoring, and GENICA is the paramount protocol enabling this. GENICA may come to show health policy makers that the asset is not to divide and rule, but to converge strategies, therapies, and knowledge.

Evaluation of the Correlation Between Cardiac Troponin I Versus Causes of Admission and In-Hospital Mortality in End-Stage Renal Disease Patients

Objectives: There are arguments regarding the relationship between the level of cardiac troponin I (cTnI) and presence of cardiac diseases in end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients. This study aimed to determine the relationship between positivity of cTnI and cause of admission and patients’ outcome in ESRD patients. Methods: In this cross-sectional study, all ESRD patients who had checked cTnI and admitted to two university hospitals in Isfahan, Iran were enrolled. The patients’ demographic characteristics, cause of admission, and outcome were correlated with cTnI positivity. Results: Out of a total of 348 ESRD patients, 100 subjects had positive cTnI. There was a positive correlation between age and admission in Al-Zahra hospital with positive cTnI. In contrast, vascular access complication and hypertension had a negative correlation with positivity of cTnI. The results of multiple logistic regression analysis showed that factors including age (OR: 1.04; 95% CI: 1.01 - 1.07; P: 0.004) and infections (OR: 3.1; 95% CI: 1.3 - 7.3; P: 0.009) were associated with increased risk of in-hospital mortality. In contrary, exit site infection (OR: 0.11; 95% CI: 0.01 - 0.8; P: 0.03) and hypertension (OR = 0.32; 95% CI: 0.14 - 0.77; P = 0.01) were associated with decreased risk of mortality. Although cTnI positivity correlated with patients’ in-hospital mortality (OR = 2.038). Conclusions: Although positive cTnI had a borderline association with in-hospital mortality in ESRD patients, further multicenter studies with larger sample size are required to confirm the results.

Physical and functional measures predicting long-term mortality in community-dwelling older adults: a comparative evaluation in the Singapore Longitudinal Ageing Study

Measures of functional status are known to predict mortality more strongly than traditional disease risk markers in old adult populations. Few studies have compared the predictive accuracy of physical and functional measures for long-term mortality. In this prospective cohort study, community-dwelling older adults (N = 2906) aged 55 + (mean age 66.6 ± 7.7 years) were followed up for mortality outcome up to 9 years (mean 5.8 years). Baseline assessments included Timed Up-and-Go (TUG), gait velocity (GV), knee extension strength, Performance Oriented Mobility Assessment, forced expiratory volume in 1 second, Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), Geriatric Depression Scale, frailty, and medical morbidity. A total of 111 (3.8%) participants died during 16976.7 person-years of follow up. TUG was significantly associated with mortality risk (HR = 2.60, 95% CI = 2.05–3.29 per SD increase; HR = 5.05, 95% CI = 3.27–7.80, for TUG score ≥ 9 s). In multivariate analysis, TUG remained significantly associated with mortality (HR = 1.64, 95% CI = 1.20–2.19 per SD increase; HR = 2.66, 95% CI = 1.67–4.23 for TUG score ≥ 9 s). In multivariable analyses, GV, MMSE, Frailty Index (FI) and physical frailty, diabetes and multi-morbidity were also significantly associated with mortality. However, TUG (AUC = 0.737) demonstrated significantly higher discriminatory accuracy than GV (AUC = 0.666, p < 0.001), MMSE (AUC = 0.63, p < 0.001), FI (AUC = 0.62, p < 0.001), physical frailty (AUC = 0.610, p < 0.001), diabetes (AUC = 0.582, p < 0.001) and multi-morbidity (AUC = 0.589, p < 0.001).

TUG’s predictive accuracy shows surpassing predictive accuracy for long-term mortality in community-dwelling older adults.

Risk for ischemic stroke and coronary heart disease associated with migraine and migraine medication among older adults

Background

Migraine has been associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) events among middle-aged adults. The objective of this study was to determine the risk for ischemic stroke and coronary heart disease (CHD) events among older adults with versus without migraine.

Methods

This retrospective cohort study was conducted using data from US adults ≥66 years of age with Medicare health insurance between 2008 and 2017. After stratification by history of CVD, patients with a history of migraine were matched 1:4 to those without a history of migraine, based on calendar year, age, and sex. Patients were followed through December 31, 2017 for ischemic stroke and CHD events including myocardial infarction or coronary revascularization. All analyses were done separately for patients with and without a history of CVD.

Results

Among patients without a history of CVD (n = 109,950 including n = 21,990 with migraine and n = 87,960 without migraine), 1789 had an ischemic stroke and 3552 had a CHD event. The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) among patients with versus without migraine was 1.20 (95% confidence interval [95%CI], 1.07–1.35) for ischemic stroke and 1.02 (95%CI, 0.93–1.11) for CHD events. Compared to patients without migraine, those with migraine who were taking an opioid medication had a higher risk for ischemic stroke (adjusted HR 1.43 [95%CI, 1.20–1.69]), while those taking a triptan had a lower risk for CHD events (adjusted HR 0.79 [95%CI, 0.67–0.93]). Among patients with a history of CVD (n = 79,515 including n = 15,903 with migraine and n = 63,612 without migraine), 2960 had an ischemic stroke and 7981 had a CHD event. The adjusted HRs (95%CI) for ischemic stroke and CHD events associated with migraine were 1.27 (1.17–1.39) and 0.99 (0.93–1.05), respectively. Patients with migraine taking an opioid medication had a higher risk for ischemic stroke (adjusted HR 1.21 [95%CI, 1.07–1.36]), while those taking a triptan had a lower risk for CHD events (adjusted HR 0.83 [95%CI, 0.72–0.95]), each versus those without migraine.

