New walking and cycling infrastructure and modal shift in the UK: A quasi-experimental panel study

Potential for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions savings from replacing short motorcycle trips with active travel modes in Vietnam

In reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, there is a recognition triggered by the pandemic of the role that walking and cycling (active travel) can make to substitute motorized travel, particularly on short trips. However, there is a lack of evidence at the micro level on the realistic, empirically derived, potential of these options. Here, we used reliable tracing data to examine the potential of these mitigation options for reducing GHG emissions in Vietnam. Apart from similar categories of travel purposes as in other studies, we decided to categorize "visit relatives" and "eating out" as two more separate categories of travel purposes in Vietnamese case, which together accounts for nearly 16% of total trips. We discovered that 65% of all motorcycle trips in this case study were less than 3 miles in duration, therefore active travel was able to create a significant impact on GHG emissions from personal travel. Active travel can replace 62% of short motorcycle trips if considering travel patterns and constraints while saving 18% of GHG emissions that would have come from motorized transport. If active travel can further replace all shopping trips normally done by motorcycles, in total being equivalent to 84% of short trips, 22% of GHG emissions from motorcycles can be reduced. It should be noticed that active travels have time cost implications, impacting economy at both household and city levels, but from a comprehensive "co-benefit" standpoint, this transformation could act as a catalyst for addressing traffic congestion, air pollution, and even community health and well-being in urban areas.

Minimum-Cost Fast-Charging Infrastructure Planning for Electric Vehicles along the Austrian High-Level Road Network

Given the ongoing transformation of the transport sector toward electrification, expansion of the current charging infrastructure is essential to meet future charging demands. The lack of fast-charging infrastructure along highways and motorways is a particular obstacle for long-distance travel with battery electric vehicles (BEVs). In this context, we propose a charging infrastructure allocation model that allocates and sizes fast-charging stations along high-level road networks while minimizing the costs for infrastructure investment. The modeling framework is applied to the Austrian highway and motorway network, and the needed expansion of the current fast-charging infrastructure in place is modeled under different future scenarios for 2030. Within these, the share of BEVs in the car fleet, developments in BEV technology and road traffic load changing in the face of future modal shift effects are altered. In particular, we analyze the change in the requirements for fast-charging infrastructure in response to enhanced driving range and growing BEV fleets. The results indicate that improvements in the driving range of BEVs will have limited impact and hardly affect future costs of the expansion of the fast-charging infrastructure. On the contrary, the improvements in the charging power of BEVs have the potential to reduce future infrastructure costs.

Building back better: The COVID-19 pandemic and transport policy implications for a developing megacity

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected human mobility via lockdowns, social distancing rules, home quarantines, and the full or partial suspension of transportation. Evidence-based policy recommendations are urgently needed to ensure that transport systems have resilience to future pandemic outbreaks, particularly within Global South megacities where demand for public transport is high and reduced access can exacerbate socio-economic inequalities. This study focuses on Metro Manila - a characteristic megacity that experienced one of the most stringent lockdowns worldwide. It analyzes aggregated cell phone and GPS data from Google and Apple that provide a comprehensive representation of mobility behavior before and during the lockdown. While significant decreases are observed for all transport modes, public transport experienced the largest drop (-74.5 %, on average). The study demonstrates that: (i) those most reliant on public transport were disproportionately affected by lockdowns; (ii) public transport was unable to fulfil its role as public service; and, (iii) this drove a paradigm shift towards active mobility. Moving forwards, in the short-term policymakers must promote active mobility and prioritize public transport to reduce unequal access to transport. Longer-term, policymakers must leverage the increased active transport to encourage modal shift via infrastructure investment, and better utilize big data to support decision-making.

Promoting Sustainable Mobility: A Perspective from Car and Public Transport Users

Sustainable mobility is becoming a key factor in improving the quality of life of the residents and increasing physical activity (PA) levels. The current situation of sustainable mobility and its analysis is a first step in understanding the factors that would encourage residents to discover and choose alternative modes of travel. The present study examined the factors that encourage the choice of active modes of travel among urban adult population. Walking and cycling were analyzed as the most sustainable forms of urban mobility from the perspective of car and public transport (PT) users. Total of 902 subjects aged 18 years or older were analyzed in the study to assess commuting habits in Kaunas city, Lithuania. The majority (61.1%) of the respondents used a passenger vehicle, 28.2% used PT, and only 13.5% used active modes of travel. The results showed that safer pedestrian crossings, and comfortable paths were the most significant factors that encourage walking. A wider cycling network, and bicycle safety were the most important incentives for the promotion of cycling. Our findings show that the main factors encouraging walking and cycling among car and PT users are similar, however, the individual characteristics that determine the choice of these factors vary significantly.

