Performance of HAS-BLED, ORBIT, PRECISE-DAPT, and PARIS risk score for predicting long-term bleeding events in patients taking an oral anticoagulant undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention

Predictive Value of HAS-BLED and HEMORR2HAGES Bleeding Risk Scores After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

BACKGROUND

Various scoring systems have been developed to assess the risk of bleeding in medical settings. HAS-BLED and HEMORR2HAGES risk scores are commonly used to estimate bleeding risk in patients receiving anticoagulation for atrial fibrillation, but data on their predictive value in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) are limited.

METHODS

This study evaluated and compared the predictive abilities of the HAS-BLED and HEMORR2HAGES bleeding risk scores in all-comer patients undergoing PCI. The PARIS score, specifically designed for patients undergoing PCI, was used as a comparator. The scores were calculated at baseline and compared with the occurrence of events during a 2-year clinical follow-up period. Between 2015 and 2017, all consecutive patients undergoing PCI we re prospectively enrolled and divided into risk tertiles based on bleeding risk scores. The primary end points were hierarchical major bleeding events, defined by Bleeding Academic Research Consortium types 3 through 5, and patient-oriented composite end points according to Bleeding Academic Research Consortium classification, which were assessed during the 2-year follow-up period.

RESULTS

A total of 1,080 patients completed the follow-up period. Two years after index, 189 patients (17.5%) had experienced any bleeding, with 48 events (4.4%) classified as Bleeding Academic Research Consortium types 3 to 5. All bleeding risk scores showed statistically significant predictive ability for bleeding events. The HEMORR2HAGES score (C statistic, 0.73) was more effective than the HAS-BLED score (C statistic, 0.66; P = .07) and the PARIS score (C statistic, 0.66; P = .06) in predicting risk of major bleeding. Patients in high-risk bleeding groups also experienced a higher incidence of patient-oriented composite end points.

CONCLUSIONS

The HEMORR2HAGES, HAS-BLED, and PARIS risk scores exhibited good predictive abilities for bleeding events following PCI. Patients at high risk of bleeding also demonstrated increased ischemic risk and higher mortality during the 2-year follow-up period.

Association between Genetic Polymorphisms and Bleeding in Patients on Direct Oral Anticoagulants

Objectives: The purpose of our study is to investigate the effects of apolipoprotein B (APOB) and APOE gene polymorphisms on bleeding complications in patients receiving direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs). Methods: A total of 16 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 468 patients were genotyped. Six SNPs of ABCB1 (rs3842, rs1045642, rs2032582, rs1128503, rs3213619, and rs3747802), one SNP of CYP3A5 (rs776746), seven SNPs of APOB (rs1042034, rs2163204, rs693, rs679899, rs13306194, rs13306198, and rs1367117), and two SNPs of APOE (rs429358 and rs7412) were analyzed by a TaqMan genotyping assay. Multivariable logistic regression analysis with selected variables was performed for the construction of a risk scoring system. Two risk scoring systems were compared (demographic factors only vs. demographic factors and genetic factors). Results: In the multivariable analyses, two models were constructed; only demographic factors were included in Model I and both demographic factors and genetic factors in Model II. Rivaroxaban and anemia showed significant association with bleeding in both models. Additionally, ABCB1 rs3842 variant homozygote carriers (CC) and APOB rs13306198 variant allele carriers (AG, AA) had a higher risk of bleeding risk compared with that of wild-type allele carriers (TT, TC) and wild-type homozygote carriers (GG), respectively. Whereas the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) value using demographic factors only was 0.65 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.56–0.74), the AUROC increased to 0.72 by adding genetic factors (95% CI: 0.65–0.80). The predicted bleeding risks of bleeding in patients with 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8 points from the logistic regression curve were 0.8%, 2.0%, 5.4%, 5.2%, 12.5%, 26.9%, 47.0%, 64.3% and 82.3%, respectively. Conclusions: The study results can be used for enhancing individualized treatment strategies in patients taking DOACs, helping clinicians predict the bleeding risk.