Conclusions

Older adults with migraine are at increased risk for ischemic stroke. The risk for ischemic stroke among older adults with migraine may differ by migraine medication classes.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s10194-021-01338-z.

Non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and mortality among peritoneal dialysis patients

BACKGROUND

The association between non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL-C) and mortality in patients undergoing peritoneal dialysis (PD) is unclear.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to evaluate the association of non-HDL-C with cardiovascular (CV) and all-cause mortality in PD patients.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective cohort study. A total of 1,616 incident PD patients from a single PD center in South China were followed for a median of 47.6 months. The independent association of non-HDL-C with CV and all-cause mortality was evaluated by a Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

During the follow-up period, 508 (31.4%) patients died, of which 249 (49.0%) were due to CV events. Atherosclerotic CV mortality accounted for 59.8% of CV mortality. In multivariable models, for 1-SD increase in non-HDL-C level, the hazard ratios (HRs) for CV and all-cause mortality were 1.52  [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.32-1.75; P < 0.001)] and 1.24 (95% CI, 1.12-1.39; P < 0.001), respectively. Furthermore, non-HDL-C was positively associated with atherosclerotic CV mortality (HR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.09-1.52; P = 0.004) but not associated with nonatherosclerotic CV mortality (HR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.59-1.05; P = 0.108). The quartile analyses showed a similar pattern to the continuous variable analyses of non-HDL-C levels for CV and all-cause mortality but did not demonstrate statistical significance for atherosclerotic or nonatherosclerotic CV mortality.

CONCLUSION

An elevated non-HDL-C level was independently associated with an increased risk of CV mortality, especially atherosclerotic CV mortality, and all-cause mortality in incident PD patients.

The LDL-C/ApoB ratio predicts major cardiovascular events in patients with established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The low density lipoprotein cholesterol to Apolipoprotein B (LDL-C/ApoB) ratio is a validated proxy for low density lipoprotein (LDL) particle size that can be easily calculated from a standard lipid/apolipoprotein profile. Whether it is predictive of cardiovascular events in patients with established atherosclerosis is not known and is addressed in the present investigation.

METHODS

We determined the LDL-C/ApoB ratio in a cohort of 1687 subjects with established atherosclerosis. Prospectively, major cardiovascular events (MACE) including cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction and non-fatal stroke were recorded over a period of 9.9 ± 4.6 years. The study covers >16,000 patient-years.

RESULTS

At baseline, the LDL-C/ApoB ratio was 1.36 ± 0.28 in our cohort. During follow up, a total of 558 first MACE were recorded. The LDL-C/ApoB ratio predicted MACE in univariate Cox proportional hazard analysis (HR 0.90 [0.82-0.98]; p = 0.014); this finding was confirmed after adjustment for age, gender, intensity of statin treatment, hypertension, history of smoking, type 2 diabetes, body mass index and ApoB (HR 0.87 [0.78-0.97]; p = 0.013).

CONCLUSIONS

The LDL-C/ApoB ratio is independently predictive of MACE in subjects with established atherosclerosis.

Significance of Adipose Tissue Maintenance in Patients Undergoing Hemodialysis

In the general population, obesity is known to be associated with adverse outcomes, including mortality. In contrast, high body mass index (BMI) may provide a survival advantage for hemodialysis patients, which is known as the obesity paradox. Although BMI is the most commonly used measure for the assessment of obesity, it does not distinguish between fat and lean mass. Fat mass is considered to serve as an energy reserve against a catabolic condition, while the capacity to survive starvation is also thought to be dependent on its amount. Thus, fat mass is used as a nutritional marker. For example, improvement of nutritional status by nutritional intervention or initiation of hemodialysis is associated with an increase in fat mass. Several studies have shown that higher levels of fat mass were associated with better survival in hemodialysis patients. Based on body distribution, fat mass is classified into subcutaneous and visceral fat. Visceral fat is metabolically more active and associated with metabolic abnormalities and inflammation, and it is thus considered to be a risk factor for cardiovascular disease and mortality. On the other hand, subcutaneous fat has not been consistently linked to adverse phenomena and may reflect nutritional status as a type of energy storage. Visceral and subcutaneous adipose tissues have different metabolic and inflammatory characteristics and may have opposing influences on various outcomes, including mortality. Results showing an association between increased subcutaneous fat and better survival, along with other conditions, such as cancer or cirrhosis, in hemodialysis patients have been reported. This evidence suggests that fat mass distribution (i.e., visceral fat and subcutaneous fat) plays a more important role for these beneficial effects in hemodialysis patients.

Glycemic and lipid variability for predicting complications and mortality in diabetes mellitus using machine learning

INTRODUCTION

Recent studies have reported that HbA1c and lipid variability is useful for risk stratification in diabetes mellitus. The present study evaluated the predictive value of the baseline, subsequent mean of at least three measurements and variability of HbA1c and lipids for adverse outcomes.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study consists of type 1 and type 2 diabetic patients who were prescribed insulin at outpatient clinics of Hong Kong public hospitals, from 1st January to 31st December 2009. Standard deviation (SD) and coefficient of variation were used to measure the variability of HbA1c, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and triglyceride. The primary outcome is all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes were diabetes-related complications.

