Density-dependent processes in the transmission of human onchocerciasis: relationship between the numbers of microfilariae ingested and successful larval development in the simuliid vector

Combining geospatial abundance and ecological niche models to identify high-priority areas for conservation: The neglected role of broadscale interspecific competition

Ecological niche models (ENMs) have become a practical and key mechanism for filling major gaps in spatial information for targeted conservation planning, particularly when only occurrence data are available. Nonetheless, accounting for abundance patterns in the internal structure of species’ ranges, and the role of biotic interactions in such models across broadscale, remains highly challenging. Our study gathered baseline information on abundance data of two Endangered Amazonian primates (Ateles chamek and Lagothrix lagotricha cana) to create geospatial abundance models using two spatial interpolation methods: Inverse distance weight (IDW) and Ordinary kriging (OK). The main goals were to: (i) test whether geospatial abundance models are correlated with habitat suitability derived from correlative ENMs; (ii) compare the strength of the abundance-suitability relationships between original and interpolated abundances; (iii) test whether interspecific competition between the two target taxa constrained abundance over broad spatial scales; and (iv) create ensemble models incorporating both habitat suitability and abundance to identify high-priority areas for conservation. We found a significant positive relationship between habitat suitability with observed and predicted abundances of woolly (L. l. cana) and spider (A. chamek) monkeys. Abundance-suitability correlations showed no significant differences when using original relative abundances compared to using interpolated abundances. We also found that the association between L. l. cana abundance and habitat suitability depended on the abundance of its putative competitor species, A. chamek. Our final models combining geospatial abundance information with ENMs were able to provide more realistic assessments of hotspots for conservation, especially when accounting for the important, but often neglected, role of interspecific competition in shaping species’ geographic ranges at broader scales. The framework developed here, including general trends in abundance patterns and suitability information, can be used as a surrogate to identify high-priority areas for conservation of poorly known species across their entire geographic ranges.

Flying Over Amazonian Waters: The Role of Rivers on the Distribution and Endemism Patterns of Neotropical Bats

The Amazon comprises many of the largest rivers in the planet and also houses some of the richest bat communities in the world. Rivers are important geographic barriers for the dispersal and distribution of different taxa worldwide and, particularly in the Amazon region, they form the conceptual and empirical bases for the recognition of the so-called Areas of Endemism of terrestrial vertebrates. Despite the vast literature on the role of rivers on vertebrate community structure in the Amazon Forest, this process has never been investigated using a comprehensive dataset of Neotropical bat communities in the region. In this study, we aimed at: (1) evaluating the patterns of bat endemism across the Amazon Forest; (2) testing for the relationship between the distribution of bat species in the Amazon and the interfluve Areas of Endemism as currently recognized, and; (3) analyzing the importance of major Amazonian rivers in bat beta-diversity (turnover and nestedness) in the Amazon. Our results indicate that rivers are not major barriers for the current distribution of most bat species, and bat community composition breaks were divided into two clusters separating the east and west regions, and a third cluster in northern Amazon. In addition, there was no significant overlap among species distribution limits and the interfluve Areas of Endemism. Interestingly, the geographic patterns that we found for bat communities composition breaks highly resembles the one recovered using bird communities, suggesting that similar ecological and historical drivers might be acting to determine the distribution of flying vertebrates in the Amazon. Moreover, Amazonian bat distribution and endemism patterns were likely shaped by factors other than rivers, such as species interactions and the current environmental conditions. In conclusion, our results highlight the importance of modern analytical approaches to investigate large scale ecological patterns in the Neotropical region, and also challenge the widely recognized role of rivers on the determination of community structure and endemism patterns in the Amazon Forest, at least for bats.

Host Controls of Within-Host Disease Dynamics: Insight from an Invertebrate System

AbstractWithin-host processes (representing the entry, establishment, growth, and development of a parasite inside its host) may play a key role in parasite transmission but remain challenging to observe and quantify. We develop a general model for measuring host defenses and within-host disease dynamics. Our stochastic model breaks the infection process down into the stages of parasite exposure, entry, and establishment and provides associated probabilities for a host's ability to resist infections with barriers and clear internal infections. We tested our model on Daphnia dentifera and the parasitic fungus Metschnikowia bicuspidata and found that when faced with identical levels of parasite exposure, Daphnia patent (transmitting) infections depended on the strength of internal clearance. Applying a Gillespie algorithm to the model-estimated probabilities allowed us to visualize within-host dynamics, within which signatures of host defense could be clearly observed. We also found that early within-host stages were the most vulnerable to internal clearance, suggesting that hosts have a limited window during which recovery can occur. Our study demonstrates how pairing longitudinal infection data with a simple model can reveal new insight into within-host dynamics and mechanisms of host defense. Our model and methodological approach may be a powerful tool for exploring these properties in understudied host-parasite interactions.

The burden of skin disease and eye disease due to onchocerciasis in countries formerly under the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control mandate for 1990, 2020, and 2030

BACKGROUND

Onchocerciasis ("river blindness") can cause severe morbidity, including vision loss and various skin manifestations, and is targeted for elimination using ivermectin mass drug administration (MDA). We calculated the number of people with Onchocerca volvulus infection and onchocercal skin and eye disease as well as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost from 1990 through to 2030 in areas formerly covered by the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control.

METHODS

Per MDA implementation unit, we collated data on the pre-control distribution of microfilariae (mf) prevalence and the history of control. Next, we predicted trends in infection and morbidity over time using the ONCHOSIM simulation model. DALY estimates were calculated using disability weights from the Global Burden of Disease Study.

RESULTS

In 1990, prior to MDA implementation, the total population at risk was 79.8 million with 26.0 million (32.5%) mf-positive individuals, of whom 17.5 million (21.9%) had some form of onchocercal skin or eye disease (2.5 million DALYs lost). By 2030, the total population was predicted to increase to 236.1 million, while the number of mf-positive cases (about 6.8 million, 2.9%), people with skin or eye morbidity (4.2 million, 1.8%), and DALYs lost (0.7 million) were predicted to decline.

CONCLUSIONS

MDA has had a remarkable impact on the onchocerciasis burden in countries previously under the APOC mandate. In the few countries where we predict continued transmission between now and 2030, intensified MDA could be combined with local vector control efforts, or the introduction of new drugs for mopping up residual cases of infection and morbidity.

Taking the strain out of onchocerciasis? A reanalysis of blindness and transmission data does not support the existence of a savannah blinding strain of onchocerciasis in West Africa

Onchocerciasis (also known as 'river blindness'), is a neglected tropical disease (NTD) caused by the (Simulium-transmitted) filarial nematode Onchocerca volvulus. The occurrence of 'blinding' (savannah) and non-blinding (forest) parasite strains and the existence of corresponding, locally adapted Onchocerca-Simulium complexes were postulated to explain greater blindness prevalence in savannah than in forest foci. As a result, the World Health Organization (WHO) Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa (OCP) focused anti-vectorial and anti-parasitic interventions in savannah endemic areas. In this paper, village-level data on blindness prevalence, microfilarial prevalence, and transmission intensity (measured by the annual transmission potential, the number of infective, L3, larvae per person per year) were extracted from 16 West-Central Africa-based publications, and analysed according to habitat (forest, forest-savannah mosaic, savannah) to test the dichotomous strain hypothesis in relation to blindness. When adjusting for sample size, there were no statistically significant differences in blindness prevalence between the habitats (one-way ANOVA, P=0.68, mean prevalence for forest=1.76±0.37 (SE); mosaic=1.49±0.38; savannah=1.89±0.26). The well-known relationship between blindness prevalence and annual transmission potential for savannah habitats was confirmed and shown to hold for (but not to be statistically different from) forest foci (excluding data from southern Côte d'Ivoire, in which blindness prevalence was significantly lower than in other West African forest communities, but which had been the focus of studies leading to the strain-blindness hypothesis that was accepted by OCP planners). We conclude that the evidence for a savannah blinding onchocerciasis strain in simple contrast with a non-blinding forest strain is equivocal. A re-appraisal of the strain hypothesis to explain patterns of ocular disease is needed to improve understanding of onchocerciasis epidemiology and disease burden estimates in the light of the WHO 2030 goals for onchocerciasis.

