A competing risks analysis should report results on all cause-specific hazards and cumulative incidence functions

Inverse Probability of Treatment Weighting Using the Propensity Score With Competing Risks in Survival Analysis

Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) using the propensity score allows estimation of the effect of treatment in observational studies. We had three objectives: first, to describe methods for using IPTW to estimate the effects of treatments in settings with competing risks; second, to illustrate the application of these methods using empirical analyses; and third, to conduct Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the relative performance of three methods for estimating time-specific risk differences and time-specific relative risks in settings with competing risks. In doing so, we provide guidance to applied biostatisticians and clinical investigators on the use of IPTW in settings with competing risks. We examined three estimators of time-specific risk differences and relative risks: the weighted Aalen-Johansen estimator, an estimator that combines IPTW with inverse probability of censoring weights (IPTW-IPCWs), and a double-robust augmented IPTW estimator combined with IPCW (AIPTW-IPCW). The design of our simulations reflected clinically realistic scenarios. Our simulations found that all three estimators tended to result in unbiased estimations of time-specific risk differences and time-specific relative risks. However, the weighted Aalen-Johansen estimator and the AIPTW-IPCW estimator tended to result in estimates with greater precision compared to the IPTW-IPCW estimator. In our empirical analyses, we illustrated the application of these methods by estimating the effect of statin prescribing on the risk of subsequent cardiovascular death in patients discharged from the hospital with a diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction.

Plain versus drug balloon and stenting in severe ischaemia of the leg (BASIL-3): open label, three arm, randomised, multicentre, phase 3 trial

OBJECTIVE

To determine which primary endovascular revascularisation strategy represents the most clinically effective treatment for patients with chronic limb threatening ischaemia who require endovascular femoro-popliteal, with or without infra-popliteal, revascularisation.

DESIGN

Three arm, open label, pragmatic, multicentre, randomised, phase 3 superiority trial (BASIL-3).

SETTING

35 UK NHS vascular units.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients with chronic limb threatening ischaemia who required endovascular femoro-popliteal, with or without infra-popliteal, revascularisation.

INTERVENTIONS

Participants were randomly assigned (1:1:1) to femoro-popliteal plain balloon angioplasty with or without bare metal stenting (PBA±BMS), drug coated balloon angioplasty with or without bare metal stenting (DCBA±BMS), or drug eluting stenting (DES) as their first revascularisation strategy.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was amputation free survival defined as time to first major amputation or death from any cause. Secondary outcomes included the composite components of the primary outcome, major adverse limb events, major adverse cardiac events, and other prespecified clinical and patient reported outcome measures. Serious adverse events were collected up to 30 days after the first revascularisation procedure.

RESULTS

Between 29 January 2016 and 31 August 2021, 481 participants were randomised (167 (35%) women, mean age 71.8 years (standard deviation 10.8)). Major amputation or death occurred in 106 of 160 (66%) participants in the PBA±BMS group, 97 of 161 (60%) in the DCBA±BMS group, and 93 of 159 (58%) in the DES group (adjusted hazard ratios: PBA±BMS v DCBA±BMS: 0.84, 97.5% confidence interval 0.61 to 1.16, P=0.22; PBA±BMS v DES: 0.83, 0.60 to 1.15, P=0.20). No differences in serious adverse events were reported between the groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Neither DCBA±BMS nor DES conferred significant clinical benefit over PBA±BMS in the femoro-popliteal segment in patients with chronic limb threatening ischaemia undergoing endovascular femoro-popliteal, with or without infra-popliteal, revascularisation.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN registry ISRCTN14469736.

Mortality due to carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii bacteraemia: a five-year cohort study in intensive care patients

OBJECTIVES

Carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (CRAB) has emerged as a major and difficult-to-treat nosocomial pathogen. This study estimated the mortality associated with CRAB bacteraemia in patients receiving treatment in the intensive care unit. A susceptible-infection counterfactual framework was applied to reflect the potential benefit of improved antimicrobial therapy.

METHODS

A five-year (2019-2023) cohort study was conducted in a tertiary-care referral hospital in Greece. Competing risks survival analysis methods were applied to estimate excess in-hospital mortality due to CRAB bacteraemia by comparing patients infected by CRAB to those infected by other more susceptible Gram-negative bacteria (GNB).

RESULTS

The cohort comprised 400 intensive care patients with GNB bacteraemia (median age 70 years, 65% male). CRAB was the most common pathogen (43%), followed by K. pneumoniae (12%), E. coli (11%), and P. aeruginosa (10%). Patients with CRAB bacteraemia experienced significantly higher in-hospital mortality at 14 days (35% vs. 21%), 28 days (53% vs. 30%) and overall (74% vs. 52%) compared to patients with other GNB bacteraemia. Multivariable competing-risks regression confirmed that CRAB bacteraemia was independently associated with increased risk of 28-day inpatient death (cause-specific hazard ratio [csHR] 1.80, 95% CI 1.28-2.54; sub-distribution hazard ratio [sHR] 1.84, 95% CI 1.28-2.62), simultaneously lowering the probability of discharge alive (csHR 0.68, 95% CI 0.38-1.21; sHR 0.52, 95% CI 0.30-0.91). Estimation of the attributable fraction suggested that effective antimicrobial management may result in a relative decrease in the risk of in-hospital mortality by 44% (95% CI 22%-61%) in CRAB bacteraemia patients.

CONCLUSIONS

CRAB's detrimental role as a leading cause of increased inpatient mortality and prolongation of hospitalisation in intensive-care patients was demonstrated. These outcomes could improve substantially if more effective antimicrobial treatment becomes available. Nevertheless, considering CRAB is predominantly a hospital-acquired pathogen, efforts should always be directed towards preventing nosocomial transmission.

Association of glycemic control with Long COVID in patients with type 2 diabetes: findings from the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C)

INTRODUCTION

Elevated glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) in individuals with type 2 diabetes is associated with increased risk of hospitalization and death after acute COVID-19, however the effect of HbA1c on Long COVID is unclear.

OBJECTIVE

Evaluate the association of glycemic control with the development of Long COVID in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study using electronic health record data from the National COVID Cohort Collaborative. Our cohort included individuals with T2D from eight sites with longitudinal natural language processing (NLP) data. The primary outcome was death or new-onset recurrent Long COVID symptoms within 30-180 days after COVID-19. Symptoms were identified as keywords from clinical notes using NLP in respiratory, brain fog, fatigue, loss of smell/taste, cough, cardiovascular and musculoskeletal symptom categories. Logistic regression was used to evaluate the risk of Long COVID by HbA1c range, adjusting for demographics, body mass index, comorbidities, and diabetes medication. A COVID-negative group was used as a control.

RESULTS

Among 7430 COVID-positive patients, 1491 (20.1%) developed symptomatic Long COVID, and 380 (5.1%) died. The primary outcome of death or Long COVID was increased in patients with HbA1c 8% to <10% (OR 1.20, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.41) and ≥10% (OR 1.40, 95% CI 1.14 to 1.72) compared with those with HbA1c 6.5% to <8%. This association was not seen in the COVID-negative group. Higher HbA1c levels were associated with increased risk of Long COVID symptoms, especially respiratory and brain fog. There was no association between HbA1c levels and risk of death within 30-180 days following COVID-19. NLP identified more patients with Long COVID symptoms compared with diagnosis codes.

CONCLUSION

Poor glycemic control (HbA1c≥8%) in people with T2D was associated with higher risk of Long COVID symptoms 30-180 days following COVID-19. Notably, this risk increased as HbA1c levels rose. However, this association was not observed in patients with T2D without a history of COVID-19. An NLP-based definition of Long COVID identified more patients than diagnosis codes and should be considered in future studies.

Competing Risks and Their Impact on Treatment Efficacy Assessment in Fractionated Stereotactic Radiotherapy for Brain Metastases: A Retrospective Study

Background and Aims

The Kaplan-Meier (KM) method and competing risk analysis are two statistical approaches for analyzing time-to-event data. These methods differ in their treatment of competing events, such as deaths occurring before the event of interest, which can impact the interpretation of treatment efficacy in oncology.

Methods

This retrospective study included 73 patients who underwent fractionated stereotactic radiotherapy (six fractions of 5 Gy) for brain metastases at the University Hospital Regensburg between January 2017 and December 2021. The events of interest were the cumulative incidences of local failure within the planning target volume and the development of new brain metastases. Premature deaths occurring before the events of interest were treated as competing events. The complement of the KM method (1-KM), which censors patients who die prematurely, was compared to the cumulative incidence function (CIF), which accounts for the fact that patients who die without experiencing the event of interest are no longer at risk for that event.

Results

The median follow-up was 56 months. The most common cancer types were non-small cell lung cancer (n = 26, 35.6%) and malignant melanoma (n = 25, 34.2%). Using CIF, the cumulative incidences of local failure and new brain metastases were 27% and 55% at 24 months, respectively. The 1-KM method overestimated the cumulative incidence of local failure by 9% at 24 months and 14% at 36 months, and new brain metastases by 13% at both 24 and 36 months. Survival curves for 1-KM and CIF showed simultaneous increases for each event, with 1-KM consistently higher, reflecting differing approaches to competing risks.

Conclusion

This study highlights the impact of statistical method selection on clinical data interpretation and underscores the bias inherent in studies that fail to account for competing risks. Recognizing these differences is crucial for accurately assessing treatment outcomes.

Do Danish ICU Survivors Remain Employed After ICU Discharge? A Register-Based Longitudinal Cohort Study

OBJECTIVES

Admission to ICU is associated with long-term consequences for the survivors. The study explores whether Danish ICU survivors remain employed after ICU discharge.

DESIGN

A longitudinal register study of 16,284 Danish ICU survivors 25-67 years old 1:1 sex- and age-matched with general population references. Weekly prevalence proportions (%) of employed, public benefits, and deceased individuals were calculated based on the Danish Register-Based Evaluation and Marginalization Database and the Danish Civil Registration System until December 31, 2019. Age- and multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs were determined by Cox and Fine-Gray models.

SETTING

Denmark has tax-funded healthcare and social security ensuring hospital treatment and social benefits free of charge for all Danish residents.

SUBJECTS

The study included Danish residents acutely admitted to public ICU treatment for critical illness from 2010 to 2018.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

The prevalences of employed ICU survivors increased from 30% at 2-8 weeks to 56% at 52 weeks after ICU discharge showing minor delay in women. The prevalences declined by age being 63%, 58%, 55%, and 52% in ages 25-42, 43-52, 53-58, and 59-63 years, respectively, 52 weeks after ICU discharge. The prevalences of employed ICU survivors declined by level of comorbidity being 64%, 53%, and 37% in ICU survivors of Charlson Comorbidity Index score 0, 1-2, or greater than or equal to 3, respectively, 52 weeks after ICU discharge. ICU survivors had higher risks of becoming retired (HR, 14.86; 95% CI, 8.69-25.41) or sickness absent (HR, 7.56; 95% CI, 7.16-7.98) when accounting for competing risks compared with the general population references.