Transformation of Trolleybus Transport in Poland. Does In-Motion Charging (Technology) Matter?

Transport in cities is one of the most important sources of emissions. Electromobility is an essential element in the catalogue of activities of local authorities aimed at combating climate change. Over the years trolleybus transport has been characterised by both phases of development and regression and is still an essential component of zero-emission urban transport in about 300 cities worldwide. The development of electricity storage technology, especially in the form of a battery, has opened up new prospects for this mode of transport. A trolleybus equipped with a battery (in-motion charging technology) gains unique characteristics for operation independent of the catenary. This study presents the approach for assessing the development of in-motion charging for trolleybuses in all Polish cities operating this means of transport. A set of KPIs has therefore, been set and analysed. The analysis covers a comparison between 2014 and 2019, aimed at showing the development of technological innovations in this field. The results clearly show that in-motion charging technology leads to the development of trolleybus transport, although this development has mainly a qualitative dimension. A key factor determining the development of trolleybus transport using in-motion charging technology is progress in the development of traction batteries.

A systematic review of empirical and simulation studies evaluating the health impact of transportation interventions

Urban transportation is an important determinant of health and environmental outcomes, and therefore essential to achieving the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals. To better understand the health impacts of transportation initiatives, we conducted a systematic review of longitudinal health evaluations involving: a) bus rapid transit (BRT); b) bicycle lanes; c) Open Streets programs; and d) aerial trams/cable cars. We also synthesized systems-based simulation studies of the health-related consequences of walking, bicycling, aerial tram, bus and BRT use. Two reviewers screened 3302 unique titles and abstracts identified through a systematic search of MEDLINE (Ovid), Scopus, TRID and LILACS databases. We included 39 studies: 29 longitudinal evaluations and 10 simulation studies. Five studies focused on low- and middle-income contexts. Of the 29 evaluation studies, 19 focused on single component bicycle lane interventions; the rest evaluated multi-component interventions involving: bicycle lanes (n = 5), aerial trams (n = 1), and combined bicycle lane/BRT systems (n = 4). Bicycle lanes and BRT systems appeared effective at increasing bicycle and BRT mode share, active transport duration, and number of trips using these modes. Of the 10 simulation studies, there were 9 agent-based models and one system dynamics model. Five studies focused on bus/BRT expansions and incentives, three on interventions for active travel, and the rest investigated combinations of public transport and active travel policies. Synergistic effects were observed when multiple policies were implemented, with several studies showing that sizable interventions are required to significantly shift travel mode choices. Our review indicates that bicycle lanes and BRT systems represent promising initiatives for promoting population health. There is also evidence to suggest that synergistic effects might be achieved through the combined implementation of multiple transportation policies. However, more rigorous evaluation and simulation studies focusing on low- and middle-income countries, aerial trams and Open Streets programs, and a more diverse set of health and health equity outcomes is required.

Road lighting density and brightness linked with increased cycling rates after-dark

Cycling has a range of benefits as is recognised by national and international policies aiming to increase cycling rates. Darkness acts as a barrier to people cycling, with fewer people cycling after-dark when seasonal and time-of-day factors are accounted for. This paper explores whether road lighting can reduce the negative impact of darkness on cycling rates. Changes in cycling rates between daylight and after-dark were quantified for 48 locations in Birmingham, United Kingdom, by calculating an odds ratio. These odds ratios were compared against two measures of road lighting at each location: 1) Density of road lighting lanterns; 2) Relative brightness as estimated from night-time aerial images. Locations with no road lighting showed a significantly greater reduction in cycling after-dark compared with locations that had some lighting. A nonlinear relationship was found between relative brightness at a location at night and the reduction in cyclists after-dark. Small initial increases in brightness resulted in large reductions in the difference between cyclist numbers in daylight and after-dark, but this effect reached a plateau as brightness increased. These results suggest only a minimal amount of lighting can promote cycling after-dark, making it an attractive mode of transport year-round.

