Models estimating risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with alcohol or NAFLD-related cirrhosis for risk stratification

Advancing Surveillance Strategies for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A New Era of Efficacy and Precision

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the few cancers with a 5-year survival that has remained below 20%; however, prognosis differs by tumor stage at diagnosis. Curative treatment options among patients with early-stage HCC afford a median survival of 5-10 years. Accordingly, international society guidelines recommend semi-annual HCC surveillance in at-risk patients, including those with cirrhosis or high-risk chronic hepatitis B infection. Surveillance is associated with increased early-stage HCC detection and curative treatments, leading to reduced HCC-related mortality. Abdominal ultrasound has been the cornerstone for HCC surveillance for the past two decades, but recent data have highlighted its suboptimal sensitivity for early-stage HCC detection, particularly in patients with obesity and those with non-viral etiologies of liver disease. The combination of ultrasound plus alpha fetoprotein (AFP) has higher sensitivity for early-stage HCC detection than ultrasound alone, although the combination still misses over one-third of HCC at an early stage. Emerging imaging and blood-based biomarker strategies have promising data in biomarker phase 2 (case-control) and phase 3 (cohort) studies. Beyond ultrasound, Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is the best-studied imaging strategy, with superior sensitivity and specificity compared to ultrasound in a cohort study. Abbreviated MRI protocols have been proposed to address concerns about MRI radiological capacity, costs, and patient acceptance. Of biomarker strategies, GALAD (a panel including gender, age, AFP, AFP-L3, and DCP) is the best validated, with promising sensitivity for early-stage HCC detection in a national multi-center cohort study. Liquid biopsy biomarkers, including methylated DNA markers, have also shown promising accuracy in case-control studies. Abbreviated MRI and GALAD are now entering prospective trials that examine clinical outcomes such as early-stage HCC detection and screening-related harms, which are essential data to understand for adoption in clinical practice. As additional surveillance strategies become available, it will allow an era of precision surveillance in which optimal surveillance modalities are tailored to individual patient risk and expected test performance.

EASL-EASD-EASO Clinical Practice Guidelines on the management of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD)

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), previously termed non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), is defined as steatotic liver disease (SLD) in the presence of one or more cardiometabolic risk factor(s) and the absence of harmful alcohol intake. The spectrum of MASLD includes steatosis, metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH, previously NASH), fibrosis, cirrhosis and MASH-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This joint EASL-EASD-EASO guideline provides an update on definitions, prevention, screening, diagnosis and treatment for MASLD. Case-finding strategies for MASLD with liver fibrosis, using non-invasive tests, should be applied in individuals with cardiometabolic risk factors, abnormal liver enzymes, and/or radiological signs of hepatic steatosis, particularly in the presence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) or obesity with additional metabolic risk factor(s). A stepwise approach using blood-based scores (such as FIB-4) and, sequentially, imaging techniques (such as transient elastography) is suitable to rule-out/in advanced fibrosis, which is predictive of liver-related outcomes. In adults with MASLD, lifestyle modification - including weight loss, dietary changes, physical exercise and discouraging alcohol consumption - as well as optimal management of comorbidities - including use of incretin-based therapies (e.g. semaglutide, tirzepatide) for T2D or obesity, if indicated - is advised. Bariatric surgery is also an option in individuals with MASLD and obesity. If locally approved and dependent on the label, adults with non-cirrhotic MASH and significant liver fibrosis (stage ≥2) should be considered for a MASH-targeted treatment with resmetirom, which demonstrated histological effectiveness on steatohepatitis and fibrosis with an acceptable safety and tolerability profile. No MASH-targeted pharmacotherapy can currently be recommended for the cirrhotic stage. Management of MASH-related cirrhosis includes adaptations of metabolic drugs, nutritional counselling, surveillance for portal hypertension and HCC, as well as liver transplantation in decompensated cirrhosis.

Early warning of hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhotic patients by three-phase CT-based deep learning radiomics model: a retrospective, multicentre, cohort study

Background

The diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) often experiences latency, ultimately leading to unfavorable patient outcomes due to delayed therapeutic interventions. Our study is designed to develop and validate a model that employs triple-phase computerized tomography (CT)-based deep learning radiomics and clinical variables for early warning of HCC in patients with cirrhosis.

Methods

We studied 1858 patients with cirrhosis primarily from the PreCar cohort (NCT03588442) between June 2018 and January 2020 at 11 centres, and collected triple-phase CT images and laboratory results 3-12 months prior to HCC diagnosis or non-HCC final follow-up. Using radiomics and deep learning techniques, early warning model was developed in the discovery cohort (n = 924), and then validated in an internal validation cohort (n = 231), and an external validation cohort from 10 external centres (n = 703).

Findings

We developed a hybrid model, named ALARM model, which integrates deep learning radiomics with clinical variables, enabling early warning of the majority of HCC cases. The ALARM model effectively predicted short-term HCC development in cirrhotic patients with area under the curve (AUC) of 0.929 (95% confidence interval 0.918-0.941) in the discovery cohort, 0.902 (0.818-0.987) in the internal validation cohort, and 0.918 (0.898-0.961) in the external validation cohort. By applying optimal thresholds of 0.21 and 0.65, the high-risk (n = 221, 11.9%) and medium-risk (n = 433, 23.3%) groups, which covered 94.4% (84/89) of the patients who developed HCC, had significantly higher rates of HCC occurrence compared to the low-risk group (n = 1204, 64.8%) (24.3% vs 6.4% vs 0.42%, P < 0.001). Furthermore, ALARM also demonstrated consistent performance in subgroup analysis.

Interpretation

The novel ALARM model, based on deep learning radiomics with clinical variables, provides reliable estimates of short-term HCC development for cirrhotic patients, and may have the potential to improve the precision in clinical decision-making and early initiation of HCC treatments.

Funding

This work was supported by National Key Research and Development Program of China (2022YFC2303600, 2022YFC2304800), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (82170610), Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation (2023A1515011211).

Socio-economic association of alcohol use disorder and cardiovascular and alcohol-associated liver disease from 2010 to 2019

BACKGROUNDS AND AIMS

Alcohol use leads to disabilities and deaths worldwide. It not only harms the liver but also causes alcohol use disorder (AUD) and heart disease. Additionally, alcohol consumption contributes to health disparities among different socio-economic groups.

METHODS

We estimated global and regional trends in the burden of AUD, liver disease, and cardiovascular disease from alcohol using the methodology of the Global Burden of Disease study.

RESULTS

In 2019, the highest disability-adjusted life years rate per 100,000 population was due to AUD (207.31 [95% Uncertainty interval (UI) 163.71-261.66]), followed by alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) (133.31 [95% UI 112.68-156.17]). The prevalence rate decreased for AUD (APC [annual percentage change] -0.38%) and alcohol-induced cardiomyopathy (APC -1.85%) but increased for ALD (APC 0.44%) and liver cancer (APC 0.53%). Although the mortality rate for liver cancer from alcohol increased (APC 0.30%), mortality rates from other diseases decreased. Between 2010 and 2019, the burden of alcohol-associated complications increased in countries with low and low-middle sociodemographic index (SDI), contributing more significantly to the global burden.

CONCLUSION

The global burden of AUD, liver, and cardiovascular disease has been high and increasing over the past decade, particularly for liver complications. Lower SDI countries are contributing more to this global burden. There is a pressing need for effective strategies to address this escalating burden.

High serum gamma-glutamyltransferase level after hepatitis C virus elimination is a risk factor for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma

AIM

Gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) is known as an oxidative stress marker, induced by alcohol consumption and metabolic disorders, and is reported as a predictor of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development after hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination. However, it is not clear whether GGT serves simply as a surrogate marker for overlapping metabolic diseases or reflects HCV-specific carcinogenicity. We investigated the association between GGT and hepatocarcinogenesis after achieving a sustained viral response (SVR), accounting for drinking habits or diabetes, and examined predisposing factors associated with GGT levels after SVR.