CONCLUSIONS

About half of ICU survivors remained employed 52 weeks after ICU discharge. Age and comorbidity were effect modifiers.

Risk of Death Due to Melanoma and Other Causes in Patients With Thin Cutaneous Melanomas

Importance

Most patients who present with primary cutaneous melanomas have thin tumors (≤1.0 mm in Breslow thickness, ie, pT1a and pT1b). Although their prognosis is generally considered to be excellent, there is limited precise information on the association of risk of death with specific Breslow measurements in thin lesions.

Objective

To assess the relative effect of a 0.8-mm Breslow thickness threshold with respect to the incidence of both melanoma-related and nonmelanoma-related death.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Registry data for all Australians diagnosed with thin invasive primary melanomas between 1982 and 2014 were analyzed. Data were extracted from all 8 Australian state and territory population-based cancer registries. Dates and causes of death were obtained from the Australian National Death Index. Adults diagnosed with a first invasive primary melanoma of 1.0 mm or smaller in thickness were included.

Exposure

First invasive primary melanoma between 1982 and 2014.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcomes were melanoma-related deaths and nonmelanoma-related deaths. Competing-risk regression analyses and cause-specific analyses were performed to investigate the relationships between Breslow thickness subcategory (<0.8 mm versus ≥0.8 mm by 0.1-mm increments) and the primary outcomes.

Results

Overall, a cohort of 144 447 participants was included. The median (range) age was 56 (18-101) years and 78 014 (54.0%) were men. Median (IQR) follow-up was 15.0 (9.5-23.3) years. Crude incidence rates of melanoma-related death 20 years after diagnosis were 6.3% (95% CI, 6.1%-6.5%) for the whole cohort, 6.0% (95% CI, 5.7%-6.2%) for tumors smaller than 0.8 mm, and 12.0% (95% CI, 11.4%-12.6%) for tumors 0.8 to 1.0 mm. The corresponding 20-year melanoma-specific survival rates were 91.9% (95% CI, 91.6%-92.1%), 94.2% (95% CI, 94.0%-94.4%), and 87.8% (95% CI, 87.3%-88.3%), respectively. On multivariable analysis, tumor thickness of 0.8 to 1.0 mm was significantly associated with both a greater absolute risk of melanoma-related death (subdistribution hazard ratio, 2.92; 95% CI, 2.74-3.12) and a greater rate of melanoma-related death (hazard ratio, 2.98; 95% CI, 2.79-3.18) than thinner tumors (<0.8 mm). Risk of death from nonmelanoma-related causes was not associated with Breslow thickness.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study, the risk of melanoma-related death increased significantly for patients with primary tumors of 0.8 to 1.0 mm in thickness. The risk of death from nonmelanoma-ralated causes was similar across Breslow thicknesses of 0.1 to 1.0 mm. This analysis suggests that a 0.8-mm threshold for guiding the care of patients with thin primary melanomas.

The Role of Urban Residence, Race and Ethnicity, and Glycemic Control in Receiving Standards of Care and Progression to Vision-Threatening Diabetic Retinopathy

OBJECTIVE

Among patients with diabetes living in the U.S. with newly detected mild or moderate nonproliferative diabetic retinopathy (NPDR) without diabetic macular edema (DME), we aimed to characterize determinants for receiving standards of care and progression to vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy (VTDR) (severe NPDR, proliferative diabetic retinopathy, DME).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Electronic health records of patients newly detected with NPDR without DME between 2015 and 2023 were analyzed with use of the Epic Cosmos research platform. We characterized the adjusted associations of urban versus rural residence, race and ethnicity (Hispanic, non-Hispanic [NH] White, NH Black, other), and glycemic control (HbA1c <7.0%, 7.0%-8.9%, ≥9%, unavailable) separately with guideline-recommended care (two of three: ophthalmology visit, primary care visit, and measurement of HbA1c, blood pressure, and LDL cholesterol) in the 2 years after diagnosis and with progression to VTDR.

RESULTS

Average (SD) age for the analytic sample (n = 102,919) was 63 (13.5) years, and 51% were female, 59% NH White, and 7% rural residents. Only 40% received guideline-recommended care, and 14% progressed to VTDR (median follow-up 35 months [interquartile range 18-63]). Urban residence was associated with receiving standards of care in both years (risk ratio 1.08 [95% CI 1.05-1.12]) and progression to VTDR (hazard ratio 1.07 [95% CI 0.99-1.15]). Racial and ethnic minority individulas were more likely to progress to VTDR. Individuals with poor or unknown glycemic control were less likely to receive standards of care and more likely to progress to VTDR.

CONCLUSIONS

Understanding the management and progression of newly detected NPDR will require disentangling the independent and interdependent contributions of geography, race and ethnicity, and glycemia.

Editor's Choice - Bypass versus Angioplasty in Severe Ischaemia of the Leg (BASIL)-2 Trial: Analysis of the Timing and Causes of Death in Participants Randomised to an Infrapopliteal Vein Bypass or Best Endovascular Treatment First Revascularisation Strategy

OBJECTIVE

The Bypass versus Angioplasty in Severe Ischaemia of the Leg (BASIL)-2 trial enrolled participants with chronic limb threatening ischaemia who required an infrapopliteal, with or without a femoropopliteal, revascularisation procedure to restore limb perfusion. Participants randomised to a vein bypass (VB) first revascularisation strategy were over one third more likely than those randomised to a best endovascular treatment (BET) first revascularisation strategy to die from any cause during a median follow up of 40.0 (interquartile range 20.9, 60.6) months. The aim of the present study was to describe the timing and causes of death in BASIL-2 as a first step towards trying to better understand why randomisation to a VB first revascularisation strategy was associated with this excess mortality.

METHODS

A 10 person international panel comprising vascular and endovascular surgeons as well as vascular interventional radiologists, who had all been principal investigators in BASIL-2, took part in a modified Delphi consensus exercise to adjudicate the primary cause of death and, in particular, whether the cause was primarily cardiac or non-cardiac.

RESULTS

In 151 of 168 deaths (89.9%), the Delphi panel achieved a consensus regarding the cause of death being probably cardiac or non-cardiac. In the BET group, 16 of 77 deaths (21%) were classified as probably cardiac compared with 32 of 91 (35%) in the VB group (unadjusted subdistribution hazard ratio 2.16, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.20 - 3.87; unadjusted cause specific hazard ratio 2.15, 95% CI 1.19 - 3.90). At the point of randomisation, 64 of 344 (18.6%), 40 of 342 (11.7%), and 37 of 344 (10.8%) participants had a previous myocardial infarction (MI), percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), and coronary artery bypass graft (CABG), respectively. There was no evidence of varying treatment effects for cause of death in subgroup analyses of previous PCI, CABG, or MI.

CONCLUSION

The excess mortality observed in the VB first revascularisation strategy group in BASIL-2 was largely due to deaths that were adjudicated by the Delphi panel as probably primarily cardiac. These excess cardiac deaths were observed throughout follow up and there was no evidence of non-proportional hazards. Further work is ongoing to try to better understand the reasons for these findings.

Impact of increasing workforce racial diversity on black-white disparities in cardiovascular disease mortality

BACKGROUND

Structural racism's influence on workforce policies and practices presents possible upstream targets for assessing and reducing racial health disparities. This study is the first to examine workforce racial diversity in association with racial disparities in cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study of 39 693 hourly autoworkers from three Michigan automobile plants, includes 75 years of follow-up (1941-2015). Workforce racial diversity (per cent black autoworkers) was a plant and year level variable. Annual exposure was cumulated over each individual's working life and divided by time since hire. This time-varying measure was categorised into low, moderate and high. We estimated age-standardised rates of CVD and Cox proportional HRs by race.

RESULTS

CVD mortality per 100 000 person-years decreased among autoworkers over the study period; however, black workers' rates remained higher than white workers. Among black workers, we observed a strong protective association between greater workforce racial diversity and CVD mortality. For example, at the Detroit plant, the HR for moderate exposure to racial diversity was 0.94 (0.83, 1.08) and dropped to 0.78 (0.67, 0.90) at the highest level. Among white workers, results were mixed by plant, with protective effects in plants where less than 20% of workers were black and null results where black workers became the majority.

CONCLUSION

Our findings provide evidence that workplace racial diversity may reduce CVD mortality risk among black workers. Workplace practices encouraging diverse hiring and retention have potential to improve all workers' health; particularly the socially racialised groups in that workforce.

Cervical Cancer Screening Utilization among Kidney Transplant Recipients, 2001 to 2018

BACKGROUND

Kidney transplant recipients (KTR) have elevated risks of cervical precancers and cancers and guidelines recommend more frequent cervical cancer screening exams. However, little is known about current trends in cervical cancer screening in this unique population. We described patterns in the uptake of cervical cancer screening exams among female KTRs and identified factors associated with screening utilization.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included female KTRs between 20 and 65 years old, with Texas Medicare fee-for-service coverage, who received a transplant between January 1, 2001, and December 31, 2017. We determined the cumulative incidence of receiving cervical cancer screening post-transplant using ICD-9, ICD-10, and CPT codes and assessed factors associated with screening utilization, using the Fine and Gray model to account for competing events. Subdistribution hazard models were used to assess factors associated with screening uptake.

RESULTS

Among 2,653 KTRs meeting the inclusion and exclusion criteria, the 1-, 2-, and 3-year cumulative incidences of initiating a cervical cancer screening exam post-transplant were 31.7% [95% confidence interval (CI), 30.0%-33.6%], 48.0% (95% CI, 46.2%-49.9%), and 58.5% (95% CI, 56.7%-60.3%), respectively. KTRs who were 55 to 64 years old (vs. <45 years old) and those with a higher Charlson Comorbidity Score post-transplant were less likely to receive cervical cancer screening post-transplant.

CONCLUSIONS

Cervical cancer screening uptake is low in the years immediately following a kidney transplant.

IMPACT

Our findings highlight a need for interventions to improve cervical cancer screening utilization among kidney transplant recipients. See related In the Spotlight, p. 1554.

Severity of Inhalation Injury and Risk of Nosocomial Pneumonia: A Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

The impact of inhalation injury on risk of nosocomial pneumonia (NP), an important complication in patients with burns, is not well established.

RESEARCH QUESTION

Is more severe inhalation injury associated with increased risk of NP?

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients with suspected inhalation injury admitted to a regional burn center from 2011 to 2022 who underwent diagnostic bronchoscopy within 48 h of admission. We estimated the association of high-grade inhalation injury (Abbreviated Injury Scale grade 3 and 4) vs low-grade inhalation injury (Abbreviated Injury Scale grade 1 and 2) with NP adjusted for age, burn size, and comorbid obstructive lung disease. Death and hospital discharge were considered competing risks.

