Assessing the severity of acute pancreatitis (ASAP) in Switzerland: A nationwide survey on severity assessment in daily clinical practice

Association between serum creatinine to albumin ratio and short- and long-term all-cause mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis admitted to the intensive care unit: a retrospective analysis based on the MIMIC-IV database

Background

Serum creatinine (Cr) and albumin (Alb) are important predictors of mortality in individuals with various diseases, including acute pancreatitis (AP). However, most previous studies have only examined the relationship between single Cr or Alb levels and the prognosis of patients with AP. To our knowledge, the association between short- and long-term all-cause mortality in patients with AP and the blood creatinine to albumin ratio (CAR) has not been investigated. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the short- and long-term relationships between CAR and all-cause mortality in patients with AP.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective study utilizing data from the Medical Information Market for Intensive Care (MIMIC-IV) database. The study involved analyzing various mortality variables and obtaining CAR values at the time of admission. The X-tile software was used to determine the optimal threshold for the CAR. Kaplan-Meier (K-M) survival curves and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to assess the relationship between CAR and both short- and long-term all-cause mortality. The predictive power, sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve (AUC) of CAR for short- and long-term mortality in patients with AP after hospital admission were investigated using Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis. Additionally, subgroup analyses were conducted.

Results

A total of 520 participants were included in this study. The CAR ideal threshold, determined by X-tile software, was 0.446. The Cox proportional hazards model revealed an independent association between CAR≥0.446 and all-cause mortality at 7-day (d), 14-d, 21-d, 28-d, 90-d, and 1-year (y) before and after adjustment for confounders. K-M survival curves showed that patients with CAR≥0.446 had lower survival rates at 7-d, 14-d, 21-d, 28-d, 90-d, and 1-y. Additionally, CAR demonstrated superior performance, with higher AUC values than Cr, Alb, serum total calcium, Glasgow Coma Scale, Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome score, and Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment score at 7-d, 14-d, 21-d, 28-d, 90-d, and 1-y intervals. Subgroup analyses showed that CAR did not interact with a majority of subgroups.

Conclusion

The CAR can serve as an independent predictor for short- and long-term all-cause mortality in patients with AP. This study enhances our understanding of the association between serum-based biomarkers and the prognosis of patients with AP.

Association between lactate-to-albumin ratio and 28-days all-cause mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis: A retrospective analysis of the MIMIC-IV database

Objective

The Lactate-to-Albumin Ratio (LAR) has been applied as a new predictor in sepsis, heart failure, and acute respiratory failure. However, the role of LAR in predicting all-cause mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis has not been evaluated. Therefore, this study aimed to elucidate the correlation between LAR and 28-d all-cause mortality in patients with Acute Pancreatitis (AP).

Methods

This study is a retrospective cohort study with the data from the MIMIC-IV (v1.0) database. We included adult patients with acute pancreatitis who were admitted to the intensive care unit in the study. The primary outcome was to evaluate the ability of LAR to predict death at 28-d of hospital admission in patients with AP.

Results

A total of 539 patients with acute pancreatitis were included in this study. They were divided into a survival group (486 patients) and a death group (53 patients) according to whether they survived within 28-d of admission, and the mortality rate of patients within 28-d of admission was 9.8%. LAR was shown to be an independent predictor of all-cause mortality within 28-d of admission in patients with AP by multivariate COX regression analysis (HR, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.23 - 2.05; P < 0.001). the Area Under the Curve (AUC) value for LAR was 74.26% (95% CI: 67.02% - 81.50%), which was higher than that for arterial blood lactate (AUC = 71.25%) and serum albumin (AUC = 65.92%) alone. It was not inferior even when compared to SOFA (AUC = 75.15%). The optimal cutoff value for separating the survival and death groups according to Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) was found to be 1.1124. plotting Kaplan-Meier analysis with this cutoff value showed that patients with LAR ≥ 1.1124 had significantly higher all-cause mortality within 28-d of admission than those with LAR < 1.1124 (P < 0.001). The final subgroup analysis showed no significant interaction of LAR with each subgroup (P for interaction: 0.06 - 0.974).

Conclusion

LAR can be used as an independent predictor of all-cause mortality in AP patients within 28-d of admission, with superior prognostic performance than arterial blood lactate or serum albumin alone.

Development and Evaluation of a Nomogram to Predict the Eventual Severity of the First Episode of Acute Pancreatitis

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this research was to establish a nomogram for early prediction of the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP).

METHODS

A total of 1860 AP patients from 2013 to 2020 were included in this study. According to the 2012 revised Atlanta classification, patients were divided into nonsevere AP group and severe AP (SAP) group. The baseline characteristics and first laboratory indicators after admission between the 2 groups were analyzed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis in training set. R language was used for establishing a predictive nomogram and further verified in validation set.

RESULTS

Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis in the training set showed red blood cell distribution width, d -dimer, apolipoprotein A1, and albumin were independent factors for SAP. A predictive nomogram was accordingly established based on the 4 indicators. Validation on this predictive nomogram showed high internal validation concordance index of 0.940 (95% confidence interval, 0.922-0.958) and high external validation concordance index of 0.943 (95% confidence interval, 0.920-0.966). The calibration curve, receiver operating characteristic curve, and decision curve analysis all showed that the nomogram had good predictive ability.

CONCLUSIONS

This nomogram may be an effective clinical tool for predicting the first episode of SAP.

A Novel Risk-Prediction Scoring System for Sepsis among Patients with Acute Pancreatitis: A Retrospective Analysis of a Large Clinical Database

Background

The prognosis is poor when acute pancreatitis (AP) progresses to sepsis; therefore, it is necessary to accurately predict the probability of sepsis and develop a personalized treatment plan to reduce the disease burden of AP patients.

