Discovery of Parkinson's disease states and disease progression modelling: a longitudinal data study using machine learning

Importance of health history analysis in Parkinson's disease

The objective of this research article is to investigate the impact of various health history factors on the risk of developing Parkinson's disease (PD). From the medical history we can identify PD Symptoms and this also help to detect the progression of PD symptoms. By conducting statistical analyses, the study seeks to identify independent risk and protective factors for Parkinson's disease (PD), considering variations in impact across genders and BMI categories.

Introduction

In the diagnosis of PD the analysis of previous health history is very rare in practice while the main diagnosis have been done through the different motor and non-motor symptoms taking in consideration besides the cardinal symptoms of PD for identification and determination the stages of PD. Here we have analyzed the impact of 56 different diseases, symptoms, and surgeries which a subject may have experienced in their life before PD, considered as a health history.

Methods

The behavioral impact for each types of health history have been analyzed statistically with 31,265 subjects including PD, and Control. In this analysis we have calculated the variation of impact for both the Male, and Female, as well as subjects BMI.

Results

98.12 % PD patients, where 97.63 % Male PD, and 98.71 % Female PD were found with at least one health history record. Coronary heart disease odds ratio (OR) 2.15 (1.85-2.51), Colon Cancer OR 2.11 (1.45-3.05), Cranial brain surgery OR 6.21 (5.11-7.56) have the higher risks to PD. Having the history of Asthma OR 0.66 (0.6-0.72), Anemia OR 0.56 (0.51-0.63), Cirrhosis in Liver OR 0.7 (0.57-0.86), Cosmetic surgery OR 0.7 (0.64-0.77), and Gastritis OR 0.78 (0.71-0.87) have been found to be protective to PD. The risk of developing PD varies between male, and female including subjects BMI for each individual health history types. The diseases which reduce the oxygen saturation in blood like, anemia, asthma, and thalassemia act as protective to PD.

Conclusions

In this study we have analyzed fifty six diseases which include surgeries as a health history of PD patients. Study suggests that a thorough health history could greatly aid in understanding the onset and progression of Parkinson's disease (PD).

Artificial intelligence in Parkinson's disease: Early detection and diagnostic advancements

Parkinson's disease (PD) is the second most common neurodegenerative disorder, globally affecting men and women at an exponentially growing rate, with currently no cure. Disease progression starts when dopaminergic neurons begin to die. In PD, the loss of neurotransmitter, dopamine is responsible for the overall communication of neural cells throughout the body. Clinical symptoms of PD are slowness of movement, involuntary muscular contractions, speech & writing changes, lessened automatic movement, and chronic tremors in the body. PD occurs in both familial and sporadic forms and modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors and socioeconomic conditions cause PD. Early detectable diagnostics and treatments have been developed in the last several decades. However, we still do not have precise early detectable biomarkers and therapeutic agents/drugs that prevent and/or delay the disease process. Recently, artificial intelligence (AI) science and machine learning tools have been promising in identifying early detectable markers with a greater rate of accuracy compared to past forms of treatment and diagnostic processes. Artificial intelligence refers to the intelligence exhibited by machines or software, distinct from the intelligence observed in humans that is based on neural networks in a form and can be used to diagnose the longevity and disease severity of disease. The term Machine Learning or Neural Networks is a blanket term used to identify an emerging technology that is created to work in the way of a "human brain" using many intertwined neurons to achieve the same level of raw intelligence as that of a brain. These processes have been used for neurodegenerative diseases such as Parkinson's disease and Alzheimer's disease, to assess the severity of the patient's condition. In the current article, we discuss the prevalence and incidence of PD, and currently available diagnostic biomarkers and therapeutic strategies. We also highlighted currently available artificial intelligence science and machine learning tools and their applications to detect disease and develop therapeutic interventions.

