Spatial clustering and longitudinal variation of Anopheles darlingi (Diptera: Culicidae) larvae in a river of the Amazon: the importance of the forest fringe and of obstructions to flow in frontier malaria

Impact of climate and land use/land cover changes on malaria incidence in the Ecuadorian Amazon

Malaria transmission is influenced by climate and land use/land cover change (LULC). This study examines the impact of climate and LULC on malaria risk in the Ecuadorian Amazon. Weekly malaria surveillance data between 2008 and 2019 from Ecuador's Ministry of Public Health were combined with hydrometeorological and LULC data. Cross-correlation analyses identified time lags. Bayesian spatiotemporal models estimated annual LULC rates of change (ARC) by census area and assessed the effects on Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum incidence. ARC for the five land cover classes (forest, agriculture, urban, shrub vegetation, water) ranged from -1 to 4% with agriculture increasing across areas. Forest and shrub vegetation ARC were significantly associated with both Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum. Temperature and terrestrial water content showed consistent negative relationships with both species. Precipitation had varying effects on Plasmodium vivax (null) and Plasmodium falciparum (increase) incidence. Shrubs and forest expansion, increased temperature, and terrestrial water content reduced malaria incidence, while increased precipitation had varying effects. Relationships between malaria, LULC, and climate are complex, influencing risk profiles. These findings aid decision-making and guide further research in the region.

Differing taxonomic responses of mosquito vectors to anthropogenic land-use change in Latin America and the Caribbean

Anthropogenic land-use change, such as deforestation and urban development, can affect the emergence and re-emergence of mosquito-borne diseases, e.g., dengue and malaria, by creating more favourable vector habitats. There has been a limited assessment of how mosquito vectors respond to land-use changes, including differential species responses, and the dynamic nature of these responses. Improved understanding could help design effective disease control strategies. We compiled an extensive dataset of 10,244 Aedes and Anopheles mosquito abundance records across multiple land-use types at 632 sites in Latin America and the Caribbean. Using a Bayesian mixed effects modelling framework to account for between-study differences, we compared spatial differences in the abundance and species richness of mosquitoes across multiple land-use types, including agricultural and urban areas. Overall, we found that mosquito responses to anthropogenic land-use change were highly inconsistent, with pronounced responses observed at the genus- and species levels. There were strong declines in Aedes (-26%) and Anopheles (-35%) species richness in urban areas, however certain species such as Aedes aegypti, thrived in response to anthropogenic disturbance. When abundance records were coupled with remotely sensed forest loss data, we detected a strong positive response of dominant and secondary malaria vectors to recent deforestation. This highlights the importance of the temporal dynamics of land-use change in driving disease risk and the value of large synthetic datasets for understanding changing disease risk with environmental change.

Little noticed, but very important: The role of breeding sites formed by bamboos in maintaining the diversity of mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Atlantic Forest biome

This study investigated the composition of mosquito species in different kinds of breeding sites in a tropical forest remnant of the Atlantic Forest and identified species of public health concern therein. Collections of immature forms of mosquitoes were carried out monthly at the Poço das Antas Biological Reserve in southeastern Brazil, between June 2014 and June 2015. Samples were collected from four types of breeding sites: bamboos, bromeliads, puddles, and a lake. A total of 1,182 specimens of mosquitoes belonging to 28 species and 13 genera were collected. Three species, Ad. squamipennis, An. neglectus, and Wy. arthrostigma represented 64.8% of the captured specimens. Only three species were found in more than one type of breeding site: Ps. ferox, An. triannulatus, and Tx. trichopygus. Two species of public health concern were found breeding in bamboo (Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus) and one in the lake (An. darlingi). Bamboo had the highest species richness, Shannon diversity, abundance of individuals and number of dominant species of all breeding sites. Similar Simpson diversity was obtained for bamboo and bromeliads, with higher values than those obtained for puddles and the lake. The significance of the four breeding sites, especially bamboos, is discussed in the context of controlling populations of sylvatic species of mosquitoes in Atlantic Forest areas.

Larval habitats, species composition and distribution of malaria vectors in regions with autochthonous and imported malaria in Roraima state, Brazil

Background

Malaria control requires local action. Assessing the vector diversity and abundance provides information on the local malariogenic potential or risk of transmission. This study aimed to determine the Anopheles species composition, habitats, seasonal occurrence, and distribution in areas with autochthonous and imported malaria cases in Roraima State.

Methods

A longitudinal study was conducted from January 2017 to October 2018, sampling larvae and adult mosquitoes in three municipalities of Roraima State: Boa Vista, Pacaraima and São João da Baliza. These areas have different risks of malaria importation. Four to six mosquito larval habitats were selected for larval sampling at each municipality, along with two additional sites for adult mosquito collection. All larval habitats were surveyed every two months using a standardized larval sampling methodology and MosqTent for adult mosquitoes.

Results

A total of 544 Anopheles larvae and 1488 adult mosquitoes were collected from the three municipalities studied. Although the species abundance differed between municipalities, the larvae of Anopheles albitarsis s.l., Anopheles nuneztovari s.l. and Anopheles triannulatus s.l. were collected from all larval habitats studied while Anopheles darlingi were collected only from Boa Vista and São João da Baliza. Adults of 11 species of the genus Anopheles were collected, and the predominant species in Boa Vista was An. albitarsis (88.2%) followed by An. darlingi (6.9%), while in São João da Baliza, An. darlingi (85.6%) was the most predominant species followed by An. albitarsis s.l. (9.2%). In contrast, the most abundant species in Pacaraima was Anopheles braziliensis (62%), followed by Anopheles peryassui (18%). Overall, the majority of anophelines exhibited greater extradomicile than peridomicile-biting preference. Anopheles darlingi was the only species found indoors. Variability in biting times was observed among species and municipalities.

Conclusion

This study revealed the composition of anopheline species and habitats in Boa Vista, Pacaraima and São João da Baliza. The species sampled differed in their behaviour with only An. darlingi being found indoors. Anopheles darlingi appeared to be the most important vector in São João da Baliza, an area of autochthonous malaria, and An. albitarsis s.l. and An. braziliensis in areas of low transmission, although there were increasing reports of imported malaria. Understanding the diversity of vector species and their ecology is essential for designing effective vector control strategies for these municipalities.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12936-021-04033-1.

Integrating Parasitological and Entomological Observations to Understand Malaria Transmission in Riverine Villages in the Peruvian Amazon

BACKGROUND

Remote rural riverine villages account for most of the reported malaria cases in the Peruvian Amazon. As transmission decreases due to intensive standard control efforts, malaria strategies in these villages will need to be more focused and adapted to local epidemiology.

METHODS

By integrating parasitological, entomological, and environmental observations between January 2016 and June 2017, we provided an in-depth characterization of malaria transmission dynamics in 4 riverine villages of the Mazan district, Loreto department.

RESULTS

Despite variation across villages, malaria prevalence by polymerase chain reaction in March 2016 was high (>25% in 3 villages), caused by Plasmodium vivax mainly and composed of mostly submicroscopic infections. Housing without complete walls was the main malaria risk factor, while households close to forest edges were more commonly identified as spatial clusters of malaria prevalence. Villages in the basin of the Mazan River had a higher density of adult Anopheles darlingi mosquitoes, and retained higher prevalence and incidence rates compared to villages in the basin of the Napo River despite test-and-treat interventions.

CONCLUSIONS

High heterogeneity in malaria transmission was found across and within riverine villages, resulting from interactions between the microgeographic landscape driving diverse conditions for vector development, housing structure, and human behavior.

