Modeling the transmission dynamics of sheep brucellosis in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China

Effective intervention of brucellosis prevention in developing countries: A dynamic modelling study

Objective

Brucellosis has a considerable impact on human health and the economy in developing countries. In China, the biggest developing country, brucellosis shifted spread of the epidemic from northern to southern regions. Understanding the transmission characteristic of brucellosis on Hunan province, located in central China, is of great significance for successful control.

Methods

We developed a multi-population and multi-route dynamic model (MPMRDM), which is an animal-human-environment coupled model. The model is an extension of the SEIR model, taking into account direct transmission and indirect transmission. We used the model to explore the spread of brucellosis and evaluate the effectiveness of various intervention strategies.

Results

The animal-to-animal transmission rate was the highest at 5.14 × 10-8, while the environment-to-person transmission rate was the lowest at 9.49 × 10-12. The mean R0 was 1.51. The most effective intervention was taking personal protection, followed by shortening the infection period. Shortening the infection period combined with personal protection is the most effective two-combined intervention strategy. After any comprehensive intervention strategy was implemented, TAR dropped by 90% or more.

Conclusion

The results demonstrate that animal transmission route is essential for controlling human brucellosis. Strengthening personal protection, early detection, and early treatment can effectively control the trend of brucellosis. These results can provide an important reference for optimizing brucellosis intervention plans.

Stability of a stochastic brucellosis model with semi-Markovian switching and diffusion

To explore the influence of state changes on brucellosis, a stochastic brucellosis model with semi-Markovian switchings and diffusion is proposed in this paper. When there is no switching, we introduce a critical value R s and obtain the exponential stability in mean square whenR s < 1 by using the stochastic Lyapunov function method. Sudden climate changes can drive changes in transmission rate of brucellosis, which can be modelled by a semi-Markov process. We study the influence of stationary distribution of semi-Markov process on extinction of brucellosis in switching environment including both stable states, during which brucellosis dies out, and unstable states, during which brucellosis persists. The results show that increasing the frequencies and average dwell times in stable states to certain extent can ensure the extinction of brucellosis. Finally, numerical simulations are given to illustrate the analytical results. We also suggest that herdsmen should reduce the densities of animal habitation to decrease the contact rate, increase slaughter rate of animals and apply disinfection measures to kill brucella.

Accessibility of the three-year comprehensive prevention and control of brucellosis in Ningxia: a mathematical modeling study

BACKGROUND

Brucellosis is a chronic zoonotic disease, and Ningxia is one of the high prevalence regions in China. To mitigate the spread of brucellosis, the government of Ningxia has implemented a comprehensive prevention and control plan (2022-2024). It is meaningful to quantitatively evaluate the accessibility of this strategy.

METHODS

Based on the transmission characteristics of brucellosis in Ningxia, we propose a dynamical model of sheep-human-environment, which coupling with the stage structure of sheep and indirect environmental transmission. We first calculate the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] and use the model to fit the data of human brucellosis. Then, three widely applied control strategies of brucellosis in Ningxia, that is, slaughtering of sicked sheep, health education to high risk practitioners, and immunization of adult sheep, are evaluated.

RESULTS

The basic reproduction number is calculated as [Formula: see text], indicating that human brucellosis will persist. The model has a good alignment with the human brucellosis data. The quantitative accessibility evaluation results show that current brucellosis control strategy may not reach the goal on time. "Ningxia Brucellosis Prevention and Control Special Three-Year Action Implementation Plan (2022-2024)" will be achieved in 2024 when increasing slaughtering rate [Formula: see text] by 30[Formula: see text], increasing health education to reduce [Formula: see text] to 50[Formula: see text], and an increase of immunization rate of adult sheep [Formula: see text] by 40[Formula: see text].

CONCLUSION

The results demonstrate that the comprehensive control measures are the most effective for brucellosis control, and it is necessary to further strengthen the multi-sectoral joint mechanism and adopt integrated measures to prevention and control brucellosis. These results can provide a reliable quantitative basis for further optimizing the prevention and control strategy of brucellosis in Ningxia.

Bifurcation analysis of a sheep brucellosis model with testing and saturated culling rate

Testing-culling is a very effective measure for the prevention and control of animal diseases. In this paper, based on sheep brucellosis control policies and animal testing characteristics and considering the limitation of culling resources, a dynamic model is established to study the impact of testing-culling measure. Theoretical analysis reveals that the model may have one or three positive equilibria. The equilibrium in the middle is always unstable, and the model shows saddle-node bifurcation, generalized Hopf bifurcation and Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation. Moreover, the theoretical results are verified via numerical analysis. These results reveal that testing and culling strategies can induce complex transmission dynamics that can help us develop appropriate prevention and control measures for animal brucellosis.