Data-driven modelling and spatial complexity supports heterogeneity-based integrative management for eliminating Simulium neavei-transmitted river blindness

Concern is emerging regarding the challenges posed by spatial complexity for modelling and managing the area-wide elimination of parasitic infections. While this has led to calls for applying heterogeneity-based approaches for addressing this complexity, questions related to spatial scale, the discovery of locally-relevant models, and its interaction with options for interrupting parasite transmission remain to be resolved. We used a data-driven modelling framework applied to infection data gathered from different monitoring sites to investigate these questions in the context of understanding the transmission dynamics and efforts to eliminate Simulium neavei- transmitted onchocerciasis, a macroparasitic disease that causes river blindness in Western Uganda and other regions of Africa. We demonstrate that our Bayesian-based data-model assimilation technique is able to discover onchocerciasis models that reflect local transmission conditions reliably. Key management variables such as infection breakpoints and required durations of drug interventions for achieving elimination varied spatially due to site-specific parameter constraining; however, this spatial effect was found to operate at the larger focus level, although intriguingly including vector control overcame this variability. These results show that data-driven modelling based on spatial datasets and model-data fusing methodologies will be critical to identifying both the scale-dependent models and heterogeneity-based options required for supporting the successful elimination of S. neavei-borne onchocerciasis.

Modelling exposure heterogeneity and density dependence in onchocerciasis using a novel individual-based transmission model, EPIONCHO-IBM: Implications for elimination and data needs

BACKGROUND

Density dependence in helminth establishment and heterogeneity in exposure to infection are known to drive resilience to interventions based on mass drug administration (MDA). However, the interaction between these processes is poorly understood. We developed a novel individual-based model for onchocerciasis transmission, EPIONCHO-IBM, which accounts for both processes. We fit the model to pre-intervention epidemiological data and explore parasite dynamics during MDA with ivermectin.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Density dependence and heterogeneity in exposure to blackfly (vector) bites were estimated by fitting the model to matched pre-intervention microfilarial prevalence, microfilarial intensity and vector biting rate data from savannah areas of Cameroon and Côte d'Ivoire/Burkina Faso using Latin hypercube sampling. Transmission dynamics during 25 years of annual and biannual ivermectin MDA were investigated. Density dependence in parasite establishment within humans was estimated for different levels of (fixed) exposure heterogeneity to understand how parametric uncertainty may influence treatment dynamics. Stronger overdispersion in exposure to blackfly bites results in the estimation of stronger density-dependent parasite establishment within humans, consequently increasing resilience to MDA. For all levels of exposure heterogeneity tested, the model predicts a departure from the functional forms for density dependence assumed in the deterministic version of the model.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

This is the first, stochastic model of onchocerciasis, that accounts for and estimates density-dependent parasite establishment in humans alongside exposure heterogeneity. Capturing the interaction between these processes is fundamental to our understanding of resilience to MDA interventions. Given that uncertainty in these processes results in very different treatment dynamics, collecting data on exposure heterogeneity would be essential for improving model predictions during MDA. We discuss possible ways in which such data may be collected as well as the importance of better understanding the effects of immunological responses on establishing parasites prior to and during ivermectin treatment.

The Current Status of Molecular Xenomonitoring for Lymphatic Filariasis and Onchocerciasis

The capacity of vector insect surveillance to provide estimates of pathogen prevalence and transmission potential has long been recognized within the global communities tasked with eliminating lymphatic filariasis (LF), the underlying cause of elephantiasis and hydrocele, and onchocerciasis (river blindness). Initially restricted to the practice of dissection, the potential of vector monitoring has grown due to the advent of molecular methods capable of increasing the sensitivity and throughput of testing. However, despite such advancement, operational research gaps remain. If insufficiently addressed, these gaps will reduce the utility of molecular xenomonitoring (MX) for onchocerciasis as elimination efforts expand into Africa. Similarly, such shortcomings will limit the programmatic usefulness of MX for LF, resulting in this technique's significant underutilization.

River Blindness: Mathematical Models for Control and Elimination

Human onchocerciasis (river blindness) is one of the few neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) whose control strategies have been informed by mathematical modelling. With the change in focus from elimination of the disease burden to elimination of Onchocerca volvulus, much remains to be done to refine, calibrate and validate existing models. Under the impetus of the NTD Modelling Consortium, the teams that developed EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM have joined forces to compare and improve these frameworks to better assist ongoing elimination efforts. We review their current versions and describe how they are being used to address two key questions: (1) where can onchocerciasis be eliminated with current intervention strategies by 2020/2025? and (2) what alternative/complementary strategies could help to accelerate elimination where (1) cannot be achieved? The control and elimination of onchocerciasis from the African continent is at a crucial crossroad. The African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control closed at the end of 2015, and although a new platform for support and integration of NTD control has been launched, the disease will have to compete with a myriad of other national health priorities at a pivotal time in the road to elimination. However, never before had onchocerciasis control a better arsenal of intervention strategies as well as diagnostics. It is, therefore, timely to present two models of different geneses and modelling traditions as they come together to produce robust decision-support tools. We start by describing the structural and parametric assumptions of EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM; we continue by summarizing the modelling of current treatment strategies with annual (or biannual) mass ivermectin distribution and introduce a number of alternative strategies, including other microfilaricidal therapies (such as moxidectin), macrofilaricidal (anti-wolbachial) treatments, focal vector control and the possibility of an onchocerciasis vaccine. We conclude by discussing challenges, opportunities and future directions.

Situation analysis of parasitological and entomological indices of onchocerciasis transmission in three drainage basins of the rain forest of South West Cameroon after a decade of ivermectin treatment

BACKGROUND

Community-Directed Treatment with Ivermectin (CDTI) is the main strategy adopted by the African Programme for Onchocerciasis control (APOC). Recent reports from onchocerciasis endemic areas of savannah zones have demonstrated the feasibility of disease elimination through CDTI. Such information is lacking in rain forest zones. In this study, we investigated the parasitological and entomological indices of onchocerciasis transmission in three drainage basins in the rain forest area of Cameroon [after over a decade of CDTI]. River basins differed in terms of river number and their flow rates; and were characterized by high pre-control prevalence rates (60-98%).

METHODS

Nodule palpation and skin snipping were carried out in the study communities to determine the nodule rates, microfilarial prevalences and intensity. Simulium flies were caught at capture points and dissected to determine the biting, parous, infection and infective rates and the transmission potential.

RESULTS

The highest mean microfilaria (mf) prevalence was recorded in the Meme (52.7%), followed by Mungo (41.0%) and Manyu drainage basin (33.0%). The same trend was seen with nodule prevalence between the drainage basins. Twenty-three (23/39) communities (among which 13 in the Meme) still had mf prevalence above 40%. All the communities surveyed had community microfilarial loads (CMFL) below 10 mf/skin snip (ss). The infection was more intense in the Mungo and Meme. The intensity of infection was still high in younger individuals and children less than 10 years of age. Transmission potentials as high as 1211.7 infective larvae/person/month were found in some of the study communities. Entomological indices followed the same trend as the parasitological indices in the three river basins with the Meme having the highest values.

CONCLUSION

When compared with pre-control data, results of the present study show that after over a decade of CDTI, the burden of onchocerciasis has reduced. However, transmission is still going on in this study site where loiasis and onchocerciasis are co-endemic and where ecological factors strongly favour the onchocerciasis transmission. The possible reasons for this persistent and differential transmission despite over a decade of control efforts using ivermectin are discussed.

Elimination of African onchocerciasis: modeling the impact of increasing the frequency of ivermectin mass treatment

The African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) is currently shifting its focus from morbidity control to elimination of infection. To enhance the likelihood of elimination and speed up its achievement, programs may consider to increase the frequency of ivermectin mass treatment from annual to 6-monthly or even higher. In a computer simulation study, we examined the potential impact of increasing the mass treatment frequency for different settings. With the ONCHOSIM model, we simulated 92,610 scenarios pertaining to different assumptions about transmission conditions, history of mass treatment, the future mass treatment strategy, and ivermectin efficacy. Simulation results were used to determine the minimum remaining program duration and number of treatment rounds required to achieve 99% probability of elimination. Doubling the frequency of treatment from yearly to 6-monthly or 3-monthly was predicted to reduce remaining program duration by about 40% or 60%, respectively. These reductions come at a cost of additional treatment rounds, especially in case of 3-monthly mass treatment. Also, aforementioned reductions are highly dependent on maintained coverage, and could be completely nullified if coverage of mass treatment were to fall in the future. In low coverage settings, increasing treatment coverage is almost just as effective as increasing treatment frequency. We conclude that 6-monthly mass treatment may only be worth the effort in situations where annual treatment is expected to take a long time to achieve elimination in spite of good treatment coverage, e.g. because of unfavorable transmission conditions or because mass treatment started recently.

