Participatory coastal management through elicitation of ecosystem service preferences and modelling driven by "coastal squeeze"

Future losses of ecosystem services due to coastal erosion in Europe

Coastal erosion is a major issue facing Europe that will only worsen under future climate change and the resulting sea level rise. One effect of erosion is the loss of ecosystem services, which are provided by coastal areas, such as provisioning, regulating, habitat, and cultural services. These services can be quantified in monetary terms. Here, we present comprehensive estimates of future decline in coastal ecosystem services due to the erosion of sandy coastlines. We used datasets derived from remote sensing products: a pan-European land cover/use dataset (Corine Land Cover) and new global probabilistic coastal erosion projections constrained by artificial and topographical barriers to erosion. The results include historical changes (2000-2018) and projections under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for 2050 and 2100 together with uncertainty bounds. We estimate that in 2018, the coastal zone (excluding open sea) included 579,700 km² of habitats generating 494 billion euros of services annually. The future sea-level rise could erode 1.0% [90% confidence interval 0.7-1.5%] of the 2018 area under RCP4.5, and 1.2% [0.7-2.2%] under RCP8.5. The decline in services would be even greater: 4.2% [3.0-6.1%] under RCP4.5, and 5.1% [3.3-8.5%] under RCP8.5. The highest absolute losses would be sustained by salt marshes, while relative losses would be highest in beaches, sands, and dunes. The most affected countries in relative economic terms would be Denmark, Albania, Greece, Estonia, and Finland, but countries such as Germany, the Netherlands, and France would be among those losing the largest share of their coastal ecosystem services. Regional analysis using NUTS 3 regions shows high diversity of the impacts, with many regions along the North Sea and eastern Mediterranean Sea that are heavily affected by coastal erosion-induced loss of ecosystem services. The study highlights the urgency of undertaking mitigation actions.

A Goal Programming Model to Guide Decision-Making Processes towards Conservation Consensuses

In this paper we propose a goal programming model that provides a consensual aggregated solution minimizing conflicts to guide multi-stakeholder decision-making processes and generates information regarding stakeholder groups to be exploited for negotiation purposes. This model permits to quantify variations in conflicts when the relative contribution of each criteria changes and gives insight to negotiation strategies with application in conservation areas. A dataset of a case study in the Meseta Ibérica Biosphere Reserve (Portugal-Spain) was used to test and validate the model. Fifty people belonging to four groups (scientists, government, farmers and businesspersons) assessed 20 management objectives in four dimensions: conservation, logistical support, development, and governance. The results showed the highest conflicts to be found for fauna and flora, education, and guarantees objectives while the most conflictive groups were scientists and farmers. The proposed model substantially reduced the global and intergroup conflicts associated to the same objectives, modelling the weights assigned to each objective in each dimension to find the most consensual/least conflictive solutions. This model can be a useful tool to improve complex decision-making processes in conservation areas with strong conflicts between stakeholders, such as transboundary biosphere reserves.

The potential of ecosystem-based management to integrate biodiversity conservation and ecosystem service provision in aquatic ecosystems

Global aquatic biodiversity keeps declining rapidly, despite international efforts providing a variety of policies and legislations that identify goals for, and give directions to protecting the world's aquatic fauna and flora. With the H2020 project AQUACROSS, we have made an unprecedented effort to unify policy strategies, knowledge, and management concepts of freshwater, coastal, and marine ecosystems to support the achievement of the targets set by the EU Biodiversity Strategy to 2020. AQUACROSS has embraced the concept of ecosystem-based management (EBM), which approaches environmental management from a social-ecological system perspective to protect biodiversity and to sustainably harvest ecosystem services. This special issue includes contributions resulting from AQUACROSS, which either tackle selected EBM challenges from a theoretical point of view or apply EBM in one of the selected case studies across Europe. In this article, we introduce relevant topics, address the most important lessons learnt, and suggest where research should go with aquatic EBM. We hope that this special issue will foster and facilitate the uptake of EBM in aquatic ecosystems and, therewith, provide the on-ground applications needed for evaluating EBM's utility to safeguard aquatic biodiversity.

Governance for Sustainability of Estuarine Areas—Assessing Alternative Models Using the Case of Ria de Aveiro, Portugal

Estuaries are one of the most productive and complex types of ecosystems supporting a wide range of economic activities. Departing from a set of governance problems and emergent goals, such as sustainability or climate change adaptation faced by an estuarine case study area, Ria de Aveiro, in Portugal, this article assesses the adequacy of alternative governance models under the existing water resources legal framework and traditional political culture. It shows that apart from the centrally-based compliance model, all other alternatives require high degrees of institutional reforms. Moreover, although the model based on a dedicated new agency, long preferred by many users of Ria de Aveiro, is the most understandable and focused, it does not assure the pursuance of adaptability or collaboration, which are considered essential for estuary governance. As it relies on collective action and multi-level and multi-agent contexts, estuarine governance may require a new institutional design. Where one begins a process of institutional change, however, is not a simple issue to address and demands a deeper analysis, particularly on the types of required institutional changes, as well as on their impacts on policy and decision-making outcomes over estuarine environments and associated socio-ecological networks.