Machine learning on longitudinal multi-modal data enables the understanding and prognosis of Alzheimer's disease progression

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a complex pathophysiological disease. Allowing for heterogeneity, not only in disease manifestations but also in different progression patterns, is critical for developing effective disease models that can be used in clinical and research settings. We introduce a machine learning model for identifying underlying patterns in Alzheimer's disease (AD) trajectory using longitudinal multi-modal data from the ADNI cohort and the AIBL cohort. Ten biologically and clinically meaningful disease-related states were identified from data, which constitute three non-overlapping stages (i.e., neocortical atrophy [NCA], medial temporal atrophy [MTA], and whole brain atrophy [WBA]) and two distinct disease progression patterns (i.e., NCA → WBA and MTA → WBA). The index of disease-related states provided a remarkable performance in predicting the time to conversion to AD dementia (C-Index: 0.923 ± 0.007). Our model shows potential for promoting the understanding of heterogeneous disease progression and early predicting the conversion time to AD dementia.

Multimodal Technologies for Remote Assessment of Neurological and Mental Health

PURPOSE

Automated remote assessment and monitoring of patients' neurological and mental health is increasingly becoming an essential component of the digital clinic and telehealth ecosystem, especially after the COVID-19 pandemic. This review article reviews various modalities of health information that are useful for developing such remote clinical assessments in the real world at scale.

APPROACH

We first present an overview of the various modalities of health information-speech acoustics, natural language, conversational dynamics, orofacial or full body movement, eye gaze, respiration, cardiopulmonary, and neural-which can each be extracted from various signal sources-audio, video, text, or sensors. We further motivate their clinical utility with examples of how information from each modality can help us characterize how different disorders affect different aspects of patients' spoken communication. We then elucidate the advantages of combining one or more of these modalities toward a more holistic, informative, and robust assessment.

FINDINGS

We find that combining multiple modalities of health information allows for improved scientific interpretability, improved performance on downstream health applications such as early detection and progress monitoring, improved technological robustness, and improved user experience. We illustrate how these principles can be leveraged for remote clinical assessment at scale using a real-world case study of the Modality assessment platform.

CONCLUSION

This review article motivates the combination of human-centric information from multiple modalities to measure various aspects of patients' health, arguing that remote clinical assessment that integrates this complementary information can be more effective and lead to better clinical outcomes than using any one data stream in isolation.

Levodopa-induced dyskinesia in Parkinson's disease: Insights from cross-cohort prognostic analysis using machine learning

BACKGROUND

Prolonged levodopa treatment in Parkinson's disease (PD) often leads to motor complications, including levodopa-induced dyskinesia (LID). Despite continuous levodopa treatment, some patients do not develop LID symptoms, even in later stages of the disease.

OBJECTIVE

This study explores machine learning (ML) methods using baseline clinical characteristics to predict the development of LID in PD patients over four years, across multiple cohorts.

METHODS

Using interpretable ML approaches, we analyzed clinical data from three independent longitudinal PD cohorts (LuxPARK, n = 356; PPMI, n = 484; ICEBERG, n = 113) to develop cross-cohort prognostic models and identify potential predictors for the development of LID. We examined cohort-specific and shared predictive factors, assessing model performance and stability through cross-validation analyses.

RESULTS

Consistent cross-validation results for single and multiple cohort analyses highlighted the effectiveness of the ML models and identified baseline clinical characteristics with significant predictive value for the LID prognosis in PD. Predictors positively correlated with LID include axial symptoms, freezing of gait, and rigidity in the lower extremities. Conversely, the risk of developing LID was inversely associated with the occurrence of resting tremors, higher body weight, later onset of PD, and visuospatial abilities.

CONCLUSIONS

This study presents interpretable ML models for dyskinesia prognosis with significant predictive power in cross-cohort analyses. The models may pave the way for proactive interventions against dyskinesia in PD by optimizing levodopa dosing regimens and adjunct treatments with dopamine agonists or MAO-B inhibitors, and by employing non-pharmacological interventions such as dietary adjustments affecting levodopa absorption for high-risk LID patients.

Disease progression modeling with temporal realignment: An emerging approach to deepen knowledge on chronic diseases

The recent development of the first disease-modifying drug for Alzheimer's disease represents a major advancement in dementia treatment. Behind this breakthrough is a quarter century of research efforts to understand the disease not by a particular symptom at a given moment, but by long-term sequential changes in multiple biomarkers. Disease progression modeling with temporal realignment (DPM-TR) is an emerging computational approach proposed with this biomarker-based disease concept. By integrating short-term clinical observations of multiple disease biomarkers in a data-driven manner, DPM-TR provides a way to understand the progression of chronic diseases over decades and predict individual disease stages more accurately. DPM-TR has been developed primarily in the area of neurodegenerative diseases but has recently been extended to non-neurodegenerative diseases, including chronic obstructive pulmonary, autoimmune, and ophthalmologic diseases. This review focuses on opportunities for DPM-TR in clinical practice and drug development and discusses its current status and challenges.

