Economic, land use, and ecosystem services impacts of Rwanda's Green Growth Strategy: An application of the IEEM+ESM platform

Land use land cover change in the African Great Lakes Region: a spatial-temporal analysis and future predictions

The African Great Lakes Region has experienced substantial land use land cover change (LULCC) over the last decades, driven by a complex interplay of various factors. However, a comprehensive analysis exploring the relationships between LULCC, and its explanatory variables remains unexplored. This study focused on the Lake Kivu catchment in Rwanda, analysing LULCC from 1990 to 2020, identifying major variables, and predicting future LULC scenarios under different development trajectories. Image classification was conducted in Google Earth Engine using random forest classifier, by incorporating seasonal composites Landsat images, spectral indices, and topographic features, to enhance discrimination and capture seasonal variations. The results demonstrated an overall accuracy exceeding 83%. Historical analysis revealed significant changes, including forest loss (26.6 to 18.7%) and agricultural land expansion (27.7 to 43%) in the 1990-2000 decade, attributed to political conflicts and population movements. Forest recovery (24.8% by 2020) was observed in subsequent decades, driven by Rwanda's sustainable development initiatives. A Multi-Layer Perceptron neural network from Land Change Modeler predicted distinct 2030 and 2050 LULC scenarios based on natural, socio-economic variables, and historical transitions. Analysis of explanatory variables highlighted the significant role of proximity to urban centers, population density, and terrain in LULCC. Predictions indicate distinct trajectories influenced by demographic and socio-economic trends. The study recommends adopting the Green Growth Economy scenario aligned with ongoing conservation measures. The findings contribute to identifying opportunities for land restoration and conservation efforts, promoting the preservation of Lake Kivu catchment's ecological integrity, in alignment with national and global goals.

A Review of Ecological Assets and Ecological Products Supply: Implications for the Karst Rocky Desertification Control

Ecological assets refer to natural resource assets that can provide ecological products and services for human beings. Researching ecological assets and the supply of ecological products contributes to the sustainable development of natural-social-economic complex systems. This study conducts a literature search and statistical analysis based on the Web of Science, CNKI and Foreign Journal Resource Service System of Guizhou Normal University Library literature databases. We review 117 publications on the studies of ecological assets and ecological products supply. Based on summarizing the landmark results, the key scientific issues that need to be solved are proposed, and their implications for karst rocky desertification control are discussed. The results show that: (1) the number of publications each year from 2001 to 2020 shows a fluctuating growth trend. (2) The research concentrates on four dimensions: theoretical, evaluation, mechanism, and strategies research. Among them, evaluation research is the focus and hotspot of the research. (3) It is necessary to expand the research on the definition and distinction of ecological assets, services and products; the evaluation system of ecological products; the supply mechanism of ecological products from the perspective of resource endowment and the research of ecosystem coherence at different scales. (4) The karst rocky desertification control should focus on ecological assets' management to promote the supply capacity of ecological products, pay attention to the quality assessment of ecological assets, explore the influencing mechanism of ecological assets and its optimization and promotion paths and strengthen the research on village ecosystems under karst rocky desertification control.

How the ecosystem extent is changing: A national-level accounting approach and application

Assessing the spatial and temporal changes in ecosystems is essential to account for natural capital contribution to human well-being. However, various methods to quantify these changes challenge the development of reliable values which can be integrated into national statistical accounts. Following the international system of environmental-economic accounting framework, which recently adopts an ecosystem accounting standard. We present a novel approach to develop an ecosystem extent account from existing ecosystem classifications. This study shows the spatial and statistical extent account of 26 ecosystems (i.e. forests, grasslands, croplands, and urban, among others) between 1970 and 2015 at the national scale. Extent accounts were developed at a resolution of 25 m and provided reliable information on how ecosystem types have changed over time in Spain. Our results reflect three main patterns in the extension account: (i) an increase in forest ecosystems, (ii) a considerable decrease in agroecosystems (especially annual croplands), and (iii) substantial development of urban areas. To the best of our knowledge, this method is the first attempt to develop a robust methodology to measure the extent of ecosystems at the national level. The proposed approach is crucial for a strong knowledge of ecosystem dynamics and their implications for ecosystem conditions and services at a national level. This has potential applications in urban planning, green infrastructure development, and multiple uses for territory management and policies, integrating natural capital into official statistics and mainstreaming ecosystems into national-level planning and monitoring processes.

Green Growth, Green Technology, and Environmental Health: Evidence From High-GDP Countries

Green growth is an exceptional strategy for sustainable development. It provides a pathway to combat environmental issues and the use of natural resources. This study investigates the effects of green technology and environmental factors on green growth in high-gross domestic product (GDP) countries from 2000 to 2020. In addition, it also probes the linear and nonlinear effects of GDP on green growth. To do so, we employ an advanced econometric approach, e.g., a cross-sectional autoregressive distributed lags estimator for long and short runs. The outcomes demonstrate that the linear effect of GDP is positive for green growth. On the contrary, the nonlinear effect of GDP has a negative magnitude for green growth. Besides, green technology substantially increases green growth. Energy consumption is found to be an important influencer, and it decreases green growth. Environmental factors such as emissions, according to the findings, also reduce green growth in the sample countries. It is worth noting that the joint effects of energy consumption and emissions deteriorate green growth in countries. Based on empirical findings, for policy makers, this study suggests that high-GDP countries should manage their economic and environmental activities in order to increase the amount of green growth that may protect the ecological environment.

Natural Capital Accounting for Land in Rwanda

Land, as a valuable natural resource, is an important pillar of Rwanda’s sustainable development. The majority of Rwanda’s 80% rural population rely on agriculture for their livelihood, and land is crucial for agriculture. However, since a high population density has made land a scarce commodity, growth in the agricultural sector and plans for rapid urbanisation are being constrained, and cross-sectoral trade-offs are becoming increasingly important, with a risk that long-term sustainability may be threatened if these trade-offs are not considered. To help track land value trends and assess trade-offs, and to help assess the sustainability of trends in land use and land cover, Rwanda has begun developing natural capital accounts for land in keeping with the United Nations’ System of Environmental-Economic Accounting. This paper reports on Rwanda’s progress with these accounts. The accounting approach adopted in our study measures changes in land use and land cover and quantifies stocks for the period under study (2014–2015). Rwanda is one of the first developing countries to develop natural capital accounts for land, but the wide range of possible uses in policy analysis suggests that such accounts could be useful for other countries as well.