Optimal control strategy analysis for an human-animal brucellosis infection model with multiple delays

Firstly, we consider an animal-human infection model of brucellosis with three distributed delays, representing the latent period of brucellosis in infected animal and human population and the survival time of brucella in the environment, respectively. The equilibrium points and basic reproduction number R 0 are calculated. By building appropriate Lyapunov functionals and applying LaSalle's invariance principle, the sufficient conditions for global asymptotic stability of two equilibria are given. Secondly, by introducing four control variables, we set the corresponding optimal control model and drive the first order necessary conditions for the existence of optimal control solution. Finally, we perform several numerical simulations to validate our theoretical results and show effects of different control strategies.

Global dynamical analysis of H5 subtype avian influenza model

In order to study the comprehensive influence of factors such as contact between resident birds and poultry, poultry recruitment, environment and other factors on the transmission and control of H5 subtype avian influenza virus, a dynamic model of resident birds and poultry is developed. First, the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] is obtained. When [Formula: see text], the dynamic model have a unique positive equilibrium and the disease persisted. Second, the Lyapunov functions is constructed to determine the global stability of the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium. The results of numerical simulation show that regular disinfection and sterilization can increase the mortality of virus and effectively prevent the occurrence of epidemic situation. Although closing the live poultry trading market is not the main measure to control the epidemic, but it can control the epidemic to a lower level. Therefore, the regular closure of trading markets and sterilization can prevent and control the spread of the epidemic.

Transmission dynamics of brucellosis with patch model: Shanxi and Hebei Provinces as cases

Brucellosis is a zoonotic disease caused by Brucella, and it is an important infectious disease all over the world. The prevalence of brucellosis in the Chinese mainland has some spatial characteristics besides the temporal trend in recent years. Due to the large-scale breeding of sheep and the frequent transportation of sheep in various regions, brucellosis spreads wantonly in pastoral areas, and human brucellosis spreads from traditional pastoral areas and semi-pastoral areas in the north to non-pastoral areas with low incidence in the south. In order to study the influence of sheep immigration on the epidemic transmission, a patch dynamics model was established. In each patch, the sub-model was composed of humans, sheep and Brucella. The basic reproduction number, disease-free equilibrium and positive equilibrium of the model were discussed. On the other hand, taking Shanxi Province and Hebei Province as examples, we carried out numerical simulations. The results show that the basic reproduction numbers of Shanxi Province and Hebei Province are 0.7497 and 0.5022, respectively, which indicates that the current brucellosis in the two regions has been effectively controlled. To reduce brucellosis faster in the two provinces, there should be a certain degree of sheep immigration from high-infection area to low-infection areas, and reduce the immigration of sheep from low-infection areas to high-infection areas.

Interactions of periodic birth and shearing induce outbreak of Brucellosis in Inner Mongolia

Brucellosis, a zoonotic disease, has brought about enormous human suffering and tremendous economic burden to animal husbandry in China. However, Inner Mongolia is the hardest hit area of brucellosis in China. A total of 132,037 human cases have been reported from 2010 to 2020. Endogenous mechanisms of brucellosis spreading across Inner Mongolia till remains to be revealed. We propose a periodic epidemic model to investigate the effect of periodic parameter changes on brucellosis epidemics. Then we evaluate the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] and analyze the global dynamics of the model. Furthermore, key parameters related to periodic transmission are estimated based on the monthly data of human brucellosis cases and the trend of newly infected human brucellosis cases are predicted in Inner Mongolia. Our modeling results illustrate that periodical birth and sheep shearing play a significant role in inducing periodical outbreak of brucellosis in Inner Mongolia. Moreover, it is exhibited that the annual peak number and the final scale of human brucellosis cases will be reduced dramatically with the delayed peak time of sheep birth. While the annual peak time will be lagged and the annual peak number will be decreased as the peak time of sheep shearing is postponed. In addition, we discover that it is difficult to stem brucellosis even if all sheep are vaccinated besides ewes. Nevertheless, the detection rate exceed a certain value 0.032 or the decaying rate of Brucella surpass a critical value 0.585, the human brucellosis can be regulated in Inner Mongolia according to the sensitivity analysis of [Formula: see text]. The insights shed herein may contribute to the careful implementation of brucellosis control strategies in other regions.

A Model for Brucellosis Disease Incorporating Age of Infection and Waning Immunity

This paper proposes a model for brucellosis transmission. The model takes into account the age of infection and waning immunity, that is, the progressive loss of immunity after recovery. Three routes of transmissions are considered: vertical transmission, and both direct and indirect routes of horizontal transmission. According to the well-posedness results, we provide explicit formulas for the equilibria. Next, we derive the basic reproduction number R0 and prove some stability results depending on the basic reproductive number. Finally, we perform numerical simulations using model parameters estimated from biological data to confirm our theoretical results. The results of these simulations suggest that for certain values of parameters, there will be periodic outbreaks of epidemics, and the disease will not be eradicated from the population. Our results also highlight the fact that the birth rate of cattle significantly influences the dynamics of the disease. The proposed model can be of a good use in studying the effects of vaccination on the cattle population.