Predictive performance of different bleeding risk scores in patients with atrial fibrillation and acute coronary syndrome or undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention

This study aims to evaluate the predictive values of the HAS-BLED, ORBIT, ATRIA, REACH, PARIS, and PRECISE-DAPT scores in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and acute coronary syndrome (ACS) or undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) who received both anticoagulant and antiplatelet therapy. 930 patients were consecutively recruited and followed up for 1 year. The primary endpoints were BARC class ≥3 bleeding and BARC class ≥2 bleeding. BARC class ≥3 bleeding occurred in 36 patients(3.9%), while BARC class ≥2 bleeding was seen in 134 patients (14.4%). The predictive performance of the HAS-BLED score for BARC class ≥3 bleeding was unsatisfactory (c-statistic = 0.575). The discrimination of the ATRIA, ORBIT, PARIS, and PRECISE-DAPT scores was also low-to-moderate. The REACH score was useless in bleeding risk stratification for this population. Multivariable logistic regression indicated that previous bleeding events and hemoglobin were two independent predictors of BARC class ≥3 bleeding. Compared to the HAS-BLED score, the model constructed by previous bleeding events and hemoglobin displayed a significant improvement in bleeding risk prediction [c-statistics: 0.704 vs. 0.575 (p = .008), NRI = 0.662,IDI = 0.049]. In patients with AF and ACS or undergoing PCI who received anticoagulant+antiplatelet therapy, the HAS-BLED, ORBIT, ATRIA, REACH, PARIS, and PRECISE-DAPT scores displayed only low-to-moderate performance in predicting BARC class≥3 bleeding. Future studies are required to develop more reliable scoring systems for bleeding risk evaluation in this population.

Validation of the Academic Research Consortium for High Bleeding Risk criteria in Chinese patients with atrial fibrillation and acute coronary syndrome or undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention

BACKGROUND

This study aims to validate the Academic Research Consortium for High Bleeding Risk (ARC-HBR) criteria in Chinese patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and acute coronary syndrome (ACS) or undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) who received both oral anticoagulants (OAC) and antiplatelet therapy (APT).

METHODS

930 consecutive patients with AF and ACS or undergoing PCI receiving both OAC and APT were recruited and followed up for 1 year. The primary endpoint was BARC type 3 or 5 bleeding. The secondary endpoints included BARC type 2, 3, or 5 bleeding, TIMI major bleeding, TIMI major or minor bleeding, and major adverse cardiovascular events (a composite of all-cause death, stroke, non-central nervous system embolism, myocardial infarction, definite or probable stent thrombosis, and target vessel revascularization). Cox regressions were performed to evaluate the association between the ARC-HBR score and outcomes. Discrimination was evaluated through analysis of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI).

RESULTS

Compared to patients with no HBR other than OAC, patients with HBR besides OAC tended to have more comorbidities and worse outcomes. The ARC-HBR score was significantly associated with the primary and secondary endpoints, both as a continuous variable and as a categorical variable. The ARC-HBR score performed better than the HAS-BLED score (c-statistic: 0.692 vs. 0.575, NRI = 0.313, IDI = 0.061) and the PRECISE-DAPT score (c-statistic: 0.692 vs. 0.616, NRI = 0.393, IDI = 0.049).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with AF and ACS or undergoing PCI receiving both OAC and APT, the ARC-HBR score was a significant predictor of 1-year bleeding and ischemic endpoints. The ARC-HBR score performed better than the HAS-BLED score and the PRECISE-DAPT score in BARC type 3 or 5 bleeding prediction.