RESULT

The study consists of 25,186 patients (mean age = 63.0, interquartile range [IQR] of age = 15.1 years, male = 50%). HbA1c and lipid value and variability were significant predictors of all-cause mortality. Higher HbA1c and lipid variability measures were associated with increased risks of neurological, ophthalmological and renal complications, as well as incident dementia, osteoporosis, peripheral vascular disease, ischemic heart disease, atrial fibrillation and heart failure (p <  0.05). Significant association was found between hypoglycemic frequency (p <  0.0001), HbA1c (p <  0.0001) and lipid variability against baseline neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR).

CONCLUSION

Raised variability in HbA1c and lipid parameters are associated with an elevated risk in both diabetic complications and all-cause mortality. The association between hypoglycemic frequency, baseline NLR, and both HbA1c and lipid variability implicate a role for inflammation in mediating adverse outcomes in diabetes, but this should be explored further in future studies.

Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio as a Cardiovascular Risk Marker May Be Less Efficient in Women Than in Men

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in women, although traditionally, it has been considered as a male dominated disease. Chronic inflammation plays a crucial role in the development of insulin resistance, diabetes type 2 and CVD. Since studies on women were scarce, in order to improve diagnosis and treatment of CVD, there is a need to improve understanding of the role of inflammation in the development of CVD in women. The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is an inexpensive and widely available marker of inflammation, and has been studied in cardio-metabolic disorders. There is a paucity of data on sex specific differences in the lifetime course of NLR. Men and women differ to each other in sex hormones and characteristics of immune reaction and the expression of CVD. These factors can determine NLR values and their variations along the life course. In particular, menopause in women is a period associated with profound physiological and hormonal changes, and is coincidental with aging. An emergence of CV risk factors with aging, and age-related changes in the immune system, are factors that are associated with an increase in prevalence of CVD in both sexes. The aim of this review is to comprehend the available evidence on this issue, and to discuss sex specific differences in the lifetime course of NLR in the light of immune and inflammation mechanisms.

The Prevalence and Risk Factors of Hypertension among the Urban Population in Southeast Asian Countries: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

The trend of global prevalence for hypertension has been dramatically increasing for the past two decades in Southeast Asian countries. A systematic review aiming to assess the prevalence of hypertension and its risk factors among the urban population in Southeast Asian countries was conducted. We performed database searches of PubMed and Web of Science and performed meta-analysis to determine the pooled prevalence estimate. The overall pooled prevalence estimate of hypertension for Southeast Asian urban population was 33.82%. Among this, 33.98% of hypertension was reported in the community and 32.45% among adolescents in school. The common risk factors that we found were male, ethnicity, education and socioeconomic level, body mass index, waist circumference, smoking, and dyslipidaemia. The review indicates an urgent need for primary and secondary prevention activities. Therefore, a multisectoral and intersectoral approach and collaboration should be undertaken to improve the overall health outcomes of all populations in all Southeast Asian countries.

Bacterial Postbiotics as Promising Tools to Mitigate Cardiometabolic Diseases

Gut microbes dictate critical features of host immunometabolism. Certain bacterial components and metabolites (termed postbiotics) mitigate cardiometabolic diseases whereas others potentiate pathological processes. In this review, we discuss key aspects related to the usefulness of bacterial-related molecules strategically positioned as promising treatment strategies for cardiometabolic diseases.

Effects of body mass index on kidney transplant outcomes are significantly modified by patient characteristics

Body mass index (BMI) is a known risk factor associated with kidney transplant outcomes and is incorporated for determining transplant candidate eligibility. However, BMI is a coarse health measure and risks associated with BMI may vary by patient characteristics. We evaluated 296 807 adult (age > 17) solitary kidney transplant recipients from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (2000-2019). We examined effects of BMI using survival models and tested interactions with recipient characteristics. Overall, BMI demonstrated a "J-Shaped" risk profile with elevated risks for overall graft loss with low BMI and obesity. However, multivariable models indicated interactions between BMI with recipient age, diagnosis, gender, and race/ethnicity. Low BMI was relatively higher risk for older recipients (>60 years), people with type I diabetes, and males and demonstrated no additional risk among younger (18-39) and Hispanic recipients. High BMI was associated with elevated risk for Caucasians and attenuated risk among African Americans and people with type II diabetes. Effects of BMI had variable risks for mortality vs graft loss by recipient characteristics in competing risks models. The association of BMI with posttransplant outcomes is highly variable among kidney transplant recipients. Results are important considerations for personalized care and risk stratification. Findings suggest that transplant contraindications should not be based on absolute BMI thresholds but modified based on patient characteristics.

Multimorbidity patterns and their relationship to mortality in the US older adult population

Background

Understanding patterns of multimorbidity in the US older adult population and their relationship with mortality is important for reducing healthcare utilization and improving health. Previous investigations measured multimorbidity as counts of conditions rather than specific combination of conditions.

Methods

This cross-sectional study with longitudinal mortality follow-up employed latent class analysis (LCA) to develop clinically meaningful subgroups of participants aged 50 and older with different combinations of 13 chronic conditions from the National Health Interview Survey 2002–2014. Mortality linkage with National Death Index was performed through December 2015 for 166,126 participants. Survival analyses were conducted to assess the relationships between LCA classes and all-cause mortality and cause specific mortalities.

