Effects of geographic and economic heterogeneity on the burden of rotavirus diarrhea and the impact and cost-effectiveness of vaccination in Pakistan

Rotavirus genotype dynamics in Pakistan: G9 and G12 emerging as dominant strains in vaccinated children (2019)

Rotavirus A (RVA) is a leading cause of severe gastroenteritis in children worldwide, and vaccination has become a pivotal strategy to reduce the associated morbidity and mortality. This study presents a molecular characterization of RVA genotypes circulating among vaccinated children in Pakistan during the year 2019. A total of 510 stool samples were collected from children of up to five years of age presenting with acute gastroenteritis symptoms in Rawalpindi, Islamabad regions of Pakistan. The RVA antigen was detected using ELISA on these samples. RVA G/P genotyping was performed on ELISA positive samples using Multiplex semi-nested reverse transcriptase PCR. RVA was found in 130 fecal samples, with an overall prevalence of 25.4 %. G9P[8] (20 %) is the most prevalent genotype, followed by G12P[6] (17 %), G3P[8] (14 %), G1P[8] (12 %), G2P[4] (10 %), G12P[8] (7 %), G9P[6] (7 %), G3P[6] (6 %), G3P[4] (4 %) and G1P[6] (3 %) respectively. There is a statistically significant difference (p < 0.05) found in the group age (in months) of RVA gastroenteritis cases as detected by RT-PCR. The highest number of positive cases was found in the age range from 0 to 6 months, followed by 7-12 months, 13-24 months, and 25-60 months, respectively. Dehydration is statistically significantly associated (p˂ 0.05) in RVA gastroenteritis cases compared to those who tested negative. This study emphasizes the significance of maintaining a continuous surveillance system and conducting genomic analysis of RVA genotypes in children upto the age of 5 years. This is essential for tracking the circulation of RVA genotypes. The results from this research enhance our comprehension of how RVA genotypes are changing over time in Pakistan, underscoring the ongoing necessity for improving vaccine coverage and effectiveness. This, in turn, can help reduce the impact of RVA-related illnesses in children.

Equity in Economic Evaluations of Early Childhood Development Interventions in Low-and Middle-Income Countries: Scoping Review

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to examine how equity is integrated into economic evaluations of early childhood development interventions in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs), and to narratively synthesize the study characteristics and findings.

METHODS

We conducted a scoping review by searching three electronic databases with terms including equity, early childhood development intervention, economic evaluation, and LMICs. Interventions that aimed to improve child cognitive, physical, language, motor, or social and emotional development through health, nutrition, security and safety, responsive caregiving, and early learning interventions between conception and age 8 years were considered. Studies published in English peer-reviewed journals in the year 2000 and later were included.

RESULTS

The review included 24 cost-effectiveness studies out of 1460 identified articles based on eligibility criteria. The included studies addressed health, nutrition, social protection, and water, sanitation and hygiene interventions for child development. The common type of intervention was immunization. Mostly, equity was measured using household wealth or geographic areas, and the study findings were presented through subgroup analyses. The study settings were LMICs, but most studies were conducted by research teams from high-income countries. Overall, 63% of included studies reported that early childhood development interventions improved equity with greater intervention benefits observed in disadvantaged groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Consideration of equity in evaluations of early childhood interventions provides a more complete picture of cost-effectiveness, and can improve equity. Greater focus on promoting equity consideration, multi-sectoral interventions, and researchers in LMICs would support evidence-based interventions and policies to achieve equity in child development.

Immunization Gender Inequity in Pakistan: An Analysis of 6.2 Million Children Born from 2019 to 2022 and Enrolled in the Sindh Electronic Immunization Registry

Gender-based inequities in immunization impede the universal coverage of childhood vaccines. Leveraging data from the Government of Sindh’s Electronic Immunization Registry (SEIR), we estimated inequalities in immunization for males and females from the 2019–2022 birth cohorts in Pakistan. We computed male-to-female (M:F) and gender inequality ratios (GIR) Tfor enrollment, vaccine coverage, and timeliness. We also explored the inequities by maternal literacy, geographic location, mode of vaccination delivery, and gender of vaccinators. Between 1 January 2019, and 31 December 2022, 6,235,305 children were enrolled in the SEIR, 52.2% males and 47.8% females. We observed a median M:F ratio of 1.03 at enrollment and at Penta-1, Penta-3, and Measles-1 vaccinations, indicating more males were enrolled in the immunization system than females. Once enrolled, a median GIR of 1.00 indicated similar coverage for females and males over time; however, females experienced a delay in their vaccination timeliness. Low maternal education; residing in remote-rural, rural, and slum regions; and receiving vaccines at fixed sites, as compared to outreach, were associated with fewer females being vaccinated, as compared to males. Our findings suggeste the need to tailor and implement gender-sensitive policies and strategies for improving equity in immunization, especially in vulnerable geographies with persistently high inequalities.

