Normative models for neuroimaging markers: Impact of model selection, sample size and evaluation criteria

Personalizing progressive changes to brain structure in Alzheimer's disease using normative modeling

INTRODUCTION

Neuroanatomical normative modeling captures individual variability in Alzheimer's disease (AD). Here we used normative modeling to track individuals' disease progression in people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and patients with AD.

METHODS

Cortical and subcortical normative models were generated using healthy controls (n ≈ 58k). These models were used to calculate regional z scores in 3233 T1-weighted magnetic resonance imaging time-series scans from 1181 participants. Regions with z scores < -1.96 were classified as outliers mapped on the brain and summarized by total outlier count (tOC).

RESULTS

tOC increased in AD and in people with MCI who converted to AD and also correlated with multiple non-imaging markers. Moreover, a higher annual rate of change in tOC increased the risk of progression from MCI to AD. Brain outlier maps identified the hippocampus as having the highest rate of change.

DISCUSSION

Individual patients' atrophy rates can be tracked by using regional outlier maps and tOC.

HIGHLIGHTS

Neuroanatomical normative modeling was applied to serial Alzheimer's disease (AD) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data for the first time. Deviation from the norm (outliers) of cortical thickness or brain volume was computed in 3233 scans. The number of brain-structure outliers increased over time in people with AD. Patterns of change in outliers varied markedly between individual patients with AD. People with mild cognitive impairment whose outliers increased over time had a higher risk of progression from AD.

Normative Neuroimaging Library: Designing a Comprehensive and Demographically Diverse Dataset of Healthy Controls to Support Traumatic Brain Injury Diagnostic and Therapeutic Development

The past decade has seen impressive advances in neuroimaging, moving from qualitative to quantitative outputs. Available techniques now allow for the inference of microscopic changes occurring in white and gray matter, along with alterations in physiology and function. These existing and emerging techniques hold the potential of providing unprecedented capabilities in achieving a diagnosis and predicting outcomes for traumatic brain injury (TBI) and a variety of other neurological diseases. To see this promise move from the research lab into clinical care, an understanding is needed of what normal data look like for all age ranges, sex, and other demographic and socioeconomic categories. Clinicians can only use the results of imaging scans to support their decision-making if they know how the results for their patient compare with a normative standard. This potential for utilizing magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in TBI diagnosis motivated the American College of Radiology and Cohen Veterans Bioscience to create a reference database of healthy individuals with neuroimaging, demographic data, and characterization of psychological functioning and neurocognitive data that will serve as a normative resource for clinicians and researchers for development of diagnostics and therapeutics for TBI and other brain disorders. The goal of this article is to introduce the large, well-curated Normative Neuroimaging Library (NNL) to the research community. NNL consists of data collected from ∼1900 healthy participants. The highlights of NNL are (1) data are collected across a diverse population, including civilians, veterans, and active-duty service members with an age range (18-64 years) not well represented in existing datasets; (2) comprehensive structural and functional neuroimaging acquisition with state-of-the-art sequences (including structural, diffusion, and functional MRI; raw scanner data are preserved, allowing higher quality data to be derived in the future; standardized imaging acquisition protocols across sites reflect sequences and parameters often recommended for use with various neurological and psychiatric conditions, including TBI, post-traumatic stress disorder, stroke, neurodegenerative disorders, and neoplastic disease); and (3) the collection of comprehensive demographic details, medical history, and a broad structured clinical assessment, including cognition and psychological scales, relevant to multiple neurological conditions with functional sequelae. Thus, NNL provides a demographically diverse population of healthy individuals who can serve as a comparison group for brain injury study and clinical samples, providing a strong foundation for precision medicine. Use cases include the creation of imaging-derived phenotypes (IDPs), derivation of reference ranges of imaging measures, and use of IDPs as training samples for artificial intelligence-based biomarker development and for normative modeling to help identify injury-induced changes as outliers for precision diagnosis and targeted therapeutic development. On its release, NNL is poised to support the use of advanced imaging in clinician decision support tools, the validation of imaging biomarkers, and the investigation of brain-behavior anomalies, moving the field toward precision medicine.

