Effect of the US National HIV/AIDS Strategy targets for improved HIV care engagement: a modelling study

HIV infection impairs the host response to Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection by altering surfactant protein D function in the human lung alveolar mucosa

Tuberculosis is the leading cause of death for people living with HIV (PLWH). We hypothesized that altered functions of innate immune components in the human alveolar lining fluid of PLWH (HIV-ALF) drive susceptibility to Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M.tb) infection. Our results indicate a significant increase in oxidation of innate proteins and chemokine levels and significantly lower levels and function of complement components and Th1/Th2/Th17 cytokines in HIV-ALF versus control-ALF (non-HIV-infected people). We further found a deficiency of surfactant protein D (SP-D) and reduced binding of SP-D to M.tb that had been exposed to HIV-ALF. Primary human macrophages infected with M.tb exposed to HIV-ALF were significantly less capable of controlling the infection, which was reversed by SP-D replenishment in HIV-ALF. Thus, based on the limited number of participants in this study, our data suggest that PLWH without antiretroviral therapy (ART) have declining host innate defense function in their lung mucosa, thereby favoring M.tb and potentially other pulmonary infections.

National plans and awareness campaigns as priorities for achieving global brain health

Neurological conditions are the leading cause of death and disability combined. This public health crisis has become a global priority with the introduction of WHO's Intersectoral Global Action Plan on Epilepsy and Other Neurological Disorders 2022-2031 (IGAP). 18 months after this plan was adopted, global neurology stakeholders, including representatives of the OneNeurology Partnership (a consortium uniting global neurology organisations), take stock and advocate for urgent acceleration of IGAP implementation. Drawing on lessons from relevant global health contexts, this Health Policy identifies two priority IGAP targets to expedite national delivery of the entire 10-year plan: namely, to update national policies and plans, and to create awareness campaigns and advocacy programmes for neurological conditions and brain health. To ensure rapid attainment of the identified priority targets, six strategic drivers are proposed: universal community awareness, integrated neurology approaches, intersectoral governance, regionally coordinated IGAP domestication, lived experience-informed policy making, and neurological mainstreaming (advocating to embed brain health into broader policy agendas). Contextualised with globally emerging IGAP-directed efforts and key considerations for intersectoral policy design, this novel framework provides actionable recommendations for policy makers and IGAP implementation partners. Timely, synergistic pursuit of the six drivers might aid WHO member states in cultivating public awareness and policy structures required for successful intersectoral roll-out of IGAP by 2031, paving the way towards brain health for all.

Telemedicine Use Among People With HIV in 2021: The Hybrid-Care Environment

BACKGROUND

Telemedicine use for the care of people with HIV (PWH) significantly expanded during the COVID-19 pandemic. During 2021, vaccine uptake increased and patients were encouraged to resume in-person care, resulting in a mixture of in-person and telemedicine visits. We studied how different patient populations used telemedicine in this hybrid-care environment.

METHODS

Using observational data from patients enrolled in the Johns Hopkins HIV Clinical Cohort, we analyzed all in-person and telemedicine HIV primary care visits completed in an HIV clinic from January 1st, 2021, to December 31st, 2021. We used log-binomial regression to investigate the association between patient characteristics and the probability of completing a telemedicine versus in-person visit and the probability of completing a video versus telephone visit.

RESULTS

A total of 5518 visits were completed by 1884 patients; 4282 (77.6%) visits were in-person, 800 (14.5%) by phone, and 436 (7.9%) by video. The relative risk (RR) of completing telemedicine vs. in-person visits was 0.65 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.47, 0.91) for patients age 65 years or older vs. age 20-39 years; 0.84 (95% CI: 0.72, 0.98) for male patients vs. female patients; 0.81 (95% CI: 0.66, 0.99) for Black vs. White patients; 0.62 (95% CI: 0.49, 0.79) for patients in the highest vs. lowest quartile of Area Deprivation Index; and 1.52 (95% CI: 1.26, 1.84) for patients >15 miles vs. <5 miles from clinic.

CONCLUSIONS

In the second year of the pandemic, overall in-person care was used more than telemedicine and significant differences persist across subgroups in telemedicine uptake.

A Growing Number of Men Who Have Sex With Men Aging With HIV (20212031): A Comparison of Two Microsimulation Models

BACKGROUND

Men who have sex with men (MSM) on antiretroviral therapy (ART) are at risk for multimorbidity as life expectancy increases. Simulation models can project population sizes and age distributions to assist with health policy planning.

METHODS

We populated the CEPAC-US model with CDC data to project the HIV epidemic among MSM in the United States. The PEARL model was predominantly informed by NA-ACCORD data (20092017). We compared projected population sizes and age distributions of MSM receiving ART (20212031) and investigated how parameters and assumptions affected results.

RESULTS

We projected an aging and increasing population of MSM on ART: CEPAC-US, mean age 48.6 (SD 13.7) years in 2021 versus 53.9 (SD 15.0) years in 2031; PEARL, 46.7 (SD 13.2) years versus 49.2 (SD 14.6) years. We projected 548 800 MSM on ART (147 020 65 years) in 2031 (CEPAC-US) and 599 410 (113 400 65 years) (PEARL). Compared with PEARL, CEPAC-US projected a smaller population of MSM on ART by 2031 and a slower increase in population size, driven by higher estimates of disengagement in care and mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings from two structurally distinct microsimulation models suggest that the MSM population receiving ART in the United States will increase and age over the next decade. Subgroup-specific data regarding engagement in care and mortality can improve projections and inform health care policy planning.

Agent-based model projections for reducing HIV infection among MSM: Prevention and care pathways to end the HIV epidemic in Chicago, Illinois

Our objective is to improve local decision-making for strategies to end the HIV epidemic using the newly developed Levers of HIV agent-based model (ABM). Agent-based models use computer simulations that incorporate heterogeneity in individual behaviors and interactions, allow emergence of systemic behaviors, and extrapolate into the future. The Levers of HIV model (LHM) uses Chicago neighborhood demographics, data on sex-risk behaviors and sexual networks, and data on the prevention and care cascades, to model local dynamics. It models the impact of changes in local preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and antiretroviral treatment (ART) (ie, levers) for meeting Illinois' goal of "Getting to Zero" (GTZ) -reducing by 90% new HIV infections among men who have sex with men (MSM) by 2030. We simulate a 15-year period (2016-2030) for 2304 distinct scenarios based on 6 levers related to HIV treatment and prevention: (1) linkage to PrEP for those testing negative, (2) linkage to ART for those living with HIV, (3) adherence to PrEP, (4) viral suppression by means of ART, (5) PrEP retention, and (6) ART retention. Using tree-based methods, we identify the best scenarios at achieving a 90% HIV infection reduction by 2030. The optimal scenario consisted of the highest levels of ART retention and PrEP adherence, next to highest levels of PrEP retention, and moderate levels of PrEP linkage, achieved 90% reduction by 2030 in 58% of simulations. We used Bayesian posterior predictive distributions based on our simulated results to determine the likelihood of attaining 90% HIV infection reduction using the most recent Chicago Department of Public Health surveillance data and found that projections of the current rate of decline (2016-2019) would not achieve the 90% (p = 0.0006) reduction target for 2030. Our results suggest that increases are needed at all steps of the PrEP cascade, combined with increases in retention in HIV care, to approach 90% reduction in new HIV diagnoses by 2030. These findings show how simulation modeling with local data can guide policy makers to identify and invest in efficient care models to achieve long-term local goals of ending the HIV epidemic.