RESULTS

Of the 245 patients analyzed, 51 (21%) had high-grade injury, 180 (73%) had low-grade injury, and 14 (6%) had no inhalation injury. Among the 236 patients hospitalized for ≥ 48 h, NP occurred in 24 of 50 patients (48%) in the high-grade group, 54 of 172 patients (31%) in the low-grade group, and two of 14 patients (14%) in the no inhalation injury group. High-grade (vs low-grade) inhalation injury was associated with higher hazard of NP in both the proportional cause-specific hazard model (cause-specific hazard ratio, 2.04; 95% CI, 1.26-3.30; P = .004) and Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard model (subdistribution hazard ratio for NP, 2.24; 95% CI, 1.38-3.64; P = .001).

INTERPRETATION

In this study, among patients with inhalation injury, more severe injury was associated with higher hazard of NP in competing risk analysis. Additional research is needed to investigate mechanisms that may explain the relationship between inhalation injury and NP and to identify more effective risk reduction strategies.

Socioeconomic inequalities in COVID-19 infection and vaccine uptake among children and adolescents in Catalonia, Spain: a population-based cohort study

Introduction

This study aims to investigate the relationship between deprivation, as measured by a socioeconomic deprivation index (SDI) score for census tract urban areas, and COVID-19 infections and vaccine uptake among children and adolescents before and after the vaccination rollout in Catalonia, Spain.

Methods

We conducted a population-based cohort study using primary care records. Individuals were followed 3 months before the start of the vaccination campaign in Spain and 3 months after. Children (5-11 years) and adolescents (12-15 years) with at least 1 year of prior history observation available and without missing deprivation data. For each outcome, we estimated cumulative incidence and crude Cox proportional-hazard models by SDI quintiles, and hazard ratios (HRs) of COVID-19 infection and vaccine uptake relative to the least deprived quintile, Q1.

Results

Before COVID-19 vaccination rollout, 290,625 children and 179,685 adolescents were analyzed. Increased HR of deprivation was associated with a higher risk of COVID-19 infection in both children [Q5: 1.55 (95% CI, 1.47-1.63)] and adolescents [Q5: 1.36 (95% CI, 1.29-1.43)]. After the rollout, this pattern changed among children, with lower risk of infection in more deprived areas [Q5: 0.62 (95% CI, 0.61-0.64)]. Vaccine uptake was higher among adolescents than children, but in both age groups, non-vaccination was more common among those living in more deprived areas (39.3% and 74.6% in Q1 vs. 26.5% and 66.9% in Q5 among children and adolescents, respectively).

Conclusions

Children and adolescents living in deprived areas were at higher risk of COVID-19 non-vaccination. Socioeconomic disparities in COVID-19 infection were also evident before vaccine rollout, with a higher infection risk in deprived areas across age groups. Our findings suggest that changes in the association between deprivation and infections among children after the vaccine rollout were likely due to testing disparities.

Fracture risk assessment in the presence of competing risk of death

PURPOSE

To identify the optimal statistical approach for predicting the risk of fragility fractures in the presence of competing event of death.

METHODS

We used real-world data from the Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study that has monitored 3035 elderly participants for bone health and mortality. Fragility fractures were ascertained radiologically. Mortality was confirmed by the State Registry. We considered four statistical models for predicting fracture risk: (i) conventional Cox's proportional hazard model, (ii) cause-specific model, (iii) Fine-Gray sub-distribution model, and (iv) multistate model. These models were fitted and validated in the development (60% of the original sample) and validation (40%) subsets, respectively. The model performance was assessed by discrimination and calibration analyses.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 11.3 years (IQR: 7.2, 16.2), 628 individuals (34.5%) in the development cohort fractured, and 630 (34.6%) died without a fracture. Neither the discrimination nor the 5-year prediction performance was significantly different among the models, though the conventional model tended to overestimate fracture risk (calibration-in-the-large index =  - 0.24; 95% CI: - 0.43, - 0.06). For 10-year risk prediction, the multistate model (calibration-in-the-large index =  - 0.05; 95% CI: - 0.20, 0.10) outperformed the cause-specific (- 0.23; - 0.30, - 0.08), Fine-Gray (- 0.31; - 0.46, - 0.16), and conventional model (- 0.54; - 0.70, - 0.39) which significantly overestimated fracture risk.

CONCLUSION

Adjustment for competing risk of death has minimum impact on the short-term prediction of fracture. However, the multistate model yields the most accurate prediction of long-term fracture risk and should be considered for predictive research in the elderly, who are also at high mortality risk. Fracture risk assessment might be compromised by the competing event of death. This study, using real-world data found a multistate model was superior to the current competing risk methods in fracture risk assessment. A multistate model is considered an optimal statistical method for predictive research in the elderly.

The inverse association between cancer history and incident cognitive impairment: Addressing attrition bias

INTRODUCTION

Cancer is inversely associated with cognitive impairment. Whether this is due to statistical handling of attrition (death and censoring) is unknown.

METHODS

We quantified associations between cancer history and incident cognitive impairment among Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study participants without baseline cognitive impairment or stroke (n = 2604) using multiple competing-risks models and their corresponding estimands: cause-specific, subdistribution, and marginal hazards, plus composite-outcome (cognitive impairment or all-cause mortality) hazards. All-cause mortality was also modeled.

RESULTS

After covariate adjustment (demographics, apolipoprotein E ε4, lifestyle, health conditions), cause-specific and marginal hazard ratios (HRs) were similar to each other (≈ 0.84; P values < 0.05). The subdistribution HR was 0.764 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.645-0.906), and composite-outcome Cox model HR was 1.149 (95% CI = 1.016-1.299). Cancer history was positively associated with all-cause mortality (HR = 1.813; 95% CI = 1.525-2.156).

DISCUSSION

Cause-specific, subdistribution, and marginal hazards models produced inverse associations between cancer and cognitive impairment. Competing risk models answer slightly different questions, and estimand choice influenced findings here.

HIGHLIGHTS

Cancer history is inversely associated with incident cognitive impairment. Findings were robust to handling of competing risks of death. All models also addressed possible informative censoring bias. Cancer history was associated with 16% lower hazard of cognitive impairment. Cancer history was associated with 81% higher all-cause mortality hazard.

Preventing New Gram-negative Resistance Through Beta-lactam De-escalation in Hospitalized Patients With Sepsis: A Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Whether antibiotic de-escalation reduces the risk of subsequent antibiotic resistance is uncertain. We sought to determine if beta-lactam (BL) antibiotic de-escalation is associated with decreased incidence of new Gram-negative resistance in hospitalized patients with sepsis.

METHODS

In a retrospective cohort study, patients with sepsis who were treated with at least 3 consecutive days of BL antibiotics, the first 2 days of which were with a broad-spectrum BL agent defined as a spectrum score (SS) of ≥7 were enrolled. Patients were grouped into three categories: (1) de-escalation of beta-lactam spectrum score (BLSS), (2) no change in BLSS, or (3) escalation of BLSS. The primary outcome was the isolation of a new drug-resistant Gram-negative bacteria from a clinical culture within 60 days of cohort entry. Fine-Gray proportional hazards regression modeling while accounting for in-hospital death as a competing risk was performed.

FINDINGS

Six hundred forty-four patients of 7742 (8.3%) patients developed new gram-negative resistance. The mean time to resistance was 23.7 days yielding an incidence rate of 1.85 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.71-2.00) per 1000 patient-days. The lowest incidence rate was observed in the de-escalated group 1.42 (95% CI: 1.16-1.68) per 1000 patient-days. Statistically significant reductions in the development of new gram-negative resistance were associated with BL de-escalation compared to no-change (hazards ratio (HR) 0.59 [95% CI: .48-.73]).

CONCLUSIONS

De-escalation was associated with a decreased risk of new resistance development compared to no change. This represents the largest study to date showing the utility of de-escalation in the prevention of antimicrobial resistance.

How to develop, validate, and update clinical prediction models using multinomial logistic regression

OBJECTIVES

Multicategory prediction models (MPMs) can be used in health care when the primary outcome of interest has more than two categories. The application of MPMs is scarce, possibly due to added methodological complexities compared to binary outcome models. We provide a guide of how to develop, validate, and update clinical prediction models based on multinomial logistic regression.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We present guidance and recommendations based on recent methodological literature, illustrated by a previously developed and validated MPM for treatment outcomes in rheumatoid arthritis. Prediction models using multinomial logistic regression can be developed for nominal outcomes, but also for ordinal outcomes. This article is intended to supplement existing general guidance on prediction model research.

RESULTS

This guide is split into three parts: 1) outcome definition and variable selection, 2) model development, and 3) model evaluation (including performance assessment, internal and external validation, and model recalibration). We outline how to evaluate and interpret the predictive performance of MPMs. R code is provided.

CONCLUSION

We recommend the application of MPMs in clinical settings where the prediction of a multicategory outcome is of interest. Future methodological research could focus on MPM-specific considerations for variable selection and sample size criteria for external validation.

Vein bypass first vs. best endovascular treatment first revascularisation strategy for chronic limb-threatening ischaemia due to infra-popliteal disease: the BASIL-2 RCT

Background

Chronic limb-threatening ischaemia with ischaemic pain and/or tissue loss.

Objective

To examine the clinical and cost-effectiveness of a vein bypass-first compared to a best endovascular treatment-first revascularisation strategy in preventing major amputation or death.

Design

Superiority, open, pragmatic, multicentre, phase III randomised trial.

Setting

Thirty-nine vascular surgery units in the United Kingdom, and one each in Sweden and Denmark.

Participants

Patients with chronic limb-threatening ischaemia due to atherosclerotic peripheral arterial disease who required an infra-popliteal revascularisation, with or without an additional more proximal infra-inguinal revascularisation procedure, to restore limb perfusion.

Interventions

A vein bypass-first or a best endovascular treatment-first infra-popliteal, with or without an additional more proximal infra-inguinal revascularisation strategy.

Main outcome measures

The primary outcome was amputation-free survival. Secondary outcomes included overall survival, major amputation, further revascularisation interventions, major adverse limb event, health-related quality of life and serious adverse events.

Methods

Participants were randomised to a vein bypass-first or a best endovascular treatment-first revascularisation strategy. The original sample size of 600 participants (247 events) was based on a hazard ratio of 0.66 with amputation-free survival rates of 0.72, 0.62, 0.53, 0.47 and 0.35 in years 1-5 in the best endovascular treatment-first group with 90% power and alpha at p = 0.05. The sample size was revised to an event-based approach as a result of increased follow-up time due to slower than anticipated recruitment rates. Participants were followed up for a minimum of 2 years. A cost-effectiveness analysis was employed to estimate differences in total hospital costs and amputation-free survival between the groups. Additionally, a cost-utility analysis was carried out and the total cost and quality-adjusted life-years, 2 and 3 years after randomisation were used.

