An Eye on the Future of COVID-19: Prediction of Likely Positive Cases and Fatality in India over a 30-Day Horizon Using the Prophet Model

Simple mathematical model for predicting COVID-19 outbreaks in Japan based on epidemic waves with a cyclical trend

BACKGROUND

Several models have been used to predict outbreaks during the COVID-19 pandemic, with limited success. We developed a simple mathematical model to accurately predict future epidemic waves.

METHODS

We used data from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan for newly confirmed COVID-19 cases. COVID-19 case data were summarized as weekly data, and epidemic waves were visualized and identified. The periodicity of COVID-19 in each prefecture of Japan was confirmed using time-series analysis and the autocorrelation coefficient, which was used to investigate the longer-term pattern of COVID-19 cases. Outcomes using the autocorrelation coefficient were visualized via a correlogram to capture the periodicity of the data. An algorithm for a simple prediction model of the seventh COVID-19 wave in Japan comprised three steps. Step 1: machine learning techniques were used to depict the regression lines for each epidemic wave, denoting the "rising trend line"; Step 2: an exponential function with good fit was identified from data of rising straight lines up to the sixth wave, and the timing of the rise of the seventh wave and speed of its spread were calculated; Step 3: a logistic function was created using the values calculated in Step 2 as coefficients to predict the seventh wave. The accuracy of the model in predicting the seventh wave was confirmed using data up to the sixth wave.

RESULTS

Up to March 31, 2023, the correlation coefficient value was approximately 0.5, indicating significant periodicity. The spread of COVID-19 in Japan was repeated in a cycle of approximately 140 days. Although there was a slight lag in the starting and peak times in our predicted seventh wave compared with the actual epidemic, our developed prediction model had a fairly high degree of accuracy.

CONCLUSION

Our newly developed prediction model based on the rising trend line could predict COVID-19 outbreaks up to a few months in advance with high accuracy. The findings of the present study warrant further investigation regarding application to emerging infectious diseases other than COVID-19 in which the epidemic wave has high periodicity.

The impact of community of inquiry and self-efficacy on student attitudes in sustained remote health professions learning environments

BACKGROUND

Sustained remote learning environments, like those experienced in late 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, share characteristics with online courses but were not intentionally designed to delivered virtually. The purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of Community of Inquiry, a widely used online learning environment framework, and self-efficacy on perceived student attitudes within sustained remote learning environments.

METHODS

An interinstitutional team of health professions education researchers collected survey data from 205 students representing a wide range of health professions in five U.S. institutions. Latent mediation models under structural equation modeling framework were used to examine whether student self-efficacy mediates the relationship between Community of Inquiry presence and student's favorability of sustained remote learning delivered in the prolonged stages of the COVID-19 pandemic.

RESULTS

Higher levels of teaching presence and social presence in the remote learning environment were associated with higher levels of remote learning self-efficacy which, in turn, predicts variance in positive attitudes toward remote learning. When mediated by self-efficacy, significant variance in student's favorability of sustained remote learning was explained by teaching presence (61%), social presence (64%), and cognitive presence (88%) and self-efficacy. Significant direct and indirect effects for teaching and social presence, and only direct effects for cognitive presence were observed.

CONCLUSIONS

This study establishes the Community of Inquiry and its three presence types as a relevant and stable framework for investigating sustained remote health professions teaching and learning environments, not only carefully designed online learning environments. Faculty may focus course design strategies which enhance presence and increase student self-efficacy for the sustained remote learning environment.

Estimating long-term and short-term impact of COVID-19 activity restriction on regional highway traffic demand: A case study in Zhejiang Province, China

Since the outbreak of COVID-19 in China in late 2019, government administrators have implemented traffic restriction policies to prevent the spread of COVID-19. However, highway traffic volumes obtained from ETC data in some provinces did not return to the levels of previous years after the end of the traffic restriction policy, suggesting that traffic restriction policy may have long-term effects. This paper proposed a method that analyzes traffic restriction policies' long-term and short-term impact on highway traffic volume under COVID-19. This method first analyzes the long-term and short-term impacts of traffic restriction policies on the highway traffic volume using the Prophet model combined with the concept of traffic volume loss. It further investigates the relationship between COVID-19 cases and the long-term and short-term impacts of the traffic restriction policy using Granger causality and the impulse response function of the Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) model. The results showed that during the COVID-19 pandemic, highway traffic in Zhejiang Province decreased by about 95.5%, and the short-term impact of COVID-19 cases was most pronounced on the second day. However, the long-term effects were relatively small when the traffic restriction policy ended and was verified by data from other provinces. These results will provide decision support for traffic management and provide recommendations for future traffic impact assessments in the event of similar epidemics.

