The Long-Term effects of COVID-19 on travel behavior in the United States: A panel study on work from home, mode choice, online shopping, and air travel

The Mediating Role of Human Mobility in Temporal-Lagged Relationships Between Risk Perception and COVID-19 Dynamics in Taiwan: Statistical Modeling for Comparing the Pre-Omicron and Omicron Eras

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly impacted all aspects of human life for over 3 years. Understanding the evolution of public risk perception during these periods is crucial. Few studies explore the mechanisms for reducing disease transmission due to risk perception. Thus, we hypothesize that changes in human mobility play a mediating role between risk perception and the progression of the pandemic.

Objective

The study aims to explore how various forms of human mobility, including essential, nonessential, and job-related behaviors, mediate the temporal relationships between risk perception and pandemic dynamics.

Methods

We used distributed-lag linear structural equation models to compare the mediating impact of human mobility across different virus variant periods. These models examined the temporal dynamics and time-lagged effects among risk perception, changes in mobility, and virus transmission in Taiwan, focusing on two distinct periods: (1) April-August 2021 (pre-Omicron era) and (2) February-September 2022 (Omicron era).

Results

In the pre-Omicron era, our findings showed that an increase in public risk perception correlated with significant reductions in COVID-19 cases across various types of mobility within specific time frames. Specifically, we observed a decrease of 5.59 (95% CI -4.35 to -6.83) COVID-19 cases per million individuals after 7 weeks in nonessential mobility, while essential mobility demonstrated a reduction of 10.73 (95% CI -9.6030 to -11.8615) cases after 8 weeks. Additionally, job-related mobility resulted in a decrease of 3.96 (95% CI -3.5039 to -4.4254) cases after 11 weeks. However, during the Omicron era, these effects notably diminished. A reduction of 0.85 (95% CI -1.0046 to -0.6953) cases through nonessential mobility after 10 weeks and a decrease of 0.69 (95% CI -0.7827 to -0.6054) cases through essential mobility after 12 weeks were observed.

Conclusions

This study confirms that changes in mobility serve as a mediating factor between heightened risk perception and pandemic mitigation in both pre-Omicron and Omicron periods. This suggests that elevating risk perception is notably effective in impeding virus progression, especially when vaccines are unavailable or their coverage remains limited. Our findings provide significant value for health authorities in devising policies to address the global threats posed by emerging infectious diseases.

The effect of quarantine policy on pollution emission and the usage of private transportation in urban areas

Governmental policies, regulations, and responses to the pandemic can benefit from a better understanding of people's resulting behaviours before, during, and after COVID-19. To avoid the inelasticity and subjectivity of survey datasets, several studies have already used some objective variables like air pollutants to estimate the potential impacts of COVID-19 on the urban transportation system. However, the usage of reactant gases and a narrow time scale might weaken the results somehow. Here, both the objective passenger volume of public transport and the concentration of private traffic emitted black carbon (BC) from 2018 to 2023 were collected/calculated to decipher the potential relationship between public and private traffic during the COVID-19 period. Our results indicated that the commuting patterns of citizens show significant (p < 0.01) different patterns before, during, and after the pandemic. To be specific, public transportation showed a significant (p < 0.01) positive correlation with private transportation before the pandemic. This public transportation was significantly (p < 0.01) affected by the outbreaks of COVID-19, showing a significant (p < 0.01) negative correlation with private transportation. Such impacts of the virus and governmental policy would affect the long-term behaviour of individuals and even affect public transportation usage after the pandemic. Our results also indicated that such behaviour was mainly linked to the governmental restriction policy and would soon be neglected after the cancellation of the restriction policy in China.

Radiologists' Out-of-Network Billing Trends, 2007 to 2021

PURPOSE

Given the financial hardships of surprise billing for patients, the aim of this study was to assess the degree to which radiologists effectively participate in commercial insurance networks by examining the trend in the share of radiologists' imaging claims that are out of network (OON).

METHODS

A retrospective study over a 15-year period (2007-2021) was conducted using claims from Optum's deidentified Clinformatics Data Mart Database to assess the share of radiologists' imaging claims that are OON. Radiologists' annual OON rate was assessed overall as well as for claims associated with inpatient stays and emergency department (ED) visits. Rates were assessed for all imaging studies as well as by modality. Linear regression was conducted to assess OON rate time trends.