The atmospheric impacts of initiatives advancing shifts towards low-emission mobility: A scoping review

In an urban environment, people's daily traffic choices are reflected in emissions and the resulting local air composition, or air quality. Traffic contributes to the emissions of both carbon dioxide (CO₂), affecting climate, and particulate matter (PM), affecting atmospheric chemistry and human health. While the development of city infrastructure is not in the hands of individuals, it is their transport mode choices that constitute traffic. In this scoping review we analyse 108 initiatives from around the world potentially influencing individual travel behaviour and producing changes in the shares of different transport modes (modal shifts). The targets, types and techniques of initiatives are identified. Examples of economic, regulative, structural and persuasive initiatives are included. Special focus is on whether the impacts on CO₂ emissions, PM emissions and/or PM concentrations have been quantitatively evaluated, and on the quality and results of the evaluations. We observe that a variety of targets can motivate actions that lead to modal shifts and emission reductions. The results indicate that the level of atmospheric evaluations is low: absolute or relative changes in emissions and/or concentrations had been evaluated for only 31% (N = 34) of the reviewed initiatives, with substantial heterogeneity in quality. Sanctions, such as congestion charge and restrictions, have more likely been evaluated in peer reviewed analyses than incentives. Scientific evaluations of impacts on ambient PM concentrations are especially scarce (N = 4), although Air Quality is the primary target of 13% of actions and secondary target for at least 12%. We discuss the determinants of success and failure, when it comes to different types of initiatives, emission reductions and evaluations. A high-quality evaluation of atmospheric impacts captures the following: correct data about the modal shift (rate and direction), exclusion of external factors affecting the shift and emissions, and possible indirect impacts of the shift.

Environmental Effects of Electromobility in a Sustainable Urban Public Transport

This article has taken up an issue concerning the influence of the implementation of electromobility assumptions on reduction of air pollution in cities in terms of sustainable urban transport systems. The essential nature of the subject is confirmed by the following figures: transport is responsible for almost 25% of greenhouse gas emissions in Europe and is the main cause of air pollution in cities, almost 90% of city dwellers in the EU are exposed to levels of air pollutants deemed harmful by the WHO, and approximately 95% of vehicles on European roads still use fossil fuels. Therefore, the implemented transport policy, both in the international and domestic aspect of particular countries, is facing the need to significantly reduce the negative influence of transport on people and the environment. Electromobility has become one of the concepts that makes it possible to achieve this goal. Its main objective is to reduce emissions of harmful substances into the environment by deploying electric vehicles (EVs). Research conducted by the authors showed that public transport, apart from the obvious effect of decreased number of private vehicles and decreased congestion, can contribute to reduced air pollutant emissions and become a significant driver for the implementation of electromobility in cities. However, the achievement of this goal depends on taking appropriate actions not only in the transport branch but also in other sectors of economy. The following research methods were applied in the article: literature analysis, documentary method, case study, and mathematical methods. The research area was the city of Szczecin, Poland.

A systematic review of the effect of infrastructural interventions to promote cycling: strengthening causal inference from observational data

Background

Previous reviews have suggested that infrastructural interventions can be effective in promoting cycling. Given inherent methodological complexities in the evaluation of such changes, it is important to understand whether study results obtained depend on the study design and methods used, and to describe the implications of the methods used for causality. The aims of this systematic review were to summarize the effects obtained in studies that used a wide range of study designs to assess the effects of infrastructural interventions on cycling and physical activity, and whether the effects varied by study design, data collection methods, or statistical approaches.

Methods

Six databases were searched for studies that evaluated infrastructural interventions to promote cycling in adult populations, such as the opening of cycling lanes, or the expansion of a city-wide cycling network. Controlled and uncontrolled studies that presented data before and after the intervention were included. No language or date restrictions were applied. Data was extracted for any outcome presented (e.g. bikes counted on the new infrastructure, making a bike trip, cycling frequency, cycling duration), and for any purpose of cycling (e.g. total cycling, recreational cycling, cycling for commuting). Data for physical activity outcomes and equity effects was extracted, and quality assessment was conducted following previous methodologies and the UK Medical Research Council guidance on natural experiments. The PROGRESS-Plus framework was used to describe the impact on subgroups of the population.

Studies were categorized by outcome, i.e. changes in cycling behavior, or usage of the cycling infrastructure. The relative change was calculated to derive a common outcome across various metrics and cycling purposes. The median relative change was presented to evaluate whether effects differed by methodological aspects.