METHODS

This is a prospective, multicenter, and observational study using the database of 1001 patients after HCV eradication with direct-acting antiviral agents. The association of GGT at SVR with cumulative HCC development was examined in a multivariate analysis using Cox proportional hazard models after adjustment for covariates including alcohol and diabetes. The association between oxidative stress markers or genetic factors and GGT levels was analyzed.

RESULTS

High GGT levels at SVR were associated with HCC development (HR] 2.38, 95% CI 1.10-5.17). This association was also significant when restricted to patients without alcohol consumption or diabetes (HR 8.38, 95% CI 2.87-24.47). GGT levels were correlated with serum growth differentiation factor 15 levels, a marker of mitochondrial dysfunction. Single-nucleotide polymorphisms of ZNF827 and GDF15 were associated with high GGT levels.

CONCLUSIONS

High GGT levels at SVR were associated with HCC development after accounting for alcohol consumption and diabetes. GGT levels are influenced by genetic predisposition and may reflect mitochondrial dysfunction after HCV eradication.

Prognostic nomogram based on the gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase-to-platelet ratio for patients with compensated cirrhotic hepatocellular carcinoma after local ablation

Background

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients with compensated cirrhosis typically face a high prevalence and unfavorable prognosis. However, there is currently a deficiency in prediction models to anticipate the prognosis of these patients. Therefore, our study included the Gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase-to-platelet ratio (GPR) in analysis and aimed to develop a nomogram for HCC patients with compensated cirrhosis after local ablation.

Methods

Enrolling 669 patients who underwent local ablation at Beijing You'an Hospital during the period from January 1, 2014, to December 31, 2022, this study focused on individuals with compensated cirrhotic HCC. In a ratio of 7:3, patients were allocated to the training cohort (n=468) and the validation cohort (n=201). Lasso-Cox regression was employed to identify independent prognostic factors for overall survival (OS). Subsequently, a nomogram was constructed using these factors and was validated through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

GPR, age, and hemoglobin were identified by Lasso-Cox regression as independent prognostic factors of the nomogram. The area under the ROC curves (AUCs) for 3-, 5-, and 8-year OS (0.701, 0.755, and 0.768 for the training cohort; 0.684, 0.707, and 0.778 for the validation cohort), and C-indices (0.695 for training cohort; 0.679 for validation cohort) exhibited the excellent predictive ability of the nomogram. Calibration curves and DCA curves indicated favorable calibration performance and clinical utility. Patients were further stratified into two risk groups according to the median nomogram score. There existed an obvious distinction between the two groups both in the training cohort and validation cohort.

Conclusion

In summary, this research established and validated a novel nomogram to predict OS, which had good predictive power for HCC patients with compensated cirrhosis after local ablation.

Global Prevalence, Clinical Characteristics, Surveillance, Treatment Allocation, and Outcomes of Alcohol-Associated Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Although the burden of alcohol-associated hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is increasing with rising alcohol consumption, clinical presentation and outcomes of alcohol-associated HCC have not been systematically assessed. We aimed to determine the prevalence, clinical characteristics, surveillance rates, treatment allocation, and outcomes of alcohol-associated HCC.

METHODS

Medline and Embase were searched from inception to January 2023. Proportional data were analyzed using a generalized linear mixed model. The odds ratio (OR) or mean difference comparing alcohol-associated HCC and other causes was obtained with pairwise meta-analysis. Survival outcomes were evaluated using a pooled analysis of hazard ratios.

RESULTS

Of 4824 records identified, 55 articles (86,345 patients) were included. Overall, 30.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 24.0%-37.7%) of HCC was alcohol associated, with the highest proportion in Europe and the lowest in the Americas. People with alcohol-associated HCC were more likely male but were similar in age and comorbidities compared with other causes. A total of 20.8% (95% CI, 11.4%-34.9%) of people with alcohol-associated HCC underwent surveillance compared with 35.0%, 31.6%, and 21.4% in hepatitis B virus, hepatitis C virus, and metabolic dysfunction-associated HCC, respectively (all P < .05). Alcohol-associated HCC had a lower likelihood of Barcelona Clínic Liver Cancer C stage (0/A) (OR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.6-0.9; P = .018) and curative therapy (24.5% vs 33.9%; OR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.5-0.9; P = .003), and higher mortality (HR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.1-1.5; P = .012) when compared with other causes.

CONCLUSIONS

Alcohol-associated HCC is associated with lower surveillance rates, more advanced BCLC stage, lower likelihood of receiving curative therapy, and poorer survival. These data call for measures to reduce heavy alcohol consumption and improve strategies for effective HCC surveillance in high-risk individuals.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease

Importance

In the US, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has been the most rapidly increasing cancer since 1980, and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is expected to soon become the leading cause of HCC.

Objective

To develop a prediction model for HCC incidence in a cohort of patients with MASLD.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This prognostic study was conducted among patients aged at least 18 years with MASLD, identified using diagnosis of MASLD using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9) or International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) diagnosis codes; natural language processing of radiology imaging report text, which identified patients who had imaging evidence of MASLD but had not been formally diagnosed; or the Dallas Steatosis Index, a risk equation that identifies individuals likely to have MASLD with good precision. Patients were enrolled from Kaiser Permanente Northern California, an integrated health delivery system with more than 4.6 million members, with study entry between January 2009 and December 2018, and follow-up until HCC development, death, or study termination on September 30, 2021. Statistical analysis was performed during February 2023 and January 2024.

Exposure

Data were extracted from the electronic health record and included 18 routinely measured factors associated with MASLD.

Main Outcome and Measures

The cohort was split (70:30) into derivation and internal validation sets; extreme gradient boosting was used to model HCC incidence. HCC risk was divided into 3 categories, with the cumulative estimated probability of HCC 0.05% or less classified as low risk; 0.05% to 0.09%, medium risk; and 0.1% or greater, high risk.

Results

A total of 1 811 461 patients (median age [IQR] at baseline, 52 [41-63] years; 982 300 [54.2%] female) participated in the study. During a median (range) follow-up of 9.3 (5.8-12.4) years, 946 patients developed HCC, for an incidence rate of 0.065 per 1000 person-years. The model achieved an area under the curve of 0.899 (95% CI, 0.882-0.916) in the validation set. At the medium-risk threshold, the model had a sensitivity of 87.5%, specificity of 81.4%, and a number needed to screen of 406. At the high-risk threshold, the model had a sensitivity of 78.4%, a specificity of 90.1%, and a number needed to screen of 241.

Conclusions and Relevance

This prognostic study of more than 1.8 million patients with MASLD used electronic health record data to develop a prediction model to discriminate between individuals with and without incident HCC with good precision. This model could serve as a starting point to identify patients with MASLD who may need intervention and/or HCC surveillance.

Non-invasive biomarkers prognostic of decompensation events in NASH cirrhosis: a systematic literature review

Liver cirrhosis due to nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is a life-threatening condition with increasing incidence world-wide. Although its symptoms are unspecific, it can lead to decompensation events such as ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, variceal hemorrhage, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). In addition, an increased risk for cardiovascular events has been demonstrated in patients with NASH. Pharmacological treatments for NASH cirrhosis are not yet available, one of the reasons being the lack in surrogate endpoints available in clinical trials of NASH cirrhosis. The feasibility of non-invasive prognostic biomarkers makes them interesting candidates as possible surrogate endpoints if their change following treatment would result in better outcomes for patients in future clinical trials of NASH cirrhosis. In this systematic literature review, a summary of the available literature on the prognostic performance of non-invasive biomarkers in terms of cardiovascular events, liver-related events, and mortality is outlined. Due to the scarcity of data specific for NASH cirrhosis, this review includes studies on NAFLD whose evaluation focuses on cirrhosis. Our search strategy identified the following non-invasive biomarkers with prognostic value in studies of NASH patients: NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS), Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4), aspartate aminotransferase (AST) to platelet ratio index (APRI), enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF™), BARD (BMI, AST/ALT (alanine aminotransferase) ratio, diabetes), Hepamet Fibrosis Score (HFS), liver enzymes (AST + ALT), alpha-fetoprotein, platelet count, neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), Lysyl oxidase-like (LOXL) 2, miR-122, liver stiffness, MEFIB (liver stiffness measured with magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) + FIB-4), and PNPLA3 GG genotype. The aim of the present systematic literature review is to provide the reader with a summary of the non-invasive biomarkers with prognostic value in NASH cirrhosis and give an evaluation of their utility as treatment monitoring biomarkers in future clinical trials.