RESULTS

From 2007 to 2021, 5,039,142 of radiologists' imaging claims (6.3%) were OON. This rate declined from 12.6% in 2007 to 1.1% in 2021. Over the study period, the OON rate was 5.0% during an inpatient stay and 2.1% on the same day as an ED visit that did not lead to an inpatient admission. The linear trend in the overall OON rate declined 0.74 percentage points annually (95% confidence interval [CI], -0.90 to -0.58 percentage points) over the study period. Likewise, the annual declines were 0.54 percentage points (95% CI, -0.71 to -0.36) and 0.26 percentage points (95% CI, -0.33 to -0.20 percentage points) for imaging claims associated with inpatient stays and ED visits, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Radiologists' imaging claims that are OON has significantly declined from 2007 to a minimal level in 2021. This may indicate effective negotiations between radiologists and commercial payers and new state-level surprise billing laws.

Recent Latinx immigrants to Miami/Dade County (FL): Travel patterns before, during, and one year after the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown

INTRODUCTION

Understanding the transportation needs of immigrants is crucial for the design and promotion of safe, equitable, and sustainable living environments. This study examines the transportation patterns from a sample of Recent Latinx Immigrants (RLIs) upon arrival to Miami/Dade Co (MDC), Florida.

METHODS

Collected between 2018 and 2021, data came from a longitudinal study examining drinking and driving trajectories among 540 RLIs to MDC. Retrospective pre-immigration data (T0) were obtained simultaneously with the first-year post-immigration data (T1). Follow up surveys were conducted one year later, before (T2-BC) or during a pandemic lockout (T2-DC), and two years later (T3). Descriptive and repeated measures mixed-model regression were used to examine the data.

RESULTS

Driving declined from T0 to T1, although remained higher than previously reported for other locations. Not having a valid driver's license was the main reason for the decline. The initial reduction in driving was paralleled by an increase in the use of transit, riding as passengers in private vehicles, and walking. A year later (T2), as RLIs' income and access to a driver's license grew, driving rates increased (even during the pandemic lockdown), while the use of other transportation modes decreased. A year after the pandemic lockdown (T3), driving as well as the use of other transportation modes receded. Reasons for this decline are unclear.

CONCLUSIONS

RLIs reported elevated driving rates upon their arrival to MDC. The COVID-19 pandemic seems to have altered the RLIs' transportation patterns, provoking an overall decline in mobility that lasted even after the pandemic lockdown ceased.

PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS

Transportation planners working on developing safe and equitable transportation systems in MDC should: (1) identify and address barriers to the use of transportation modes other than driving by RLIs; and (2) understand reasons for the broad decline in transportation modes after the pandemic lockdown.

Changes in Teleworking and Physical Activity Behaviors in the United States Before and After Emergence of COVID-19

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the study is to determine the prevalence of perceived decreases in three physical activity (PA) behaviors and meeting the PA guideline, by changes in telework.

METHODS

US workers ( N = 2393) reported teleworking and PA behaviors before and after COVID-19 emergence. Those reporting more and less telework were compared with those reporting stable telework on prevalence of (1) decreasing behaviors and (2) meeting the aerobic guideline (≥150 min/wk of moderate-intensity PA).

RESULTS

Compared with workers with stable telework, those with increased telework were more likely to report decreases in any PA (by 61%), active transportation (65%), and park use (52%). Workers who deceased telework were also more likely to report decreases in these behaviors. Groups were equally likely to meet the guideline.

CONCLUSIONS

Changes in teleworking status-either more or less-may be associated with decreased participation in PA behaviors.

Changes of Grocery Shopping Frequencies and Associations with Food Deserts during the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States

The COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically altered people's lives in multiple aspects, including grocery shopping behaviors. Yet, the changing trend of grocery shopping frequencies during the COVID-19 and its associations with food deserts remain unclear. We aimed to (1) examine variations of grocery shopping frequencies at county level in the USA during the COVID-19 pandemic from March 2020 to December 2021; (2) investigate associations between grocery shopping frequencies and food deserts during the COVID-19 pandemic; and (3) explore heterogeneity in grocery shopping frequencies-food desert associations across urban and rural areas. The county-level grocery shopping frequencies were derived from a grocery pattern dataset obtained from SafeGraph. We divided the 22-month period into 5 stages and employed the growth curve modeling to estimate the trajectories of grocery shopping frequencies and the associations between grocery shopping frequencies and food deserts in each stage, separately. Results revealed that grocery shopping frequencies experienced a "W-shaped" pattern from March 2020 to December 2021. Counties with the least percent of food deserts had slower decrease in grocery shopping frequencies at the initial stage and recovered more rapidly at later stages. Counties with the highest percent of food deserts were subject to deprivation amplification as a result of the pandemic. We also found differences existed in the grocery shopping frequencies-food desert associations between metropolitan counties and rural counties. Our findings suggest the impacts of COVID-19 on grocery shopping frequencies varied across different time periods, shedding light on designing different strategies to reduce the risk of contagion while shopping inside of grocery stores. Further, our findings highlight an urgent need to help people living in food deserts (especially in rural counties) to procure healthy foods safely during health emergencies like COVID-19 pandemic which disrupt mobility and social behaviors.

Rush hour-and-a-half: Traffic is spreading out post-lockdown

Traffic congestion is ubiquitous in major cities around the world. Congestion is associated with a slew of negative effects, including delays and local air pollution. Because of the negative effects of congestion, governments invest billions of dollars into the highway system to try to reduce congestion and accommodate peak-hour automobile travel demand. The COVID-19 pandemic presented a significant disruption to transportation systems globally. One impact was a drastic reduction in travel, leading to free-flowing traffic conditions in many previously-congested cities. As lockdowns eased, traffic volumes returned to near-normal levels. However, the temporal pattern of demand may differ, due to increased remote work or other factors. In this article, we examine the temporal distribution of highway demand in California, using data from over 3,500 traffic sensors. We find that peak-hour automobile travel is spreading in the post-lockdown period. In addition to decreased traffic congestion, this finding also has implications for infrastructure investment. Roadways are generally sized based on peak-hour demand. As the peaks spread, some highway construction project may prove unnecessary. It may be possible to reallocate road space to other uses with fewer tradeoffs in terms of traffic congestion.

Investigating changes in travel behavior over time in response to the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly affected travel behavior, including the frequency and mode of travel, with the magnitude and nature of these effects varying over time. This study investigates the nature of these relationships by examining changes in various measures of travel behavior, including weekly driving hours, as well as the frequency of telecommuting, use of ride-sharing services, travel for medical purposes, and use of food delivery services. Self-reported travel data from a representative statewide survey of Michigan residents were used to assess changes in these metrics during the early stages of the pandemic, as well as one year thereafter. Random effects linear regression and ordered logit regression models were estimated and the findings show that various changes in behavior had long-lasting effects, while other behaviors generally reverted back toward pre-pandemic levels. In addition, these changes were found to vary across individuals. For example, significant differences were observed based on socio-demographic characteristics, between urban and rural areas, and amongst individuals with differing views on COVID-19 and related government interventions. In general, the pandemic tended to have less pronounced and sustained effects among younger adults as compared to older age groups. Further, those individuals who were opposed to mandatory COVID-19 vaccines were less likely to change their travel behavior, during both the early and latter stages of the pandemic. Changes were observed consistently across most of the travel metrics of interest. Among these, overall driving hours, travel for medical purposes, and ride-sharing were still lower during the latter stages of the pandemic, while telecommuting and the use of food delivery services reverted nearer to pre-pandemic levels.

Identifying the Determinants of Anticipated Post-Pandemic Mode Choices in the Greater Toronto Area: A Stated Preference Study

The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on travel mode choices in cities across the world. Driven by perceptions of risk and the fear of infection, the pandemic resulted in an increased preference for private vehicles and active modes and a reduced preference for public transit and ride-sourcing. As travel behavior and modal preferences evolve, a key question is whether the pandemic will result in long-term changes to travel mode choices. This study uses data from a web-based survey to examine the factors influencing mode choices for non-commuting trips in the post-pandemic era. Specifically, it uses stated preference data to develop a random parameter mixed logit model, which is used to compare the elasticity of key variables across different income and age groups. The results of the study highlight the influence of sociodemographic attributes and pre-pandemic travel habits on anticipated post-pandemic mode choices. Additionally, the results suggest that frequent users of private vehicles, public transit, and active modes are likely to continue to use these modes post-pandemic. Furthermore, the results highlight the potential for the perception of shared modes to influence post-pandemic mode choice decisions. The results of the study offer insights into policy measures that could be applied to address the increased use of private vehicles and reduced use of transit during the pandemic, while also emphasizing the need to ensure that certain segments of the population can maintain a sufficient level of mobility and access to transport.