Data-driven dynamical modelling of the transmission of African swine fever in a few places in China

Since the outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) in Shengyang, it has continued spreading in China. In the early stage of the epidemic, multi-point and concentrated outbreaks were mainly in the swill feeding areas. In this paper, we developed compartmental models to investigate the transmission of ASF in several raising units including Guquan, Jinba and Liancheng. Using the data collected from these three infected premises, we calibrated the models to estimate that the average incubation period was between 8 and 11 days, the onset period was about 2-3 days and the basic reproductive number was about 4.83-11.90. We also estimated the infection on the day before culling to be 45.24% (Guquan), 89.20% (Jinba) and 16.35% (Liancheng), respectively. The infection rate of Guquan could reach about 74.8% if culling were postponed by 2 days. We found that the infection was significantly higher than the morbidities (22.11% (Guquan), 49.35% (Jinba) and 12.94% (Liancheng)) calculated by actual statistical data. Besides, we simulated and compared the control effect of stopping transport, disinfecting, stopping swill and culling. Our findings suggest that any single measure was not enough to prevent the spread of ASF on a regional level but the combined measures is the key. Under the current situation, fully culling was recognized as most effective in controlling the epidemic, despite the culling of uninfected pigs.

Transmission modelling of environmentally persistent zoonotic diseases: a systematic review

Transmission of many infectious diseases depends on interactions between humans, animals, and the environment. Incorporating these complex processes in transmission dynamic models can help inform policy and disease control interventions. We identified 20 diseases involving environmentally persistent pathogens (ie, pathogens that survive for more than 48 h in the environment and can cause subsequent human infections), of which indirect transmission can occur from animals to humans via the environment. Using a systematic approach, we critically appraised dynamic transmission models for environmentally persistent zoonotic diseases to quantify traits of models across diseases. 210 transmission modelling studies were identified and most studies considered diseases of domestic animals or high-income settings, or both. We found that less than half of studies validated their models to real-world data, and environmental data on pathogen persistence was rarely incorporated. Model structures varied, with few studies considering the animal-human-environment interface of transmission in the context of a One Health framework. This Review highlights the need for more data-driven modelling of these diseases and a holistic One Health approach to model these pathogens to inform disease prevention and control strategies.

Study on immunogenicity and antigenicity of a novel brucella multiepitope recombined protein

Currently, brucellosis is a reemerged zoonotic infectious disease with an increased incidence in recent years. A simple, rapid and sensitive method for diagnosing brucellosis can help to reduce medical burden and economic loss. Previously, a multiple epitope recombinant protein was constructed based on linear B-cell epitope prediction tools. In this study, the recombinant protein was used as an antigen to study the immune response produced by immunized mice, and goat serum was used to verify its diagnostic accuracy. The production of antibodies was successfully induced in the vaccinated mice. Flow cytometric analysis revealed that the percentage of CD4⁺, CD8⁺ and the CD4+/CD8+ ratios were increased by T cell subsets in mouse splenocytes, indicating that the recombinant protein induced a strong immune response had strong immunoreactivity. Using indirect ELISA, the recombinant protein correctly diagnosed positive and negative brucellosis samples. Compared with the whole bacterial antigen, the recombinant protein had a weaker sensitivity but a stronger specificity. Animal experiments showed that the recombinant protein had good antigenicity, and indirect ELISA indicates that it can be used as an antigen to diagnose brucellosis. Therefore, the recombinant protein is a potential candidate antigen for brucellosis vaccine development and serological diagnosis.

Transmission dynamics of brucellosis: Mathematical modelling and applications in China

Brucellosis, the most common zoonotic disease worldwide, represents a great threat to animal husbandry with the potential to cause enormous economic losses. Meanwhile, brucellosis is one of the major public-health problems in China, and the number of human brucellosis cases has increased dramatically in recent years. In order to show the main features of brucellosis transmission in China, we give a systematic review on the transmission dynamics of brucellosis including a series of mathematical models and their applications in China. For different situations, dynamical models of brucellosis transmission in single population and multiple populations are devised based on ordinary differential equations. Furthermore, we revealed the spatial-temporal characteristics and effective control measures of brucellosis transmission. The results may provide new perspectives for the prevention and control of other types of zoonoses.

Modeling the Impact of Seasonal Weather Variations on the Infectiology of Brucellosis

A deterministic mathematical model for brucellosis that incorporates seasonality on direct and indirect transmission parameters for domestic ruminants, wild animals, humans, and the environment was formulated and analyzed in this paper. Both analytical and numerical simulations are presented. From this study, the findings show that variations in seasonal weather have the great impact on the transmission dynamics of brucellosis in humans, livestock, and wild animals. Thus, in order for the disease to be controlled or eliminated, measures should be timely implemented upon the fluctuation in the transmission of the disease.

