Analysis of injury severity and vehicle occupancy in truck- and non-truck-involved accidents

A sequel to "Comprehensive analysis of single- and multi-vehicle large truck at-fault crashes on rural and urban roadways in Alabama": Accounting for temporal instability in crash factors

This exploratory study is a follow-up to a 2014 study that investigated factors associated with large truck at-fault crash outcomes in Alabama. To assess unobserved temporal changes in the effects of the crash factors, this study re-creates the original crash models developed in the 2014 study using crash data from 2017 to 2019. Four mixed logit models were re-created using the same variables used in the previous study to analyze contributing crash factors to injury severity of single-vehicle (SV) and multi-vehicle-involved (MV) large truck at-fault crashes in urban and rural settings. It was found that there have been temporal changes in how many of the factors influenced crash severity with some of them no longer showing any significant association with crash outcomes, while others remained significant. Further, it was observed that some of the variables that remained significant had different relationships with crash injury severity in the newer severity models. For instance, while factors such as fatigued driver (in rural crashes), clear weather (in urban crashes), single-unit truck (in rural SV crashes), truck rollover (in urban SV crashes) maintained consistent significance over time, the effects of variables such as at-fault male drivers (in urban MV crashes), at-fault female drivers (in urban MV crashes), and hitting fixed object (in rural MV crashes) have changed. One such notable difference is the variable for absence of traffic control which increased the probability of major injury in rural SV crashes by 49.50% in the 2014 model but decreased the probability of recording major injuries by 108.90% using the 2017-2019 data. Considering the temporal changes that were observed in the recreated models, newer models were developed, revealing the emergence of new variables such as truck age that are significantly associated with truck crash severity. The findings of this study provide evidence to suggest that some crash severity factors for at-fault large truck collisions vary over time, with newer ones also emerging over time. These findings can also help trucking companies, transportation engineers, and other industry experts in developing measures to reduce large truck crashes.

Driving risk identification of urban arterial and collector roads based on multi-scale data

Urban arterial and collector roads, while interconnected within the urban transportation network, serve distinct purposes, leading to different driving risk profiles. Investigating these differences using advanced methods is of paramount significance. This study aims to achieve this by primarily collecting and processing relevant vehicle trajectory data alongside driver-vehicle-road-environment data. A comprehensive risk assessment matrix is constructed to assess driving risks, incorporating multiple conflict and traffic flow indicators with statistically temporal stability. The Entropy weight-TOPSIS method and the K-means algorithm are employed to determine the risk scores and levels of the target arterial and collector roads. Using risk levels as the outcome variables and multi-scale features as the explanatory variables, random parameters models with heterogeneity in means and variances are developed to identify the determinants of driving risks at different levels. Likelihood ratio tests and comparisons of out-of-sample and within-sample prediction are conducted. Results reveal significant statistical differences in the risk profiles between arterial and collector roads. The marginal effects of significant parameters are then calculated separately for arterial and collector roads, indicating that several factors have different impacts on the probability of risk levels for arterial and collector roads, such as the number of movable elements in road landscape pictures, the standard deviation of the vehicle's lateral acceleration, the average standard deviation of speed for all vehicles on the road segment, and the number of one-way lanes on the road segment. Some practical implications are provided based on the findings. Future research can be implemented by expanding the collected data to different regions and cities over longer periods.

Beyond the surface: Exploring the temporally stable factors influencing injury severities in large-truck crashes using mixed logit models

An analysis of crash data spanning four years (January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2018) from the State of Washington is conducted to investigate factors influencing injury severity outcomes in large truck-involved crashes. The study utilizes a mixed logit model that accounts for unobserved heterogeneity to capture the variation influenced by other variables. Transferability and temporal stability across the years are assessed using the likelihood ratio test. A wide range of attributes, including driver characteristics, vehicle features, crash-related attributes, roadway conditions, environmental factors, and temporal elements, are considered. Despite a significant temporal instability warranted by the likelihood ratio test across the years, twenty-one parameters consistently exhibit stable effects on injury severity over the years of which thirteen are new. The identified stable parameters included over speeding, following too closely, falling asleep, missing/ faulty airbags, head-on collisions, crashes involving two or more than three vehicles, rear-end collisions, lane width, low-light conditions, sag curves, New Jersey barriers, snowy weather, and morning hours. The temporally stable factors affecting injury severities in large truck crashes are crucial in developing the needed to address these crashes. The findings of this study offer valuable insights for researchers, stakeholders in the trucking industry, and policymakers, empowering them to develop targeted policies that not only improve traffic safety but also alleviate associated economic losses.

Modeling of single-vehicle and multi-vehicle truck-involved crashes injury severities: A comparative and temporal analysis in a developing country

Truck-involved crashes persist as a significant concern, yielding noteworthy human casualties and causing economic ramifications, particularly in developing countries. This paper aims to undertake a comprehensive analysis of the associated factors influencing injury severity in truck-involved crashes, with a particular emphasis on discerning variations between single-vehicle and multi-vehicle incidents, as well as accounting for heterogeneity and temporal stability. The data analysis involves a meticulous examination of crash data spanning the entirety of Thailand from 2017 to 2020. Employing three distinct levels of injury severities, namely PDO injury, moderate injury, and severe injury, the study employs a series of mixed logit models that account for unobserved heterogeneity in both means and variances. Results revealed significant instability in injury risk determinants over time among both single and multi-vehicle events. Aligning predictive assessments further spotlighted fluctuations in projected burdens across models and years - collectively underscoring the imperative to integrate temporal considerations into modeling and prevention. Several crash-type distinctions and priorities emerged. For single-truck events, key risks included roadway alignments and geometry, speeding, fatigue, and lighting conditions. However multi-truck collisions concentrated around exposure factors like highway traits, sightline limitations, and vulnerable road users. Ultimately, the technique permitted responsive countermeasure targeting and recalibration opportunities keyed to each crash form's evolving landscapes. While it is indeed noteworthy that several variables have exhibited instability in their effects, it is equally important to acknowledge the existence of certain variables that maintain a relative degree of temporal stability. This underscores their pivotal role in shaping the foundation of enduring strategies aimed at enhancing traffic safety in the long run. The multifaceted investigation constitutes an invaluable reference for diverse transportation stakeholders seeking to curb rising truck fatalities through evidence-based improvements in policy, engineering, usage protocols, and technologies. It provides a blueprint for nimble safety planning within complex modernizing road systems.

Assessing the effectiveness of road safety measures in Barcelona (2013-2018)

Introduction

This article aims to determine the effectiveness and extent of measures taken to decrease the severity of traffic crashes in Barcelona from 2013 to 2018. This will be achieved through an analysis of the traffic crash data.

Method

Our approach involves the use of binary logistic regression models. We rely on the traffic crash dataset from 2010-2019 available in the Open Data Barcelona platform.

Results

The outcomes obtained from the suggested models are contrasted with the strategies outlined in the Local Road Safety Plan 2013-2018 to minimize the severity of crashes. Effective preventive actions were identified, such as road safety educational programs, creating calm zones, enhancing pedestrian crossings, or expanding bicycle lanes. However, certain measures were found to be ineffective or their impact remained uncertain.

Conclusions

Our findings indicate that the measures implemented in Barcelona may have participated in and influenced the decrease in the severity of traffic incidents over the past decade. Notably, fatalities have decreased more than severe injuries. More attention should be given to less effective measures such as speed controls and drug/alcohol testing.