Equity-Informative Economic Evaluations of Vaccines: A Systematic Literature Review

The Immunization Agenda 2030 prioritizes the populations without access to vaccines. Health equity has been increasingly incorporated into economic evaluations of vaccines to foster equitable access. Robust and standardized methods are needed to evaluate the health equity impact of vaccination programs to ensure monitoring and effective addressing of inequities. However, methods currently in place vary and potentially affect the application of findings to inform policy decision-making. We performed a systematic review by searching PubMed, Embase, Econlit, and the CEA Registry up to 15 December 2022 to identify equity-informative economic evaluations of vaccines. Twenty-one studies were included that performed health equity impact analysis to estimate the distributional impact of vaccines, such as deaths averted and financial risk protection, across equity-relevant subgroups. These studies showed that the introduction of vaccines or improved vaccination coverage resulted in fewer deaths and higher financial risk benefits in subpopulations with higher disease burdens and lower vaccination coverage-particularly poorer income groups and those living in rural areas. In conclusion, methods to incorporate equity have been evolving progressively. Vaccination programs can enhance equity if their design and implementation address existing inequities in order to provide equitable vaccination coverage and achieve health equity.

Cost-effectiveness of sub-national geographically targeted vaccination programs: A systematic review

Immunization is an essential component of national health plans. However, the growing number of new vaccine introductions, vaccination campaigns and increasing administrative costs create logistic and financial challenges, especially in resource-limited settings. Sub-national geographic targeting of vaccination programs is a potential strategy for governments to reduce the impact of infectious disease outbreaks while optimizing resource allocation and reducing costs, promoting sustainability of critically important national immunization plans. We conducted a systematic review of peer-reviewed literature to identify studies that investigated the cost-effectiveness of geographically targeted sub-national vaccination programs, either through routine immunization or supplementary immunization activities. A total of 16 studies were included in our review, covering nine diseases of interest: cholera, dengue, enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC), hepatitis A, Japanese encephalitis, measles, rotavirus, Shigella and typhoid fever. All studies modelled cost-effectiveness of geographically targeted vaccination. Despite the variation in study design, disease focus and country context, studies generally found that in countries where a heterogenous burden of disease exists, sub-national geographic targeting of vaccination programs in areas of high disease burden was more cost-effective than a non-targeted strategy. Sensitivity analysis revealed that cost-effectiveness was most sensitive to variations in vaccine price, vaccine efficacy, mortality rate, administrative and operational costs, discount rate, and treatment costs. This systematic review identified several key characteristics related to geographic targeting of vaccination, including the vaccination strategy used, variations in modelling parameters and their impact on cost-effectiveness. Additional research and guidance is needed to support the appropriateness and feasibility of geographically targeted vaccination and to determine what country context would make this a viable complement to routine immunization programs.

Medical cost of acute diarrhea in children in ambulatory care

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to estimate the direct medical cost per episode and the annual cost for acute diarrhea (AD) in children under five years of age in Ambulatory Care Centers of the Ministry of Public Health (MOPH) of Ecuador.

METHODS

A cost of illness study with a provider perspective was carried out through a micro-costing of health resources and valuated in international dollars. Medical consultations and laboratory tests were valued using the tariff framework of services for the National Health System and for the prescribed medications, a reported cost registry of pharmacy purchases made in the year of study was used.

RESULTS

A total of 332 electronic health records of children under five years of age were included in the analysis. Laboratory tests were performed on 37.95% (126/332), medications were prescribed to 93.67% (311/332) of the children, and antimicrobials were prescribed to 37.35% (124/332) of the children, representing an antibiotic prescription rate of 26.51% (88/332) and an antiparasitic prescription rate of 10.84% (36/332). The mean cost of the MOPH per child per episode of AD was US$45.24 (2019 dollars) (95% CI:43.71 to 46.76).