Telemedicine and visit completion among people with HIV during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic compared with prepandemic

OBJECTIVES

Telemedicine became the primary mode of delivering care during the COVID-19 pandemic. We describe the impact of telemedicine on access to care for people with HIV (PWH) by comparing the proportion of PWH engaged in care prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

DESIGN AND METHODS

We conducted an observational analysis of patients enrolled in the Johns Hopkins HIV Clinical Cohort, a single-center cohort of patients at an urban HIV subspecialty clinic affiliated with an academic center. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the clinic transitioned from in-person to mostly telemedicine visits. We compared patients receiving care in two time periods. The prepandemic period included 2010 people with at least one visit scheduled between 1 September 2019 and 15 March 2020. The pandemic period included 1929 people with at least one visit scheduled between 16 March 2020 and 30 September 2020. We determined the proportion of patients completing at least one of their scheduled visits during each period.

RESULTS

Visit completion increased significantly from 88% prepandemic to 91% during the pandemic (P = 0.008). Visit completion improved significantly for patients age 20-39 (82 to 92%, P < 0.001), women (86 to 93%, P < 0.001), Black patients (88 to 91%, P = 0.002) and patients with detectable viremia (77 to 85%, P = 0.06) during the pandemic. Only 29% of people who completed at least one telemedicine visit during the pandemic did so as a video (versus telephone) visit.

CONCLUSION

During the pandemic when care was widely delivered via telemedicine, visit completion improved among groups with lower prepandemic engagement but most were limited to telephone visits.

What Will It Take to End HIV in the United States? : A Comprehensive, Local-Level Modeling Study

BACKGROUND

The Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) initiative aims to reduce incident HIV infections by 90% over a span of 10 years. The intensity of interventions needed to achieve this for local epidemics is unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the effect of HIV interventions at the city level.

DESIGN

A compartmental model of city-level HIV transmission stratified by age, race, sex, and HIV risk factor was developed and calibrated.

SETTING

32 priority metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs).

PATIENTS

Simulated populations in each MSA.

INTERVENTION

Combinations of HIV testing and preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) coverage among those at risk for HIV, plus viral suppression in persons with diagnosed HIV infection.

MEASUREMENTS

The primary outcome was the projected reduction in incident cases from 2020 to 2030.

RESULTS

Absent intervention, HIV incidence was projected to decrease by 19% across all 32 MSAs. Modest increases in testing (1.25-fold per year), PrEP coverage (5 percentage points), and viral suppression (10 percentage points) across the population could achieve reductions of 34% to 67% by 2030. Twenty-five percent PrEP coverage, testing twice a year on average, and 90% viral suppression among young Black and Hispanic men who have sex with men (MSM) achieved similar reductions (13% to 68%). Including all MSM and persons who inject drugs could reduce incidence by 48% to 90%. Thirteen of 32 MSAs could achieve greater than 90% reductions in HIV incidence with large-scale interventions that include heterosexuals. A web application with location-specific results is publicly available (www.jheem.org).

LIMITATION

The COVID-19 pandemic was not represented.

CONCLUSION

Large reductions in HIV incidence are achievable with substantial investment, but the EHE goals will be difficult to achieve in most locations. An interactive model that can help policymakers maximize the effect in their local environments is presented.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Institutes of Health.

Predictors of Poor Adherence to CART and Treatment Failure at Second-Line Regimens Among Adults in Public Hospitals of Amhara Region, North-Western Ethiopia: A Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Globally, HIV/AIDS has challenged the lives of 36.3 million people and resulted in 17 million orphans. The disease has neither a vaccine nor a cure and the only option currently is highly active antiretroviral therapy. This research was conducted to identify the predictors of poor adherence to CART and treatment failure at second-line regimen among adults living with HIV/AIDS in public hospitals of Amhara region, north-western Ethiopia.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study design was conducted on 700 HIV-positive people who were receiving a second-line CART regimen. Participants on second-line regimens who followed their treatment between 2016 and 2019 were considered. Data were extracted from participants' clinical charts from June 18-July 7, 2020.

RESULTS

A multivariate regression analysis indicates that age of patients (OR = 1.025, 95% CI: 1.001-1.321; p = 0.005), follow-up visits (OR = 0.979, 95% CI: 0.873-0.998; p < 0.001), CD4 cell count change (OR = 0.9860; 95% CI: 0.835-0.998; p < 0.01), marital status (OR = 0.973, 95% CI: 0.789- 0.997; p = 0.006), female HIV-infected patients (OR = 0.990; 95% CI: 0.789-0.999; p <0.001), rural patients (OR = 1.151; 95% CI 1.065-1.398; p = 0.004), non-educated adult patients (OR = 1.026, 95% CI: 1.002-1.198; p = 0.003), existence of social violence (OR = 0.012, 95% CI: 0.008-0.134; p< 0.01), patients with opportunistic diseases (OR = 1.0345, 95% CI 1.002-1.142; p = 0.001), CD4 cell count (OR = 0.901, 95% CI: 0.843-0.995; p = 0.025) and malnutrition (OR = 0.883, 95% CI; 0.762-0.954; p = 0.001) significantly affected the two response variables.

CONCLUSION

Several variables affected both poor adherence to HAART and treatment failure at second-line regimens in the current investigation. Due attention should be given to aged patients, rural residents, non-educated patients, and patients with other morbidities to be successful with second-line treatment regimens.

Recruitment of Youth Living With HIV to Optimize Adherence and Virologic Suppression: Testing the Design of Technology-Based Community Health Nursing to Improve Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) Clinical Trials

Background

Despite advances in HIV diagnosis and treatment, adolescents and young adults 12-25 years old have high HIV incidence, poor engagement and retention in treatment, and low rates of adherence and virologic suppression when compared to their older counterparts. HIV has emerged as a chronic disease for which antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence is critical for virologic suppression and long-term survival. Virologic suppression has been elusive for many youth with HIV (YHIV). Novel strategies designed to facilitate health care systems’ support for YHIV between medical visits are essential for improving ART adherence, virologic suppression, and long-term survival.