Fitness cost of Litomosoides sigmodontis filarial infection in mite vectors; implications of infected haematophagous arthropod excretory products in host-vector interactions

Filariae are a leading cause of infections which are responsible for serious dermatological, ocular, and vascular lesions. Infective third stage larvae (L3) are transmitted through the bite of a haematophagous vector. Litomosoides sigmodontis is a well-established model of filariasis in the mouse, with the vector being the mite Ornithonyssus bacoti. The aim of the study was to analyse the filarial infection in mites to determine the consequences of filarial infection in the blood-feeding and the reproduction of mites as well as in the regulation of vector-induced inflammation in the mouse skin. Firstly, L3 are unevenly distributed throughout the host population and the majority of the population harbours a moderate infection (1 to 6 L3). Filarial infection does not significantly affect the probing delay for blood feeding. The number of released protonymphs is lower in infected mites but is not correlated with the L3 burden. Finally, induced excreted proteins from infected mites but not from uninfected mites stimulate TNF- α and the neutrophil-chemoattractant KC production by antigen-presenting cells (APCs). Altogether, these results describe the modification of the mite behavior under filarial infection and suggest that the immunomodulatory capacity of the mite may be modified by the presence of the parasite, hindering its defensive ability towards the vertebrate host.

Fifteen years of annual mass treatment of onchocerciasis with ivermectin have not interrupted transmission in the west region of cameroon

We followed up the 1996 baseline parasitological and entomological studies on onchocerciasis transmission in eleven health districts in West Region, Cameroon. Annual mass ivermectin treatment had been provided for 15 years. Follow-up assessments which took place in 2005, 2006, and 2011 consisted of skin snips for microfilariae (mf) and palpation examinations for nodules. Follow-up Simulium vector dissections for larval infection rates were done from 2011 to 2012. mf prevalence in adults dropped from 68.7% to 11.4%, and nodule prevalence dropped from 65.9% to 12.1%. The decrease of mf prevalence in children from 29.2% to 8.9% was evidence that transmission was still continuing. mf rates in the follow-up assessments among adults and in children levelled out after a sharp reduction from baseline levels. Only three health districts out of 11 were close to interruption of transmission. Evidence of continuing transmission was also observed in two out of three fly collection sites that had infective rates of 0.19% and 0.18% and ATP of 70 (Foumbot) and 300 (Massangam), respectively. Therefore, halting of annual mass treatment with ivermectin cannot be done after 15 years as it might escalate the risk of transmission recrudescence.

Proof-of-principle of onchocerciasis elimination with ivermectin treatment in endemic foci in Africa: final results of a study in Mali and Senegal

Background

Mass treatment with ivermectin controls onchocerciasis as a public health problem, but it was not known if it could also interrupt transmission and eliminate the parasite in endemic foci in Africa where vectors are highly efficient. A longitudinal study was undertaken in three hyperendemic foci in Mali and Senegal with 15 to 17 years of annual or six-monthly ivermectin treatment in order to assess residual levels of infection and transmission, and test whether treatment could be safely stopped. This article reports the results of the final evaluations up to 5 years after the last treatment.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Skin snip surveys were undertaken in 131 villages where 29,753 people were examined and 492,600 blackflies were analyzed for the presence of Onchocerca volvulus larva using a specific DNA probe. There was a declining trend in infection and transmission levels after the last treatment. In two sites the prevalence of microfilaria and vector infectivity rate were zero 3 to 4 years after the last treatment. In the third site, where infection levels were comparatively high before stopping treatment, there was also a consistent decline in infection and transmission to very low levels 3 to 5 years after stopping treatment. All infection and transmission indicators were below postulated thresholds for elimination.

Conclusion/Significance

The study has established the proof of principle that onchocerciasis elimination with ivermectin treatment is feasible in at least some endemic foci in Africa. The study results have been instrumental for the current evolution from onchocerciasis control to elimination in Africa.

The control of onchocerciasis, or river blindness, is based on annual or six-monthly treatment with ivermectin of populations at risk. This has been effective in controlling the disease as a public health problem but it was not known whether it could also eliminate infection and transmission to the extent that treatment could be safely stopped. Many doubted that this was feasible in Africa. A study was undertaken in three hyperendemic onchocerciasis foci with seasonal transmission in Mali and Senegal where treatment has been given for 15 to 17 years. As a result of this treatment, infection and transmission levels had fallen everywhere below postulated thresholds for elimination. Treatment was therefore stopped in each focus. Follow-up evaluations up to 5 years after the last treatment showed no evidence of recrudescence after stopping treatment but instead a consistent decline in infection and transmission levels, reaching zero in two sites. The study has established the proof-of-principle that onchocerciasis elimination with ivermectin treatment is feasible in at least some endemic foci in Africa. The results of the study have greatly contributed to the current evolution from onchocerciasis control to elimination in Africa.

Assessment and monitoring of onchocerciasis in Latin America

Onchocerciasis has historically been one of the leading causes of infectious blindness worldwide. It is endemic to tropical regions both in Africa and Latin America and in the Yemen. In Latin America, it is found in 13 foci located in 6 different countries. The epidemiologically most important focus of onchocerciasis in the Americas is located in a region spanning the border between Guatemala and Mexico. However, the Amazonian focus straddling the border of Venezuela and Brazil is larger in overall area because the Yanomami populations are scattered over a very large geographical region. Onchocerciasis is caused by infection with the filarial parasite Onchocerca volvulus. The infection is spread through the bites of an insect vector, black flies of the genus Simulium. In Africa, the major vectors are members of the S. damnosum complex, while numerous species serve as vectors of the parasite in Latin America. Latin America has had a long history of attempts to control onchocerciasis, stretching back almost 100 years. The earliest programmes used a strategy of surgical removal of the adult parasites from affected individuals. However, because many of the adult parasites lodge in undetectable and inaccessible areas of the body, the overall effect of this strategy on the prevalence of infection was relatively minor. In 1988, a new drug, ivermectin, was introduced that effectively killed the larval stage (microfilaria) of the parasite in infected humans. As the microfilaria is both the stage that is transmitted by the vector fly and the cause of most of the pathologies associated with the infection, ivermectin opened up a new strategy for the control of onchocerciasis. Concurrent with the use of ivermectin for the treatment of onchocerciasis, a number of sensitive new diagnostic tools were developed (both serological and nucleic acid based) that provided the efficiency, sensitivity and specificity necessary to monitor the decline and eventual elimination of onchocerciasis as a result of successful control. As a result of these advances, a strategy for the elimination of onchocerciasis was developed, based upon mass distribution of ivermectin to afflicted communities for periods lasting long enough to ensure that the parasite population was placed on the road to local elimination. This strategy has been applied for the past decade to the foci in Latin America by a programme overseen by the Onchocerciasis Elimination Program for the Americas (OEPA). The efforts spearheaded by OEPA have been very successful, eliminating ocular disease caused by O. volvulus, and eliminating and interrupting transmission of the parasite in 8 of the 13 foci in the region. As onchocerciasis approaches elimination in Latin America, several questions still need to be addressed. These include defining an acceptable upper limit for transmission in areas in which transmission is thought to have been suppressed (e.g. what is the maximum value for the upper bound of the 95% confidence interval for transmission rates in areas where transmission is no longer detectable), how to develop strategies for conducting surveillance for recrudescence of infection in areas in which transmission is thought to be interrupted and how to address the problem in areas where the mass distribution of ivermectin seems to be unable to completely eliminate the infection.

Population biology of malaria within the mosquito: density-dependent processes and potential implications for transmission-blocking interventions

Background

The combined effects of multiple density-dependent, regulatory processes may have an important impact on the growth and stability of a population. In a malaria model system, it has been shown that the progression of Plasmodium berghei through Anopheles stephensi and the survival of the mosquito both depend non-linearly on parasite density. These processes regulating the development of the malaria parasite within the mosquito may influence the success of transmission-blocking interventions (TBIs) currently under development.

Methods

An individual-based stochastic mathematical model is used to investigate the combined impact of these multiple regulatory processes and examine how TBIs, which target different parasite life-stages within the mosquito, may influence overall parasite transmission.