Transcriptional pathobiology and multi-omics predictors for Parkinson's disease

Early diagnosis and biomarker discovery to bolster the therapeutic pipeline for Parkinson's disease (PD) are urgently needed. In this study, we leverage the large-scale whole-blood total RNA-seq dataset from the Accelerating Medicine Partnership in Parkinson's Disease (AMP PD) program to identify PD-associated RNAs, including both known genes and novel circular RNAs (circRNA) and enhancer RNAs (eRNAs). There were 1,111 significant marker RNAs, including 491 genes, 599 eRNAs, and 21 circRNAs, that were first discovered in the PPMI cohort (FDR < 0.05) and confirmed in the PDBP/BioFIND cohorts (nominal p < 0.05). Functional enrichment analysis showed that the PD-associated genes are involved in neutrophil activation and degranulation, as well as the TNF-alpha signaling pathway. We further compare the PD-associated genes in blood with those in post-mortem brain dopamine neurons in our BRAINcode cohort. 44 genes show significant changes with the same direction in both PD brain neurons and PD blood, including neuroinflammation-associated genes IKBIP, CXCR2, and NFKBIB. Finally, we built a novel multi-omics machine learning model to predict PD diagnosis with high performance (AUC = 0.89), which was superior to previous studies and might aid the decision-making for PD diagnosis in clinical practice. In summary, this study delineates a wide spectrum of the known and novel RNAs linked to PD and are detectable in circulating blood cells in a harmonized, large-scale dataset. It provides a generally useful computational framework for further biomarker development and early disease prediction.

Computational Modeling to Identify Drugs Targeting Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer Characterized by Heightened Glycolysis

Metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) remains a deadly disease due to a lack of efficacious treatments. The reprogramming of cancer metabolism toward elevated glycolysis is a hallmark of mCRPC. Our goal is to identify therapeutics specifically associated with high glycolysis. Here, we established a computational framework to identify new pharmacological agents for mCRPC with heightened glycolysis activity under a tumor microenvironment, followed by in vitro validation. First, using our established computational tool, OncoPredict, we imputed the likelihood of drug responses to approximately 1900 agents in each mCRPC tumor from two large clinical patient cohorts. We selected drugs with predicted sensitivity highly correlated with glycolysis scores. In total, 77 drugs predicted to be more sensitive in high glycolysis mCRPC tumors were identified. These drugs represent diverse mechanisms of action. Three of the candidates, ivermectin, CNF2024, and P276-00, were selected for subsequent vitro validation based on the highest measured drug responses associated with glycolysis/OXPHOS in pan-cancer cell lines. By decreasing the input glucose level in culture media to mimic the mCRPC tumor microenvironments, we induced a high-glycolysis condition in PC3 cells and validated the projected higher sensitivity of all three drugs under this condition (p < 0.0001 for all drugs). For biomarker discovery, ivermectin and P276-00 were predicted to be more sensitive to mCRPC tumors with low androgen receptor activities and high glycolysis activities (AR(low)Gly(high)). In addition, we integrated a protein-protein interaction network and topological methods to identify biomarkers for these drug candidates. EEF1B2 and CCNA2 were identified as key biomarkers for ivermectin and CNF2024, respectively, through multiple independent biomarker nomination pipelines. In conclusion, this study offers new efficacious therapeutics beyond traditional androgen-deprivation therapies by precisely targeting mCRPC with high glycolysis.