Objective

The aim of this study is to compare the effectiveness of a technology-enhanced community health nursing intervention (TECH2CHECK) to a standard of care (SOC) control group for improving ART adherence and subsequent viral suppression using a randomized trial design. The objectives are to assess the feasibility, acceptability, and cost-effectiveness of TECH2CHECK as compared to SOC for management of HIV in the outpatient setting and to examine the sustainability of self-care behavior, adherence, and virologic suppression among youth following the intervention period.

Methods

We will recruit 120 adherence-challenged YHIV being followed at clinics specializing in HIV care in the Baltimore-Washington metropolitan area and in Jacksonville. Eligible participants complete an audio, computer-assisted self-interview and are randomized to either TECH2CHECK intervention or the SOC (60 participants in each arm). The primary outcome of interest is virologic suppression (viral load <20 copies/mL) and improved treatment adherence. Participants in the intervention arm receive community health nursing visits at 2 weeks, 6 weeks, 10 weeks, 14 weeks, and 26 weeks. The intervention arm also receives SMS messaging comprising daily adherence and appointment reminders and positive reinforcement for medication adherence daily for 2 weeks, on alternate days for 2 weeks, thrice weekly for 1 month, weekly for 3 months, and every 2 weeks for the rest of the study duration. The control group receives appointment reminders and SOC per clinic protocol. Exploratory analysis will be conducted to determine differences in medication adherence and virologic suppression in the 2 arms and to assess cost-effectiveness and study feasibility and acceptability.

Results

In the first 23 months of the study (July 2018-April 2020), 56 (55%) of 102 eligible patients were enrolled and randomized. At present, participating youths are primarily African American (53/56, 95%), male (37/56, 66%), and ≥18 years old (53/56, 95%). Follow-up study visits, as required per the protocol, have been completed by 77% (43/56), 94% (45/48), 95% (37/39), 96% (24/25), and 100% (10/10) of participants at the 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, 12-month, and 18-month follow-ups, respectively.

Conclusions

Preliminary accrual and retention data suggest that TECH2CHECK is feasible and acceptable.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03600103 https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03600103

International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/23480

Modeling an integrated HIV prevention and care continuum to achieve the Ending the HIV Epidemic goals

OBJECTIVE

We sought to evaluate, which combinations of HIV prevention and care activities would have the greatest impact towards reaching the US Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) plan goals of HIV incidence reduction.

DESIGN

A stochastic network-based HIV transmission model for men who have sex with men (MSM), calibrated to surveillance estimates in the Atlanta area, a focal EHE jurisdiction.

METHODS

Model scenarios varied HIV screening rates under different assumptions of how HIV-negative MSM would be linked to PrEP initiation, and rates of HIV care linkage and retention for those screening positive.

RESULTS

A ten-fold relative increase in HIV screening rates (to approximately biannual screening for black and Hispanic MSM and quarterly for white MSM) would lead to 43% of infections averted if integrated with PrEP initiation. Improvements focused only on black MSM would achieve nearly the same outcome (37% of infections averted). Improvements to HIV care retention would avert 41% of infections if retention rates were improved ten-fold. If both screening and retention were jointly improved ten-fold, up to 74% of cumulative infections would be averted. Under this scenario, it would take 4 years to meet the 75% EHE goal and 12 years to meet the 90% goal for Atlanta MSM.

CONCLUSION

Reaching the EHE 75% incidence reduction goals by their target dates will require immediate and substantial improvements in HIV screening, PrEP, and ART care retention. Meeting these EHE goals in target jurisdictions like Atlanta will be possible only by addressing the HIV service needs of black MSM.

Digitized HIV/AIDS Treatment Adherence Interventions: A Review of Recent SMS/Texting Mobile Health Applications and Implications for Theory and Practice

BACKGROUND

Mobile health technologies (mHealth) are efficacious along the continuum of HIV/AIDS-from prevention of HIV transmission to those at the highest risk of acquiring infection, to adherence to HIV medical care, for those living with the disease-decreasing the public health burden of the disease. HIV/AIDS is a complex condition, as certain population subgroups are disproportionately affected. Furthermore, barriers experienced at the individual level (e.g., HIV stigma) and at the systems level (i.e., access to care) contribute to these disparities. Low cost, high penetration rates and ease of use mean mHealth SMS/texting solutions hold the biggest promise for curbing the global HIV/AIDS epidemic; yet these technologies have their own challenges. Our primary objective was to assess interventions that promote adherence, which are delivered via SMS/texting, and important design and ethical considerations of these technologies. Specifically, we evaluated the underlying frameworks underpinning intervention design, strategies to safeguard privacy and confidentiality, and measures taken to ensure equity and equitable access across different subgroups of persons living with HIV (PLWH). We also synthesized study outcomes, barriers/facilitators to adherence, and barriers/facilitators of technology to support HIV adherence.

METHODS

A scoping review methodology was utilized, searching the Medline database for recently published articles (January 2017 to June 2019). Two reviewers independently screened titles and abstracts for relevancy using the following eligibility criteria: (a) original research or protocol; (b) inclusion of persons living with HIV; (c) intervention delivery via SMS/text messaging; and, (d) intervention included HIV care adherence.

RESULTS

Seven (7) of the 134 articles met full criteria. The great majority (n = 6) did not report whether the interventions were developed under established behavioral change models or frameworks. Strategies to address privacy, confidentiality and equity/equitable access were taken in four (n = 4) studies.

CONCLUSION

Our mixed methods review determined that privacy and confidentiality remain a concern for PLWH. Provisions to accommodate literacy, infrastructure, technology and other challenges (e.g., access to smartphones and Wifi) are important ethical considerations that guarantee equity and equitable access. Further investigation will determine the contexts within which theoretical models and frameworks remain relevant in the rapidly evolving field of digitized interventions that support adherence.

Simulating the End of AIDS in New York: Using Participatory Dynamic Modeling to Improve Implementation of the Ending the Epidemic Initiative

OBJECTIVES

In 2014, the governor of New York announced the Ending the Epidemic (ETE) plan to reduce annual new HIV infections from 3000 to 750, achieve a first-ever decrease in HIV prevalence, and reduce AIDS progression by the end of 2020. The state health department undertook participatory simulation modeling to develop a baseline for comparing epidemic trends and feedback on ETE strategies.

METHODS

A dynamic compartmental model projected the individual and combined effects of 3 ETE initiatives: enhanced linkage to and retention in HIV treatment, increased preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among men who have sex with men, and expanded housing assistance. Data inputs for model calibration and low-, medium-, and high-implementation scenarios (stakeholders' rollout predictions, and lower and upper bounds) came from surveillance and program data through 2014, the literature, and expert judgment.