Results

The best parasite molecular targets will vary between different epidemiological settings. Interventions that reduce ookinete density beneath a threshold level are likely to have auxiliary benefits, as transmission would be further reduced by density-dependent processes that restrict sporogonic development at low parasite densities. TBIs which reduce parasite density but fail to clear the parasite could cause a modest increase in transmission by increasing the number of infectious bites made by a mosquito during its lifetime whilst failing to sufficiently reduce its infectivity. Interventions with a higher variance in efficacy will therefore tend to cause a greater reduction in overall transmission than a TBI with a more uniform effectiveness. Care should be taken when interpreting these results as parasite intensity values in natural parasite-vector combinations of human malaria are likely to be significantly lower than those in this model system.

Conclusions

A greater understanding of the development of the malaria parasite within the mosquito is required to fully evaluate the impact of TBIs. If parasite-induced vector mortality influenced the population dynamics of Plasmodium species infecting humans in malaria endemic regions, it would be important to quantify the variability and duration of TBI efficacy to ensure that community benefits of control measures are not overestimated.

Epidemiology and control of onchocerciasis: the threshold biting rate of savannah onchocerciasis in Africa

Control of onchocerciasis currently focuses on community-directed treatment with the microfilaricide ivermectin which effectively kills Onchocerca volvulus microfilariae in the human host. The feasibility of elimination by this control strategy has recently been reported for some foci in Africa which has rekindled discussions on evaluating the threshold conditions of elimination of onchocerciasis. We developed a stochastic model based on a master equation which predicts, based on data from West and Central Africa, that elimination of savannah onchocerciasis can be expected around a threshold biting rate of 730 bites per person per year, ranging region-specifically roughly from 230 to 2300 bites per person and year. The threshold values give rise to optimism that elimination of onchocerciasis is feasible, but the associated measures of parasite prevalence and density suggest that onchocerciasis can remain endemic at very low infection intensities. Endemicity at a low level is a risk factor for elimination strategies, and we point to the necessity of investigating these issues on the basis of breakpoints which refer to threshold conditions based on parasite prevalence and density.

Feasibility of onchocerciasis elimination with ivermectin treatment in endemic foci in Africa: first evidence from studies in Mali and Senegal

Background

Mass treatment with ivermectin is a proven strategy for controlling onchocerciasis as a public health problem, but it is not known if it can also interrupt transmission and eliminate the parasite in endemic foci in Africa where vectors are highly efficient. A longitudinal study was undertaken in three hyperendemic foci in Mali and Senegal with 15 to 17 years of annual or six-monthly ivermectin treatment in order to assess residual levels of infection and transmission and test whether ivermectin treatment could be safely stopped in the study areas.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Skin snip surveys were undertaken in 126 villages, and 17,801 people were examined. The prevalence of microfilaridermia was <1% in all three foci. A total of 157,500 blackflies were collected and analyzed for the presence of Onchocerca volvulus larvae using a specific DNA probe, and vector infectivity rates were all below 0.5 infective flies per 1,000 flies. Except for a subsection of one focus, all infection and transmission indicators were below postulated thresholds for elimination. Treatment was therefore stopped in test areas of 5 to 8 villages in each focus. Evaluations 16 to 22 months after the last treatment in the test areas involved examination of 2,283 people using the skin snip method and a DEC patch test, and analysis of 123,000 black flies. No infected persons and no infected blackflies were detected in the test areas, and vector infectivity rates in other catching points were <0.2 infective flies per 1,000.

Conclusion/Significance

This study has provided the first empirical evidence that elimination of onchocerciasis with ivermectin treatment is feasible in some endemic foci in Africa. Although further studies are needed to determine to what extent these findings can be extrapolated to other endemic areas in Africa, the principle of elimination has been established. The African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control has adopted an additional objective to assess progress towards elimination endpoints in all onchocerciasis control projects and to guide countries on cessation of treatment where feasible.

The control of onchocerciasis, or river blindness, is based on annual or six-monthly ivermectin treatment of populations at risk. This has been effective in controlling the disease as a public health problem, but it is not known whether it can also eliminate infection and transmission to the extent that treatment can be safely stopped. Many doubt that this is feasible in Africa. A study was undertaken in three hyperendemic onchocerciasis foci in Mali and Senegal where treatment has been given for 15 to 17 years. The results showed that only few infections remained in the human population and that transmission levels were everywhere below postulated thresholds for elimination. Treatment was subsequently stopped in test areas in each focus, and follow-up evaluations did not detect any recrudescence of infection or transmission. Hence, the study has provided the first evidence that onchocerciasis elimination is feasible with ivermectin treatment in some endemic foci in Africa. Although further studies are needed to determine to what extent these findings can be extrapolated to other areas in Africa, the principle of onchocerciasis elimination with ivermectin treatment has been established.

Onchocerca-Simulium interactions and the population and evolutionary biology of Onchocerca volvulus

Parasite-vector interactions shape the population dynamics of vector-borne infections and contribute to observed epidemiological patterns. Also, parasites and their vectors may co-evolve, giving rise to locally adapted combinations or complexes with the potential to stabilise the infection. Here, we focus on Onchocerca-Simulium interactions with particular reference to the transmission dynamics of human onchocerciasis. A wide range of simuliid species may act as vectors of Onchocerca volvulus, each exerting their own influence over the local epidemiology and the feasibility of controlling/eliminating the infection. Firstly, current understanding of the processes involved in parasite acquisition by, and development within, different Simulium species in West Africa and Latin America will be reviewed. A description of how Onchocerca and Simulium exert reciprocal effects on each other's survival at various stages of the parasite's life cycle within the blackfly, and may have adapted to minimise deleterious effects on fitness and maximise transmission will be given. Second, we describe the interactions in terms of resultant (positive and negative) density-dependent processes that regulate parasite abundance, and discuss their incorporation into mathematical models that provide useful qualitative insight regarding transmission breakpoints. Finally, we examine the interactions' influence upon the evolution of anthelmintic resistance, and conclude that local adaptation of Onchocerca-Simulium complexes will influence the feasibility of eliminating the parasite reservoir in different foci.

Density-dependent effects on the weight of female Ascaris lumbricoides infections of humans and its impact on patterns of egg production

BACKGROUND

Ascaris lumbricoides exhibits density-dependent egg production, a process which has a marked impact on both the transmission dynamics and the stability of the parasite population. Evidence suggests that the egg production of female Ascaris is also associated with the size of the worm. If worm size is mediated by density-dependent processes then the size of female worms may have a causal impact upon patterns of Ascaris egg production.

RESULTS

We analyse data collected from a cohort of human hosts, and demonstrate that the per host mean weight (a proxy for size) of female Ascaris is dependent on the number of infecting females (worm burden) following a pattern of initial facilitation followed by limitation. Applying a negative binomial (NB) generalized linear model (GLM) and a zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) model we confirm that the per host female mean weight is significantly associated with per host egg production. Despite these associations, the mean weight of female Ascaris has little causal impact on patterns of density-dependent egg output. The ZINB model is able to account for the disproportionately large number of zero egg counts within the data and is shown to be a consistently better fit than the NB model. The probability of observing a zero egg count is demonstrated as being negatively associated with both female worm burden and female mean weight.

CONCLUSION

The mean weight of female Ascaris is statistically significantly associated with egg output, and follows a consistent pattern of facilitation preceding limitation with increasing female worm burden. Despite these relationships, incorporation of female Ascaris mean weight into models of egg output has little effect on patterns of density dependence. The ZINB model is a superior fit to the data than the NB model and provides additional information regarding the mechanisms that result in a zero egg count. The ZINB model is shown to be a useful tool for the analysis of individual-based egg output data.