Transitioning from Subtyping to Precision Medicine in Parkinson's Disease: A Purpose-Driven Approach

The International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society (MDS) created a task force (TF) to provide a critical overview of the Parkinson's disease (PD) subtyping field and develop a guidance on future research in PD subtypes. Based on a literature review, we previously concluded that PD subtyping requires an ultimate alignment with principles of precision medicine, and consequently novel approaches were needed to describe heterogeneity at the individual patient level. In this manuscript, we present a novel purpose-driven framework for subtype research as a guidance to clinicians and researchers when proposing to develop, evaluate, or use PD subtypes. Using a formal consensus methodology, we determined that the key purposes of PD subtyping are: (1) to predict disease progression, for both the development of therapies (use in clinical trials) and prognosis counseling, (2) to predict response to treatments, and (3) to identify therapeutic targets for disease modification. For each purpose, we describe the desired product and the research required for its development. Given the current state of knowledge and data resources, we see purpose-driven subtyping as a pragmatic and necessary step on the way to precision medicine. © 2024 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Artificial intelligence and open science in discovery of disease-modifying medicines for Alzheimer's disease

The high failure rate of clinical trials in Alzheimer's disease (AD) and AD-related dementia (ADRD) is due to a lack of understanding of the pathophysiology of disease, and this deficit may be addressed by applying artificial intelligence (AI) to "big data" to rapidly and effectively expand therapeutic development efforts. Recent accelerations in computing power and availability of big data, including electronic health records and multi-omics profiles, have converged to provide opportunities for scientific discovery and treatment development. Here, we review the potential utility of applying AI approaches to big data for discovery of disease-modifying medicines for AD/ADRD. We illustrate how AI tools can be applied to the AD/ADRD drug development pipeline through collaborative efforts among neurologists, gerontologists, geneticists, pharmacologists, medicinal chemists, and computational scientists. AI and open data science expedite drug discovery and development of disease-modifying therapeutics for AD/ADRD and other neurodegenerative diseases.

Data-driven modelling of neurodegenerative disease progression: thinking outside the black box

Data-driven disease progression models are an emerging set of computational tools that reconstruct disease timelines for long-term chronic diseases, providing unique insights into disease processes and their underlying mechanisms. Such methods combine a priori human knowledge and assumptions with large-scale data processing and parameter estimation to infer long-term disease trajectories from short-term data. In contrast to 'black box' machine learning tools, data-driven disease progression models typically require fewer data and are inherently interpretable, thereby aiding disease understanding in addition to enabling classification, prediction and stratification. In this Review, we place the current landscape of data-driven disease progression models in a general framework and discuss their enhanced utility for constructing a disease timeline compared with wider machine learning tools that construct static disease profiles. We review the insights they have enabled across multiple neurodegenerative diseases, notably Alzheimer disease, for applications such as determining temporal trajectories of disease biomarkers, testing hypotheses about disease mechanisms and uncovering disease subtypes. We outline key areas for technological development and translation to a broader range of neuroscience and non-neuroscience applications. Finally, we discuss potential pathways and barriers to integrating disease progression models into clinical practice and trial settings.

Charting Disease Trajectories from Isolated REM Sleep Behavior Disorder to Parkinson's Disease

BACKGROUND

Clinical presentation and progression dynamics are variable in patients with Parkinson's disease (PD). Disease course mapping is an innovative disease modelling technique that summarizes the range of possible disease trajectories and estimates dimensions related to onset, sequence, and speed of progression of disease markers.

OBJECTIVE

To propose a disease course map for PD and investigate progression profiles in patients with or without rapid eye movement sleep behavioral disorders (RBD).

METHODS

Data of 919 PD patients and 88 isolated RBD patients from three independent longitudinal cohorts were analyzed (follow-up duration = 5.1; 95% confidence interval, 1.1-8.1] years). Disease course map was estimated by using eight clinical markers (motor and non-motor symptoms) and four imaging markers (dopaminergic denervation).

RESULTS

PD course map showed that the first changes occurred in the contralateral putamen 13 years before diagnosis, followed by changes in motor symptoms, dysautonomia, sleep-all before diagnosis-and finally cognitive decline at the time of diagnosis. The model showed earlier disease onset, earlier non-motor and later motor symptoms, more rapid progression of cognitive decline in PD patients with RBD than PD patients without RBD. This pattern was even more pronounced in patients with isolated RBD with early changes in sleep, followed by cognition and non-motor symptoms and later changes in motor symptoms.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings are consistent with the presence of distinct patterns of progression between patients with and without RBD. Understanding heterogeneity of PD progression is key to decipher the underlying pathophysiology and select homogeneous subgroups of patients for precision medicine. © 2023 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Machine Learning-Based Classification of Parkinson's Disease Patients Using Speech Biomarkers

BACKGROUND

Parkinson's disease (PD) is the most prevalent neurodegenerative movement disorder and a growing health concern in demographically aging societies. The prevalence of PD among individuals over the age of 60 and 80 years has been reported to range between 1% and 4%. A timely diagnosis of PD is desirable, even though it poses challenges to medical systems.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to classify PD and healthy controls based on the analysis of voice records at different frequencies using machine learning (ML) algorithms.