Results

Between 22 July 2014 and 30 November 2020, 345 participants were randomised, 172 to vein bypass-first and 173 to best endovascular treatment-first. Non-amputation-free survival occurred in 108 (63%) of 172 patients in the vein bypass-first group and 92 (53%) of 173 patients in the best endovascular treatment-first group [adjusted hazard ratio 1.35 (95% confidence interval 1.02 to 1.80); p = 0.037]. Ninety-one (53%) of 172 patients in the vein bypass-first group and 77 (45%) of 173 patients in the best endovascular treatment-first group died [adjusted hazard ratio 1.37 (95% confidence interval 1.00 to 1.87)]. Over follow-up, the economic evaluation discounted results showed that best endovascular treatment-first was associated with £1690 less hospital costs compared to vein bypass-first. The cost utility analysis showed that compared to vein bypass-first, best endovascular treatment-first was associated with £224 and £2233 less discounted hospital costs and 0.016 and 0.085 discounted quality-adjusted life-year gain after 2 and 3 years from randomisation.

Limitations

Recruiting patients to the Bypass versus Angioplasty in Severe Ischaemia of the Leg Trial-2 trial was difficult and the target number of events was not achieved.

Conclusions

A best endovascular treatment-first revascularisation strategy was associated with better amputation-free survival, which was largely driven by fewer deaths. Overall, the economic evaluation results suggest that best endovascular treatment-first dominates vein bypass-first in the cost-effectiveness analysis and cost-utility analysis as it was less costly and more effective than a vein bypass-first strategy.

Future work

The Bypass versus Angioplasty in Severe Ischaemia of the Leg Trial-2 investigators have a data sharing agreement with the BEst Surgical Therapy in patients with Chronic Limb threatening Ischaemia investigators. One output of this collaboration will be an individual patient data meta-analysis.

Study registration

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN27728689.

Funding

This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (NIHR award ref: 12/35/45) and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 28, No. 65. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Racial/ethnic disparities in all-cause and cause-specific death among children with malignant central nervous system tumours: a registry-based cohort retrospective analysis

Background

It is generally recognized that there is unequal mortality in childhood central nervous system (CNS) malignancy in the United States (US), but little is known about the trends and contributors of racial/ethnic disparities in death. We assessed the trends of racial/ethnic disparities in all-cause and cause-specific death, and the contributions of tumour, treatment and socioeconomic factors to this disparity.

Methods

This registry-based cohort study included children (aged ≤19 years) diagnosed with malignant CNS tumours, using data from the US population-based cancer registry in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program. The clinical outcomes were all-cause and cause-specific death for each racial/ethnic group (White, Black, Hispanic, non-Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islander [API], and non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Native [AI/AN] children). We quantified absolute disparities using absolute rate difference in 5-year cumulative incidence of death. Cox proportion risk models were used to estimate the relative racial/ethnic disparities, and the contribution of factors to disparities in death.

Findings

In this study, data from 14,510 children with malignant CNS tumours (mean [SD] age, 8.5 [5.7]; 7988 [55.1%] male) were analysed. Overall, the cumulative incidence of death from CNS tumours across four racial/ethnic groups decreased from 2001 to 2020. Black patients had the highest risk of death from all causes and CNS tumours between 2001 and 2020, with adjusted hazard ratios (HR) of 1.52 (1.38-1.68) and 1.47 (1.31-1.64), respectively. The absolute disparity in all-cause death between Hispanic and White patients increased slightly (from 8.2 percentage points [ppt] to 9.4 ppt), and the relative disparity in death from CNS tumours increased from 1.33 (1.15-1.55) in 2001-2005 to 1.78 (1.44-2.20) in 2016-2020. The absolute disparities in death from CNS tumours between Black and White patients (from 11.8 ppt to 4.3 ppt) and between API and White patients (from 10.1 ppt to 5.1 ppt) decreased from 2001-2005 to 2011-2015.

Interpretation

Race/ethnicity disparities in death from CNS tumours among childhood malignant CNS tumours had reduced from 2001 to 2020, and quantifying the contribution of factors to this disparity in death could provide a basis for decreasing mortality among racial/ethnic minority patients.

Funding

Shenyang Young and Middle-aged Science and Technology Innovation Talent Support Program.

The impact of emergency guidance to the COVID-19 pandemic on treatment entry, retention and mortality among patients on methadone in Ukraine

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Ukraine's Ministry of Health released urgent COVID-19 guidelines, allowing for early implementation of take-home dosing (THD) for opioid agonist therapies (OAT) such as methadone. Enrollment in OAT and retention in the program are the most effective HIV prevention strategies for people who inject drugs (PWID). This study aimed to evaluate the impact of Ukraine's COVID-19 emergency guidance on OAT treatment enrollment, retention on treatment and mortality.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Using Ukraine's national OAT registry for 252 governmental clinics across 25 regions, we conducted a 12-month comparative prospective cohort survival analysis. This study compared newly enrolled methadone patients within the initial 6 months following the COVID-19 guidance (COVID) with patients from the preceding year (pre-COVID) in a country with high adult HIV prevalence (1.2%) that is concentrated in PWID.

PARTICIPANTS

In the nation-wide sample of newly enrolled PWID in Ukraine, comprising 2798 individuals, 1423 were in the COVID cohort and 1375 were in the pre-COVID cohort. The majority were male (86.7%), with an average age of 39.3 years.

MEASUREMENTS

Primary outcomes were average monthly enrollment per cohort, treatment retention and mortality, with internal time-dependent predictors, including THD and optimal (> 85 mg) methadone dosing.

RESULTS

Relative to the pre-COVID period, the monthly average patient enrollment was statistically significantly higher during the COVID period (283.7 versus 236.0; P < 0.0001), where patients were more likely to transition to THD and achieve optimal dosing earlier. Significant differences were observed in the proportions of person-months on THD (41 versus 13%, P < 0.0001) and optimal dosing (38 versus 31%, P < 0.0001) between the COVID and pre-COVID cohorts. Predictors of treatment retention, expressed as adjusted hazard ratios (aHR), included early THD [aHR = 1.90, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.47-2.45], early optimal dosing (aHR = 1.71, 95% CI = 1.37-2.13) and prior methadone treatment (aHR = 1.39, 95% CI = 1.15-1.68). These factors persisted, respectively, in the pre-COVID (aHR = 2.28, 95% CI = 1.41-3.70; aHR = 1.84, 95% CI = 1.32-2.56; and aHR = 1.36, 95% CI = 1.06-1.74) and COVID (aHR = 1.91, 95% CI = 1.40-2.59; aHR = 1.61, 95% CI = 1.20-2.16; and aHR = 1.49, 95% CI = 1.08-1.94) cohorts. Survival did not differ significantly between the two prospective cohorts.

CONCLUSION

Ukraine's prompt adoption of early take-home dosing for opioid agonist therapies, such as methadone, following the emergency COVID-19 guidance appears to have increased enrollment into methadone and improved treatment retention for people who inject drugs without adverse effects on patient survival.

Sex Differences in Trends in Stroke Recurrence and Postrecurrence Mortality 2000-2020: Population-Based Brain Attack Surveillance in Corpus Christi Project

OBJECTIVE

This study was undertaken to delineate 21-year sex-specific trends in recurrence and postrecurrence mortality.

METHODS

Between 2000 and 2020, first-ever ischemic stroke (IS) patients, ascertained from the population-based BASIC (Brain Attack Surveillance in Corpus Christi) project in South Texas, were followed for recurrent stroke and all-cause mortality until December 31, 2020. Multivariable regression models with an interaction between calendar year and sex were used to estimate sex-specific trends and sex differences in recurrence and postrecurrence mortality.

RESULTS

Of the 6,057 IS patients (median age = 69 years, 49.8% women), 654 (10.8%) had a recurrence and 399 (47.7%) had postrecurrence mortality during 5 years of follow-up. In 2000, women had 2.5% higher albeit non-statistically significant 5-year risk of recurrence than men in absolute scale. With the trend declining in women by 7.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] = -10.8 to -4.5%) and in men by 3.6% (95% CI = -6.5% to -0.7%), the risk at the end of the study period was 1.5% (95% CI = -0.3% to 3.6%) lower among women than men. For postrecurrence mortality, the risk was 10.2% lower among women in 2000, but the sex difference was 3.3% by the end of the period, which was due to a larger overall increase in the risk among women than men over the entire time period.

INTERPRETATION

The declines in recurrent stroke suggest successful secondary stroke prevention, especially in women. However, the continued high postrecurrence mortality among both sexes at the end of study period emphasizes the need for ongoing interventions to improve prognosis in those who have had recurrent cerebrovascular events. ANN NEUROL 2024;96:332-342.

Pitfalls in time-to-event analysis of registry data: a tutorial based on simulated and real cases

Survival analysis (also referred to as time-to-event analysis) is the study of the time elapsed from a starting date to some event of interest. In practice, these analyses can be challenging and, if methodological errors are to be avoided, require the application of appropriate techniques. By using simulations and real-life data based on the French national registry of patients with primary immunodeficiencies (CEREDIH), we sought to highlight the basic elements that need to be handled correctly when performing the initial steps in a survival analysis. We focused on non-parametric methods to deal with right censoring, left truncation, competing risks, and recurrent events. Our simulations show that ignoring these aspects induces a bias in the results; we then explain how to analyze the data correctly in these situations using non-parametric methods. Rare disease registries are extremely valuable in medical research. We discuss the application of appropriate methods for the analysis of time-to-event from the CEREDIH registry. The objective of this tutorial article is to provide clinicians and healthcare professionals with better knowledge of the issues facing them when analyzing time-to-event data.

Multimorbidity clusters potentially superior to individual diseases for stratifying fracture risk in older people: a nationwide cohort study

RATIONALE

Comorbidities are common in fracture patients, but the interaction between fracture and comorbidities remains unclear. This study aimed to define specific multimorbidity clusters in older adults and quantify the association between the multimorbidity clusters and fracture risk.

METHODS

This nationwide cohort study includes 1.7 million adults in Denmark aged ≥50 years who were followed from 2001 through 2014 for an incident low-trauma fracture. Chronic diseases and fractures were identified from the Danish National Hospital Discharge Register. Latent class analysis and Cox's regression were conducted to define the clusters and quantify fracture risk, respectively.