Rates of microfilarial production by Onchocerca volvulus are not cumulatively reduced by multiple ivermectin treatments

Regular distribution of ivermectin reduces onchocerciasis transmission and morbidity by killing, within humans, the microfilarial stage of the parasite (microfilaricidal effect). In addition, ivermectin exerts a so-called embryostatic effect by which microfilarial production by the adult female worm becomes suppressed during a number of weeks after treatment. To assess the overall effect of ivermectin on onchocerciasis transmission and evaluate the likelihood of local elimination of the infection it is important to estimate the magnitude of the anti-fertility effect over the course of a treatment programme. Estimates of the effect of repeated drug treatments on the production of microfilariae by adult Onchocerca volvulus were obtained by developing a model that was fitted to data collected from three hyperendemic communities in Guatemala, where eligible residents received ivermectin twice per year for two and a half years. The data consist of microfilarial load measurements in the skin, collected just before each six-monthly treatment during the programme. The model that is developed describes the dynamics of an individual host's expected microfilarial load over the 30-month study period. We adopt a Bayesian approach and use Markov chain Monte Carlo (McMC) techniques to fit the model to the data. Combining estimates from the three villages, average microfilarial production in the first six months post-treatment was reduced by ~64% of its pre-treatment level, regardless of values chosen for the pre-ivermectin fertility rate within plausible ranges. Increased adult worm death rate after treatment (to mimic removal of macrofilariae via nodulectomy during the programme) resulted in a smaller estimated magnitude of the embryostatic effect (rate of microfilarial production was reduced by ~58% of pre-ivermectin value). After subsequent treatments, the rate of microfilarial production appeared to be similarly decreased. The data and analyses therefore do not support the hypothesis of a cumulative effect of multiple ivermectin treatments on microfilarial production by female worms.

Vector competence of Simulium oyapockense s.l. and S. incrustatum for Onchocerca volvulus: Implications for ivermectin-based control in the Amazonian focus of human onchocerciasis, a multi-vector-host system

Although it is now well established that in the Amazonian onchocerciasis focus, straddling between Venezuela and Brazil, the main vectors in the highland (hyperendemic) and lowland (hypoendemic) areas, are respectively Simulium guianense sensu lato Wise and S. oyapockense s.l. Floch and Abonnenc, investigation of the vectorial role of a third anthropophagic species, Simulium incrustatum Lutz has remained inconclusive. Here we compare the vector competence of S. incrustatum with that of S. oyapockense s.l. by conducting, in the Venezuelan part of the focus, a series of feeding experiments designed to analyze their relative: (a) microfilarial intakes when fed upon the same skin load; (b) proportions of microfilariae (mf) surviving damage inflicted by the cibarial armature (present in both species); and (c) infective (L3) larval outputs. Although the ability of S. oyapockense s.l. to ingest mf, for a given microfilaridermia, was markedly higher than that of S. incrustatum, the (density-dependent) proportions of those ingested mf that were damaged by the armature were also consistently higher, with the resulting output of L3 larvae being significantly lower in S. oyapockense s.l. than in S. incrustatum. These results indicate that S. incrustatum plays a more important role in onchocerciasis transmission in the Amazonian focus than previously realized. We discuss the implications of our findings for the control and elimination of onchocerciasis with mass administration of ivermectin in this focus, where the three main anthropophagic species often co-occur.

Progression of Plasmodium berghei through Anopheles stephensi is density-dependent

It is well documented that the density of Plasmodium in its vertebrate host modulates the physiological response induced; this in turn regulates parasite survival and transmission. It is less clear that parasite density in the mosquito regulates survival and transmission of this important pathogen. Numerous studies have described conversion rates of Plasmodium from one life stage to the next within the mosquito, yet few have considered that these rates might vary with parasite density. Here we establish infections with defined numbers of the rodent malaria parasite Plasmodium berghei to examine how parasite density at each stage of development (gametocytes; ookinetes; oocysts and sporozoites) influences development to the ensuing stage in Anopheles stephensi, and thus the delivery of infectious sporozoites to the vertebrate host. We show that every developmental transition exhibits strong density dependence, with numbers of the ensuing stages saturating at high density. We further show that when fed ookinetes at very low densities, oocyst development is facilitated by increasing ookinete number (i.e., the efficiency of ookinete–oocyst transformation follows a sigmoid relationship). We discuss how observations on this model system generate important hypotheses for the understanding of malaria biology, and how these might guide the rational analysis of interventions against the transmission of the malaria parasites of humans by their diverse vector species.

Malaria, one of the world's most devastating parasitic diseases, is caused by protozoan parasites of the genus Plasmodium and is transmitted between mammalian hosts by Anopheles mosquitoes. Within the mosquito, the parasite undergoes four sequential developmental transformations as it passes from the bloodmeal through the mosquito's midgut epithelium to the salivary glands, from where the parasite is inoculated when the mosquito bites the vertebrate host. This study demonstrates, in a laboratory model, that parasite input density at every developmental stage in the mosquito regulates output to the ensuing form. Statistical models were fitted to experimental data to identify and describe the most appropriate functional relationships. In all cases, the relationships between two consecutive parasite stages can saturate at high parasite densities, suggesting that at high parasite densities parasite numbers may have to be reduced substantially to effect an appreciable decrease in parasite transmission. These results may help establish a rational basis for new studies on species of medical importance and further our understanding of how interventions designed to reduce parasite survival within the mosquito might be expected to impact upon transmission.

Density dependence and the spread of anthelmintic resistance

Variation in the strength of selection pressures acting upon different subpopulations may cause density-dependent regulatory processes to act differentially on particular genotypes and may influence the rate of selection of adaptive traits. Using host-helminth parasite systems as examples, we investigate the impact of different positive and negative density dependence on the potential spread of anthelmintic resistance. Following chemotherapy, the negative density-dependent processes restricting parasite population growth will be relaxed, increasing the genetic contribution of resistant parasites to the next generation. Simple deterministic models of directly transmitted nematodes that merge population dynamics and genetics show that the frequency of drug-resistant alleles may increase faster in species whose population size is down-regulated by density-dependent parasite fecundity than in species with density-dependent establishment or parasite mortality. A genetically structured population dynamics model of an indirectly transmitted nematode is used to highlight how population regulation will influence the resistance allele frequency in different parasite lifestages. Results indicate that surveys aimed at monitoring the evolution of drug resistance should consider carefully which life stage to sample, and the time following treatment samples should be collected. Anthelmintic resistance offers a good opportunity to apply fundamental evolutionary and ecological principles to the management of a potentially crucial public health problem.

Vector competence for Onchocerca volvulus in the Simulium (Notolepria) exiguum complex: cytoforms or density-dependence?

Although Simulium exiguum Roubaud s.l. is present in all South American onchocerciasis foci, it is a significant vector only in Colombia and Ecuador. This variable vectorial role has been attributed to sibling forms that differ in their ability to allow Onchocerca volvulus larval development and their preferred bloodmeal hosts. Here we evaluate the relationship between parasite availability in human skin and infective larval output measured as (a) number of L3 larvae and (b) proportion of surviving flies with L3s in the Cayapa form of S. exiguum s.l. from Ecuador, taking into account the variation in counts of microfilariae (mf) from 6skin snips/patient. Comparisons with other cytoforms (Aguarico, Bucay and Quevedo, absent in the main Ecuadorean onchocerciasis foci) are made to suggest the relative roles of intrinsic susceptibility or co-adaptation versus density-dependent parasite uptake. A nonlinear (limitation) relationship, characterised by an initial rapid increase in infective larvae with increasing mf skin density was confirmed for the Cayapa cytoform. The proportion of infective Cayapa flies increased and saturated rapidly (reaching 80% for >/= 20mf/mg skin). After adjusting for density dependence, non-Cayapa cytoforms exhibited significantly lower L3 loads and proportions of infective flies for a given mf skin density than Cayapa flies, indicating that the susceptibility of those cytoforms is intrinsically lower than that of the Cayapa cytoform and that the differences observed are not due to density-dependent effects.

Microfilarial distribution of Loa loa in the human host: population dynamics and epidemiological implications

Severe adverse events (SAEs) following ivermectin treatment may occur in people harbouring high Loa loa microfilarial (mf) densities. In the context of mass ivermectin distribution for onchocerciasis control in Africa, it is crucial to define precisely the geographical distribution of L. loa in relation to that of Onchocerca volvulus and predict the prevalence of heavy infections. To this end, we analysed the distribution of mf loads in 4183 individuals living in 36 villages of central Cameroon. Mf loads were assessed quantitatively by calibrated blood smears, collected prior to ivermectin distribution. We explored the pattern of L. loa mf aggregation by fitting the (zero-truncated) negative binomial distribution and estimating its overdispersion parameter k by maximum likelihood. The value of k varied around 0.3 independently of mf intensity, host age, village and endemicity level. Based on these results, we developed a semi-empirical model to predict the prevalence of heavy L. loa mf loads in a community given its overall mf prevalence. If validated at the continental scale and linked to predictive spatial models of loiasis distribution, this approach would be particularly useful for optimizing the identification of areas at risk of SAEs and providing estimates of populations at risk in localities where L. loa and O. volvulus are co-endemic.