Results

LCA identified five multimorbidity groups with primary characteristics: “healthy” (51.5%), “age-associated chronic conditions” (33.6%), “respiratory conditions” (7.3%), “cognitively impaired” (4.3%) and “complex cardiometabolic” (3.2%). Covariate-adjusted survival analysis indicated “complex cardiometabolic” class had the highest mortality with a Hazard Ratio (HR) of 5.30, 99.5% CI [4.52, 6.22]; followed by “cognitively impaired” class (3.34 [2.93, 3.81]); “respiratory condition” class (2.14 [1.87, 2.46]); and “age-associated chronic conditions” class (1.81 [1.66, 1.98]). Patterns of multimorbidity classes were strongly associated with the primary underlying cause of death. The “cognitively impaired” class reported similar number of conditions compared to the “respiratory condition” class but had significantly higher mortality (3.8 vs 3.7 conditions, HR = 1.56 [1.32, 1.85]).

Conclusion

We demonstrated that LCA method is effective in classifying clinically meaningful multimorbidity subgroup. Specific combinations of conditions including cognitive impairment and depressive symptoms have a substantial detrimental impact on the mortality of older adults. The numbers of chronic conditions experienced by older adults is not always proportional to mortality risk. Our findings provide valuable information for identifying high risk older adults with multimorbidity to facilitate early intervention to treat chronic conditions and reduce mortality.

Patterns of Chronic Conditions and Their Association With Visual Impairment and Health Care Use

Importance

Visual impairment and visual disorders often co-occur with other chronic conditions. Understanding patterns of multimorbidity is important for reducing health care use and improving health outcomes.

Objective

To identify chronic condition patterns and their association with visual impairment and health care use in a nationally representative sample.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cross-sectional study used National Health Interview Survey data for 387 780 individuals aged 18 years and older, representative of the civilian noninstitutionalized US population, from January 1, 2002, to December 31, 2014. Statistical analysis was performed from June to November 2018.

Exposures

Participants were classified in subgroups with different combinations of self-reported chronic conditions using latent class analysis.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Self-reported visual impairment, emergency department visit, and hospitalization use in the previous 12 months.

Results

Among the 387 780 individuals included in the study, 51.8% were female, 77.6% were white, and the mean (SD) age was 46.2 (18.0) years. Latent class analysis identified 5 different classes, with 70.5% of the participants belonging to the healthy group. The other 4 groups represented various degrees and patterns of multimorbidity. The hypertensive group (19.6%) had a high prevalence of hypertension (62.6%), the respiratory conditions group (4.4%) had a high prevalence of emphysema (47.7%) and asthma (45.6%), the heart disease group (3.6%) had high prevalence of coronary heart disease (69.8%), and the severely impaired group (1.8%) had higher prevalence of most conditions compared with the other groups. In the adjusted analysis, compared with the healthy group, participants in all 4 disease groups had elevated risk of visual impairment: heart condition group (odds ratio [OR], 3.19; 95% CI, 2.92-3.48), hypertensive group (OR, 3.28; 95% CI, 3.10-3.48), respiratory condition group (OR, 3.87; 95% CI, 3.56-4.20), and severely impaired group (OR, 10.19; 95% CI, 9.20-11.28). All 4 disease groups had elevated risk of reporting emergency department use and hospitalization. For the severely impaired group, the OR for emergency department use was 9.39 (95% CI, 8.53-10.34), and the OR for hospitalization was 10.80 (95% CI, 9.80-11.92).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study, individuals in all 4 multimorbidity groups had an elevated risk of visual impairment and health care use compared with the healthy group. Characteristics of high-risk groups identified by this study may help in the development and implementation of interventions to avert the more serious consequences of having multiple chronic conditions.

The Influence of Gender in The Prognostic Impact of Diabetes mellitus in acute Pulmonary Embolism

Diabetes mellitus (DM) predicts ominous outcomes in acute pulmonary embolism (PE). The influence of gender on the prognostic impact of DM in PE is unknown. We did a retrospective analysis of a cohort of patients hospitalized with PE between 2006 and 2013. The exclusion criteria were age <18, non-pulmonary veins thromboembolism, recurrent PE, chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension, no radiologic confirmation of PE, and active neoplasia. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality. The follow-up was from diagnosis until October 2017. We assessed the prognostic impact of DM using a multivariate Cox regression analysis. The analysis was stratified according to gender. The interaction between gender and DM in the outcome of patients with PE was tested. We studied 577 PE patients (median age 65 years, 36.9% men, 19.8% diabetic). The genders were similar regarding the prevalence of DM, the extension and location of PE, and the thrombolytic therapy or brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) value. Diabetics presented higher all-cause mortality (Hazard ratio (HR) = 2.33 (95% confidence Interval (CI) 1.513.61)) when compared with non-diabetics. However, when analysis was stratified according to gender, DM was independently associated with a worse prognosis only in women (HR = 2.31 (95% CI 1.453.65)), while in men the HR was 1.10 (95% CI 0.592.04). The interaction between gender and DM was significant (p = 0.04). Gender influences the prognostic impact of DM in acute PE. Diabetic women with PE have twice the long-term mortality risk, while DM is not mortality-associated in men.

The other side of the medallion in heart failure: Reverse metabolic syndrome

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Lower levels of cardiovascular risk factors are associated with an increase in mortality in H.F. To explain this paradox, the term reverse metabolic syndrome (RMetS) has recently been proposed. We suggest defining these patients with lower levels of three risk factors can be combined under the heading "RMetS." We aimed to investigate the effect of MetS and RMetS on hemodynamic parameters and prognosis in patients with H.F. and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF).