A review of machine learning for cardiology

This paper reviews recent cardiology literature and reports how Artificial Intelligence Tools (specifically, Machine Learning techniques) are being used by physicians in the field. Each technique is introduced with enough details to allow the understanding of how it works and its intent, but without delving into details that do not add immediate benefits and require expertise in the field. We specifically focus on the principal Machine Learning based risk scores used in cardiovascular research. After introducing them and summarizing their assumptions and biases, we discuss their merits and shortcomings. We report on how frequently they are adopted in the field and suggest why this is the case based on our expertise in Machine Learning. We complete the analysis by reviewing how corresponding statistical approaches compare with them. Finally, we discuss the main open issues in applying Machine Learning tools to cardiology tasks, also drafting possible future directions. Despite the growing interest in these tools, we argue that there are many still underutilized techniques: while Neural Networks are slowly being incorporated in cardiovascular research, other important techniques such as Semi-Supervised Learning and Federated Learning are still underutilized. The former would allow practitioners to harness the information contained in large datasets that are only partially labeled, while the latter would foster collaboration between institutions allowing building larger and better models.

Novel bleeding risk score for patients with atrial fibrillation on oral anticoagulants, including direct oral anticoagulants

OBJECTIVE

Balancing bleeding risk and stroke risk in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common challenge. Though several bleeding risk scores exist, most have not included patients on direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs). We aimed at developing a novel bleeding risk score for patients with AF on oral anticoagulants (OAC) including both vitamin K antagonists (VKA) and DOACs.

METHODS

We included patients with AF on OACs from a prospective multicenter cohort study in Switzerland (SWISS-AF). The outcome was time to first bleeding. Bleeding events were defined as major or clinically relevant non-major bleeding. We used backward elimination to identify bleeding risk variables. We derived the score using a point score system based on the β-coefficients from the multivariable model. We used the Brier score for model calibration (<0.25 indicating good calibration), and Harrel's c-statistics for model discrimination.

RESULTS

We included 2147 patients with AF on OAC (72.5% male, mean age 73.4 ± 8.2 years), of whom 1209 (56.3%) took DOACs. After a follow-up of 4.4 years, a total of 255 (11.9%) bleeding events occurred. After backward elimination, age > 75 years, history of cancer, prior major hemorrhage, and arterial hypertension remained in the final prediction model. The Brier score was 0.23 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.19-0.27), the c-statistic at 12 months was 0.71 (95% CI 0.63-0.80).

CONCLUSION

In this prospective cohort study of AF patients and predominantly DOAC users, we successfully derived a bleeding risk prediction model with good calibration and discrimination.

Using the ORACLE Risk Score to Assess Hemorrhagic Risk in Patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome and Atrial Fibrillation

Aim. To study the prognostic value of the ORACLE risk score for assessing the risk of bleeding in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) undergoing anticoagulants for atrial fibrillation using the combined database of the ORACLE II and RECORD 3 registers.

Material and methods. This analysis included patients with ACS from 2 observational studies: ORACLE II (ObseRvation after Acute Coronary syndrome for deveLopment of trEatment options; n=1803) and the RECORD-3 register (n=2370). In total, the database included 4173 patients, of which 246 (6.08%) received oral anticoagulants for atrial fibrillation. The mean age of patients was 64.7±11.9 years, 2493 (59.7%) were men. Hemorrhagic risk was assessed using the ORACLE, CRUSADE, ORBIT, and HAS-BLED risk score.

Results. Patients receiving anticoagulant therapy were older (69.9±11.3 years and 64.0±12.2 years, p<0.001). Among these patients there was a larger proportion of women, and a smaller proportion of patients with ACS with ST elevation, they were more likely to have chronic heart failure, chronic kidney disease, history of stroke. Among patients receiving anticoagulants and included in the ORACLE study, the frequency of percutaneous coronary intervention was higher than in patients included in the RECORD study. In the joint database, 71 significant bleeding was recorded during the hospitalization period – 64 (1.7%) in patients without anticoagulants and 7 (2.8%) among patients taking anticoagulants (p=0.06). Over 6 months, among patients who did not receive anticoagulants, there were 97 cases of bleeding (in 2.6% of patients), in the group of patients receiving anticoagulants – 12 cases of bleeding (4.9%) – the differences in frequency were significant (p=0.029). The ORACLE risk score had the greatest prognostic value (area under the ROC curve 0.874±0.0416, sensitivity 82.7%, specificity 79.1%). The predictive value of the HAS-BLED risk score was slightly lower (area under the ROC curve 0.710±0.0360, sensitivity 63.2%, specificity 56.8%). The value of the CRUSADE risk score (area under the ROC curve 0.612±0.0269, sensitivity 53.7%, specificity 59.5%) and ORBIT risk score (area under the ROC curve 0.606±0.0457, sensitivity 62.5%, specificity 58.3%) were lower (p<0.001 for all scales).