RESULTS

The study included 793 815 men (age: 64 ± 10) and 873 524 women (65.5 ± 11), with a third having ≥1 chronic disease. The pre-existent chronic diseases grouped individuals into low-multimorbidity (80.3% in men, 83.6% in women), cardiovascular (12.5%, 10.6%), malignant (4.1%, 3.8%), diabetic (2.4%, 2.0%) and hepatic clusters (0.7%, men only). These clusters distinguished individuals with advanced, complex, or late-stage disease from those having earlier-stage disease. During a median follow-up of 14 years (IQR: 6.5, 14), 95 372 men and 212 498 women sustained an incident fracture. The presence of multimorbidity was associated with a significantly greater risk of fracture, independent of age and sex. Importantly, the multimorbidity clusters had the highest discriminative performance in assessing fracture risk, whereas the strength of their association with fracture risk equalled or exceeded that of both the individual chronic diseases most prevalent in each cluster and of counts-based comorbidity indices.

CONCLUSIONS

Future fracture prevention strategies should take comorbidities into account. Multimorbidity clusters may provide greater insight into fracture risk than individual diseases or counts-based comorbidity indices.

Transfers from home to facility-based dialysis: comparisons of HHD, assisted PD and autonomous PD

Background

Home dialysis therapies such as peritoneal dialysis (PD) and home hemodialysis (HHD) are beneficial for quality of life and patient empowerment. The short technique survival time partly explains their low prevalence. We aimed to assess the risk of transfer to facility-based hemodialysis in patients treated with autonomous PD, assisted PD and HHD.

Methods

This was a retrospective study using data from the REIN registry of patients starting home dialysis in France from 2002 to 2019. The risks of transfer to facility-based hemodialysis (HD) were compared between three modalities of home dialysis (HHD, nurse-assisted PD, autonomous PD) using survival models with a propensity score (PS)-matched and unmatched cohort of patients.

Results

The study included 17 909 patients: 628 in the HHD group, 10 214 in the autonomous PD group, and 7067 in the assisted PD group. During the follow-up period, there were 5347 transfers to facility-based HD. The observed number of transfers was 2458 (13.7%) at 1 year and 5069 (28.3) at 5 years after the start of home dialysis, including 3272 (32%) on autonomous PD, 1648 (23.3%) on assisted PD, and 149 (23.7) on HHD. Owing to clinical characteristics differences, only 38% of HHD patients could be matched to patients from the others group. In the PS-matched cohort, the adjusted Cox model showed no difference in the risk of transfer for assisted PD (cs-HR 1.04, 95% CI 0.75-1.44) or HHD (cs-HR 1.07, 95% CI 0.77-1.48) compared with autonomous PD.

Conclusions

Unlike results from other countries, where nurse assistance is not fully available for PD-associated care, there was no difference in technique survival between autonomous PD, nurse-assisted PD, and HHD in France. This discrepancy may be attributed to our inclusion of a broader spectrum of patients who derive significant benefits from assisted PD.

Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against severe COVID-19 among patients with cancer in Catalonia, Spain

Patients with cancer were excluded from pivotal randomized clinical trials of COVID-19 vaccine products, and available observational evidence on vaccine effectiveness (VE) focused mostly on mild, and not severe COVID-19, which is the ultimate goal of vaccination for high-risk groups. Here, using primary care electronic health records from Catalonia, Spain (SIDIAP), we built two large cohorts of vaccinated and matched control cancer patients with a primary vaccination scheme (n = 184,744) and a booster (n = 108,534). Most patients received a mRNA-based product in primary (76.2%) and booster vaccination (99.9%). Patients had 51.8% (95% CI 40.3%-61.1%) and 58.4% (95% CI 29.3%-75.5%) protection against COVID-19 hospitalization and COVID-19 death respectively after full vaccination (two-doses) and 77.9% (95% CI 69.2%-84.2%) and 80.2% (95% CI 63.0%-89.4%) after booster. Compared to primary vaccination, the booster dose provided higher peak protection during follow-up. Calibration of VE estimates with negative outcomes, and sensitivity analyses with slight different population and COVID-19 outcomes definitions provided similar results. Our results confirm the role of primary and booster COVID-19 vaccination in preventing COVID-19 severe events in patients with cancer and highlight the need for the additional dose in this population.

Survival analysis for AdVerse events with VarYing follow-up times (SAVVY): summary of findings and assessment of existing guidelines

BACKGROUND

The SAVVY project aims to improve the analyses of adverse events (AEs) in clinical trials through the use of survival techniques appropriately dealing with varying follow-up times and competing events (CEs). This paper summarizes key features and conclusions from the various SAVVY papers.

METHODS

Summarizing several papers reporting theoretical investigations using simulations and an empirical study including randomized clinical trials from several sponsor organizations, biases from ignoring varying follow-up times or CEs are investigated. The bias of commonly used estimators of the absolute (incidence proportion and one minus Kaplan-Meier) and relative (risk and hazard ratio) AE risk is quantified. Furthermore, we provide a cursory assessment of how pertinent guidelines for the analysis of safety data deal with the features of varying follow-up time and CEs.

RESULTS

SAVVY finds that for both, avoiding bias and categorization of evidence with respect to treatment effect on AE risk into categories, the choice of the estimator is key and more important than features of the underlying data such as percentage of censoring, CEs, amount of follow-up, or value of the gold-standard.

CONCLUSIONS

The choice of the estimator of the cumulative AE probability and the definition of CEs are crucial. Whenever varying follow-up times and/or CEs are present in the assessment of AEs, SAVVY recommends using the Aalen-Johansen estimator (AJE) with an appropriate definition of CEs to quantify AE risk. There is an urgent need to improve pertinent clinical trial reporting guidelines for reporting AEs so that incidence proportions or one minus Kaplan-Meier estimators are finally replaced by the AJE with appropriate definition of CEs.

Associations of Urine and Plasma Metabolites With Kidney Failure and Death in a Chronic Kidney Disease Cohort

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE

Biomarkers that enable better identification of persons with chronic kidney disease (CKD) who are at higher risk for disease progression and adverse events are needed. This study sought to identify urine and plasma metabolites associated with progression of kidney disease.

STUDY DESIGN

Prospective metabolome-wide association study.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

Persons with CKD enrolled in the GCKD (German CKD) study with metabolite measurements, with external validation within the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) Study.

EXPOSURES

1,513 urine and 1,416 plasma metabolites (Metabolon Inc) measured at study entry using untargeted mass spectrometry.

OUTCOMES

Main end points were kidney failure (KF) and a composite kidney end point (CKE) of KF, estimated glomerular filtration rate<15mL/min/1.73m2, or a 40% decrease in estimated glomerular filtration rate. Death from any cause was a secondary end point. After a median of 6.5 years of follow-up, 500 persons had experienced KF, 1,083 had experienced the CKE, and 680 had died.

ANALYTICAL APPROACH

Time-to-event analyses using multivariable proportional hazard regression models in a discovery-replication design with external validation.

RESULTS

5,088 GCKD study participants were included in analyses of urine metabolites, and 5,144 were included in analyses of plasma metabolites. Among 182 unique metabolites, 30 were significantly associated with KF, 49 with the CKE, and 163 with death. The strongest association with KF was observed for plasma hydroxyasparagine (HR, 1.95; 95% CI, 1.68-2.25). An unnamed metabolite measured in plasma and urine was significantly associated with KF, the CKE, and death. External validation of the identified associations of metabolites with KF or the CKE revealed directional consistency for 88% of observed associations. Selected associations of 18 metabolites with study outcomes have not been previously reported.

LIMITATIONS

Use of observational data and semiquantitative metabolite measurements at a single time point.

CONCLUSIONS

The observed associations between metabolites and KF, the CKE, or death in persons with CKD confirmed previously reported findings and also revealed several associations not previously described. These findings warrant confirmatory research in other study cohorts.

PLAIN-LANGUAGE SUMMARY

Incomplete understanding of the variability of chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression motivated the search for new biomarkers that would help identify people at increased risk. We explored metabolites in plasma and urine for their association with unfavorable kidney outcomes or death in persons with CKD. Metabolomic analyses revealed 182 metabolites significantly associated with CKD progression or death. Many of these associations confirmed previously reported findings or were validated by analysis in an external study population. Our comprehensive screen of the metabolome serves as a valuable foundation for future investigations into biomarkers associated with CKD progression.

Heterogeneity in meta-analysis: a comprehensive overview

In recent years, meta-analysis has evolved to a critically important field of Statistics, and has significant applications in Medicine and Health Sciences. In this work we briefly present existing methodologies to conduct meta-analysis along with any discussion and recent developments accompanying them. Undoubtedly, studies brought together in a systematic review will differ in one way or another. This yields a considerable amount of variability, any kind of which may be termed heterogeneity. To this end, reports of meta-analyses commonly present a statistical test of heterogeneity when attempting to establish whether the included studies are indeed similar in terms of the reported output or not. We intend to provide an overview of the topic, discuss the potential sources of heterogeneity commonly met in the literature and provide useful guidelines on how to address this issue and to detect heterogeneity. Moreover, we review the recent developments in the Bayesian approach along with the various graphical tools and statistical software that are currently available to the analyst. In addition, we discuss sensitivity analysis issues and other approaches of understanding the causes of heterogeneity. Finally, we explore heterogeneity in meta-analysis for time to event data in a nutshell, pointing out its unique characteristics.

Approximate reciprocal relationship between two cause-specific hazard ratios in COVID-19 data with mutually exclusive events

COVID-19 survival data presents a special situation where not only the time-to-event period is short, but also the two events or outcome types, death and release from hospital, are mutually exclusive, leading to two cause-specific hazard ratios (csHR d and csHR r ). The eventual mortality/release outcome is also analyzed by logistic regression to obtain odds-ratio (OR). We have the following three empirical observations: (1) The magnitude of OR is an upper limit of the csHR d : |log(OR)| ≥ |log(csHR d )|. This relationship between OR and HR might be understood from the definition of the two quantities; (2) csHR d and csHR r point in opposite directions: log(csHR d ) ⋅ log(csHR r ) < 0; This relation is a direct consequence of the nature of the two events; and (3) there is a tendency for a reciprocal relation between csHR d and csHR r : csHR d ∼ 1/csHR r . Though an approximate reciprocal trend between the two hazard ratios is in indication that the same factor causing faster death also lead to slow recovery by a similar mechanism, and vice versa, a quantitative relation between csHR d and csHR r in this context is not obvious. These results may help future analyses of data from COVID-19 or other similar diseases, in particular if the deceased patients are lacking, whereas surviving patients are abundant.