METHODS AND RESULTS

We included 304 patients who were performed right heart catheterization and followed up for a median of 16 (0-48) months. We first grouped patients according to the presence of MetS or not, then we added the RMetS category and stratified patients into three groups as MetS, RMetS, and metabolic healthy. Compared with not MetS group, Pulmonary arterial pressures and VO₂ were higher in MetS group. In the second step, LVEF, CI, VO₂I, O₂ delivery, and LVSWI were lowest in RMetS, pulmonary artery pressures were higher in MetS group. In multivariate Cox regression analysis, being in RMetS group was associated with 2.4 times and 1.8 times increased risk for composite end point (CEP) and all-cause mortality, respectively. In Kaplan Meier analysis, RMetS had the highest all-cause mortality and CEP.

CONCLUSIONS

We determined that RMetS patients had the worst prognosis with unfavorable hemodynamic profile. Hence, a better understanding of the pathophysiology of RMetS may help refine the treatment targets of CV risk factors, may yield new interventions targeting catabolic syndrome.

Metabolic syndrome in haemodialysis patients: prevalence, determinants and association to cardiovascular outcomes

BACKGROUND

In the general population, metabolic syndrome (MetS) is predictive of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Waist circumference (WC), a component of the MetS criteria, is linked to visceral obesity, which in turn is associated with MACE. However, in haemodialysis (HD) patients, the association between MetS, WC and MACE is unclear.

METHODS

In a cross-sectional study of 1000 HD patients, we evaluated the prevalence and characterised the clinical predictors of MetS. The relationship between MetS and its components, alone or in combination, and MACE (coronary diseases, peripheral arteriopathy, stroke or cardiac failure), was studied using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves and logistic regression.

RESULTS

A total of 753 patients were included between October 2011 and April 2013. The prevalence of MetS was 68.5%. Waist circumference (> 88 cm in women, 102 cm in men) was the best predictor of MetS (sensitivity 80.2; specificity 82.3; AUC 0.80; p <  0.05). In multivariate analysis, MetS was associated with MACE (OR: 1.85; 95CI 1.24-2.75; p <  0.01), but not WC alone. There was a stronger association between the combination of abdominal obesity, hypertriglyceridaemia and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol with MACE after exclusion of impaired fasting glucose and hypertension.

CONCLUSIONS

MetS is frequent and significantly associated with MACE in our haemodialysis cohort and probably in other European dialysis populations as well. In HD patients, a new simplified definition could be proposed in keeping with the concept of the "hypertriglyceridaemic waist".

Under-Recognizing Malnutrition in Hospitalized Obese Populations: The Real Paradox

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Obesity and malnutrition are frequently encountered in the hospitalized population. Although malnutrition associated with low or normal body mass index (BMI) is easily identified, malnutrition in obese patients goes frequently unrecognized as their fat mass masks underlying muscle mass deterioration. The purpose of this review is to explore if malnutrition has been studied in the obese hospitalized population and if that may be one of the reasons for the variable results in the obesity outcome data.

RECENT FINDINGS

Various studies have shown a conflicting association between obesity and outcomes in hospitalized patient population. Most prior studies used BMI alone as an indicator of obesity and although some recent studies have included body fat percentage, muscle mass, and functional status, they still showed variable outcomes. Unfortunately, there are not many studies that looked into nutrition status specifically in obese patients to study the outcomes. Studies evaluating clinical outcomes in obese patients showed a wide range of outcomes; some showed a protective effect while others were neutral. We explored recent data about obesity, malnutrition, and outcomes, where researchers more precisely defined malnutrition and obesity to determine health outcomes.

Association of Conventional Cardiovascular Risk Factors With Cardiovascular Disease After Hypertensive Disorders of Pregnancy: Analysis of the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study

Importance

Women with a history of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP) have higher risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). It is not known how much of the excess CVD risk in women with a history of HDP is associated with conventional cardiovascular risk factors.

Objective

To quantify the excess risk of CVD in women with a history of HDP and estimate the proportion associated with conventional cardiovascular risk factors.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Prospective cohort study with a median follow-up of 18 years. Population-based cohort of women participating in the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study in Norway. We linked data for 31 364 women from the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (1984-2008) to validated hospital records (1987-2015), the Cause of Death Registry (1984-2015), and the Medical Birth Registry of Norway (1967-2012). A total of 7399 women were excluded based on selected pregnancy characteristics, incomplete data, or because of emigrating or experiencing the end point before start of follow-up, leaving 23 885 women for study. Data were analyzed between January 1, 2018, and June 6, 2018.

Exposures

Experiencing 1 or more pregnancies complicated by HDP before age 40 years vs only experiencing normotensive pregnancies.

Main Outcomes and Measures

We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) for the association between HDP and CVD. The proportion of excess risk associated with conventional cardiovascular risk factors was estimated using an inverse odds ratio weighting approach.

Results

Our study population consisted of 23 885 parous women from Nord-Trøndelag County, Norway. A total of 21 766 women had only normotensive pregnancies, while 2199 women experienced ever having an HDP. From age 40 to 70 years, women with history of HDP had an increased risk of CVD compared with women with only normotensive pregnancies (HR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.32-1.87) but not at older age (β = 0.98; 95% CI, 0.96-1.00; P for interaction by age = .01). Blood pressure and body mass index were associated with up to 77% of the excess risk of CVD in women with history of HDP, while glucose and lipid levels were associated with smaller proportions.