Conclusion. The use of the ORACLE bleeding risk score can be recommended for patients with ACS requiring anticoagulant therapy.

Direct comparison of predictive performance of PRECISE-DAPT versus PARIS versus CREDO-Kyoto: a subanalysis of the ReCre8 trial

Background

Multiple scores have been proposed to guide risk stratification after percutaneous coronary intervention. This study assessed the performance of the PRECISE-DAPT, PARIS and CREDO-Kyoto risk scores to predict post-discharge ischaemic or bleeding events.

Methods

A total of 1491 patients treated with latest-generation drug-eluting stent implantation were evaluated. Risk scores for post-discharge ischaemic or bleeding events were calculated and directly compared. Prognostic performance of both risk scores was assessed with calibration, Harrell’s c‑statistics net reclassification index and decision curve analyses.

Results

Post-discharge ischaemic events occurred in 56 patients (3.8%) and post-discharge bleeding events in 34 patients (2.3%) within the first year after the invasive procedure. C‑statistics for the PARIS ischaemic risk score was marginal (0.59, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.51–0.68), whereas the CREDO-Kyoto ischaemic risk score was moderate (0.68, 95% CI 0.60–0.75). With regard to post-discharge bleeding events, CREDO-Kyoto displayed moderate discrimination (c-statistic 0.67, 95% CI 0.56–0.77), whereas PRECISE-DAPT (0.59, 95% CI 0.48–0.69) and PARIS (0.55, 95% CI 0.44–0.65) had a marginal discriminative capacity. Net reclassification index and decision curve analysis favoured CREDO-Kyoto-derived bleeding risk assessment.

Conclusion

In this contemporary all-comer population, PARIS and PRECISE-DAPT risk scores were not resilient to independent testing for post-discharge bleeding events. CREDO-Kyoto-derived risk stratification was associated with a moderate predictive capability for post-discharge ischaemic or bleeding events. Future studies are warranted to improve risk stratification with more focus on robustness and rigorous testing.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1007/s12471-020-01486-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Prediction-Determining Outcomes and Their Predictors in Atrial Fibrillation Patients Receiving Multicomponent Antithrombotic Therapy in Real Clinical Practice