METHODS

The voices of 252 individuals aged 33 to 87 years were recorded. Based on the voice record data, ML algorithms can distinguish PD patients and healthy controls. One binary decision variable was associated with 756 instances and 754 attributes. Voice records data were analyzed through supervised ML algorithms and pipelines. A 10-fold cross-validation method was used to validate models.

RESULTS

In the classification of PD patients, ML models were performed with 84.21 accuracy, 93 precision, 89 Sensitivity, 89 F1-scores, and 87 AUC. The pipeline performance improved to accuracy: 85.09, precision: 92, Sensitivity:91, F1-score: 89, and AUC: 90. The Pipeline methods improved the performance of classifying PD from voice record.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study demonstrated that ML classifiers and pipelines can classify PD patients based on speech biomarkers. It was found that pipelines were more effective at selecting the most relevant features from high-dimensional data and at accurately classifying PD patients and healthy controls. This approach can therefore be used for early diagnosis of initial forms of PD.

Daily Habits in Parkinson's Disease: Validation of the Daily Habit Scale

Objective

The objective of the study was to validate a new scale for assessing habitual behavior-the Daily Habit Scale in patients with Parkinson's disease.

Background

Parkinson's disease patients are impaired in habit learning and skill acquisition. Despite repeated practice, they have difficulty developing habitual responses.

Methods

One hundred seventy-nine patients (Median (Mdn) = 69 [64-76], 65 females) participated in the study. Corrected item-to-total correlations were calculated to assess the item-convergent and item discriminant validity. Confirmatory factor analysis and assessment of internal consistency were also carried out. Concurrent validity in respect to measures of anxiety and depression, apathy, impulsivity, personality, multidimensional health locus of control, and health-related quality of life was also calculated. To determine the test-retest reliability of the scale, 30 patients (Mdn = 69 [66-73], 9 females) completed a second copy of the scale 6 months after the first.

Results

Twenty-nine items (76%) and 9 items (24%) of the 38-item scale, respectively, showed a very good and good convergent validity. All the items discriminated between their own factor and the other factors. The comparative fit index of 0.932 indicated an acceptable model fit of the data, whereas the root mean square error of approximation of 0.06 moderate model fit. The scale had a good internal consistency (Cronbach α = 0.792), and a moderate test-retest reliability (0.57). Females had higher scores on two factors compared to men (Factor 3: household activities and Factor 8: sleep-related activities).

Conclusions

The Daily Habit Scale is a reliable and valid tool to measure daily habits in Parkinson's disease.

Predictive Models for Health Deterioration: Understanding Disease Pathways for Personalized Medicine

Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) methods are currently widely employed in medicine and healthcare. A PubMed search returns more than 100,000 articles on these topics published between 2018 and 2022 alone. Notwithstanding several recent reviews in various subfields of AI and ML in medicine, we have yet to see a comprehensive review around the methods' use in longitudinal analysis and prediction of an individual patient's health status within a personalized disease pathway. This review seeks to fill that gap. After an overview of the AI and ML methods employed in this field and of specific medical applications of models of this type, the review discusses the strengths and limitations of current studies and looks ahead to future strands of research in this field. We aim to enable interested readers to gain a detailed impression of the research currently available and accordingly plan future work around predictive models for deterioration in health status.

Explainable machine learning models based on multimodal time-series data for the early detection of Parkinson's disease

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Parkinson's Disease (PD) is a devastating chronic neurological condition. Machine learning (ML) techniques have been used in the early prediction of PD progression. Fusion of heterogeneous data modalities proved its capability to improve the performance of ML models. Time series data fusion supports the tracking of the disease over time. In addition, the trustworthiness of the resulting models is improved by adding model explainability features. The literature on PD has not sufficiently explored these three points.