RESULTS

Without ETE (baseline scenario), new HIV infections would decline but remain >750, and HIV prevalence would continue to increase by 2020. Concurrently implementing the 3 programs would lower annual new HIV infections by 16.0%, 28.1%, and 45.7% compared with baseline in the low-, medium-, and high-implementation scenarios, respectively. In all concurrent implementation scenarios, although annual new HIV infections would remain >750, there would be fewer new HIV infections than deaths, yielding the first-ever decrease in HIV prevalence. PrEP and enhanced linkage and retention would confer the largest population-level changes.

CONCLUSIONS

New York State will achieve 1 ETE benchmark under the most realistic (medium) implementation scenario. Findings facilitated framing of ETE goals and underscored the need to prioritize men who have sex with men and maintain ETE's multipronged approach, including other programs not modeled here.

A Multilingual, Culturally Competent Mobile Health Intervention to Improve Treatment Adherence Among Women Living With HIV: Protocol for a Randomized Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND

Adherence to HIV care is complex, as barriers to care are multidimensional, particularly for ethnic minority women. Mobile health (mHealth) solutions are supportive in improving HIV health care outcomes. In the United States, however, mHealth interventions are not widely implemented in public HIV clinics and have not been customized for women. There is an unmet need for culturally and linguistically appropriate mHealth interventions that address the health care needs of minority women living with HIV.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to describe a protocol investigating the feasibility of an mHealth intervention for treatment adherence among women living with HIV. This is a two-phase, mixed methods, pilot randomized controlled trial that begins with qualitative patient interviews to inform the system design. Participants will be block randomized by language (English, Spanish, and Haitian Creole) to 1 of 2 study arms.

METHODS

Women (age ≥18 years) who were followed up at the women's HIV clinic of an academic medical center, with a recent history of nonadherence to HIV care (missed appointments, unsuppressed viral load, or not taking medications as prescribed), will be enrolled. The experimental arm will receive the intervention, which includes health reminders and psychoeducational messaging, plus clinical standard of care reminders. The psychoeducational messaging will target patient-level barriers of HIV stigma and medical mistrust and resilience as a patient-level strength. The control arm will receive standard of care reminders only (ie, mailed appointments and automated telephone calls). All aspects of the study and intervention will be offered in the participants' preferred language. The primary outcome is the feasibility and acceptability of the study. The secondary outcomes are changes in self-reported medication adherence, depression symptoms, HIV stigma, medical mistrust, resilience, and clinic attendance and viral suppression extracted from the participants' medical records. Data will be assessed at baseline (T0) and 2 subsequent clinic visits-approximately 3 to 4 months from the baseline (time 1; T1) and 6 to 9 months from the baseline (time 2; T2). Qualitative data will be transcribed and analyzed iteratively. Bivariate analyses will compare data by the study group (chi-square, odds ratios, and t tests). Exploratory analyses will be conducted for each outcome variable-T1 and T2 values will be compared with values at T0 by the study group.

RESULTS

As of March 2020, baseline quantitative data were collected on 54 participants (28 English speakers, 14 Spanish speakers, and 12 Haitian Creole speakers). The first 3 focus groups (1 in each of the 3 languages) were completed, with a total of 20 participants. The findings are currently being integrated into the beta version of the mHealth texting system.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of this novel HIV adherence intervention may shed light on the barriers and facilitators of HIV health care and the mechanisms of an mHealth intervention that is customized for ethnic minority women living with HIV.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03738410; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03738410.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/17656.

Effects of Reaching National Goals on HIV Incidence, by Race and Ethnicity, in the United States

CONTEXT

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) incidence and prevalence in the United States are characterized by significant disparities by race/ethnicity. National HIV care goals, such as boosting to 90% the proportion of persons whose HIV is diagnosed and increasing to 80% the proportion of persons living with diagnosed HIV who are virally suppressed, will likely reduce HIV incidence, but their effects on HIV-related disparities are uncertain.

OBJECTIVE

We sought to understand by race/ethnicity how current HIV care varies, the level of effort required to achieve national HIV care goals, and the effects of reaching those goals on HIV incidence and disparities.

DESIGN

Using a dynamic model of HIV transmission, we identified 2016 progress along the HIV care continuum among blacks, Hispanics, and whites/others compared with national 2020 goals. We examined disparities over time.

SETTING

United States.

PARTICIPANTS

Beginning in 2006, our dynamic compartmental model simulated the sexually active US population 13 to 64 years of age, which was stratified into 195 subpopulations by transmission group, sex, race/ethnicity, age, male circumcision status, and HIV risk level.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

We compared HIV cumulative incidence from 2016 to 2020 when goals were reached compared with base case assumptions about progression along the HIV care continuum.

RESULTS

The 2016 proportion of persons with diagnosed HIV who were on treatment and virally suppressed was 50% among blacks, 56% among Hispanics, and 61% among whites/others, compared with a national goal of 80%. When diagnosis, linkage, and viral suppression goals were reached in 2020, cumulative HIV incidence fell by 32% (uncertainty range: 18%-37%) for blacks, 25% (22%-31%) for Hispanics, and 25% (21%-28%) for whites/others. Disparity measures changed little.

CONCLUSIONS

Achieving national HIV care goals will require different levels of effort by race/ethnicity but likely will result in substantial declines in cumulative HIV incidence. HIV-related disparities in incidence and prevalence may be difficult to resolve.

Impact of Improved HIV Care and Treatment on PrEP Effectiveness in the United States, 2016-2020

BACKGROUND

The effect of improving diagnosis, care, and treatment of persons living with HIV (PLWH) on pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) effectiveness in the United States has not been well established.

METHODS

We used a dynamic, compartmental model that simulates the sexually active US population. We investigated the change in cumulative HIV incidence from 2016 to 2020 for 3 HIV care-continuum levels and the marginal benefit of PrEP compared with each. We also explored the marginal benefit of PrEP for individual risk groups, and as PrEP adherence, coverage and dropout rates varied.

RESULTS

Delivering PrEP in 2016 to persons at high risk of acquiring HIV resulted in an 18.1% reduction in new HIV infections from 2016 to 2020 under current care-continuum levels. Achieving HIV national goals of 90% of PLWH with diagnosed infection, 85% of newly diagnosed PLWH linked to care at diagnosis, and 80% of diagnosed PLWH virally suppressed reduced cumulative incidence by 34.4%. Delivery of PrEP in addition to this scenario resulted in a marginal benefit of 11.1% additional infections prevented. When national goals were reached, PrEP prevented an additional 15.2% cases among men who have sex with men, 3.9% among heterosexuals, and 3.8% among persons who inject drugs.