Is social deprivation associated with the peritoneal dialysis outcomes? A cohort study with REIN registry data

BACKGROUND

Social deprivation is associated with lower peritoneal dialysis (PD) uptake. This study was carried out to evaluate the role of social deprivation on the outcome of PD.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study of data extracted from the Renal Epidemiology and Information Network registry for patients older than 18 years who started PD in metropolitan France between 1 January 2017 and 30 June 2018. The end of the observation period was 31 December 2020. The exposure was the European Deprivation Index calculated using the patient's address. The events of interest were death, transfer to haemodialysis (HD), transplantation and the composite event of death or transfer to HD. A Cox model and Fine and Gray model were used for the analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 1581 patients were included, of whom 418 (26.5%) belonged to Quintile 5 of the European Deprivation Index (the most deprived patients). In the Cox model, the most deprived subjects did not have a greater risk of death (cause-specific hazard ratio (cs-HR): 0.76 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.53-1.10], transfer to HD (cs-HR 1.37 [95% CI: 0.95-1.98]) or the composite event of death or transfer to HD (cs-HR: 1.08 [95% CI: 0.84-1.38]) or a lower risk of kidney transplantation (cs-HR: 0.73 [95% CI: 0.48-1.10]). In the competing risk analysis, the most deprived subjects had a higher risk of transfer to HD (subdistribution hazard ratio (sd-HR): 1.54 [95% CI: 1.08-2.19]) and lower access to kidney transplantation (sd-HR: 0.68 [0.46-0.99]).

CONCLUSION

In PD patients, social deprivation was not associated with death or the composite event of death or transfer to HD. Socially deprived individuals had a greater risk of transfer to HD and lower access to kidney transplantation in the competing risk analysis.

Risk of fractures and use of bisphosphonates in adult patients with immune thrombocytopenia-A nationwide population-based study

Corticosteroids remain the first-line treatment of immune thrombocytopenia (ITP), but increase the risk of osteoporosis and fractures. Bisphosphonates are used for the treatment of osteoporosis, but their usage among patients with ITP has not been systemically described. We investigated the risk of fractures and the use of bisphosphonates in adult patients with primary (pITP) and secondary ITP (sITP) compared with matched comparators in a nationwide registry-based cohort study. We identified 4030 patients with pITP (median age 60 years [IQR, 40-74]), 550 with sITP (median age 59 years [IQR, 43-74]) and 182 939 age-sex-matched general population comparators. All individuals were followed for incident fractures. Bisphosphonate use was estimated for calendar-years and in temporal relation to the ITP diagnosis. Adjusted cause-specific hazard ratio (csHR) for any fracture was 1.37 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.23; 1.54) for pITP and 1.54 (1.17; 2.03) for sITP. The first-year csHR was 1.82 (1.39; 2.40) for pITP and 2.78 (1.58; 4.91) for sITP. Bisphosphonate use over calendar-years and in the early years following ITP diagnosis was higher among patients with ITP diagnosis compared with the general population. In conclusion, the risk of fractures and the use of bisphosphonates are higher in patients with ITP compared with the general population.

Impact of mental disorders on unplanned readmissions for congestive heart failure patients: a population-level study

AIMS

Reducing preventable hospitalization for congestive heart failure (CHF) patients is a challenge for health systems worldwide. CHF patients who also have a recent or ongoing mental disorder may have worse health outcomes compared with CHF patients with no mental disorders. This study examined the impact of mental disorders on 28 day unplanned readmissions of CHF patients.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This retrospective cohort study used population-level linked public and private hospitalization and death data of adults aged ≥18 years who had a CHF admission in New South Wales, Australia, between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2020. Individuals' mental disorder diagnosis and Charlson comorbidity and hospital frailty index scores were derived from admission records. Competing risk and cause-specific risk analyses were conducted to examine the impact of having a mental disorder diagnosis on all-cause hospital readmission. Of the 65 861 adults with index CHF admission discharged alive (mean age: 78.6 ± 12.1; 48% female), 19.2% (12 675) had at least one unplanned readmission within 28 days following discharge. Adults with CHF with a mental disorder diagnosis within 12 months had a higher risk of 28 day all-cause unplanned readmission [hazard ratio (HR): 1.21, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.15-1.27, P-value < 0.001], particularly those with anxiety disorder (HR: 1.49, 95% CI: 1.35-1.65, P-value < 0.001). CHF patients aged ≥85 years (HR: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.11-1.28), having ≥3 other comorbidities (HR: 1.35, 95% CI: 1.25-1.46), and having an intermediate (HR: 1.34, 95% CI: 1.28-1.40) or high (HR: 1.37, 95% CI: 1.27-1.47) frailty score on admission had a higher risk of unplanned readmission. CHF patients with a mental disorder who have ≥3 other comorbidities and an intermediate frailty score had the highest probability of unplanned readmission (29.84%, 95% CI: 24.68-35.73%) after considering other patient-level factors and competing events.

CONCLUSIONS

CHF patients who had a mental disorder diagnosis in the past 12 months are more likely to be readmitted compared with those without a mental disorder diagnosis. CHF patients with frailty and a mental disorder have the highest probability of readmission. Addressing mental health care services in CHF patient's discharge plan could potentially assist reduce unplanned readmissions.

Mortality and disability risk among older adults unable to complete grip strength and physical performance tests: a population-based cohort study from China

BACKGROUND

The link between low grip strength, diminished physical performance, and adverse health outcomes in older adults has been well-established. However, the impact of older adults who cannot complete these tests on disability and mortality rates remains unexplored without longitudinal study.

METHODS

We collected data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). Participants aged 60-101 were enrolled at baseline. We analyzed the prevalence of populations unable to complete handgrip strength (HGS), gait speed (GS), and five times chair stand test (FTCST). Completing risk models were used to estimate the risk of mortality and disability over seven years.

RESULTS

A total of 3,768 participants were included in the analysis. The percentage of older adults unable to complete the GS and FTCST tests increased notably with age, from 2.68 to 8.90% and 2.60-20.42%, respectively. The proportion of older people unable to perform the HGS was relatively stable, ranging from 1.40 to 3.66%. Compared to older adults who can complete these tests, those who cannot perform FTCST face a significantly higher risk of mortality, with 49.1% higher risk [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.491, 95% CI = 1.156, 1.922; subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR) = 1.491, 95%CI = 1.135,1.958)]. Participants who were unable to complete the GS test had a higher risk of developing ADL disability, regardless of whether they were compared to the lowest-performing group (HR = 1.411, 95%CI = 1.037,1.920; SHR = 1.356, 95%CI = 1.030,1.785) or those who can complete the GS (HR = 1.727, 95%CI = 1.302,2.292; SHR = 1.541, 95%CI = 1.196,1.986). No statistically significant difference in the risk of developing ADL disability among older adults who were unable to complete the HGS test compared with either the poorest performing group (HR = 0.982, 95% CI = 0.578, 1.666; SHR = 1.025, 95% CI = 0.639, 1.642) or those who were able to complete the HGS test (HR = 1.008, 95% CI = 0.601, 1.688; SHR = 0.981, 95% CI = 0.619, 1.553). The risk of all-cause mortality was not significantly different for older adults who were unable to complete the HGS test compared to those with the worst performance (HR = 1.196, 95%CI = 0.709-2.020; SHR = 1.196, 95%CI = 0.674, 2.124) or those who were able to complete the test (HR = 1.462, 95%CI = 0.872-2.450; SHR = 1.462, 95%CI = 0.821,2.605).

CONCLUSION

The risks of adverse events faced by older adults unable to complete the tests vary, indicating the necessity for future research to conduct separate analyses on this high-risk population.

Clinical Outcomes After Revision Hip Arthroplasty due to Prosthetic Joint Infection-A Single-Center Study of 369 Hips at a High-Volume Center With a Minimum of One Year Follow-Up

BACKGROUND

Prosthetic joint infection (PJI) treatment decisions are traditionally based on treatment algorithms. There is, however, a lack of evidence to support the choice of these treatment algorithms. Therefore, we aimed to assess the one-year survival after PJI revision and compared different surgical strategies in a single-center setting.

METHODS

Revisions of the hip due to PJI performed at our institution between January 2008 and September 2021 with at least one-year of follow-up were identified. In total, 134 debridement, antibiotics, and implant retentions (DAIRs), 114 one-stage revisions, and 121 two-stage revisions were performed. Infections were classified as early, acute hematogenous, and chronic. Survival was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method and cumulative incidence function. Predictors of outcomes were examined with Fine-Gray regressions and Cox proportional hazards regressions. Subdistribution hazard ratios and hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated.

RESULTS

At one-year follow-up, 26.6% (CI 22.2 to 31.2%) of the patients had undergone reoperation and 7.9% (CI 5.4 to 10.9%) had died. The risk for reoperation was highest after DAIR (36.6%, CI 28.5 to 44.7%) and lowest after one-stage revision (20.2%, CI 13.4 to 28%). Within the early infections, the one-stage revision almost halved the risk of reoperation (HR 0.51, CI 0.31 to 0.84) with no added mortality risk (HR 1.05, CI 0.5 to 2.2), when compared to DAIR.

CONCLUSION

By utilizing 1-stage revision over DAIR in early infections, it might be possible to improve the prognosis by decreasing the risk of reoperation without increasing mortality. However, as the patient selection is undeniably difficult, more research is warranted.

Primary autoimmune haemolytic anaemia is associated with increased risk of ischaemic stroke: A binational cohort study from Denmark and France

Primary autoimmune haemolytic anaemia (AIHA) causes the destruction of red blood cells and a subsequent pro-thrombotic state, potentially increasing the risk of ischaemic stroke. We investigated the risk of ischaemic stroke in patients with AIHA in a binational study. We used prospectively collected data from nationwide registers in Denmark and France to identify cohorts of patients with primary AIHA and age- and sex-matched general population comparators. We followed the patient and comparison cohorts for up to 5 years, with the first hospitalization of a stroke during follow-up as the main outcome. We estimated cumulative incidence, cause-specific hazard ratios (csHR) and adjusted for comorbidity and exposure to selected medications. The combined AIHA cohorts from both countries comprised 5994 patients and the 81 525 comparators. There were 130 ischaemic strokes in the AIHA cohort and 1821 among the comparators. Country-specific estimates were comparable, and the overall adjusted csHR was 1.36 [95% CI: 1.13-1.65], p = 0.001; the higher rate was limited to the first year after AIHA diagnosis (csHR 2.29 [95% CI: 1.77-2.97], p < 10-9 ) and decreased thereafter (csHR 0.89 [95% CI: 0.66-1.20], p = 0.45) (p-interaction < 10-5 ). The findings indicate that patients diagnosed with primary AIHA are at higher risk of ischaemic stroke in the first year after diagnosis.

A review on statistical and machine learning competing risks methods

When modeling competing risks (CR) survival data, several techniques have been proposed in both the statistical and machine learning literature. State-of-the-art methods have extended classical approaches with more flexible assumptions that can improve predictive performance, allow high-dimensional data and missing values, among others. Despite this, modern approaches have not been widely employed in applied settings. This article aims to aid the uptake of such methods by providing a condensed compendium of CR survival methods with a unified notation and interpretation across approaches. We highlight available software and, when possible, demonstrate their usage via reproducible R vignettes. Moreover, we discuss two major concerns that can affect benchmark studies in this context: the choice of performance metrics and reproducibility.