An estimate of the incidence and quantitative risk assessment of human brucellosis in mainland China

Two epidemiological models were applied to simulate whether animals with latent infections were contagious and calculate the outcomes of people that contracting brucellosis by all possible transmission routes under control measures implemented by the Chinese government. The health and economic burden of brucellosis overall presented an increasing trend from 2004 to 2017. Scenarios from epidemiological models showed that a larger scale of vaccine coverage would contribute to fewer infections in livestock and humans. S2 vaccine, the disinfection of the environment and the protection of the susceptible animals and humans could effectively reverse the trend of increasing brucellosis and reduce the incidence rates of brucellosis in humans to curb the epidemic of brucellosis in China.

Assessing the Impact of Optimal Health Education Programs on the Control of Zoonotic Diseases

To better understand the dynamics of zoonotic diseases, we propose a deterministic mathematical model to study the dynamics of zoonotic brucellosis with a focus on developing countries. The model contains all the relevant biological details, including indirect transmission by the environment. We analyze the essential dynamic behavior of the model and perform an optimal control study to design effective prevention and intervention strategies. The sensitivity analysis of the model parameters is performed. The aim of the controls is tied to reducing the number of infected humans, through health promotional programs within the affected communities. The Pontryagin's Maximum Principle is used to characterize the optimal level of the controls, and the resulting optimality system is solved numerically. Overall, the study demonstrates that through health promotional programs on zoonotic diseases among villagers, it is vital that they should be conducted with high efficacy.

Mathematical analysis of a time-delayed model on brucellosis transmission with disease testing information

Testing–culling is one of the important prevention and control measures considered in the study of animal infectious diseases. However, the process of finding infected animals (animal testing) is still not well studied through the kinetic model. In this paper, based on the characteristics of animal testing, a time-delayed model on brucellosis transmission is established. Under the general hypothesis of biological significance, the existence and stability of equilibria are first investigated. The results find that the global stability of equilibria depends on the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] without the information delay: if [Formula: see text], the disease dies out; if [Formula: see text], the endemic equilibrium exists and the disease persists. Next, the impact of information delay on the dynamics of the model is analyzed and Hopf bifurcation is found in the established model when the information delay is greater than a critical value. Finally, the theoretical results are then further explained through numerical analysis and the significance of these results for the development of risk management measures is elaborated.

Epidemiological features of human brucellosis in Tongliao City, Inner Mongolia province, China: a cross-sectional study over an 11-year period (2007-2017)

OBJECTIVES

To describe the epidemiology of human brucellosis in the past decade and provide evidence of disease control in Tongliao city, which is one of the highest-risk areas of human brucellosis in Inner Mongolia province, China.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

PARTICIPANTS

Clinically and bacteriologically confirmed human brucellosis cases.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

An analysis of the reported cases of human brucellosis during 2007-2017 was carried out to describe the age, sex and occupational distributions of the cases. The time series analysis model and the geographical information system were explored to describe the seasonality and spatiotemporal distribution, respectively, at the county level.

RESULTS

A total of 13 938 cases of human brucellosis was collected in Tongliao from 2007 to 2017; the majority was aged 25 years to 59 years (85.4%) and the male-to-female ratio was 2.64:1; most of them were agriculturalists (81.9%) and pastoralists (12.4%). The incidence rates increased dramatically from 9.22/100 000 in 2007 to 69.16/100 000 in 2011 with an annual increase of 14.99%. They decreased during 2012-2016 (annual decrease of 8.37%) and rose again in 2017 (44.32/100 000). The disease peaked during March-July, with a clear periodicity and trend of monthly anterior displacement since 2012. Jarud Banner, the region located in the north-west of Tongliao, had the highest accumulated incidence rate (130.1/100 000) compared with other counties. The high-risk regions were spread from the north-west to the south and east of Tongliao during the past decade.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of human brucellosis in Tongliao was aggravated during the past decade and peaked during March-July. High-risk areas were mainly concentrated in the counties with extensive prairies and livestock.

Microsatellite analysis reveals extensive gene flow, and lack of population structure in the farm populations of Haemonchus contortus in northern China

The parasitic nematode Haemonchus contortus is economically an important parasite of small ruminants across the globe. China is the world's largest producer, consumer, and importer of mutton. With ubiquitous distribution across the country H. contortus is one of the potential candidates to cause huge economic losses to small ruminant farming industry in China. We herein investigated genetic diversity and population structure of six farm populations of H. contortus in northern China, and also compared them to H. contortus isolates from UK and Australia. We first prepared individual DNA samples from 240 adult worms, and generated genotyping data using eight microsatellite markers. Obtained data was then subjected to allelic frequency and population genetic analyses. The overall allelic richness (mean/locus/pop = 7.375 ± 0.844-10.125 ± 1.109), and expected heterozygosity (mean/locus/pop = 0.646 ± 0.040-0.735 ± 0.025) indicated high degree of population genetic variation across the Chinese isolates. Low level of genetic differentiation (Fst = 0.010-0.066) was observed across all the populations. AMOVA results showed high level of variation (93%) within the populations. PCA analysis revealed mixed clustering of all the populations with no visible geographical sub-structuring. Finally the population admixture analysis resulted in extensive admixing of genotypes across all the populations. With these findings we conclude that there is no obvious population genetic structure with extensive gene flow across all the farm populations of H. contortus in northern China.