Analyzing driver injury severity in two-vehicle rear-end crashes considering leading-following configurations based on passenger car and light truck involvement

Rear-end crash is a major type of traffic crashes leading to a large number of injuries and fatalities each year, and passenger cars and light trucks are two main vehicle types in rear-end crashes on US roadways. Passenger cars and light trucks are different in size, vehicle mass and driver's vision. It is necessary to investigate the driver injury outcome patterns in rear-end crashes between passenger cars and light trucks considering crash configurations regarding the leading and following vehicle types. This study employs latent class multinomial logit (MNL) model to examine the risk factors on driver injury severity along with heterogeneity in variable effects presented by the cluster pattern in two-vehicle rear-end crashes involving passenger cars and light trucks, considering four crash configuration types, i.e., a passenger car struck by a passenger car, a light truck struck by a light truck, a passenger car struck by a light truck, and a light truck struck by a passenger car as exploratory variables. A model with two latent classes, which indicates the heterogeneity in variable effects among all the observations, is found to best fit the 7-year crash dataset from Washington State. The pseudo-elasticities are calculated to quantify the marginal effects of the contributing factors. The risk factors curve and sloping road condition, driver without seatbelt, and driver age of 65 and above increase driver fatality and serious injury risk greatly, and these three factors contribute from different latent classes. The crash configuration of a passenger car struck by a light truck is found to be one of class characteristics factors, which indicates that the heterogeneity exists between these two vehicle types. This factor is also a risk factor of injury. Furthermore, the leading vehicle is found to be much more vulnerable and closely related to injury, especially when it is in the crash of a passenger car struck by a light truck. The latent classes discovered give theoretical evidence of how to appropriately select subset data for further model construction for practical interest of serious injury prevention. The risk factors and their influence on injury severity provide beneficial insights on developing relevant countermeasures and strategies for injury severity mitigation on rear-end crashes involving passenger cars and light trucks.

Injury severity of single-vehicle large-truck crashes: accounting for heterogeneity

This research examines the injury severity of single-vehicle large-truck crashes in Florida while exploring the role of heterogeneity. A random parameter ordered logit (RPOL) model was applied to 27,505 single-vehicle large-truck crashes from 2007 to 2016 in Florida, and the contributing factors were identified. Random parameters and interaction effects were introduced to the model to determine the heterogeneity and its potential sources. The results suggested that driving speed of 76-120 mph and defective tires were the most influential factors in crash injury severity, increasing the probability of severe crashes. Regarding truckers' attributes, asleep or fatigued conditions and driving under the influence were correlated with a higher possibility of severe crashes. Interestingly, the results showed that truckers from outside the state of Florida were less likely to cause severe single-vehicle large-truck crashes compared to their Floridian counterparts. Y-intersections were also found as a high-risk location for single-vehicle large-truck crashes, leading to more severe outcomes. Regarding heterogeneity, the results indicated that the impacts of driving speed (26-50 mph) and light condition (dark - not lighted) significantly varied among the observations, and these variations could be attributed to driver action, vision obstruction, driver distraction, roadway type and roadway alignment.

Applying a Health Equity Lens to Work-Related Motor Vehicle Safety in the United States

Motor vehicle crashes (MVCs) are the leading cause of fatal work-related injuries in the United States. Research assessing sociodemographic risk disparities for work-related MVCs is limited, yet structural and systemic inequities at work and during commutes likely contribute to disproportionate MVC risk. This paper summarizes the literature on risk disparities for work-related MVCs by sociodemographic and employment characteristics and identifies worker populations that have been largely excluded from previous research. The social-ecological model is used as a framework to identify potential causes of disparities at five levels-individual, interpersonal, organizational, community, and public policy. Expanded data collection and analyses of work-related MVCs are needed to understand and reduce disparities for pedestrian workers, workers from historically marginalized communities, workers with overlapping vulnerabilities, and workers not adequately covered by employer policies and safety regulations. In addition, there is a need for more data on commuting-related MVCs in the United States. Inadequate access to transportation, which disproportionately affects marginalized populations, may make travel to and from work less safe and limit individuals' access to employment. Identifying and remedying inequities in work-related MVCs, whether during the day or while commuting, will require the efforts of industry and multiple public sectors, including public health, transportation, and labor.

Reexamination of the association between development patterns and truck crashes: A case study in Dallas-Fort Worth, TX

Over the last decade, urban logistics operations have changed significantly due to globalized production and distribution systems and expanding online shopping sales. On the one hand, goods are distributed on a greater scale through large-scale transportation infrastructure. On the other, exploding online shopping shipment has added another layer of complexity to urban logistics operations. Nowadays, instant home delivery has become prevalent. Provided that the geography, extent, and frequency of freight trip generation have completely changed, it can be assumed that the relationship between the development pattern characteristics and road safety outcomes has also changed, accordingly. Then, it is imperative that the spatial distribution of truck crashes, in conjunction with development pattern characteristics, is reexamined. As a Dallas-Fort Worth, TX metro area case study, this research examines whether the spatial distribution of truck crashes on city streets is different from that of other vehicle crashes and tests whether truck crashes have a unique association with development patterns. Results show that truck and passenger car crashes are distinguished in terms of how they are associated with urban density and employment sector compositions. The explanatory variables with significant and expected signs of relationship are VMT per network mile (exposure), intersection density, household income, % non-white, and % no high school diploma. Results indicate that the spatial heterogeneity in goods shipment intensity has strong implications for the variation in truck crash patterns. Results also call for a comprehensive reexamination of trucking activity in dense urban areas.

Analyzing the injury severity in single-bicycle crashes: An application of the ordered forest with some practical guidance

This paper investigates the injury severity of cyclists in single-bicycle crashes (SBCs) in the UK. The data for analysis is constructed from the STATS19 road traffic casualty database, covering the period of 2016-2019. A machine learning-based ordered choice model termed Ordered Forest (ORF) is used. In our empirical analysis, ORF is found to produce more accurate class predictions of the SBC injury severity than the traditional random forest algorithm. Moreover, the factors associated with the injury severity are revealed, including the time and location of occurrence, the age of cyclists, roadway conditions, and crash-related factors. Specifically, old cyclists are more likely to be seriously injured in SBCs. Rural areas, higher speed limits, run-off crashes, and hitting objects are also related to an increased probability of serious injuries. While SBCs occurring at junctions, and/or during peak hours (i.e., 6:30-9:30 and 16:00-19:00) are less severe. To achieve the ambition of a step change in cycling and walking put forward by the UK Department for Transport, SBCs deserve more public attention. Lastly, regarding the implementation of ORF in crash injury severity analysis, we provide some practical guidance based on a series of simulation experiments.

Exploring Factors Affecting Crash Injury Severity with Consideration of Secondary Collisions in Freeway Tunnels

Although there have been several studies conducted exploring the factors affecting injury severity in tunnel crashes, most studies have focused on identifying factors that directly influence injury severity. In particular, variables related to crash characteristics and tunnel characteristics affect the injury severity, but the inconvenient driving environment in a tunnel space, characterized by narrow space and dark lighting, can affect crash characteristics such as secondary collisions, which in turn can affect the injury severity. Moreover, studies on secondary collisions in freeway tunnels are very limited. The objective of this study was to explore factors affecting injury severity with the consideration of secondary collisions in freeway tunnel crashes. To account for complex relationships between multiple exogenous variables and endogenous variables by considering the direct and indirect relationships between them, this study used a structural equation modeling with tunnel crash data obtained from Korean freeway tunnels from 2013 to 2017. Moreover, based on high-definition closed-circuit televisions installed every 250 m to monitor incidents in Korean freeway tunnels, this study utilized unique crash characteristics such as secondary collisions. As a result, we found that tunnel characteristics indirectly affected injury severity through crash characteristics. In addition, one variable regarding crashes involving drivers younger than 40 years old was associated with decreased injury severity. By contrast, ten variables exhibited a higher likelihood of severe injuries: crashes by male drivers, crashes by trucks, crashes in March, crashes under sunny weather conditions, crashes on dry surface conditions, crashes in interior zones, crashes in wider tunnels, crashes in longer tunnels, rear-end collisions, and secondary collisions with other vehicles.