Conclusion and Relevance

In this study, the risk of excess CVD in women with history of HDP was associated with conventional cardiovascular risk factors, indicating that these risk factors are important targets for cardiovascular prevention in these women.

Gout is associated with an increased risk for incident heart failure among older adults: the REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) cohort study

Background

Gout has been associated with a higher risk for coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke in some prior studies. Few studies have assessed the association of gout with incident heart failure (HF).

Methods

We analyzed data from 5713 black and white men and women ≥ 65.5 years of age in the population-based REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) cohort study who had Medicare coverage without a history of HF, CHD, or stroke at baseline between 2003 and 2007. Gout was defined by ≥ 1 hospitalization or ≥ 2 outpatient visits with a diagnosis code for gout in Medicare claims prior to each participant’s baseline study examination. REGARDS study participants were followed for HF hospitalization, CHD, stroke, and all-cause mortality as separate outcomes through December 31, 2016. Analyses were replicated in a random sample of 839,059 patients ≥ 65.5 years of age with Medicare coverage between January 1, 2008, and June 30, 2015, who were followed through December 31, 2017.

Results

Among REGARDS study participants included in the current analysis, the mean age at baseline was 72.6 years, 44.9% were men, 31.4% were black, and 3.3% had gout. Over a median follow-up of 10.0 years, incidence rates per 1000 person-years among participants with and without gout were 13.1 and 4.4 for HF hospitalization, 16.0 and 9.3 for CHD, 9.3 and 8.2 for stroke, and 55.0 and 37.1 for all-cause mortality, respectively. After multivariable adjustment for sociodemographic variables and cardiovascular risk factors, hazard ratios (95% CI) comparing participants with versus without gout were 1.97 (1.22, 3.19) for HF hospitalization, 1.21 (0.79, 1.84) for CHD, 0.83 (0.48, 1.43) for stroke, and 1.08 (0.86, 1.35) for all-cause mortality. The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio for HF hospitalization with reduced and preserved left ventricular ejection fraction among participants with versus without gout was 1.77 (95% CI 0.83, 3.79) and 2.32 (95% CI 1.12, 4.79), respectively. The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio for heart failure hospitalization associated with gout among the 839,059 Medicare beneficiaries was 1.32 (95% CI 1.25, 1.39).

Conclusion

Among older adults, gout was associated with an increased risk for incident HF but not for incident CHD, incident stroke, or all-cause mortality.

Predictive value of traditional risk factors for cardiovascular disease in older people: A systematic review

With increasing age, associations between traditional risk factors (TRFs) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) shift. It is unknown which mid-life risk factors remain relevant predictors for CVD in older people. We systematically searched PubMed and EMBASE on August 16th 2019 for studies assessing predictive ability of >1 of fourteen TRFs for fatal and non-fatal CVD, in the general population aged 60+. We included 12 studies, comprising 11 unique cohorts. TRF were evaluated in 2 to 11 cohorts, and retained in 0-70% of the cohorts: age (70%), diabetes (64%), male sex (57%), systolic blood pressure (SBP) (50%), smoking (36%), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL) (33%), left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) (33%), total cholesterol (22%), diastolic blood pressure (20%), antihypertensive medication use (AHM) (20%), body mass index (BMI) (0%), hypertension (0%), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (0%). In studies with low to moderate risk of bias, systolic blood pressure (SBP) (80%), smoking (80%) and HDL cholesterol (60%) were more often retained. Model performance was moderate with C-statistics ranging from 0.61 to 0.77. Compared to middle-aged adults, in people aged 60+ different risk factors predict CVD and current prediction models perform only moderate at best. According to most studies, age, sex and diabetes seem valuable predictors of CVD in old-age. SBP, HDL cholesterol and smoking may also have predictive value. Other blood pressure and cholesterol related variables, BMI, and LVH seem of very limited or no additional value. Without competing risk analysis, predictors are overestimated.

Changes in Metabolic Syndrome Status and Risk of Dementia

This study investigated the effects of changes in metabolic syndrome (MS) status and each component on subsequent dementia occurrence. The study population was participants of a biennial National Health Screening Program in 2009–2010 and 2011–2012 in Korea. Participants were divided into four groups according to change in MS status during the two-year interval screening: sustained normal, worsened (normal to MS), improved (MS to normal), and sustained MS group. Risk of dementia among the groups was estimated from the second screening date to 31 December 2016 using a Cox proportional hazards model. A total of 4,106,590 participants were included. The mean follow-up was 4.9 years. Compared to the sustained normal group, adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) (95% confidence interval) were 1.11 (1.08–1.13) for total dementia, 1.08 (1.05–1.11) for Alzheimer’s disease, and 1.20 (1.13–1.28) for vascular dementia in the worsened group; 1.12 (1.10–1.15), 1.10 (1.07–1.13), and 1.19 (1.12–1.27) for the improved group; and 1.18 (1.16–1.20), 1.13 (1.11–1.15), and 1.38 (1.32–1.44) for the sustained MS group. Normalization of MS lowered the risk of all dementia types; total dementia (aHR 1.18 versus 1.12), Alzheimer’s disease (1.13 versus 1.10), and vascular dementia (1.38 versus 1.19). Among MS components, fasting glucose and blood pressure showed more impact. In conclusion, changes in MS status were associated with the risk of dementia. Strategies to improve MS, especially hyperglycemia and blood pressure, may help to prevent dementia.