Results

The review included 31 studies and all were conducted within urban areas in high-income countries. Most of the evaluations found changes in favor of the intervention, showing that the number of cyclists using the facilities increased (median relative change compared to baseline: 62%; range: 4 to 438%), and to a lesser extent that cycling behavior increased (median relative change compared to baseline: 22%; range: − 21 to 262%). Studies that tested for statistical significance and studies that used subjective measurement methods (such as surveys and direct observations of cyclists) found larger changes than those that did not perform statistical tests, and those that used objective measurement methods (such as GPS and accelerometers, and automatic counting stations). Seven studies provided information on changes of physical activity behaviors, and findings were mixed. Three studies tested for equity effects following the opening of cycling infrastructure.

Conclusions

Study findings of natural experiments evaluating infrastructural interventions to promote cycling depended on the methods used and the approach to analysis. Studies measuring cycling behavior were more likely to assess actual behavioral change that is most relevant for population health, as compared to studies that measured the use of cycling infrastructure. Triangulation of methods is warranted to overcome potential issues that one may encounter when evaluating environmental changes within the built environment.

Trial registration

The protocol of this study was registered at PROSPERO (CRD42018091079).

A systematic review of the effect of infrastructural interventions to promote cycling: strengthening causal inference from observational data

BACKGROUND

Previous reviews have suggested that infrastructural interventions can be effective in promoting cycling. Given inherent methodological complexities in the evaluation of such changes, it is important to understand whether study results obtained depend on the study design and methods used, and to describe the implications of the methods used for causality. The aims of this systematic review were to summarize the effects obtained in studies that used a wide range of study designs to assess the effects of infrastructural interventions on cycling and physical activity, and whether the effects varied by study design, data collection methods, or statistical approaches.

METHODS

Six databases were searched for studies that evaluated infrastructural interventions to promote cycling in adult populations, such as the opening of cycling lanes, or the expansion of a city-wide cycling network. Controlled and uncontrolled studies that presented data before and after the intervention were included. No language or date restrictions were applied. Data was extracted for any outcome presented (e.g. bikes counted on the new infrastructure, making a bike trip, cycling frequency, cycling duration), and for any purpose of cycling (e.g. total cycling, recreational cycling, cycling for commuting). Data for physical activity outcomes and equity effects was extracted, and quality assessment was conducted following previous methodologies and the UK Medical Research Council guidance on natural experiments. The PROGRESS-Plus framework was used to describe the impact on subgroups of the population. Studies were categorized by outcome, i.e. changes in cycling behavior, or usage of the cycling infrastructure. The relative change was calculated to derive a common outcome across various metrics and cycling purposes. The median relative change was presented to evaluate whether effects differed by methodological aspects.

RESULTS

The review included 31 studies and all were conducted within urban areas in high-income countries. Most of the evaluations found changes in favor of the intervention, showing that the number of cyclists using the facilities increased (median relative change compared to baseline: 62%; range: 4 to 438%), and to a lesser extent that cycling behavior increased (median relative change compared to baseline: 22%; range: - 21 to 262%). Studies that tested for statistical significance and studies that used subjective measurement methods (such as surveys and direct observations of cyclists) found larger changes than those that did not perform statistical tests, and those that used objective measurement methods (such as GPS and accelerometers, and automatic counting stations). Seven studies provided information on changes of physical activity behaviors, and findings were mixed. Three studies tested for equity effects following the opening of cycling infrastructure.

CONCLUSIONS

Study findings of natural experiments evaluating infrastructural interventions to promote cycling depended on the methods used and the approach to analysis. Studies measuring cycling behavior were more likely to assess actual behavioral change that is most relevant for population health, as compared to studies that measured the use of cycling infrastructure. Triangulation of methods is warranted to overcome potential issues that one may encounter when evaluating environmental changes within the built environment.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The protocol of this study was registered at PROSPERO (CRD42018091079).

A workplace-based intervention to increase levels of daily physical activity: the Travel to Work cluster RCT

Background

There may be opportunities for working adults to accumulate recommended physical activity levels (≥ 150 minutes of moderate-intensity physical activity in bouts of ≥ 10 minutes throughout the week) during the commute to work. Systematic reviews of interventions to increase active transport indicate that studies are predominantly of poor quality, rely on self-report and lack robust statistical analyses.