A data fusion approach of police-hospital linked data to examine injury severity of motor vehicle crashes

Injury severity studies typically rely on police-reported crash data to examine risk factors associated with traffic injuries. The police crash database includes essential information on roadways, crashes and driver-vehicle characteristics but may not contain accurate and sufficient information on traffic injuries. Despite sizable efforts on injury severity modelling, very few studies have employed hospital records to classify injury severities accurately. As such, the inferences drawn from the police-recorded injury severity classifications may be questionable. This study investigates factors affecting road traffic injuries of motor vehicle crashes in two approaches (1) police-reported injury severity data and (2) a data fusion approach linking police and hospital records. Data from 2015 to 2019 were collected from the Abu Dhabi Traffic Police Department and linked with hospital records by the Department of Health, Abu Dhabi. A total of 6,333 casualty crashes were categorised into non-severe, severe, and fatal crashes following police-reported data and non-hospitalised, hospitalised and fatal crashes based on the police-hospital linked data. The state-of-the-art random thresholds random parameters hierarchical ordered Probit models were then employed to examine the differences in factors affecting crash-injury severities between police-reported and police-hospital linked data. While there are similarities between these two approaches, there are numerous notable differences in injury severity factors. For instance, head-on collisions are associated with high crash-injury severities in the model with police-hospital linked data, but they tend to show low injury severities in the model with police-reported data. In addition, the police-reported approach identifies that crashes occurred in remote areas and angle collisions are associated with low injury severities, which is not intuitive. These findings highlight that modelling the misclassified injury severity in police crash data may lead to wrong estimations and misleading inferences. Instead, the data fusion approach of police-hospital linked data provides critical and accurate insights into road traffic injuries and is a valuable approach for understanding traffic injuries.

Temporal analysis of cellphone-use-involved crash injury severities: Calling for preventing cellphone-use-involved distracted driving

With the popularity of smartphones and the increasing dependence on cellphones, cellphone-use-involved distracted driving has become a global traffic safety concern. Calling, texting, or watching videos while driving could have harmful impacts on driving abilities and increase crash-injury severities. To investigate the temporal stability and the heterogeneity of cellphone-involved crash injury severity determinants, a series of likelihood ratio tests and random parameters logit models with heterogeneity in means and variances are estimated. Cellphone-involved single-vehicle crash datasets of Pennsylvania from 2004 to 2019 are utilized. Marginal effects are also applied to investigate the impact of explanatory variables on injury severity outcomes. The results indicate an overall temporal instability of cellphone-involved crashes across different periods. However, driving without seatbelts and overturns are observed to produce relatively stable and positive influence on the increased injury severities of cellphone-involved crashes. Besides, it is noteworthy that a combination of cellphone usage with risky driving behaviors (aggressive driving, alcohol- or drug-related driving, speeding, or fatigue driving) significantly increase driver injury-severities. This finding highlights the necessity of identifying drivers with multiple risk-taking behaviors and enacting laws to prohibit these drivers from using cellphones while driving. Applications of smartphones provide another feasible approach to prevent using cellphones while driving. Insights and suggestions of this study would be valuable to mitigate the negative outcomes of cellphone-involved crashes and prevent the crashes caused by cellphone-involved distracted driving in the future.

Analysis of Factors Contributing to the Injury Severity of Overloaded-Truck-Related Crashes on Mountainous Highways in China

Overloaded transport can certainly improve transportation efficiency and reduce operating costs. Nevertheless, several negative consequences are associated with this illegal activity, including road subsidence, bridge collapse, and serious casualties caused by accidents. Given the complexity and variability of mountainous highways, this study examines 1862 overloaded-truck-related crashes that happened in Yunnan Province, China, and attempts to analyze the key factors contributing to the injury severity. This is the first time that the injury severity has been studied from the perspective of crashes involving overloaded trucks, and meanwhile in a scenario of mountainous highways. For in-depth analysis, three models are developed, including a binary logit model, a random parameter logit model, and a classification and regression tree, but the results show that the random parameter logit model outperforms the other two. In the best-performing model, a total of fifteen variables are found to be significant at the 99% confidence level, including random variables such as freeway, broadside hitting, impaired braking performance, spring, and evening. In regards to the fixed variables, it is likely that the single curve, rollover, autumn, and winter variables will increase the probability of fatalities, whereas the provincial highway, country road, urban road, cement, wet, and head-on variables will decrease the likelihood of death. Our findings are useful for industry-related departments in formulating and implementing corresponding countermeasures, such as strengthening the inspection of commercial trucks, increasing the penalties for overloaded trucks, and installing certain protective equipment and facilities on crash-prone sections.

Identification of Factors Affecting Road Traffic Injuries Incidence and Severity in Southern Thailand Based on Accident Investigation Reports

Thailand has the second-highest rates of road traffic mortality globally. Detailed information on the combination of human, vehicle, and environmental risks giving rise to each incident is important for addressing risk factors holistically. This paper presents the result of forensic road traffic investigation reports in Thailand and determines risk factor patterns for road traffic injuries. Detailed forensic reports were extracted for 25 serious traffic accident events. The Haddon matrix was used to analyze risk factors in three phases stratified by four agents. The 25 events analyzed involved 407 victims and 47 vehicles. A total of 65.8% of victims were injured, including 14.5% who died. The majority (66.1%) of deaths occurred at the scene. Human-error-related factors included speeding and drowsiness. Passenger risks included not using the seat belt, sitting in the cargo area and the cab of pickups. Overloaded vehicles, unsafe car modifications, no occupant safety equipment and having unfixed seats were vehicular risks. Environmental risks included fixed objects on the roadside, no traffic lights, no guard rails, no traffic signs, and road accident black spots. At present, traffic accidents cause much avoidable severe injury and death. The outcome of this paper identifies a number of preventable risk factors for traffic injury, and importantly examines them in conjunction. Road traffic safety measures need to consider how human, vehicle, and environmental risks intersect to influence injury likelihood and severity. The Haddon matrix is useful in identifying these pre- and post-accident risk factors. Furthermore, the sustainable preventions of road traffic injury need to address these risks together with active law enforcement.

Assessment of commercial truck driver injury severity based on truck configuration along a mountainous roadway using hierarchical Bayesian random intercept approach

For the last decade, disaggregate modeling approach has been frequently practiced to analyze truck-involved crash injury severity. This included truck-involved crashes based on single and multi-vehicles, rural and urban locations, time of day variations, roadway classification, lighting, and weather conditions. However, analyzing commercial truck driver injury severity based on truck configuration is still missing. This paper aims to fill this knowledge gap by undertaking an extensive assessment of truck driver injury severity in truck-involved crashes based on various truck configurations (i.e. single-unit truck with two or more axles, single-unit truck pulling a trailer, semi-trailer/tractor, and double trailer/tractor) using ten years (2007-2016) of Wyoming crash data through hierarchical Bayesian random intercept approach. The log-likelihood ratio tests were conducted to justify that separate models by various truck configurations are warranted. The results obtained from the individual models demonstrate considerable differences among the four truck configuration models. The age, gender, and residency of the truck driver, multi-vehicles involvement, license restriction, runoff road, work zones, presence of junctions, and median type were found to have significantly different impacts on the driver injury severity. These differences in both the combination and the magnitude of the impact of variables justified the importance of examining truck driver injury severity for different truck configuration types. With the incorporation of the random intercept in the modeling procedure, the analysis found a strong presence (24%-42%) of intra-crash correlation (effects of the common crash-specific unobserved factors) in driver injury severity within the same crash. Finally, based on the findings of this study, several potential countermeasures are suggested.

Investigating factors affecting severity of large truck-involved crashes: Comparison of the SVM and random parameter logit model

INTRODUCTION

Reducing the severity of crashes is a top priority for safety researchers due to its impact on saving human lives. Because of safety concerns posed by large trucks and the high rate of fatal large truck-involved crashes, an exploration into large truck-involved crashes could help determine factors that are influential in crash severity. The current study focuses on large truck-involved crashes to predict influencing factors on crash injury severity.

METHOD

Two techniques have been utilized: Random Parameter Binary Logit (RPBL) and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Models have been developed to estimate: (1) multivehicle (MV) truck-involved crashes, in which large truck drivers are at fault, (2) MV track-involved crashes, in which large truck drivers are not at fault and (3) and single-vehicle (SV) large truck crashes.

RESULTS

Fatigue and deviation to the left were found as the most important contributing factors that lead to fatal crashes when the large truck-driver is at fault. Outcomes show that there are differences among significant factors between RPBL and SVM. For instance, unsafe lane-changing was significant in all three categories in RPBL, but only SV large truck crashes in SVM.