Ecology and larval population dynamics of the primary malaria vector Nyssorhynchus darlingi in a high transmission setting dominated by fish farming in western Amazonian Brazil

Vale do Rio Juruá in western Acre, Brazil, is a persistent malaria transmission hotspot partly due to fish farming development that was encouraged to improve local standards of living. Fish ponds can be productive breeding sites for Amazonian malaria vector species, including Nyssorhynchus darlingi, which, combined with high human density and mobility, add to the local malaria burden.This study reports entomological profile of immature and adult Ny. darlingi at three sites in Mâncio Lima, Acre, during the rainy and dry season (February to September, 2017). From 63 fishponds, 10,859 larvae were collected, including 5,512 first-instar Anophelinae larvae and 4,927 second, third and fourth-instars, of which 8.5% (n = 420) were Ny. darlingi. This species was most abundant in not-abandoned fishponds and in the presence of emerging aquatic vegetation. Seasonal analysis of immatures in urban landscapes found no significant difference in the numbers of Ny. darlingi, corresponding to equivalent population density during the rainy to dry transition period. However, in the rural landscape, significantly higher numbers of Ny. darlingi larvae were collected in August (IRR = 5.80, p = 0.037) and September (IRR = 6.62, p = 0.023) (dry season), compared to February (rainy season), suggesting important role of fishponds for vector population maintenance during the seasonal transition in this landscape type. Adult sampling detected mainly Ny. darlingi (~93%), with similar outdoor feeding behavior, but different abundance according to landscape profile: urban site 1 showed higher peaks of human biting rate in May (46 bites/person/hour), than February (4) and September (15), while rural site 3 shows similar HBR during the same sampling period (22, 24 and 21, respectively). This study contributes to a better understanding of the larvae biology of the main malaria vector in the Vale do Rio Juruá region and, ultimately will support vector control efforts.

Malaria transmission in landscapes with varying deforestation levels and timelines in the Amazon: a longitudinal spatiotemporal study

The relationship between deforestation and malaria is a spatiotemporal process of variation in Plasmodium incidence in human-dominated Amazonian rural environments. The present study aimed to assess the underlying mechanisms of malarial exposure risk at a fine scale in 5-km2 sites across the Brazilian Amazon, using field-collected data with a longitudinal spatiotemporally structured approach. Anopheline mosquitoes were sampled from 80 sites to investigate the Plasmodium infection rate in mosquito communities and to estimate the malaria exposure risk in rural landscapes. The remaining amount of forest cover (accumulated deforestation) and the deforestation timeline were estimated in each site to represent the main parameters of both the frontier malaria hypothesis and an alternate scenario, the deforestation-malaria hypothesis, proposed herein. The maximum frequency of pathogenic sites occurred at the intermediate forest cover level (50% of accumulated deforestation) at two temporal deforestation peaks, e.g., 10 and 35 years after the beginning of the organization of a settlement. The incidence density of infected anophelines in sites where the original forest cover decreased by more than 50% in the first 25 years of settlement development was at least twice as high as the incidence density calculated for the other sites studied (adjusted incidence density ratio = 2.25; 95% CI, 1.38-3.68; p = 0.001). The results of this study support the frontier malaria as a unifying hypothesis for explaining malaria emergence and for designing specific control interventions in the Brazilian Amazon.

Anthropogenic landscape decreases mosquito biodiversity and drives malaria vector proliferation in the Amazon rainforest

Inter-relationships among mosquito vectors, Plasmodium parasites, human ecology, and biotic and abiotic factors, drive malaria risk. Specifically, rural landscapes shaped by human activities have a great potential to increase the abundance of malaria vectors, putting many vulnerable people at risk. Understanding at which point the abundance of vectors increases in the landscape can help to design policies and interventions for effective and sustainable control. Using a dataset of adult female mosquitoes collected at 79 sites in malaria endemic areas in the Brazilian Amazon, this study aimed to (1) verify the association among forest cover percentage (PLAND), forest edge density (ED), and variation in mosquito diversity; and to (2) test the hypothesis of an association between landscape structure (i.e., PLAND and ED) and Nyssorhynchus darlingi (Root) dominance. Mosquito collections were performed employing human landing catch (HLC) (peridomestic habitat) and Shannon trap combined with HLC (forest fringe habitat). Nyssorhynchus darlingi abundance was used as the response variable in a generalized linear mixed model, and the Shannon diversity index (H') of the Culicidae community, PLAND, and the distance house-water drainage were used as predictors. Three ED categories were also used as random effects. A path analysis was used to understand comparative strengths of direct and indirect relationships among Amazon vegetation classes, Culicidae community, and Ny. darlingi abundance. Our results demonstrate that Ny. darlingi is negatively affected by H´ and PLAND of peridomestic habitat, and that increasing these variables (one-unit value at β0 = 768) leads to a decrease of 226 (P < 0.001) and 533 (P = 0.003) individuals, respectively. At the forest fringe, a similar result was found for H' (β1 = -218; P < 0.001) and PLAND (β1 = -337; P = 0.04). Anthropogenic changes in the Amazon vegetation classes decreased mosquito biodiversity, leading to increased Ny. darlingi abundance. Changes in landscape structure, specifically decreases in PLAND and increases in ED, led to Ny. darlingi becoming the dominant species, increasing malaria risk. Ecological mechanisms involving changes in landscape and mosquito species composition can help to understand changes in the epidemiology of malaria.

Mapping malaria seasonality in Madagascar using health facility data

BACKGROUND

Many malaria-endemic areas experience seasonal fluctuations in case incidence as Anopheles mosquito and Plasmodium parasite life cycles respond to changing environmental conditions. Identifying location-specific seasonality characteristics is useful for planning interventions. While most existing maps of malaria seasonality use fixed thresholds of rainfall, temperature, and/or vegetation indices to identify suitable transmission months, we construct a statistical modelling framework for characterising the seasonal patterns derived directly from monthly health facility data.

METHODS

With data from 2669 of the 3247 health facilities in Madagascar, a spatiotemporal regression model was used to estimate seasonal patterns across the island. In the absence of catchment population estimates or the ability to aggregate to the district level, this focused on the monthly proportions of total annual cases by health facility level. The model was informed by dynamic environmental covariates known to directly influence seasonal malaria trends. To identify operationally relevant characteristics such as the transmission start months and associated uncertainty measures, an algorithm was developed and applied to model realisations. A seasonality index was used to incorporate burden information from household prevalence surveys and summarise 'how seasonal' locations are relative to their surroundings.

RESULTS

Positive associations were detected between monthly case proportions and temporally lagged covariates of rainfall and temperature suitability. Consistent with the existing literature, model estimates indicate that while most parts of Madagascar experience peaks in malaria transmission near March-April, the eastern coast experiences an earlier peak around February. Transmission was estimated to start in southeast districts before southwest districts, suggesting that indoor residual spraying should be completed in the same order. In regions where the data suggested conflicting seasonal signals or two transmission seasons, estimates of seasonal features had larger deviations and therefore less certainty.

CONCLUSIONS

Monthly health facility data can be used to establish seasonal patterns in malaria burden and augment the information provided by household prevalence surveys. The proposed modelling framework allows for evidence-based and cohesive inferences on location-specific seasonal characteristics. As health surveillance systems continue to improve, it is hoped that more of such data will be available to improve our understanding and planning of intervention strategies.

Evidence for family-level variation of phenotypic traits in response to temperature of Brazilian Nyssorhynchus darlingi

BACKGROUND

Nyssorhynchus darlingi (also known as Anopheles darlingi) is the primary malaria vector in the Amazon River Basin. In Brazil, analysis of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) previously detected three major population clusters, and a common garden experiment in a laboratory setting revealed significant population variation in life history traits. Increasing temperatures and local level variation can affect life history traits, i.e. adult longevity, that alter vectorial capacity with implications for malaria transmission in Ny. darlingi.