Methods

A total of 1295 patients with AP and 43 variables were extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC) IV database. The included patients were randomly assigned to the training set and to the validation set at a ratio of 7 : 3. The chi-square test or Fisher's exact test was used to test the distribution of categorical variables, and Student's t-test was used for continuous variables. Multivariate logistic regression was used to establish a prognostic model for predicting the occurrence of sepsis in AP patients. The indicators to verify the overall performance of the model included the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curves, the net reclassification improvement (NRI), the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and a decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

The multifactor analysis results showed that temperature, phosphate, calcium, lactate, the mean blood pressure (MBP), urinary output, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), sodium, platelet count, and albumin were independent risk factors. All of the indicators proved that the prediction performance and clinical profitability of the newly established nomogram were better than those of other common indicators (including SIRS, BISAP, SOFA, and qSOFA).

Conclusions

The new risk-prediction system that was established in this research can accurately predict the probability of sepsis in patients with acute pancreatitis, and this helps clinicians formulate personalized treatment plans for patients. The new model can reduce the disease burden of patients and can contribute to the reasonable allocation of medical resources, which is significant for tertiary prevention.

THE ACCEPTANCE OF CHANGES IN THE MANAGEMENT OF PATIENTS WITH ACUTE PANCREATITIS AFTER THE REVISED ATLANTA CLASSIFICATION

BACKGROUND

New recommendations for the management of patients with acute pancreatitis were set after the Atlanta Classification was revised in 2012.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the present systematic review is to assess whether these recommendations have already been accepted and implemented in daily medical practices.

METHODS

A systematic literature review was carried out in studies conducted with humans and published in English and Portuguese language from 10/25/2012 to 11/30/2018. The search was conducted in databases such as PubMed/Medline, Cochrane and SciELO, based on the following descriptors/Boolean operator: "Acute pancreatitis" AND "Atlanta". Only Randomized Clinical Trials comprising some recommendations released after the revised Atlanta Classification in 2012 were included in the study.

RESULTS

Eighty-nine studies were selected and considered valid after inclusion, exclusion and qualitative evaluation criteria application. These studies were stratified as to whether, or not, they applied the recommendations suggested after the Atlanta Classification revision. Based on the results, 68.5% of the studies applied the recommendations, with emphasis on the application of severity classification (mild, moderately severe, severe); 16.4% of them were North-American and 14.7% were Chinese. The remaining 31.5% just focused on comparing or validating the severity classification.

CONCLUSION

Few studies have disclosed any form of acceptance or practice of these recommendations, despite the US and Chinese efforts. The lack of incorporation of these recommendations didn't enable harnessing the benefits of their application in the clinical practice (particularly the improvement of the communication among health professionals and directly association with the worst prognoses); thus, it is necessary mobilizing the international medical community in order to change this scenario.

Predicting the Severity of Acute Pancreatitis With Red Cell Distribution Width at Early Admission Stage

Red cell distribution width (RDW) has been proposed as an early prognosis marker with increased mortality in variety of pathophysiological conditions. We hypothesized that elevated RDW could be used in judging the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP). We retrospectively and prospectively studied 545 and 72 AP patients, who were admitted to the Shanghai Tenth People's Hospital of Tongji University, respectively. Compared with mild acute pancreatitis, significantly higher RDW was observed in patients with moderately severe acute pancreatitis and sever acute pancreatitis (14.03 ± 1.74% vs. 13.23 ± 1.23%, P < 0.000). RDW values were also found positively correlated with the patient's blood urea nitrogen (r = 0.120, P = 0.026), creatinine (r = 0.182, P = 0.000), age (r = 0.099, P = 0.028), and bedside index of severity in acute pancreatitis scoring system (r = 0.147, P = 0.001), and were negatively correlated with the serum albumin (r = -0.244, P = 0.000). The area under the receiver-operating characteristics was as follows-RDW: 0.677 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.619-0.735, P < 0.000); combination of RDW and albumin: 0.693 (95% CI, 0.625-0.761, P < 0.000); and the optimal cutoff value for RDW to predict whether patients with AP should be in intensive care unit (ICU) was 13.55 with a sensitivity of 54.5% and a specificity of 73.6%. In the validation study, AP with RDW ≥ 13.55% had significantly higher ICU admission ratio than those with RDW < 13.55% (44.4% vs. 9.8%, P < 0.000). In conclusion, RDW is positively associated with AP severity, and is likely a useful predictive parameter of AP severity.

E and P Selectins as Potential Markers in the Assessment of the Severity of Acute Pancreatitis

OBJECTIVES

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is commonly associated with the release of adhesion molecules such as E and P selectins. We designed the present study to evaluate the role of selectins as potential markers that could reflect the severity of the disease.

METHODS

One hundred fifty patients with AP constituted the patient group, whereas 70 healthy volunteers established the control group. In both groups, blood samples were taken for measurements of E selectin, P selectin, caspase-cleaved cytokeratin 18, and total soluble cytokeratin 18 levels on admission and days 1, 2, 4, and 6.

RESULTS

Values of E and P selectins on admission were both elevated compared with control subjects (P < 0.01). The nonsurvivors had higher values of E selectin (P < 0.04) and P selectin (P < 0.03) on admission. Levels of E and P selectin showed positive correlation with the length of stay (P < 0.05). E selectin on admission yielded a sensitivity of 75% and 78% specificity, whereas P selectin had a sensitivity of 67% and 91% specificity.

CONCLUSIONS

Selectin values in the early course of AP may play a role as indicators of overall prognosis, which may help physicians in better understanding the pathophysiology of a benign disease that may have serious and detrimental complications.