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Fenta HM, Zewotir TT, Naidoo S, Naidoo RN, Mwambi H. Factors of acute respiratory infection among under-five children across sub-Saharan African countries using machine learning approaches. Sci Rep 2024; 14:15801. [PMID: 38982206 PMCID: PMC11233665 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-65620-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/13/2024] [Accepted: 06/21/2024] [Indexed: 07/11/2024] Open
Abstract
Symptoms of Acute Respiratory infections (ARIs) among under-five children are a global health challenge. We aimed to train and evaluate ten machine learning (ML) classification approaches in predicting symptoms of ARIs reported by mothers among children younger than 5 years in sub-Saharan African (sSA) countries. We used the most recent (2012-2022) nationally representative Demographic and Health Surveys data of 33 sSA countries. The air pollution covariates such as global annual surface particulate matter (PM 2.5) and the nitrogen dioxide available in the form of raster images were obtained from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The MLA was used for predicting the symptoms of ARIs among under-five children. We randomly split the dataset into two, 80% was used to train the model, and the remaining 20% was used to test the trained model. Model performance was evaluated using sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. A total of 327,507 under-five children were included in the study. About 7.10, 4.19, 20.61, and 21.02% of children reported symptoms of ARI, Severe ARI, cough, and fever in the 2 weeks preceding the survey years respectively. The prevalence of ARI was highest in Mozambique (15.3%), Uganda (15.05%), Togo (14.27%), and Namibia (13.65%,), whereas Uganda (40.10%), Burundi (38.18%), Zimbabwe (36.95%), and Namibia (31.2%) had the highest prevalence of cough. The results of the random forest plot revealed that spatial locations (longitude, latitude), particulate matter, land surface temperature, nitrogen dioxide, and the number of cattle in the houses are the most important features in predicting the diagnosis of symptoms of ARIs among under-five children in sSA. The RF algorithm was selected as the best ML model (AUC = 0.77, Accuracy = 0.72) to predict the symptoms of ARIs among children under five. The MLA performed well in predicting the symptoms of ARIs and associated predictors among under-five children across the sSA countries. Random forest MLA was identified as the best classifier to be employed for the prediction of the symptoms of ARI among under-five children.
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Affiliation(s)
- Haile Mekonnen Fenta
- Discipline of Public Health Medicine, School of Nursing and Public Health College of Health Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa.
- Department of Statistics, College of Science, Bahir Dar University, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia.
| | - Temesgen T Zewotir
- School of Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science, College of Agriculture Engineering and Science, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Saloshni Naidoo
- Discipline of Public Health Medicine, School of Nursing and Public Health College of Health Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Rajen N Naidoo
- Discipline of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Nursing and Public Health, College of Health Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Henry Mwambi
- School of Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science, College of Agriculture Engineering and Science, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
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Makrufardi F, Triasih R, Nurnaningsih N, Chung KF, Lin SC, Chuang HC. Extreme temperatures increase the risk of pediatric pneumonia: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Front Pediatr 2024; 12:1329918. [PMID: 38370139 PMCID: PMC10869493 DOI: 10.3389/fped.2024.1329918] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/01/2023] [Accepted: 01/22/2024] [Indexed: 02/20/2024] Open
Abstract
Introduction The impact of climate change on ambient temperatures threatens to worsen pediatric pneumonia-related outcomes considerably. This study examined the associations of temperature variation and extreme temperature with pediatric pneumonia-related events using a meta-analysis. Methods We systematically searched PubMed, Medline, Embase, and Web of Science databases for relevant literature, and the quality of evidence was assessed. Fixed and random-effects meta-analyses were performed to calculate the pooled relative risks (RRs) of the associations with pneumonia-related events. Results We observed that a 1°C temperature variation increased the RR of pneumonia events by 1.06-fold (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03-1.10). A 1°C temperature variation increased the RR by 1.10-fold of the pediatric pneumonia hospital admissions (95% CI: 1.00-1.21) and 1.06-fold of the pediatric pneumonia emergency department visits (95% CI: 1.01-1.10). Extreme cold increased the RR by 1.25-fold of the pediatric pneumonia events (95% CI: 1.07-1.45). A 1°C temperature variation increased the RR of pneumonia events in children by 1.19-fold (95% CI: 1.08-1.32), girls by 1.03-fold (95% CI: 1.02-1.05), and in temperate climate zones by 1.07-fold (95% CI: 1.03-1.11). Moreover, an increase in extreme cold increased the RR of pneumonia events in children by 2.43-fold (95% CI: 1.72-3.43), girls by 1.96-fold (95% CI: 1.29-2.98) and in temperate climate zones by 2.76-fold (95% CI: 1.71-4.47). Conclusion Our study demonstrated that pediatric pneumonia events are more prevalent among children, particularly girls, and individuals residing in temperate climate zones. Climate change represents an emergent public health threat, affecting pediatric pneumonia treatment and prevention.. Systematic Review Registration PROSPERO (CRD42022378610).
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Affiliation(s)
- Firdian Makrufardi
- International Ph.D. Program in Medicine, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
- Department of Child Health, Faculty of Medicine, Public Health, and Nursing, Universitas Gadjah Mada—Dr. Sardjito Hospital, Yogyakarta, Indonesia
| | - Rina Triasih
- Department of Child Health, Faculty of Medicine, Public Health, and Nursing, Universitas Gadjah Mada—Dr. Sardjito Hospital, Yogyakarta, Indonesia
| | - Nurnaningsih Nurnaningsih
- Department of Child Health, Faculty of Medicine, Public Health, and Nursing, Universitas Gadjah Mada—Dr. Sardjito Hospital, Yogyakarta, Indonesia
| | - Kian Fan Chung
- National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Sheng-Chieh Lin
- Department of Pediatrics, School of Medicine, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
- Division of Allergy, Asthma, and Immunology, Department of Pediatrics, Shuang Ho Hospital, Taipei Medical University, New Taipei City, Taiwan
| | - Hsiao-Chi Chuang
- National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- School of Respiratory Therapy, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
- Division of Pulmonary Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Shuang Ho Hospital, Taipei Medical University, New Taipei City, Taiwan
- Cell Physiology and Molecular Image Research Center, Wan Fang Hospital, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
- Graduate Institute of Medical Sciences, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
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Yang F, Servadio JL, Thanh NTL, Lam HM, Choisy M, Thai PQ, Thao TTN, Vy NHT, Phuong HT, Nguyen TD, Tam DTH, Hanks EM, Vinh H, Bjornstad ON, Chau NVV, Boni MF. A combination of annual and nonannual forces drive respiratory disease in the tropics. BMJ Glob Health 2023; 8:e013054. [PMID: 37935520 PMCID: PMC10632872 DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2023-013054] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/06/2023] [Accepted: 10/08/2023] [Indexed: 11/09/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION It is well known that influenza and other respiratory viruses are wintertime-seasonal in temperate regions. However, respiratory disease seasonality in the tropics is less well understood. In this study, we aimed to characterise the seasonality of influenza-like illness (ILI) and influenza virus in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. METHODS We monitored the daily number of ILI patients in 89 outpatient clinics from January 2010 to December 2019. We collected nasal swabs and tested for influenza from a subset of clinics from May 2012 to December 2019. We used spectral analysis to describe the periodic signals in the system. We evaluated the contribution of these periodic signals to predicting ILI and influenza patterns through lognormal and gamma hurdle models. RESULTS During 10 years of community surveillance, 66 799 ILI reports were collected covering 2.9 million patient visits; 2604 nasal swabs were collected, 559 of which were PCR-positive for influenza virus. Both annual and nonannual cycles were detected in the ILI time series, with the annual cycle showing 8.9% lower ILI activity (95% CI 8.8% to 9.0%) from February 24 to May 15. Nonannual cycles had substantial explanatory power for ILI trends (ΔAIC=183) compared with all annual covariates (ΔAIC=263) in lognormal regression. Near-annual signals were observed for PCR-confirmed influenza but were not consistent over time or across influenza (sub)types. The explanatory power of climate factors for ILI and influenza virus trends was weak. CONCLUSION Our study reveals a unique pattern of respiratory disease dynamics in a tropical setting influenced by both annual and nonannual drivers, with influenza dynamics showing near-annual periodicities. Timing of vaccination campaigns and hospital capacity planning may require a complex forecasting approach.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fuhan Yang
- Department of Biology and Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA
| | - Joseph L Servadio
- Department of Biology and Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA
| | - Nguyen Thi Le Thanh
- Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Ha Minh Lam
- Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Marc Choisy
- Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Pham Quang Thai
- National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Tran Thi Nhu Thao
- Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
- Department of Microbiology, Blavatnik Institute, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Nguyen Ha Thao Vy
- Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Huynh Thi Phuong
- Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Tran Dang Nguyen
- Department of Biology and Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA
- Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Dong Thi Hoai Tam
- Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Ephraim M Hanks
- Department of Statistics and Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA
| | - Ha Vinh
- Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
- Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Ottar N Bjornstad
- Department of Biology and Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA
| | - Nguyen Van Vinh Chau
- Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
- Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Maciej F Boni
- Department of Biology and Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA
- Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
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Wagatsuma K, Koolhof IS, Saito R. Nonlinear and Multidelayed Effects of Meteorological Drivers on Human Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection in Japan. Viruses 2023; 15:1914. [PMID: 37766320 PMCID: PMC10535838 DOI: 10.3390/v15091914] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/09/2023] [Revised: 09/07/2023] [Accepted: 09/11/2023] [Indexed: 09/29/2023] Open
Abstract
In this study, we aimed to characterize the nonlinear and multidelayed effects of multiple meteorological drivers on human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) infection epidemics in Japan. The prefecture-specific weekly time-series of the number of newly confirmed HRSV infection cases and multiple meteorological variables were collected for 47 Japanese prefectures from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2019. We combined standard time-series generalized linear models with distributed lag nonlinear models to determine the exposure-lag-response association between the incidence relative risks (IRRs) of HRSV infection and its meteorological drivers. Pooling the 2-week cumulative estimates showed that overall high ambient temperatures (22.7 °C at the 75th percentile compared to 16.3 °C) and high relative humidity (76.4% at the 75th percentile compared to 70.4%) were associated with higher HRSV infection incidence (IRR for ambient temperature 1.068, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.056-1.079; IRR for relative humidity 1.045, 95% CI, 1.032-1.059). Precipitation revealed a positive association trend, and for wind speed, clear evidence of a negative association was found. Our findings provide a basic picture of the seasonality of HRSV transmission and its nonlinear association with multiple meteorological drivers in the pre-HRSV-vaccination and pre-coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) era in Japan.