Objectives

To assess the effectiveness, cost and consequences of a behavioural intervention to increase walking during the commute to work.

Design

A multicentre, parallel-arm, cluster randomised controlled trial incorporating economic and process evaluations. Physical activity outcomes were measured using accelerometers and GPS (Global Positioning System) receivers at baseline and the 12-month follow-up.

Setting

Workplaces in seven urban areas in south-west England and south Wales.

Participants

Employees (n = 654) in 87 workplaces.

Interventions

Workplace-based Walk to Work promoters were trained to implement a 10-week intervention incorporating key behaviour change techniques.

Main outcome measures

The primary outcome was the daily number of minutes of moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA). Secondary outcomes included MVPA during the commute, overall levels of physical activity and modal shift (from private car to walking). Cost–consequences analysis included employer, employee and health service costs and consequences. Process outcomes included barriers to, and facilitators of, walking during the daily commute.

Results

There was no evidence of an intervention effect on MVPA at the 12-month follow-up [adjusted difference in means 0.3 minutes, 95% confidence interval (CI) –5.3 to 5.9 minutes]. The intervention cost was on average, £181.97 per workplace and £24.19 per participating employee. In comparison with car users [mean 7.3 minutes, standard deviation (SD) 7.6 minutes], walkers (mean 34.3 minutes, SD 18.6 minutes) and public transport users (mean 25.7 minutes, SD 14.0 minutes) accrued substantially higher levels of daily MVPA during the commute. Participants who walked for ≥ 10 minutes during their commute were more likely to have a shorter commute distance (p < 0.001). No access to a car (p < 0.001) and absence of free workplace car parking (p < 0.01) were independently related to walking to work and using public transport. Higher quality-of-life scores were observed for the intervention group in a repeated-measures analysis (mean 0.018, 95% CI 0.000 to 0.036; scores anchored at 0 indicated ‘no capability’ and scores anchored at 1 indicated ‘full capability’).

Conclusions

Although this research showed that walking to work and using public transport are important contributors to physical activity levels in a working population, the behavioural intervention was insufficient to change travel behaviour. Broader contextual factors, such as length of journey, commuting options and availability of car parking, may influence the effectiveness of behavioural interventions to change travel behaviour. Further analyses of statistical and qualitative data could focus on physical activity and travel mode and the wider determinants of workplace travel behaviour.

Trial registration

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN15009100.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Public Health Research programme and will be published in full in Public Health Research; Vol. 7, No. 11. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information. Living Streets, a UK charity promoting everyday walking, provided funding for the intervention booklets and free pedometers for distribution to participants in the intervention group.

Trialing a Road Lane to Bicycle Path Redesign—Changes in Travel Behavior with a Focus on Users’ Route and Mode Choice

Redistribution of space from private motorized vehicles to sustainable modes of transport is gaining popularity as an approach to alleviate transport problems in many cities around the world. This article investigates the impact of a trial Complete Streets project, in which road space is reallocated to bicyclists and pedestrians in Trondheim, Norway. The paper focuses on changes in the travel behavior of users of the street, with a focus on route and mode choice. In total, 719 people responded to a web-based travel survey, which also encompassed an integrated mapping Application Programming Interface (API). Amongst the findings of the survey is that the average length of the trial project that was utilized by cyclists on their most common journey through the neighborhood nearly doubled from 550 m to 929 m (p < 0.0005), suggesting that the intervention was highly attractive to bicyclists. Respondents were also asked whether they believe the trial project was positive for the local community, with the majority (87%) being positive or highly positive to the change. The intervention had a considerable impact on users’ travel behavior in terms of both frequency and choice of active transportation modes, together with leading to a change in route preferences.

Exploring the cross-sectional association between outdoor recreational facilities and leisure-time physical activity: the role of usage and residential self-selection

Background

The availability of outdoor recreational facilities is associated with increased leisure-time physical activity (PA). We investigated how much of this association is attributable to selection effects, and explored whether usage of recreational facilities was an explanatory mechanism.

Methods

We analysed data from 5199 participants in the SPOTLIGHT survey residing in five European urban regions. Adults completed a survey and a Google Street View-based virtual audit was conducted to objectively measure the availability of outdoor recreational facilities in the residential neighbourhood. We used negative binomial GEE models to examine the association between objective and subjective availability of outdoor recreational facilities and leisure-time PA, and explored whether this association was attenuated after adjustment for socioeconomic status and preference for neighbourhoods with recreational facilities (as indicators of self-selection). We examined whether reported use of recreational facilities was associated with leisure-time PA (as explanatory mechanism), and summarized the most important motivations for (not) using recreational facilities.