METHODS

We investigated the population structure of Ny. darlingi from 7 localities across Brazil utilizing SNPs and compared them to a comprehensive Ny. darlingi catalog. To test the effects of local level variation on life history traits, we reared F1 progeny from the 7 localities at three constant temperatures (20, 24 and 28 °C), measuring key life history traits (larval development, food-starved adult lifespan, adult size and daily survival).

RESULTS

Using nextRAD genotyping-by-sequencing, 93 of the field-collected Ny. darlingi were genotyped at 33,759 loci. Results revealed three populations (K = 3), congruent with major biomes (Amazonia, Cerrado and Mata Atlântica), with greater FST values between biomes than within. In the life history experiments, increasing temperature reduced larval development time, adult lifespan, and wing length in all localities. The variation of family responses for all traits within four localities of the Amazonia biome was significant (ANOVA, P < 0.05). Individual families within localities revealed a range of responses as temperature increased, for larval development, adult lifespan, wing length and survival time.

CONCLUSIONS

SNP analysis of several Brazilian localities provided results in support of a previous study wherein populations of Ny. darlingi were clustered by three major Brazilian biomes. Our laboratory results of temperature effects demonstrated that population variation in life history traits of Ny. darlingi exists at the local level, supporting previous research demonstrating the high plasticity of this species. Understanding this plasticity and inherent variation between families of Ny. darlingi at the local level should be considered when deploying intervention strategies and may improve the likelihood of successful malaria elimination in South America.

Effect of deforestation on prevalence of avian haemosporidian parasites and mosquito abundance in a tropical rainforest of Cameroon

Habitat change caused by deforestation can modify the interactions of many biotic and abiotic factors, and in turn influence patterns of diseases in wild birds. Whether deforestation directly or indirectly affects the prevalence of avian haemosporidian parasites through their hosts and/or vectors is still not well understood. We sampled understory bird communities (insectivorous, frugivorous, granivorous and nectarivorous birds) and mosquitoes in three habitats showing a gradient of deforestation (pristine forest, fragmented forest, and young palm oil plantation), to assess the effects of habitat changes on avian haemosporidian (Plasmodium and Haemoproteus) prevalence and its relationship to bird feeding guilds and mosquito abundance. Blood samples of 845 individual birds belonging to 85 species and 27 families were collected in the three habitat types and screened using microscopy and PCR. Plasmodium infections were detected in 136 individuals (16.09%) and varied significantly among habitat types while Haemoproteus infections were detected in 98 individuals (11.60%) and did not vary significantly among habitat types. However, the prevalence of Plasmodium and Haemoproteus in bird feeding groups varied significantly among habitats. Nectarivorous and granivorous birds had the highest Plasmodium and Haemoproteus prevalence, respectively. The abundance of mosquitoes varied significantly among habitat types and the prevalence of Plasmodium significantly and positively correlated with mosquito abundance in fragmented forest. This study highlights the importance of host and mosquito determinants in the transmission dynamics of avian Plasmodium and Haemoproteus infections following habitat changes. Selective logging favored an increase in the prevalence of Plasmodium in insectivores, the prevalence of Haemoproteus in nectarivores and the abundance of female mosquitoes while, the establishment of the palm oil plantation favored an increase in the prevalence of Plasmodium in granivores and Haemoproteus in nectarivores. Species feeding behavior is also an important determinant to consider for a better understanding of patterns of parasite infections in a changing environment.

The Role of Ecological Linkage Mechanisms in Plasmodium knowlesi Transmission and Spread

Defining the linkages between landscape change, disease ecology and human health is essential to explain and predict the emergence of Plasmodium knowlesi malaria, a zoonotic parasite residing in Southeast Asian macaques, and transmitted by species of Anopheles mosquitos. Changing patterns of land use throughout Southeast Asia, particularly deforestation, are suggested to be the primary drivers behind the recent spread of this zoonotic parasite in humans. Local ecological changes at the landscape scale appear to be increasing the risk of disease in humans by altering the dynamics of transmission between the parasite and its primary hosts. This paper will focus on the emergence of P. knowlesi in humans in Malaysian Borneo and the ecological linkage mechanisms suggested to be playing an important role.

Malaria risk assessment and mapping using satellite imagery and boosted regression trees in the Peruvian Amazon

This is the first study to assess the risk of co-endemic Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum transmission in the Peruvian Amazon using boosted regression tree (BRT) models based on social and environmental predictors derived from satellite imagery and data. Yearly cross-validated BRT models were created to discriminate high-risk (annual parasite index API > 10 cases/1000 people) and very-high-risk for malaria (API > 50 cases/1000 people) in 2766 georeferenced villages of Loreto department, between 2010-2017 as other parts in the article (graphs, tables, and texts). Predictors were cumulative annual rainfall, forest coverage, annual forest loss, annual mean land surface temperature, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), normalized difference water index (NDWI), shortest distance to rivers, time to populated villages, and population density. BRT models built with predictor data of a given year efficiently discriminated the malaria risk for that year in villages (area under the ROC curve (AUC) > 0.80), and most models also effectively predicted malaria risk in the following year. Cumulative rainfall, population density and time to populated villages were consistently the top three predictors for both P. vivax and P. falciparum incidence. Maps created using the BRT models characterize the spatial distribution of the malaria incidence in Loreto and should contribute to malaria-related decision making in the area.

Comparison of malaria incidence rates and socioeconomic-environmental factors between the states of Acre and Rondônia: a spatio-temporal modelling study

BACKGROUND

Plasmodium falciparum malaria is a threat to public health, but Plasmodium vivax malaria is most prevalent in Latin America, where the incidence rate has been increasing since 2016, particularly in Venezuela and Brazil. The Brazilian Amazon reported 193,000 cases in 2017, which were mostly confirmed as P. vivax (~ 90%). Herein, the relationships among malaria incidence rates and the proportion of accumulated deforestation were contrasted using data from the states of Acre and Rondônia in the south-western Brazilian Amazon. The main purpose is to test the hypothesis that the observed difference in incidence rates is associated with the proportion of accumulated deforestation.

METHODS

An ecological study using spatial and temporal models for mapping and modelling malaria risk was performed. The municipalities of Acre and Rondônia were the spatial units of analysis, whereas month and year were the temporal units. The number of reported malaria cases from 2009 until 2015 were used to calculate the incidence rate per 1000 people at risk. Accumulated deforestation was calculated using publicly available satellite images. Geographically weighted regression was applied to provide a local model of the spatial heterogeneity of incidence rates. Time-series dynamic regression was applied to test the correlation of incidence rates and accumulated deforestation, adjusted by climate and socioeconomic factors.

RESULTS

The malaria incidence rate declined in Rondônia but remained stable in Acre. There was a high and positive correlation between the decline in malaria and higher proportions of accumulated deforestation in Rondônia. Geographically weighted regression showed a complex relationship. As deforestation increased, malaria incidence also increased in Acre, while as deforestation increased, malaria incidence decreased in Rondônia. Time-series dynamic regression showed a positive association between malaria incidence and precipitation and accumulated deforestation, whereas the association was negative with the human development index in the westernmost areas of Acre.

CONCLUSION

Landscape modification caused by accumulated deforestation is an important driver of malaria incidence in the Brazilian Amazon. However, this relationship is not linearly correlated because it depends on the overall proportion of the land covered by forest. For regions that are partially degraded, forest cover becomes a less representative component in the landscape, causing the abovementioned non-linear relationship. In such a scenario, accumulated deforestation can lead to a decline in malaria incidence.