Brucellosis seroprevalence in ovine and caprine flocks in China during 2000-2018: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Brucellosis remains one of the most common zoonotic diseases globally, with more than half million human cases reported annually. Brucellosis is an emerging and re-emerging disease in China since the 1990s. An infectious reservoir constituted by domestic animals with brucellosis, especially ovine and caprine herds, poses a significant threat to public health. The seroprevalence of brucellosis in sheep and goat flocks in a national context is unavailable so far. Therefore, we conducted this systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the overall status of brucellosis in sheep and goats in China in almost two decades.

Results

The pooled prevalence of brucellosis in ovine and caprine flocks in China increased in 2000–2009 (1.00%; 95% CI, 0.70–1.30) to 2010–2018 (3.20%; 95% CI, 2.70–3.60). The seroprevalence of brucellosis in sheep and goat flocks was higher in Eastern China, with 7.00% of positive rate, than that in any other region, especially Shandong province (18.70%). Brucellosis is highly endemic in some local regions. The high prevalence of brucellosis in agricultural regions is suggestive of a shift of geographic distribution. The pooled prevalence of brucellosis is higher in goat flocks than in sheep flocks in China.

Conclusions

The overall data in this meta-analysis demands comprehensive intervention measures and further surveillance to facilitate the control of brucellosis in livestock. Further studies aimed at evaluating the risk factors associated with spreads of brucellosis in domestic animals unaddressed so far, and sufficient epidemiological data is important to the exploration and understanding of the prevalent status of brucellosis throughout the country and to disease control.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12917-018-1715-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

On the dynamics of brucellosis infection in bison population with vertical transmission and culling

We introduce a new mathematical modeling framework that seek to improve our quantitative understanding of the influence of chronic brucellosis and culling control on brucellosis dynamics in periodic and non-periodic environments. We conduct both epidemic and endemic analysis, with a focus on the threshold dynamics characterized by the basic reproduction numbers. In addition, we also perform an optimal control study to explore optimal culling strategy in periodic and non-periodic environment.

Genetic Characterization of Animal Brucella Isolates from Northwest Region in China

Animal brucellosis is a reemerging disease in China, particular in northwest China. The Brucella species (even genus) are highly conserved; therefore the use of Multilocus sequencing typing (MLST: based on conserved housekeeping loci) is more suitable for discrimination at species or biovar level on Brucella. In this study, MLST was used to analyze the characterization of Brucella from sheep and yaks during 2015 and 2016. All 66 isolates were collected from northwest China, including Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Qinghai, and Gansu provinces. Isolates were cultured on Brucella agar medium and identified by MLST. MLST identified five ST types: ST8 (n = 55), ST7 (n = 2), ST3 (n = 5), ST1 (n = 2), and ST14 (n = 2). This analysis revealed that B. melitensis isolates exhibited high single genotypes (ST8) in the most northwest China. MLST of isolates provides helpful information on understanding genetic characterization of Brucella in northwest China.

Enzootic situation and molecular epidemiology of Brucella in livestock from 2011 to 2015 in Qingyang, China

A large-scale survey was conducted in domestic animal populations from 2011 to 2015 in Qingyang, China. A total of 448,398 animals from different districts of Qingyang were tested for the presence of Brucella-specific antibodies using the Rose Bengal Plate Test (RBPT) and the Standard Agglutination Test (SAT). From 2011 to 2015, the yearly average positive rates were between 0.04 and 4.75% in the eight counties tested. In addition, the prevalence rates were between 0 and 9.96% in these eight counties. Sheep was the dominant host of Brucella in Qingyang, and the prevalence rate in sheep (2.74%) was higher than those in the other animals tested. Identification of 10 Brucella isolates from sheep confirmed that the epidemic strains were B. melitensis biovar 3 (n = 9) and B. melitensis biovar 1 (n = 1). MLVA-11 (multiple-locus variable-number tandem repeat analysis) analysis of the 10 isolates showed three genotypes: genotype 116 (n = 8), genotype 115 (n = 1) and genotype 136 (n = 1). Furthermore, analysis of the whole-genome sequences of the representative B. melitensis strain QY1 indicated that this isolate was closely related to isolates from China and India. The results of serum epidemiology confirmed that the region of northern Qingyang was a critical Brucella epidemic area and that the disease showed a rising trend, especially from 2013 to 2015. An analysis of the isolate genotypes suggested that sheep brucellosis mainly resulted from conventional B. melitensis (East Mediterranean group), although the external strain (American group) also occurred in Qingyang.