CONCLUSION

The total estimated cost of AD in children under five years of age for the MOPH in 2019 was about US$6,645,167.88 million (2019 dollars) (95% CI: 6,420,430.77 to 6,868,436.12). A high proportion of the direct medical cost of AD in children under five years of age in outpatient settings is due to unnecessary laboratory tests.

Global burden and trends of rotavirus infection-associated deaths from 1990 to 2019: an observational trend study

Background

Rotavirus is the leading global pathogen of diarrhea-associated mortality and poses a great threat to public health in all age groups. This study aimed to explore the global burden and 30-year change patterns of rotavirus infection-associated deaths.

Methods

Based on the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study (GBD 2019), we analyzed the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of rotavirus infection by sex, geographical region, and sociodemographic index (SDI) from 1990 to 2019. A Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the global trends in rotavirus infection over the 30 years, SaTScan software was used to detect the spatial and temporal aggregations, and a generalized linear model to explore the relationship between sociodemographic factors and death rates of rotavirus infection.

Results

Globally, rotavirus infection was the leading cause of diarrheal deaths, accounting for 19.11% of deaths from diarrhea in 2019. Rotavirus caused a higher death burden in African, Oceanian, and South Asian countries in the past three decades. The ASDR of rotavirus declined from 11.39 (95% uncertainty interval [95% UI] 5.46–19.48) per 100,000 people in 1990 to 3.41 (95% UI 1.60–6.01) per 100,000 people in 2019, with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) (− 4.07%, P < 0.05). However, a significant uptrend was found in high-income North America (AAPC = 1.79%, P < 0.05). The death rate was the highest among children under 5 years worldwide. However, the death rates of elderly individuals over 70 years were higher than those of children under 5 years in 2019 among high, high-middle, middle, and low-middle SDI regions. Current health expenditure, gross domestic product per capita, and the number of physicians per 1000 people were significantly negatively correlated with death rates of rotavirus.

Conclusions

Although the global trends in the rotavirus burden have decreased substantially over the past three decades, the burden of rotavirus remained high in Africa, Oceania, and South Asia. Children under 5 years and elderly individuals over 70 years were the populations most at risk for rotavirus infection-associated deaths, especially elderly individuals over 70 years in relatively high SDI regions. More attention should be paid to these areas and populations, and effective public health policies should be implemented in the future.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12985-022-01898-9.

Non-prescribed antibiotic use for children at community levels in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Non-prescribed antibiotic use is an emerging risky practice around the globe. An inappropriate use involving nonprescription access is one cause of the rapid increase in antibiotic resistance. Children commonly encounter many self-limiting illnesses for which they frequently use antibiotics without prescription. However, no specific and conclusive evidence exists to inform actions against this unsafe practice. We thus aimed to estimate the pooled proportion of non-prescribed antibiotic use for children at community levels in low- and middle-income countries.

METHODS

A systematic search of records was conducted from PubMed/Medline, Embase, Scopus, CINAHL, and Google scholar. Eligible English-language publications were original articles which reported on community-based non-prescribed antibiotic use for children and conducted in low- and middle-income countries. Study features and the number of antibiotics used without prescriptions were extracted and pooled for effect sizes employing a random-effects model. The pooled proportion of non-prescribed antibiotic use was estimated as a percentage.

RESULTS

In this analysis, we included a total of 39 articles consisting of 40,450 participants. Of these, 16,315 participants used non-prescribed antibiotics. The pooled percentage for this use of non-prescribed antibiotics was 45% (95% CI: 40-50%). The estimate was considerably higher in studies involving simulated patient methods (56%; 95% CI: 49-62%) than those studies with community surveys (40%; 95% CI: 34-46%) (P = 0.001). It was also varied by the recall period of antibiotics use-56% (95% CI: 50-62%) for instantly observed practice, 36% (95% CI: 22-50%) for within two week recall, 35% (95% CI: 26-45%) for 1-6 months recall, and 46% (95% CI: 37-54%) for more than six months recall (P = 0.001). Primary access points for the non-prescribed antibiotic uses were retail drug outlets.

CONCLUSIONS

We found that nearly half of the antibiotics used for children in community settings were without prescriptions. For these unsafe practices, caregivers accessed antibiotics mainly from drug outlets. Hence, context-specific educational and regulatory interventions at these outlets and the community levels are the first steps to improving antibiotic usage for children in low- and middle-income countries.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42021288971 (PROSPERO).  https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42021288971 .

