COVID-19: Second Wave or Multiple Peaks, Natural Herd Immunity or Vaccine - We Should be Prepared

The negative impact of loneliness and perceived stress on mental health during two-month lockdown in Shanghai

BACKGROUND

Shanghai undergone COVID-19 lockdown for 2 months in 2022, affecting >25 million population. We aim to find changes in mental health during Shanghai lockdown and if mental health was associated with Shanghai lockdown, loneliness, and perceived stress.

METHODS

We conducted two cross-sectional online surveys in China, which were before and at the end of Shanghai lockdown (survey 1 in January 2022, N = 1123; survey 2 in June 2022, N = 2139). Participants reported mental health, loneliness, and perceived stress through the 12-item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12), the short-form UCLA Loneliness Scale (ULS-8), and the 10-item Perceived Stress Scale (PSS-10). We compared data between survey 1 and 2. We ran a multiple linear regression model to investigate the impact of Shanghai lockdown, loneliness and perceived stress on mental health.

RESULTS

There's an increase in the proportion of lonely people during Shanghai lockdown (49.77 % to 65.26 %). During Shanghai lockdown, the proportion of lonely people (68.97 % VS. 61.35 %, p < 0.001) and risk for mental health conditions (50.50 % VS. 43.27 %, p < 0.001) were higher among residents in Shanghai than outside Shanghai. Shanghai lockdown (b = 0.556, p = 0.02), higher ULS-8 (b = 0.284, p < 0.001) and higher PSS-10 (b = 0.365, p < 0.001) were associated with higher GHQ-12.

LIMITATIONS

Participants reported their mental health status during Shanghai lockdown retrospectively.

CONCLUSION

Shanghai lockdown had psychological impacts not only on residents in Shanghai but also outside Shanghai. Addressing loneliness and perceived stress accommodated to the lockdown situation should be considered.

The day after tomorrow: cardiac surgery and coronavirus disease-2019

The impact of the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic forced the governments worldwide to deal with an unprecedented health crisis. The aim of this review is to summarize what happened to cardiac surgery worldwide during the first wave of this pandemic. A literature search was performed to extrapolate key concepts regarding guidelines and reorganization of cardiac surgery wards during COVID-19. Supporting literature was also included to discuss the hot topics related to COVID-19 and cardiac surgery. Hence, both official documents from national scientific societies and single- or multiple-center experiences during the pandemics are reviewed and discussed. In Italy, the first western country hit by the pandemic, two different models were proposed to cope with the need for ICU/ward beds and to reallocate cardiac surgical services: Hub-and-Spoke system ('Hubs', dedicated to perform urgent and nondeferrable surgery, and 'Spokes', turned into COVID centers) and/or a progressive reduction in surgical activity. Worldwide, several guidelines/consensus statements were published, suggesting how to deal with the outbreak. Two different approaches for stratifying surgical indications were proposed: dynamic, based on the number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients; static, based only on the severity of the cardiovascular disease. Moreover, the importance of personal protective equipment was stressed. Several measures should have been adopted to deal with an unprecedented need for healthcare resources allocation to care for COVID-19 patients, putting the healthcare systems under serious stress. Cardiac surgery has, as have most surgical activities, been asked to reduce its own activity, giving priority to emergency and nondeferrable cases.

Distanciamento social durante a pandemia da Covid-19 e a crise do Estado federativo: um ensaio do contexto brasileiro

RESUMO Este artigo propõe uma análise das medidas de distanciamento social adotadas durante a pan- demia da Covid-19 no Brasil a partir de um recorte temporal desde março de 2020 até o início do ano de 2021. O estudo se baseia em uma análise retrospectiva das medidas de distanciamento social instituídas por cada Unidade Federada (UF) e o respectivo contexto de adoção das medidas de flexibilização nelas. Posteriormente, é feita uma reflexão acerca do impacto do regime federalista vigente no Brasil na adoção das políticas de distanciamento social durante a pandemia da Covid-19. Para tanto, foi feita uma análise documental em notas técnicas, artigos científicos, páginas eletrônicas oficiais do governo, Diário Oficial das UF e boletins epidemiológicos, visando abarcar todas as deliberações legais e orientações oficiais dos governos referentes às medidas de distanciamento social. O estudo evidenciou a necessidade premente de fortalecimento da coordenação federativa na gestão da crise sanitária da Covid-19 e o incentivo a campanhas sociais que endossem a importância e a efetividade das medidas de distanciamento social, além da tomada de decisões que viabilizem isso, como a reinstituição do auxílio emergencial pelo governo.