Transmission dynamics of lymphatic filariasis: vector-specific density dependence in the development of Wuchereria bancrofti infective larvae in mosquitoes

The principles of meta-analysis developed in a previous study were extended to investigate the process of Wuchereria bancrofti (Cobbold) (Filarioidea: Onchocercidae) infection in mosquito (Diptera: Culicidae) hosts, focusing specifically on the functional forms and strength of density dependence in the development of ingested microfilariae (mf) to infective (third instar) larvae (L3). Mathematical models describing observed mf-L3 functional responses for each of the major three parasite-transmitting vector genera, Aedes, Culex and Anopheles mosquitoes, were fitted to paired mf-L3 data collated from all available studies in the published literature. Model parameters were estimated and compared by deriving and applying a data synthetic framework, based on applying a non-linear weighted regression model for fitting mathematical models to multistudy data. The results confirm previous findings of the existence of significant between-genera differences in the mf-L3 development relationship, particularly with regard to the occurrence of limitation in Culex mosquitoes and facilitation in Aedes and Anopheles mosquitoes. New and unexpected findings regarding L3 development from ingested mf were discovered as follows: (1) for Culex, overcompensation in L3 development at higher intensities of mf (or a peaked mf-L3 functional response) was detected; (2) for Aedes mosquitoes, facilitation (with an apparent asymptotic constraint on L3 development at high mf densities) was shown to be the major process governing L3 development, and (3) for Anopheles, a stronger facilitation type of response with no apparent saturation in L3 development appears to govern L3 output from ingested mf. These results yield major new insights regarding filarial vector infection dynamics and their potential impacts on parasite control, and demonstrate the efficacy of employing a data synthetic approach to reveal and estimate parasitic infection processes in host populations.

Mathematical models and lymphatic filariasis control: endpoints and optimal interventions

The current global initiative to eliminate lymphatic filariasis is a major renewed commitment to reduce or eliminate the burden of one of the major helminth infections from resource-poor communities of the world. Mathematical models of filariasis transmission can serve as an effective tool for guiding the scientific development and management of successful community-level intervention programmes by acting as analytical frameworks for integrating knowledge regarding parasite transmission dynamics with programmatic factors. However, the power of these tools for supporting control interventions will be realized fully only if researchers address the current uncertainties and gaps in data and knowledge of filarial population dynamics and the effectiveness of currently proposed filariasis intervention options.

Density dependence and overdispersion in the transmission of helminth parasites

The influence of density-dependent processes on the transmission of parasitic helminths is determined by both the severity of the regulatory constraints and the degree of parasite overdispersion among the host population. We investigate how overdispersed parasite distributions among humans influence transmission levels in both directly- and indirectly-transmitted nematodes (Ascaris lumbricoides and Onchocerca volvulus). While past work has assumed, for simplicity, that density dependence acts on the average worm load, here we model density-dependence as acting on individual parasite burdens before averaging across hosts. A composite parameter, which we call the effective transmission contribution, is devised to measure the number of transmission stages contributed by a given worm burden after incorporating over-dispersion in adult worm mating probabilities and other density-dependent mechanisms. Results indicate that the more overdispersed the parasite population, the greater the effect of density dependence upon its transmission dynamics. Strong regulation and parasite overdispersion make the relationship between mean worm burden and its effective contribution to transmission highly non-linear. Consequently, lowering the intensity of infection in a host population using chemotherapy may produce only a small decline in transmission (relative to its initial endemic level). Our analysis indicates that when parasite burden is low, intermediate levels of parasite clustering maximize transmission. Implications are discussed in relation to existing control programmes and the spread of anthelmintic resistance.

Impact of four years of large-scale ivermectin treatment with low therapeutic coverage on the transmission of Onchocerca volvulus in the Mbam valley focus, central Cameroon

The extent to which ivermectin treatments have an impact on onchocerciasis transmission is a matter of some concern. We investigated this issue in the Mbam valley, a hyperendemic focus located in a forest-savannah mosaic area of Cameroon. Parasitological examinations of 5-9-year-old children, who had never received any antifilarial drug, were conducted before the first distribution of ivermectin in 1991-1993 and again in 2002, after four annual rounds of mass treatments. After matching for gender, age and village of residence, the prevalence and intensity of microfilaridermia corresponded respectively, in 2002, to 66.2 and 42.0% of the initial values. The decrease was more marked among the youngest children who, compared with the older ones, were submitted to the reduced force-of-infection earlier in their life. The results of the present study suggest that the specific vectorial competence of Simulium squamosum cytotype B, the vector of Onchocerca volvulus in the Mbam valley, allows a significant decrease in onchocerciasis transmission after several years of treatment, despite low therapeutic coverage. Though these results are encouraging, efforts should be made to improve the therapeutic coverage in the area.

Diurnal biting periodicity of parous Simulium (Diptera: Simuliidae) vectors in the onchocerciasis Amazonian focus

We describe the hourly patterns of parous biting activity of the three main simuliid vectors of human onchocerciasis in the Amazonian focus straddling between Venezuela and Brazil, namely, Simulium guianense s.l. Wise; S. incrustatum Lutz, and S. oyapockense s.l. Floch and Abonnenc. Time series of the hourly numbers of host-seeking parous flies caught in five Yanomami villages during dry, rainy, and their transition periods from 1995 to 2001 were investigated using harmonic analysis (assuming an underlying circadian rhythm) and periodic correlation (based on Spearman's r). Parous S guianense s.l. showed a bimodal activity pattern, with a minor peak in mid-morning and a major peak at 16:00 h. S. incrustatum exhibited mainly unimodal activity during either early morning or midday according to locality. S. oyapockense s.l. bit humans throughout the day mainly between 10:00 and 16:00 h but also showed bimodal periodicity in some localities. Superimposed on the endogenous, species-specific daily cycles, parous activity showed variation according to locality, season, air temperature and relative humidity, with biting being promoted by warmer and drier hours during wet seasons/periods and reduced during hotter times in dry seasons or transitions. The results are discussed in terms of their implications for blackfly biology and ecology as well as onchocerciasis epidemiology and control.

Spatial and temporal variation in biting rates and parasite transmission potentials of onchocerciasis vectors in Ecuador

The influence of spatial and temporal factors on onchocerciasis transmission by Simulium exiguum s.l. and S. quadrivittatum in Ecuador was investigated to help develop sampling protocols for entomological surveillance of ivermectin programmes. Flies were collected in alternate months (November 1995-November 1996) at four sites each in the hyperendemic communities of San Miguel and El Tigre. A fixed-effects analysis of variance was used to explore the influence on vector abundance of locality, site, month and hour. Infectivity rates detected by dissection and PCR assays were compared. Simulium exiguum s.l. predominated at El Tigre (75%) whereas S. quadrivittatum prevailed at San Miguel (62%). Vector abundance was highest on river banks and outside houses. Biting and infection rates peaked from March to July. Hourly activity patterns were bimodal in S. exiguum but unimodal in S. quadrivittatum. Annual transmission potentials (ATP) for both species combined were 385 and 733 third stage larvae/person in San Miguel and El Tigre respectively, with S. exiguum accounting for 80% of the combined ATP at both localities. We recommend protocols that may maximize detection of parasite transmission. Infection rates thus obtained must be linked with vector density estimates to assess meaningfully host exposure as treatment progresses.