CONCLUSIONS

The outcomes showed the importance of the complementary approaches to incorporate both parametric RPBL and non-parametric SVM to identify the main contributing factors affecting the severity of large truck-involved crashes. Also, the results highlighted the importance of categorization based on the at-fault party. Practical Applications: Unrealistic schedules and expectations of trucking companies can cause excessive stress for the large truck drivers, which could leads to further neglect of their fatigue. Enacting and enforcing comprehensive regulations regarding large truck drivers' working schedules and direct and constant surveillance by authorities would significantly decrease large truck-involved crashes.

Injury-severity analysis of lane change crashes involving commercial motor vehicles on interstate highways

INTRODUCTION

One of the challenging tasks for drivers is the ability to change lanes around large commercial motor vehicles. Lane changing is often characterized by speed, and crashes that occur due to unsafe lane changes can have serious consequences. Considering the economic importance of commercial trucks, ensuring the safety, security, and resilience of freight transportation is of paramount concern to the United States Department of Transportation and other stakeholders.

METHOD

In this study, a mixed (random parameters) logit model was developed to better understand the relationship between crash factors and associated injury severities of commercial vehicle crashes involving lane change on interstate highways. The study was based on 2009-2016 crash data from Alabama.

RESULTS

Preliminary data analysis showed that about 4% of the observed crashes were major injury crashes and drivers of commercial motor vehicles were at-fault in more than half of the crashes. Acknowledging potential crash data limitations, the model estimation results reveal that there is increased probability of major injury when lane change crashes occurred on dark unlit portions of interstates and involve older drivers, at-fault commercial vehicle drivers, and female drivers. The results further show that lane change crashes that occurred on interstates with higher number of travel lanes were less likely to have major injury outcomes. Practical Applications: These findings can help policy makers and state transportation agencies increase awareness on the hazards of changing lanes in the immediate vicinity and driving in the blind spots of large commercial motor vehicles. Additionally, law enforcement efforts may be intensified during times and locations of increased unsafe lane changing activities. These findings may also be useful in commercial vehicle driver training and driver licensing programs.

Risk factors associated with truck-involved fatal crash severity: Analyzing their impact for different groups of truck drivers

INTRODUCTION

Fatal crashes that include at least one fatality of an occupant within 30 days of the crash cause large numbers of injured persons and property losses, especially when a truck is involved.

METHOD

To better understand the underlying effects of truck-driver-related characteristics in fatal crashes, a five-year (from 2012 to 2016) dataset from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) was used for analysis. Based on demographic attributes, driving violation behavior, crash histories, and conviction records of truck drivers, a latent class clustering analysis was applied to classify truck drivers into three groups, namely, ''middle-aged and elderly drivers with low risk of driving violations and high historical crash records," ''drivers with high risk of driving violations and high historical crash records," and ''middle-aged drivers with no driving violations and conviction records." Next, equivalent fatalities were used to scale fatal crash severities into three levels. Subsequently, a partial proportional odds (PPO) model for each driver group was developed to identify the risk factors associated with the crash severity. Results' Conclusions: The model estimation results showed that the risk factors, as well as their impacts on different driver groups, were different. Adverse weather conditions, rural areas, curved alignments, tractor-trailer units, heavier weights and various collision manners were significantly associated with the crash severities in all driver groups, whereas driving violation behaviors such as driving under the influence of alcohol or drugs, fatigue, or carelessness were significantly associated with the high-risk group only, and fewer risk factors and minor marginal effects were identified for the low-risk groups. Practical Applications: Corresponding countermeasures for specific truck driver groups are proposed. And drivers with high risk of driving violations and high historical crash records should be more concerned.

Modelling two-vehicle crash severity by generalized estimating equations

The crash severity levels of two parties involved in a two-vehicle accident may differ markedly and may be correlated. Separately estimating the severity levels of two parties ignoring their potential correlation may lead to biased estimation; however, modelling their severity levels simultaneously by using a bivariate modelling approach requires a complex model setting. Thus, this study used generalized estimating equations (GEE) to accommodate potential correlations when estimating the crash severity levels of two parties. To investigate the performance of the GEE models, a case study on a total of 2493 crashes at 214 signalized intersections in Taipei City in 2013 is conducted. Univariate ordered probit model, bivariate ordered probit model, and GEE ordered probit model (GEE-OP) with different working matrices are respectively estimated and compared. The estimation results of GEE models showed that the GEE-OP with the exchangeable working matrix performs best and the most influential factor contributing to crash severity is vehicle type (motorcycle), followed by speeding, angle impact, and alcoholic use. Thus, to curtail motorcycle usage by increasing parking fee or reducing parking space of motorcycles, to crack down on speeding and alcoholic use, and to redesign the signal timings to avoid possible angle impact accidents are identified as key countermeasures.

Why the government should be blamed for road safety

The government plays an important role in road safety. However, the effectiveness of the government in the context of road traffic accidents (RTAs) is rarely measured quantitatively. This study aims to quantitatively examine the effects of government regulation on human and organizational factors. A contributing factors classification framework of RTAs is presented based on the human factors analysis and classification system, one of the most popular systems approaches. A total of 405 major RTAs was collected over a 20-year period (1997-2017) in China and analyzed through the structural equation model. The results lead to two main conclusions: the frequency of inadequate regulation, which has reached 343, is the highest frequency among all contributing factors; government regulation exhibits significant effects on organizational influences, unsafe supervision and unsafe behaviors. These findings provide a new perspective for accident prevention that can be initiated by the government in policy-making and regulatory activities.

Analysis of Factors Contributing to the Severity of Large Truck Crashes

Crashes that involved large trucks often result in immense human, economic, and social losses. To prevent and mitigate severe large truck crashes, factors contributing to the severity of these crashes need to be identified before appropriate countermeasures can be explored. In this research, we applied three tree-based machine learning (ML) techniques, i.e., random forest (RF), gradient boost decision tree (GBDT), and adaptive boosting (AdaBoost), to analyze the factors contributing to the severity of large truck crashes. Besides, a mixed logit model was developed as a baseline model to compare with the factors identified by the ML models. The analysis was performed based on the crash data collected from the Texas Crash Records Information System (CRIS) from 2011 to 2015. The results of this research demonstrated that the GBDT model outperforms other ML methods in terms of its prediction accuracy and its capability in identifying more contributing factors that were also identified by the mixed logit model as significant factors. Besides, the GBDT method can effectively identify both categorical and numerical factors, and the directions and magnitudes of the impacts of the factors identified by the GBDT model are all reasonable and explainable. Among the identified factors, driving under the influence of drugs, alcohol, and fatigue are the most important factors contributing to the severity of large truck crashes. In addition, the exists of curbs and medians and lanes and shoulders with sufficient width can prevent severe large truck crashes.

Exploring the Injury Severity Risk Factors in Fatal Crashes with Neural Network

A better understanding of circumstances contributing to the severity outcome of traffic crashes is an important goal of road safety studies. An in-depth crash injury severity analysis is vital for the proactive implementation of appropriate mitigation strategies. This study proposes an improved feed-forward neural network (FFNN) model for predicting injury severity associated with individual crashes using three years (2017–2019) of crash data collected along 15 rural highways in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). A total of 12,566 crashes were recorded during the study period with a binary injury severity outcome (fatal or non-fatal injury) for the variable to be predicted. FFNN architecture with back-propagation (BP) as a training algorithm, logistic as activation function, and six number of hidden neurons in the hidden layer yielded the best model performance. Results of model prediction for the test data were analyzed using different evaluation metrics such as overall accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. Prediction results showed the adequacy and robust performance of the proposed method. A detailed sensitivity analysis of the optimized NN was also performed to show the impact and relative influence of different predictor variables on resulting crash injury severity. The sensitivity analysis results indicated that factors such as traffic volume, average travel speeds, weather conditions, on-site damage conditions, road and vehicle type, and involvement of pedestrians are the most sensitive variables. The methods applied in this study could be used in big data analysis of crash data, which can serve as a rapid-useful tool for policymakers to improve highway safety.