Spatial spread of malaria and economic frontier expansion in the Brazilian Amazon

The temporal and spatial evolution of malaria was described for the postfrontier phase of the Brazilian Amazon in 2003–2013. The current ecological study aimed to understand the relationship between spatial population mobility and the distribution of malaria cases. The study identified epidemiologically relevant areas using regional statistical modeling and spatial analyses that considered differential infections and types of work activities. Annual parasite incidence (API) in the region was highest in hotspots along the Amazon River and in the south and west settlement zone of Hiléia, with concentrations in environmental protection areas and açaí and Brazil nut extraction areas. The dispersal force decreased in the Central Amazon due to rapid urbanization and improved socioeconomic conditions for workers in consolidated settlement areas. The study characterized the spatial patterns of disease transmission according to the economic activity and regionalization of geographic areas, confirming that the incidence of infection by work activity and labor flow is linked to extractive activities and agricultural settlements.

Malaria vector species in Amazonian Peru co-occur in larval habitats but have distinct larval microbial communities

In Amazonian Peru, the primary malaria vector, Nyssorhynchus darlingi (formerly Anopheles darlingi), is difficult to target using standard vector control methods because it mainly feeds and rests outdoors. Larval source management could be a useful supplementary intervention, but to determine its feasibility, more detailed studies on the larval ecology of Ny. darlingi are essential. We conducted a multi-level study of the larval ecology of Anophelinae mosquitoes in the peri-Iquitos region of Amazonian Peru, examining the environmental characteristics of the larval habitats of four species, comparing the larval microbiota among species and habitats, and placing Ny. darlingi larval habitats in the context of spatial heterogeneity in human malaria transmission. We collected Ny. darlingi, Nyssorhynchus rangeli (formerly Anopheles rangeli), Nyssorhynchus triannulatus s.l. (formerly Anopheles triannulatus s.l.), and Nyssorhynchus sp. nr. konderi (formerly Anopheles sp. nr. konderi) from natural and artificial water bodies throughout the rainy and dry seasons. We found that, consistent with previous studies in this region and in Brazil, the presence of Ny. darlingi was significantly associated with water bodies in landscapes with more recent deforestation and lower light intensity. Nyssorhynchus darlingi presence was also significantly associated with a lower vegetation index, other Anophelinae species, and emergent vegetation. Though they were collected in the same water bodies, the microbial communities of Ny. darlingi larvae were distinct from those of Ny. rangeli and Ny. triannulatus s.l., providing evidence either for a species-specific larval microbiome or for segregation of these species in distinct microhabitats within each water body. We demonstrated that houses with more reported malaria cases were located closer to Ny. darlingi larval habitats; thus, targeted control of these sites could help ameliorate malaria risk. The co-occurrence of Ny. darlingi larvae in water bodies with other putative malaria vectors increases the potential impact of larval source management in this region.

Vector competence, vectorial capacity of Nyssorhynchus darlingi and the basic reproduction number of Plasmodium vivax in agricultural settlements in the Amazonian Region of Brazil

Background

Brazilian malaria control programmes successfully reduced the incidence and mortality rates from 2005 to 2016. Since 2017, increased malaria has been reported across the Amazon. Few field studies focus on the primary malaria vector in high to moderate endemic areas, Nyssorhynchus darlingi, as the key entomological component of malaria risk, and on the metrics of Plasmodium vivax propagation in Amazonian rural communities.

Methods

Human landing catch collections were carried out in 36 houses of 26 communities in five municipalities in the Brazilian states of Acre, Amazonas and Rondônia states, with API (> 30). In addition, data on the number of locally acquired symptomatic infections were employed in mathematical modelling analyses carried out to determine Ny. darlingi vector competence and vectorial capacity to P. vivax; and to calculate the basic reproduction number for P. vivax.

Results

Entomological indices and malaria metrics ranged among localities: prevalence of P. vivax infection in Ny. darlingi, from 0.243% in Mâncio Lima, Acre to 3.96% in Machadinho D’Oeste, Rondônia; daily human-biting rate per person from 23 ± 1.18 in Cruzeiro do Sul, Acre, to 66 ± 2.41 in Lábrea, Amazonas; vector competence from 0.00456 in São Gabriel da Cachoeira, Amazonas to 0.04764 in Mâncio Lima, Acre; vectorial capacity from 0.0836 in Mâncio Lima, to 1.5 in Machadinho D’Oeste. The estimated R₀ for P. vivax (PvR₀) was 3.3 in Mâncio Lima, 7.0 in Lábrea, 16.8 in Cruzeiro do Sul, 55.5 in São Gabriel da Cachoeira, and 58.7 in Machadinho D’Oeste. Correlation between P. vivax prevalence in Ny. darlingi and vector competence was non-linear whereas association between prevalence of P. vivax in mosquitoes, vectorial capacity and R₀ was linear and positive.

Conclusions

In spite of low vector competence of Ny. darlingi to P. vivax, parasite propagation in the human population is enhanced by the high human-biting rate, and relatively high vectorial capacity. The high PvR₀ values suggest hyperendemicity in Machadinho D’Oeste and São Gabriel da Cachoeira at levels similar to those found for P. falciparum in sub-Saharan Africa regions. Mass screening for parasite reservoirs, effective anti-malarial drugs and vector control interventions will be necessary to shrinking transmission in Amazonian rural communities, Brazil.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12936-019-2753-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

A method for estimating the deforestation timeline in rural settlements in a scenario of malaria transmission in frontier expansion in the Amazon Region

The Malaria Frontier Hypothesis (MFH) is the current model for predicting malaria emergence in the Brazilian Amazon. It has two important dimensions, 'settlement time' and 'malaria incidence', and its prediction are: malaria incidence peaks five years after the initiation of human settlement and declines towards zero after an estimated 10 years. Although MFH is currently accepted, it has been challenged recently. Herein, we described a novel method for estimating settlement timeline by using remote sensing technology integrated in an open-software geographic information system. Surprisingly, we found that of the majority of the rural settlements with high malaria incidence are more than 10 years old.

Abundance of impacted forest patches less than 5 km2 is a key driver of the incidence of malaria in Amazonian Brazil

The precise role that deforestation for agricultural settlements and commercial forest products plays in promoting or inhibiting malaria incidence in Amazonian Brazil is controversial. Using publically available databases, we analyzed temporal malaria incidence (2009–2015) in municipalities of nine Amazonian states in relation to ecologically defined variables: (i) deforestation (rate of forest clearing over time); (ii) degraded forest (degree of human disturbance and openness of forest canopy for logging) and (iii) impacted forest (sum of deforested and degraded forest patches). We found that areas affected by one kilometer square of deforestation produced 27 new malaria cases (r² = 0.78; F1,10 = 35.81; P < 0.001). Unexpectedly, we found both a highly significant positive correlation between number of impacted forest patches less than 5 km² and malaria cases, and that these patch sizes accounted for greater than ~95% of all patches in the study area. There was a significantly negative correlation between extraction forestry economic indices and malaria cases. Our results emphasize not only that deforestation promotes malaria incidence, but also that it directly or indirectly results in a low Human Development Index, and favors environmental conditions that promote malaria vector proliferation.