Knowledge and attitude regarding rotavirus and its vaccination among medical students in Karachi, Pakistan

Objective

The aim of this study is to determine the knowledge and attitude regarding rotavirus and its vaccination among medical students.

Study design

It is a cross sectional study.

Methods

Total 324 medical students were selected through stratified random sampling. A structured and validated questionnaire was used. Knowledge and attitude were recorded on scale. Independent t-test and ANVOA was used to determine the difference among gender and academic year. Regression and correlation analysis was done to determine the correlation of knowledge and attitude level with age and academic year of study. p value≤0.05 considered as statistically significant.

Results

Mean and standard deviation score of students were 7.88 ± 2.46 on knowledge scale and 4.16 ± 1.23 on attitude scale. Total 87% of students were aware of rotavirus and its vaccination. Both knowledge and attitude level were increased significantly with increasing year of study and age. After adjustment of covariate, Age and academic year of study were the significant factors in determining the scores on knowledge scale. (beta coefficient 0.056 with p-value 0.003 and 0.433 with p-value-0.000).

Conclusion

Medical students were appropriate knowledge about the rotavirus but attitude toward rotavirus vaccination is unsatisfactory. It should be a part of the curriculum of not just medical students but all students from high school to undergrad level regardless of the course they are enrolled in and also be advertised by the government.

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Medical students were appropriate knowledge about the rotavirus but attitude toward rotavirus vaccination is unsatisfactory.

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Age and academic year of study were the significant factors in determining the scores on knowledge scale.

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Rotavirus virus vacciantion and its importance should be a part of curriculum of all secondary students.

Advancing sustainable development goals through immunization: a literature review

BACKGROUND

Immunization directly impacts health (SDG3) and brings a contribution to 14 out of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), such as ending poverty, reducing hunger, and reducing inequalities. Therefore, immunization is recognized to play a central role in reaching the SDGs, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Despite continuous interventions to strengthen immunization systems and to adequately respond to emergency immunization during epidemics, the immunization-related indicators for SDG3 lag behind in sub-Saharan Africa. Especially taking into account the current Covid19 pandemic, the current performance on the connected SDGs is both a cause and a result of this.

METHODS

We conduct a literature review through a keyword search strategy complemented with handpicking and snowballing from earlier reviews. After title and abstract screening, we conducted a qualitative analysis of key insights and categorized them according to showing the impact of immunization on SDGs, sustainability challenges, and model-based solutions to these challenges.

RESULTS

We reveal the leveraging mechanisms triggered by immunization and position them vis-à-vis the SDGs, within the framework of Public Health and Planetary Health. Several challenges for sustainable control of vaccine-preventable diseases are identified: access to immunization services, global vaccine availability to LMICs, context-dependent vaccine effectiveness, safe and affordable vaccines, local/regional vaccine production, public-private partnerships, and immunization capacity/capability building. Model-based approaches that support SDG-promoting interventions concerning immunization systems are analyzed in light of the strategic priorities of the Immunization Agenda 2030.

CONCLUSIONS

In general terms, it can be concluded that relevant future research requires (i) design for system resilience, (ii) transdisciplinary modeling, (iii) connecting interventions in immunization with SDG outcomes, (iv) designing interventions and their implementation simultaneously, (v) offering tailored solutions, and (vi) model coordination and integration of services and partnerships. The research and health community is called upon to join forces to activate existing knowledge, generate new insights and develop decision-supporting tools for Low-and Middle-Income Countries' health authorities and communities to leverage immunization in its transformational role toward successfully meeting the SDGs in 2030.

A systematic review of economic evaluations of vaccines in Middle East and North Africa countries: is existing evidence good enough to support policy decision-making?

INTRODUCTION

A vaccine introduction process should be systematic and transparent and take into account many factors, including cost-effectiveness evidence. This study aimed to assess quantity, characteristic, and quality of economic evaluation (EE) studies on vaccines performed in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries.

AREAS COVERED

PubMed and Scopus electronic databases were searched since inception to December 2019 to identify published EE studies of vaccines, which were conducted in the 26 MENA countries. Methodological quality of the included studies was evaluated using the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) checklist.