CONCLUSIONS

The marginal benefit of PrEP was larger when current HIV-care-continuum percentages were maintained but continued to be substantial even when national care goals were met. The high-risk men who have sex with men population was the chief beneficiary of PrEP.

Barriers and Facilitators for Antiretroviral Treatment Adherence Among HIV-Positive African American and Latino Men Who Have Sex With Men

Some Black/African American and Hispanic/Latino men who have sex with men (MSM) living with HIV do not take antiretroviral therapy (ART). We conducted semistructured interviews with 84 adult, Black/African American and Hispanic/Latino MSM with HIV to understand ART barriers and facilitators. We used chi-square statistics to identify factors associated with ART use (p ≤ .05), and selected illustrative quotes. Over half (51.2%) said they followed their doctor's instructions; however, only 27.4% reported consistently taking ART. Some men delayed ART until overcoming diagnosis denial or becoming very sick. ART use was facilitated by encouragement from others, treatment plans, side effect management, lab test improvements, pill-taking reminders, and convenient care facilities that provide "one-stop shop" services. Men were more likely to take ART when having providers who communicated effectively and were perceived to treat them with respect. Healthcare personnel can use our findings to strengthen services for MSM of color.

Undiagnosed HIV infections among gay and bisexual men increasingly contribute to new infections in Australia

Introduction

We determined the contribution of undiagnosed HIV to new infections among gay and bisexual men (GBM) over a 12‐year period in Australia where there has been increasing focus on improving testing and HIV treatment coverage.

Methods

We generated annual estimates for each step of the HIV cascade and the number of new HIV infections for GBM in Australia over 2004 to 2015 using relevant national data. Using Bayesian melding we then fitted a quantitative model to the cascade and incidence estimates to infer relative transmission coefficients associated with being undiagnosed, diagnosed and not on ART, on ART with unsuppressed virus, or on ART with suppressed virus.

Results

Between 2004 and 2015, we estimated the percentage of GBM with HIV in Australia who were unaware of their status to have decreased from 14.5% to 7.5%. During the same period, there was a substantial increase in the number and proportion of GBM living with HIV on treatment and with suppressed virus, with the number of virally suppressed GBM increasing from around 3900 (30.2% of all GBM living with HIV) in 2004 to around 14,000 (73.7% of all GBM living with HIV) in 2015. Despite the increase in viral suppression, the annual number of new infections rose from around 660 to around 760 over this period. Our results have a wide range due to the uncertainty in the cascade estimates and transmission coefficients. Nevertheless, undiagnosed GBM increasingly appear to contribute to new infections. The proportion of new infections attributable to undiagnosed GBM almost doubled from 33% in 2004 to 59% in 2015. Only a small proportion (<7%) originated from GBM with suppressed virus.

Discussion

Our study suggests that an increase in HIV treatment coverage in Australia has reduced the overall risk of HIV transmission from people living with HIV. However, the proportion of infections and the rate of transmission from undiagnosed GBM has increased substantially. These findings highlight the importance of HIV testing and intensified prevention for Australian GBM at high risk of HIV.

Improvements in the HIV care continuum needed to meaningfully reduce HIV incidence among men who have sex with men in Baltimore, US: a modelling study for HPTN 078

INTRODUCTION

HIV prevalence is high among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Baltimore, Maryland, United States, and the levels of viral suppression among HIV-positive MSM are relatively low. The HIV Prevention Trials Network 078 trial seeks to increase the levels of viral suppression among US MSM by increasing the rates of diagnosis and linkage to care and treatment. We estimated the increases in viral suppression needed to reach different HIV incidence reduction targets, and the impact of meeting diagnosis and treatment targets.

METHODS

We used a mathematical model of HIV transmission among MSM from Baltimore, US, parameterised with behavioural data and fitted to HIV prevalence and care continuum data for Baltimore wherever possible, to project increases in viral suppression needed to reduce the HIV incidence rate among Baltimore MSM by 10, 20, 30 or 50% after 2, 5 and 10 years. We also projected HIV incidence reductions achieved if US national targets - 90% of people living with HIV (PLHIV) know their HIV serostatus, 90% of those diagnosed are retained in HIV medical care and 80% of those diagnosed are virally suppressed - or UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets (90% of PLHIV know their status, 90% of those diagnosed receive antiretroviral therapy (ART), 90% of those receiving ART are virally suppressed) are each met by 2020.

RESULTS

To reduce the HIV incidence rate by 20% and 50% after five years (compared with the base-case at the same time point), the proportion of all HIV-positive MSM who are virally suppressed must increase above 2015 levels by a median 13 percentage points (95% uncertainty interval 9 to 16 percentage points) from median 49% to 60%, and 27 percentage points (22 to 35) from 49% to 75% respectively. Meeting all three US or 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets results in a 48% (31% to 63%) and 51% (38% to 65%) HIV incidence rate reduction in 2020 respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Substantial improvements in levels of viral suppression will be needed to achieve significant incidence reductions among MSM in Baltimore, and to meet 2020 US and UNAIDS targets. Future modelling studies should additionally consider the impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis for MSM.

Data-Driven Goals for Curbing the U.S. HIV Epidemic by 2030

Progress in reducing HIV infections has been suboptimal despite availability of effective prevention and treatment interventions and national strategies to bring them to scale. As part of a community-driven process, we expanded previous epidemiologic models using updated surveillance data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to estimate quantitative parameters for ambitious but attainable national HIV prevention goals. We estimated new HIV infections could be reduced by up to 67% and prevalence could begin to decline by 2030 if 95% targets for diagnosis, care retention, and viral suppression are met by 2025 and an additional 20% of transmissions are averted through targeted interventions such as pre-exposure prophylaxis. Notably, this would require the percentage of diagnosed persons retained in HIV care to increase by more than 35 percentage points, which would necessitate innovative models and a substantial expansion of supportive services. Although the HIV incidence reduction goal of 90% as unveiled in the 2019 State of the Union Address is likely unachievable with the current intervention toolkit, it is possible to begin to substantially reduce HIV prevalence in the next decade with sufficient investments and innovation.