Aim      Searching for clinical, angiographic, and biochemical predictors of cardiovascular complications (CVC) and hemorrhagic complications in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) receiving a multicomponent antithrombotic therapy (MAT) for an elective percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Patients with ischemic heart disease (IHD) and AF who require MAT for PCI are at a high risk of thrombotic complications (stroke, systemic embolism, coronary events) and hemorrhage. This warrants searching for new risk factors determining prediction of the outcome.Materials and methods This study included 207 patients (146 males aged 70.1±8.3 years) with IHD and AF who received direct oral anticoagulants (DOAC) as a part of their MAT therapy. Median duration of the follow-up was 12 [8.0; 12.0] months. The efficacy endpoint was a sum of CVCs combining cardiovascular death, ischemic stroke, venous thromboembolic complications, acute coronary syndrome (ACS), and requirement for an unscheduled PCI. "Coronary events", including ACS and requirement for an unscheduled PCI were analyzed separately. The safety endpoint was BARC type 2-5 bleeding. Upon admission, biomarkers (growth-differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15), D-dimer, thrombin-activated fibrinolysis inhibitor (TAFI), and plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1)) were measured for all patients. Searching for prognostically significant indexes was performed with the Cox proportional hazards regression.Results Incidence of all CVCs was 16.4 %. Independent predictors of CVC included the DOAC treatment at a reduced dose (odds ratio (OR) 2.5 at 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.02-6.15; p=0.0454), GDF-15 &gt;1191 pg /ml (OR 3.76 at 95 % CI, 1.26-11.18; p=0.0172), PAI-1 &gt;13.2 U/ml (OR 2.67 at 95 % CI, 1.13-6,26; p=0.0245). Incidence of coronary complications was 9.2 %. Independent predictors of coronary complications included a SYNTAX index &gt;26.5 (OR 4.5 at 95 % CI, 1.45-13.60; p=0.0090), PCI for chronic coronary occlusion (OR 3.21 at 95 % CI, 1.10-9.33; p=0.0326), a GDF-15 &gt;1191 pg/ml (ОR 4.70 at 95 % CI, 1.32-16.81; p=0.0172). Incidence of BARC type 2-5 bleeding was 26.1 %. The only independent predictor for hemorrhage complications was the total PRECISE-DAPT score &gt;30 (ОR 3.22; 95 % CI, 1.89-5.51; р&lt;0.0001).Conclusion      Three independent predictors of CVC were identified for patients with IHD and AF treated with MAT following an elective PCI: treatment with a reduced dose of DOAC, GDF-15 &gt;1191 pg /ml, and PAI-1&gt;13.2 U/ml. Independent predictors of coronary complications included a SYNTAX index &gt;26.5, PCI for chronic coronary occlusion, and GDF-15 &gt;1191 pg/ml. The factor associated with a risk of bleeding was the total PRECISE-DAPT score &gt;30.

Bleeding risks associated with anticoagulant therapies after percutaneous coronary intervention in Japanese patients with ischemic heart disease complicated by atrial fibrillation: A comparative study

BACKGROUND

Current guidelines recommend early termination of triple therapy and the use of direct oral anticoagulants (DOAC) for non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) patients who undergo percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), due to safety concerns. However, to date, real-world medication usage and safety outcomes (specifically bleeding) in NVAF patients with stent implantation have not been well assessed.

METHODS

This was a retrospective, observational, medical database cohort study in Japanese ischemic heart disease (IHD) patients with NVAF who underwent PCI between 2012 and 2017. The primary outcome was clinically relevant bleeding; secondary outcomes included individual bleeding events. A multivariate analysis was conducted to identify risk factors affecting the occurrence of clinically relevant bleeding events.

RESULTS

The analysis population comprised 5695 patients [3530 received DOACs and 2165 received vitamin K antagonists (VKAs)]. The incidence of primary outcome events (clinically relevant bleeding/100 patient-years) was 6.05 in the DOAC group and 8.42 in the VKA group, resulting in a nonsignificant 21% lower risk in the DOAC group. The DOAC group also had a nonsignificant 24%, 24%, and 34% lower risk of bleeding requiring transfusion, intracranial bleeding, and lower gastrointestinal bleeding, respectively, compared with the VKA group. A multivariate analysis of the primary outcome showed a significantly higher risk of bleeding among older patients and those with lower body weight and abnormal renal function.

CONCLUSIONS

In this retrospective real-world evaluation of IHD patients with NVAF and PCI, DOAC-treated patients had a lower risk of developing clinically relevant bleeding compared with the VKA group.

Impact of Nutritional and Inflammation Status on Long-Term Bleeding in Patients Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention with an Oral Anticoagulant

AIM

Patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) who require both oral anticoagulant (OAC) and antiplatelet therapy (APT) are exposed to a serious risk of bleeding. The aim of this study was to clarify the relationship among nutritional and inflammation status and long-term bleeding in patients requiring both OACs and APT after PCI.