EASL-EASD-EASO Clinical Practice Guidelines on the Management of Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease (MASLD)

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), previously termed non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), is defined as steatotic liver disease (SLD) in the presence of one or more cardiometabolic risk factor(s) and the absence of harmful alcohol intake. The spectrum of MASLD includes steatosis, metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH, previously NASH), fibrosis, cirrhosis and MASH-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This joint EASL-EASD-EASO guideline provides an update on definitions, prevention, screening, diagnosis and treatment for MASLD. Case-finding strategies for MASLD with liver fibrosis, using non-invasive tests, should be applied in individuals with cardiometabolic risk factors, abnormal liver enzymes, and/or radiological signs of hepatic steatosis, particularly in the presence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) or obesity with additional metabolic risk factor(s). A stepwise approach using blood-based scores (such as FIB-4) and, sequentially, imaging techniques (such as transient elastography) is suitable to rule-out/in advanced fibrosis, which is predictive of liver-related outcomes. In adults with MASLD, lifestyle modification - including weight loss, dietary changes, physical exercise and discouraging alcohol consumption - as well as optimal management of comorbidities - including use of incretin-based therapies (e.g. semaglutide, tirzepatide) for T2D or obesity, if indicated - is advised. Bariatric surgery is also an option in individuals with MASLD and obesity. If locally approved and dependent on the label, adults with non-cirrhotic MASH and significant liver fibrosis (stage ≥2) should be considered for a MASH-targeted treatment with resmetirom, which demonstrated histological effectiveness on steatohepatitis and fibrosis with an acceptable safety and tolerability profile. No MASH-targeted pharmacotherapy can currently be recommended for the cirrhotic stage. Management of MASH-related cirrhosis includes adaptations of metabolic drugs, nutritional counselling, surveillance for portal hypertension and HCC, as well as liver transplantation in decompensated cirrhosis.

Monitoring disease progression in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease

BACKGROUND

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is the most common cause of chronic liver disease. Its prevalence is increasing with the epidemic of obesity and metabolic syndrome. MASLD progression into metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) and advanced fibrosis may lead to decompensated cirrhosis and development of liver-related events, hepatocellular carcinoma and death. Monitoring disease progression is critical in decreasing morbidity, mortality, need for transplant and economic burden. Assessing for treatment response once FDA-approved medications are available is still an unmet clinical need.

AIMS

To explore the most up-to-date literature on testing used for monitoring disease progression and treatment response METHODS: We searched PubMed from inception to 15 August 2023, using the following MeSH terms: 'MASLD', 'Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease', 'MASH', 'metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis', 'Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease', 'NAFLD', 'non-alcoholic steatohepatitis', 'NASH', 'Biomarkers', 'clinical trial'. Articles were also identified through searches of the authors' files. The final reference list was generated based on originality and relevance to this review's broad scope, considering only papers published in English.

RESULTS

We have cited 101 references in this review detailing methods to monitor MASLD disease progression and treatment response.

CONCLUSION

Various biomarkers can be used in different care settings to monitor disease progression. Further research is needed to validate noninvasive tests more effectively.

Role of biomarkers in the diagnosis and management of HCC

For many cancers, biomarkers have served as an important tool across the cancer care continuum from risk stratification and early detection to diagnosis and treatment. Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) remains one of the few validated biomarkers for patients with HCC. Although AFP has shown potential for each of these steps, its performance, when used alone, has often been suboptimal. There continue to be discordant recommendations about AFP's value when combined with ultrasound for surveillance, as well as its role in diagnostic algorithms. Conversely, high AFP levels are associated with aggressive tumor biology and survival, so it remains a key factor for the selection of candidates for liver transplant. There have been immense efforts to identify and validate additional biomarkers for each of these steps in the HCC care continuum. Indeed, biomarker panels have shown promising data for HCC risk stratification and surveillance among patients with cirrhosis, as well as prognostication and detection of minimal residual disease in patients undergoing HCC treatment. Several large prospective studies are currently ongoing to evaluate the role of these emerging biomarkers in clinical practice.

Hepatic Arterial Infusion Chemotherapy vs Transcatheter Arterial Chemoembolization as Adjuvant Therapy Following Surgery for MVI-Positive Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Multicenter Propensity Score Matching Analysis

Background

Microvascular invasion (MVI) is a significant pathological feature in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), adjuvant hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy (a-HAIC) and adjuvant transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (a-TACE), are commonly used for HCC patients with MVI. This study aims to evaluate the efficacies of two adjuvant therapies after surgical treatment for HCC, compare them, and identify the significant factors.

Methods

Clinical data from two randomized controlled trials involving HCC patients with MVI after surgical treatment were retrospectively reviewed. Propensity score matching (PSM) analysis was performed to balance baseline differences between patients who received a-HAIC or a-TACE, and control groups who underwent hepatectomy alone. Disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) rates were compared.

Results

In total of 549 patients were collected from two randomized controlled trials. Using the PSM and Kaplan-Meier method, the median DFS of the a-HAIC, a-TACE, and control groups was 63.2, 21.7, and 11.2 months (P<0.05). The a-HAIC group show significantly better 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS rates compared to the a-TACE and control groups (96.3%, 80.0%, 72.8% vs 84.4%, 57.0%, 29.8% vs 84.5%, 62.8%, 53.4%, P<0.05). But the OS rates of a-TACE and control groups showed no significant difference (P=0.279). Multivariate analysis identified a-HAIC (HR=0.449, P=0.000) and a-TACE (HR=0.633, P=0.007) as independent protective factors. For OS, a-HAIC (HR=0.388, P=0.003) was identified as an independent protective factor, too.

Conclusion

Compared to a-TACE and the control group, a-HAIC demonstrated greater benefits in preventing tumor recurrence and improving survival in HCC patients with MVI.

Sex differences in diabetes‑induced hepatic and renal damage

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a disease that affects millions of individuals worldwide and is characterized by abnormal glucose metabolism that can induce severe damage to numerous organs throughout the body. Sex differences have been demonstrated in a number of factors associated with diabetes and its complications, such as diabetic kidney disease and diabetic liver disease. To investigate the sex differences in DM further, the changes in the weight, food and water intake, and blood sugar of mice were recorded for 8 weeks in the present study. Hematoxylin and eosin staining, Masson's trichrome staining and transmission electron microscopy were used to observe the pathological changes of liver and kidney tissues. There is no significant difference in the water intake and blood glucose concentration between db/db female and male mice was observed. However, sex differences in liver and kidney damage including glomerular injury and hepatic fibrosis were found. In conclusion, the present study characterized the features of liver and kidney damage in db/db mice and indicated that sex differences should be taken into account in experiments using female and male experimental animals. Furthermore, sex differences should be taken into account in the selection of drug interventions in experiments and in clinical drug therapy.

A Liver Stiffness-Based Etiology-Independent Machine Learning Algorithm to Predict Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The existing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk scores have modest accuracy, and most are specific to chronic hepatitis B infection. In this study, we developed and validated a liver stiffness-based machine learning algorithm (ML) for prediction and risk stratification of HCC in various chronic liver diseases (CLDs).

METHODS

MLs were trained for prediction of HCC in 5155 adult patients with various CLDs in Korea and further tested in 2 prospective cohorts from Hong Kong (HK) (N = 2732) and Europe (N = 2384). Model performance was assessed according to Harrell's C-index and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

RESULTS

We developed the SMART-HCC score, a liver stiffness-based ML HCC risk score, with liver stiffness measurement ranked as the most important among 9 clinical features. The Harrell's C-index of the SMART-HCC score in HK and Europe validation cohorts were 0.89 (95% confidence interval, 0.85-0.92) and 0.91 (95% confidence interval, 0.87-0.95), respectively. The area under ROC curves of the SMART-HCC score for HCC in 5 years was ≥0.89 in both validation cohorts. The performance of SMART-HCC score was significantly better than existing HCC risk scores including aMAP score, Toronto HCC risk index, and 7 hepatitis B-related risk scores. Using dual cutoffs of 0.043 and 0.080, the annual HCC incidence was 0.09%-0.11% for low-risk group and 2.54%-4.64% for high-risk group in the HK and Europe validation cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

The SMART-HCC score is a useful machine learning-based tool for clinicians to stratify HCC risk in patients with CLDs.