Wetlands and Malaria in the Amazon: Guidelines for the Use of Synthetic Aperture Radar Remote-Sensing

The prevention and control of mosquito-borne diseases, such as malaria, are important health issues in tropical areas. Malaria transmission is a multi-scale process strongly controlled by environmental factors, and the use of remote-sensing data is suitable for the characterization of its spatial and temporal dynamics. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) is well-adapted to tropical areas, since it is capable of imaging independent of light and weather conditions. In this study, we highlight the contribution of SAR sensors in the assessment of the relationship between vectors, malaria and the environment in the Amazon region. More specifically, we focus on the SAR-based characterization of potential breeding sites of mosquito larvae, such as man-made water collections and natural wetlands, providing guidelines for the use of SAR capabilities and techniques in order to optimize vector control and malaria surveillance. In light of these guidelines, we propose a framework for the production of spatialized indicators and malaria risk maps based on the combination of SAR, entomological and epidemiological data to support malaria risk prevention and control actions in the field.

Does deforestation promote or inhibit malaria transmission in the Amazon? A systematic literature review and critical appraisal of current evidence

Considerable interest in the relationship between biodiversity and disease has recently captured the attention of the research community, with important public policy implications. In particular, malaria in the Amazon region is often cited as an example of how forest conservation can improve public health outcomes. However, despite a growing body of literature and an increased understanding of the relationship between malaria and land use / land cover change (LULC) in Amazonia, contradictions have emerged. While some studies report that deforestation increases malaria risk, others claim the opposite. Assessing malaria risk requires examination of dynamic processes among three main components: (i) the environment (i.e. LULC and landscape transformations), (ii) vector biology (e.g. mosquito species distributions, vector activity and life cycle, plasmodium infection rates), and (iii) human populations (e.g. forest-related activity, host susceptibility, movement patterns). In this paper, we conduct a systematic literature review on malaria risk and deforestation in the Amazon focusing on these three components. We explore key features that are likely to generate these contrasting results using the reviewed articles and our own data from Brazil and Peru, and conclude with suggestions for productive avenues in future research.

This article is part of the themed issue ‘Conservation, biodiversity and infectious disease: scientific evidence and policy implications'.

Spatial distribution and habitat characterization of mosquito species during the dry season along the Mara River and its tributaries, in Kenya and Tanzania

Background

Vector-borne diseases are increasingly becoming a major health problem among communities living along the major rivers of Africa. Although larger water bodies such as lakes and dams have been extensively researched, rivers and their tributaries have largely been ignored. This study sought to establish the spatial distribution of mosquito species during the dry season and further characterize their habitats along the Mara River and its tributaries.

Methods

In this cross-sectional survey, mosquito larvae were sampled along the Mara River, its two perennial tributaries (Amala and Nyangores), drying streams, and adjacent aquatic habitats (e.g. swamps, puddles that receive direct sunlight [open sunlit puddles], rock pools, hippo and livestock hoof prints, and vegetated pools). Each habitat was dipped 20 times using a standard dipper. Distance between breeding sites and human habitation was determined using global positioning system coordinates. The collected mosquito larvae were identified using standard taxonomic keys. Water physico-chemical parameters were measured in situ using a multiparameter meter. Mean mosquito larvae per habitat type were compared using analysis of variance and chi-square tests, while the relationship between mosquito larvae and physico-chemical parameters was evaluated using a generalized linear mixed model. The Cox-Stuart test was used to detect trends of mosquito larvae distribution. The test allowed for verification of monotonic tendency (rejection of null hypothesis of trend absence) and its variability.

Results

A total of 4001 mosquito larvae were collected, of which 2712 (67.8%) were collected from river/stream edge habitats and 1289 (32.2%) were sampled from aquatic habitats located in the terrestrial ecosystem about 50 m away from the main river/streams. Anopheles gambiae s.s, An. arabiensis, and An. funestus group, the three most potent vectors of malaria in Sub-Saharan Africa, together with other anopheline mosquitoes, were the most dominant mosquito species (70.3%), followed by Culex quinquefasciatus and Cx. pipiens complex combined (29.5%). Drying streams accounted for the highest number of larvae captured compared to the other habitat types. A stronger relationship between mosquito larvae abundance and dissolved oxygen (Z = 7.37, P ≤ 0.001), temperature (Z = 7.65, P ≤ 0.001), turbidity (Z = −5.25, P ≤ 0.001), and distance to the nearest human habitation (Z = 4.57, P ≤ 0.001), was observed.

Conclusions

Presence of malaria and non-malaria mosquito larvae within the Mara River basin calls for immediate action to curtail the insurgence of vector-borne diseases within the basin. A vector control program should be conducted during the dry period, targeting drying streams shown to produce the highest number of larval mosquitoes.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s40249-017-0385-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Environmental variables associated with anopheline larvae distribution and abundance in Yanomami villages within unaltered areas of the Brazilian Amazon

BACKGROUND

Many indigenous villages in the Amazon basin still suffer from a high malaria burden. Despite this health situation, there are few studies on the bionomics of anopheline larvae in such areas. This publication aims to identify the main larval habitats of the most abundant anopheline species and to assess their associations with some environmental factors.

METHODS

We conducted a 19-month longitudinal study from January 2013 to July 2014, sampling anopheline larvae in two indigenous Yanomami communities, comprised of four villages each. All natural larval habitats were surveyed every two months with a 350 ml manual dipper, following a standardized larval sampling methodology. In a third study area, we conducted two field expeditions in 2013 followed by four systematic collections during the long dry season of 2014-2015.

RESULTS

We identified 177 larval habitats in the three study areas, from which 9122 larvae belonging to 13 species were collected. Although species abundance differed between villages, An. oswaldoi (s.l.) was overall the most abundant species. Anopheles darlingi, An. oswaldoi (s.l.), An. triannulatus (s.s.) and An. mattogrossensis were primarily found in larval habitats that were partially or mostly sun-exposed. In contrast, An. costai-like and An. guarao-like mosquitoes were found in more shaded aquatic habitats. Anopheles darlingi was significantly associated with proximity to human habitations and larval habitats associated with river flood pulses and clear water.

CONCLUSIONS

This study of anopheline larvae in the Brazilian Yanomami area detected high heterogeneities at micro-scale levels regarding species occurrence and densities. Sun exposure was a major modulator of anopheline occurrence, particularly for An. darlingi. Lakes associated with the rivers, and particularly oxbow lakes, were the main larval habitats for An. darlingi and other secondary malaria vectors. The results of this study will serve as a basis to plan larval source management activities in remote indigenous communities of the Amazon, particularly for those located within low-order river-floodplain systems.

Disturbance and mosquito diversity in the lowland tropical rainforest of central Panama

The Intermediate Disturbance Hypothesis (IDH) is well-known in ecology providing an explanation for the role of disturbance in the coexistence of climax and colonist species. Here, we used the IDH as a framework to describe the role of forest disturbance in shaping the mosquito community structure, and to identify the ecological processes that increase the emergence of vector-borne disease. Mosquitoes were collected in central Panama at immature stages along linear transects in colonising, mixed and climax forest habitats, representing different levels of disturbance. Species were identified taxonomically and classified into functional categories (i.e., colonist, climax, disturbance-generalist, and rare). Using the Huisman-Olff-Fresco multi-model selection approach, IDH testing was done. We did not detect a unimodal relationship between species diversity and forest disturbance expected under the IDH; instead diversity peaked in old-growth forests. Habitat complexity and constraints are two mechanisms proposed to explain this alternative postulate. Moreover, colonist mosquito species were more likely to be involved in or capable of pathogen transmission than climax species. Vector species occurrence decreased notably in undisturbed forest settings. Old-growth forest conservation in tropical rainforests is therefore a highly-recommended solution for preventing new outbreaks of arboviral and parasitic diseases in anthropic environments.