Uptake of Onchocerca volvulus (Nematoda: Onchocercidae) by Simulium (Diptera: Simuliidae) is not strongly dependent on the density of skin microfilariae in the human host

The relation between the number of microfilariae (mf) ingested by host-seeking vectors of human onchocerciasis and skin mf load is an important component of the population biology of Onchocerca volvulus, with implications for disease control and evaluation of the risk of transmission recrudescence. The microsimulation model ONCHOSIM has been used to assess such risk in the area of the Onchocerciasis Control Program (OCP) in West Africa, based on a strongly nonlinear relation between vector mf uptake and human mf skin density previously published. However, observed levels of recrudescence have exceeded predictions, warranting a recalibration of the model. To this end, we present the results of a series of fly-feeding experiments carried out in savanna and forest localities of West Africa. Flies belonging to Simulium damnosum s.s., S. sirbanum, S. soubrense, and S. leonense were fed on mf carriers and dissected to assess the number of ingested mf escaping imprisonment by the peritrophic matrix (the number of exo-peritrophic mf), a predictor of infective larval output. The method of instrumental variables was used to obtain (nearly) unbiased estimates of the parameters of interest, taking into account error in the measurement of skin mf density. This error is often neglected in these types of studies, making it difficult to ascertain the degree of density-dependence truly present in the relation between mf uptake and skin load. We conclude that this relation is weakly (yet significantly) nonlinear in savanna settings but indistinguishable from linearity in forest vectors. Exo-peritrophic mf uptake does not account for most of the density dependence in the transmission dynamics of the parasite as previously thought. The number of exo-mf in forest simuliids is at least five times higher than in the savanna vectors. Parasite abundance in human onchocerciasis is regulated by poorly known mechanisms operating mainly on other stages of the lifecycle.

Experimental studies on the transmission of Onchocerca volvulus by its vector in the Sanaga valley (Cameroon): Simulium squamosum B. Intake of microfilariae and their migration to the haemocoel of the vector

As large-scale ivermectin distribution is becoming the mainstay of onchocerciasis control in Africa, the issue of its impact on local transmission is increasing in importance. The vector competence of Simulium squamosum B in the severe focus of the Sanaga valley, Cameroon, was therefore investigated, by feeding 1320 flies on 14 carriers of Onchocerca volvulus microfilariae (mff). The results enabled the relationships between skin microfilarial load, microfilarial intake by the flies, the proportion and mean number of ingested mff that succeed in reaching the fly's haemocoel, and the frequency distribution of the ingested mff to be described, as functions of time post-engorgement (p.e.) and parasite density (while taking account of possible measurement error in the predictor variable). The proportion of flies with haemocoelic mff and the mean number of mff/fly increased up to 3 h p.e. The proportion of flies with ingested mff was non-linearly related to mean intake, via the negative-binomial distribution, with the overdispersion parameter k best described as an increasing (power) function of the mean. Approximately one in every three ingested mff escaped imprisonment by the peritrophic matrix, irrespective of the skin microfilarial load or the intake of mff. The relationship between successful and input mff is nearly linear (indicating proportionality) in S. squamosum B. These results are compared with those from O. volvulus-S. damnosum s.l. combinations in other West African foci.

Biological and biomedical implications of the co-evolution of pathogens and their hosts

Co-evolution between host and pathogen is, in principle, a powerful determinant of the biology and genetics of infection and disease. Yet co-evolution has proven difficult to demonstrate rigorously in practice, and co-evolutionary thinking is only just beginning to inform medical or veterinary research in any meaningful way, even though it can have a major influence on how genetic variation in biomedically important traits is interpreted. Improving our understanding of the biomedical significance of co-evolution will require changing the way in which we look for it, complementing the phenomenological approach traditionally favored by evolutionary biologists with the exploitation of the extensive data becoming available on the molecular biology and molecular genetics of host-pathogen interactions.

Macrofilaricides and onchocerciasis control, mathematical modelling of the prospects for elimination

BACKGROUND

In most endemic parts of the world, onchocerciasis (river blindness) control relies, or will soon rely, exclusively on mass treatment with the microfilaricide ivermectin. Worldwide eradication of the parasite by means of this drug is unlikely. Macrofilaricidal drugs are currently being developed for human use.

METHODS

We used ONCHOSIM, a microsimulation mathematical model of the dynamics of onchocerciasis transmission, to explore the potentials of a hypothetical macrofilaricidal drug for the elimination of onchocerciasis under different epidemiological conditions, as characterized by previous intervention strategies, vectorial capacity and levels of coverage.

RESULTS

With a high vector biting rate and poor coverage, a very effective macrofilaricide would appear to have a substantially higher potential for achieving elimination of the parasite than does ivermectin.

CONCLUSIONS

Macrofilaricides have a substantially higher potential for achieving onchocerciasis elimination than ivermectin, but high coverage levels are still key. When these drugs become available, onchocerciasis elimination strategies should be reconsidered. In view of the impact of control efforts preceding the introduction of macrofilaricides on the success of elimination, it is important to sustain current control efforts.

Models for the population biology and control of human onchocerciasis

The absence of animal models in which to reproduce successfully the complete life cycle of Onchocerca volvulus has hindered progress towards unravelling the processes involved in the regulation of parasite abundance in the vertebrate host. Mathematical frameworks have been developed to explore the consequences of such processes in determining parasite population dynamics and the effect on these of control interventions. Post-control predictions are strongly influenced by the assumptions concerning the reproductive life span of the adult female worm (the longest-lived parasite stage) and the distribution of its survival times, and this notion is important to all frameworks. Here, we review the development of models concerning onchocerciasis and discuss the various approaches that have been used, presenting a deterministic framework with parameter values estimated from the Mexican onchocerciasis control programme. This model is used to evaluate interventions combining the removal of adult worms (nodulectomy) and the microfilaricidal and possibly sterilizing effect of ivermectin.

Combined benefits of annual mass treatment with ivermectin and cattle zooprophylaxis on the severity of human onchocerciasis in northern Cameroon

We studied the effect of 10 annual distributions of ivermectin for control of human onchocerciasis on the reduction of Onchocerca volvulus transmission by Simulium vector flies. Prevalence and infection load in the human population decreased, whilst the annual biting rates (ABR) of the vector remained unchanged. The annual transmission potential of infective larvae of O. volvulus fell to 40% of the pre-intervention level, but was still sufficient to maintain endemicity. However, recent immigration of herds of nomadic cattle into the study area has diverted the flies from man to cattle, creating an additional zooprophylactic effect. The predominant transmission of the bovine filaria O. ochengi to man also provides some concomitant cross-protective immunity against further infestations with O. volvulus. The effects of ivermectin on O. volvulus, combined with the zooprophylactic effects of the increased cattle population, have produced a complex beneficial influence on the transmission of human onchocerciasis.

Human onchocerciasis in the Amazonian area of southern Venezuela: spatial and temporal variations in biting and parity rates of black fly (Diptera: Simuliidae) vectors

We investigated some entomological factors underlying altitudinal prevalence variation in the Venezuelan Amazonia human onchocerciasis focus. Spatial and temporal variation in relative abundance, daily biting rate, proportion of parous flies, and monthly parous biting rate were studied for the three main simuliid vectors (based on their vectorial competence: Simulium oyapockense s.l. Floch & Abonnenc approximately = S. incrustatum Lutz << S. guianense s.l. Wise). Yanomami villages were selected among sentinel communities of the ivermectin control program, representing hypo- to hyperendemicity conditions of infection. Spatial variation was explored via increasing village altitude on two river systems (A: Ocamo-Putaco and B: Orinoco-Orinoquito). Temporal variation was studied between 1995 and 1999 by sampling the biting population during dry and rainy mouths. Environmental variables included monthly rainfall and maximum river height. Simuliid species composition itself varied along the altitudinal and prevalence gradient. S. oyapockense s.l. prevailed below 150 m. Above this altitude and up to 240 m, S. incrustatum and S. guianense s.l. became more frequently and evenly collected along A but not along B, where S. incrustatum remained absent. The daily biting rate of S. oyapockense s.l. was higher during the dry season along A, whereas the converse took place along B. Daily biting rate of S. incrustatum was lowest during early rains. By contrast, the daily biting rate of S. guianense s.l. was highest during this period. There was a significant negative cross-correlation between proportion of parous of S. oyapockense s.l. and river height (2 and 3 mo lagged), whereas this variable (1 and 2 mo lagged) was positively correlated with the proportion of parous flies for S. incrustatum. Monthly parous biting rate values suggest that the months contributing most to onchocerciasis transmission in the area are likely to be the dry season and the transition periods between seasons.