Structural connectome architecture shapes the maturation of cortical morphology from childhood to adolescence

Cortical thinning is an important hallmark of the maturation of brain morphology during childhood and adolescence. However, the connectome-based wiring mechanism that underlies cortical maturation remains unclear. Here, we show cortical thinning patterns primarily located in the lateral frontal and parietal heteromodal nodes during childhood and adolescence, which are structurally constrained by white matter network architecture and are particularly represented using a network-based diffusion model. Furthermore, connectome-based constraints are regionally heterogeneous, with the largest constraints residing in frontoparietal nodes, and are associated with gene expression signatures of microstructural neurodevelopmental events. These results are highly reproducible in another independent dataset. These findings advance our understanding of network-level mechanisms and the associated genetic basis that underlies the maturational process of cortical morphology during childhood and adolescence.

Network-Based Spreading of Gray Matter Changes Across Different Stages of Psychosis

Importance

Psychotic illness is associated with anatomically distributed gray matter reductions that can worsen with illness progression, but the mechanisms underlying the specific spatial patterning of these changes is unknown.

Objective

To test the hypothesis that brain network architecture constrains cross-sectional and longitudinal gray matter alterations across different stages of psychotic illness and to identify whether certain brain regions act as putative epicenters from which volume loss spreads.

Design, Settings, and Participants

This case-control study included 534 individuals from 4 cohorts, spanning early and late stages of psychotic illness. Early-stage cohorts included patients with antipsychotic-naive first-episode psychosis (n = 59) and a group of patients receiving medications within 3 years of psychosis onset (n = 121). Late-stage cohorts comprised 2 independent samples of people with established schizophrenia (n = 136). Each patient group had a corresponding matched control group (n = 218). A sample of healthy adults (n = 356) was used to derive representative structural and functional brain networks for modeling of network-based spreading processes. Longitudinal illness-related and antipsychotic-related gray matter changes over 3 and 12 months were examined using a triple-blind randomized placebo-control magnetic resonance imaging study of the antipsychotic-naive patients. All data were collected between April 29, 2008, and January 15, 2020, and analyses were performed between March 1, 2021, and January 14, 2023.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Coordinated deformation models were used to estimate the extent of gray matter volume (GMV) change in each of 332 parcellated areas by the volume changes observed in areas to which they were structurally or functionally coupled. To identify putative epicenters of volume loss, a network diffusion model was used to simulate the spread of pathology from different seed regions. Correlations between estimated and empirical spatial patterns of GMV alterations were used to quantify model performance.

Results

Of 534 included individuals, 354 (66.3%) were men, and the mean (SD) age was 28.4 (7.4) years. In both early and late stages of illness, spatial patterns of cross-sectional volume differences between patients and controls were more accurately estimated by coordinated deformation models constrained by structural, rather than functional, network architecture (r range, >0.46 to <0.57; P < .01). The same model also robustly estimated longitudinal volume changes related to illness (r ≥ 0.52; P < .001) and antipsychotic exposure (r ≥ 0.50; P < .004). Network diffusion modeling consistently identified, across all 4 data sets, the anterior hippocampus as a putative epicenter of pathological spread in psychosis. Epicenters of longitudinal GMV loss were apparent in posterior cortex early in the illness and shifted to the prefrontal cortex with illness progression.

Conclusion and Relevance

These findings highlight a central role for white matter fibers as conduits for the spread of pathology across different stages of psychotic illness, mirroring findings reported in neurodegenerative conditions. The structural connectome thus represents a fundamental constraint on brain changes in psychosis, regardless of whether these changes are caused by illness or medication. Moreover, the anterior hippocampus represents a putative epicenter of early brain pathology from which dysfunction may spread to affect connected areas.

Personalising Alzheimer's Disease progression using brain atrophy markers

INTRODUCTION

Neuroanatomical normative modelling can capture individual variability in Alzheimer's Disease (AD). We used neuroanatomical normative modelling to track individuals' disease progression in people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and patients with AD.

METHODS

Cortical thickness and subcortical volume neuroanatomical normative models were generated using healthy controls (n~58k). These models were used to calculate regional Z-scores in 4361 T1-weighted MRI time-series scans. Regions with Z-scores <-1.96 were classified as outliers and mapped on the brain, and also summarised by total outlier count (tOC).

RESULTS

Rate of change in tOC increased in AD and in people with MCI who converted to AD and correlated with multiple non-imaging markers. Moreover, a higher annual rate of change in tOC increased the risk of MCI progression to AD. Brain Z-score maps showed that the hippocampus had the highest rate of atrophy change.

CONCLUSIONS

Individual-level atrophy rates can be tracked by using regional outlier maps and tOC.