Spatial and Seasonal Dynamics of Anopheles Mosquitoes in Saint-Georges de l'Oyapock, French Guiana: Influence of Environmental Factors

Little is known about the Anopheles fauna of Saint-Georges de l'Oyapock, a persistent malaria-endemic municipality in French Guiana. This study aimed to update the knowledge of local Anopheles diversity, and their ecology and role in malaria transmission. Sampling sessions were implemented between September 2013 and October 2014. Four species were identified from the 3,450 specimens collected: Anopheles darlingi Root, An. braziliensis, An. triannulatus s.l., and An. nuneztovari s.l. Anopheles darlingi was the predominant species. Its involvement in malaria transmission was suspected due to 1) its abundance, 2) the presence of a density peak during the malaria emergence period, and 3) a dynamic correlated with malaria cases observed two months later. Present and past studies show that the influence of environmental conditions on malaria vector dynamics is high, and may vary drastically according to the local context. This supports evidence that control strategies must be designed at fine scales.

Larval habitats of Anopheles species in a rural settlement on the malaria frontier of southwest Amazon, Brazil

Rural settlements are social arrangements expanding in the Amazon region, which generate disturbances in the natural environment, thus affecting the ecology of the species of Anopheles and thus the malaria transmission. Larval habitats are important sources for maintenance of mosquito vector populations, and holding back a natural watercourse is a usual process in the establishment of rural settlements, since the formation of micro-dams represents a water resource for the new settlers. Identifying characteristics of the larval habitats that may be associated with both the presence and abundance of Anopheles vectors species in an environment under ecological transition is background for planning vector control strategies in rural areas in the Amazon. Anopheles larvae collections were performed in two major types of habitats: natural and flow-limited water collections that were constructed by holding back the original watercourse. A total of 3123 Anopheles spp. larvae were captured in three field-sampling collections. The majority of the larvae identified were taken from flow-limited water collections belonged to species of the Nyssorhynchus subgenus (92%), whereas in the natural larval habitats a fewer number of individuals belonged to the Stethomyia (5%) and Anopheles (3%) subgenera. The total of Nyssorhynchus identified (1818), 501 specimens belonged to An. darlingi, 750 to An. triannulatus and 567 for others remaining species. In addition, 1152 could not be identified to subgenus/species level, because they were either in the first-instar or damaged. The primary vector in areas of the Amazon river basin, An. darlingi, was found exclusively in man-made habitats. Statistical analysis display An. triannulatus with specialist behavior for characteristics of man-made habitats. Modifications in the natural environment facilitate the rise of larval habitats for species with epidemiological importance for malaria in the region. This study showed that man-made habitats flow-limited water collections from dry lands could be a factor associated with the increase of An. darlingi and An. triannulatus populations, and other Nyssorhynchus species as well in endemic areas of the Amazon Region.

Diversity of anopheline mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) and classification based on the characteristics of the habitats where they were collected in Puerto Iguazú, Misiones, Argentina

In order to extend the knowledge of anopheline diversity and their habitats in three environments with different degrees of anthropic intervention in Puerto Iguazú, Misiones, anopheline larvae were collected and classified on the basis of similarities of their habitats. Spatio-temporal abundance was determined and larval diversity and complementarity index were calculated. Rank-abundance curves were performed to compare the composition, abundance, and species evenness among environments. A total of 783 larvae, belonging to six species: Anopheles argyritarsis, An. fluminensis, An. mediopunctatus, An. punctimacula, An. strodei s.l., and An. triannulatus s.l., were collected. A cluster analysis and a principal component analysis detected two groups; exposure to sunlight and type of habitat were the characteristics that explained the grouping of species. Higher abundances of anopheline larvae were observed during autumn and spring. The greatest richness was recorded in wild and peri-urban environments and the effective number of species was greater in the wild. Anopheles punctimacula and An. triannulatus s.l. are secondary vectors of malaria in other South American countries and both species were found in the three environments, so that deforestation poses a potential risk for malaria transmission as it contributes to the proliferation of larval habitats for these mosquitoes.

Contribution of fish farming ponds to the production of immature Anopheles spp. in a malaria-endemic Amazonian town

BACKGROUND

In the past decade fish farming has become an important economic activity in the Occidental Brazilian Amazon, where the number of new fish farms is rapidly increasing. One of the primary concerns with this phenomenon is the contribution of fishponds to the maintenance and increase of the anopheline mosquito population, and the subsequent increase in human malaria burden. This study reports the results of a 2-year anopheline abundance survey in fishponds and natural water bodies in a malaria-endemic area in northwest Brazil. The objective of this study was to investigate the contribution of natural water bodies (rivers, streams, creeks, ponds, and puddles) and artificial fishponds as breeding sites for Anopheles spp. in Mâncio Lima, Acre and to investigate the effect of limnological and environmental variables on Anopheles spp. larval abundance.

METHODS

Natural water bodies and fishponds were sampled at eight different times over 2 years (early, mid and late rainy season, dry season) in the Amazonian town of Mâncio Lima, Acre. Anopheline larvae were collected with an entomological dipper, and physical, chemical and ecological characteristics of each water body were measured. Management practices of fishpond owners were ascertained with a systematic questionnaire.

RESULTS

Fishponds were four times more infested with anopheline larvae than natural water bodies. Electrical conductivity and the distance to the nearest house were both significant inverse predictors of larval abundance in natural water bodies. The density of larvae in fishponds raised with increasing border vegetation. Fishponds owned by different farmers varied in the extent of anopheline larval infestation but ponds owned by the same individual had similar infestation patterns over time. Commercial fishponds were 1.7-times more infested with anopheline larvae compared to fishponds for family use.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that fishponds are important breeding sites for anopheline larvae, and that adequate management activities, such as removal of border vegetation could reduce the abundance of mosquito larvae, most importantly Anopheles darlingi.

Deforestation, drainage network, indigenous status, and geographical differences of malaria in the State of Amazonas

Background

Malaria is a major public health problem worldwide. In Brazil, an average of 420,000 cases of malaria have been reported annually in the last 12 years, of which 99.7 % occurred in the Amazon region. This study aimed to analyse the distribution of malaria in the State of Amazonas and the influence of indigenous malaria in this scenario, to evaluate the correlation between incidence rates and socio-economic and environmental factors, and to evaluate the performance of health surveillance services.

Methods

This ecological study used secondary data obtained from the SIVEP-MALARIA malaria surveillance programme. The relationship between demographic, socio-economic and environmental factors, the performance of health surveillance services and the incidence of malaria in Amazonas, a multiple linear regression model was used.

Results

The crude rate of malaria in Amazonas was 4142.72 cases per 100,000 inhabitants between 2003 and 2012. The incidence rates for the indigenous and non-indigenous populations were 12,976.02 and 3749.82, respectively, with an indigenous population attributable fraction of only 8 %. The results of the linear regression analysis indicated a negative correlation between the two socio-economic indicators (municipal human development index (MHDI) and poverty rate) and the incidence of malaria in the period. With regard to the environmental indicators (average annual deforestation rate and percentage of areas under the influence of watercourses), the correlation with the incidence rate was positive.

Conclusions

The findings underscore the importance of implementing economic and social development policies articulated with strategic actions of environmental protection and health care for the population.