A copula-based approach for jointly modeling crash severity and number of vehicles involved in express bus crashes on expressways considering temporal stability of data

The consequences of crashes, including injury, loss of lives, and damage to properties, are further worsened when buses plying expressways are involved in the crash. Previous studies have separately analyzed crash severity in terms of monetary cost, injuries and loss of lives, and the size of crashes in terms of the number of vehicles involved. However, as both outcome variables are correlated, it is imperative to perform a combined analysis using an appropriate econometric model to achieve a better model fit. This study contributes to the literature by jointly exploring the factors influencing the severity and size of express bus-involved crashes that occur on expressways and characterizes the dependence between both outcome variables by employing a more plausible copula regression framework. Likelihood ratio tests were also conducted to investigate the temporal stability of the factors that affect both crash severity and size. Based on the goodness-of-fit statistics, the Frank copula model proved superior to the independent ordered probit model. The estimate of the underlying dependence between the outcome variables provided a better comprehension of the correlation between them. Temporal instability was detected for the individual parameters in the models and is attributed to the changing driving behavior due to the heightened road safety campaigns. The results suggest that traffic exposure measures are significantly associated with a higher propensity of observing increased bus crash severity and size. Insights into the factors influencing the size and severity of express bus crashes are discussed, and appropriate engineering, enforcement, and education-related countermeasures are proposed.

An energy loss-based vehicular injury severity model

How crashes translate into physical injuries remains controversial. Previous studies recommended a predictor, Delta-V, to describe the crash consequences in terms of mass and impact speed of vehicles in crashes. This study adopts a new factor, energy loss-based vehicular injury severity (ELVIS), to explain the effects of the energy absorption of two vehicles in a collision. This calibrated variable, which is fitted with regression-based and machine learning models, is compared with the widely-used Delta-V predictor. A multivariate ordered logistic regression with multiple classes is then estimated. The results align with the observation that heavy vehicles are more likely to have inherent protection and rigid structures, especially in the side direction, and so suffer less impact.

An exploratory analysis of factors associated with traffic crashes severity in Cartagena, Colombia

Traffic fatalities are the second cause of violent deaths in Colombia. However, due to the signing of the peace agreement and the growing number of fatalities in road crashes, it is possible that soon traffic fatalities will be the primary cause of violent deaths in the country, particularly in urban areas. This study is an exploratory analysis focused on identifying the main factors associated with the severity of traffic crashes in urban areas, using Cartagena as a case study. We analyzed three levels of crash severity, namely fatal, injury, and property-damage-only, considering factors in several different dimensions: victim, vehicle, road infrastructure, traffic and control, day and time, and environmental factors. A modeling approach based on multinomial ordered discrete models was used to properly identify the main factors associated with the severity levels. We found that the probability of fatal accidents is higher on streets with speed limits over 40 km/h, and that males and people aged 60 years or older are the victims with the most significant risk of fatal crashes. Motorcycles were also identified as vehicles with the highest probability of fatal crashes in the city. We showed that the probability of fatal crashes occurring is higher on streets where pedestrian bridges, traffic lights, and crosswalks are present. These findings are worthy because, in Colombia and other developing countries, the authorities normally expect to reduce the probability of fatal accidents through investments in pedestrian bridges, signaling devices, and crosswalk markings. However, according to our results, it possibly will not occur unless further countermeasures are taken. Based on these findings, reducing speed limits, operational improvements at signalized intersections, zero tolerance for traffic violations related to pedestrians, an awareness campaign on pedestrian safety focused on males and people aged 60 or older, and improving motorcycle safety are the countermeasures we proposed. Furthermore, as the authorities make significant efforts to investing in pedestrian bridges, we propose a further investigation into the traffic crashes in streets where there is this infrastructure since more severe events occur near them.

Identifying the Factors That Increase the Probability of an Injury or Fatal Traffic Crash in an Urban Context in Jordan

The lack of robust studies carried out on urban roads in developing countries makes it difficult to enhance traffic safety, ensuring sustainable roads and cities. This study analyzes the contribution of a number of explanatory variables behind crashes involving injuries on arterial roads in Irbid (Jordan). Five binary logistic regression models were calibrated for a crash dataset from 2014–2018: one for the full database, and the others for the four main crash causes identified by Jordanian Traffic Police reports. The models show that whatever the crash cause, the three most significant factors linked to an injury or fatality lie in urban road sections that are in large-scale neighborhood areas, have fewer than six accesses per kilometer, and have a low traffic volume (under 500 veh/h/ln). Some of these results agree with previous studies in other countries. Jordan’s governmental agencies concerned with urban road safety might use these results to develop appropriate plans and implement priority actions for each crash cause, in addition to undertaking further research for comparative purposes.

Investigating occupant injury severity of truck-involved crashes based on vehicle types on a mountainous freeway: A hierarchical Bayesian random intercept approach

Earlier research on injury severity of truck-involved crashes focused primarily on single-truck and multi-vehicle crashes with truck involvement, or investigated truck-involved injury severity based on rural and urban locations, time of day variations, lighting conditions, roadway classification, and weather conditions. However, the impact of different vehicle-truck collisions on corresponding occupant injury severity is lacking. Therefore, this paper advances the current research by undertaking an extensive assessment of the occupant injury severity in truck-involved crashes based on vehicle types (i.e., single-truck, truck-car, truck-SUV/pickup, and truck-truck), and identifies the major occupant-, crash-, and geometric-related contributing factors. A series of log-likelihood ratio tests were conducted to justify that separate model by vehicle and occupant types are warranted. Injury severity models were developed using 10 years of crash data (2007-2016) on I-80 in Wyoming through binary logistic modeling with a Bayesian inference approach. The modeling results indicated that there were significant differences between the influences of a variety of variables on the injury severities when the truck-involved crashes are broken down by vehicle types and separated by occupant types. The age and gender of occupants, truck driver occupation, driver residency, sideswipes, presence of junctions, downgrades, curves, and weather conditions were found to have significantly different impacts on the occupant injury severity in different vehicle-truck crashes. Finally, with the incorporation of the random intercept in the modeling procedure, the presence of intra-crash and intra-vehicle correlations (effects of the common crash- and vehicle-specific unobserved factors) in injury severities were identified among persons within the same crash and same vehicle.

Fifty Years of Accident Analysis & Prevention: A Bibliometric and Scientometric Overview

Accident Analysis & Prevention (AA&P) is a leading academic journal established in 1969 that serves as an important scientific communication platform for road safety studies. To celebrate its 50^th anniversary of publishing outstanding and insightful studies, a multi-dimensional statistical and visualized analysis of the AA&P publications between 1969 and 2018 was performed using the Web of Science (WoS) Core Collection database, bibliometrics and mapping-knowledge-domain (MKD) analytical methods, and scientometric tools. It was shown that the annual number of AA&P's publications has grown exponentially and that over the course of its development, AA&P has been a leader in the field of road safety, both in terms of innovation and dissemination. By determining its key source countries and organizations, core authors, highly co-cited published documents, and high burst-strength publications, we showed that AA&P's areas of focus include the "effects of hazard and risk perception on driving behavior", "crash frequency modeling analysis", "intentional driving violations and aberrant driving behavior", "epidemiology, assessment and prevention of road traffic injuries", and "crash-injury severity modeling analysis". Furthermore, the key burst papers that have played an important role in advancing research and guiding AA&P in new directions - particularly those in the fields of crash frequency and crash-injury severity modeling analyses were identified. Finally, a modified Haddon matrix in the era of intelligent, connected and autonomous transportation systems is proposed to provide new insights into the emerging generation of road safety studies.