A Combined Model of SARIMA and Prophet Models in Forecasting AIDS Incidence in Henan Province, China

Acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) is a serious public health problem. This study aims to establish a combined model of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and Prophet models based on an L1-norm to predict the incidence of AIDS in Henan province, China. The monthly incidences of AIDS in Henan province from 2012 to 2020 were obtained from the Health Commission of Henan Province. A SARIMA model, a Prophet model, and two combined models were adopted to fit the monthly incidence of AIDS using the data from January 2012 to December 2019. The data from January 2020 to December 2020 was used to verify. The mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were used to compare the prediction effect among the models. The results showed that the monthly incidence fluctuated from 0.05 to 0.50 per 100,000 individuals, and the monthly incidence of AIDS had a certain periodicity in Henan province. In addition, the prediction effect of the Prophet model was better than SARIMA model, the combined model was better than the single models, and the combined model based on the L1-norm had the best effect values (MSE = 0.0056, MAE = 0.0553, MAPE = 43.5337). This indicated that, compared with the L2-norm, the L1-norm improved the prediction accuracy of the combined model. The combined model of SARIMA and Prophet based on the L1-norm is a suitable method to predict the incidence of AIDS in Henan. Our findings can provide theoretical evidence for the government to formulate policies regarding AIDS prevention.

The forecast of COVID-19 spread risk at the county level

The early detection of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak is important to save people's lives and restart the economy quickly and safely. People's social behavior, reflected in their mobility data, plays a major role in spreading the disease. Therefore, we used the daily mobility data aggregated at the county level beside COVID-19 statistics and demographic information for short-term forecasting of COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States. The daily data are fed to a deep learning model based on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) to predict the accumulated number of COVID-19 cases in the next two weeks. A significant average correlation was achieved (r=0.83 (p = 0.005)) between the model predicted and actual accumulated cases in the interval from August 1, 2020 until January 22, 2021. The model predictions had r > 0.7 for 87% of the counties across the United States. A lower correlation was reported for the counties with total cases of <1000 during the test interval. The average mean absolute error (MAE) was 605.4 and decreased with a decrease in the total number of cases during the testing interval. The model was able to capture the effect of government responses on COVID-19 cases. Also, it was able to capture the effect of age demographics on the COVID-19 spread. It showed that the average daily cases decreased with a decrease in the retiree percentage and increased with an increase in the young percentage. Lessons learned from this study not only can help with managing the COVID-19 pandemic but also can help with early and effective management of possible future pandemics. The code used for this study was made publicly available on https://github.com/Murtadha44/covid-19-spread-risk.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40537-021-00491-1.

Intelligent Platform Based on Smart PPE for Safety in Workplaces

It is estimated that we spend one-third of our lives at work. It is therefore vital to adapt traditional equipment and systems used in the working environment to the new technological paradigm so that the industry is connected and, at the same time, workers are as safe and protected as possible. Thanks to Smart Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) and wearable technologies, information about the workers and their environment can be extracted to reduce the rate of accidents and occupational illness, leading to a significant improvement. This article proposes an architecture that employs three pieces of PPE: a helmet, a bracelet and a belt, which process the collected information using artificial intelligence (AI) techniques through edge computing. The proposed system guarantees the workers’ safety and integrity through the early prediction and notification of anomalies detected in their environment. Models such as convolutional neural networks, long short-term memory, Gaussian Models were joined by interpreting the information with a graph, where different heuristics were used to weight the outputs as a whole, where finally a support vector machine weighted the votes of the models with an area under the curve of 0.81.