Deforestation and Malaria on the Amazon Frontier: Larval Clustering of Anopheles darlingi (Diptera: Culicidae) Determines Focal Distribution of Malaria

We performed bimonthly mosquito larval collections during 1 year, in an agricultural settlement in the Brazilian Amazon, as well as an analysis of malaria incidence in neighboring houses. Water collections located at forest fringes were more commonly positive for Anopheles darlingi larvae and Kulldorff spatial analysis pinpointed significant larval clusters at sites directly beneath forest fringes, which were called larval "hotspots." Remote sensing identified 43 "potential" hotspots. Sampling of these areas revealed an 85.7% positivity rate for A. darlingi larvae. Malaria was correlated with shorter distances to potential hotpots and settlers living within 400 m of potential hotspots had a 2.60 higher risk of malaria. Recently arrived settlers, usually located closer to the tip of the triangularly shaped deforestation imprints of side roads, may be more exposed to malaria due to their proximity to the forest fringe. As deforestation progresses, transmission decreases. However, forest remnants inside deforested areas conferred an increased risk of malaria. We propose a model for explaining frontier malaria in the Amazon: because of adaptation of A. darlingi to the forest fringe ecotone, humans are exposed to an increased transmission risk when in proximity to these areas, especially when small dams are created on naturally running water collections.

Epidemic and Endemic Malaria Transmission Related to Fish Farming Ponds in the Amazon Frontier

Fish farming in the Amazon has been stimulated as a solution to increase economic development. However, poorly managed fish ponds have been sometimes associated with the presence of Anopheles spp. and consequently, with malaria transmission. In this study, we analyzed the spatial and temporal dynamics of malaria in the state of Acre (and more closely within a single county) to investigate the potential links between aquaculture and malaria transmission in this region. At the state level, we classified the 22 counties into three malaria endemicity patterns, based on the correlation between notification time series. Furthermore, the study period (2003-2013) was divided into two phases (epidemic and post-epidemic). Higher fish pond construction coincided both spatially and temporally with increased rate of malaria notification. Within one malaria endemic county, we investigated the relationship between the geolocation of malaria cases (2011-2012) and their distance to fish ponds. Entomological surveys carried out in these ponds provided measurements of anopheline abundance that were significantly associated with the abundance of malaria cases within 100 m of the ponds (P < 0.005; r = 0.39). These results taken together suggest that fish farming contributes to the maintenance of high transmission levels of malaria in this region.

New classification of natural breeding habitats for Neotropical anophelines in the Yanomami Indian Reserve, Amazon Region, Brazil and a new larval sampling methodology

Here we present the first in a series of articles about the ecology of immature stages of anophelines in the Brazilian Yanomami area. We propose a new larval habitat classification and a new larval sampling methodology. We also report some preliminary results illustrating the applicability of the methodology based on data collected in the Brazilian Amazon rainforest in a longitudinal study of two remote Yanomami communities, Parafuri and Toototobi. In these areas, we mapped and classified 112 natural breeding habitats located in low-order river systems based on their association with river flood pulses, seasonality and exposure to sun. Our classification rendered seven types of larval habitats: lakes associated with the river, which are subdivided into oxbow lakes and nonoxbow lakes, flooded areas associated with the river, flooded areas not associated with the river, rainfall pools, small forest streams, medium forest streams and rivers. The methodology for larval sampling was based on the accurate quantification of the effective breeding area, taking into account the area of the perimeter and subtypes of microenvironments present per larval habitat type using a laser range finder and a small portable inflatable boat. The new classification and new sampling methodology proposed herein may be useful in vector control programs.

Geographically weighted regression of land cover determinants of Plasmodium falciparum transmission in the Ashanti Region of Ghana

Background

Malaria is a mosquito-borne parasitic disease that causes severe mortality and morbidity, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. As the vectors predominantly bite between dusk and dawn, risk of infection is determined by the abundance of P. falciparum infected mosquitoes in the surroundings of the households. Remote sensing is commonly employed to detect associations between land use/land cover (LULC) and mosquito-borne diseases. Due to challenges in LULC identification and the fact that LULC merely functions as a proxy for mosquito abundance, assuming spatially homogenous relationships may lead to overgeneralized conclusions.

Methods

Data on incidence of P. falciparum parasitaemia were recorded by active and passive follow-up over two years. Nine LULC types were identified through remote sensing and ground-truthing. Spatial associations of LULC and P. falciparum parasitaemia rate were described in a semi-parametric geographically weighted Poisson regression model.

Results

Complete data were available for 878 individuals, with an annual P. falciparum rate of 3.2 infections per person-year at risk. The influences of built-up areas (median incidence rate ratio (IRR): 0.94, IQR: 0.46), forest (median IRR: 0.9, IQR: 0.51), swampy areas (median IRR: 1.15, IQR: 0.88), as well as banana (median IRR: 1.02, IQR: 0.25), cacao (median IRR: 1.33, IQR: 0.97) and orange plantations (median IRR: 1.11, IQR: 0.68) on P. falciparum rate show strong spatial variations within the study area. Incorporating spatial variability of LULC variables increased model performance compared to the spatially homogenous model.

Conclusions

The observed spatial variability of LULC influence in parasitaemia would have been masked by traditional Poisson regression analysis assuming a spatially constant influence of all variables. We conclude that the spatially varying effects of LULC on P. falciparum parasitaemia may in fact be associated with co-factors not captured by remote sensing, and suggest that future studies assess small-scale spatial variation of vegetation to circumvent generalised assumptions on ecological associations that may in fact be artificial.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1476-072X-13-35) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Response to the critique by Hahn and others entitled "Conservation and malaria in the Brazilian Amazon"

Hahn and others have recently criticized our study, "Conservation efforts may increase malaria burden in the Brazilian Amazon," suggesting that results were flawed because of methodological limitations. Here, we briefly comment on some of their claims, showing that (1) several of their criticisms are misleading and others are incorrect, (2) they heavily criticize methods that they themselves have previously used, and (3) they selectively highlight some findings while ignoring others. We end this rebuttal by suggesting a way forward in this debate.

Environmental change and the dynamics of parasitic diseases in the Amazon

The Amazonian environment is changing rapidly, due to deforestation, in the short term, and, climatic change is projected to alter its forest cover, in the next few decades. These modifications to the, environment have been altering the dynamics of infectious diseases which have natural foci in the, Amazonian biome, especially in its forest. Current land use practices which are changing the, epidemiological profile of the parasitic diseases in the region are road building; logging; mining; expansion of agriculture and cattle ranching and the building of large dams. Malaria and the cutaneous, leishmaniasis are the diseases best known for their rapid changes in response to environmental, modifications. Others such as soil-transmitted helminthiases, filarial infections and toxoplasmosis, which have part of their developmental cycles in the biophysical environment, are also expected to, change rapidly. An interdisciplinary approach and an integrated, international surveillance are needed, to manage the environmentally-driven changes in the Amazonian parasitic diseases in the near future.

Ecological suitability and spatial distribution of five Anopheles species in Amazonian Brazil

Seventy-six sites characterized in Amazonian Brazil revealed distinct habitat diversification by examining the environmental factors associated with the distribution and abundance of five anopheline species (Diptera: Culicidae) in the subgenus Nyssorhynchus. These included three members of the Albitarsis Complex, Anopheles oryzalimnetes, Anopheles marajoara, Anopheles janconnae; Anopheles triannulatus, and Anopheles goeldii. Anopheles janconnae abundance had a positive correlation to water flow and a negative relationship to sun exposure. Abundance of An. oryzalimentes was associated with water chemistry. Anopheles goeldii larvae were abundant in shaded, more saline waters. Anopheles marajoara and An. triannulatus were negatively associated with available resources, although An. marajoara also showed several local correlations. These analyses suggest An. triannulatus is a habitat generalist, An. oryzalimentes and An. janconnae are specialists, and An. marajoara and An. goeldii could not be easily classified either way. Correlations described herein provide testable hypotheses for future research and identifying habitats for vector control.