A risk prediction model for hepatocellular carcinoma in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease without cirrhosis: HCC prediction for non-cirrhotic NAFLD

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Although non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is becoming a leading cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), HCC risk in non-cirrhotic NAFLD received little attention. We aimed to develop and validate an HCC risk prediction model for non-cirrhotic NAFLD.

METHODS

A nationwide cohort of non-cirrhotic NAFLD patients in Korea was recruited to develop a risk prediction model and validate it internally (n = 409 088). A model using a simplified point system was developed by Cox proportional hazard model. K-fold cross-validation assessed the accuracy, discrimination and calibration. The model was validated externally using a hospital cohort from Asan Medical Center (n = 8721).

RESULTS

An 11-point HCC risk prediction model for non-cirrhotic NAFLD was developed using six independent factors of age, sex, diabetes, obesity, serum alanine aminotransferase level and gamma-glutamyl transferase level (c-index 0.75). The average area under receiver operating curves (AUROCs) of the model was 0.72 at 5 years and 0.75 at 10 years. In the external validation cohort, the AUROCs were 0.79 [95% confidence interval [CI], 0.59-0.95] at 5 years and 0.84 (95% CI, 0.73-0.94) at 10 years. The calibration plots showed the expected risks corresponded well with the observed risks. Risk stratification categorized patients into the low (score 0-6), moderate (7, 8) and high (9-11; estimated incidence rate >0.2%/year) risk groups.

CONCLUSIONS

A novel HCC risk prediction model for non-cirrhotic NAFLD patients was developed and validated with fair performance. The model is expected to serve as a simple and reliable tool to assess HCC risk and assist precision screening of HCC.

Study protocol for FASTRAK: a randomised controlled trial evaluating the cost impact and effectiveness of FAST-MRI for HCC suRveillance in pAtients with high risK of liver cancer

INTRODUCTION

The surveillance of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) using semi-annual liver ultrasound (US) is justified in patients with cirrhosis. In this context, US has a low sensitivity (<30%) for the detection of HCC at the very early stage (ie, Barcelona clinic liver cancer (BCLC) 0, uninodular tumour <2 cm). The sensitivity of abbreviated liver MRI (AMRI) is reported to exceed 80%, but its use is hampered by costs and availability. Our hypothesis is that AMRI used as a screening examination in patients at high risk of HCC (>3% per year) could increase the rates of patients with a tumour detected at an early stage accessible to curative-intent treatment, and demonstrate its cost-effectiveness in this population.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The FASTRAK trial is a multicentre, randomised controlled trial with two parallel arms, aiming for superiority and conducted on patients at high risk for HCC (yearly HCC incidence >3%). Randomisation will be conducted on an individual basis with a centralised approach and stratification by centre. After inclusion in the trial, each patient will be randomly assigned to the experimental group (semi-annual US and AMRI) or the control group (semi-annual US alone). The main objective is to assess the cost/quality-adjusted life year and cost/patient detected with a BCLC 0 HCC in both arms. A total of 944 patients will be recruited in 37 tertiary French centres during a 36-month period and will be followed-up during 36 months.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The FASTRAK trial received ethical approval on 4 April 2022. Results will be disseminated via publication in peer-reviewed journals as well as presentation at international conferences.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

Clinical trial number (ClinicaTrials.gov) NCT05095714.

The Growing Landscape of NAFLD-Associated Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Its Impact in Surveillance

Liver cancer is globally the third leading cause of death from cancer. Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) develops in patients with underlying liver disease. The fraction of HCC attributed to nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) shows an accelerated increase in the last decades, being already responsible for 15% of all HCC cases. Similar to other causes of liver cirrhosis, patients with NAFLD-associated cirrhosis should be enrolled in HCC-screening programs, yet these patients are under-screened, and currently are less than half likely to be proposed for HCC screening as compared to patients with HCV-associated cirrhosis. NAFLD-associated HCC has the peculiarity of occurring in precirrhotic phases in 20-50% of the cases. Currently, HCC screening in precirrhotic NAFLD patients is not routinely recommended, since the risk of developing HCC is very low. However, because NAFLD affects one-third of the worldwide population, noncirrhotic NAFLD already accounts for 6% of HCC cases. As such, it is pressing to develop stratification tools, in order to personalize the individual risk of HCC development in a patient with NAFLD, allowing precision HCC-screening programs. This review summarizes the epidemiology of NAFLD-associated HCC with a critical analysis of current HCC-screening recommendations.

MASLD and the Development of HCC: Pathogenesis and Therapeutic Challenges

Metabolic-dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD, previously known as non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)) represents a rapidly increasing cause of chronic liver disease and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), mirroring increasing rates of obesity and metabolic syndrome in the Western world. MASLD-HCC can develop at an earlier stage of fibrosis compared to other causes of chronic liver disease, presenting challenges in how to risk-stratify patients to set up effective screening programmes. Therapeutic decision making for MASLD-HCC is also complicated by medical comorbidities and disease presentation at a later stage. The response to treatment, particularly immune checkpoint inhibitors, may vary by the aetiology of the disease, and, in the future, patient stratification will be key to optimizing the therapeutic pathways.

Hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance may be associated with potential psychological harms in patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The value of HCC surveillance is determined by the balance between benefits and harms; however, no studies have enumerated psychological harms.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We fielded surveys measuring psychological harms to patients with cirrhosis in a multicenter randomized trial of HCC surveillance outreach. All patients with positive or indeterminate surveillance results and matched patients with negative results were invited to complete surveys measuring (1) depression through the Patient Health Questionnaire-ninth version, (2) anxiety through State-Trait Anxiety Inventory, (3) HCC-specific worry through Psychological Consequences Questionnaire, and (4) decisional regret. Patients were classified into 4 groups: true positive (TP), false positive (FP), indeterminate, and true negative (TN). Multivariable longitudinal regression analysis using the generalized estimating equation method was performed to compare the means of measures across groups. We conducted 89 semistructured interviews in a subset of patients stratified by health system and test results. Of 2872 patients in the trial, 311 completed 1+ follow-up survey (63 FP, 77 indeterminate, 38 TP, and 133 TN). Moderate depression decreased in TN patients, increased in TP, and had intermittent but mild increases in those with FP and indeterminate results. High anxiety temporarily increased in patients with TP results but resolved over time and was stable in those with FP and indeterminate results. Decisional regret was low and did not differ across groups. In semistructured interviews, patients reported apprehension, anxiety, emotional distress, and coping related to HCC surveillance.

CONCLUSIONS

Psychological harms of HCC surveillance appear mild but differ by test result. Future research should determine the impact of psychological harms on the value of HCC surveillance programs.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance: Evidence-Based Tailored Approach

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance is recommended by professional society guidelines given a consistent association with reduced HCC-related mortality. HCC surveillance should be performed using semiannual abdominal ultrasound and alpha-fetoprotein, although this combination has suboptimal sensitivity and can miss more than one-third of HCC at an early stage. There are promising emerging blood-based and imaging-based strategies, including abbreviated MRI and biomarker panels; however, these require further validation before routine use in clinical practice. HCC surveillance is underused in clinical practice due to patient-related and provider-related barriers, highlighting a need for interventions to improve surveillance utilization in clinical practice.