Metabolic syndrome is associated with better quality of sleep in the oldest old: results from the "Mugello Study"

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Reduced sleep quality is common in advanced age. Poor sleep quality is associated with adverse outcomes, chiefly cardiovascular, in young and middle-aged subjects, possibly because of its association with metabolic syndrome (MetS). However, the correlates of sleep quality in oldest populations are unknown. We evaluated the association of sleep quality with MetS in a cohort of subjects aged 90+.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We analysed data of 343 subjects aged 90+ living in the Mugello area (Tuscany, Italy). Quality of sleep was assessed using the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Assessment Index (PSQI). Good quality of sleep was defined by a PSQI score < 5. MetS was diagnosed according to the National Cholesterol Education Program's ATP-III criteria; 83 (24%) participants reported good quality of sleep. MetS was diagnosed in 110 (24%) participants. In linear and logistic models, MetS was inversely associated with PSQI score ((B = - 1.04; 95% CI - 2.06 to - .03; P = .044), with increased probability of good sleep quality (OR = 2.52; 95% CI 1.26-5.02; P = .009), and with a PSQI below the median (OR = 2.11; 95% CI 1.11-3.40, P = .022), after adjusting. None of the single components of MetS were associated with PSQI (all P values > .050). However, an increasing number of MetS components was associated with increasing probability of good quality of sleep (P for trend = .002), and of PSQI below the median (P for trend = .007). Generalized Additive Model analysis documented no smoothing function suggestive of nonlinear association between PSQI and MetS.

CONCLUSION

Our results confirm a high prevalence of poor sleep quality in oldest age; however, in these subjects, MetS seems to be associated with better sleep quality. Additional larger, dedicated studies are required to confirm our results, and, if so, to identify the subsystems involved and the potential therapeutic implications of such an association.

Characteristics of healthy vascular ageing in pooled population-based cohort studies: the global Metabolic syndrome and Artery REsearch Consortium

OBJECTIVE

Arterial ageing is characterized by increasing arterial stiffness as measured by pulse wave velocity (PWV). This process is enhanced in participants with early vascular ageing (EVA), but slowed in participants with healthy vascular ageing (HVA). We aimed to describe characteristics of EVA and HVA in a transcontinental study including 11 cohorts.

METHODS

In all, 18 490 participants from the global MARE Consortium, free of cardiovascular disease, participated with data on PWV and cardiometabolic risk factors. We defined HVA as the lowest 10% and EVA as the highest 10% of the standardized PWV distribution, adjusted for age intervals. HVA individuals were compared with the 90% of non-HVA individuals with ANCOVA, adjusted for age, sex and hypertension.

RESULTS

The 1723 HVA participants were at the same age as the rest of the population, more likely women (59.4 vs 57.0%), and with significantly lower levels of established cardiovascular risk factors (blood pressure, lipids, glucose). Similarly, the prevalence rate of obesity, diabetes mellitus, hypertension and the metabolic syndrome was lower in the HVA participants. In the presence of similar levels of cardiovascular risk factors, HVA participants in the 50-64 years of age group presented lower PWV 5.8 (SD 0.5) vs. 7.4 (1.4) m/s (P < 0.0001) than control individuals in the 35-49 years of age group, corresponding to an estimated difference in chronological age of 14 years.

CONCLUSION

Participants with healthy vascular ageing (HVA), belonging to the lowest end of the PWV distribution, are in general characterized by an up to 14 years estimated younger biological (vascular) age than those with higher PWV values, and have lower levels of risk factors.

BMI and its association with death and the initiation of renal replacement therapy (RRT) in a cohort of patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD)

BACKGROUND

A survival advantage associated with obesity has often been described in dialysis patients. The association of higher body mass index (BMI) with mortality and renal replacement therapy (RRT) in preterminal chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients has not been established.

METHODS

Subjects were patients with pre-terminal CKD who were recruited to the CKD.QLD registry. BMI at time of consent was grouped as normal (BMI 18.5-24.9 kg/m2), overweight (BMI 25-29.9 kg/m2), mild obesity (BMI 30-34.9 kg/m2) and moderate obesity+ (BMI ≥ 35 kg/m2) as defined by WHO criteria. The associations of BMI categories with mortality and starting RRT were analysed.

RESULTS

The cohort consisted of 3344 CKD patients, of whom 1777 were males (53.1%). The percentages who had normal BMI, or were overweight, mildly obese and moderately obese+ were 18.9, 29.9, 25.1 and 26.1%, respectively. Using people with normal BMI as the reference group, and after adjusting for age, socio-economic status, CKD stage, primary renal diagnoses, comorbidities including cancer, diabetes, peripheral vascular disease (PVD), chronic lung disease, coronary artery disease (CAD), and all other cardiovascular disease (CVD), the hazard ratios (HRs, 95% CI) of males for death without RRT were 0.65 (0.45-0.92, p = 0.016), 0.60 (0.40-0.90, p = 0.013), and 0.77 (0.50-1.19, p = 0.239) for the overweight, mildly obese and moderately obese+. With the same adjustments the hazard ratios for death without RRT in females were 0.96 (0.62-1.50, p = 0.864), 0.94 (0.59-1.49, p = 0.792) and 0.96 (0.60-1.53, p = 0.865) respectively. In males, with normal BMI as the reference group, the adjusted HRs of starting RRT were 1.15 (0.71-1.86, p = 0.579), 0.99 (0.59-1.66, p = 0.970), and 0.95 (0.56-1.61, p = 0.858) for the overweight, mildly obese and moderately obese+ groups, respectively, and in females they were 0.88 (0.44-1.76, p = 0.727), 0.94 (0.47-1.88, p = 0.862) and 0.65 (0.33-1.29, p = 0.219) respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

More than 80% of these CKD patients were overweight or obese. Higher BMI seemed to be a significant "protective" factor against death without RRT in males but there was not a significant relationship in females. Higher BMI was not a risk factor for predicting RRT in either male or female patients with CKD.