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Affiliation(s)
- Keita Wagatsuma
- Division of International Health (Public Health), Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, Niigata University, Niigata 951-8510, Japan;
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Tokyo 102-0083, Japan
| | - Iain S. Koolhof
- College of Health and Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Tasmania, Hobart 7000, Australia;
| | - Reiko Saito
- Division of International Health (Public Health), Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, Niigata University, Niigata 951-8510, Japan;
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Yang F, Servadio JL, Le Thanh NT, Lam HM, Choisy M, Thai PQ, Nhu Thao TT, Thao Vy NH, Phuong HT, Nguyen TD, Hoai Tam DT, Hanks EM, Vinh H, Bjornstad ON, Van Vinh Chau N, Boni MF. A combination of annual and nonannual forces drive respiratory disease in the tropics. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2023:2023.03.28.23287862. [PMID: 37034752 PMCID: PMC10081429 DOI: 10.1101/2023.03.28.23287862] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/29/2023]
Abstract
Background It is well known that influenza and other respiratory viruses are wintertime-seasonal in temperate regions. However, respiratory disease seasonality in the tropics remains elusive. In this study, we aimed to characterize the seasonality of influenza-like illness (ILI) and influenza virus in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), Vietnam. Methods We monitored the daily number of ILI patients in 89 outpatient clinics from January 2010 to December 2019. We collected nasal swabs and tested for influenza from a subset of clinics from May 2012 to December 2019. We used spectral analysis to describe the periodicities in the system. We evaluated the contribution of these periodicities to predicting ILI and influenza patterns through lognormal and gamma hurdle models. Findings During ten years of community surveillance, 66,799 ILI reports were collected covering 2.9 million patient visits; 2604 nasal swabs were collected 559 of which were PCR-positive for influenza virus. Both annual and nonannual cycles were detected in the ILI time series, with the annual cycle showing 8.9% lower ILI activity (95% CI: 8.8%-9.0%) from February 24 to May 15. Nonannual cycles had substantial explanatory power for ILI trends (ΔAIC = 183) compared to all annual covariates (ΔAIC = 263). Near-annual signals were observed for PCR-confirmed influenza but were not consistent along in time or across influenza (sub)types. Interpretation Our study reveals a unique pattern of respiratory disease dynamics in a tropical setting influenced by both annual and nonannual drivers. Timing of vaccination campaigns and hospital capacity planning may require a complex forecasting approach.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fuhan Yang
- Department of Biology and Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, 16802, United States
| | - Joseph L Servadio
- Department of Biology and Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, 16802, United States
| | - Nguyen Thi Le Thanh
- Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Ha Minh Lam
- Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Marc Choisy
- Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Pham Quang Thai
- National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Tran Thi Nhu Thao
- Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
- Department of Microbiology, Blavatnik Institute, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, 02115, United States
| | - Nguyen Ha Thao Vy
- Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Huynh Thi Phuong
- Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Tran Dang Nguyen
- Department of Biology and Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, 16802, United States
- Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Dong Thi Hoai Tam
- Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Ephraim M Hanks
- Department of Statistics and Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, 16802, United States
| | - Ha Vinh
- Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
- Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Ottar N Bjornstad
- Department of Biology and Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, 16802, United States
| | - Nguyen Van Vinh Chau
- Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
- Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Maciej F Boni
- Department of Biology and Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, 16802, United States
- Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
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Chan CM, Wahab AA, Ali A. Determining the Relationship of Meteorological Factors and Severe Pediatric Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Infection in Central Peninsular Malaysia. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2023; 20:1848. [PMID: 36767211 PMCID: PMC9914795 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph20031848] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/01/2022] [Revised: 01/13/2023] [Accepted: 01/14/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the most common pathogen causing viral respiratory tract infections among younger children worldwide. The influence of meteorological factors on RSV seasonal activity is well-established for temperate countries; however, in subtropical countries such as Malaysia, relatively stable temperate climates do not clearly support this trend, and the available data are contradictory. Better understanding of meteorological factors and seasonality of RSV will allow effective strategic health management relating to RSV infection, particularly immunoprophylaxis of high-risk infants with palivizumab. Retrospectively, from 2017 to 2021, we examined the association between various meteorological factors (rainfall, rainy days, temperature, and relative humidity) and the incidence of RSV in children aged less than 12 years in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. RSV activity peaked in two periods (July to August and October to December), which was significantly correlated with the lowest rainfall (p < 0.007) and number of rainy days (p < 0.005). RSV prevalence was also positively associated with temperature (p < 0.006) and inversely associated with relative humidity (p < 0.006). Based on our findings, we recommend that immunoprophylaxis with palivizumab be administered in children aged less than 2 years where transmission of RSV is postulated to be the highest after the end of two monsoon seasons.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chee Mun Chan
- Department of Pediatric, Faculty of Medicine, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Jalan Yaacob Latif, Kuala Lumpur 56000, Malaysia
| | - Asrul Abdul Wahab
- Department of Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Jalan Yaacob Latif, Kuala Lumpur 56000, Malaysia
| | - Adli Ali
- Department of Pediatric, Faculty of Medicine, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Jalan Yaacob Latif, Kuala Lumpur 56000, Malaysia
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Wambua J, Munywoki PK, Coletti P, Nyawanda BO, Murunga N, Nokes DJ, Hens N. Drivers of respiratory syncytial virus seasonal epidemics in children under 5 years in Kilifi, coastal Kenya. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0278066. [PMID: 36441757 PMCID: PMC9704647 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0278066] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/09/2022] [Accepted: 11/09/2022] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes significant childhood morbidity and mortality in the developing world. The determinants of RSV seasonality are of importance in designing interventions. They are poorly understood in tropical and sub-tropical regions in low- and middle-income countries. Our study utilized long-term surveillance data on cases of RSV associated with severe or very severe pneumonia in children aged 1 day to 59 months admitted to the Kilifi County Hospital. A generalized additive model was used to investigate the association between RSV admissions and meteorological variables (maximum temperature, rainfall, absolute humidity); weekly number of births within the catchment population; and school term dates. Furthermore, a time-series-susceptible-infected-recovered (TSIR) model was used to reconstruct an empirical transmission rate which was used as a dependent variable in linear regression and generalized additive models with meteorological variables and school term dates. Maximum temperature, absolute humidity, and weekly number of births were significantly associated with RSV activity in the generalized additive model. Results from the TSIR model indicated that maximum temperature and absolute humidity were significant factors. Rainfall and school term did not yield significant relationships. Our study indicates that meteorological parameters and weekly number of births potentially play a role in the RSV seasonality in this region. More research is required to explore the underlying mechanisms underpinning the observed relationships.