METHODS

In this work, we proposed an ML pipeline for predicting the progression of PD that is both accurate and explainable. We explore the fusion of different combinations of five time series modalities from the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI) real-world dataset, including patient characteristics, biosamples, medication history, motor, and non-motor function data. Each patient has six visits. The problem has been formulated in two ways: ❶ a three-class based progression prediction with 953 patients in each time series modality, and ❷ a four-class based progression prediction with 1,060 patients in each time series modality. The statistical features of these six visits were calculated from each modality and diverse feature selection methods were applied to select the most informative feature sets. The extracted features were used to train a set of well-known ML models including Support vector machines (SVM), random forests (RF), extra tree classifier (ETC), light gradient boosting machines (LGBM), and stochastic gradient descent (SGD). We examined a number of data-balancing strategies in the pipeline with different combinations of modalities. ML models have been optimized using the Bayesian optimizer. A comprehensive evaluation of various ML methods has been conducted, and the best models have been extended to provide different explainability features.

RESULTS

We compare the performance of ML models before and after optimization and using and without using feature selection. In the three-class experiment and with various modality fusions, the LGBM model produced the most accurate results with a 10-fold cross-validation (10-CV) accuracy of 90.73% using non-motor function modality. RF produced the best results in the four-class experiment with various modality fusions with a 10-CV accuracy of 94.57% using non-motor modality. With the fused dataset of non-motor and motor function modalities, the LGBM model outperformed the other ML models in both the 3-class and 4-class experiments (i.e., 10-CV accuracy of 94.89% and 93.73%, respectively). Using the Shapely Additive Explanations (SHAP) framework, we employed global and instance-based explanations to explain the behavior of each ML classifier. Moreover, we extended the explainability by implementing the LIME and SHAPASH local explainers. The consistency of these explainers has been explored. The resultant classifiers were accurate, explainable, and thus medically more relevant and applicable.

CONCLUSIONS

The select modalities and feature sets were confirmed by the literature and medical experts. The various explainers suggest that the bradykinesia (NP3BRADY) feature was the most dominant and consistent. By providing thorough insights into the influence of multiple modalities on the disease risk, the suggested approach is expected to help improve the clinical knowledge of PD progression processes.

Machine learning within the Parkinson's progression markers initiative: Review of the current state of affairs

The Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI) has collected more than a decade's worth of longitudinal and multi-modal data from patients, healthy controls, and at-risk individuals, including imaging, clinical, cognitive, and 'omics' biospecimens. Such a rich dataset presents unprecedented opportunities for biomarker discovery, patient subtyping, and prognostic prediction, but it also poses challenges that may require the development of novel methodological approaches to solve. In this review, we provide an overview of the application of machine learning methods to analyzing data from the PPMI cohort. We find that there is significant variability in the types of data, models, and validation procedures used across studies, and that much of what makes the PPMI data set unique (multi-modal and longitudinal observations) remains underutilized in most machine learning studies. We review each of these dimensions in detail and provide recommendations for future machine learning work using data from the PPMI cohort.

A progression analysis of motor features in Parkinson's disease based on the mapper algorithm

Background

Parkinson's disease (PD) is a neurodegenerative disease with a broad spectrum of motor and non-motor symptoms. The great heterogeneity of clinical symptoms, biomarkers, and neuroimaging and lack of reliable progression markers present a significant challenge in predicting disease progression and prognoses.

Methods

We propose a new approach to disease progression analysis based on the mapper algorithm, a tool from topological data analysis. In this paper, we apply this method to the data from the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI). We then construct a Markov chain on the mapper output graphs.

Results

The resulting progression model yields a quantitative comparison of patients' disease progression under different usage of medications. We also obtain an algorithm to predict patients' UPDRS III scores.

Conclusions

By using mapper algorithm and routinely gathered clinical assessments, we developed a new dynamic models to predict the following year's motor progression in the early stage of PD. The use of this model can predict motor evaluations at the individual level, assisting clinicians to adjust intervention strategy for each patient and identifying at-risk patients for future disease-modifying therapy clinical trials.