Psychotropic medications sales during COVID-19 outbreak in Italy changed according to the pandemic phases and related lockdowns

OBJECTIVES

We have investigated the psychotropic medications sales (i.e. benzodiazepines, mood stabilisers and selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors) during the COVID-19 pandemic in the period from March 2020 to February 2021 compared with the same period in the preceding year.

STUDY DESIGN

This was a retrospective and observational study.

METHODS

Data were obtained from five pharmacies located in a working-class zone populated by approximately 150,000 people in the urban area of Rome (Italy).

RESULTS

A general slight increase in psychotropic medications sales was observed during the whole pandemic period compared with the previous year.

CONCLUSION

Our data showed that (1) the percentage of sales seems to vary according to the pandemic phases and related lockdowns and (2) the sales differ between the classes of medications considered.

Comparing community mobility reduction between first and second COVID-19 waves

BACKGROUND

In this paper, we conduct a mobility reduction rate comparison between the first and second COVID-19 waves in several localities from America and Europe using Google community mobility reports (CMR) data. Through multi-dimensional visualization, we are able to compare the reduction in mobility from the different lockdown periods for each locality selected, simultaneously considering multiple place categories provided in CMR. In addition, our analysis comprises a 56-day lockdown period for each locality and COVID-19 wave, which we analyze both as 56-day periods and as 14-day consecutive windows.

METHODS

We use locality-wise calibrated CMR data, which we process through seasonal-trend decomposition by LOESS (STL) to isolate trend from seasonal and noise effects. We scale trend data to draw Pareto-compliant conclusions using radar charts. For each temporal granularity considered, data for a given place category is aggregated using the area under the curve (AUC) approach.

RESULTS

In general, reduction rates observed during the first wave were much higher than during the second. Alarmingly, December holiday season mobility in some of the localities reached pre-pandemic levels for some of the place categories reported. Manaus was the only locality where second wave mobility was nearly as reduced as during the first wave, likely due to the P1 variant outbreak and oxygen supply crisis.

The Impact of COVID-19 on the Optimal Management of Osteoporosis

Osteoporosis does not take a break while Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) stunned and overtook everyone’s lives. Medical resources were immediately shifted, self-isolation and telemedicine were expanded, ambulatory care services such as bone densitometry and osteoporosis-centered clinics came to a near halt. Progress with fracture prevention has been challenged because osteoporotic fracture with low energy injury is more prevalent even though restriction of people’s movement. Thus we must re-engage with chronic bone health concerns and fracture prevention. This review discusses challenges in management of osteoporosis during the COVID-19 pandemic and reinforces the need to implementing recommendations concerning the importance of bone fragility care with at least those patients who are already treated with antiosteoporotic drugs maintaining their adherence to treatments.

Online psychological counselling during lockdown reduces anxiety symptoms and negative affect: Insights from Italian framework

Several studies have shown how COrona VIrus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and the consequent isolation and quarantine measures could affect physical and mental well-being. Therefore, the increased request for support and assistance represents a critical challenge for clinicians requiring a reorganization of care systems. In this regard, online counselling has been identified as a useful tool in providing psychological assistance and support. Thus, the main purpose of the current study was to investigate the clinical usefulness of a single online counselling session in reducing psychopathological symptoms (i.e., state anxiety and negative affect) and increasing individual well-being and positive affect during the first Italian lockdown. Fifty-three subjects were enrolled and randomly assigned to receive an online counselling session [Online Counselling Group (OCG) = 26] or to act as controls [Waiting List Group (WLG) = 27]. In the post-assessment, compared to WLG, the OCG showed a significant decrease in negative affect (18.04 ± 6.30 vs. 30.26 ± 8.61; F_1:47  = 29.45; p < .001; d_ppc2  = .92) and state anxiety (36.65 ± 8.35 vs. 48.04 ± 11.51; F_1:47  = 17.86; p < .001; d_ppc2  = .49). Taking into account the cyclical nature of COVID-19, with the possibility of new peaks and waves, it would be appropriate to consider the versatility and usefulness of online psychological counselling in the management of COVID-19-related distress.