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Affiliation(s)
- James Wambua
- Kenya Medical Research Institute, KEMRI -Wellcome Trust Research Programme (KWTRP), Kilifi, Kenya
| | - Patrick K. Munywoki
- Kenya Medical Research Institute, KEMRI -Wellcome Trust Research Programme (KWTRP), Kilifi, Kenya
| | - Pietro Coletti
- Data Science Institute, I-BioStat, Hasselt University, Hasselt, Belgium
| | - Bryan O. Nyawanda
- Kenya Medical Research Institute, Center for Global Health Research, Kisumu, Kenya
| | - Nickson Murunga
- Kenya Medical Research Institute, KEMRI -Wellcome Trust Research Programme (KWTRP), Kilifi, Kenya
| | - D. James Nokes
- Kenya Medical Research Institute, KEMRI -Wellcome Trust Research Programme (KWTRP), Kilifi, Kenya
- School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom
| | - Niel Hens
- Data Science Institute, I-BioStat, Hasselt University, Hasselt, Belgium
- Centre for Health Economics Research and Modelling Infectious Diseases, Vaccine & Infectious Disease Institute, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium
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Almasi A, Reshadat S, Zangeneh A, Khezeli M, Teimouri R, Rahimi Naderi S, Saeidi S. Spatial modeling of mortality from acute lower respiratory infections in children under 5 years of age in 2000-2017: a global study. Clin Exp Pediatr 2021; 64:632-641. [PMID: 33752281 PMCID: PMC8650821 DOI: 10.3345/cep.2020.01438] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/22/2020] [Accepted: 03/05/2021] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Over the past few decades, various goals have been defined to reduce the mortality of children caused by acute lower respiratory infections (ALRIs) worldwide. However, few spatial studies to date have reported on ALRI deaths. PURPOSE We aimed to assess the spatial modeling of mortality from ALRI in children under 5 years of age during 2000-2017 using a global data. METHODS The data on the mortality of children under 5 years old caused by ALRI were initially obtained from the official website of the World Health Organization. The income status of their home countries was also gathered from the Country Income Groups (World Bank Classification) website and divided into 5 categories. After that, in the ArcGIS 10.6 environment, a database was created and the statistical tests and related maps were extracted. The Global Moran's I statistic, Getis-Ord Gi statistic, and geographically weighted regression were used for the analyses. In this study, higher z scores indicated the hot spots, while lower z scores indicated the cold spots. RESULTS In 2000-2017, child mortality showed a downward trend from 17.6 per 100,000 children to 8.1 and had a clustered pattern. Hot spots were concentrated in Asia in 2000 but shifted toward African countries by 2017. A cold spot that formed in Europe in 2007 showed an ascending trend by 2017. Based on the results of geographically weighted regression test, the regions identified as the hot spots of mortality from ALRI in children under 5 years old were among the middle-income countries (R2=0.01, adjusted R2=8.77). CONCLUSION While the total number of child deaths in 2000-2017 has decreased, the number of hot spots has increased among countries. This study also concluded that, during the study period, Central and Western Africa countries became the main new hot spots of deaths from ALRI.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ali Almasi
- Social Development & Health Promotion Research Center, Health Institute, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Sohyla Reshadat
- Social Development & Health Promotion Research Center, Health Institute, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Alireza Zangeneh
- Social Development & Health Promotion Research Center, Health Institute, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Mehdi Khezeli
- Social Development & Health Promotion Research Center, Health Institute, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Raziyeh Teimouri
- Department of Art, Architecture and Design, University of South Australia, Adelaide, Australia
| | - Samira Rahimi Naderi
- Department of Nursing, School of Nursing and Midwifery, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran
| | - Shahram Saeidi
- Social Development & Health Promotion Research Center, Health Institute, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
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Nourbakhsh S, Shoukat A, Zhang K, Poliquin G, Halperin D, Sheffield H, Halperin SA, Langley JM, Moghadas SM. Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of RSV infant and maternal immunization programs: A case study of Nunavik, Canada. EClinicalMedicine 2021; 41:101141. [PMID: 34622186 PMCID: PMC8479643 DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2021.101141] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/24/2021] [Revised: 08/30/2021] [Accepted: 09/08/2021] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Despite passive immunization with palivizumab to select high-risk children under two years of age, the health and economic burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) remains substantial. We evaluated the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of immunization programs with new generations of RSV prophylactics, including long-acting monoclonal antibodies (LAMA) and maternal vaccines, in terms of reducing hospitalizations in Nunavik, a Canadian Arctic region. METHODS We developed an agent-based model of RSV transmission and parameterized it with the demographics and burden of RSV in Nunavik, Québec. We compared various immunization strategies, taking into account the costs associated with program delivery and calculating the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) using quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained as a measure of effectiveness. Scenario analyses included immunization with palivizumab and LAMA for infants under one year of age, and maternal vaccination in mild, moderate, and severe RSV seasons. Data were analysed from November 1, 2019 to May 1, 2021. FINDINGS We found that a Nunavik pilot program with palivizumab which included healthy full-term infants aged 0-2 months in addition to those considered high-risk for complicated RSV disease is not cost-effective, compared to offering palivizumab only to preterm/chronically ill infants under 1 year of age. Using LAMA as prophylaxis produces ICER values of CAD $39,414/QALY (95% Credible Interval [CrI]: $39,314-$40,017) in a mild season (moderately cost-effective) and CAD $5,255/QALY (95% CrI: $5,222-$5,307) in a moderate season (highly cost-effective). LAMA was a dominant (cost-saving with negative incremental costs and positive incremental effects) strategy in a severe RSV season. Maternal vaccination combined with immunization of preterm/chronically ill infants 3-11 months was also a dominant (cost-saving) strategy in all seasons. INTERPRETATION The switch from palivizumab in RSV immunization programs to new prophylactics would lead to significant savings, with LAMA being an effective strategy without compromising benefits in terms of reducing hospitalizations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shokoofeh Nourbakhsh
- Agent-Based Modelling Laboratory, York University, Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3, Canada
| | - Affan Shoukat
- Agent-Based Modelling Laboratory, York University, Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3, Canada
| | - Kevin Zhang
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario M5S 1A8, Canada
| | - Guillaume Poliquin
- Department of Medical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, College of Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba R3E 0J9, Canada
- Office of the Scientific Director, National Microbiology Laboratories, Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, Manitoba R3E 3R2, Canada
| | - Donna Halperin
- School of Nursing, St. Francis Xavier University, Antigonish, Nova Scotia B2G 2W5, Canada
| | - Holden Sheffield
- Department of Paediatrics, Qikiqtani General Hospital, Iqaluit, Nunavut X0A 0H0, Canada
| | - Scott A. Halperin
- Canadian Center for Vaccinology, IWK Health Centre and Nova Scotia Health Authority, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia B3K 6R8, Canada
| | - Joanne M. Langley
- Canadian Center for Vaccinology, IWK Health Centre and Nova Scotia Health Authority, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia B3K 6R8, Canada
| | - Seyed M. Moghadas
- Agent-Based Modelling Laboratory, York University, Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3, Canada
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10
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Simões EAF, Dani V, Potdar V, Crow R, Satav S, Chadha MS, Hessong D, Carosone-Link P, Palaskar S, Satav A. Mortality From Respiratory Syncytial Virus in Children Under 2 Years of Age: A Prospective Community Cohort Study in Rural Maharashtra, India. Clin Infect Dis 2021; 73:S193-S202. [PMID: 34472578 PMCID: PMC8411248 DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciab481] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Although respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the most important viral cause of lower respiratory tract infection deaths in infants, there are few data on infant community deaths caused by RSV. METHODS This was an active surveillance of children younger than 2 years of age in 93 villages, 5 primary health centers, and 3 hospitals serving these villages. Village health workers and counselors at the health facilities monitored all lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) in consented subjects. Children with severe, or very severe LRTIs and all who died, had nasopharyngeal swabs collected for detection of RSV by molecular methods. RESULTS In the 12 134 subjects, there were 2064 episodes of severe LRTIs and 1732 of very severe LRTIs, of which 271 and 195, respectively, had RSV. Fifteen of 16 (94%) children with RSV died of LRTIs, 14 in the community and 1 in the hospital. The case fatality ratios for severe RSV LRTIs in the first 6 months of life were 3/52 (7.1%) and 1/36 (2.8%) in the community and hospital, respectively. Of those with very severe LRTIs in the community, 17.6% died. There were no very severe RSV LRTI hospital deaths. The adjusted RSV LRTI mortality rates ranged from 1.0 to 3.0/1000 child-years (CY) overall, and 2.0 to 6.1/1000 CY, accounting for 20% of the LRTI deaths and 10% of the postneonatal infant mortality. CONCLUSIONS Community deaths from RSV account for the majority of RSV LRTI deaths, and efforts at prevention should be preferentially directed at populations where access to care is limited.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eric A F Simões
- Department of Paediatric Infectious Diseases, University of Colorado School of Medicine and Children’s Hospital Colorado Aurora, Colorado, USA
- Centre for Global Health, Department of Epidemiology,Colorado School of Public Health, Aurora, Colorado, USA
| | - Vibhawari Dani
- MAHAN Trust Mahatma Gandhi Tribal Hospital, Karmgram, Utavali, Tahsil, Dharni, India
| | - Varsha Potdar
- National Institute of Virology, Indian Counsel of Medical Research, Pune, India
| | - Rowena Crow
- Department of Paediatric Infectious Diseases, University of Colorado School of Medicine and Children’s Hospital Colorado Aurora, Colorado, USA
| | - Shilpa Satav
- MAHAN Trust Mahatma Gandhi Tribal Hospital, Karmgram, Utavali, Tahsil, Dharni, India
| | - Mandeep S Chadha
- National Institute of Virology, Indian Counsel of Medical Research, Pune, India
| | - Danielle Hessong
- Department of Paediatric Infectious Diseases, University of Colorado School of Medicine and Children’s Hospital Colorado Aurora, Colorado, USA
| | - Phyllis Carosone-Link
- Department of Paediatric Infectious Diseases, University of Colorado School of Medicine and Children’s Hospital Colorado Aurora, Colorado, USA
| | - Sameer Palaskar
- MAHAN Trust Mahatma Gandhi Tribal Hospital, Karmgram, Utavali, Tahsil, Dharni, India
| | - Ashish Satav
- MAHAN Trust Mahatma Gandhi Tribal Hospital, Karmgram, Utavali, Tahsil, Dharni, India
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11
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Suryadevara M, Domachowske JB. Epidemiology and Seasonality of Childhood Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections in the Tropics. Viruses 2021; 13:696. [PMID: 33923823 PMCID: PMC8074094 DOI: 10.3390/v13040696] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/05/2021] [Revised: 02/03/2021] [Accepted: 02/19/2021] [Indexed: 12/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Infections caused by respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are a major cause of morbidity and mortality in young children worldwide. Understanding seasonal patterns of region-specific RSV activity is important to guide resource allocation for existing and future treatment and prevention strategies. The decades of excellent RSV surveillance data that are available from the developed countries of the world are incredibly instructive in advancing public health initiatives in those regions. With few exceptions, these developed nations are positioned geographically across temperate regions of the world. RSV surveillance across tropical regions of the world has improved in recent years, but remains spotty, and where available, still lacks the necessary longitudinal data to determine the amount of seasonal variation expected over time. However, existing and emerging data collected across tropical regions of the world do indicate that patterns of infection are often quite different from those so well described in temperate areas. Here, we provide a brief summary regarding what is known about general patterns of RSV disease activity across tropical Asia, Africa and South America, then offer additional country-specific details using examples where multiple reports and/or more robust surveillance data have become available.