Transmission dynamics and optimal control of brucellosis in Inner Mongolia of China

A multigroup model is developed to characterize brucellosis transmission, to explore potential effects of key factors, and to prioritize control measures. The global threshold dynamics are completely characterized by theory of asymptotic autonomous systems and Lyapunov direct method. We then formulate a multi-objective optimization problem and, by the weighted sum method, transform it into a scalar optimization problem on minimizing the total cost for control. The existence of optimal control and its characterization are well established by Pontryagin's Maximum Principle. We further parameterize the model and compute optimal control strategy for Inner Mongolia in China. In particular, we expound the effects of sheep recruitment, vaccination of sheep, culling of infected sheep, and health education of human on the dynamics and control of brucellosis. This study indicates that current control measures in Inner Mongolia are not working well and Brucellosis will continue to increase. The main finding here supports opposing unregulated sheep breeding and suggests vaccination and health education as the preferred necessary emergency intervention control. The policymakers must take a new look at the current control strategy, and, in order to control brucellosis better in Inner Mongolia, the governments have to preemptively press ahead with more effective measures.

Molecular epidemiological characterization of Brucella isolates from sheep and yaks in northwest China

Animal brucellosis is a re-emerging disease in China with high prevalence in the northwest region. A total of 66 isolates of Brucella were recovered from sheep and yaks in the Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Qinghai and Gansu provinces of northwest China in 2015 and 2016. Using classical biotyping and the Brucella AMOS PCR assay, all isolates were identified as Brucella melitensis biovar 3 (n = 58), B. melitensis biovar 1 (n = 1), Brucella abortus (n = 5), or Brucella suis biovar 3 (n = 2), and B. melitensis biovar 3 was found to be mainly responsible for sheep brucellosis in northwest China. Multilocus variable-number tandem-repeat analysis (MLVA) was used to identify the epidemiological relationships among the isolates and to assess their genetic diversity. Multilocus variable-number tandem-repeat analysis-16 identified 46 genotypes in these populations, including 37 unique and nine shared genotypes. Multilocus variable-number tandem-repeat analysis-11 showed that 71% of the isolates (47 of 66) were genotype 116 (1-5-3-13-2-2-3-2-4-41-8), a characteristic subgroup of the East Mediterranean group, showing that isolates from different geographical areas exhibit similar epidemiological characteristics in different regions and may be epidemiologically linked. Multilocus variable-number tandem-repeat analysis-11 also revealed that an isolate from Inner Mongolia had a novel genotype, 369 (1-5-3-13-2-2-3-2-7-41-8). Multilocus variable-number tandem-repeat analysis-16 genotyping of northwest China Brucella isolates allows a better understanding of the epidemiology of animal brucellosis in this region. This study is the first analysis of B. melitensis in Gansu province, and the results confirmed that in this province, isolates of this species are disorderly and unsystematic.

Model-Based Evaluation of Strategies to Control Brucellosis in China

Brucellosis, the most common zoonotic disease worldwide, represents a great threat to animal husbandry with the potential to cause enormous economic losses. Brucellosis has become a major public health problem in China, and the number of human brucellosis cases has increased dramatically in recent years. In order to evaluate different intervention strategies to curb brucellosis transmission in China, a novel mathematical model with a general indirect transmission incidence rate was presented. By comparing the results of three models using national human disease data and 11 provinces with high case numbers, the best fitted model with standard incidence was used to investigate the potential for future outbreaks. Estimated basic reproduction numbers were highly heterogeneous, varying widely among provinces. The local basic reproduction numbers of provinces with an obvious increase in incidence were much larger than the average for the country as a whole, suggesting that environment-to-individual transmission was more common than individual-to-individual transmission. We concluded that brucellosis can be controlled through increasing animal vaccination rates, environment disinfection frequency, or elimination rates of infected animals. Our finding suggests that a combination of animal vaccination, environment disinfection, and elimination of infected animals will be necessary to ensure cost-effective control for brucellosis.

Epidemic characteristics, high-risk townships and space-time clusters of human brucellosis in Shanxi Province of China, 2005-2014

Background

Brucellosis, one of the world’s most important zoonosis, has been re-emerging in China. Shanxi Province, located in northern China, where husbandry development has been accelerated in recent years, has a rather high incidence of human brucellosis but drew little attention from the researchers. This study aimed to describe the changing epidemiology of human brucellosis in Shanxi Province from 2005 to 2014 and explore high-risk towns and space-time clusters for elucidating the necessity of decentralizing disease control resource to township level in epidemic regions, particularly in hotspot areas.

Methods

We extracted data from the Chinese National Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting System to describe the incidence and spatiotemporal distribution of human brucellosis in Shanxi Province. Geographic information system was used to identify townships at high risk for the disease. Space-Time Scan Statistic was applied to detect the space-time clusters of human brucellosis during the past decade.

Results

From 2005 to 2014, a total of 50,002 cases of human brucellosis were recorded in Shanxi, with a male-to-female ratio of 3.9:1. The reported incidence rate increased dramatically from 7.0/100,000 in 2005 to 23.5/100,000 in 2014, with an average annual increase of 14.5%. There were still 33.8% cases delaying diagnosis in 2014. The proportion of the affected towns increased from 31.5% in 2005 to 82.5% in 2014. High-risk towns spread from the north to the center and then south of Shanxi Province, which were basins and adjacent highlands suitable for livestock cultivation. During the past decade, there were 55 space-time clusters of human brucellosis detected in high risk towns; the clusters could happen in any season. Some clusters’ location maintained stable over time.