Surveillance of the Second Wave of COVID-19 in Europe: Longitudinal Trend Analyses

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted Europe, resulting in a high caseload and deaths that varied by country. The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has breached the borders of Europe. Public health surveillance is necessary to inform policy and guide leaders.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to provide advanced surveillance metrics for COVID-19 transmission that account for weekly shifts in the pandemic, speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence, to better understand countries at risk for explosive growth and those that are managing the pandemic effectively.

METHODS

We performed a longitudinal trend analysis and extracted 62 days of COVID-19 data from public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in Europe as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R.

RESULTS

New COVID-19 cases slightly decreased from 158,741 (week 1, January 4-10, 2021) to 152,064 (week 2, January 11-17, 2021), and cumulative cases increased from 22,507,271 (week 1) to 23,890,761 (week 2), with a weekly increase of 1,383,490 between January 10 and January 17. France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom had the largest 7-day moving averages for new cases during week 1. During week 2, the 7-day moving average for France and Spain increased. From week 1 to week 2, the speed decreased (37.72 to 33.02 per 100,000), acceleration decreased (0.39 to -0.16 per 100,000), and jerk increased (-1.30 to 1.37 per 100,000).

CONCLUSIONS

The United Kingdom, Spain, and Portugal, in particular, are at risk for a rapid expansion in COVID-19 transmission. An examination of the European region suggests that there was a decrease in the COVID-19 caseload between January 4 and January 17, 2021. Unfortunately, the rates of jerk, which were negative for Europe at the beginning of the month, reversed course and became positive, despite decreases in speed and acceleration. Finally, the 7-day persistence rate was higher during week 2 than during week 1. These measures indicate that the second wave of the pandemic may be subsiding, but some countries remain at risk for new outbreaks and increased transmission in the absence of rapid policy responses.

Super-rapid race for saving lives by developing COVID-19 vaccines

The pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has affected millions of people and claimed thousands of lives. Starting in China, it is arguably the most precipitous global health calamity of modern times. The entire world has rocked back to fight against the disease and the COVID-19 vaccine is the prime weapon. Even though the conventional vaccine development pipeline usually takes more than a decade, the escalating daily death rates due to COVID-19 infections have resulted in the development of fast-track strategies to bring in the vaccine under a year’s time. Governments, companies, and universities have networked to pool resources and have come up with a number of vaccine candidates. Also, international consortia have emerged to address the distribution of successful candidates. Herein, we summarize these unprecedented developments in vaccine science and discuss the types of COVID-19 vaccines, their developmental strategies, and their roles as well as their limitations.

SARS-CoV-2 Wave Two Surveillance in East Asia and the Pacific: Longitudinal Trend Analysis

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound global impact on governments, health care systems, economies, and populations around the world. Within the East Asia and Pacific region, some countries have mitigated the spread of the novel coronavirus effectively and largely avoided severe negative consequences, while others still struggle with containment. As the second wave reaches East Asia and the Pacific, it becomes more evident that additional SARS-CoV-2 surveillance is needed to track recent shifts, rates of increase, and persistence associated with the pandemic.

Objective

The goal of this study is to provide advanced surveillance metrics for COVID-19 transmission that account for speed, acceleration, jerk, persistence, and weekly shifts, to better understand country risk for explosive growth and those countries who are managing the pandemic successfully. Existing surveillance coupled with our dynamic metrics of transmission will inform health policy to control the COVID-19 pandemic until an effective vaccine is developed. We provide novel indicators to measure disease transmission.

Methods

Using a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted 330 days of COVID-19 data from public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in East Asia and the Pacific as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R.

Results

The standard surveillance metrics for Indonesia, the Philippines, and Myanmar were concerning as they had the largest new caseloads at 4301, 2588, and 1387, respectively. When looking at the acceleration of new COVID-19 infections, we found that French Polynesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines had rates at 3.17, 0.22, and 0.06 per 100,000. These three countries also ranked highest in terms of jerk at 15.45, 0.10, and 0.04, respectively.