Macrophages and platelets in liver fibrosis and hepatocellular carcinoma

During fibrosis, (myo)fibroblasts deposit large amounts of extracellular matrix proteins, thereby replacing healthy functional tissue. In liver fibrosis, this leads to the loss of hepatocyte function, portal hypertension, variceal bleeding, and increased susceptibility to infection. At an early stage, liver fibrosis is a dynamic and reversible process, however, from the cirrhotic stage, there is significant progression to hepatocellular carcinoma. Both liver-resident macrophages (Kupffer cells) and monocyte-derived macrophages are important drivers of fibrosis progression, but can also induce its regression once triggers of chronic inflammation are eliminated. In liver cancer, they are attracted to the tumor site to become tumor-associated macrophages (TAMs) polarized towards a M2- anti-inflammatory/tumor-promoting phenotype. Besides their role in thrombosis and hemostasis, platelets can also stimulate fibrosis and tumor development by secreting profibrogenic factors and regulating the innate immune response, e.g., by interacting with monocytes and macrophages. Here, we review recent literature on the role of macrophages and platelets and their interplay in liver fibrosis and hepatocellular carcinoma.

Hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance - utilization, barriers and the impact of changing aetiology

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the third leading cause of cancer death worldwide. Surveillance for HCC is critical for early detection and treatment, but fewer than one-quarter of individuals at risk of HCC undergo surveillance. Multiple failures across the screening process contribute to the underutilization of surveillance, including limited disease awareness among patients and health-care providers, knowledge gaps, and difficulty recognizing patients who are at risk. Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and alcohol-associated liver disease are the fastest-rising causes of HCC-related death worldwide and are associated with unique barriers to surveillance. In particular, more than one-third of patients with HCC related to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease do not have cirrhosis and therefore lack a routine indication for HCC surveillance on the basis of current practice guidelines. Semi-annual abdominal ultrasound with measurement of α-fetoprotein levels is recommended for HCC surveillance, but the sensitivity of this approach for early HCC is limited, especially for patients with cirrhosis or obesity. In this Review, we discuss the current status of HCC surveillance and the remaining challenges, including the changing aetiology of liver disease. We also discuss strategies to improve the utilization and quality of surveillance for HCC.

Risk Stratification Model for Hepatocellular Cancer in Patients With Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The available risk stratification indices for hepatocellular cancer (HCC) have limited applicability. We developed and externally validated an HCC risk stratification index in U.S. cohorts of patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

We used data from 2 prospective U.S. cohorts to develop the risk index. Patients with cirrhosis were enrolled from 8 centers and followed until development of HCC, death, or December 31, 2021. We identified an optimal set of predictors with the highest discriminatory ability (C-index) for HCC. The predictors were refit using competing risk regression and its predictive performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC). External validation was performed in a cohort of 21,550 patients with cirrhosis seen in the U.S Veterans Affairs system between 2018 and 2019 with follow-up through 2021.

RESULTS

We developed the model in 2431 patients (mean age 60 years, 31% women, 24% cured hepatitis C, 16% alcoholic liver disease, and 29% nonalcoholic fatty liver disease). The selected model had a C-index of 0.77 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73-0.81), and the predictors were age, sex, smoking, alcohol use, body mass index, etiology, α-fetoprotein, albumin, alanine aminotransferase, and platelet levels. The AUROCs were 0.75 (95% CI, 0.65-0.85) at 1 year and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.71-0.83) at 2 years, and the model was well calibrated. In the external validation cohort, the AUROC at 2 years was 0.70 with excellent calibration.

CONCLUSION

The risk index, including objective and routinely available risk factors, can differentiate patients with cirrhosis who will develop HCC and help guide discussions regarding HCC surveillance and prevention. Future studies are needed for additional external validation and refinement of risk stratification.

Advances in the understanding and management of alcohol-related liver disease

Alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) is a major cause of liver-related morbidity and mortality. Epidemiological trends indicate recent and predicted increases in the burden of disease. Disease progression is driven by continued alcohol exposure on a background of genetic predisposition together with environmental cofactors. Most individuals present with advanced disease despite a long history of excessive alcohol consumption and multiple missed opportunities to intervene. Increasing evidence supports the use of non-invasive tests to screen for and identify disease at earlier stages. There is a definite role for public health measures to reduce the overall burden of disease. At an individual level, however, the ability to influence subsequent disease course by modifying alcohol consumption or the underlying pathogenic mechanisms remains limited due to a comparative lack of effective, disease-modifying medical interventions. Abstinence from alcohol is the key determinant of outcome in established ALD and the cornerstone of clinical management. In those with decompensated ALD, liver transplant has a clear role. There is consensus that abstinence from alcohol for an arbitrary period should not be the sole determinant in a decision to transplant. An increasing understanding of the mechanisms by which alcohol causes liver disease in susceptible individuals offers the prospect of new therapeutic targets for disease-modifying drugs. Successful translation will require significant public and private investment in a disease area which has traditionally been underfunded when compared to its overall prevalence.

Individual surveillance by competing risk model for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence in all-cause cirrhosis

PURPOSE

It was of great significance to identify someone with a high risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence and make a diagnosis as early as possible. Therefore, we aimed to develop and validate a new, objective, and accurate prediction model, and convert it into a nomogram to make a personalized prediction of cancer occurrence in cirrhotic patients with different etiologies.

METHODS

The present study included 938 patients with cirrhosis from January 1, 2011, to December 31, 2012. Patients were prospectively followed-up until January 1, 2018. We used a competing risk model and the Fine-Gray test to develop and validate the prediction model and to plot a nomogram based on the model established.

RESULTS

At the end of follow-up, 202 (21.5%) patients developed HCC, with a 5-year incidence of 19.0% (corrected for competing risk model). Based on the competing risk regression method, we built a prediction model including age, gender, etiology, lymphocyte, and A/G ratio. Three groups with different risks were generated on account of tertiles of the 5-year risk predicted by the model. The cumulative 1-, 3-, and 5-year incidences of HCC were 2.0%, 20.8%, and 42.3% in high-risk group, 0.9%, 10.1%, and 17.7% in medium-risk group, and 0%, 2.0%, 8.5% in low-risk group (P < 0.001). The model showed excellent discrimination and calibration in predicting the risk of HCC occurrence in patients with all-cause cirrhosis.

CONCLUSION

The model could make an individual prediction of cancer occurrence and stratify patients based on predicted risk, regardless of the causes of cirrhosis.

Statistical perspectives on using hepatocellular carcinoma risk models to inform surveillance decisions

More than 50,000 people are diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) every year in Europe. Many cases are known to specialist liver centres years before they present with HCC. Despite this, HCC is usually detected at a late stage, when prognosis is very poor. For more than two decades, clinical guidelines have recommended uniform surveillance for all patients with cirrhosis. However, studies continue to show that this broad-based approach is inefficient and poorly implemented in practice. A "personalised" approach, where the surveillance regimen is customised to the needs of the patient, is gaining growing support in the clinical community. The cornerstone of personalised surveillance is the HCC risk model - a mathematical equation predicting a patient's individualised probability of developing HCC within a specific time window. However, although numerous risk models have now been published, few are being used in routine care to inform HCC surveillance decisions. In this article, we discuss methodological issues stymieing the use of HCC risk models in routine practice - highlighting biases, evidence gaps and misconceptions that future research must address.

From NAFLD to HCC: Advances in noninvasive diagnosis

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has gradually become one of the major liver health problems in the world. The dynamic course of the disease goes through steatosis, inflammation, fibrosis, and carcinoma. Before progressing to carcinoma, timely and effective intervention will make the condition better, which highlights the importance of early diagnosis. With the further study of the biological mechanism in the pathogenesis and progression of NAFLD, some potential biomarkers have been discovered, and the possibility of their clinical application is gradually being discussed. At the same time, the progress of imaging technology and the emergence of new materials and methods also provide more possibilities for the diagnosis of NAFLD. This article reviews the diagnostic markers and advanced diagnostic methods of NAFLD in recent years.

Ethnic differences in hepatocellular carcinoma prevalence and therapeutic outcomes

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide. The incidence of HCC is affected by genetic and non-genetic factors. Genetically, mutations in the genes, tumor protein P53 (TP53), catenin beta 1 (CTNNB1), AT-rich interaction domain 1A (ARIC1A), cyclin dependent kinase inhibitor 2A (CDKN2A), mannose 6-phosphate (M6P), smooth muscle action against decapentaplegic (SMAD2), retinoblastoma gene (RB1), cyclin D, antigen presenting cells (APC), AXIN1, and E-cadherin, have been shown to contribute to the occurrence of HCC. Non-genetic factors, including alcohol consumption, exposure to aflatoxin, age, gender, presence of hepatitis B (HBV), hepatitis C (HCV), and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), increase the risk of HCC.