U-shaped association between low-density lipid cholesterol and diabetes mellitus in patients with hypertension

Background

The magnitude and direction of association of low-density lipid cholesterol (LDL-C) with diabetes mellitus (DM) might differ by hypertensive status, but there is limited epidemiological evidence in China.

Methods

We examined the association between LDL-C levels and DM in 9892 participants with hypertension using logistic regression. Participants were stratified into three groups according to LDL-C levels (desirable, borderline high or high), then further divided into quartiles. Restricted cubic spline regression models, subgroup analysis and interaction tests were also conducted to evaluate the shape of association.

Results

After adjusting for covariates, lower LDL-C had a significant and inverse association with the likelihood of DM in all participants (OR: 0.944, 95% CI = 0.893, 0.998). In participants with desirable LDL-C concentrations (< 3.4 mmol/L), LDL-C protected against DM (OR = 1.240, 95% CI = 1.076, 1.429 per 1 mmol/L decrease). In participants with higher LDL-C concentrations (> 4.1 mmol/L), LDL-C increased the DM likelihood (OR = 1.536, 95% CI = 1.126, 2.096 per 1 mmol/L increase). Restricted cubic spline regression also found a U-shaped association between LDL-C levels and DM prevalence.

Conclusions

There was a U-shaped association between LDL-C levels and DM in Chinese patients with hypertension.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12944-019-1105-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Inverse Association Between Neck Pain and All-Cause Mortality in Community-Dwelling Older Adults

Objective

In a previous study, we found an apparent protective effect of neck pain on all-cause mortality in subjects older than age 85 years. The present longitudinal investigation was performed to verify this unexpected finding in a larger sample and to establish its significance.

Design

Population follow-up study.

Setting

Three towns of Northern Italy.

Subjects

We examined 5,253 community-dwelling residents age 65-102 years (55% female).

Methods

Through a postal questionnaire, baseline information was obtained concerning cardiovascular risk factors, self-rated health, physical activity, cardiovascular events, medical therapy, and presence of pain in the main joints. Seven-year all-cause mortality was the end point.

Results

During follow-up, 1,250 people died. After adjustment for age, sex, anti-inflammatory drugs, physical activity, and main risk factors, neck pain was inversely associated with mortality (hazard ratio = 0.74, 95% confidence interval = 0.64-0.86, P < 0.001). This association was present, with high significance, in each of the eight following subgroups: men, women, age 65-74 years, age 75-84 years, age ≥85 years and residents of each of the three towns. The subjects without neck pain (N = 3,158) were older, more often men, less often hypercholesterolemic, less physically active, and had more frequently had a stroke than the subjects with neck pain (N = 2,095). There were no differences in the causes of death between subjects with or without neck pain.

Conclusion

This study has confirmed the existence of an independent inverse association between neck pain and mortality in the elderly, suggesting that reduced sensitivity to neck pain may be a new marker of frailty.

A cardiovascular risk prediction model for older people: Development and validation in a primary care population

Cardiovascular risk prediction is mainly based on traditional risk factors that have been validated in middle‐aged populations. However, associations between these risk factors and cardiovascular disease (CVD) attenuate with increasing age. Therefore, for older people the authors developed and internally validated risk prediction models for fatal and non‐fatal CVD, (re)evaluated the predictive value of traditional and new factors, and assessed the impact of competing risks of non‐cardiovascular death. Post hoc analyses of 1811 persons aged 70‐78 year and free from CVD at baseline from the preDIVA study (Prevention of Dementia by Intensive Vascular care, 2006‐2015), a primary care‐based trial that included persons free from dementia and conditions likely to hinder successful long‐term follow‐up, were performed. In 2017‐2018, Cox‐regression analyses were performed for a model including seven traditional risk factors only, and a model to assess incremental predictive ability of the traditional and eleven new factors. Analyses were repeated accounting for competing risk of death, using Fine‐Gray models. During an average of 6.2 years of follow‐up, 277 CVD events occurred. Age, sex, smoking, and type 2 diabetes mellitus were traditional predictors for CVD, whereas total cholesterol, HDL‐cholesterol, and systolic blood pressure (SBP) were not. Of the eleven new factors, polypharmacy and apathy symptoms were predictors. Discrimination was moderate (concordance statistic 0.65). Accounting for competing risks resulted in slightly smaller predicted absolute risks. In conclusion, we found, SBP, HDL, and total cholesterol no longer predict CVD in older adults, whereas polypharmacy and apathy symptoms are two new relevant predictors. Building on the selected risk factors in this study may improve CVD prediction in older adults and facilitate targeting preventive interventions to those at high risk.