Injury severity analysis of truck-involved crashes under different weather conditions

This paper investigates truck-involved crashes to determine the statistically significant factors that contribute to injury severity under different weather conditions. The analysis uses crash data from the state of Ohio between 2011 and 2015 available from the Highway Safety Information System. To determine if weather conditions should be considered separately for truck safety analyses, parameter transferability tests are conducted; the results suggest that weather conditions should be modeled separately with a high level of statistical confidence. To this end, three separate mixed logit models are estimated for three different weather conditions: normal, rain and snow. The estimated models identify a variety of statistically significant factors influencing the injury severity. Different weather conditions are found to have different contributing effects on injury severity in truck-involved crashes. Rural, rear-end and sideswipe crash parameters were found to have significantly different levels of impact on injury severity. Based on the findings of this study, several countermeasures are suggested: 1) safety and enforcement programs should focus on female truck drivers, 2) a variable speed limit sign should be used to lower speeds of trucks during rainy condition, and 3) trucks should be restricted or prohibited on non-interstates during rainy and snowy conditions. These countermeasures could reduce the number and severity of truck-involved crashes under different weather conditions.

Investigating the injury severity of single-vehicle truck crashes in a developing country

Trucking plays a vital role in economic development in every country, especially countries where it serves as the backbone of the economy. The fast growth of economy in Iran as a developing country has also been accompanied by an alarming situation in terms of fatalities in truck-involved crashes, among the drivers and passengers of the trucks as well as the other vehicles involved. Despite the sizable efforts to investigate the truck-involved crashes, very little is known about the safety of truck movements in developing countries, and about the single-truck crashes worldwide. Thus, this study aims to uncover significant factors associated with injury severities sustained by truck drivers in single-vehicle truck crashes in Iran. The explanatory factors tested in the models include the characteristics of drivers, vehicles, and roadways. A random threshold random parameters hierarchical ordered probit model is utilized to consider heterogeneity across observations. Several variables turned out to be significant in the model, including driver's education, advanced braking system deployment, presence of curves on roadways, and high speed-limit. Using those results, we propose safety countermeasures in three categories of 1) educational, 2) technological, and 3) road engineering to mitigate the severity of single-vehicle truck crashes.

Risk Assessment of Commercial dangerous -goods truck drivers using geo-location data: A case study in China

The primary objective of this study is to understand the relationship between driving risk of commercial dangerous-goods truck (CDT) and exposure factors and find a way to evaluate the risk of specific transportation environment, such as specific transportation route. Due to increasing transportation demand and potential threat to public, commercial dangerous goods transportation (CDGT) has drawn attention from decision makers and researchers within governmental and non-governmental safety organization. However, there are few studies focusing on driving risk assessment of commercial dangerous-goods truck by environmental factors. In this paper we employ survival analysis methods to analyze the impact of risk exposure factors on non-accident mileage of commercial dangerous-good truck and assess risk level of specific driving environment. Using raw location data from six transportation companies in China, we derive a set of 17 risk exposure factors that we use for model parameters estimation. The survival model and hazard model were estimated using the Weibull distribution as the baseline distribution. The results show that four factors - weather, traffic flow, travel time and average velocity have a significant impact on the non-accident mileage of driver in this company, and the assessment results of survival function and hazard function are robust to the different levels of testing data. The employment time has some effect on the results but does not result in a significant difference in most cases, and the task stability has little impact on the results. The findings of this study should be useful for decision makers and transportation companies to better risk assessment of CDT.

Geographical Detection of Traffic Accidents Spatial Stratified Heterogeneity and Influence Factors

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the existence of stratification heterogeneity in traffic accidents in Shenzhen, what factors influence the casualties, and the interaction of those factors. Geographical detection methods are used for the analysis of traffic accidents in Shenzhen. Results show that spatial stratification heterogeneity does exist, and the influencing factors of fatalities and injuries are different. The traffic accident causes and types of primary responsible party have a strong impact on fatalities and injuries, followed by zones and time interval. However, road factors, lighting, topography, etc., only have a certain impact on fatalities. Drunk driving, speeding over 50%, and overloading are more likely to cause more casualties than other illegal behaviors. Speeding over 50% and speeding below 50% have significant different influences on fatalities, while the influences on injuries are not obvious, and so do drunk driving (Blood Alcohol Concentration ≥ 0.08) and driving under the influence of alcohol (0.08 > Blood Alcohol Concentration ≥ 0.02). Both pedestrians and cyclists violating the traffic law are vulnerable to fatality. Heavy truck overloading is more likely to cause major traffic accidents than minibuses. More importantly, there are nonlinear enhanced interactions between the influencing factors, the combination of previous non-significant factors and other factors can have a significant impact on the traffic accident casualties. The findings could be helpful for making differentiated prevention and control measures for traffic accidents in Shenzhen and the method selection of subsequent research.

A Random Parameters Ordered Probit Analysis of Injury Severity in Truck Involved Rear-End Collisions

Social and economic burdens caused by truck-involved rear-end collisions are of great concern to public health and the environment. However, few efforts focused on identifying the difference of impacting factors on injury severity between car-strike-truck and truck-strike-car in rear-end collisions. In light of the above, this study focuses on illustrating the impact of variables associated with injury severity in truck-related rear-end crashes. To this end, truck involved rear-end crashes between 2006 and 2015 in the U.S. were obtained. Three random parameters ordered probit models were developed: two separate models for the car-strike-truck crashes and the truck-strike-car crashes, respectively, and one for the combined dataset. The likelihood ratio test was conducted to evaluate the significance of the difference between the models. The results show that there is a significant difference between car-strike-truck and truck-strike-car crashes in terms of contributing factors towards injury severity. In addition, indicators reflecting male, truck, starting or stopped in the road before a crash, and other vehicles stopped in lane show a mixed impact on injury severity. Corresponding implications were discussed according to the findings to reduce the possibility of severe injury in truck-involved rear-end collisions.

Identification of differential risk hotspots for collision and vehicle type in a directed linear network

Traffic accidents can take place in very different ways and involve a substantially distinct number and types of vehicles. Thus, it is of interest to know which parts of a road structure present an overrepresentation of a specific type of traffic accident, specially for some typologies of collisions and vehicles that tend to trigger more severe consequences for the users being involved. In this study, a spatial approach is followed to estimate the risk that different types of collisions and vehicles present in the central area of Valencia (Spain), considering the accidents observed in this city during the period 2014-2017. A directed spatial linear network representing the non-pedestrian road structure of the area of interest was employed to guarantee an accurate analysis of the point pattern. A kernel density estimation technique was used to approximate the probability of risk along the network for each collision and vehicle type. A procedure based on these estimates and the sample size locally available within the network was designed and tested to determine a set of differential risk hotspots for each typology of accident considered. A Monte Carlo based simulation process was then defined to assess the statistical significance of each of the differential risk hotspots found, allowing the elaboration of rankings of importance and the possible rejection of the least significant ones.

Injury Severity and Contributing Driver Actions in Passenger Vehicle-Truck Collisions

Large-scale truck-involved crashes attract great attention due to their increasingly severe injuries. The majority of those crashes are passenger vehicle–truck collisions. This study intends to investigate the critical relationship between truck/passenger vehicle driver’s intentional or unintentional actions and the associated injury severity in passenger vehicle–truck crashes. A random-parameter model was developed to estimate the complicated associations between the risk factors and injury severity by using a comprehensive Virginia crash dataset. The model explored the unobserved heterogeneity while controlling for the driver, vehicle, and roadway factors. Compared with truck passengers, occupants in passenger vehicles are six times and ten times more likely to suffer minor injuries and serious/fatal injuries, respectively. Importantly, regardless of whether passenger vehicle drivers undertook intentional or unintentional actions, the crashes are more likely to associate with more severe injury outcomes. In addition, crashes occurring late at night and in early mornings are often correlated with more severe injuries. Such associations between explanatory factors and injury severity are found to vary across the passenger vehicle–truck crashes, and such significant variations of estimated parameters further confirmed the validity of applying the random-parameter model. More implications based on the results and suggestions in terms of safe driving are discussed.