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12
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Juliana AE, Tang MJ, Kemps L, Noort AC, Hermelijn S, Plötz FB, Zonneveld R, Wilschut JC. Viral causes of severe acute respiratory infection in hospitalized children and association with outcomes: A two-year prospective surveillance study in Suriname. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0247000. [PMID: 33606795 PMCID: PMC7894877 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0247000] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/05/2019] [Accepted: 01/29/2021] [Indexed: 12/28/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Viruses are the most frequent cause of severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) in children. It is currently unknown whether presence of a virus, the number of viruses, or type of virus, are associated with clinical outcomes of pediatric SARI in developing countries. METHODS Between 2012 and 2014 nasopharyngeal swabs and demographic and clinical variables were prospectively collected for surveillance of viral causes of SARI in Surinamese children within 48 hours after hospitalization. These swabs were tested for 18 respiratory viruses using a multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) panel to identify the specific viral causes of SARI, unknown to the treating physicians. In post hoc analyses we evaluated if the PCR results, and demographic and clinical characteristics, were associated with course of disease, duration of respiratory support, and length of stay (LOS). RESULTS Of a total of 316 analyzed children, 290 (92%) had one or more viruses. Rhinovirus/enterovirus (43%) and respiratory syncytial virus (34%) were most prevalent. Course of disease was mild in 234 (74%), moderate in 68 (22%), and severe in 14 (4%) children. Neither presence of a single virus, multiple viruses, or the type of virus, were different between groups. Prematurity and lower weight-for-age-z-score were independent predictors of a severe course of disease, longer duration of respiratory support, and longer LOS. CONCLUSIONS Viruses are common causes of pediatric SARI in Suriname, yet not necessarily associated with clinical outcomes. In developing countries, demographic and clinical variables can help to identify children at-risk for worse outcome, while PCR testing may be reserved to identify specific viruses, such as influenza, in specific patient groups or during outbreaks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Amadu E. Juliana
- Department of Pediatrics, Academic Pediatric Center Suriname, Academic Hospital Paramaribo, Paramaribo, Suriname
- * E-mail:
| | - Ming-Jan Tang
- Department of Pediatrics, Academic Pediatric Center Suriname, Academic Hospital Paramaribo, Paramaribo, Suriname
| | - Lex Kemps
- Department of Pediatrics, Academic Pediatric Center Suriname, Academic Hospital Paramaribo, Paramaribo, Suriname
| | - Albert C. Noort
- Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - Sandra Hermelijn
- Department of Medical Microbiology, Academic Hospital Paramaribo, Paramaribo, Suriname
| | - Frans B. Plötz
- Department of Pediatrics, Tergooi Hospitals, Blaricum, The Netherlands
- Department of Pediatrics, Amsterdam UMC, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Rens Zonneveld
- Department of Pediatrics, Academic Pediatric Center Suriname, Academic Hospital Paramaribo, Paramaribo, Suriname
| | - Jan C. Wilschut
- Department of Medical Microbiology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
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13
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Saadi S, Kallala O, Fodha I, Jerbi A, BenHamida-Rebai M, Ben Hadj Fredj M, Ben Hamouda H, Mathlouthi J, Khlifa M, Boussofara R, Boussetta K, Abroug S, Trabelsi A. Correlation between Children Respiratory Virus Infections and Climate Factors. J PEDIAT INF DIS-GER 2021. [DOI: 10.1055/s-0040-1722569] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/22/2022]
Abstract
Abstract
Objective Respiratory viruses are the most important cause of lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI) in children. Meteorological factors can influence viral outbreaks. The objective of this study was to determine the association between climate variables and respiratory virus detection.
Methods Multicenter prospective 1-year surveillance was conducted among children hospitalized for LRTI in Tunisia. Nasopharyngeal aspirates were tested by direct immunofluorescence assay (DIFA) for the detection of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV); adenovirus (AdV); influenza virus (IFV) A and B; and parainfluenza virus 1, 2, and 3 (PIV1/2/3). Samples were further analyzed by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction for the detection of human metapneumovirus (hMPV). Monthly meteorological data were determined by consulting the National Institute of Meteorology and the World Weather Online Meteorological Company websites. Pearson's correlation tests were used to determine the statistical association between the detection of respiratory viruses and climatic characteristics.
Results Among 572 patients, 243 (42.5%) were positive for at least one virus. The most frequently detected viruses by DIFA were RSV (30.0%), followed by IFVA (3.8%), IFVB (3.5%), PIV (0.9%), and AdV (0.9%). HMPV was detected in 13 RSV-negative samples (3.3%). Dual infections were detected in seven cases (1.2%). Monthly global respiratory viruses and RSV detections correlated significantly with temperature, rainfall, cloud cover, wind speed, wind temperature, and duration of sunshine. Monthly IFV detection significantly correlated with rainfall, wind speed, wind temperature, and duration of sunshine. HMPV detection significantly correlated with temperature and wind temperature.
Conclusion Respiratory viral outbreaks are clearly related to meteorological factors in Tunisia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Souhir Saadi
- Research Laboratory for “Epidemiology and Immunogenetics of Viral Infections,” Sahloul University Hospital, University of Sousse, Sousse, Tunisia
- Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Monastir, Monastir, Tunisia
| | - Ouafa Kallala
- Research Laboratory for “Epidemiology and Immunogenetics of Viral Infections,” Sahloul University Hospital, University of Sousse, Sousse, Tunisia
- Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Monastir, Monastir, Tunisia
| | - Imene Fodha
- Research Laboratory for “Epidemiology and Immunogenetics of Viral Infections,” Sahloul University Hospital, University of Sousse, Sousse, Tunisia
- Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Monastir, Monastir, Tunisia
| | - Amira Jerbi
- Research Laboratory for “Epidemiology and Immunogenetics of Viral Infections,” Sahloul University Hospital, University of Sousse, Sousse, Tunisia
- Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Monastir, Monastir, Tunisia
| | - Meriem BenHamida-Rebai
- Research Laboratory for “Epidemiology and Immunogenetics of Viral Infections,” Sahloul University Hospital, University of Sousse, Sousse, Tunisia
- Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Monastir, Monastir, Tunisia
| | - Mouna Ben Hadj Fredj
- Research Laboratory for “Epidemiology and Immunogenetics of Viral Infections,” Sahloul University Hospital, University of Sousse, Sousse, Tunisia
- Faculty of Sciences and Techniques, University of Kairouan, Kairouan, Tunisia
| | | | - Jihen Mathlouthi
- Neonatology Ward, Farhat Hached University Hospital, Sousse, Tunisia
| | - Monia Khlifa
- Pediatric Ward, Regional Hospital of Msaken, Sousse, Tunisia
| | | | | | - Saoussen Abroug
- Pediatric Ward, Sahloul University Hospital, Sousse, Tunisia
| | - Abdelhalim Trabelsi
- Research Laboratory for “Epidemiology and Immunogenetics of Viral Infections,” Sahloul University Hospital, University of Sousse, Sousse, Tunisia
- Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Monastir, Monastir, Tunisia
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14
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Ali ST, Tam CC, Cowling BJ, Yeo KT, Yung CF. Meteorological drivers of respiratory syncytial virus infections in Singapore. Sci Rep 2020; 10:20469. [PMID: 33235232 PMCID: PMC7686497 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-76888-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/11/2020] [Accepted: 10/19/2020] [Indexed: 01/18/2023] Open
Abstract
Meteorological drivers are known to affect transmissibility of respiratory viruses including respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), but there are few studies quantifying the role of these drivers. We used daily RSV hospitalization data to estimate the daily effective reproduction number (Rt), a real-time measure of transmissibility, and examined its relationship with environmental drivers in Singapore from 2005 through 2015. We used multivariable regression models to quantify the proportion of the variance in Rt explained by each meteorological driver. After constructing a basic model for RSV seasonality, we found that by adding meteorological variables into this model we were able to explain a further 15% of the variance in RSV transmissibility. Lower and higher value of mean temperature, diurnal temperature range (DTR), precipitation and relative humidity were associated with increased RSV transmissibility, while higher value of maximum wind speed was correlated with decreased RSV transmissibility. We found that a number of meteorological drivers were associated with RSV transmissibility. While indoor conditions may differ from ambient outdoor conditions, our findings are indicative of a role of ambient temperature, humidity and wind speed in affecting RSV transmission that could be biological or could reflect indirect effects via the consequences on time spent indoors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sheikh Taslim Ali
- WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing, Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Pok Fu Lam, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Clarence C Tam
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Tahir Foundation Building, 12 Science Drive 2, Singapore, 117549, Singapore.
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
| | - Benjamin J Cowling
- WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing, Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Pok Fu Lam, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Kee Thai Yeo
- Department of Neonatology, KK Women's and Children's Hospital, Singapore, Singapore
- Infectious Diseases Service, KK Women's and Children's Hospital, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Chee Fu Yung
- Department of Neonatology, KK Women's and Children's Hospital, Singapore, Singapore
- Infectious Diseases Service, KK Women's and Children's Hospital, Singapore, Singapore
- Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore
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15
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Chiao C, Deji-Abiodun O. A global analysis of the regional variation in the symptoms of acute respiratory infection during childhood: Epidemics and their association with environmental vulnerability. Health Place 2020; 65:102400. [PMID: 32827939 DOI: 10.1016/j.healthplace.2020.102400] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/23/2020] [Revised: 07/13/2020] [Accepted: 07/14/2020] [Indexed: 11/15/2022]
Abstract
Using Demographic and Health Surveys from 48 low-income and middle-income countries (N = 432,860), we investigated whether or not the presence of symptoms of acute respiratory infection (ARI) are contingent on environmental vulnerabilities such as the region, the level of ambient air pollution, community orphanhood status, and household poverty among young children under five. In addition, we also examined whether such an effect may be a consequence of socioeconomic development and/or lifestyle. Using multilevel logistic regression models, environmental vulnerability was found to be significantly associated with the likelihood of childhood ARI symptoms and this association seemed to be related to the level of ambient air pollution. Our findings suggest that important roles are played by both geographic region and ambient air pollution, and that these factors may disproportionately shape a child's risk of ARI symptoms in a global context.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chi Chiao
- Institute of Health and Welfare Policy, Institute of Public Health, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan.
| | - Oluwafunmilade Deji-Abiodun
- Department of Medicine and Center for Global Health, University of Chicago, 5841 S. Maryland Avenue, MC 2021, Chicago, IL, 60637, USA
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16
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Respiratory syncytial virus infection trend is associated with meteorological factors. Sci Rep 2020; 10:10931. [PMID: 32616819 PMCID: PMC7331681 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-67969-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/24/2020] [Accepted: 06/16/2020] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infects young children and causes influenza-like illness. RSV circulation and prevalence differ among countries and climates. To better understand whether climate factors influence the seasonality of RSV in Thailand, we examined RSV data from children ≤ 5 years-old who presented with respiratory symptoms from January 2012–December 2018. From a total of 8,209 nasopharyngeal samples, 13.2% (1,082/8,209) was RSV-positive, of which 37.5% (406/1,082) were RSV-A and 36.4% (394/1,082) were RSV-B. The annual unimodal RSV activity from July–November overlaps with the rainy season. Association between meteorological data including monthly average temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, and wind speed for central Thailand and the incidence of RSV over 7-years was analyzed using Spearman’s rank and partial correlation. Multivariate time-series analysis with an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model showed that RSV activity correlated positively with rainfall (r = 0.41) and relative humidity (r = 0.25), but negatively with mean temperature (r = − 0.27). The best-fitting ARIMA (1,0,0)(2,1,0)12 model suggests that peak RSV activity lags the hottest month of the year by 4 months. Our results enable possible prediction of RSV activity based on the climate and could help to anticipate the yearly upsurge of RSV in this region.
