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Cordiner R, Wan K, Hajat S, Macintyre HL. Accounting for adaptation when projecting climate change impacts on health: A review of temperature-related health impacts. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2024; 188:108761. [PMID: 38788417 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2024.108761] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/24/2024] [Revised: 05/17/2024] [Accepted: 05/18/2024] [Indexed: 05/26/2024]
Abstract
Exposure to high and low ambient temperatures can cause harm to human health. Due to global warming, heat-related health effects are likely to increase substantially in future unless populations adapt to living in a warmer world. Adaptation to temperature may occur through physiological acclimatisation, behavioural mechanisms, and planned adaptation. A fundamental step in informing responses to climate change is understanding how adaptation can be appropriately accounted for when estimating future health burdens. Previous studies modelling adaptation have used a variety of methods, and it is often unclear how underlying assumptions of adaptation are made and if they are based on evidence. Consequently, the most appropriate way to quantitatively model adaptation in projections of health impacts is currently unknown. With increasing interest from decisionmakers around implementation of adaptation strategies, it is important to consider the role of adaptation in anticipating future health burdens of climate change. To address this, a literature review using systematic scoping methods was conducted to document the quantitative methods employed by studies projecting future temperature-related health impacts under climate change that also consider adaptation. Approaches employed in studies were coded into methodological categories. Categories were discussed and refined between reviewers during synthesis. Fifty-nine studies were included and grouped into eight methodological categories. Methods of including adaptation in projections have changed over time with more recent studies using a combination of approaches or modelling adaptation based on specific adaptation strategies or socioeconomic conditions. The most common approaches to model adaptation are heat threshold shifts and reductions in the exposure-response slope. Just under 20% of studies were identified as using an intervention-based empirical basis for statistical assumptions. Including adaptation in projections considerably reduced the projected temperature-mortality burden in the future. Researchers should ensure that all future impact assessments include adaptation uncertainty in projections and assumptions are based on empirical evidence.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rhiannon Cordiner
- Centre for Climate and Health Security, UK Health Security Agency, 10 South Colonnade, Canary Wharf, London E14 4PU, England.
| | - Kai Wan
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1H 9SH, England.
| | - Shakoor Hajat
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1H 9SH, England.
| | - Helen L Macintyre
- Centre for Climate and Health Security, UK Health Security Agency, 10 South Colonnade, Canary Wharf, London E14 4PU, England; School of Geography Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT, England.
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Goers S, Kapeller R, Schneider F, Dirschmid D, Ludwig R. Regional economic costs of climate change: An interdisciplinary impact assessment for Upper Austria. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2023; 345:118634. [PMID: 37515881 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118634] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/17/2023] [Revised: 07/05/2023] [Accepted: 07/12/2023] [Indexed: 07/31/2023]
Abstract
Region-specific meteorological data show that Upper Austria will mainly be affected by increasing temperatures (up to +2.7 °C in 2050) and decreasing precipitation (up to - 27 mm in 2050). Using an interdisciplinary framework, we derive climatic developments and quantify the resulting direct sectoral and macroeconomic impacts for Upper Austria. Based on a set of climate change indicators, sectoral damages are monetized for selected impact chains in forestry, health, agriculture, space heating and cooling, and winter tourism. These damage costs are used as input for ex-ante simulations to quantify the macroeconomic impacts in 2022-2050. The results show an annual decline in gross regional product, accompanied by an annual decline in employment. This study provides a basis for decision making in Upper Austria, as well as in regions with comparable geographical, economic or demographic structures, and highlights the importance of region-specific climate change adaptation strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sebastian Goers
- Energieinstitut at the Johannes Kepler Universität, Department of Energy Economics, Altenberger Straße 69, Linz, A-4040, Austria.
| | - Rudolf Kapeller
- Energieinstitut at the Johannes Kepler Universität, Department of Energy Economics, Altenberger Straße 69, Linz, A-4040, Austria.
| | - Friedrich Schneider
- Energieinstitut at the Johannes Kepler Universität, Department of Energy Economics, Altenberger Straße 69, Linz, A-4040, Austria.
| | - Dominik Dirschmid
- Ludwig-Maximilians-University, Department of Geography, Munich, Luisenstraße 37, 80333, München, Germany.
| | - Ralf Ludwig
- Ludwig-Maximilians-University, Department of Geography, Munich, Luisenstraße 37, 80333, München, Germany.