Conclusions

During the last decade, Shanxi province’s human brucellosis epidemic had been aggravated and high-risk areas concentrated in some towns located in basins and adjacent highlands. Space-time clusters existed and some located steadily over time. Quite a few cases still missed timely diagnosis. Greater resources should be allocated and decentralized to mitigate the momentum of rise and improve the accessibility of prompt diagnosis treatment in the high-risk townships.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-016-2086-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Modelling Seasonal Brucellosis Epidemics in Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture of Xinjiang, China, 2010-2014

Brucellosis is one of the severe public health problems; the cumulative number of new human brucellosis cases reached 211515 from 2010 to 2014 in China. Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture is situated in the southeast of Xinjiang, where brucellosis infection occurs every year. Based on the reported data of newly acute human brucellosis cases for each season in Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture, we proposed a susceptible, exposed, infected, and vaccinated (SEIV) model with periodic transmission rates to investigate the seasonal brucellosis transmission dynamics among sheep/cattle and from sheep/cattle to humans. Compared with the criteria of MAPE and RMSPE, the model simulations agree to the data on newly acute human brucellosis. We predict that the number of newly acute human brucellosis is increasing and will peak 15325 [95% CI: 11920-18242] around the summer of 2023. We also estimate the basic reproduction number R₀ = 2.5524 [95% CI: 2.5129-2.6225] and perform some sensitivity analysis of the newly acute human brucellosis cases and the basic reproduction number R₀ in terms of model parameters. Our study demonstrates that reducing the birth number of sheep/cattle, raising the slaughter rate of infected sheep/cattle, increasing the vaccination rate of susceptible sheep/cattle, and decreasing the loss rate of vaccination are effective strategies to control brucellosis epidemic.

Modelling the role of multi-transmission routes in the epidemiology of bovine tuberculosis in cattle and buffalo populations

A mathematical model that describes the transmission dynamics of bovine tuberculosis (BTB) in both buffalo and cattle populations is proposed. The model incorporates cross-infection and contaminated environment transmission routes. A full analysis of the model is undertaken. The reproduction number of the entire model is comprised of cross-infection and contaminated parameters. This underscores the importance of including both cross-infection and contaminated environment transmission routes. Crucially our simulations suggest that the disease has a more devastating effect on cattle populations than on buffalo populations when all transmission routes are involved. This has important implications for agriculture and tourism.

Human brucellosis occurrences in inner mongolia, China: a spatio-temporal distribution and ecological niche modeling approach

BACKGROUND

Brucellosis is a common zoonotic disease and remains a major burden in both human and domesticated animal populations worldwide. Few geographic studies of human Brucellosis have been conducted, especially in China. Inner Mongolia of China is considered an appropriate area for the study of human Brucellosis due to its provision of a suitable environment for animals most responsible for human Brucellosis outbreaks.

METHODS

The aggregated numbers of human Brucellosis cases from 1951 to 2005 at the municipality level, and the yearly numbers and incidence rates of human Brucellosis cases from 2006 to 2010 at the county level were collected. Geographic Information Systems (GIS), remote sensing (RS) and ecological niche modeling (ENM) were integrated to study the distribution of human Brucellosis cases over 1951-2010.

RESULTS

Results indicate that areas of central and eastern Inner Mongolia provide a long-term suitable environment where human Brucellosis outbreaks have occurred and can be expected to persist. Other areas of northeast China and central Mongolia also contain similar environments.

CONCLUSIONS

This study is the first to combine advanced spatial statistical analysis with environmental modeling techniques when examining human Brucellosis outbreaks and will help to inform decision-making in the field of public health.

Prediction and control of brucellosis transmission of dairy cattle in Zhejiang Province, China

Brucellosis is a bacterial disease caused by brucella; mainly spread by direct contact transmission through the brucella carriers, or indirect contact transmission by the environment containing large quantities of bacteria discharged by the infected individuals. At the beginning of 21st century, the epidemic among dairy cows in Zhejiang province, began to come back and has become a localized prevalent epidemic. Combining the pathology of brucellosis, the reported positive data characteristics, and the feeding method in Zhejiang province, this paper establishes an dynamic model to excavate the internal transmission dynamics, fit the real disease situation, predict brucellosis tendency and assess control measures in dairy cows. By careful analysis, we give some quantitative results as follows. (1) The external input of dairy cows from northern areas may lead to high fluctuation of the number of the infectious cows in Zhejiang province that can reach several hundreds. In this case, the disease cannot be controlled and the infection situation cannot easily be predicted. Thus, this paper encourages cows farms to insist on self-supplying production of the dairy cows. (2) The effect of transmission rate of brucella in environment to dairy cattle on brucellosis spreading is greater than transmission rate of the infectious dairy cattle to susceptible cattle. The prevalence of the epidemic is mainly aroused by environment transmission. (3) Under certain circumstances, the epidemic will become a periodic phenomenon. (4) For Zhejiang province, besides measures that have already been adopted, sterilization times of the infected regions is suggested as twice a week, and should be combined with management of the birth rate of dairy cows to control brucellosis spread.