Retention in HIV Care Among Participants in the Patient-Centered HIV Care Model: A Collaboration Between Community-Based Pharmacists and Primary Medical Providers

Poor retention in HIV care is associated with higher morbidity and mortality and greater risk of HIV transmission. The Patient-Centered HIV Care Model (PCHCM) integrated community-based pharmacists with medical providers. The model required sharing of patient clinical information and collaborative therapy-related action planning. The proportion of persons retained in care (≥1 medical visit in each 6-month period of a 12-month measurement period with ≥60 days between visits), pre- and post-PCHCM implementation, was modeled using log binomial regression. Factors associated with post-implementation retention were determined using multi-variable regression. Of 765 enrolled persons, the plurality were male (n = 555) and non-Hispanic black (n = 331), with a median age of 48 years (interquartile range = 38-55); 680 and 625 persons were included in the pre- and post-implementation analyses, respectively. Overall, retention improved 12.9% (60.7-68.5%, p = 0.002). The largest improvement was seen among non-Hispanic black persons, 22.6% increase (59.7-73.2%, p < 0.001). Persons who were non-Hispanic black [adjusted risk ratio (ARR) 1.27, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.08-1.48] received one or more pharmacist-clinic developed action plan (ARR 1.51, 95% CI 1.18-1.93), had three or more pharmacist encounters (ARR 1.17, 95% CI 1.05-1.30), were more likely to be retained post-implementation. In the final multi-variable models, only race/ethnicity [non-Hispanic black (ARR 1.27, 95% CI 1.09-1.48) and "other or unknown" race/ethnicity (ARR 1.36, 95% CI 1.14-1.63)] showed an association with post-implementation retention. PCHCM demonstrated how collaborations between community-based pharmacists and primary medical providers can improve retention in HIV care. This care model may be particularly useful for non-Hispanic black persons who often are less likely to be retained in care.

Economic and epidemiologic impact of guidelines for early ART initiation irrespective of CD4 count in Spain

INTRODUCTION

Emerging data suggest that early antiretroviral therapy (ART) could reduce serious AIDS and non-AIDS events and deaths but could also increase costs. In January 2016, the Spanish guidelines were updated to recommend ART at any CD4 count. However, the epidemiologic and economic impacts of early ART initiation in Spain remain unclear.

METHODS

The Johns Hopkins HIV Economic-Epidemiologic Mathematical Model (JHEEM) was utilized to estimate costs, transmissions, and outcomes in Spain over 20 years. We compared implementation of guidelines for early ART initiation to a counterfactual scenario deferring ART until CD4-counts fall below 350 cells/mm3. We additionally studied the impact of early ART initiation in combination with improvements to HIV screening, care linkage and engagement.

RESULTS

Early ART initiation (irrespective of CD4-count) is expected to avert 20,100 [95% Uncertainty Range (UR) 11,100-83,000] new HIV cases over the next two decades compared to delayed ART (28% reduction), at an incremental health system cost of €1.05 billion [€0.66 - €1.63] billion, and an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of €29,700 [€13,700 - €41,200] per QALY gained. Projected ICERs declined further over longer time horizon; e.g., an ICER of €12,691 over 30 years. Furthermore, the impact of early ART initiation was potentiated by improved HIV screening among high-risk individuals, averting an estimated 41,600 [23,200-172,200] HIV infections (a 58% decline) compared to delayed ART.

CONCLUSIONS

Recommendations for ART initiation irrespective of CD4-counts are cost-effective and could avert > 30% of new cases in Spain. Improving HIV diagnosis can amplify this impact.

Retention in HIV care during the 3 years following release from incarceration: A cohort study

BACKGROUND

Sustained retention in HIV care (RIC) and viral suppression (VS) are central to US national HIV prevention strategies, but have not been comprehensively assessed in criminal justice (CJ) populations with known health disparities. The purpose of this study is to identify predictors of RIC and VS following release from prison or jail.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

This is a retrospective cohort study of all adult people living with HIV (PLWH) incarcerated in Connecticut, US, during the period January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2011, and observed through December 31, 2014 (n = 1,094). Most cohort participants were unmarried (83.7%) men (77.0%) who were black or Hispanic (78.1%) and acquired HIV from injection drug use (72.6%). Prison-based pharmacy and custody databases were linked with community HIV surveillance monitoring and case management databases. Post-release RIC declined steadily over 3 years of follow-up (67.2% retained for year 1, 51.3% retained for years 1-2, and 42.5% retained for years 1-3). Compared with individuals who were not re-incarcerated, individuals who were re-incarcerated were more likely to meet RIC criteria (48% versus 34%; p < 0.001) but less likely to have VS (72% versus 81%; p = 0.048). Using multivariable logistic regression models (individual-level analysis for 1,001 individuals after excluding 93 deaths), both sustained RIC and VS at 3 years post-release were independently associated with older age (RIC: adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.61, 95% CI = 1.22-2.12; VS: AOR = 1.37, 95% CI = 1.06-1.78), having health insurance (RIC: AOR = 2.15, 95% CI = 1.60-2.89; VS: AOR = 2.01, 95% CI = 1.53-2.64), and receiving an increased number of transitional case management visits. The same factors were significant when we assessed RIC and VS outcomes in each 6-month period using generalized estimating equations (for 1,094 individuals contributing 6,227 6-month periods prior to death or censoring). Additionally, receipt of antiretroviral therapy during incarceration (RIC: AOR = 1.33, 95% CI 1.07-1.65; VS: AOR = 1.91, 95% CI = 1.56-2.34), early linkage to care post-release (RIC: AOR = 2.64, 95% CI = 2.03-3.43; VS: AOR = 1.79; 95% CI = 1.45-2.21), and absolute time and proportion of follow-up time spent re-incarcerated were highly correlated with better treatment outcomes. Limited data were available on changes over time in injection drug use or other substance use disorders, psychiatric disorders, or housing status.

CONCLUSIONS

In a large cohort of CJ-involved PLWH with a 3-year post-release evaluation, RIC diminished significantly over time, but was associated with HIV care during incarceration, health insurance, case management services, and early linkage to care post-release. While re-incarceration and conditional release provide opportunities to engage in care, reducing recidivism and supporting community-based RIC efforts are key to improving longitudinal treatment outcomes among CJ-involved PLWH.

Economic and Policy Analytic Approaches to Inform the Acceleration of HIV Prevention in the United States: Future Directions for the Field

The fields of economic and policy analysis have long played a role in quantifying the burden of the HIV epidemic and informing how to best deploy interventions and policies aimed at maximizing HIV care and reducing transmission. Looking towards the ultimate goal of ending the AIDS epidemic, we describe five areas for further development and application towards HIV policies: (1) setting measurable objectives to create a vision and monitor progress, (2) taking a health and wellness approach to goal-setting, (3) using impact matrices to inform quantitative analysis to explicitly address health disparities, (4) conducting budget impact analyses to project annual program costs and benefits, and (5) advancing the public health systems and services research agenda.