EXPERT OPINION

Of the 616 studies identified, 46 were included in the review. Most studies (65%) were conducted in Iran, Israel, and Turkey. The most commonly evaluated vaccines were rotavirus vaccine (n = 15; 33%), human Papillomavirus vaccine (n = 8; 17%), and pneumococcal vaccine (n = 7; 15%). We classified 5 (11%), 27 (59%), 12 (26%), and 2 (4%) studies as excellent, good, moderate, and poor quality, respectively. There were limited cost-effectiveness evidences in the region. It is imperative to have local guidelines on good practice and reporting, availability of local data, and funding sources to improve quantity and quality of EE studies of vaccines in the region, thereby, facilitating transparent and consistent decision-making processes.

Incorporating health inequality impact into economic evaluation in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review

INTRODUCTION

As well as improving population health, promoting equity in health is one of the key goals of health policy in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, it is less clear how equity is defined, or how it may impact on resource allocation decisions. We investigated the degree to which health inequalities have been considered in economic evaluation of health interventions in LMICs, and what demographic or socioeconomic characteristics were used to define equity relevant subgroups.

AREAS COVERED

We reviewed publications since 2010 from three main databases following the search strategy developed by including the key terms 'health inequalities/health disparities/health equity,' 'economics' and 'low- and middle-income countries' in the title or abstract. Twelve studies were identified, mainly focusing on interventions for the more vulnerable groups such as children and women.

EXPERT OPINION

Some attempts have been made to assess interventions' impact on health inequality and there is increasing interest in evaluating it, although research in this area is lacking. Population subgroups highlighted in the included studies were those differing in socioeconomic status. Most studies reported the results across subgroups to illustrate inequality impact, and the newly developed methods, extended cost-effectiveness analysis and distributional cost-effectiveness analysis, have also been applied.

Rotavirus gastroenteritis in Pakistan, 2018: updated disease burden

Objective

Rotavirus A (RVA) is a significant cause of severe diarrheal illness and one of the common causes of death in children under the age of five. This study was aimed at detecting the prevalence of RVA in Pakistan after rotavirus vaccines were introduced. Fecal samples were obtained from 813 children from different hospitals in Rawalpindi and Islamabad, Pakistan, from January 2018 to December 2018. To obtain additional information from the parents / guardians of the children, a standard questionnaire was used.

Results

Using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay kit (ELISA), rotavirus antigen was detected and ELISA positive samples were subjected to reverse transcription PCR (RT-PCR). The findings showed 22% prevalence of RVA in children with acute gastroenteritis (AGE) via ELISA and 21% prevalence via RT-PCR in children with AGE. There was no statistically significant difference between gender, age and RVA infections. The winter, spring and fall/autumn seasons were statistically significant for RVA prevalence.

Conclusion

The present study will provide post vaccine prevalence data for the health policy makers. The implementation of rotavirus vaccines, along with adequate nutrition for babies, clean water supply and maternal hygienic activities during infant feeding, is recommended. Furthermore, continuous surveillance is mandatory in the whole country to calculate the disease burden caused by RVA.

Effects of geographic and economic heterogeneity on the burden of rotavirus diarrhea and the impact and cost-effectiveness of vaccination in Nigeria

Child mortality from rotavirus gastroenteritis remains high in Nigeria, representing 14% of all rotavirus deaths worldwide. Here, we examine the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of national rotavirus vaccine introduction in geographic and economic subpopulations of Nigeria. We projected the health and economic outcomes of rotavirus vaccination in children over the first five years of life using a spreadsheet-based model. We modeled child populations using national survey data on rotavirus mortality risk factors and vaccination coverage to predict burden and impact across regional and wealth quintile subpopulations within Nigeria. Our base case considered introduction of a general rotavirus vaccine, modeled to encompass characteristics of existing vaccines, versus no vaccine. Base case costs were estimated from the government perspective, assuming Gavi subsidies, over the first five years. We also present estimates from the cost of vaccination from the perspective of Gavi. We explored uncertainty in model parameters through probabilistic uncertainty, one-way sensitivity, and scenario analyses. According to our estimates, rotavirus enteritis was responsible for 47,898 [95% Uncertainty Limits: 35,361; 63,703] child deaths per year, with approximately 80% of the national burden concentrated in the three northern regions of Nigeria. Rotavirus vaccination was estimated to prevent 6,454 [3,960; 9,721] deaths, 13% [9%; 18%] of the national annual RV burden. National ICERs for rotavirus vaccination from the Nigerian government and Gavi perspectives were US$47 [$18; $105] and $62 [$29; $130] per DALY averted, respectively. General rotavirus vaccination was projected to reduce rotavirus mortality by only 6% [4%; 9%] in the North West region compared to 35% [24%; 47%] in the South East region. Base case ICERs ranged from US$25 [10; 56] per DALY averted in North West to US$64 [18; 157] per DALY averted in South South. Gavi perspective ICERs ranged from US$33 [$15; $68] in North West to US$88 [35; 191] per DALY averted in South South. According to one-way sensitivity analyses, ICERs were most sensitive to vaccine efficacy, followed by estimated administrative costs and rotavirus mortality. Disparities in mortality reduction were largely driven by inequality in vaccination coverage across regions and between socioeconomic subpopulations. Due to high, persistent, and inequitable burden of rotavirus in Nigeria, routine vaccination with any of these rotavirus vaccines would be an high impact and cost-effective strategy in reducing child mortality.