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17
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Hossain MZ, Tong S, Bambrick H, Khan AF, Hore SK, Hu W. Weather factors, PCV intervention and childhood pneumonia in rural Bangladesh. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2020; 64:561-569. [PMID: 31848699 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-019-01842-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/26/2019] [Revised: 10/18/2019] [Accepted: 12/03/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Available evidence is limited on the association between weather factors and childhood pneumonia, especially in developing countries. This study examined the effects of weather variability on childhood pneumonia after the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) intervention in rural Bangladesh. Data on pneumonia cases and weather variables (temperature and relative humidity) between the 1st January 2012 and the 31st December 2016 were collected from Matlab Hospital, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, and Bangladesh Meteorological Department, respectively. Time series cross-correlation functions were applied to identify the time lags of the effect of each weather factor on pneumonia. Generalized linear regression model with Poisson link was used to quantify the association between weather factors and childhood pneumonia after adjustment of PCV intervention. The annual incidence rate of pneumonia reduced from 5691/100,000 to 2000/100,000 after PCV intervention. Generalized linear regression model suggested that temperature had a negative association with childhood pneumonia (relative risk, 0.985; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.974-0.997), and PCV intervention was a protective factor with the relative risk estimate of 0.489 (95% CI, 0.435-0.551). However, no substantial association was found with relative humidity. PCV intervention appeared protective against childhood pneumonia, and temperature might be associated with this disease in children. Our findings may help inform public health policy, including the potential of development of early warning systems based on weather factors and PCV for the control and prevention of pneumonia in lower middle-income country like Bangladesh.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mohammad Zahid Hossain
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Shilu Tong
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- Shanghai Children's Medical Center, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
- School of Public Health, Institute of Environment and Population Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
| | - Hilary Bambrick
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Al Fazal Khan
- International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research Bangladesh (icddr,b), Mohakhali, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Samar Kumar Hore
- Organization for Population Health Environment & Nutrition, Abhaynagar, Jashore, Bangladesh
| | - Wenbiao Hu
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
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18
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Zhang H, Wen S, Zheng J, Chen X, Lv F, Liu L. Meteorological factors affecting respiratory syncytial virus infection: A time-series analysis. Pediatr Pulmonol 2020; 55:713-718. [PMID: 31909893 DOI: 10.1002/ppul.24629] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/18/2019] [Accepted: 12/17/2019] [Indexed: 11/11/2022]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection is a major cause of hospitalization in children. Meteorological factors are known to influence seasonal RSV epidemics, but the relationship between meteorological factors and RSV infection in children is not well understood. We aimed to explore the relationship between meteorological factors and RSV infections among hospitalized children, using different statistical models. METHODS We conducted a retrospective review concerning children with RSV infections admitted to a tertiary pediatric hospital in Wenzhou, China, between January 2008 and December 2017. The relationship between meteorological factors (average daily temperatures, average daily relative humidity, rainfall, rainfall days, and wind speed) and the incidence of RSV in hospitalized children was analyzed using three time-series models, namely an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, a generalized additive model (GAM), and a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-based model. RESULTS In total, 15 858 (17.6%) children tested positive for RSV infection. The ARIMA model revealed a marked seasonal pattern in the RSV detection rate, which peaked in winter and spring. The model was a good predictor of RSV incidence (R2 : 83.5%). The GAM revealed that a lower temperature and higher wind speed preceded increases in RSV detection. The LASSO-based model revealed that temperature and relative humidity were negatively correlated with RSV detection. CONCLUSIONS Seasonality of RSV infection in hospitalized children correlated strongly with temperature. The LASSO-based model can be used to predict annual RSV epidemics using weather forecast data.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hailin Zhang
- Department of Pediatrics, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China.,Department of Children's Respiratory Disease, The Second Affiliated Hospital and Yuying Children's Hospital, Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, China
| | - Shunhang Wen
- Department of Children's Respiratory Disease, The Second Affiliated Hospital and Yuying Children's Hospital, Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, China
| | - Jingwei Zheng
- Department of Clinical Research, Eye Hospital, Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, China
| | - Xiaofang Chen
- Department of Children's Respiratory Disease, The Second Affiliated Hospital and Yuying Children's Hospital, Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, China
| | - Fangfang Lv
- Department of Children's Respiratory Disease, The Second Affiliated Hospital and Yuying Children's Hospital, Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, China
| | - Li Liu
- Department of Pediatrics, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China
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Baker RE, Mahmud AS, Wagner CE, Yang W, Pitzer VE, Viboud C, Vecchi GA, Metcalf CJE, Grenfell BT. Epidemic dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus in current and future climates. Nat Commun 2019; 10:5512. [PMID: 31797866 PMCID: PMC6892805 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-13562-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 69] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/06/2019] [Accepted: 11/14/2019] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
A key question for infectious disease dynamics is the impact of the climate on future burden. Here, we evaluate the climate drivers of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), an important determinant of disease in young children. We combine a dataset of county-level observations from the US with state-level observations from Mexico, spanning much of the global range of climatological conditions. Using a combination of nonlinear epidemic models with statistical techniques, we find consistent patterns of climate drivers at a continental scale explaining latitudinal differences in the dynamics and timing of local epidemics. Strikingly, estimated effects of precipitation and humidity on transmission mirror prior results for influenza. We couple our model with projections for future climate, to show that temperature-driven increases to humidity may lead to a northward shift in the dynamic patterns observed and that the likelihood of severe outbreaks of RSV hinges on projections for extreme rainfall.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rachel E Baker
- Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
| | - Ayesha S Mahmud
- Planetary Health Alliance, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.,Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA
| | - Caroline E Wagner
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Wenchang Yang
- Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Virginia E Pitzer
- Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Cecile Viboud
- Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Gabriel A Vecchi
- Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.,Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - C Jessica E Metcalf
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.,Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Bryan T Grenfell
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.,Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.,Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
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Vitkina TI, Veremchuk LV, Mineeva EE, Gvozdenko TA, Antonyuk MV, Novgorodtseva TP, Grigorieva EA. The influence of weather and climate on patients with respiratory diseases in Vladivostok as a global health implication. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH SCIENCE & ENGINEERING 2019; 17:907-916. [PMID: 32030162 PMCID: PMC6985342 DOI: 10.1007/s40201-019-00407-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/03/2018] [Accepted: 10/10/2019] [Indexed: 05/08/2023]
Abstract
PURPOSE To identify the formation of meteopathic reactions in patients with respiratory diseases under the influence of extreme weather changes in Vladivostok. METHODS The short-term meteopathic reaction in patients with respiratory diseases to the impact of "Weather Complex", consisting of nine weather parameters, on the day of patient's examination and on 1 and 2 days before the examination, was assessed. 146 acclimatized residents of Vladivostok (29 patients with chronic bronchitis, 51 patients with controlled asthma, 39 patients with uncontrolled asthma and 27 healthy volunteers) were examined. Pulmonary function (PF) was studied by spirography and by body plethysmography. RESULTS The adaptive-compensatory response of PF in patients with respiratory diseases to weather decreases depending on the disease severity, resulting in the development of meteodependence. The impact of "Weather Complex" on a human body is primarily reflected in PF, and the reaction of metabolic parameters is manifested with a 1-2 days time lag. Glutathione peroxidase and glutathione reductase, key factors in maintaining oxidative cell balance, play the most important role in the formation of a compensatory response to weather. In the light of the global health implication, recommendations are suggested to adjust the treatment of patients with respiratory pathology in specific conditions of abruptly changeable weather. CONCLUSIONS The maritime monsoon climate creates an additional strain on both respiratory system and systems that ensure the peroxidation balance worsening bronchopulmonary pathology.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tat’yana I. Vitkina
- Vladivostok Branch of Far Eastern Scientific Center of Physiology and Pathology of Respiration – Research Institute of Medical Climatology and Rehabilitative Treatment, Vladivostok, Russian Federation
| | - Lyudmila V. Veremchuk
- Vladivostok Branch of Far Eastern Scientific Center of Physiology and Pathology of Respiration – Research Institute of Medical Climatology and Rehabilitative Treatment, Vladivostok, Russian Federation
| | - Elena E. Mineeva
- Vladivostok Branch of Far Eastern Scientific Center of Physiology and Pathology of Respiration – Research Institute of Medical Climatology and Rehabilitative Treatment, Vladivostok, Russian Federation
| | - Tat’yana A. Gvozdenko
- Vladivostok Branch of Far Eastern Scientific Center of Physiology and Pathology of Respiration – Research Institute of Medical Climatology and Rehabilitative Treatment, Vladivostok, Russian Federation
| | - Marina V. Antonyuk
- Vladivostok Branch of Far Eastern Scientific Center of Physiology and Pathology of Respiration – Research Institute of Medical Climatology and Rehabilitative Treatment, Vladivostok, Russian Federation
| | - Tat’yana P. Novgorodtseva
- Vladivostok Branch of Far Eastern Scientific Center of Physiology and Pathology of Respiration – Research Institute of Medical Climatology and Rehabilitative Treatment, Vladivostok, Russian Federation
| | - Elena A. Grigorieva
- Institute of Complex Analysis of Regional Problems Far Eastern Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Birobidzhan, Russian Federation
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Yew SM, Tan KL, Yeo SK, Ng KP, Kuan CS. Molecular epidemiology of respiratory viruses among Malaysian Young children with a confirmed respiratory infection during 2014-2015. J Thorac Dis 2019; 11:4626-4633. [PMID: 31903251 PMCID: PMC6940242 DOI: 10.21037/jtd.2019.10.69] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/07/2018] [Accepted: 08/27/2019] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND In many developing countries, acute respiratory tract infections (ARTIs) are the main cause of morbidity and mortality among young children. This study aims to evaluate the molecular epidemiology of respiratory viruses among Malaysian children with confirmed respiratory infections between July 2014 and July 2015. METHODS A total of 394 nasopharyngeal swabs were collected prospectively from children age 0-5 years old with ARTIs from hospitals in Kuala Lumpur. Respiratory viral panel (RVP) assay was used to identify the viral aetiology of respiratory infections. RESULTS From a total of 394 samples, the positive detection rate was 79.9% (n=315). A total of 15 types of RNA viruses and a single type of DNA virus were detected. Enterovirus/rhinovirus (n=112, 28.4%), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) (n=85, 21.6%), adenovirus (n=64, 16.2%), human bocavirus (n=34, 8.6%), and human metapneumovirus (n=29, 7.4%) were the five predominant viruses. Enterovirus/rhinovirus and RSV constituted most of the viral respiratory infections among young children, especially among children less than 1 year old. No coronavirus was detected among children between 3 and 5 years old. Co-infection caused by 2 or 3 respiratory viruses were detected in 52 patients (13.2%). Enterovirus/rhinovirus, adenovirus, and human bocavirus demonstrated pronounced seasonality. The infection rate peaked during mid-year, while the lowest activity occurred during early of the year. CONCLUSIONS The use of molecular assay as a routine diagnostic in the hospitals can improve the diagnosis and management of respiratory tract infections among children.