Pathways to Retention in HIV Care Among U.S. Veterans

Retaining HIV patients in clinical care is a critical component of the HIV care continuum, impacting not only patients' virologic suppression, but their overall health and wellbeing. Understanding reasons for patient drop-out is therefore important to improve HIV outcomes and reduce transmission. This study used qualitative in-depth interviews with patients who dropped out of HIV care (n = 16) from the Atlanta Veterans Affairs Medical Center, to explore their reasons for drop-out and how they negotiate barriers to return to care. Results show three interlinked "pathways" leading to patient drop-out -wellness, illness, and medication pathways. These pathways encompass both barriers to retention and triggers to resume clinic visits, with patients following different pathways at different times in their lives. Perhaps the strongest deterrent to continuing clinic visits was participants' self-perception of wellness, which often outweighed clinical indicators of wellness. These pathways suggest that multiple approaches are needed to improve treatment retention, including reducing clinic-based barriers, addressing basic needs that are barriers to clinic visits, and empowering patients to view clinic visits as a facilitator to maintaining their overall health rather than only a reaction to illness.

Barriers and Facilitators for Clinical Care Engagement Among HIV-Positive African American and Latino Men Who Have Sex with Men

Achieving optimal health among people living with HIV (PLWH) requires linkage to clinical care upon diagnosis, followed by ongoing engagement in HIV clinical care. A disproportionate number of black/African American and Hispanic/Latino men who have sex with men (MSM) living with HIV do not, however, achieve ongoing care. We conducted semistructured interviews in 2014 with 84 urban black/African American and Hispanic/Latino MSM living with HIV to understand their barriers and facilitators to engagement. We classified men as care-engaged or not at the time of the interview, and conducted content analysis of the interview transcripts to identify barriers and facilitators to engagement. Respondent mean age was 42.4 years (range, 20-59). Over half (59.5%, n = 50) were black/African American. Slightly more than a third (38.1%, n = 32) reported not being continuously care-engaged since diagnosis, and 17.9% (n = 15) delayed entry, although they have subsequently entered and remained in care. Sustained engagement began with overcoming denial after diagnosis and having treatment plans, as well as having conveniently located care facilities. Engagement also was facilitated by services tailored to meet multiple patient needs, effective patient-provider communication, and providers who show empathy and respect for their patients. Respondents were less likely to be care-engaged when these factors were absent. It can be difficult for racial and ethnic minority MSM living with HIV to begin and sustain care engagement. To optimize care engagement, our findings underscore the value of (1) convenient multipurpose HIV care facilities that meet patient needs; (2) excellent provider-patient communication that reinforces respect, trust, and HIV treatment literacy; and (3) assisting PLWH to create personalized treatment plans and overcome possible challenges such as diagnosis denial.

Role of Country of Birth, Testing Site, and Neighborhood Characteristics on Nonlinkage to HIV Care Among Latinos

The objective of this study was to estimate disparities in linkage to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) care among Latinos by country/region of birth, HIV testing site, and neighborhood characteristics. A retrospective study was conducted using Florida HIV surveillance records of Latinos/Hispanics aged ≥13 diagnosed during 2014-2015. Linkage to HIV care was defined as a laboratory test (HIV viral load or CD4) within 3 months of HIV diagnosis. Multi-level Poisson regression models were used to estimate adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) for nonlinkage to care. Of 2659 Latinos, 18.8% were not linked to care within 3 months. Compared with Latinos born in mainland United States, those born in Cuba [aPR 0.60, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.47-0.76] and Puerto Rico (aPR 0.61, 95% CI 0.41-0.90) had a decreased prevalence of nonlinkage. Latinos diagnosed at blood banks (aPR 2.34, 95% CI 1.75-3.12), HIV case management and screening facilities (aPR 1.76, 95% CI 1.46-2.14), and hospitals (aPR 1.42, 95% CI 1.03-1.96) had an increased prevalence of nonlinkage compared with outpatient general, infectious disease, and tuberculosis/sexually transmitted diseases/family planning clinics. Latinos who resided in the lowest (aPR 1.57, 95% CI 1.19-2.07) and third lowest (aPR 1.33, 95% CI 1.01-1.76) quartiles of neighborhood socioeconomic status compared with the highest quartile were at increased prevalence. Latinos who resided in neighborhoods with <25% Latinos also had increased prevalence of nonlinkage (aPR 1.23, 95% CI 1.01-1.51). Testing site at diagnosis may be an important determinant of HIV care linkage among Latinos due to neighborhood or individual-level resources that determine location of HIV testing.

What Will It Take to Reduce HIV Incidence in the United States: A Mathematical Modeling Analysis

Background

The National HIV/AIDS Strategy has set ambitious goals to improve the epidemic in the United States. However, there is a paucity of usable program-level benchmarks tied to population-level epidemiologic goals. Our objective was to define tangible benchmarks for annual rates along the care continuum that are likely to translate to meaningful reductions in incidence.

Methods

We used a validated mathematical model of HIV transmission and care engagement to characterize care continuum parameters that would translate into 50% reductions in incidence by 2025, compared with a base case scenario of the current US care continuum. We generated a large pool of simulations in which rates of screening, linkage, and retention in care were varied across wide ranges to evaluate permutations that halved incidence by 2025.

Results

Among all simulations, 7% achieved a halving of incidence. It was impossible for our simulations to achieve this target if the annual rate of disengagement from care exceeded 20% per year, even at high rates of care reengagement. When retention in care was 95% per year and people living with HIV (PLWH) out of care reengaged within 1.5 years (on average), the probability of halving incidence by 2025 was approximately 90%.

Conclusions

HIV programs should aim to retain at least 95% of PLWH in care annually and reengage people living with HIV into care within an average of 1.5 years to achieve the goal of halving HIV incidence by 2025.

Informing Targeted Interventions to Optimize the Cascade of HIV Care Using Cluster Analyses of Health Resource Use Among People Living with HIV/AIDS

Increased awareness of the secondary preventive benefits of antiretroviral treatment (ART) has strengthened the desire to optimize health care systems' response to HIV/AIDS. We identified clusters of health resource utilization (HRU) among people living with HIV (PLHIV) to inform targeted interventions aimed to optimize the cascade of HIV care. Using linked population-level health databases in British Columbia, Canada, we selected two analytic samples of PLHIV with 3 years of follow-up between 2006-2011 that were classified as intermittently retained in care or intermittently engaged in ART, and executed a probabilistic model-based clustering analysis for each sample with 5 and 9 quarterly HRU variables, respectively. We found clear HRU profile differences among both samples with similar HIV-related care: one featured active involvement in non-HIV care, the other little or no health care interaction following linkage to care. Differential reengagement intervention strategies capitalizing on missed opportunities in non-HIV care and further engaging physicians delivering HIV care are needed to optimize the response to the HIV epidemic.

Combinations of interventions to achieve a national HIV incidence reduction goal: insights from an agent-based model

OBJECTIVE

Analyzing HIV care service targets for achieving a national goal of a 25% reduction in annual HIV incidence and evaluating the use of annual HIV diagnoses to measure progress in incidence reduction.