Conclusions

Two of the most populous countries in East Asia and the Pacific, Indonesia and the Philippines, have alarming surveillance metrics. These two countries rank highest in new infections in the region. The highest rates of speed, acceleration, and positive upwards jerk belong to French Polynesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines, and may result in explosive growth. While all countries in East Asia and the Pacific need to be cautious about reopening their countries since outbreaks are likely to occur in the second wave of COVID-19, the country of greatest concern is the Philippines. Based on standard and enhanced surveillance, the Philippines has not gained control of the COVID-19 epidemic, which is particularly troubling because the country ranks 4th in population in the region. Without extreme and rigid social distancing, quarantines, hygiene, and masking to reverse trends, the Philippines will remain on the global top 5 list of worst COVID-19 outbreaks resulting in high morbidity and mortality. The second wave will only exacerbate existing conditions and increase COVID-19 transmissions.

Keeping the lights on: Telehealth, testing, and 6-month outcomes for orthotopic liver transplantation during the COVID-19 pandemic

Background

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has seen transplant volume decrease nationwide, resulting in a 2.2-fold increase in waitlist mortality. In particular, solid organ transplant patients are subjected to increased morbidity and mortality from infection. In the face of these challenges, transplant centers need to develop innovative protocols to ensure high-quality care.

Methods

A multidisciplinary protocol was developed that included the following: virtual selection meetings, coronavirus disease 2019 negative donors, pretransplant symptom screening, rapid testing on presentation, telehealth follow-up, and weekly community outreach town halls. All orthotopic liver transplants completed between January 2018 and August 2020 were included in the study (n = 344). The cohort was stratified from January 2018 to February 2020 as “pre-COVID-19,” and from March 2020 to August 2020 as “COVID-19.” Patient demographics and postoperative outcomes were compared.

Results

From March 2020 to August 2020, there was a significant decrease in average monthly referrals for orthotopic liver transplantation (29.8 vs 37.1, P = .01). However, listings (11.0 vs 14.3, P = .09) and transplant volume remained unchanged (12.2 vs 10.6, P = .26). Rapid testing was utilized on arrival for transplant, zero patients tested positively preoperatively, and median time from test result until abdominal incision was 4.5 h [interquartile range, 1.2, 9.2]. Simultaneously, telehealth visits increased rapidly, peaking at 85% of all visits. It is important to note that there was no difference in outcomes between cohorts.

Conclusion

Orthotopic liver transplant can be accomplished safely and effectively in the COVID-19 era without compromising outcomes through increasing utilization of telehealth, rapid COVID-19 testing, and multidisciplinary protocols for managing immunosuppressed patients.

Geospatial dynamics of COVID-19 clusters and hotspots in Bangladesh

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an emerging and rapidly evolving profound pandemic, which causes severe acute respiratory syndrome and results in significant case fatality around the world including Bangladesh. We conducted this study to assess how COVID-19 cases clustered across districts in Bangladesh and whether the pattern and duration of clusters changed following the country's containment strategy using Geographic information system (GIS) software. We calculated the epidemiological measures including incidence, case fatality rate (CFR) and spatiotemporal pattern of COVID-19. We used inverse distance weighting (IDW), Geographically weighted regression (GWR), Moran's I and Getis-Ord Gi* statistics for prediction, spatial autocorrelation and hotspot identification. We used retrospective space-time scan statistic to analyse clusters of COVID-19 cases. COVID-19 has a CFR of 1.4%. Over 50% of cases were reported among young adults (21-40 years age). The incidence varies from 0.03 - 0.95 at the end of March to 15.59-308.62 per 100,000, at the end of July. Global Moran's Index indicates a robust spatial autocorrelation of COVID-19 cases. Local Moran's I analysis stated a distinct High-High (HH) clustering of COVID-19 cases among Dhaka, Gazipur and Narayanganj districts. Twelve statistically significant high rated clusters were identified by space-time scan statistics using a discrete Poisson model. IDW predicted the cases at the undetermined area, and GWR showed a strong relationship between population density and case frequency, which was further established with Moran's I (0.734; p ≤ 0.01). Dhaka and its surrounding six districts were identified as the significant hotspot whereas Chattogram was an extended infected area, indicating the gradual spread of the virus to peripheral districts. This study provides novel insights into the geostatistical analysis of COVID-19 clusters and hotspots that might assist the policy planner to predict the spatiotemporal transmission dynamics and formulate imperative control strategies of SARS-CoV-2 in Bangladesh. The geospatial modeling tools can be used to prevent and control future epidemics and pandemics.