Pathogen population dynamics: the age of the strain

Evidence for recombination in Mycobacterium tuberculosis

Due to its mostly isolated living environment, Mycobacterium tuberculosis is generally believed to be highly clonal, and thus recombination between different strains must be rare and is not critical for the survival of the species. To investigate the roles recombination could have possibly played in the evolution of M. tuberculosis, an analysis was conducted on previously determined genotypes of 36 synonymous single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 3,320 M. tuberculosis isolates. The results confirmed the predominant clonal structure of the M. tuberculosis population. However, recombination between different strains was also suggested. To further resolve the issue, 175 intergenic SNPs and 234 synonymous SNPs were genotyped in 37 selected representative strains. A clear mosaic polymorphic pattern ahead of the MT0105 locus encoding a PPE (Pro-Pro-Glu) protein was obtained, which is most likely a result of recombination hot spot. Given that PPE proteins are thought to be critical in host-pathogen interactions, we hypothesize that recombination has been influential in the history of M. tuberculosis and possibly a major contributor to the diversity observed ahead of the MT0105 locus.

The impact of cross-immunity, mutation and stochastic extinction on pathogen diversity

We examine the dynamics of antigenically diverse infectious agents using a mathematical model describing the transmission dynamics of arbitrary numbers of pathogen strains, interacting via cross-immunity, and in the presence of mutations generating new strains and stochastic extinctions of existing ones. Equilibrium dynamics fall into three classes depending on cross-immunity, transmissibility and host population size: systems where global extinction is likely, stable single-strain persistence, and multiple-strain persistence with stable diversity. Where multi-strain dynamics are stable, a diversity threshold region separates a low-prevalence, low-diversity region of parameter space from a high-diversity, high-prevalence region. The location of the threshold region is determined by the reproduction number of the pathogen and the intensity of cross-immunity, with the sharpness of the transition being determined by the manner in which immunity accrues with repeated infections. Host population size and cross-immunity are found to be the most decisive factors in determining pathogen diversity. While the model framework developed is simplified, we show that it can capture essential aspects of the complex evolutionary dynamics of pathogens such as influenza.

Linkage disequilibrium between minisatellite loci supports clonal evolution of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in a high tuberculosis incidence area

Deciphering the structure of pathogen populations is instrumental for the understanding of the epidemiology and history of infectious diseases and for their control. Although Mycobacterium tuberculosis is the most widespread infectious agent in humans, its actual population structure has remained hypothetical until now because: (i) its structural genes are poorly polymorphic; (ii) adequate samples and appropriate statistics for population genetic analysis have not been considered. To investigate this structure, we analysed the statistical associations (linkage disequilibrium) between 12 independent M. tuberculosis minisatellite-like loci by high-throughput genotyping within a model population of 209 isolates representative of the genetic diversity in an area with a very high incidence of tuberculosis. These loci contain variable number tandem repeats (VNTRs) of genetic elements named mycobacterial interspersed repetitive units (MIRUs). Highly significant linkage disequilibrium was detected among the MIRU-VNTR loci in this model. This linkage disequilibrium was also evident when the MIRU-VNTR types were compared with the IS6110 restriction fragment length polymorphism types. These results support a predominant clonal evolution of M. tuberculosis.

On the determinants of population structure in antigenically diverse pathogens

Many pathogens exhibit antigenic diversity and elicit strain-specific immune responses. This potential for cross-immunity structure in the host resource motivates the development of mathematical models, stressing competition for susceptible hosts in driving pathogen population dynamics and genetics. Here we establish that certain model formulations exhibit characteristics of prototype pattern-forming systems, with pathogen population structure emerging as three possible patterns: (i) incidence is steady and homogeneous; (ii) incidence is steady but heterogeneous; and (iii) incidence shows oscillatory dynamics, with travelling waves in strain-space. Results are robust to strain number, but sensitive to the mechanism of cumulative immunity.