Using machine learning to model older adult inpatient trajectories from electronic health records data

Electronic Health Records (EHR) data can provide novel insights into inpatient trajectories. Blood tests and vital signs from de-identified patients' hospital admission episodes (AE) were represented as multivariate time-series (MVTS) to train unsupervised Hidden Markov Models (HMM) and represent each AE day as one of 17 states. All HMM states were clinically interpreted based on their patterns of MVTS variables and relationships with clinical information. Visualization differentiated patients progressing toward stable 'discharge-like' states versus those remaining at risk of inpatient mortality (IM). Chi-square tests confirmed these relationships (two states associated with IM; 12 states with ≥1 diagnosis). Logistic Regression and Random Forest (RF) models trained with MVTS data rather than states had higher prediction performances of IM, but results were comparable (best RF model AUC-ROC: MVTS data = 0.85; HMM states = 0.79). ML models extracted clinically interpretable signals from hospital data. The potential of ML to develop decision-support tools for EHR systems warrants investigation.

Precision medicine for Parkinson's disease: The subtyping challenge

Despite many pharmacological and surgical treatments addressing the symptoms of Parkinson's disease, there are no approved treatments that slow disease progression. Genetic discoveries in the last 20 years have increased our understanding of the molecular contributors to Parkinson's pathophysiology, uncovered many druggable targets and pathways, and increased investment in treatments that might slow or stop the disease process. Longitudinal, observational studies are dissecting Parkinson's disease heterogeneity and illuminating the importance of molecularly defined subtypes more likely to respond to targeted interventions. Indeed, clinical and pathological differences seen within and across carriers of PD-associated gene mutations suggest the existence of greater biological complexity than previously appreciated and increase the likelihood that targeted interventions based on molecular characteristics will be beneficial. This article offers our current perspective on the promise and current challenges in subtype identification and precision medicine approaches in Parkinson's disease.

Genetically-informed prediction of short-term Parkinson's disease progression

Parkinson's disease (PD) treatments modify disease symptoms but have not been shown to slow progression, characterized by gradual and varied motor and non-motor changes overtime. Variation in PD progression hampers clinical research, resulting in long and expensive clinical trials prone to failure. Development of models for short-term PD progression prediction could be useful for shortening the time required to detect disease-modifying drug effects in clinical studies. PD progressors were defined by an increase in MDS-UPDRS scores at 12-, 24-, and 36-months post-baseline. Using only baseline features, PD progression was separately predicted across all timepoints and MDS-UPDRS subparts in independent, optimized, XGBoost models. These predictions plus baseline features were combined into a meta-predictor for 12-month MDS UPDRS Total progression. Data from the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI) were used for training with independent testing on the Parkinson's Disease Biomarkers Program (PDBP) cohort. 12-month PD total progression was predicted with an F-measure 0.77, ROC AUC of 0.77, and PR AUC of 0.76 when tested on a hold-out PPMI set. When tested on PDBP we achieve a F-measure 0.75, ROC AUC of 0.74, and PR AUC of 0.73. Exclusion of genetic predictors led to the greatest loss in predictive accuracy; ROC AUC of 0.66, PR AUC of 0.66-0.68 for both PPMI and PDBP testing. Short-term PD progression can be predicted with a combination of survey-based, neuroimaging, physician examination, and genetic predictors. Dissection of the interplay between genetic risk, motor symptoms, non-motor symptoms, and longer-term expected rates of progression enable generalizable predictions.

Intelligent wearable allows out-of-the-lab tracking of developing motor abilities in infants

Background

Early neurodevelopmental care needs better, effective and objective solutions for assessing infants' motor abilities. Novel wearable technology opens possibilities for characterizing spontaneous movement behavior. This work seeks to construct and validate a generalizable, scalable, and effective method to measure infants' spontaneous motor abilities across all motor milestones from lying supine to fluent walking.

Methods

A multi-sensor infant wearable was constructed, and 59 infants (age 5-19 months) were recorded during their spontaneous play. A novel gross motor description scheme was used for human visual classification of postures and movements at a second-level time resolution. A deep learning -based classifier was then trained to mimic human annotations, and aggregated recording-level outputs were used to provide posture- and movement-specific developmental trajectories, which enabled more holistic assessments of motor maturity.

Results

Recordings were technically successful in all infants, and the algorithmic analysis showed human-equivalent-level accuracy in quantifying the observed postures and movements. The aggregated recordings were used to train an algorithm for predicting a novel neurodevelopmental measure, Baba Infant Motor Score (BIMS). This index estimates maturity of infants' motor abilities, and it correlates very strongly (Pearson's r = 0.89, p < 1e-20) to the chronological age of the infant.