DESIGN

Because there are considerable interactions among HIV care services, we model the dynamics of 'combinations' of increases in HIV care continuum targets to identify those that would achieve 25% reductions in annual incidence and diagnoses.

METHODS

We used Progression and Transmission of HIV/AIDS 2.0, an agent-based dynamic stochastic simulation of HIV in the United States.

RESULTS

A 25% reduction in annual incidence could be achieved by multiple alternative combinations of percentages of persons with diagnosed infection and persons with viral suppression including 85 and 68%, respectively, and 90 and 59%, respectively. The first combination corresponded to an 18% reduction in annual diagnoses, and infections being diagnosed at a median CD4 cell count of 372 cells/μl or approximately 3.8 years from time of infection. The corresponding values on the second combination are 4%, 462 cells/μl, and 2.0 years, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Our analysis provides policy makers with specific targets and alternative choices to achieve the goal of a 25% reduction in HIV incidence. Reducing annual diagnoses does not equate to reducing annual incidence. Instead, progress toward reducing incidence can be measured by monitoring HIV surveillance data trends in CD4 cell count at diagnosis along with the proportion who have achieved viral suppression to determine where to focus local programmatic efforts.

U.S. HIV Incidence and Transmission Goals, 2020 and 2025

INTRODUCTION

The recently updated U.S. National HIV/AIDS Strategy sets key HIV prevention and care targets for 2020, but the trajectory of the epidemic remains unclear. Authors modeled HIV incidence, prevalence, and mortality for the U.S. over 10 years to determine whether an ambitious trajectory toward "ending AIDS" by 2025 would be achievable.

METHODS

Authors utilized recently published 2010-2013 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention surveillance data to model HIV incidence, prevalence, and mortality. Authors applied a 90/90/90 framework (90% awareness of serostatus, 90% of diagnosed individuals in care, and 90% of individuals on antiretroviral therapy virally suppressed) by 2020 and 95/95/95 by 2025 to assess the feasibility of meeting epidemiologic targets. Analyses were conducted in 2016.

RESULTS

With a goal of reducing infections to 21,000 new HIV infections in 2020, authors project a transmission rate of 1.74, 12,571 deaths, and a total of 1,205,515 people living with HIV. By 2025, with a target of 12,000 new HIV infections (a 69% decrease in HIV incidence), authors project a transmission rate of 0.98, 12,522 deaths, and a total of 1,220,615 people living with HIV. With a 90/90/90 framework by 2020 and a 95/95/95 framework by 2025, these epidemiologic targets would be feasible.

CONCLUSIONS

Key programmatic milestones provide an ambitious, but important, pathway to reduce U.S. HIV incidence below 12,000 new infections by 2025. HIV incidence would decrease below mortality in 2025, marking a transition toward ending the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Such goals will require a sustained and intensified national commitment over the next decade.

Challenges in the Evaluation of Interventions to Improve Engagement Along the HIV Care Continuum in the United States: A Systematic Review

In the United States (US), there are high levels of disengagement along the HIV care continuum. We sought to characterize the heterogeneity in research studies and interventions to improve care engagement among people living with diagnosed HIV infection. We performed a systematic literature search for interventions to improve HIV linkage to care, retention in care, reengagement in care and adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the US published from 2007-mid 2015. Study designs and outcomes were allowed to vary in included studies. We grouped interventions into categories, target populations, and whether results were significantly improved. We identified 152 studies, 7 (5%) linkage studies, 33 (22%) retention studies, 4 (3%) reengagement studies, and 117 (77%) adherence studies. 'Linkage' studies utilized 11 different outcome definitions, while 'retention' studies utilized 39, with very little consistency in effect measurements. The majority (59%) of studies reported significantly improved outcomes, but this proportion and corresponding effect sizes varied substantially across study categories. This review highlights a paucity of assessments of linkage and reengagement interventions; limited generalizability of results; and substantial heterogeneity in intervention types, outcome definitions, and effect measures. In order to make strides against the HIV epidemic in the US, care continuum research must be improved and benchmarked against an integrated, comprehensive framework.

Projected demographic composition of the United States population of people living with diagnosed HIV

The transformation of HIV from a fatal disease to lifelong disease has resulted in an HIV-infected population that is growing and aging, placing new and increasing demands on public programs and health services. We used National HIV Surveillance System and US census data to project the demographic composition of the population of people living with diagnosed HIV (PLWDH) in the United States through 2045. The input parameters for the projections include: (1) census projections, (2) number of people with an existing HIV diagnosis in 2013, (3) number of new HIV diagnoses in 2013, and (4) death rate within the PLWDH population in 2013. Sex-, risk group-, and race-specific projections were estimated through an adapted Leslie Matrix Model for age-structured populations. Projections for 2013-2045 suggest that the number of PLWDH in the U.S. will consistently grow, from 917,294 to 1,232,054, though the annual growth rate will slow from 1.8% to 0.8%. The number of PLWDH aged 55 years and older will increase from 232,113 to 470,221. The number of non-Hispanic (NH) African Americans/Blacks and Hispanics is projected to consistently grow, shifting the racial/ethnic composition of the US PLWDH population from 32 to 23% NH-White, 42 to 38% NH-Black, and 20-32% Hispanic between 2013 and 2045. Given current trends, the composition of the PLWDH population is projected to change considerably. Public health practitioners should anticipate large shifts in the age and racial/ethnic structure of the PLWDH population in the United States.

Disparity in Retention in Care and Viral Suppression for Black Caribbean-Born Immigrants Living with HIV in Florida

(1) The study aim was to assess disparities in non-retention in HIV care and non-viral suppression among non-Hispanic Black Caribbean immigrants living with HIV in Florida. (2) We analyzed cases involving individuals, aged ≥13, who met CDC HIV case definition during 2000-2014. Chi square test was used to evaluate differences in non-retention and non-viral suppression by country of origin/race/ethnicity. Multilevel logistic regressions with three referent groups [US-born Blacks, Hispanics, and non-Hispanic Whites (NHWs)] were used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (aOR). (3) Caribbean-born Blacks were less likely to be retained in care or be virally suppressed than US-born Blacks, Hispanics, and NHWs. Bahamians, Haitians, and Trinidadians and Tobagonians had increased odds of non-retention (aOR 3.13, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.40 -4.10; aOR 1.52, 95% CI 1.40-1.66; aOR 2.30, 95% CI 1.38-3.83), and non-viral suppression (aOR 3.23, 95% CI 2.48-4.21; aOR 1.82, 95% CI 1.68-1.98; aOR 1.76, 95% CI 1.06-2.90) compared with NHWs. (4) Caribbean-born Blacks living with HIV infection are less likely than other racial/ethnic groups to be retained in care and/or achieve viral suppression. Further research is urgently needed to determine social, cultural, and biological factors that contribute to this disparity.