New-onset syncope in diabetic patients treated with sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors versus dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors: a Chinese population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Syncope is a symptom that poses an important diagnostic and therapeutic challenge, and generates significant cost for the healthcare system. Sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) have demonstrated beneficial cardiovascular effects, but their possible effects on incident syncope have not been fully investigated. This study compared the effects of SGLT2i and dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP4i) on new-onset syncope.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This was a retrospective, territory-wide cohort study enrolling type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients treated with SGLT2i or DPP4i between 1 January 2015 and 31 December 2020, in Hong Kong, China. The outcomes were hospitalization of new-onset syncope, cardiovascular mortality, and all-cause mortality. Multivariable Cox regression and different approaches using the propensity score were applied to evaluate the association between SGLT2i and DPP4i with incident syncope and mortality. After matching, a total of 37 502 patients with T2DM were included (18 751 SGLT2i users vs. 18 751 DPP4i users). During a median follow-up of 5.56 years, 907 patients were hospitalized for new-onset syncope (2.41%), and 2346 patients died from any cause (6.26%), among which 471 deaths (1.26%) were associated with cardiovascular causes. Compared with DPP4i users, SGLT2i therapy was associated with a 51% lower risk of new-onset syncope [HR 0.49; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.41-0.57; P < 0.001], 65% lower risk of cardiovascular mortality (HR 0.35; 95% CI 0.26-0.46; P < 0.001), and a 70% lower risk of all-cause mortality (HR 0.30; 95% CI 0.26-0.34; P < 0.001) in the fully adjusted model. Similar associations with syncope were observed for dapagliflozin (HR 0.70; 95% CI 0.58-0.85; P < 0.001), canagliflozin (HR 0.48; 95% CI 0.36-0.63; P < 0.001), and ertugliflozin (HR 0.45; 95% CI 0.30-0.68; P < 0.001), but were attenuated for empagliflozin (HR 0.79; 95% CI 0.59-1.05; P = 0.100) after adjusting for potential confounders. The subgroup analyses suggested that, compared with DPP4i, SGLT2i was associated with a significantly decreased risk of incident syncope among T2DM patients, regardless of gender, age, glucose control status, Charlson comorbidity index, and the association remained constant amongst those with common cardiovascular drugs and most antidiabetic drugs at baseline.

CONCLUSION

Compared with DPP4i, SGLT2i was associated with a significantly lower risk of new-onset syncope in patients with T2DM, regardless of gender, age, degree of glycaemic control, and comorbidity burden.

Developing and externally validating multinomial prediction models for methotrexate treatment outcomes in patients with rheumatoid arthritis: results from an international collaboration

OBJECTIVES

In rheumatology, there is a clinical need to identify patients at high risk (>50%) of not responding to the first-line therapy methotrexate (MTX) due to lack of disease control or discontinuation due to adverse events (AEs). Despite this need, previous prediction models in this context are at high risk of bias and ignore AEs. Our objectives were to (i) develop a multinomial model for outcomes of low disease activity and discontinuing due to AEs 6 months after starting MTX, (ii) update prognosis 3-month following treatment initiation, and (iii) externally validate these models.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

A multinomial model for low disease activity (submodel 1) and discontinuing due to AEs (submodel 2) was developed using data from the UK Rheumatoid Arthritis Medication Study, updated using landmarking analysis, internally validated using bootstrapping, and externally validated in the Norwegian Disease-Modifying Antirheumatic Drug register. Performance was assessed using calibration (calibration-slope and calibration-in-the-large), and discrimination (concordance-statistic and polytomous discriminatory index).

RESULTS

The internally validated model showed good calibration in the development setting with a calibration-slope of 1.01 (0.87, 1.14) (submodel 1) and 0.83 (0.30, 1.34) (submodel 2), and moderate discrimination with a c-statistic of 0.72 (0.69, 0.74) and 0.53 (0.48, 0.59), respectively. Predictive performance decreased after external validation (calibration-slope 0.78 (0.64, 0.93) (submodel 1) and 0.86 (0.34, 1.38) (submodel 2)), which may be due to differences in disease-specific characteristics and outcome prevalence.

CONCLUSION

We addressed previously identified methodological limitations of prediction models for outcomes of MTX therapy. The multinomial approach predicted outcomes of disease activity more accurately than AEs, which should be addressed in future work to aid implementation into clinical practice.

The importance of considering competing risks in recurrence analysis of intracranial meningioma

BACKGROUND

The risk of recurrence is overestimated by the Kaplan-Meier method when competing events, such as death without recurrence, are present. Such overestimation can be avoided by using the Aalen-Johansen method, which is a direct extension of Kaplan-Meier that accounts for competing events. Meningiomas commonly occur in older individuals and have slow-growing properties, thereby warranting competing risk analysis. The extent to which competing events are considered in meningioma literature is unknown, and the consequences of using incorrect methodologies in meningioma recurrence risk analysis have not been investigated.

METHODS

We surveyed articles indexed on PubMed since 2020 to assess the usage of competing risk analysis in recent meningioma literature. To compare recurrence risk estimates obtained through Kaplan-Meier and Aalen-Johansen methods, we applied our international database comprising ~ 8,000 patients with a primary meningioma collected from 42 institutions.

RESULTS

Of 513 articles, 169 were eligible for full-text screening. There were 6,537 eligible cases from our PERNS database. The discrepancy between the results obtained by Kaplan-Meier and Aalen-Johansen was negligible among low-grade lesions and younger individuals. The discrepancy increased substantially in the patient groups associated with higher rates of competing events (older patients with high-grade lesions).

CONCLUSION

The importance of considering competing events in recurrence risk analysis is poorly recognized as only 6% of the studies we surveyed employed Aalen-Johansen analyses. Consequently, most of the previous literature has overestimated the risk of recurrence. The overestimation was negligible for studies involving low-grade lesions in younger individuals; however, overestimation might have been substantial for studies on high-grade lesions.

Long-term outcomes of young, node-negative, chemotherapy-naïve, triple-negative breast cancer patients according to BRCA1 status

BACKGROUND

Due to the abundant usage of chemotherapy in young triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) patients, the unbiased prognostic value of BRCA1-related biomarkers in this population remains unclear. In addition, whether BRCA1-related biomarkers modify the well-established prognostic value of stromal tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (sTILs) is unknown. This study aimed to compare the outcomes of young, node-negative, chemotherapy-naïve TNBC patients according to BRCA1 status, taking sTILs into account.

METHODS

We included 485 Dutch women diagnosed with node-negative TNBC under age 40 between 1989 and 2000. During this period, these women were considered low-risk and did not receive chemotherapy. BRCA1 status, including pathogenic germline BRCA1 mutation (gBRCA1m), somatic BRCA1 mutation (sBRCA1m), and tumor BRCA1 promoter methylation (BRCA1-PM), was assessed using DNA from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissue. sTILs were assessed according to the international guideline. Patients' outcomes were compared using Cox regression and competing risk models.

RESULTS

Among the 399 patients with BRCA1 status, 26.3% had a gBRCA1m, 5.3% had a sBRCA1m, 36.6% had tumor BRCA1-PM, and 31.8% had BRCA1-non-altered tumors. Compared to BRCA1-non-alteration, gBRCA1m was associated with worse overall survival (OS) from the fourth year after diagnosis (adjusted HR, 2.11; 95% CI, 1.18-3.75), and this association attenuated after adjustment for second primary tumors. Every 10% sTIL increment was associated with 16% higher OS (adjusted HR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.78-0.90) in gBRCA1m, sBRCA1m, or BRCA1-non-altered patients and 31% higher OS in tumor BRCA1-PM patients. Among the 66 patients with tumor BRCA1-PM and ≥ 50% sTILs, we observed excellent 15-year OS (97.0%; 95% CI, 92.9-100%). Conversely, among the 61 patients with gBRCA1m and < 50% sTILs, we observed poor 15-year OS (50.8%; 95% CI, 39.7-65.0%). Furthermore, gBRCA1m was associated with higher (adjusted subdistribution HR, 4.04; 95% CI, 2.29-7.13) and tumor BRCA1-PM with lower (adjusted subdistribution HR, 0.42; 95% CI, 0.19-0.95) incidence of second primary tumors, compared to BRCA1-non-alteration.

CONCLUSIONS

Although both gBRCA1m and tumor BRCA1-PM alter BRCA1 gene transcription, they are associated with different outcomes in young, node-negative, chemotherapy-naïve TNBC patients. By combining sTILs and BRCA1 status for risk classification, we were able to identify potential subgroups in this population to intensify and optimize adjuvant treatment.

Communicating and understanding statistical measures when quantifying the between-group difference in competing risks

Competing risks issues are common in clinical trials and epidemiological studies for patients in follow-up who may experience a variety of possible outcomes. Under such competing risks, two hazard-based statistical methods, cause-specific hazard (CSH) and subdistribution hazard (SDH), are frequently used to assess treatment effects among groups. However, the outcomes of the CSH-based and SDH-based methods have a close connection with the proportional hazards (CSH or SDH) assumption and may have an non-intuitive interpretation. Recently, restricted mean time lost (RMTL) has been used as an alternative summary measure for analysing competing risks, due to its clinical interpretability and robustness to the proportional hazards assumption. Considering the above approaches, we summarize the differences between hazard-based and RMTL-based methods from the aspects of practical interpretation, proportional hazards model assumption and the selection of restricted time points, and propose corresponding suggestions for the analysis of between-group differences under competing risks. Moreover, an R package 'cRMTL' and corresponding step-by-step guidance are available to help users for applying these approaches.

Accounting for Competing Events When Evaluating Long-Term Outcomes in Survivors of Critical Illness

The clinical trajectory of survivors of critical illness after hospital discharge can be complex and highly unpredictable. Assessing long-term outcomes after critical illness can be challenging because of possible competing events, such as all-cause death during follow-up (which precludes the occurrence of an event of particular interest). In this perspective, we explore challenges and methodological implications of competing events during the assessment of long-term outcomes in survivors of critical illness. In the absence of competing events, researchers evaluating long-term outcomes commonly use the Kaplan-Meier method and the Cox proportional hazards model to analyze time-to-event (survival) data. However, traditional analytical and modeling techniques can yield biased estimates in the presence of competing events. We present different estimands of interest and the use of different analytical approaches, including changes to the outcome of interest, Fine and Gray regression models, cause-specific Cox proportional hazards models, and generalized methods (such as inverse probability weighting). Finally, we provide code and a simulated dataset to exemplify the application of the different analytical strategies in addition to overall reporting recommendations.