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Affiliation(s)
- Su Mei Yew
- Department of Medical Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, University of Malaya, 59400 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
- Neogenix Laboratoire Sdn Bhd (1191967-W), 47301 Petaling Jaya, Selangor, Malaysia
| | - Ka-Liong Tan
- Faculty of Medicine & Health Sciences, Universiti Sains Islam Malaysia, Pandan Indah, 55100 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
- Centre for Holistic Intelligence, Institut Sains Islam, Universiti Sains Islam Malaysia (USIM), 71800 Nilai, Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia
| | - Siok Koon Yeo
- School of Bioscience, Taylor’s University Lakeside Campus, 47500 Subang Jaya, Selangor Darul Ehsan, Malaysia
| | - Kee Peng Ng
- Department of Medical Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, University of Malaya, 59400 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
| | - Chee Sian Kuan
- Department of Medical Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, University of Malaya, 59400 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
- Neogenix Laboratoire Sdn Bhd (1191967-W), 47301 Petaling Jaya, Selangor, Malaysia
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Amsalu ET, Akalu TY, Gelaye KA. Spatial distribution and determinants of acute respiratory infection among under-five children in Ethiopia: Ethiopian Demographic Health Survey 2016. PLoS One 2019; 14:e0215572. [PMID: 31009506 PMCID: PMC6476529 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0215572] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/21/2018] [Accepted: 04/05/2019] [Indexed: 01/15/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Childhood acute respiratory infection remains the commonest global cause of morbidity and mortality among under-five children. In Ethiopia, it remains the highest burden of the health care system. The problem varies in space and time, and exploring its spatial distribution has supreme importance for monitoring and designing effective intervention programs. Methods A two stage stratified cluster sampling technique was utilized along with the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) data. About 10,006 under-five children were included in this study. Bernoulli model was used to investigate the presence of purely spatial clusters of under-five acute respiratory infection using SaTScan.ArcGIS version 10.1 was used to visualize the distribution of pneumonia cases across the country. Mixed-effect logistic regression model was used to identify the determinants of acute respiratory infection. Result In this study, acute respiratory infection among under-five children had spatial variations across the country (Moran’s I: 0.34, p < 0.001). Acute respiratory infection among under-five children in Tigray (p < 0.001) and Oromia (p < 0.001) National Regional States clustered spatially. History of diarrhoea (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) = 4.71, 95% CI: (3.89–5.71))), 45–59 months of age (AOR = 0.63, 95% CI: (0.45–0.89)), working mothers (AOR = 1.27, 95% CI: (1.06–1.52)), mothers’ secondary school education (AOR = 0.65; 95% CI: (0.43–0.99)), and stunting (AOR = 1.24, 95% CI: (1.00–1.54)) were predictors of under-five acute respiratory infection. Conclusion and recommendation In Ethiopia, acute respiratory infection had spatial variations across the country. Areas with excess acute respiratory infection need high priority in allocation of resources including: mobilizing resources, skilled human power, and improved access to health facilities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Erkihun Tadesse Amsalu
- Department of Public health, College of Medicine and Health sciences, Wollo University, Dessie, Ethiopia
| | - Temesgen Yihunie Akalu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Institute of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia
- * E-mail:
| | - Kassahun Alemu Gelaye
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Institute of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia
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Hossain MZ, Bambrick H, Wraith D, Tong S, Khan AF, Hore SK, Hu W. Sociodemographic, climatic variability and lower respiratory tract infections: a systematic literature review. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2019; 63:209-219. [PMID: 30680618 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-018-01654-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/20/2018] [Revised: 11/15/2018] [Accepted: 11/29/2018] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Pneumonia is the leading cause of mortality and morbidity in developing countries, particularly for children and elderly. The main objective of this review paper is to review the epidemiological evidence about the effects of sociodemographic and climatic variability on pneumonia and other lower respiratory tract infections. A detailed literature search was conducted in PubMed and Scopus following PRISMA guidelines. The articles, which considered the effect of only climatic or both climatic and sociodemographic factors on pneumonia and other lower respiratory tract infections, included in this review. A total thirty-four relevant articles were reviewed. Of 34 studies, only 14 articles (41%) examined the joint effects of sociodemographic and climate factors on pneumonia and other lower respiratory infections while most of them (59%) assessed climate factors separately. Among these fourteen, only three articles (8.8%) considered detailed sociodemographic factors. All of the reviewed articles suggested different degrees of positive or negative relationship of temperature with pneumonia or other lower respiratory tract infections. Fifteen (44%) articles suggested an association with relative humidity and 13 (38%) with rainfall. Only 3 articles (8.8%) found a relationship with wind speed. Three articles (8.8%) considered other risk factors such as particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) and particulate matter 10 (PM10). One study among the reviewed articles used spatial analysis methods but this study did not examine the joint effects. Among the reviewed articles, 18 (53%) articles used different time series models, one article (3%) used spatiotemporal time series model, 8 (23%) studies used other models and rest 7 (21%) studies used simple descriptive analysis. A total of 18 studies (53%) were conducted in Asia, most of them in China. There were 6 studies (17%) in Europe and 8 studies (23%) in America (South, North and Central). In Africa and Oceania, only one study was found for each region. The joint effect of climate and sociodemographic factors on pneumonia and other lower respiratory tract infections remain to be determined and further research is highly recommended for future prevention of this important and common disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mohammad Zahid Hossain
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Hilary Bambrick
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Darren Wraith
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Shilu Tong
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- Shanghai Children's Medical Centre, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
- School of Public Health, Institute of Environment and Population Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
| | - Al Fazal Khan
- International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b), Mohakhali, Dhaka, 1212, Bangladesh
| | - Samar Kumar Hore
- International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b), Mohakhali, Dhaka, 1212, Bangladesh
| | - Wenbiao Hu
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
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Althouse BM, Flasche S, Minh LN, Thiem VD, Hashizume M, Ariyoshi K, Anh DD, Rodgers GL, Klugman KP, Hu H, Yoshida LM. Seasonality of respiratory viruses causing hospitalizations for acute respiratory infections in children in Nha Trang, Vietnam. Int J Infect Dis 2018; 75:18-25. [PMID: 30118916 PMCID: PMC7110808 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2018.08.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/09/2018] [Revised: 08/01/2018] [Accepted: 08/02/2018] [Indexed: 01/21/2023] Open
Abstract
Hospitalizations for respiratory viruses are seasonal in Vietnam Respiratory syncytial virus peaks in the late summer months, and inuenza A in April to June No clear seasonality is seen for human rhinovirus Human parainuenza 3 and human rhinovirus are positively associated with dew point This work can inform the timing of inuenza and RSV vaccination and the judicious use of antibiotics in Vietnam
Background Acute respiratory infections (ARIs) are the most common causes of death in children under 5 years of age. While the etiology of most pneumonia and ARI episodes is undiagnosed, a broad range of ARI-causing viruses circulate widely in South East Asia. However, the patterns and drivers of the seasonal transmission dynamics are largely unknown. Here we identify the seasonal patterns of multiple circulating viruses associated with hospitalizations for ARIs in Nha Trang, Vietnam. Methods Hospital based enhanced surveillance of childhood ARI is ongoing at Khanh Hoa General Hospital in Nha Trang. RT-PCR was performed to detect 13 respiratory viruses in nasopharyngeal samples from enrolled patients. Seasonal patterns of childhood ARI hospital admissions of various viruses were assessed, as well as their association with rainfall, temperature, and dew point. Results Respiratory syncytial virus peaks in the late summer months, and influenza A in April to June. We find significant associations between detection of human parainfluenza 3 and human rhinovirus with the month's mean dew point. Using a cross-wavelet transform we find a significant out-of-phase relationship between human parainfluenza 3 and temperature and dew point. Conclusions Our results are important for understanding the temporal risk associated with circulating pathogens in Southern Central Vietnam. Specifically, our results can inform timing of routing seasonal influenza vaccination and for when observed respiratory illness is likely viral, leading to judicious use of antibiotics in the region.