Introduction of rotavirus vaccination in Palestine: An evaluation of the costs, impact, and cost-effectiveness of ROTARIX and ROTAVAC

INTRODUCTION

The Palestinian Ministry of Health (MOH) started a routine rotavirus immunization program with ROTARIX in May 2016, with support for vaccine procurement and introduction provided through a global development organization. In 2018, financial responsibility for rotavirus vaccine procurement was transferred to the Palestinian government, which elected to shift to ROTAVAC vaccine because of its lower price per dose. This study aims to assess the cost, impact, and cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination, specifically evaluating the economic implications of the change in vaccine product, accounting for the different characteristics of each rotavirus vaccine used.

METHODS

We conducted primary and secondary data collection to assess the introduction, procurement, supply chain, and service delivery costs related to each vaccine. We used the UNIVAC model to project costs and benefits of rotavirus vaccination over a 10-year period comparing the use of ROTARIX versus no vaccination; ROTAVAC versus no vaccination; and ROTAVAC versus ROTARIX. We undertook scenario and probabilistic analyses to capture uncertainty in some of the study parameters. We used a 3% discount rate, and all costs are in 2018 US$.

RESULTS

The cost to deliver one dose was lower for ROTAVAC than ROTARIX (US$2.36 versus $2.70), but the total cost per course, excluding vaccine cost, favored ROTARIX ($7.09 versus $5.39). Both vaccines had high probability of being cost-effective interventions in Palestine compared to no vaccine. Because of lower vaccination program costs for ROTAVAC, however, switching from ROTARIX to ROTAVAC was cost-saving.

CONCLUSION

National decision-makers should consider systematically assessing multiple criteria beyond vaccine price when comparing the health and economic value of several products in order to fully account for all characteristics including product presentation, number of doses per course, cold chain volume, cost of delivery, and wastage.

Heterogeneity in potential impact and cost-effectiveness of ETEC and Shigella vaccination in four sub-Saharan African countries

Diarrheal disease burden has become more heterogenous in low- and lower middle-income countries as access to clean water, sanitation and health care has increased in wealthier urban populations. Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) and Shigella are among the top five causes of diarrheal mortality in children living in sub-Saharan Africa. Here, we explored how accounting for subnational and economic heterogeneity in ETEC and Shigella disease burden affects projected vaccine impact and cost-effectiveness of standalone ETEC and Shigella vaccines during the first decade after introduction in four sub-Saharan African countries. We developed dynamic models for provincial areas and socioeconomic subpopulations of children in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Kenya, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. We estimated deaths and morbidity due to ETEC and Shigella diarrhea plus additional deaths from other infectious diseases attributable to ETEC- and Shigella-induced stunting. We analyzed cost-effectiveness using Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs) with Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) and Moderate-and-Severe Diarrheal episodes (MSD) averted as denominators. Other infectious disease deaths due to induced stunting accounted for 9-28% and 9-32% of the total provincial level ETEC and Shigella disease burden, respectively, across these four countries from years 2025 to 2034. Our results indicated that the lowest and most cost-effective provincial DALYs averted ICERs were below $600 and $500/DALY averted for ETEC and Shigella vaccination, respectively in Zimbabwe. ICERs were the highest in Zambia and Kenya, where all provincial ICERs where above $2000/DALY. The highest national and provincial MSD averted ICERs were in DRC, while the lowest were in Kenya and Zimbabwe. Vaccinations were most cost-effective in averting DALYs in lower wealth subpopulations living in the highest burden provincial areas. Our approach focused on subnational heterogeneity in ETEC and Shigella burden and vaccination access found that impact and cost-effectiveness were more favorable if vaccinations reach the most vulnerable children in underserved provinces.