METHODS

We performed PCI in 3,718 consecutive patients between April 2011 and March 2017, 302 of whom were treated with both OACs and APT. Patients were followed for up to 3 years for bleeding events, defined as the Bleeding Academic Research Consortium (BARC) class ≥3 bleeding. We retrospectively evaluated the ability of the Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI) and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) to detect bleeding events.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 1,080 days, bleeding events were observed in 53 (17.5%) patients. Bleeding events were associated with a low GNRI (≤98) (hazard ratio [HR], 3.16; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.84-5.45; p＜0.0001) and hs-CRP level ≥2.5 mg/L (HR, 2.75; 95% CI, 1.61-4.78; p=0.0003). A low GNRI＋high hs-CRP showed a 5.12-fold increase in the incidence of BARC class ≥3 bleeding (95% CI, 2.68-9.91; p＜0.0001) compared with a normal GNRI＋low hs-CRP. The addition of the GNRI and hs-CRP to the PRECISE-DAPT score improved C-statistics from 0.67 to 0.71 and enhanced the net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) (NRI, 0.36, p＜0.0001; IDI, 0.066, p＜0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

The GNRI and hs-CRP were novel predictors of the long-term bleeding risk in patients requiring both OACs and APT after PCI.

The Role of Novel Oral Anticoagulants and Antiplatelet Therapy after Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: Individualizing Therapy to Optimize Outcomes

The number of patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) who mandate additional oral anticoagulant therapy has been increasing. Dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) is associated with reduced ischemic events including stent thrombosis, myocardial infarction and stroke following PCI. However, the tradeoff is an increased risk for bleeding while on DAPT. The addition of a novel oral anticoagulant (NOAC) further increases the likelihood of bleeding while on antiplatelet therapy. Thus, the overall risks and benefits for each patient undergoing PCI on NOAC must be assessed and therapy individualized to ensure optimal therapy for each unique situation. Patients on NOAC undergoing PCI should undergo routine assessment with intravascular imaging as the role of high-risk lesion-related features have increased importance prior to determining optimal duration of treatment with DAPT. We review the best practices for the pharmacologic management of patients requiring anticoagulation with NOAC who are treated with PCI and require antiplatelet therapy.

Impact of Postdischarge Bleeding on Long-Term Mortality in Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Patients Taking Oral Anticoagulants

Although postdischarge bleeding (PDB) is known to negatively affect long-term outcome in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with antiplatelet therapy (APT), the prognostic importance of PDB in patients who require both oral anticoagulants (OACs) and APT has not been fully elucidated. Among 3718 consecutive patients who underwent PCI, 302 patients were treated with both OACs and APT. We evaluated the association between PDB and 3-year all-cause mortality, as estimated by a time-updated Cox proportional hazard regression model. We performed nearest-neighbor matching on the propensity score to adjust the differences in baseline characteristics. Among 302 patients treated with OACs and APT, PDB was observed in 98 patients at a median time of 239 days. Patients experienced PDB had significantly higher incidence of 3-year all-cause mortality in the overall cohort and 94 propensity-score-matched pairs (hazard ratio 6.21, 95% confidence interval 3.29-11.72, P < 0.0001; and hazard ratio 6.13, 95% confidence interval 2.68-14.02, P < 0.0001, respectively). The risk of subsequent mortality was the highest within 180 days after PDB (58.3% within 180 days and 75.0% within 1 year). In conclusion, PDB was significantly associated with long-term mortality in patients taking both OACs and APT after PCI.

Triple, dual, and single antithrombotic therapy for patients with atrial fibrillation undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention

In patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), concomitant coronary artery disease is often present, and vice versa. Although both AF and coronary artery disease need antithrombotic therapy to reduce ischemic events, optimal antithrombotic regimens for patients with AF undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) remain unclear. Triple therapy, a combination of oral anticoagulant plus dual antiplatelet therapy with aspirin and P2Y₁₂ inhibitor, has been used for patients with AF undergoing PCI as an initial antithrombotic strategy in the recent decade. However, triple therapy is well-known to induce severe bleeding events. Recently, several clinical trials have been published and guideline recommendations have been updated. This review article summarizes current evidence concerning antithrombotic therapy in patients with AF undergoing PCI.