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Affiliation(s)
- Benjamin M Althouse
- Institute for Disease Modeling, Bellevue, WA, USA; University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM, USA.
| | - Stefan Flasche
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK, USA
| | - Le Nhat Minh
- National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Vu Dinh Thiem
- National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | | | - Koya Ariyoshi
- Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, Japan
| | - Dang Duc Anh
- National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | | | | | - Hao Hu
- Institute for Disease Modeling, Bellevue, WA, USA
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Janet S, Broad J, Snape MD. Respiratory syncytial virus seasonality and its implications on prevention strategies. Hum Vaccin Immunother 2018; 14:234-244. [PMID: 29194014 PMCID: PMC5791579 DOI: 10.1080/21645515.2017.1403707] [Citation(s) in RCA: 46] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/18/2017] [Accepted: 11/06/2017] [Indexed: 01/04/2023] Open
Abstract
With maternal and infant vaccines against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in development, it is timely to consider how the deployment of these vaccines might vary according to local RSV disease seasonality. In temperate regions RSV infection is predictably limited to a period of 3 to 5 months, while in tropical regions disease seasonality is often both more variable and more prolonged. Accordingly, in tropical regions a year-round immunisation schedule for both maternal and infant immunisation might be appropriate. In contrast, in temperate regions the benefit of year-round maternal immunisation would be heavily dependent on the duration of protection this provided, potentially necessitating a strategy directed at children due to be born in the months immediately prior to the RSV season. This review will consider the impact of seasonality on maternal and infant immunisation strategies against RSV, and the potential of an alternative approach of passive immunisation for all infants immediately prior to the RSV season.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sophie Janet
- Oxford Vaccine Group, Department of Paediatrics, University of Oxford and the NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, Oxford, UK
| | - Jonathan Broad
- Oxford Vaccine Group, Department of Paediatrics, University of Oxford and the NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, Oxford, UK
| | - Matthew D. Snape
- Oxford Vaccine Group, Department of Paediatrics, University of Oxford and the NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, Oxford, UK
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Tsabouri S, Gkoutsias A, Lolis C, Makis A, Chaliasos N, Bartzokas A. Impact of meteorological factors on the emergence of bronchiolitis in North-western Greece. Allergol Immunopathol (Madr) 2018; 46:24-30. [PMID: 28483338 DOI: 10.1016/j.aller.2017.01.009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/16/2016] [Accepted: 01/24/2017] [Indexed: 10/19/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the relationship between meteorological factors in North-western Greece and the incidence of bronchiolitis. METHODS Meteorological data (air temperature and rainfall) for Ioannina city in North-western Greece and medical data from hospitalised patients at University Hospital of Ioannina were collected between January 2002 and December 2013. The association between meteorological factors and rate of hospitalisation due to bronchiolitis was investigated. The data processing was done using the Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient and applying the chi-square test at contingency tables of the parameters. RESULTS Of the 792 hospitalised cases, 670 related to infants (<1 year) and 122 concerned patients aged 1-2 years old. The disease is more common among boys (59.5%) than girls (40.5%). The disease course through the year has a double variation with a main maximum in March and a main minimum in August. The statistical study showed statistically significant correlation of bronchiolitis with: (a) the temperature parameters on an annual basis; (b) precipitation in autumn and dryness in spring; and (c) with sudden changes in diurnal temperature range on an annual basis. CONCLUSION A peak incidence of bronchiolitis was noticed in cold and wet seasons during the five days preceding hospitalisation.
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Rivera-Sepulveda A, Garcia-Rivera EJ. Epidemiology of bronchiolitis: a description of emergency department visits and hospitalizations in Puerto Rico, 2010-2014. Trop Med Health 2017; 45:24. [PMID: 29021713 PMCID: PMC5623968 DOI: 10.1186/s41182-017-0064-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/11/2017] [Accepted: 08/11/2017] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Little is known about the epidemiology of bronchiolitis as a clinical diagnosis and its impact on emergency department visits and hospitalizations in tropical and semitropical regions. We described the epidemiology of bronchiolitis emergency visits and hospitalizations, its temporal trend and geographic distribution in Puerto Rico between 2010 and 2014. METHODS We performed a retrospective descriptive analysis of a representative sample of privately insured children with bronchiolitis from January 2010 to December 2014. Data was provided by the largest private health insurer in Puerto Rico and identified children < 24 months of age with bronchiolitis by International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision code 466, 466.11, and 466.19. Chi-square and one-way ANOVA compared sex, age, diagnosis, and severity across the years. Joinpoint Poisson regression analysis evaluated the temporal trend distribution of bronchiolitis hospitalizations per calendar year. A P value less than 0.05 was statistically significant. RESULTS During the study period, the annual proportion of emergency department visits and hospitalizations due to bronchiolitis increased from 3 to 5%, and 26 to 38%, respectively. The annual incidence rate of hospitalizations was 3.2 per 1000 privately insured children < 24 months. Non-RSV bronchiolitis was the most frequent diagnosis (51%). Hospitalizations occurred year-round, but increased significantly from August through December. Most children hospitalized resided in the metropolitan San Juan (35%) and surrounding urban areas. Total hospital charges decreased from $3.78 to $3.74 million, with an average cost per hospitalization of $4320.12 (11.3% increase; P = 0.0015). CONCLUSIONS This is the first study that evaluates the epidemiological characteristics of bronchiolitis in a primarily Hispanic population, living in a tropical country, and using data from a privately insured population. We found a small but significant increase in proportion of emergency visits and hospitalizations. Temporal trend shows year-round hospitalizations with an earlier seasonal peak and longer duration, consistent with Puerto Rico's seasonal rainfall throughout the study period. Further studies are needed to elucidate whether this epidemiologic pattern can also be seen in publicly insured children and whether Hispanic ethnicity is a risk factor for increased hospitalizations or is related to health disparities in the US healthcare system.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrea Rivera-Sepulveda
- Division of Pediatric Emergency Medicine, Department of Pediatrics, Saint Louis University School of Medicine, 1402 S. Grand Boulevard – Glennon Hall, Room 2717, 63104 Saint Louis, MO USA
- School of Health Professions, University of Puerto Rico Medical Sciences Campus, and School of Medicine, San Juan, Puerto Rico
| | - Enid J. Garcia-Rivera
- School of Health Professions, University of Puerto Rico Medical Sciences Campus, and School of Medicine, San Juan, Puerto Rico
- Endowed Health Services, University of Puerto Rico School of Medicine, Medical Sciences Campus, San Juan, Puerto Rico
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Kamigaki T, Chaw L, Tan AG, Tamaki R, Alday PP, Javier JB, Olveda RM, Oshitani H, Tallo VL. Seasonality of Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Viruses and the Effect of Climate Factors in Subtropical-Tropical Asia Using Influenza-Like Illness Surveillance Data, 2010 -2012. PLoS One 2016; 11:e0167712. [PMID: 28002419 PMCID: PMC5176282 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0167712] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/17/2016] [Accepted: 11/18/2016] [Indexed: 12/04/2022] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION The seasonality of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is well known, and many analyses have been conducted in temperate countries; however, this is still not well understood in tropical countries. Previous studies suggest that climate factors are involved in the seasonality of these viruses. However, the extent of the effect of each climate variable is yet to be defined. MATERIALS AND METHODS We investigated the pattern of seasonality and the effect of climate variables on influenza and RSV at three sites of different latitudes: the Eastern Visayas region and Baguio City in the Philippines, and Okinawa Prefecture in Japan. Wavelet analysis and the dynamic linear regression model were applied. Climate variables used in the analysis included mean temperature, relative and specific humidity, precipitation, and number of rainy days. The Akaike Information Criterion estimated in each model was used to test the improvement of fit in comparison with the baseline model. RESULTS At all three study sites, annual seasonal peaks were observed in influenza A and RSV; peaks were unclear for influenza B. Ranges of climate variables at the two Philippine sites were narrower and mean variables were significantly different among the three sites. Whereas all climate variables except the number of rainy days improved model fit to the local trend model, their contributions were modest. Mean temperature and specific humidity were positively associated with influenza and RSV at the Philippine sites and negatively associated with influenza A in Okinawa. Precipitation also improved model fit for influenza and RSV at both Philippine sites, except for the influenza A model in the Eastern Visayas. CONCLUSIONS Annual seasonal peaks were observed for influenza A and RSV but were less clear for influenza B at all three study sites. Including additional data from subsequent more years would help to ascertain these findings. Annual amplitude and variation in climate variables are more important than their absolute values for determining their effect on the seasonality of influenza and RSV.
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Affiliation(s)
- Taro Kamigaki
- Department of Virology, Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, Sendai, Japan
| | - Liling Chaw
- Department of Virology, Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, Sendai, Japan
| | - Alvin G. Tan
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Research Institute for Tropical Medicine, Department of Health, Manila, Philippines
| | - Raita Tamaki
- Department of Virology, Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, Sendai, Japan
| | - Portia P. Alday
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Research Institute for Tropical Medicine, Department of Health, Manila, Philippines
| | - Jenaline B. Javier
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Research Institute for Tropical Medicine, Department of Health, Manila, Philippines
| | - Remigio M. Olveda
- Research Institute for Tropical Medicine, Department of Health, Manila, Philippines
| | - Hitoshi Oshitani
- Department of Virology, Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, Sendai, Japan
| | - Veronica L. Tallo
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Research Institute for Tropical Medicine, Department of Health, Manila, Philippines
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Abstract
SUMMARYIn temperate zones, human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) outbreaks typically occur in cold weather, i.e. in late autumn and winter. However, recent outbreaks in Japan have tended to start during summer and autumn. This study examined associations of meteorological conditions with the numbers of HRSV cases reported in summer in Japan. Using data from the HRSV national surveillance system and national meteorological data for summer during the period 2007–2014, we utilized negative binomial logistic regression analysis to identify associations between meteorological conditions and reported cases of HRSV. HRSV cases increased when summer temperatures rose and when relative humidity increased. Consideration of the interaction term temperature × relative humidity enabled us to show synergistic effects of high temperature with HRSV occurrence. In particular, HRSV cases synergistically increased when relative humidity increased while the temperature was ⩾28·2 °C. Seasonal-trend decomposition analysis using the HRSV national surveillance data divided by 11 climate divisions showed that summer HRSV cases occurred in South Japan (Okinawa Island), Kyushu, and Nankai climate divisions, which are located in southwest Japan. Higher temperature and higher relative humidity were necessary conditions for HRSV occurrence in summer in Japan. Paediatricians in temperate zones should be mindful of possible HRSV cases in summer, when suitable conditions are present.