RECENT FINDINGS

The severity of the disease and its occurrence vary based on geographical location. Furthermore, men and minorities have been shown to be disproportionately affected by HCC, compared with women and non-minorities. Ethnicity has been reported to significantly affect tumorigenesis and clinical outcomes in patients diagnosed with HCC. Generally, differences in gene expression and/or the presence of comorbid medical diseases affect or influence the progression of HCC. Non-Caucasian HCC patients are significantly more likely to have poorer survival outcomes, compared to their Caucasian counterparts. Finally, there are a number of factors that contribute to the success rate of treatments for HCC.

CONCLUSION

Assessment and treatment of HCC must be consistent using evidence-based guidelines and standardized outcomes, as well as international clinical practice guidelines for global consensus. Standardizing the assessment approach and method will enable comparison and improvement of liver cancer research through collaboration between researchers, healthcare providers, and advocacy groups. In this review, we will focus on discussing epidemiological factors that result in deviations and changes in treatment approaches for HCC.

Exploring Opportunities to Enhance the Screening and Surveillance of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) through Risk Stratification Algorithms Incorporating Ultrasound Elastography

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), with its progressive form, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), has emerged as a significant public health concern, affecting over 30% of the global population. Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), a complication associated with both cirrhotic and non-cirrhotic NAFLD, has shown a significant increase in incidence. A substantial proportion of NAFLD-related HCC occurs in non-cirrhotic livers, highlighting the need for improved risk stratification and surveillance strategies. This comprehensive review explores the potential role of liver ultrasound elastography as a risk assessment tool for HCC development in NAFLD and highlights the importance of effective screening tools for early, cost-effective detection and improved management of NAFLD-related HCC. The integration of non-invasive tools and algorithms into risk stratification strategies could have the capacity to enhance NAFLD-related HCC screening and surveillance effectiveness. Alongside exploring the potential advancement of non-invasive tools and algorithms for effectively stratifying HCC risk in NAFLD, we offer essential perspectives that could enable readers to improve the personalized assessment of NAFLD-related HCC risk through a more methodical screening approach.

Alcohol and its associated liver carcinogenesis

Alcohol consumption is a major cause of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The prevalence of alcohol-associated hepatocellular carcinoma (aHCC) varies worldwide but is highest in Eastern Europe. Alcohol is the second fastest-growing cause of age-standardized liver cancer mortality with tumors more often diagnosed outside surveillance protocols and at a more advanced stage. Risk factors for aHCC include greater amounts of alcohol consumption, sex, and certain genetic polymorphisms. Smoking, concomitant liver disease, obesity, and diabetes act synergistically in increasing the risk of HCC in alcohol-associated liver disease. Alcohol-related hepatocarcinogenesis results from the complex interactions of several mechanistic pathways. Although not completely understood, underlying mechanisms include acetaldehyde-related hepatotoxicity, oxidative stress, activation of the innate immune system, and alterations of the host microbiome.

Screening of liver cancer with abbreviated MRI

Current recommendations for the surveillance of HCC are based on the semiannual liver ultrasound (with or without serum alpha-fetoprotein) in patients with cirrhosis and in subgroups with chronic hepatitis B infection. However, the sensitivity of this strategy is suboptimal for the detection of early-stage tumors, especially in obese patients, due to interoperator variability and poor adherence. The detection rate of focal liver lesions is excellent with MRI, making it the best alternative candidate for surveillance. However, performing a full contrast-enhanced MRI is unrealistic because of limited availability and health economics. Abbreviated MRI (AMRI) corresponds to the acquisition of a limited number of sequences with a high detection rate. The theoretical benefits of AMRI are a reduced acquisition time (≤10 min) with improved time-effectiveness and cost-effectiveness compared with conventional MRI, and greater accuracy than ultrasound. Numerous protocols may be performed, including T1-weighted, T2-weighted, and DWI sequences, with or without contrast administration. Although published studies report promising per-patient results, they should be interpreted with caution. Indeed, most studies were simulated, retrospectively reviewing a subset of sequences in relatively small populations who underwent a full MRI. They also included groups that were not representative of screening populations. In addition, most were published by Asian groups, with at-risk populations that were different from Western populations. There are no existing longitudinal studies that directly compare the different AMRI approaches or AMRI to ultrasound. Finally, it is possible that 1 approach will not fit all patients and that strategies should be tailored to the risk of HCC, in particular in relation to the cost and availability of AMRI. Several trials are ongoing to evaluate these questions.

Serum resistin and the risk for hepatocellular carcinoma in diabetic patients

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the predominant type of liver cancer, is a major contributor to cancer-related fatalities across the globe. Diabetes has been identified as a significant risk factor for HCC, with recent research indicating that the hormone resistin could be involved in the onset and advancement of HCC in diabetic individuals. Resistin is a hormone that is known to be involved in inflammation and insulin resistance. Patients with HCC have been observed to exhibit increased resistin levels, which could be correlated with more severe disease stages and unfavourable prognoses. Nevertheless, the exact processes through which resistin influences the development and progression of HCC in diabetic patients remain unclear. This article aims to examine the existing literature on the possible use of resistin levels as a biomarker for HCC development and monitoring. Furthermore, it reviews the possible pathways of HCC initiation due to elevated resistin and offers new perspectives on comprehending the fundamental mechanisms of HCC in diabetic patients. Gaining a better understanding of these processes may yield valuable insights into HCC’s development and progression, as well as identify possible avenues for prevention and therapy.

Usefulness of aMAP Risk Score for Predicting Recurrence after Curative Treatment for Hepatocellular Carcinoma within Milan Criteria

INTRODUCTION

The aMAP score is a prediction model for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk in chronic hepatitis patients. This study was conducted to elucidate the utility of this model for predicting initial recurrence of HCC in patients within the Milan criteria after undergoing curative treatment.

METHODS

Patients with naïve HCC within the Milan criteria (n = 1,020) and treated from January 2000 to August 2022 were enrolled. The cohort was divided into two groups according to the aMAP score (high ≥60, low <60) and then compared for recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS).

RESULTS

Comparisons between the high and low groups showed that etiology (HBV:HCV:HBV+HCV:NBNC = 41:79:2:37 vs. 65:589:11:196, p < 0.001), AST (36 vs. 46 IU/L, p < 0.001), and multiple HCC occurrence (15% vs. 22%, p = 0.026) were significantly different. Additionally, median RFS (59.8 vs. 30.9 months; p < 0.001) and median OS (154.1 vs. 83.4 months, p < 0.01) were greater in the low group. As for patients with HCC due to chronic viral hepatitis, there was a significant difference in median RFS between the groups (59.8 vs. 30.6 months, p < 0.001), especially for HCV-positive patients (53.1 vs. 27.2 months, p = 0.002). In patients with HCC due to a nonviral cause, the difference in median RFS between the low (70.9 months) and high (32.0 months) groups was not significant.

DISCUSSION

Findings of this retrospective study indicate a significant association of elevated aMAP with worse RFS in patients with HCC caused by chronic viral hepatitis, especially those with HCV. The aMAP score is considered useful to predict not only HCC-carcinogenesis risk but also risk of recurrence following curative treatment.