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Diz-Mellado E, López-Cabeza VP, Rivera-Gómez C, Galán-Marín C. Performance evaluation and users' perception of courtyards role in indoor areas of mediterranean social housing. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2023; 345:118788. [PMID: 37633103 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118788] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/01/2023] [Revised: 07/18/2023] [Accepted: 08/09/2023] [Indexed: 08/28/2023]
Abstract
Cities confront two critical challenges: general overheating and inefficient use of energy resources within their housing buildings, both adversely affecting urban citizens' daily lives. To mitigate these issues, passive techniques offer promising solutions on enhancing building comfort levels from a sustainable approach. Although this energy efficiency of air-conditioning systems in buildings in warm climates has been extensively analysed, the influence of the microclimate of transitional spaces attached to them on this performance has not yet been properly assessed. Investigating the potential benefits of the implementation of courtyards within Seville's social housing infrastructure for passive conditioning purposes is one way of reducing this research gap. Furthermore, the study also includes the subjective perception of users' thermal well-being around these spaces and their own social relationship related to their use. The work relies on detailed data analyses carried out using DesignBuilder software to quantify the benefit effectively accrued from courtyard utilization. Concurrently, user surveys conducted help determine perceived thermal comfort aiding better configuration management and passive design strategies of urban social housing. Findings from monitoring and simulation reveal that courtyards work faultlessly as a highly effective and efficient passive cooling system whilst promoting energy efficiency up to 20,5%. Surveys confirmed these findings with data revealing significant improvements in thermal comforts perception inside courtyards and within indoor spaces adjacent to the courtyards. This research provides novel insights into how architects and urban managers might integrate passive strategies into future designs for optimizing comfort levels in social housing using courtyards as one possible environmental measure for achieving sustainability targets.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eduardo Diz-Mellado
- Departamento de Construcciones Arquitectónicas 1, Escuela Técnica Superior de Arquitectura, Universidad de Sevilla, Avda. Reina Mercedes, 2, 41012, Seville, Spain.
| | - Victoria Patricia López-Cabeza
- Departamento de Construcciones Arquitectónicas 1, Escuela Técnica Superior de Arquitectura, Universidad de Sevilla, Avda. Reina Mercedes, 2, 41012, Seville, Spain
| | - Carlos Rivera-Gómez
- Departamento de Construcciones Arquitectónicas 1, Escuela Técnica Superior de Arquitectura, Universidad de Sevilla, Avda. Reina Mercedes, 2, 41012, Seville, Spain
| | - Carmen Galán-Marín
- Departamento de Construcciones Arquitectónicas 1, Escuela Técnica Superior de Arquitectura, Universidad de Sevilla, Avda. Reina Mercedes, 2, 41012, Seville, Spain
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Krüger EL, Nedel AS, Dos Santos Gomes AC, Lúcio PS. Analyzing the relationship between air temperature and respiratory morbidity in children and the elderly in Porto Alegre, Brazil, before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2023; 67:1461-1475. [PMID: 37438577 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-023-02516-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/20/2023] [Revised: 06/07/2023] [Accepted: 06/29/2023] [Indexed: 07/14/2023]
Abstract
The aim of the study was to analyze the relationship between air temperature data against hospital admissions due to respiratory diseases of children (under five years of age) and the elderly (over 65) in subtropical Porto Alegre, Brazil, comparing outcomes for 3 sequential years, 2018-2020, pre- and post-COVID 19 pandemic. Meteorological and hospital admission (HA) data for Porto Alegre, marked by a Koeppen-Geiger's Cfa climate type with well-defined seasons, were used in the analyses. HA was obtained for respiratory diseases (J00-99, according to the International Classification of Diseases, ICD-10) from the Brazilian DATASUS (Unified Health System database). We performed correlation analysis between variables (HA versus air temperature and heat stress) in order to identify existing relationships and lag effects (between meteorological condition and morbidity). Relative risk (RR) was also obtained for the two age groups during the three years. Results showed that the pandemic year disrupted observed patterns of association between analyzed variables, with either very low or non-existent correlations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eduardo L Krüger
- Departamento de Construção Civil, Universidade Tecnológica Federal do Paraná - UTFPR/Campus Curitiba - Sede Ecoville, Rua Deputado Heitor Alencar Furtado, 4900, Curitiba, 81280-340, Brazil.
