Commercial-risk joint analysis with probabilistic linguistic assessments

Closing the loop of a global supply chain through a robust optimal decentralized decision support system

This paper presents a novel decentralized decision support system to optimally design a general global closed-loop supply chain. This is done through an original risk-based robust mixed-integer linear programming that is formulated based on an initial uncertain bi-level programming. Addressing the decision-maker's (DM's) attitude toward risk, a scenario-based conditional value-at-risk is used to deal with demand and return uncertainty. Also, the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) conditions are employed to transform the model into its single-level counterpart. The results obtained from solving a numerical example through the proposed framework are compared with those of the corresponding centralized system, which is formulated through deterministic multi-objective programming and solved by the Lp-metric method. The results show that the use of the proposed framework improves the robustness of profit, income, and cost by about 28%, 34%, and 36% on average. However, a more conservative DM faces a larger cost of robustness than an optimistic DM while experiencing a more significant improvement in the system responsiveness. Using the proposed framework, the manager can measure the advantages, disadvantages, and consequences of their decisions before their actual implementation. This is because the model is capable of establishing fundamental trade-offs among risk, cost, profit, income, robustness, and responsiveness according to the DM's attitude toward risk.