Molecular characterization of human group A rotavirus genotypes circulating in Rawalpindi, Islamabad, Pakistan during 2015-2016

Group A rotaviruses (RVA) are one of the major causes of acute gastroenteritis (AGE) in young children worldwide. Owing to lack of proper surveillance programs and health facilities, developing countries of Asia and Africa carry a disproportionately heavy share of the RVA disease burden. The aim of this hospital-based study was to investigate the circulation of RVA genotypes in Rawalpindi and Islamabad, Pakistan in 2015 and 2016, prior to the implementation of RVA vaccine. 639 faecal samples collected from children under 10 years of age hospitalized with AGE were tested for RVA antigen by ELISA. Among 171 ELISA positive samples, 143 were successfully screened for RT-PCR and sequencing. The prevalence of RVA was found to be 26.8% with the highest frequency (34.9%) found among children of age group 6-11 months. The most predominant circulating genotypes were G3P[8] (22.4%) followed by G12P[6] (20.3%), G2P[4] (12.6%), G1P[8] (11.9%), G9P[6] (11.9%), G3P[4] (9.1%), G1P[6] (4.2%), G9P[8] (4.2%), and G3P[6] (0.7%). A single mixed genotype G1G3P[8] was also detected. The findings of this study provide baseline data, that will help to assess if future vaccination campaigns using currently available RVA vaccine will reduce RVA disease burden and instigate evolutionary changes in the overall RVA biology. The high prevalence of RVA infections in Pakistan require to improve and strengthen the surveillance and monitoring system for RVA. This will provide useful information for health authorities in planning public health care strategies to mitigate the disease burden caused by RVA.

Experiences with rotavirus vaccines: can we improve rotavirus vaccine impact in developing countries?

Rotavirus vaccines have been introduced into over 95 countries globally and demonstrate substantial impact in reducing diarrheal mortality and diarrheal hospitalizations in young children. The vaccines are also considered by WHO as "very cost effective" interventions for young children, particularly in countries with high diarrheal disease burden. Yet the full potential impact of rotavirus immunization is yet to be realized. Large countries with big birth cohorts and where disease burden is high in Africa and Asia have not yet implemented rotavirus vaccines at all or at scale. Significant advances have been made demonstrating the impact of the vaccines in low- and lower-middle income countries, yet the modest effectiveness of the vaccines in these settings is challenging. Current research highlights these challenges and considers alternative strategies to overcome them, including alternative immunization schedules and host factors that may inform us of new opportunities.

Effects of geographic and economic heterogeneity on rotavirus diarrhea burden and vaccination impact and cost-effectiveness in the Lao People's Democratic Republic

Rotavirus enteritis is responsible for nearly 200,000 child deaths worldwide in 2015. Globally, many low- and middle-income countries have introduced rotavirus vaccine, resulting in documented reductions in hospitalizations and child mortality. We examined the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of introducing rotavirus vaccination in Lao People's Democratic Republic using an Excel-based spreadsheet model. We estimated mortality risk factors, patterns of care seeking, and vaccination access to predict outcomes for regional, provincial, and socioeconomic subpopulations for one birth cohort through their first five years of life and life course in Disability-Adjusted Life Years estimates. Socioeconomic status was defined by categorizing households into regional wealth quintiles based on a national asset index. We modeled a two-dose ROTARIX vaccine under current Gavi pricing and efficacy estimates from Bangladesh and Vietnam. DPT1 and DPT2 coverages were used to estimate rotavirus vaccination coverage. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was used to assess the impact of uncertainty on model parameters on predicted incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), including scenarios of increases in vaccination coverage. Rotavirus vaccination would prevent 143 child deaths/year, or 28% of annual rotavirus burden. The estimated national level ICER for rotavirus vaccination was $140/DALY, with regional socioeconomic subpopulation estimates ranging from $72/DALY for the poorest in the Central region to $353/DALY for the richest in the North region, indicating high cost-effectiveness. Within regions, ICERs are most favorable for children in the poorer and poorest quintiles. However, the full benefits of rotavirus vaccination will only be realized by reducing disparities in vaccination coverage, access to treatment, and environmental health. Improving vaccination coverage to equitable levels alone would prevent 87 additional child deaths per year.