Comparison of univariate and two-stage approaches for estimating crash frequency by severity-Case study for horizontal curves on two-lane rural roads

The Highway Safety Manual (HSM) procedures apply specific safety performance functions (SPFs) and crash modification factors (CMFs) appropriate for estimating the safety effects of design and operational changes to a roadway. Although the applicability of the SPFs and CMFs may significantly vary by crash severity, they are mainly based on total crash counts, with different approaches for estimation of crashes by crash severity. The variety of approaches in the HSM and in the literature in general suggests that there may be no one best approach for all situations, and that there is a need to develop and compare alternative approaches for each potential application. This paper addresses this need by demonstrating the development and comparison of alternative approaches using horizontal curves on two-lane roads as a case study. This site type was chosen because of the high propensity for severe crashes and the potential for exploring a wide range of variables that affect this propensity. To facilitate this investigation, a two-stage modeling approach is developed whereby the proportion of crashes for each severity level is estimated as a function of roadway-specific factors and traffic attributes and then applied to an estimate of total crashes from an SPF. Using Highway Safety Information System (HSIS) curve data for Washington state, a heterogeneous negative binomial (HTNB) regression model is estimated for total crash counts and then applied with severity distribution functions (SDFs) developed by a generalized ordered probit model (GOP). To evaluate the performance of this two-stage approach, a comparison is made with predictions directly obtained from estimated univariate SPFs for crash frequency by severity and also from a fixed proportion method that has been suggested in the HSM. The results revealed that, while the two-stage SDF approach and univariate approach adopt different procedures for model estimation, their prediction accuracies are similar, and both are superior to the fixed proportion method. In short, this study highlights the potential of the two-stage SDF approach in accounting for crash frequency variations by severity levels, at least for curved two-lane road sections, and especially for the all too frequent cases where samples are too small to estimate viable univariate crash severity models.

Injury severity analysis of commercially-licensed drivers in single-vehicle crashes: Accounting for unobserved heterogeneity and age group differences

This study analyzes the injury severity of commercially-licensed drivers involved in single-vehicle crashes. Considering the discrete ordinal nature of injury severity data, the ordered response modeling framework was adopted. The moderating effect of driver's age on all other factors was examined by segmenting the parameters by driver's age group. Additional effects of the different drivers' age groups are taken into consideration through interaction terms. Unobserved heterogeneity of the different covariates was investigated using the Mixed Generalized Ordered Response Probit (MGORP) model. The empirical analysis was conducted using four years of the Highway Safety Information System (HSIS) data that included 6247 commercially-licensed drivers involved in single-vehicle crashes in the state of Minnesota. The MGORP model elasticity effects indicate that key factors that increase the likelihood of severe crashes for commercially-licensed drivers across all age groups include: lack of seatbelt usage, collision with a fixed object, speeding, vehicle age of 11 years or more, wind, night time, weekday, and female drivers. Also, the effects of several covariates were found to vary across different age groups.

Analysis of hourly crash likelihood using unbalanced panel data mixed logit model and real-time driving environmental big data

INTRODUCTION

Driving environment, including road surface conditions and traffic states, often changes over time and influences crash probability considerably. It becomes stretched for traditional crash frequency models developed in large temporal scales to capture the time-varying characteristics of these factors, which may cause substantial loss of critical driving environmental information on crash prediction.

METHOD

Crash prediction models with refined temporal data (hourly records) are developed to characterize the time-varying nature of these contributing factors. Unbalanced panel data mixed logit models are developed to analyze hourly crash likelihood of highway segments. The refined temporal driving environmental data, including road surface and traffic condition, obtained from the Road Weather Information System (RWIS), are incorporated into the models.

RESULTS

Model estimation results indicate that the traffic speed, traffic volume, curvature and chemically wet road surface indicator are better modeled as random parameters. The estimation results of the mixed logit models based on unbalanced panel data show that there are a number of factors related to crash likelihood on I-25. Specifically, weekend indicator, November indicator, low speed limit and long remaining service life of rutting indicator are found to increase crash likelihood, while 5-am indicator and number of merging ramps per lane per mile are found to decrease crash likelihood.

CONCLUSIONS

The study underscores and confirms the unique and significant impacts on crash imposed by the real-time weather, road surface, and traffic conditions. With the unbalanced panel data structure, the rich information from real-time driving environmental big data can be well incorporated.

Overloading among crash-involved vehicles in China: identification of factors associated with overloading and crash severity

OBJECTIVE

Motor vehicle overloading is correlated with the possibility of road crash occurrence and severity. Although overloading of motor vehicles is pervasive in developing nations, few empirical analyses have been performed on factors that might influence the occurrence of overloading. This study aims to address this shortcoming by seeking evidence from several years of crash data from Guangdong province, China.

METHODS

Data on overloading and other factors are extracted for crash-involved vehicles from traffic crash records for 2006-2010 provided by the Traffic Management Bureau in Guangdong province. Logistic regression is applied to identify risk factors for overloading in crash-involved vehicles and within these crashes to identify factors contributing to greater crash severity. Driver, vehicle, road and environmental characteristics and violation types are considered in the regression models. In addition to the basic logistic models, association analysis is employed to identify the potential interactions among different risk factors during fitting the logistic models of overloading and severity.

RESULTS

Crash-involved vehicles driven by males from rural households and in an unsafe condition are more likely to be overloaded and to be involved in higher severity overloaded vehicle crashes. If overloaded vehicles speed, the risk of severe traffic crash casualties increases. Young drivers (aged under 25 years) in mountainous areas are more likely to be involved in higher severity overloaded vehicle crashes.

CONCLUSIONS

This study identifies several factors associated with overloading in crash-involved vehicles and with higher severity overloading crashes and provides an important reference for future research on those specific risk factors.

Secondary collisions and injury severity: A joint analysis using structural equation models

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to investigate the contributing factors to secondary collisions and the effects of secondary collisions on injury severity levels. Manhattan, which is the most densely populated urban area of New York City, is used as a case study. In Manhattan, about 7.5% of crash events become involved with secondary collisions and as high as 9.3% of those secondary collisions lead to incapacitating and fatal injuries.

METHODS

Structural equation models (SEMs) are proposed to jointly model the presence of secondary collisions and injury severity levels and adjust for the endogeneity effects. The structural relationship among secondary collisions, injury severity, and contributing factors such as speeding, alcohol, fatigue, brake defects, limited view, and rain are fully explored using SEMs. In addition, to assess the temporal effects, we use time as a moderator in the proposed SEM framework.

RESULTS

Due to its better performance compared with other models, the SEM with no constraint is used to investigate the contributing factors to secondary collisions. Thirteen explanatory variables are found to contribute to the presence of secondary collisions, including alcohol, drugs, inattention, inexperience, sleep, control disregarded, speeding, fatigue, defective brakes, pedestrian involved, defective pavement, limited view, and rain. Regarding the temporal effects, results indicate that it is more likely to sustain secondary collisions and severe injuries at night.

CONCLUSIONS

This study fully investigates the contributing factors to secondary collisions and estimates the safety effects of secondary collisions after adjusting for the endogeneity effects and shows the advantage of using SEMs in exploring the structural relationship between risk factors and safety indicators. Understanding the causes and impacts of secondary collisions can help transportation agencies and automobile manufacturers develop effective injury prevention countermeasures.

Understanding factors associated with misclassification of fatigue-related accidents in police record

INTRODUCTION

Fatigue is one of the riskiest causes of traffic accidents threatening road safety. Due to lack of proper criteria, the identification of fatigue-related accidents by police officers largely depends on inferential evidence and their own experience. As a result, many fatigue-related accidents are misclassified and the harmfulness of fatigue on road safety is misestimated.

METHOD

In this paper, a joint model framework is introduced to analyze factors contributing to misclassification of a fatigue-related accident in police reports. Association rule data mining technique is employed to identify the potential interactions of factors, and logistic regression models are applied to analyze factors that hinder police officers' identification of fatigue-related accidents. Using the fatigue-related crash records from Guangdong Province during 2005-2014, factors contributing to the false positive and false negative detection of the fatigue-related accident have been identified and compared.

RESULTS

Some variables and interactions were identified to have significant impacts on fatigue-related accident detection.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on the results, it can be inferred that the stereotype of certain groups of drivers, crash types, and roadway conditions affects police officers' judgment on fatigue-related accidents.

PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS

This finding can provide useful information for training police officers and build better criteria for fatigue identification.

Analysis of passenger-car crash injury severity in different work zone configurations

Work zone safety remains a priority to the Federal Highway Administration, State Highway Departments, highway engineers, and the traveling public. Work zones create a hospitable environment for crashes; an issue that gained tremendous share of attention in recent years. Therefore, every effort should be sought out to reduce the injury severity of crashes in work zones. In this paper we attempt to investigate factors contributing to the injury severity of passenger-car crashes in different work zone configurations. Considering the discrete ordinal nature of injury severity categories, a Mixed Generalized Ordered Response Probit (MGORP) modeling framework was developed. The model estimation was undertaken by compiling a database consisting of 10 years of crashes that involved at least one passenger car, and occurred in a work zone. Revealing the underlying factors contributing to injury severity levels for different work zone configurations will allow for distinguishing mitigation methods for higher severity outcomes that best suit each of the depicted work zone layouts. This can be accomplished through the implementation of specific safety measures based on the specific configuration of a work zone as a potential crash location. Elasticity analysis suggests that partial control of access, roadways classified as rural, crashes during evening times, crashes during weekends, and curved roadways are key factors that increase the likelihood of severe outcomes. Also, the effects of several covariates were found to vary across the different work zone configurations.

Truck-involved crashes injury severity analysis for different lighting conditions on rural and urban roadways

This paper investigates factors affecting injury severity of crashes involving trucks for different lighting conditions on rural and urban roadways. It uses 2009-2013 Ohio crash data from the Highway Safety Information System. The explanatory factors include the occupant, vehicle, collision, roadway, temporal and environmental characteristics. Six separate mixed logit models were developed considering three lighting conditions (daylight, dark, and dark-lighted) on two area types (rural and urban). A series of log-likelihood ratio tests were conducted to validate that these six separate models by lighting conditions and area types are warranted. The model results suggest major differences in both the combination and the magnitude of impact of variables included in each model. Some variables were significant only in one lighting condition but not in other conditions. Similarly, some variables were found to be significant in one area type but not in other area type. These differences show that the different lighting conditions and area types do in fact have different contributing effects on injury severity in truck-involved crashes, further highlighting the importance of examining crashes based on lighting conditions on rural and urban roadways. Age and gender of occupant (who is the most severely injured in a crash), truck types, AADT, speed, and weather condition were found to be factors that have significantly different levels of impact on injury severity in truck-involved crashes.

An empirical analysis of run-off-road injury severity crashes involving large trucks

In recent years, there has been an increasing interest in understanding the contributory factors to run-off-road (ROR) crashes in the US, especially those where large trucks are involved. Although there have been several efforts to understand large-truck crashes, the relationship between crash factors, crash severity, and ROR crashes is not clearly understood. The intent of this research is to develop statistical models that provide additional insight into the effects that various contributory factors related to the person (driver), vehicle, crash, roadway, and environment have on ROR injury severity. An ordered random parameter probit was estimated to predict the likelihood of three injury severity categories using Oregon crash data: severe, minor, and no injury. The modeling approach accounts for unobserved heterogeneity (i.e., unobserved factors). The results showed that five parameter estimates were found to be random and normally distributed, and varied across ROR crash observations. These were factors related to crashes that occurred between January and April, raised median type, loss of control of a vehicle, the indicator variable of speed not involved, and the indicator variable of two vehicles or more involved in the crashes. In contrast, eight variables were found to be fixed across ROR observations. Looking more closely at the fixed parameter results, large-truck drivers who are not licensed in Oregon have a higher probability of experiencing no injury ROR crash outcomes, and human related factor, fatigue, increases the probability of minor injury. The modeling framework presented in this work offers a flexible methodology to analyze ROR crashes involving large trucks while accounting for unobserved heterogeneity. This information can aid safety planners and the trucking industry in identifying appropriate countermeasures to help mitigate the number and severity of large-truck ROR crashes.

Time series trends of the safety effects of pavement resurfacing

This study evaluated the safety performance of pavement resurfacing projects on urban arterials in Florida using the observational before and after approaches. The safety effects of pavement resurfacing were quantified in the crash modification factors (CMFs) and estimated based on different ranges of heavy vehicle traffic volume and time changes for different severity levels. In order to evaluate the variation of CMFs over time, crash modification functions (CMFunctions) were developed using nonlinear regression and time series models. The results showed that pavement resurfacing projects decrease crash frequency and are found to be more safety effective to reduce severe crashes in general. Moreover, the results of the general relationship between the safety effects and time changes indicated that the CMFs increase over time after the resurfacing treatment. It was also found that pavement resurfacing projects for the urban roadways with higher heavy vehicle volume rate are more safety effective than the roadways with lower heavy vehicle volume rate. Based on the exploration and comparison of the developed CMFucntions, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and exponential functional form of the nonlinear regression models can be utilized to identify the trend of CMFs over time.

Investigation on occupant injury severity in rear-end crashes involving trucks as the front vehicle in Beijing area, China

PURPOSE

Rear-end crashes attribute to a large portion of total crashes in China, which lead to many casualties and property damage, especially when involving commercial vehicles. This paper aims to investigate the critical factors for occupant injury severity in the specific rear-end crash type involving trucks as the front vehicle (FV).

METHODS

This paper investigated crashes occurred from 2011 to 2013 in Beijing area, China and selected 100 qualified cases i.e., rear-end crashes involving trucks as the FV. The crash data were supplemented with interviews from police officers and vehicle inspection. A binary logistic regression model was used to build the relationship between occupant injury severity and corresponding affecting factors. Moreover, a multinomial logistic model was used to predict the likelihood of fatal or severe injury or no injury in a rear-end crash.

RESULTS

The results provided insights on the characteristics of driver, vehicle and environment, and the corresponding influences on the likelihood of a rear-end crash. The binary logistic model showed that drivers' age, weight difference between vehicles, visibility condition and lane number of road significantly increased the likelihood for severe injury of rear-end crash. The multinomial logistic model and the average direct pseudo-elasticity of variables showed that night time, weekdays, drivers from other provinces and passenger vehicles as rear vehicles significantly increased the likelihood of rear drivers being fatal.

CONCLUSION

All the abovementioned significant factors should be improved, such as the conditions of lighting and the layout of lanes on roads. Two of the most common driver factors are drivers' age and drivers' original residence. Young drivers and outsiders have a higher injury severity. Therefore it is imperative to enhance the safety education and management on the young drivers who steer heavy duty truck from other cities to Beijing on weekdays.

Analysis of injury severity of large truck crashes in work zones

Work zones are critical parts of the transportation infrastructure renewal process consisting of rehabilitation of roadways, maintenance, and utility work. Given the specific nature of a work zone (complex arrangements of traffic control devices and signs, narrow lanes, duration) a number of crashes occur with varying severities involving different vehicle sizes. In this paper we attempt to investigate the causal factors contributing to injury severity of large truck crashes in work zones. Considering the discrete nature of injury severity categories, a number of comparable econometric models were developed including multinomial logit (MNL), nested logit (NL), ordered logit (ORL), and generalized ordered logit (GORL) models. The MNL and NL models belong to the class of unordered discrete choice models and do not recognize the intrinsic ordinal nature of the injury severity data. The ORL and GORL models, on the other hand, belong to the ordered response framework that was specifically developed for handling ordinal dependent variables. Past literature did not find conclusive evidence in support of either framework. This study compared these alternate modeling frameworks for analyzing injury severity of crashes involving large trucks in work zones. The model estimation was undertaken by compiling a database of crashes that (1) involved large trucks and (2) occurred in work zones in the past 10 years in Minnesota. Empirical findings indicate that the GORL model provided superior data fit as compared to all the other models. Also, elasticity analysis was undertaken to quantify the magnitude of impact of different factors on work zone safety and the results of this analysis suggest the factors that increase the risk propensity of sustaining severe crashes in a work zone include crashes in the daytime, no control of access, higher speed limits, and crashes occurring on rural principal arterials.