Conclusions

The results show that out-of-hospital assessment of infants' motor ability is possible using a multi-sensor wearable. The algorithmic analysis provides metrics of motility that are transparent, objective, intuitively interpretable, and they link strongly to infants' age. Such a solution could be automated and scaled to a global extent, holding promise for functional benchmarking in individualized patient care or early intervention trials.

Leveraging the Potential of Digital Technology for Better Individualized Treatment of Parkinson's Disease

Recent years have witnessed a strongly increasing interest in digital technology within medicine (sensor devices, specific smartphone apps) and specifically also neurology. Quantitative measures derived from digital technology could provide Digital Biomarkers (DMs) enabling a quantitative and continuous monitoring of disease symptoms, also outside clinics. This includes the possibility to continuously and sensitively monitor the response to treatment, hence opening the opportunity to adapt medication pathways quickly. In addition, DMs may in the future allow early diagnosis, stratification of patient subgroups and prediction of clinical outcomes. Thus, DMs could complement or in certain cases even replace classical examiner-based outcome measures and molecular biomarkers measured in cerebral spinal fluid, blood, urine, saliva, or other body liquids. Altogether, DMs could play a prominent role in the emerging field of precision medicine. However, realizing this vision requires dedicated research. First, advanced data analytical methods need to be developed and applied, which extract candidate DMs from raw signals. Second, these candidate DMs need to be validated by (a) showing their correlation to established clinical outcome measures, and (b) demonstrating their diagnostic and/or prognostic value compared to established biomarkers. These points again require the use of advanced data analytical methods, including machine learning. In addition, the arising ethical, legal and social questions associated with the collection and processing of sensitive patient data and the use of machine learning methods to analyze these data for better individualized treatment of the disease, must be considered thoroughly. Using Parkinson's Disease (PD) as a prime example of a complex multifactorial disorder, the purpose of this article is to critically review the current state of research regarding the use of DMs, discuss open challenges and highlight emerging new directions.

A Hybrid Machine Learning and Network Analysis Approach Reveals Two Parkinson's Disease Subtypes from 115 RNA-Seq Post-Mortem Brain Samples

Precision medicine emphasizes fine-grained diagnostics, taking individual variability into account to enhance treatment effectiveness. Parkinson’s disease (PD) heterogeneity among individuals proves the existence of disease subtypes, so subgrouping patients is vital for better understanding disease mechanisms and designing precise treatment. The purpose of this study was to identify PD subtypes using RNA-Seq data in a combined pipeline including unsupervised machine learning, bioinformatics, and network analysis. Two hundred and ten post mortem brain RNA-Seq samples from PD (n = 115) and normal controls (NCs, n = 95) were obtained with systematic data retrieval following PRISMA statements and a fully data-driven clustering pipeline was performed to identify PD subtypes. Bioinformatics and network analyses were performed to characterize the disease mechanisms of the identified PD subtypes and to identify target genes for drug repurposing. Two PD clusters were identified and 42 DEGs were found (p adjusted ≤ 0.01). PD clusters had significantly different gene network structures (p < 0.0001) and phenotype-specific disease mechanisms, highlighting the differential involvement of the Wnt/β-catenin pathway regulating adult neurogenesis. NEUROD1 was identified as a key regulator of gene networks and ISX9 and PD98059 were identified as NEUROD1-interacting compounds with disease-modifying potential, reducing the effects of dopaminergic neurodegeneration. This hybrid data analysis approach could enable precision medicine applications by providing insights for the identification and characterization of pathological subtypes. This workflow has proven useful on PD brain RNA-Seq, but its application to other neurodegenerative diseases is encouraged.

Biomanufacturing in low Earth orbit for regenerative medicine

Research in low Earth orbit (LEO) has become more accessible. The 2020 Biomanufacturing in Space Symposium reviewed space-based regenerative medicine research and discussed leveraging LEO to advance biomanufacturing for regenerative medicine applications. The symposium identified areas where financial investments could stimulate advancements overcoming technical barriers. Opportunities in disease modeling, stem-cell-derived products, and biofabrication were highlighted. The symposium will initiate a roadmap to a sustainable market for regenerative medicine biomanufacturing in space. This perspective summarizes the 2020 Biomanufacturing in Space Symposium, highlights key biomanufacturing opportunities in LEO, and lays the framework for a roadmap to regenerative medicine biomanufacturing in space.