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Prediction of the respiratory syncitial virus epidemic using climate variables in Bogotá, D.C. BIOMEDICA 2016; 36:378-389. [PMID: 27869386 DOI: 10.7705/biomedica.v36i3.2763] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/17/2015] [Revised: 03/28/2016] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
Abstract
lntroduction: The respiratory syncitial virus is one of the most common causes of mortality in children and older adults in the world. Objective: To predict the initial week of outbreaks and to establish the most relevant climate variables using naive Bayes classifiers and receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC). Materials and methods: The initial dates of the outbreaks in children less than five years old for the period 2005-2010 were obtained for Bogotá, Colombia. We selected the climatological variables using a correlation matrix and we constructed 1,020 models using different climatological variables and data from different weeks previous to the initial outbreak. In addition, we selected models using a six-year period (2005-2010), a four-year period (2005-2008), and a two-year period (2009-2010). We obtained the best predictive models and the most relevant climatological variables to predict the outbreak using naive Bayes classifiers and ROC curves. Results: The best models were those using a two-year period (2009-2010) and week 0, with 52% and 60% of effectiveness, respectively. Humidity was the most frequent variable in the best models (62%). Conclusions: We used naive Bayes classifiers to establish the best models to predict correctly the initial week of the outbreak. Our results suggest that the best models used humidity, wind speed and minimum temperature in outbreaks prediction.
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Paynter S, Ware RS, Sly PD, Weinstein P, Williams G. Respiratory syncytial virus seasonality in tropical Australia. Aust N Z J Public Health 2016; 39:8-10. [PMID: 25648729 DOI: 10.1111/1753-6405.12347] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/01/2014] [Revised: 10/01/2014] [Accepted: 10/01/2014] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is most common during the rainy season in a number of low- to middle-income tropical settings, a pattern driven by seasonal changes in climate and nutrition. We investigated the seasonality of RSV in the high-income tropical setting of North Queensland, Australia. METHODS We used RSV hospital admissions data from Cairns and Townsville to assess the seasonality of RSV. We examined the seasonal scale associations between selected meteorological exposures and RSV admissions using cross-correlation of weekly data. RESULTS In both Cairns and Townsville, RSV admissions were highest in the latter half of the rainy season. In Cairns, RSV admissions were most strongly correlated with rainfall four weeks previously. In Townsville, RSV admissions were most strongly correlated with rainfall six weeks previously. CONCLUSIONS The seasonality of RSV in the tropical setting of North Queensland appears to be driven by seasonal variations in rainfall. Further research is needed to assess the impact of climate on RSV incidence in the tropics.
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Beamer PI, Lothrop N, Lu Z, Ascher R, Ernst K, Stern DA, Billheimer D, Wright AL, Martinez FD. Spatial clusters of child lower respiratory illnesses associated with community-level risk factors. Pediatr Pulmonol 2016; 51:633-42. [PMID: 26436763 PMCID: PMC5349765 DOI: 10.1002/ppul.23332] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/16/2015] [Revised: 08/11/2015] [Accepted: 09/07/2015] [Indexed: 11/06/2022]
Abstract
Identifying geographic areas with increased incidence of disease may elucidate community-level risk factors for intervention development. Lower respiratory illnesses (LRIs) are the leading cause of death in children and are associated with other morbidities. We assessed geographic clustering of LRIs and evaluated if these spatial patterns and associated risk factors differed by phenotype. Participants enrolled at birth in the Tucson Children's Respiratory Study were followed through age three for physician diagnosed LRIs. Spatial clustering analysis, based upon each participant's birth address, was performed for four LRI phenotypes. We conducted principal component analysis at the census tract level to generate indices for lower socioeconomic status (SES), poorer housing conditions, and increased air pollution. Enrollment addresses were mapped for 812 subjects, of whom 58.4%, 33.5%, 34.2%, and 23.4% had any LRI, a wheezing LRI, a viral LRI, and a respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) LRI, respectively. Patterns of spatial clustering and associated risk factors differed by LRI phenotype. Multivariable regression analyses showed that wheezing LRI clusters were associated with increased air pollution (OR = 1.18, P = 0.01). Being in a viral cluster was associated with poorer housing conditions (OR = 1.28, P = 0.01), while being in a RSV cluster was associated with increased air pollution (OR = 1.14, P = 0.006), poorer housing conditions (OR = 1.54, P = 0.003), and higher SES (OR = 0.77, P = 0.001). Our use of social and environmental indices allowed us to identify broad contextual factors that may contribute to increased incidence of LRIs in specific geographic regions. To reduce LRI incidence, multifaceted interventions should be developed at the community level. Pediatr Pulmonol. 2016;51:633-642. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
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Affiliation(s)
- Paloma I Beamer
- Arizona Respiratory Center, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona.,Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona.,Bio5 Institute, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona
| | - Nathan Lothrop
- Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona
| | - Zhenqiang Lu
- Bio5 Institute, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona
| | - Rebecca Ascher
- Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona
| | - Kacey Ernst
- Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona
| | - Debra A Stern
- Arizona Respiratory Center, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona
| | - Dean Billheimer
- Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona.,Bio5 Institute, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona
| | - Anne L Wright
- Arizona Respiratory Center, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona
| | - Fernando D Martinez
- Arizona Respiratory Center, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona.,Bio5 Institute, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona
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Epidemic activity of respiratory syncytial virus is related to temperature and rainfall in equatorial tropical countries. Epidemiol Infect 2016; 144:2057-63. [PMID: 26888544 DOI: 10.1017/s0950268816000273] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/07/2022] Open
Abstract
Although viral acute lower respiratory infections (ALRIs) are a major public health problem in tropical low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), and there is growing evidence showing their relationship with meteorological parameters, studies performed in these countries are scarce. In an analytical cross-sectional study, we determined which of the main meteorological parameters (temperature, absolute humidity, rainfall, wind speed, and solar radiation) predicted respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) activity in a population of hospitalized children with ALRI during a 5-year period, from January 2009 to December 2013. Out of a total of 4559 children included in the study (mean age 9·2 ± 8·5 months), 2953 (64·8%) presented RSV infection during the 3-month period from March to May. In the multivariate analysis, after controlling for absolute humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation, temperature [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 2·25, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·11-4·53, P = 0·024], and rainfall (IRR 1·01, 95% CI 1·00-1·02, P = 0·044) were independently associated with the monthly number of RSV infections. In conclusion, in Bogota, the capital of a tropical LMIC lying slightly above the equator, RSV activity peaks in the 3-month period from March to May, the main rainy period of the year in the city. In addition, rainfall and temperature are the two most important meteorological parameters that are independently associated with RSV activity in hospitalized children with ALRI in the city.
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Al-Maskari N, Mohsin J, Al-Maani A, Al-Macki N, Al-Ismaili S. Atypical Presentations of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection: Case Series. Sultan Qaboos Univ Med J 2016; 16:e86-91. [PMID: 26909220 DOI: 10.18295/squmj.2016.16.01.016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/16/2015] [Revised: 08/06/2015] [Accepted: 09/22/2015] [Indexed: 12/16/2022] Open
Abstract
The respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) usually causes a lower respiratory tract infection in affected patients. RSV has also been infrequently linked to extrapulmonary diseases in children. We report four children who had unusually severe clinical manifestations of RSV infections requiring critical care admission. These patients presented to the Royal Hospital, Muscat, Oman, in December 2013 with acute necrotising encephalopathy (ANE), acute fulminant hepatic failure with encephalopathy, pneumatoceles and croup. A unique presentation of ANE has not previously been reported in association with an RSV infection. All patients had a positive outcome and recovered fully with supportive management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nawal Al-Maskari
- Department of Paediatric Infectious Diseases, Royal Hospital, Muscat, Oman
| | - Jalila Mohsin
- Department of Microbiology, Royal Hospital, Muscat, Oman
| | - Amal Al-Maani
- Department of Paediatric Infectious Diseases, Royal Hospital, Muscat, Oman
| | - Nabil Al-Macki
- Department of Child Health, Royal Hospital, Muscat, Oman
| | - Suad Al-Ismaili
- Department of Paediatric Infectious Diseases, Royal Hospital, Muscat, Oman
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Prasetyo AA, Desyardi MN, Tanamas J, Suradi, Reviono, Harsini, Kageyama S, Chikumi H, Shimizu E. Respiratory viruses and torque teno virus in adults with acute respiratory infections. Intervirology 2015; 58:57-68. [PMID: 25890989 PMCID: PMC7179541 DOI: 10.1159/000369211] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Objective To define the molecular epidemiology of respiratory viral infections in adult patients. Methods Nasal and throat swabs were collected from all adult patients with influenza-like illness (ILI), acute respiratory infection (ARI), or severe ARI (SARI) admitted to a tertiary hospital in Surakarta, Indonesia, between March 2010 and April 2011 and analyzed for 19 respiratory viruses and for torque teno virus (TTV) and human gyrovirus (HGyV). Results Respiratory viruses were detected in 61.3% of the subjects, most of whom had ARI (90.8%, OR = 11.39), were hospitalized (96.9%, OR = 22.31), had asthma exacerbation (90.9%, OR = 8.67), and/or had pneumonia (80%, OR = 4.0). Human rhinovirus (HRV) A43 predominated. Influenza A H3N2, human metapneumovirus (HMPV) subtypes A1 and A2, the influenza B virus, human adenovirus B, and human coronavirus OC43 were also detected. All respiratory viruses were detected in the transition month between the rainy and dry seasons. No mixed respiratory virus infection was found. Coinfections of the influenza A H3N2 virus with TTV, HMPV with TTV, HRV with TTV, and human parainfluenza virus-3 with TTV were found in 4.7, 2.8, 19.8, and 0.9% of the samples, respectively. Conclusions This study highlights the need to perform routine detection of respiratory viruses in adults hospitalized with ARI, asthma exacerbation, and/or pneumonia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Afiono Agung Prasetyo
- Department of Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, Sebelas Maret University, Jl. Ir. Sutami No. 36A, Surakarta 57126 (Indonesia). afie.agp.la @ gmail.com
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Thomas DSK, Anthamatten P, Root ED, Lucero M, Nohynek H, Tallo V, