Increased drought events in southwest China revealed by tree ring oxygen isotopes and potential role of Indian Ocean Dipole

Interactive effects of climate-atmospheric cycling on aquatic communities and ecosystem shifts in mountain lakes of southeastern Tibetan Plateau

Recent climate warming and atmospheric reactive nitrogen (Nr) deposition are affecting a broad spectrum of physical, ecological and human systems that may be irreversible on a century time scale and have the potential to cause regime shifts in ecological systems. These changes may alter the limnological conditions with important but still unclear effects on lake ecosystems. We present changes in cladoceran with comparisons to diatom assemblages over the past ~200 years from high-resolution, well-dated sediment cores retrieved from six high mountain lakes in the southeastern (SE) margin of the Tibetan Plateau. Our findings suggest that warming and the exponential increase of atmospheric Nr deposition are the major drivers of ecological regime changes. Shifts in cladoceran and diatom communities in high alpine lakes began over a century ago and intensified since 1950 CE, indicating a regional-scale response to anthropogenic climate warming. Zooplankton in the forest lakes showed asynchronous trajectories, with increased Nr deposition as a significant explanatory factor. Forest lakes with higher dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations partially buffered the impacts of Nr deposition with little structural change, while lakes with low DOC display symptoms of resilience loss related to Nr deposition. Biological community compositional turnover in subalpine lakes has shown marked shifts, equivalent to those of low-elevation lakes strongly affected by direct human impacts. This suggests that local effects override climatic forcing and that lake basin features modified by anthropogenic activity act as basin-specific filters of common forcing. Our results indicate that snow and glacial meltwaters along with nutrient enrichment related to climate warming and atmospheric Nr deposition, represent major threats for lake ecosystems, even in remote areas. We reveal that climate and atmospheric contaminants will further impact ecological conditions and alter aquatic food webs in higher altitude biomes if climate and anthropogenic forcing continue.

Tree-rings stable isotope (δ18O and δ2H) based 368 years long term precipitation reconstruction of South Eastern Kashmir Himalaya

The hydroclimatic variability in Kashmir Himalaya is influenced by the western disturbances and the Indian Summer Monsoon. To investigate long-term hydroclimatic variability, 368 years tree-ring oxygen and hydrogen isotope ratios (δ18O and δ2H) extending from 1648 to 2015 CE were analysed. These isotopic ratios are calculated using five core samples of Himalayan silver fir (Abies pindrow) collected from the south-eastern region of Kashmir valley. The relationship between the long and short periodicity components of δ18O and δ2H suggested that physiological processes had a minimum effect on the tree-ring stable isotopes in Kashmir Himalaya. The δ18O chronology was developed based on the average of five-individual tree-ring δ18O time series covering the time span of 1648-2015 CE. The climate response analysis revealed the strongest and most significant negative correlation between tree ring δ18O and precipitation amount from the previous year's December to current year's August (D2Apre). The reconstructed D2Apre (D2Arec) explains precipitation variability from 1671 to 2015 CE and is supported by historical and other proxy-based hydroclimatic records. The reconstruction has two distinguishing features: first, it is characterized by stable wet conditions during the last phase of Little Ice Age (LIA) i.e., from 1682 to 1841 CE; and second, the southeast Kashmir Himalaya had experienced drier conditions as compared to recent and historical period with intense pluvial events since 1850. The present reconstruction shows, there have been more extreme dry events than extreme wet events since 1921. A tele-connection is observed between D2Arec and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) of the Westerly region.

Quantitative temperature and relative humidity changes recorded by the Lake Cuoqia in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau during the past 300 years

High-elevation lakes on the Tibetan Plateau have the advantage of sensitive response to climate changes. Multiple proxy records in lake sediments can provide a large amount of extractable information for paleoclimate reconstructions and assessing the position of recent global warming within the context of natural climate variability. In this study, we reconstruct the climatic and environmental changes over the past 300 years from a remote alpine lake (Lake Cuoqia) in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau using multiple proxies including branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs), n-alkanes, elements, fatty acids and their hydrogen isotopes. Due to ice-cover nature of lake surface during winter, brGDGTs mainly reflect the variation in warm-season temperature from March to October, supported by nearby instrumental data. Our reconstructed high-resolution temperature showed a continuous cooling trend between 1700 and 1950 AD, followed by a rapid warming afterward, in parallel with other proxies such as n-alkanes and fatty acids in the same core, which is also consistent with previously published regional temperature records. The hydrogen isotope (δD) of fatty acids, similar to regional tree-ring δ18O, can record the history of atmospheric precipitation isotope and further indicate the variations of regional relative humidity. Our record exhibited a long-term decrease since 1700 AD, in accord with the decreasing lake level inferred from the ratio of Fe/Mn. The combined pattern of reconstructed temperature and relative humidity showed consistent changes before 1950 AD toward to a gradually cold-dry trend, whereas started to decouple afterward. Before 1950 AD, the declined temperature and relative humidity are mainly driven by insolation and thermal contrast between the Indian-Pacific Ocean and south Asian continent. After 1950 AD, decoupling of temperature and relative humidity may be related to the increased regional evaporation and human-induced emission of greenhouse gases and aerosol.

Synergistic effects of climate warming and atmospheric nutrient deposition on the alpine lake ecosystem in the south-eastern Tibetan Plateau during the Anthropocene

Alpine lakes on the Tibetan Plateau are highly sensitive to global change and have been recognized as the sentinel of climate warming. However, anthropogenic impacts in populated area are migrating to these remote areas via transporting particulate nutrients by atmospheric deposition. Whether warming and nutrient deposition would impose additive or synergistic effects on the lake ecosystem remains largely unknown. Here, we present multi-proxy (sediment pigment and geochemistry) records during the past two centuries at the Cuoqia Lake in the southeast Tibetan Plateau. We found that the lake exhibited rapid ecological changes since 1980 AD characterized by an increase in primary productivity due to algal proliferation, with more rapid growth of green algae and diatoms. These findings are in concert with many other lakes (e.g., Moon Lake and Shade Co) in the same area, suggesting a consistent pattern of ecosystem evolution at the region scale. Statistical analyses suggested that nutrient deposition and climate warming were strongly associated with the variations in primary productivity and algae composition, exerting both individual and interactive effects. In addition, scenario analyses with a well-established process-based ecosystem model further revealed that the two factors not only individually, but also synergistically promoted the algal proliferation and community succession. Such synergy is evident in that the effect of lake warming would be more pronounced under higher nutrient deposition scenario, which is potentially due to higher temperature-driven mineralization in warmer conditions, and higher efficiency of nutrient utilization under enhanced light availability attributing to declining ice thickness and duration in cold seasons. Overall, our study proposes the existence and quantifies the synergistic impacts of climate warming and anthropogenic activities in driving the ecological changes in remote alpine lakes on the Tibetan Plateau. The lake ecological consequences driven by individual factor would be worsen by such synergy, so that we cannot predict the lake ecosystem trajectory in the future based on each factor separately, and more efforts than previously expected would be needed for the lake restoration and management.

Tree-ring δ18O climate signals vary among tree functional types in South Asian tropical moist forests

We present the first annually resolved and statistically reliable tree-ring δ¹⁸O (δ¹⁸O_T) chronologies for the three South Asian tropical moist forest tree species (Chukrasia tabularis A. Juss., Toona ciliata M. Roem., and Lagerstroemia speciosa Roxb.) which differ in their shade tolerance and resistance to water stress. We found significantly higher mean δ¹⁸O_T values in light-demanding T. ciliata than in intermediate shade tolerant C. tabularis and shade tolerant L. speciosa (p < 0.001). δ¹⁸O_T in C. tabularis was mainly influenced by pre-monsoon vapor pressure deficit (VPD; r = -0.54, p < 0.01) and post monsoon maximum temperature (T_max) (r = 0.52, p < 0.01). δ¹⁸O_T in T. ciliata was strongly negatively correlated with a dry season drought index PDSI (r = -0.65, p < 0.001) and VPD (r = -0.58, p < 0.001). Pre-monsoon T_max was strongly positively linked with δ¹⁸O_T in L. speciosa (r = 0.65, p < 0.001), indicating that climatic influences on δ¹⁸O_T are species-specific and vary among tree functional types. Although there was a week correlation between local precipitation and δ¹⁸O_T in our studied species, we found a strong correlation between δ¹⁸O_T and precipitation at a larger spatial scale. Linear mixed effect models revealed that multiple factors improved model performance only in C. tabularis, yielding the best model, which combined VPD and T_max. The top models in T. ciliata and L. speciosa included only the single factors PDSI and T_max, highlighting that the way C. tabularis interacts with climate is more complex when compared with other two species. Our analyses suggest that stable oxygen isotope composition in tree rings of South Asian tropical moist forest trees are a suitable proxy of local and regional climate variability and are an important tool for understanding the physiological mechanisms associated with the global hydrological cycle.

Spatiotemporal drought analysis by the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) in Sichuan Province, China

Drought refers to a meteorological disaster that causes insufficient soil moisture and damage to crop water balance due to long-term lack of precipitation. With the increasing shortage of water resources, drought has become one of the hot issues of global concern. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) can effectively reflect the changes in drought characteristics of different geomorphologies in Sichuan on time and space scales, to explore the difference in drought characteristics between different physiognomy types in Sichuan Province, We calculated the SPI and SPEI values based on the data of 44 meteorological stations in Sichuan Province from 1961 to 2019 and used Mann–Kendall trend test and multivariable linear regression method (MLR) to quantify the significance of the drought characteristic trends at different time and space scales. The results as follow: (1) The SPEI drought trend in plain and hilly regions was greater than that in plateau and mountain regions on all time scales (− 0.039 year⁻¹ for 1-month in hilly, − 0.035 year⁻¹ for 1-month in plain, − 0.14 year⁻¹ for 1-month in plateau, − 0.026 year⁻¹ for 1-month in mountain) and the magnitude of trend of eastern (− 4.4 to 0.1 year⁻¹) was lager than western (− 2.1 to 2.7 year⁻¹), means that the drought trends transfer from northwest to east. (2) The drought intensity in the western region gradually increased (0.54–1.05) and drought events mainly occurred in the southwest plateau and central mountainous regions (24–47 times), means that drought meteorological hotspots were mainly concentrated in the Sichuan basin. (3) The MLR indicated altitude (H) is not the main influencing factor that causes the spatial unevenness of precipitation in Sichuan Province, but altitude (H), temperature (T), longitude (L_o) and latitude (L_a) can co-determined the precipitation. The results of this study are instructive and practical for drought assessment, risk management and application decision-making in Sichuan Province, and have guiding significance for agricultural disaster prevention, mitigation and agricultural irrigation in Sichuan Province.

Oxygen Isotopes in Tree Rings from Greenland: A New Proxy of NAO

We present the first Greenlandic tree ring oxygen isotope record (δ18OGTR), derived from four birch trees collected from the Qinguadalen Valley in southwestern Greenland in 1999. Our δ18O record spans from 1950–1999 and is significantly and positively correlated with winter ice core δ18O from southern Greenland. δ18OGTR records are positively correlated with southwestern Greenland January–August mean temperatures. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) reconstructions have been developed from a variety of proxies, but never with Greenlandic tree rings, and our δ18OGTR record is significantly correlated with NAO (r = −0.64), and spatial correlations with sea-level pressure indicate a classic NAO pressure seesaw pattern. These results may facilitate a longer NAO reconstruction based on long time series of tree ring δ18O records from Greenland, provided that subfossil wood can be found in areas vacated by melting glaciers.

Response of tree rings to earthquakes during the past 350 years at Jiuzhaigou in the eastern Tibet

Trees growing in the tectonically active and climatically sensitive regions, such as the Tibetan Plateau, frequently suffer damage from strong earthquakes and extreme hydro-climatic events. Spruce trees in the Jiuzhaigou National Park exhibited abrupt periods of growth suppression with durations of 3-9 years, which was demonstrated to have recorded five seismic events during the last 350 years after excluding the climatic impacts. The ring-width reductions occurred immediately after earthquakes in the growing seasons of 1748, 1879 and 2017, and one year later in 1961 when the earthquake occurred after the growing season in 1960. In contrast, seismic signals of the 1976 earthquake were moderated in the tree-ring indices by improved climatic conditions in 1975. The intensity prediction equation and isoseismal modelling results suggested that past earthquakes required a minimum intensity threshold of 6.2-6.8 MMI to significantly impact tree growth, thus indicating a minimum magnitude threshold of M_w5.3 for near-field (≤20 km) earthquakes and M_w7.4 for regional (≤115 km) earthquakes. These results would greatly improve the dendroseismological reconstruction of past earthquake characteristics and the valid assessment of future probabilities in the eastern Tibet, and help to identify and eliminate seismic signals in the dendroclimatological studies in the hazardous environments.