Transmission dynamics and control for a brucellosis model in Hinggan League of Inner Mongolia, China

Brucellosis is one of the major infectious and contagious bacterial diseases in Hinggan League of Inner Mongolia, China. The number of newly infected human brucellosis data in this area has increased dramatically in the last 10 years. In this study, in order to explore effective control and prevention measures we propose a deterministic model to investigate the transmission dynamics of brucellosis in Hinggan League. The model describes the spread of brucellosis among sheep and from sheep to humans. The model simulations agree with newly infected human brucellosis data from 2001 to 2011, and the trend of newly infected human brucellosis cases is given. We estimate that the control reproduction number Rc is about 1.9789 for the brucellosis transmission in Hinggan League and compare the effect of existing mixed cross infection between basic ewes and other sheep or not for newly infected human brucellosis cases. Our study demonstrates that combination of prohibiting mixed feeding between basic ewes and other sheep, vaccination, detection and elimination are useful strategies in controlling human brucellosis in Hinggan League.

Seroprevalence investigation of bovine brucellosis in Macenta and Yomou, Guinea

Brucellosis is one of the world's major zoonotic diseases associated with reproductive disorders and a potential infection of human. Brucellosis leads to serious economic losses due to late-term abortion, stillbirth, weak calves, and sterility. In Guinea, the data on brucellosis was only detected as far back as 10 years ago. The purpose of this study was to estimate the prevalence of bovine brucellosis in the provinces of Macenta and Yomou of Guinea. A structured questionnaire was used in the clinical study, and 345 cattle were clinically examined. Three hundred serum samples were initially subjected to the Rose Bengal test (RBT); the positive results of which were confirmed by the complement fixation test (CFT). The investigation indicated that farmers had little information on brucellosis. Hygroma, abortion, sterility, and placental retention were the observed symptoms. Of the 29 RBT-positive samples, 26 were confirmed by CFT. The prevalence of brucellosis in Macenta and Yomou was 12 and 5.33 %, respectively. In both provinces, the prevalence mean was 8.67 %. This study highlighted the immediate necessity to carry out a strengthened surveillance of human and animal brucellosis to obtain as many data as possible in order to establish strategies for prevention and management of brucellosis in Guinea.

Retrospective and prospective perspectives on zoonotic brucellosis

Members of the genus Brucella are pathogenic bacteria exceedingly well adapted to their hosts. The bacterium is transmitted by direct contact within the same host species or accidentally to secondary hosts, such as humans. Human brucellosis is strongly linked to the management of domesticated animals and ingestion of their products. Since the domestication of ungulates and dogs in the Fertile Crescent and Asia in 12000 and 33000 ya, respectively, a steady supply of well adapted emergent Brucella pathogens causing zoonotic disease has been provided. Likewise, anthropogenic modification of wild life may have also impacted host susceptibility and Brucella selection. Domestication and human influence on wild life animals are not neutral phenomena. Consequently, Brucella organisms have followed their hosts’ fate and have been selected under conditions that favor high transmission rate. The “arm race” between Brucella and their preferred hosts has been driven by genetic adaptation of the bacterium confronted with the evolving immune defenses of the host. Management conditions, such as clustering, selection, culling, and vaccination of Brucella preferred hosts have profound influences in the outcome of brucellosis and in the selection of Brucella organisms. Countries that have controlled brucellosis systematically used reliable smooth live vaccines, consistent immunization protocols, adequate diagnostic tests, broad vaccination coverage and sustained removal of the infected animals. To ignore and misuse tools and strategies already available for the control of brucellosis may promote the emergence of new Brucella variants. The unrestricted use of low-efficacy vaccines may promote a “false sense of security” and works towards selection of Brucella with higher virulence and transmission potential.

Determination of original infection source of H7N9 avian influenza by dynamical model

H7N9, a newly emerging virus in China, travels among poultry and human. Although H7N9 has not aroused massive outbreaks, recurrence in the second half of 2013 makes it essential to control the spread. It is believed that the most effective control measure is to locate the original infection source and cut off the source of infection from human. However, the original infection source and the internal transmission mechanism of the new virus are not totally clear. In order to determine the original infection source of H7N9, we establish a dynamical model with migratory bird, resident bird, domestic poultry and human population, and view migratory bird, resident bird, domestic poultry as original infection source respectively to fit the true dynamics during the 2013 pandemic. By comparing the date fitting results and corresponding Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) values, we conclude that migrant birds are most likely the original infection source. In addition, we obtain the basic reproduction number in poultry and carry out sensitivity analysis of some parameters.