Results

Subjective – but not objective – availability of outdoor recreational facilities was associated with higher levels of total leisure-time PA. After adjustment for self-selection (which attenuated the association by 25%), we found a 25% difference in weekly minutes of total leisure-time PA between individuals with and without self-reported availability of outdoor recreational facilities. For our study population, this translates to about 28 min per week. Participants who reported outdoor recreational facilities to be present but indicated not to use them (RR = 1.19, 95% CI = 1.03;1.22), and those reporting outdoor recreational facilities to be present and to use them (RR = 1.33, 95% CI = 1.22, 1.45) had higher levels of total leisure-time PA than those who reported outdoor recreational facilities not to be present. Proximity to outdoor recreational facilities was the most important motivation for use.

Conclusion

The modest attenuation in the association between availability of outdoor recreational facilities and self-reported leisure-time PA suggests that individuals’ higher activity levels may be due more to the perceived availability of outdoor recreational facilities than to self-selection. The use of these facilities seemed to be an important underlying mechanism, and proximity was the main motivator for using recreational facilities.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12966-018-0689-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Associations of mode of travel to work with physical activity, and individual, interpersonal, organisational, and environmental characteristics

INTRODUCTION

Encouraging walking during the daily commute is a potential strategy for increasing physical activity levels. This study aimed: (i) to examine, and compare by travel mode, the objectively measured physical activity of a working adult population, and, (ii) to identify associations between mode of travel to work and a range of individual, interpersonal, organisational and environmental characteristics.

METHODS

Employees (n=654) recruited from 87 workplaces in geographically distinct areas provided data through accelerometers, Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers, travel diaries and questionnaires. Separate multivariable logistic regression models were developed to examine factors associated with physical activity during the commute and mode of travel to work.

RESULTS

In comparison to car users (7.3 minutes±Standard Deviation 7.6), walkers (34.3±18.6) and public transport users (25.7±14.0) accrued substantially higher levels of daily moderate to vigorous physical activity during the commute. Combined accelerometer and GPS data showed that participants who walked at least ten minutes during their commute were more likely to have a shorter commute distance (p<0.001), occupy a sedentary job (p<0.01), and be classified as 'underweight or normal weight' (p<0.03). No car access (p<0.001), and absence of free work car parking (p<0.01) were independently related to walking to work and using public transport. Shorter commuting distances were also related to walking to work (p<0.001). Public transport users were more likely to be younger (p=0.04), have more positive environmental perceptions (p=0.01), and less likely to combine their commute with caring responsibilities (p=0.03).

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows that walking to work and using public transport are important contributors to physical activity levels in a working population. Planning, transport and behavioural interventions to promote walking during the commute should take into account the wider determinants. Reducing availability of free work car parking is one possible strategy to discourage car use.

Obesity-related health impacts of active transport policies in Australia - a policy review and health impact modelling study

OBJECTIVE

To review Australian policies on active transport, defined as walking and cycling for utilitarian purposes. To estimate the potential health impact of achieving four active transport policy scenarios.

METHODS

A policy review was undertaken, using key words to search government websites. Potential health benefits were quantified using a cohort simulation Markov model to estimate obesity and transport injury-related health effects of an increase in active transport. Health adjusted life years (HALYs) gained and healthcare cost savings from diseases averted were estimated. Budget thresholds to achieve cost-effectiveness were estimated for each scenario.

RESULTS

There is broad recognition of the health-related benefits of active transport from all levels of Australian government. Modelling results suggest significant health-related benefits of achieving increased prevalence of active transport. Total HALYs saved assuming a one-year effect ranged from 565 (95%UI 173-985) to 12,105 (95%UI 4,970-19,707), with total healthcare costs averted ranging from $6.6M (95%UI $1.9M-11.3M) to $141.2M (95%UI $53.8M-227.8M).

CONCLUSION

Effective interventions that improve rates of active transport may result in substantial healthcare-related cost savings through a decrease in conditions related to obesity. Implications for public health: Significant potential exists for effective and cost-effective interventions that result in more walking and cycling.