| | - Anderson Spohr Nedel
- Faculdade de Agronomia, Universidade Federal da Fronteira Sul (UFFS), Cerro Largo, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil
| | | | - Paulo S Lúcio
- Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas e Climáticas, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN), Natal, Brazil
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Mikulčić H, Wang X, Duić N, Dewil R. Climate crisis and recent developments in bio-based restoration of ecosystems. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2023; 332:117417. [PMID: 36739775 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117417] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/18/2023] [Accepted: 01/28/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Over the years, due to the climate crisis, sustainable economic growth and biodiversity protection have been increasingly promoted. Scientists, researchers, and experts in the field of sustainable development highlighted that bio-based restoration of ecosystems and responsible management of existing resources are needed to meet the needs of future generations. This paper discusses some of the latest developments in three main areas of sustainability, i.e., energy, water and environment, that emerged from the "16th Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems Conference - SDEWES 2021". The purpose of this introduction article is to briefly review the articles included in this Virtual Special Issue. As such, it acts as an editorial paper for the virtual special issue of the Journal of Environmental Management, dedicated to the SDEWES 2021 conference.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hrvoje Mikulčić
- MOE Key Laboratory of Thermo-Fluid Science and Engineering, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, 710049, China; University of Zagreb, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture, Ivana Lučića 5, 10000, Zagreb, Croatia.
| | - Xuebin Wang
- MOE Key Laboratory of Thermo-Fluid Science and Engineering, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, 710049, China.
| | - Neven Duić
- University of Zagreb, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture, Ivana Lučića 5, 10000, Zagreb, Croatia.
| | - Raf Dewil
- KU Leuven, Department of Chemical Engineering, Process and Environmental Technology Lab, Jan De Nayerlaan 5, 2860, Sint-Katelijne-Waver, Belgium; University of Oxford, Department of Engineering Science, Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3PJ, United Kingdom.
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Kamel Boulos MN, Wilson JP. Geospatial techniques for monitoring and mitigating climate change and its effects on human health. Int J Health Geogr 2023; 22:2. [PMID: 36707823 PMCID: PMC9883899 DOI: 10.1186/s12942-023-00324-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 01/11/2023] [Indexed: 01/28/2023] Open
Abstract
This article begins by briefly examining the multitude of ways in which climate and climate change affect human health and wellbeing. It then proceeds to present a quick overview of how geospatial data, methods and tools are playing key roles in the measurement, analysis and modelling of climate change and its effects on human health. Geospatial techniques are proving indispensable for making more accurate assessments and estimates, predicting future trends more reliably, and devising more optimised climate change adaptation and mitigation plans.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maged N. Kamel Boulos
- Co-Chair, WG III/9 Geospatial Environment and Health Analytics, ISPRS Technical Commission III, 30167 Hannover, Germany ,grid.9983.b0000 0001 2181 4263School of Medicine, University of Lisbon, 1649-028 Lisbon, Portugal
| | - John P. Wilson
- grid.42505.360000 0001 2156 6853Spatial Sciences Institute, Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089-0374 USA
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