Conservation efforts may increase malaria burden in the Brazilian Amazon

BACKGROUND

Large-scale forest conservation projects are underway in the Brazilian Amazon but little is known regarding their public health impact. Current literature emphasizes how land clearing increases malaria incidence, leading to the conclusion that forest conservation decreases malaria burden. Yet, there is also evidence that proximity to forest fringes increases malaria incidence, which implies the opposite relationship between forest conservation and malaria. We compare the effect of these environmental factors on malaria and explore its implications.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Using a large malaria dataset (~1,300,000 positive malaria tests collected over ~4.5 million km(2)), satellite imagery, permutation tests, and hierarchical Bayesian regressions, we show that greater forest cover (as a proxy for proximity to forest fringes) tends to be associated with higher malaria incidence, and that forest cover effect was 25 times greater than the land clearing effect, the often cited culprit of malaria in the region. These findings have important implications for land use/land cover (LULC) policies in the region. We find that cities close to protected areas (PA's) tend to have higher malaria incidence than cities far from PA's. Using future LULC scenarios, we show that avoiding 10% of deforestation through better governance might result in an average 2-fold increase in malaria incidence by 2050 in urban health posts.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that cost analysis of reduced carbon emissions from conservation efforts in the region should account for increased malaria morbidity, and that conservation initiatives should consider adopting malaria mitigation strategies. Coordinated actions from disparate science fields, government ministries, and global initiatives (e.g., Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation; Millenium Development Goals; Roll Back Malaria; and Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria), will be required to decrease malaria toll in the region while preserving these important ecosystems.

On the use of classic epidemiological formulae for estimating the intensity of endemic malaria transmission by vectors in the Amazon

Although various reports have described entomological inoculation rates of malaria vector species, most were limited to providing descriptive field data. Here, we report biting rates and survival data for two important malaria vectors in the Amazon, Anopheles darlingi (Root) and Anopheles albitarsis E (Lynch-Arribalzaga) (Diptera: Culicidae), in the state of Roraima, Brazil. We calculated theoretical sporozoite infection rates and critical vector biting rates for these species during 1 year, comprising six bimestrial collections. Anopheles darlingi had higher sporozoite rates and lower critical biting rates, indicating that it would be the more efficient vector at the beginning of epidemic malaria transmission. Our data, together with compiled information from the literature in the Amazon, suggest that epidemic malaria transmission may be initiated by the primary vector, such as A. darlingi, while secondary vectors, such as A. albitarsis E, may only become epidemiologically important when there is an increase in the prevalence of human malaria. We propose that mathematical modeling may be able to quantify the relative importance of secondary vector species in malaria epidemiology.

Linking land cover and species distribution models to project potential ranges of malaria vectors: an example using Anopheles arabiensis in Sudan and Upper Egypt

Background

Anopheles arabiensis is a particularly opportunistic feeder and efficient vector of Plasmodium falciparum in Africa and may invade areas outside its normal range, including areas separated by expanses of barren desert. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how spatial models can project future irrigated cropland and potential, new suitable habitat for vectors such as An. arabiensis.

Methods

Two different but complementary spatial models were linked to demonstrate their synergy for assessing re-invasion potential of An. arabiensis into Upper Egypt as a function of irrigated cropland expansion by 2050. The first model (The Land Change Modeler) was used to simulate changes in irrigated cropland using a Markov Chain approach, while the second model (MaxEnt) uses species occurrence points, land cover and other environmental layers to project probability of species presence. Two basic change scenarios were analysed, one involving a more conservative business-as-usual (BAU) assumption and second with a high probability of desert-to-cropland transition (Green Nile) to assess a broad range of potential outcomes by 2050.

Results

The results reveal a difference of 82,000 sq km in potential An. arabiensis range between the BAU and Green Nile scenarios. The BAU scenario revealed a highly fragmented set of small, potential habitat patches separated by relatively large distances (maximum distance = 64.02 km, mean = 12.72 km, SD = 9.92), while the Green Nile scenario produced a landscape characterized by large patches separated by relatively shorter gaps (maximum distance = 49.38, km, mean = 4.51 km, SD = 7.89) that may be bridged by the vector.

Conclusions

This study provides a first demonstration of how land change and species distribution models may be linked to project potential changes in vector habitat distribution and invasion potential. While gaps between potential habitat patches remained large in the Green Nile scenario, the models reveal large areas of future habitat connectivity that may facilitate the re-invasion of An. arabiensis from Sudan into Upper Egypt. The methods used are broadly applicable to other land cover changes as they influence vector distribution, particularly those related to tropical deforestation and urbanization processes.

Plasmodium vivax Duffy binding protein: baseline antibody responses and parasite polymorphisms in a well-consolidated settlement of the Amazon Region

OBJECTIVE

To investigate risk factors associated with the acquisition of antibodies against Plasmodium vivax Duffy binding protein (PvDBP) - a leading malaria vaccine candidate - in a well-consolidated agricultural settlement of the Brazilian Amazon Region and to determine the sequence diversity of the PvDBP ligand domain (DBP(II)) within the local malaria parasite population.

METHODS

Demographic, epidemiological and clinical data were collected from 541 volunteers using a structured questionnaire. Malaria parasites were detected by conventional microscopy and PCR, and blood collection was used for antibody assays and molecular characterisation of DBP(II).

RESULTS

The frequency of malaria infection was 7% (6% for P. vivax and 1% for P. falciparum), with malaria cases clustered near mosquito breeding sites. Nearly 50% of settlers had anti-PvDBP IgG antibodies, as detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) with subject's age being the only strong predictor of seropositivity to PvDBP. Unexpectedly, low levels of DBP(II) diversity were found within the local malaria parasites, suggesting the existence of low gene flow between P. vivax populations, probably due to the relative isolation of the studied settlement.

CONCLUSION

The recognition of PvDBP by a significant proportion of the community, associated with low levels of DBP(II) diversity among local P. vivax, reinforces the variety of malaria transmission patterns in communities from frontier settlements. Such studies should provide baseline information for antimalarial vaccines now in development.

Survivorship of Anopheles darlingi (Diptera: Culicidae) in relation with malaria incidence in the Brazilian Amazon

We performed a longitudinal study of adult survival of Anopheles darlingi, the most important vector in the Amazon, in a malarigenous frontier zone of Brazil. Survival rates were determined from both parous rates and multiparous dissections. Anopheles darlingi human biting rates, daily survival rates and expectation of life where higher in the dry season, as compared to the rainy season, and were correlated with malaria incidence. The biting density of mosquitoes that had survived long enough for completing at least one sporogonic cycle was related with the number of malaria cases by linear regression. Survival rates were the limiting factor explaining longitudinal variations in Plasmodium vivax malaria incidence and the association between adult mosquito survival and malaria was statistically significant by logistic regression (P<0.05). Survival rates were better correlated with malaria incidence than adult mosquito biting density. Mathematical modeling showed that P. falciparum and P. malariae were more vulnerable to changes in mosquito survival rates because of longer sporogonic cycle duration, as compared to P. vivax, which could account for the low prevalence of the former parasites observed in the study area. Population modeling also showed that the observed decreases in human biting rates in the wet season could be entirely explained by decreases in survival rates, suggesting that decreased breeding did not occur in the wet season, at the sites where adult mosquitoes were collected. For the first time in the literature, multivariate methods detected a statistically significant inverse relation (P<0.05) between the number of rainy days per month and daily survival rates, suggesting that rainfall may cause adult mortality.