Risk to the supply of ecosystem services across aquatic ecosystems

The capacity of ecosystems to supply ecosystem services is decreasing. Sustaining this supply requires an understanding of the links between the impacts of pressures introduced by human activities and how this can lead to changes in the supply of services. Here, we apply a novel approach, assessing 'risk to ecosystem service supply' (RESS), across a range of aquatic ecosystems in seven case studies. We link aggregate impact risk from human activities on ecosystem components, with a relative score of their potential to supply services. The greatest RESS is found where an ecosystem component with a high potential to supply services is subject to high impact risk. In this context, we explore variability in RESS across 99 types of aquatic ecosystem component from 11 realms, ranging from oceanic to wetlands. We explore some causes of variability in the RESS observed, including assessment area, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and population density. We found that Lakes, Rivers, Inlets and Coastal realms had some of the highest RESS, though this was highly dependent on location. We found a positive relationship between impact risk and service supply potential, indicating the ecosystem components we rely on most for services, are also those most at risk. However, variability in this relationship indicates that protecting the supply of ecosystem services alone will not protect all parts of the ecosystem at high risk. Broad socio-economic factors explained some of the variability found in RESS. For example, RESS was positively associated with GDP and artificial and agricultural land use in most realms, highlighting the need to achieve balance between increasing GDP and sustaining ecosystem health and human wellbeing more broadly. This approach can be used for sustainable management of ecosystem service use, to highlight the ecosystem components most critical to supplying services, and those most at risk.

Linking biodiversity to ecosystem services supply: Patterns across aquatic ecosystems

Global initiatives have been increasingly focusing on mainstreaming the values of biodiversity and ecosystem services into decision-making at all levels. Due to the accelerated rate at which biodiversity is declining and its consequences for the functioning of ecosystems and subsequently, the services they provide, there is need to develop comprehensive assessments of the services and the benefits nature delivers to society. Based on expert evaluation, we identified relevant flow linkages in the supply-side of the socio-ecological system, i.e. from biodiversity to ecosystem services supply for eight case studies across European aquatic ecosystems covering freshwater, transitional, coastal and marine waters realms. Biological mediated services were considered, as well as those reliant on purely physical aspects of the ecosystem, i.e. abiotic outputs, since both have implications for spatial planning, management and decision-making. Due to the multidimensional nature of ecosystems and their biodiversity, our approach used ecosystem components such as habitats and biota as proxies for biodiversity and as the focal point for linkage identification. Statistical analysis revealed the importance of considering mobile biota in the spatial assessment of habitats. Contrary to literature evidences so far, our results showed significantly different and complementary ecosystem services supply patterns across the continuum of aquatic realms. The implemented score of ecosystem services supply has a high potential for integrated aquatic ecosystem service supply assessments in the context of ecosystem-based management.

Identification of conservation and restoration priority areas in the Danube River based on the multi-functionality of river-floodplain systems

Large river-floodplain systems are hotspots of biodiversity and ecosystem services but are also used for multiple human activities, making them one of the most threatened ecosystems worldwide. There is wide evidence that reconnecting river channels with their floodplains is an effective measure to increase their multi-functionality, i.e., ecological integrity, habitats for multiple species and the multiple functions and services of river-floodplain systems, although, the selection of promising sites for restoration projects can be a demanding task. In the case of the Danube River in Europe, planning and implementation of restoration projects is substantially hampered by the complexity and heterogeneity of the environmental problems, lack of data and strong differences in socio-economic conditions as well as inconsistencies in legislation related to river management. We take a quantitative approach based on best-available data to assess biodiversity using selected species and three ecosystem services (flood regulation, crop pollination, and recreation), focused on the navigable main stem of the Danube River and its floodplains. We spatially prioritize river-floodplain segments for conservation and restoration based on (1) multi-functionality related to biodiversity and ecosystem services, (2) availability of remaining semi-natural areas and (3) reversibility as it relates to multiple human activities (e.g. flood protection, hydropower and navigation). Our approach can thus serve as a strategic planning tool for the Danube and provide a method for similar analyses in other large river-floodplain systems.

Ecosystem-based management planning across aquatic realms at the Ria de Aveiro Natura 2000 territory

Ria de Aveiro represents a coastal territory, in which its natural capital, mostly classified under a Natura 2000 network of protected areas, is of paramount importance for the regional and national economy, supporting harbour activities and maritime traffic, agriculture, commercial fisheries, aquaculture, manufacturing, tourism, sports and recreational activities. Current and foreseen changes connected to human activities, namely land and water uses and potential conflicts, in frame of environmental policies, sustainable economic development and human well-being require the implementation of ecosystem-based management (EBM) planning processes considering the connectivity across marine, transitional, freshwater, and terrestrial domains. The main objective is to elaborate on the co-development of the EBM planning process across the three water domains, all characterized by high biodiversity and by the wide range of services provided by ecosystems and their abiotic components, for the mitigation of impacts from the management plan under implementation. The approach used follows a stepwise procedure in frame of resilience principles, considering the analysis of the relationship between the social and ecological components and on how these can be connected through risk assessment and a spatial multi-criteria analysis based on the delivery of ecosystem services. Stakeholders' perception matched the ecosystem services provisioning risk assessment and supported the planning EBM response that consist in saltmarshes and seagrasses meadows restoration programs. Compliance of the proposed measures is achievable regarding policies (policy targets and policy instruments) and feasibility (scientific and technological knowledge and financial resources). The EBM response can support the Vouga estuary management plan and regional smart specialization (RIS3 Centro).