International Liver Cancer Association (ILCA) white paper on hepatocellular carcinoma risk stratification and surveillance

Major research efforts in liver cancer have been devoted to increasing the efficacy and effectiveness of surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). As with other cancers, surveillance programmes aim to detect tumours at an early stage, facilitate curative-intent treatment, and reduce cancer-related mortality. HCC surveillance is supported by a large randomised-controlled trial in patients with chronic HBV infection and several cohort studies in cirrhosis; however, effectiveness in clinical practice is limited by several barriers, including inadequate risk stratification, underuse of surveillance, and suboptimal accuracy of screening tests. There are several proposed strategies to address these limitations, including risk stratification algorithms and biomarkers to better identity at-risk individuals, interventions to increase surveillance, and emerging imaging- and blood-based surveillance tests with improved sensitivity and specificity for early HCC detection. Beyond clinical validation, data are needed to establish clinical utility, i.e. increased early tumour detection and reduced HCC-related mortality. If successful, these data could facilitate a precision screening paradigm in which surveillance strategies are tailored to individual HCC risk to maximise overall surveillance value. However, practical and logistical considerations must be considered when designing and implementing these validation efforts. To address these issues, ILCA (the International Liver Cancer Association) adjourned a single topic workshop on HCC risk stratification and surveillance in June 2022. Herein, we present a white paper on these topics, including the status of the field, ongoing research efforts, and barriers to the translation of emerging strategies.

Noninvasive Assessment of Liver Fibrosis in NAFLD

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has emerged as a leading cause of liver-related morbidity and mortality worldwide, afflicting approximately a billion individuals. NAFLD is a slowly progressive disease that may evolve in a subset of patients toward cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and end-stage liver disease. Liver fibrosis severity is the strongest predictor of clinical outcomes. The emergence of effective therapeutics on the horizon highlights the need to identify among patients with NAFLD, those with severe fibrosis or cirrhosis, who are the most at risk of developing complications and target them for therapy. Liver biopsy has been the reference standard for this purpose. However, it is not suitable for large-scale population evaluation, given its well-known limitations (invasiveness, rare but severe complications, and sampling variability). Thus, there have been major efforts to develop simple noninvasive tools that can be used in routine clinical settings and in drug development. Noninvasive approaches are based on the quantification of biomarkers in serum samples or on the measurement of liver stiffness, using either ultrasound- or magnetic resonance-based elastography techniques. This review provides a roadmap for future development and integration of noninvasive tools in clinical practice and in drug development in NAFLD. We discuss herein the principles for their development and validation, their use in clinical practice, including for diagnosis of NAFLD, risk stratification in primary care and hepatology settings, prediction of long-term liver-related and non-liver-related outcomes, monitoring of fibrosis progression and regression, and response to future treatment.

Opportunities to address gaps in early detection and improve outcomes of liver cancer

Death rates from primary liver cancer (hepatocellular carcinoma [HCC]) have continued to rise in the United States over the recent decades despite the availability of an increasing range of treatment modalities, including new systemic therapies. Prognosis is strongly associated with tumor stage at diagnosis; however, most cases of HCC are diagnosed beyond an early stage. This lack of early detection has contributed to low survival rates. Professional society guidelines recommend semiannual ultrasound-based HCC screening for at-risk populations, yet HCC surveillance continues to be underused in clinical practice. On April 28, 2022, the Hepatitis B Foundation convened a workshop to discuss the most pressing challenges and barriers to early HCC detection and the need to better leverage existing and emerging tools and technologies that could improve HCC screening and early detection. In this commentary, we summarize technical, patient-level, provider-level, and system-level challenges and opportunities to improve processes and outcomes across the HCC screening continuum. We highlight promising approaches to HCC risk stratification and screening, including new biomarkers, advanced imaging incorporating artificial intelligence, and algorithms for risk stratification. Workshop participants emphasized that action to improve early detection and reduce HCC mortality is urgently needed, noting concern that many of the challenges we face today are the same or similar to those faced a decade ago and that HCC mortality rates have not meaningfully improved. Increasing the uptake of HCC screening was identified as a short-term priority while developing and validating better screening tests and risk-appropriate surveillance strategies.

Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis-related hepatocellular carcinoma: pathogenesis and treatment

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), including its more severe manifestation, nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), has a global prevalence of 20-25% and is a major public health problem. Its incidence is increasing in parallel to the rise in obesity, diabetes and metabolic syndrome. Progression from NASH to NASH-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) (~2% of cases per year) is influenced by many factors, including the tissue and immune microenvironment, germline mutations in PNPLA3, and the microbiome. NASH-HCC has unique molecular and immune traits compared with other aetiologies of HCC and is equally prevalent in men and women. Comorbidities associated with NASH, such as obesity and diabetes mellitus, can prevent the implementation of potentially curative therapies in certain patients; nonetheless, outcomes are similar in patients who receive treatment. NASH-HCC at the early to intermediate stages is managed with surgery and locoregional therapies, whereas advanced HCC is treated with systemic therapies, including anti-angiogenic therapies and immune-checkpoint inhibitors. In this Review, we present the latest knowledge of the pathogenic mechanisms and clinical management of NASH-HCC. We discuss data highlighting the controversy over varying responses to immune-checkpoint inhibitors according to underlying aetiology and suggest that the future of NASH-HCC management lies in improved surveillance, targeted combination therapies to overcome immune evasion, and identifying biomarkers to recognize treatment responders.

Does Type 2 Diabetes Increase the Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Patients: A Systematic Review

Diabetes is associated with different types of cancers of which hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one among them. In a study comparing patients with diabetes to those who do not have diabetes, it was evident that the risk of HCC is found to increase two-fold in diabetic than that in non-diabetic patients. It is clear that carcinogenesis is advanced due to diabetes in the liver by a variety of mechanisms. We searched PubMed and Google Scholar for articles from 2010 to 2021 that have an association between diabetes, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), and HCC. For the development of HCC, diabetes is likely related at both the molecular and epidemiological levels. Both diabetes mellitus and hepatic malignancy have the worst impact on mankind socioeconomically. There is a significant relationship between diabetes and HCC independent of alcohol consumption and viral hepatitis. It is noteworthy that not only the elderly but also people of all age groups should monitor their hemoglobin A1C levels. Diet restriction and lifestyle modification can reduce the risk of complications like HCC; the increased physical activity itself can have a major influence on health and can manage comorbidities like diabetes, NAFLD, and HCC.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Scores Predict Patients Under Surveillance at Low Risk of Benefit and High Risk of Harm

AIMS

Surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is recommended for patients with cirrhosis. Multiple risk scores aim to stratify HCC risk, potentially allowing individualized surveillance strategies. We sought to validate four risk scores and quantify the consequences of surveillance via the calculation of numbers needed to benefit (NNB) and harm (NNH) according to classification by risk score strata.

METHODS

Data were collected on 482 patients with cirrhosis during 2013-2014, with follow-up until 31/12/2019. Risk scores (aMAP, Toronto risk index, ADRESS HCC, HCC risk score) were derived from index clinic results. The area under the receiving operating characteristic curve (AUC) was calculated for each. Additionally, per-risk strata, NNB was calculated as total surveillance ultrasounds per surveillance diagnosed early HCC (stage 0/A) and NNH as total ultrasounds performed per false positive (abnormal surveillance with normal follow-up imaging).

RESULTS

22 (4.6%) patients developed HCC. 77% (17/22) were diagnosed through surveillance, of which 13/17 (76%) were early stage. There were 88 false positives and no false negatives (normal surveillance result however subsequent HCC detection). Overall NNB and NNH were 241 and 36, respectively. No score was significantly superior using AUC. Patients classified as low risk demonstrated no surveillance benefit (AMAP, THRI) or had a high NNB of > 300/900 (ADRESS HCC, HCC risk score), with low NNH (24-38).

CONCLUSION

Given the lack of benefit and increased harm through false positives in low-risk groups, a risk-based surveillance strategy may have the potential to reduce patient harm and increase benefit from HCC surveillance.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

This was not a clinical trial and the study was not pre-registered.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease-related hepatocellular carcinoma

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), one of the most common causes of liver disease, is an increasingly common cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Several demographic, clinical, and genetic factors contribute to HCC risk in NAFLD patients, which may inform risk stratification scores. Proven efficacious approaches to primary prevention approach in patients with non-viral liver disease remain an area of need. Semi-annual surveillance is associated with improved early tumor detection and reduced HCC-related mortality; however, patients with NAFLD have several challenges to effective surveillance, including under-recognition of at-risk patients, low surveillance utilization in clinical practice, and lower sensitivity of current tools for early-stage HCC detection. Treatment decisions are best made in a multidisciplinary fashion and are informed by several factors including tumor burden, liver dysfunction, performance status, and patient preferences. Although patients with NAFLD often have larger tumor burden and increased comorbidities compared to counterparts, they can achieve similar post-treatment survival with careful patient selection. Therefore, surgical therapies continue to provide a curative treatment option for patients diagnosed at an early stage. Although there has been debate about the efficacy of immune checkpoint inhibitors in patients with NAFLD, current data are insufficient to change treatment selection based on liver disease etiology.

HADHA alleviates hepatic steatosis and oxidative stress in NAFLD via inactivation of the MKK3/MAPK pathway

BACKGROUND

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a liver metabolic syndrome and still lacks effective treatments because the molecular mechanism underlying the development of NAFLD is not completely understood. We investigated the role of Hydroxyl CoA dehydrogenase alpha subunit (HADHA) in the pathogenesis of NAFLD.

METHODS

HADHA expression was detected both in NAFLD cell and mice, and knockdown of HADHA in free fatty acids (FFA)-treated L02 or overexpression of HADHA in high fat diet (HFD)-fed mice was used to detected the influence of HADHA on hepatic steatosis, mitochondrial dysfunction, and oxidative stress by regulating of MKK3/MAPK signaling.

RESULTS

Our data revealed that HADHA expression was decreased in FFA-treated L02 cells and in HFD-fed mice. Knockdown of HADHA markedly aggravated hepatic steatosis, inflammation and oxidative stress in FFA-treated L02 cells, which was associated with the activation of MKK3/MAPK signalling pathways. Moreover, oxidative stress and liver lesions were improved in NAFLD mice by upregulation of HADHA. Importantly, we demonstrated that overexpression of HADHA inhibited the expression of p-MAPK in NAFLD mice, reducing lipid accumulation and steatosis.

CONCLUSION

HADHA may function as a protective factor in the progression of NAFLD by alleviating abnormal metabolism and oxidative stress by suppressing MKK3/MAPK signalling pathway activation, providing a new target for the treatment of NAFLD.

Hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) may progress to cirrhotic or non-cirrhotic hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and is currently recognized as the fastest growing cause of HCC worldwide. Accordingly, professional society guidelines recommend HCC surveillance in patients with cirrhosis from any etiology, and some may consider it beneficial in subgroups with non-cirrhotic NAFLD at higher risk for HCC. Notably, patients with NAFLD-related HCC are more likely to have HCC diagnosed at more advanced stages and have poorer outcomes when compared to other etiologies, and suboptimal effectiveness of HCC surveillance programs is a major culprit. In this review, we summarize the current guidelines for HCC surveillance and discuss its benefits versus potential harms for NAFLD patients. We also address the unique challenges of HCC surveillance in NAFLD, including higher proportion of NAFLD-related HCC without cirrhosis, poor recognition of at-risk patients, lack of consensus regarding the value of surveillance in non-cirrhotic NAFLD, subpar effectiveness of surveillance tools related to NAFLD phenotype, and preponderant surveillance underuse among NAFLD patients. Finally, we examine the effectiveness of currently used surveillance tools (i.e., ultrasound and alpha fetoprotein) and outline future perspectives including emerging risk stratification tools, imaging surveillance strategies (e.g., abbreviated magnetic resonance imaging protocols), blood-based biomarkers (e.g., GALAD and circulating tumor DNA panels), and interventions to improve surveillance adherence.

Rs3746444 T>C locus in miR-499 increases the susceptibility to hepatocellular carcinoma: A meta-analysis 14812 subjects

BACKGROUND

Recently, many investigations have suggested that the rs3746444 T>C locus in the microRNA (miR)-499 gene may contribute to the occurrence of cancer. However, reports on the association between rs3746444 and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are conflicting.

AIM

To further understand and explore the potential correlation between the single-nucleotide polymorphism of rs3746444 and the incidence of HCC.

METHODS

In this meta-analysis, we obtained electronic literature by searching the PubMed, Embase and Chinese BioMedical Disc databases (through May 20, 2022). All eligible case-control, prospective cohort or nested case-control studies with sufficient data for calculating the odds ratios with their 95% confidence intervals were included.

RESULTS

Ultimately, a total of 17 independent studies were included. We identified that rs3746444 was associated with the development of HCC (C vs T: P = 0.019 and CC/CT vs TT: P = 0.016). In Asian individuals, rs3746444 was associated with susceptibility to HCC (C vs T: P = 0.013 and CC/CT vs TT: P = 0.016). In addition, this study identified that the miR-499 rs3746444 locus was associated with susceptibility to HCC in the normal/healthy control subgroup (C vs T: P = 0.034 and CC/CT vs TT: P = 0.024).

CONCLUSION

In summary, this meta-analysis highlights that rs3746444 in the miR-499 gene is involved in the occurrence of HCC, especially in Asian individuals.

Global epidemiology of alcohol-associated cirrhosis and HCC: trends, projections and risk factors

Heavy alcohol consumption is a major cause of morbidity and mortality. Globally, alcohol per-capita consumption rose from 5.5 litres in 2005 to 6.4 litres in 2016 and is projected to increase further to 7.6 litres in 2030. In 2019, an estimated 25% of global cirrhosis deaths were associated with alcohol. The global estimated age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of alcohol-associated cirrhosis was 4.5 per 100,000 population, with the highest and lowest ASDR in Africa and the Western Pacific, respectively. The annual incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis ranged from 0.9% to 5.6%. Alcohol was associated with approximately one-fifth of global HCC-related deaths in 2019. Between 2012 and 2017, the global estimated ASDR for alcohol-associated cirrhosis declined, but the ASDR for alcohol-associated liver cancer increased. Measures are required to curb heavy alcohol consumption to reduce the burden of alcohol-associated cirrhosis and HCC. Degree of alcohol intake, sex, older age, obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus, gut microbial dysbiosis and genetic variants are key factors in the development of alcohol-associated cirrhosis and HCC. In this Review, we discuss the global epidemiology, projections and risk factors for alcohol-associated cirrhosis and HCC.

SWOT analysis of noninvasive tests for diagnosing NAFLD with severe fibrosis: an expert review by the JANIT Forum

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common chronic liver disease. Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is an advanced form of NAFLD can progress to liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Recently, the prognosis of NAFLD/NASH has been reported to be dependent on liver fibrosis degree. Liver biopsy remains the gold standard, but it has several issues that must be addressed, including its invasiveness, cost, and inter-observer diagnosis variability. To solve these issues, a variety of noninvasive tests (NITs) have been in development for the assessment of NAFLD progression, including blood biomarkers and imaging methods, although the use of NITs varies around the world. The aim of the Japan NASH NIT (JANIT) Forum organized in 2020 is to advance the development of various NITs to assess disease severity and/or response to treatment in NAFLD patients from a scientific perspective through multi-stakeholder dialogue with open innovation, including clinicians with expertise in NAFLD/NASH, companies that develop medical devices and biomarkers, and professionals in the pharmaceutical industry. In addition to conventional NITs, artificial intelligence will soon be deployed in many areas of the NAFLD landscape. To discuss the characteristics of each NIT, we conducted a SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis in this study with the 36 JANIT Forum members (16 physicians and 20 company representatives). Based on this SWOT analysis, the JANIT Forum identified currently available NITs able to accurately select NAFLD patients at high risk of NASH for HCC surveillance/therapeutic intervention and evaluate the effectiveness of therapeutic interventions.

NAFLD-related hepatocellular carcinoma: The growing challenge

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a common cause of cancer-related mortality and morbidity worldwide. With the obesity pandemic, NAFLD-related HCC is contributing to the burden of disease exponentially. Genetic predisposition and clinical risk factors for NAFLD-related HCC have been identified. Cirrhosis is a well-known and major risk factor for NAFLD-related HCC. However, the occurrence of NAFLD-related HCC in patients without cirrhosis is increasingly recognized and poses a significant challenge regarding cancer surveillance. It is of paramount importance to develop optimal risk stratification scores and models to identify subsets of the population at high risk so they can be enrolled in surveillance programs. In this review, we will discuss the risks and prediction models for NAFLD-related HCC.