Systematic literature review on impacts of COVID-19 pandemic and corresponding measures on mobility

The unprecedented COVID-19 outbreak has significantly influenced our daily life, and COVID-19's spread is inevitably associated with human mobility. Given the pandemic's severity and extent of spread, a timely and comprehensive synthesis of the current state of research is needed to understand the pandemic's impact on human mobility and corresponding government measures. This study examined the relevant literature published to the present (March 2023), identified research trends, and conducted a systematic review of evidence regarding transport's response to COVID-19. We identified key research agendas and synthesized the results, examining: (1) mobility changes by transport modes analyzed regardless of government policy implementation, using empirical data and survey data; (2) the effect of diverse government interventions to reduce mobility and limit COVID-19 spread, and controversial issues on travel restriction policy effects; and (3) future research issues. The findings showed a strong relationship between the pandemic and mobility, with significant impacts on decreased overall mobility, a remarkable drop in transit ridership, changes in travel behavior, and improved traffic safety. Government implemented various non-pharmaceutical countermeasures, such as city lockdowns, travel restrictions, and social distancing. Many studies showed such interventions were effective. However, some researchers reported inconsistent outcomes. This review provides urban and transport planners with valuable insights to facilitate better preparation for future health emergencies that affect transportation.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11116-023-10392-2.

Studying the Interrelationship between Telecommuting during COVID-19, residential local accessibility, and active travel: a panel study in Montréal, Canada

The COVID-19 pandemic led to a substantial increase in the number of people working from home (telecommuting), in turn leading to unprecedented changes in mobility patterns worldwide. Due to the changing context of the pandemic, there is still a significant gap in knowledge regarding the effects of working from home on workers' travel patterns. The main goal of this work is to unravel the interrelationship between telecommuting during the COVID-19 pandemic, the frequency of active travel for non-work utilitarian purposes, and local accessibility levels around workers' homes. This study uses a longitudinal approach by analyzing travel and telecommuting behavior data from a two-wave survey administered in Montreal in 2019, pre-pandemic, and 2021, during COVID-19 (n = 452). Through a set of weighted multi-level linear regressions, we study the effects of telecommuting on the frequency of active travel for non-work utilitarian purposes, mediated by local accessibility around the household. Results show that the effect of telecommuting on non-work active travel for utilitarian purposes is highly dependent on local accessibility levels around the person's household. For workers living in high local accessibility areas, an increase in telecommuting during the pandemic has induced an increase in active trips for non-work utilitarian purposes. On the other hand, for workers residing in low local accessibility neighborhoods, the effect is the opposite. This research provides insights into the effects of telecommuting on non-work active travel, an area that is currently of interest to policy-makers and practitioners working towards increasing the level of physical activity among individuals through travel.

Exploring attitude-behaviour dynamics during COVID-19: How fear of infection and working from home influence train use and the attitude toward this mode

Research on the relationships between travel-related attitudes and travel behaviour has recently been reinvigorated by new theorizing as well as new empirical models. While traditional theories assume a rather static role of attitudes, i.e. acting as stable predispositions that cause behaviours in a unidirectional manner, recent models assume that attitudes and behaviours mutually influence each other over time. This study aims at better understanding attitude-behaviour dynamics by capitalizing on the circumstances presented by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. It assesses how the fear of COVID-19 infection and (the attitude towards) working-from-home influence train use as well as train use attitudes. To explore the (within-person) reciprocal relationships between these variables, random-intercept cross-lagged panel models were estimated using a 4-wave longitudinal dataset collected during the COVID-19 pandemic from a large panel of train travellers in the Netherlands. The results indicate that train use and the attitude towards train use reciprocally influence each other. Those with stronger fears of infection in one wave tend to use the train less in a subsequent wave, but higher use of the train in one wave also reduces the fear of infection in the next. We also found that working from home (WFH) and travelling by train operate as substitutes for one another. Moreover, people who work from home frequently become more fearful of infection. All the findings are consistent with cognitive dissonance theory that people develop attitudes that align with their behaviours. The paper concludes with several policy implications related to changing attitudes and promoting train use.