Exploring the relationship between baseline health-related quality of life (AQoL-4D utility values) and mortality during long-term follow-up for people living with a psychotic disorder

Holistic summary measures of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) could provide useful information for screening and/or monitoring high-risk individuals. This study explores the association of baseline HRQoL (AQoL-4D values) with death from natural and external causes (such as suicide, overdose, or accident) in a prevalent cohort over a mean follow-up of 6.9-years. Baseline data were obtained from the 2010 National Survey of High Impact Psychosis (SHIP) and its 2012 sister survey, the North-Metro Survey of High Impact Psychosis. Follow-up data were obtained from the National Deaths Index (to January 18, 2018). Associations between baseline HRQoL (and the 12 individual items of the AQoL-4D) and deaths by cause, stratified by sex were investigated using multivariable Cox Proportional Hazards models, with age used as the time scale. Overall, 7.6 % of the cohort (137 of 1805 people meeting ICD-10 criteria for a psychotic disorder and agreeing to linkage) died, 4.2 % from natural causes (primarily heart disease and cancer) and 3.4 % from external causes. There was an association between low HRQoL (AQoL-4D ≤ 0.20) and mortality due to natural causes, primarily driven by difficulties with mobility and vision in men, and difficulty with household tasks in women. No significant associations were obtained between AQoL-4D utilities and death from external causes. Sleep problems were associated with death from external causes for men only. As people with psychotic disorders experience multiple causes of death with complex associations which are difficult to quantify, monitoring for low HRQoL using the AQoL-4D could be a useful indicator of increased mortality risk in this population. TWITTER: Monitoring for low HRQoL (AQoL-4D ≤ 0.20) could be a useful indicator of increased mortality risk from natural causes in people living with psychotic disorders, with differing but specific items of relevance to men and women.

Weighing risks and benefits in the presence of competing risks

Purpose of Review

When competing events occur, there are two main options for handling them analytically that invoke different assumptions: 1) censor person-time after a competing event (which is akin to assuming they could be prevented) to calculate a conditional risk; or 2) do not censor them (allow them to occur) to calculate an unconditional risk. The choice of estimand has implications when weighing the relative frequency of a beneficial outcome and an adverse outcome in a risk-benefit analysis.

Recent findings

We review the assumptions and interpretations underlying the two main approaches to analyzing competing risks. Using a popular metric in risk-benefit analyses, the Benefit-Risk Ratio, and a toy dataset, we demonstrated that conclusions about whether a treatment was more beneficial or more harmful can depend on whether one uses conditional or unconditional risks.

Summary

We argue that unconditional risks are more relevant to decision-making about exposures with competing outcomes than conditional risks.

Clinical outcomes during and beyond different COVID-19 critical illness variant periods compared with other lower respiratory tract infections

BACKGROUND

It is yet to be better understood how outcomes during and after the critical illness potentially differ between severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants from other lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs). We aimed to compare outcomes in adults admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) during the Wild-type, Alpha, Delta, and Omicron periods with individuals admitted with other LRTI.

METHODS

Population-based cohort study in Stockholm, Sweden, using health registries with high coverage, including ICU-admitted adults from 1 January 2016 to 15 September 2022. Outcomes were in-hospital mortality, 180-day post-discharge mortality, 180-day hospital readmission, 180-day days alive and at home (DAAH), and incident diagnoses registered during follow-up.

RESULTS

The number of ICU admitted individuals were 1421 Wild-type, 551 Alpha, 190 Delta, 223 Omicron, and 2380 LRTI. In-hospital mortality ranged from 28% (n = 665) in the LRTI cohort to 35% (n = 77) in the Delta cohort. The adjusted cause-specific hazard ratio (CSHR) compared with the LRTI cohort was 1.33 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.16-1.53) in the Wild-type cohort, 1.53 (1.28-1.82) in the Alpha cohort, 1.70 (1.30-2.24) in the Delta cohort, and 1.59 (1.24-2.02) in the Omicron cohort. Among patients discharged alive from their COVID-19 hospitalization, the post-discharge mortality rates were lower (1-3%) compared with the LRTI cohort (9%), and the risk of hospital readmission was lower (CSHRs ranging from 0.42 to 0.68). Moreover, all COVID-19 cohorts had compared with the LRTI cohort more DAAH after compared with before the critical illness.

CONCLUSION

Overall, COVID-19 critical was associated with an increased hazard of in-hospital mortality, but among those discharged alive from the hospital, less severe long-term outcomes were observed compared with other LRTIs.

Cancer mortality and competing causes of death in older adults with cancer: A prospective, multicentre cohort study (ELCAPA-19)

BACKGROUND

In older patients with cancer, comorbidities compete with cancer for cause of death. The objectives were to evaluate cancer mortality and factors associated, according to metastatic status.

METHODS

Between 2007 and 2014, patients with cancer aged ≥70 referred for pre-therapeutic geriatric assessment (GA) were included through the ELCAPA prospective cohort study. The underlying cause of death was defined according to the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision. The World Health Organisation definition was used to categorise the cause of death as cancer versus another disease (e.g. cardiovascular disease, infectious disease, etc.) Competing risk models were used.

RESULTS

Mean (SD) age of the 1445 included patients was 80.2 (5.8) and 48% were women. Most common tumour sites were colorectal (19%), breast (17%) and urinary (15%); 773 patients (49%) had metastases. After a 34-month median follow-up, 706 cancer deaths were observed among 843 deaths. The 6-month and 3-year cancer mortality rates (95% CI) were 12% (9-15) and 34% (29-38) for non-metastatic patients and 43% (39-47) and 79% (75-82) for metastatic patients, respectively. Dependency in activities of daily living and comorbidities were associated with 6-month and 3-year cancer mortality in non-metastatic (adjusted subhazard ratio [aSHR] = 1.68 [0.99-2.85] and 1.69 [1.16-2.45]; and 1.98 [1.08-3.63] and 3.38 [1.47-7.76], respectively) and metastatic patients (aSHR = 2.81 [2.01-3.93] and 2.95 [2.14-4.07]; and 1.63 [1.18-2.25] and 2.06 [1.39-3.05], respectively). Impaired Timed-Get-Up-and-Go test was associated with 6-month and 3-year cancer mortality in metastatic patients (aSHR = 1.5 [1.06-2.12] and 1.38 [1.06-1.81], respectively). Obesity was negatively associated with 3-year cancer death in non-metastatic (aSHR = 0.53 [0.29-0.97]) and metastatic patients (aSHR = 0.71 [0.51-1.00]).

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of older adults with cancer referred for pre-therapeutic GA die from cancer. Geriatric parameters are independently associated with cancer mortality and should be considered for prognosis assessment, decision-making and care.

Prevention of Hip Fractures: Trade-off between Minor Benefits to Individuals and Large Benefits to the Community

Goeffrey Rose postulated that a population-based measure bringing a small benefit to each individual can yield large benefits to the community. We aimed to test this axiom by quantifying the relationship between change in bone mineral density (BMD) and hip fracture incidence between two prospective cohorts separated by ~10 years. In this prospective population-based Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study (DOES), the participants aged 60+ were recruited in two waves: the initial cohort (1311 women, 842 men) in 1989 to 1992 and the second cohort (974 women, 544 men) in 1999 to 2001. The incident hip fracture was radiologically ascertained. Femoral neck BMD was measured biannually. Multivariable-adjusted Cox's proportional hazards models were adjusted for the predefined covariates such as age, BMI, lifestyle factors, falls, and prior fracture. Compared with the initial cohort, the second cohort had a higher femoral neck BMD by ~0.04 g/cm2 in women and 0.03 g/cm2 in men. However, the prevalence of osteoporosis in the second cohort was halved (prevalence ratio 0.51, 95% CI 0.36 to 0.73 in women; 0.45, 0.24 to 0.84 in men), and its hip fracture incidence was significantly reduced (hazard ratio 0.54, 95% CI, 0.38 to 0.78 in women; 0.39, 0.19 to 0.80 in men). Sensitivity analyses indicated that the "effect" was unlikely due to unmeasured confounders. These findings suggest that a population-wide strategy aimed at enhancing BMD across the entire population could lead to a substantial decrease in the incidence of hip fractures. © 2023 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Causes of death in women with breast cancer: a risks and rates study on a population-based cohort

Introduction

The increasing survival of patients with breast cancer has prompted the assessment of mortality due to all causes of death in these patients. We estimated the absolute risks of death from different causes, useful for health-care planning and clinical prediction, as well as cause-specific hazards, useful for hypothesis generation on etiology and risk factors.

Materials and methods

Using data from population-based cancer registries we performed a retrospective study on a cohort of women diagnosed with primary breast cancer. We carried out a competing-cause analysis computing cumulative incidence functions (CIFs) and cause-specific hazards (CSHs) in the whole cohort, separately by age, stage and registry area.

Results

The study cohort comprised 12,742 women followed up for six years. Breast cancer showed the highest CIF, 13.71%, and cardiovascular disease was the second leading cause of death with a CIF of 3.60%. The contribution of breast cancer deaths to the CIF for all causes varied widely by age class: 89.25% in women diagnosed at age <50 years, 72.94% in women diagnosed at age 50-69 and 48.25% in women diagnosed at age ≥70. Greater CIF variations were observed according to stage: the contribution of causes other than breast cancer to CIF for all causes was 73.4% in women with stage I disease, 42.9% in stage II-III and only 13.2% in stage IV. CSH computation revealed temporal variations: in women diagnosed at age ≥70 the CSH for breast cancer was equaled by that for cardiovascular disease and "other diseases" in the sixth year following diagnosis, and an early peak for breast cancer was identified in the first year following diagnosis. Among women aged 50-69 we identified an early peak for breast cancer followed by a further peak near the second year of follow-up. Comparison by geographic area highlighted conspicuous variations: the highest CIF for cardiovascular disease was more than 70% higher than the lowest, while for breast cancer the highest CIF doubled the lowest.

Conclusion

The integrated interpretation of absolute risks and hazards suggests the need for multidisciplinary surveillance and prevention using community-based, holistic and well-coordinated survivorship care models.

An integrated gene-to-outcome multimodal database for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is the commonest cause of chronic liver disease worldwide and represents an unmet precision medicine challenge. We established a retrospective national cohort of 940 histologically defined patients (55.4% men, 44.6% women; median body mass index 31.3; 32% with type 2 diabetes) covering the complete MASLD severity spectrum, and created a secure, searchable, open resource (SteatoSITE). In 668 cases and 39 controls, we generated hepatic bulk RNA sequencing data and performed differential gene expression and pathway analysis, including exploration of gender-specific differences. A web-based gene browser was also developed. We integrated histopathological assessments, transcriptomic data and 5.67 million days of time-stamped longitudinal electronic health record data to define disease-stage-specific gene expression signatures, pathogenic hepatic cell subpopulations and master regulator networks associated with adverse outcomes in MASLD. We constructed a 15-gene transcriptional risk score to predict future hepatic decompensation events (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.86, 0.81 and 0.83 for 1-, 3- and 5-year risk, respectively). Additionally, thyroid hormone receptor beta regulon activity was identified as a critical suppressor of disease progression. SteatoSITE supports rational biomarker and drug development and facilitates precision medicine approaches for patients with MASLD.