Biting behaviour and potential vector status of anthropophilic blackflies in a new focus of human onchocerciasis at Minaçu, central Brazil

Monthly collections were made of man-biting female blackflies: Simulium auripellitum Enderlein, S. guianense Wise, S. minusculum Lutz and S. nigrimanum Macquart (Diptera: Simuliidae) from four catching stations in the newly discovered focus of human onchocerciasis at Minaçu (13 degrees 35 minutes S 48 degrees 18 minutes W), 300 km north of Brasília in Goiás State. These provided baseline data on biting habits, population density and seasonal prevalence during the year before completion of the Serra da Mesa hydroelectric dam on the Rio Tocantins near Minaçu, in a project investigating the effect of dam construction on onchocerciasis transmission in the area. All four simuliid species were most abundant during the dry season, and only bit in low numbers (S. auripellitum S. minusculum, S. nigrimanum) or were absent (S. guianense) in the wet season. Simulium minusculum was the predominant species at all catching stations, being particularly abundant by the large River Tocantins. The other three species were mainly associated with smaller rivers. In the dry season, biting rhythms of S. minusculum varied with catching site, while S. nigrimanum showed peaks of activity in early morning and during the afternoon. Experimental infection with Onchocerca volvulus (Leuckart) (Nematoda: Onchocercidae), from a human volunteer, showed that this parasite could develop fully in the four simuliid species, which are all considered to be potential vectors in the area.

Population biology of human onchocerciasis

Human onchocerciasis (river blindness) is the filarial infection caused by Onchocerca volvulus and transmitted among people through the bites of the Simulium vector. Some 86 million people around the world are at risk of acquiring the nematode, with 18 million people infected and 600,000 visually impaired, half of them partially or totally blind. 99% of cases occur in tropical Africa; scattered foci exist in Latin America. Until recently control programmes, in operation since 1975, have consisted of antivectorial measures. With the introduction of ivermectin in 1988, safe and effective chemotherapy is now available. With the original Onchocerciasis Control Programme of West Africa coming to an end, both the new African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control and the Onchocerciasis Elimination Programme for the Americas, rely heavily on ivermectin self-sustained mass delivery. In consequence, the need for understanding the processes regulating parasite abundance in human and simuliid populations is of utmost importance. We present a simple mathematical framework built around recent analyses of exposure- and density-dependent processes operating, respectively, within the human and vector hosts. An expression for the basic reproductive ratio, R0, is derived and related to the minimum vector density required for parasite persistence in localities of West Africa in general and northern Cameroon in particular. Model outputs suggest that constraints acting against parasite establishment in both humans and vectors are necessary to reproduce field observations, but those in humans may not fully protect against reinfection. Analyses of host age-profiles of infection prevalence, intensity, and aggregation for increasing levels of endemicity and intensity of transmission in the Vina valley of northern Cameroon are in agreement with these results and discussed in light of novel work on onchocerciasis immunology.

Comparison of serological and parasitological assessments of Onchocerca volvulus transmission after 7 years of mass ivermectin treatment in Mexico

OBJECTIVE AND METHOD

To compare the utility of an ELISA using 3 recombinant antigens with that of the skin biopsy to estimate incidence of infections in a sentinel cohort of individuals living in an endemic community in southern Mexico during a set of 11 subsequent ivermectin treatments.

RESULTS

The apparent community prevalence of infection and microfilarial skin infection before and after 11 treatments with ivermectin plus nodulectomy were 78% and 13%, and 0.68 mf/mg and 0.04 mf/mg, respectively, as measured by skin biopsy. Of a group of 286 individuals participating in all surveys, a sentinel cohort of 42 mf and serologically negative individuals had been followed since 1994. The annual percentage of individuals becoming positive in this cohort was 24% (10/42), 28% (9/33), 0%, and 4.3% (1/23) in 1995, 1996, 1997 and 1998, respectively. Likewise, the incidence in children 5 years and under (n = 13) within this sentinel cohort was 15% (2/13), 18% (2/11), 0% and 11% (1/9), respectively. All individuals became positive to both tests simultaneously, indicating that seroconversion assessed infection incidence as accurately as skin biopsy in the sentinel group.

CONCLUSION

Incidence monitoring of a sentinel cohort provides an estimation of the parasite transmission in the community; it is less costly than massive sampling, and a finger prick blood test might be more acceptable in some communities.

Onchocerciasis in the Amazonian focus of southern Venezuela: altitude and blackfly species composition as predictors of endemicity to select communities for ivermectin control programmes

In preparation for an ivermectin distribution programme, the prevalence and intensity of infection due to Onchocerca volvulus as well as the species composition and abundance of Simulium vectors were investigated in 22 Yanomami communities situated along 2 altitudinal transects in the southern Venezuelan onchocerciasis focus. These transects corresponded to the Ocamo-Putaco and Orinoco-Orinoquito river systems, covering a range of elevation between 50 m and 740 m above sea level (asl). A total of 831 people underwent parasitological examination in this survey and an additional 196 patients from a previous study, at an altitude of 950 m, were included in the analysis. A total of 92,659 man-biting blackflies were collected and identified to morphospecies. S. oyapockense s.l. was the predominant simuliid up to 150 m asl, whereas S. guianense s.l. and S. incrustatum s.l. prevailed above 150 m. Communities located below 150 m were found to range from hypo- to mesoendemic; all villages above 150 m proved to be hyperendemic (> 60% microfilarial prevalence) and mass ivermectin treatment should be implemented. Age above 10-14 years, altitude of the village and biting rate of S. guianense s.l. up to 200 m asl were found to be statistically significant independent predictors of infection by multivariate logistic regression using a spline model. There were no differences in infection status according to sex. Above 200 m, microfilarial rate and density remained approximately constant, prevalence averaging 79% regardless of blackfly abundance. For the implementation of ivermectin-based onchocerciasis control programmes in the Amazonian focus, altitude and species composition of the blackfly population might be adopted as useful indicators aiding selection of the most affected communities. However, below 200 m additional parasitological indicators may also be necessary. As a direct result of this study, regular mass-ivermectin delivery to meso- and hyperendemic communities is now in progress.

Density-dependent processes in the transmission of human onchocerciasis: relationship between microfilarial intake and mortality of the simuliid vector

In order to construct an analytical model of onchocerciasis transmission, it is necessary to elucidate the functional relationships of the various population rate processes taking place within the human and vector hosts. Two previous papers have explored the evidence for density-dependent regulation in relation to microfilarial intake by, and larval development within, the Simulium host. This paper investigates the survivorship of wild-caught blackfly samples fed on subjects with different intensities of Onchocerca volvulus microfilarial infection. Analyses were based on data for Guatemalan S. ochraceum s.l. (possessing a well-developed cibarial armature), West African S. damnosum s.l. (forest species), and South Venezuelan S. guianense (the latter two lacking a toothed cibarium). The mean survival times of samples of the 3 species, kept under laboratory conditions, decreased as parasite intake increased, the rate of mortality being dependent on the fly's age (measured as time post-feeding) and on the worm load acquired. An empirical, time-dependent hazard function was fitted to observed death rates/fly/day which rose very shortly after engorgement, declined subsequently, and rose again throughout the extrinsic incubation period of the parasite. The parameters of this hazard model were all positively correlated with the density of microfilariae in the bloodmeal. Expressions of survivorship and life-expectancy as explicit functions of time post-feeding and mean parasite intake were derived. The average expectation of life at engorgement for uninfected flies in the laboratory was estimated to be around 1 week for both, armed and unarmed blackflies. Residual life-expectancy decreased with time post-feeding and microfilarial load in both categories of vectors. This decline (resulting from age- and parasite-dependent mortality rates) was much more pronounced in those species lacking a toothed fore-gut. Whilst a fraction of heavily infected S. ochraceum was able to survive the latent period of the parasite, being therefore potentially capable of transmitting the infection, equivalent worm loads in S. guianense resulted in a drastic reduction of the expectation of infective life. These results provide additional evidence to support the hypothesis that, in the case of intrinsically susceptible vectors, unarmed simuliids are more efficient at low microfilarial loads, when the transmission rate from human to vector host is higher, and parasite-induced fly mortality is negligible. The opposite takes place in armed flies, which perform poorly at low parasite burdens and better at heavier loads, with little parasite-induced vector death.

Polymerase chain reaction for detecting Onchocerca volvulus in pools of blackflies

The detection of Onchocerca volvulus infected simuliids or blackflies is routinely done by dissection and microscopic examination of individual flies, but this method is tedious and time consuming. Here we describe a method of detecting single O. volvulus infected blackflies in pools of uninfected blackflies. Using a PCR with Onchocerca specific primers it is possible to reproducibly detect one heavily infected blackfly in a pool of 80 flies, or to detect one blackfly inoculated with one microfilaria in a pool of 20 flies. With the method described large numbers of blackflies can be rapidly screened for the presence of O. volvulus infected flies.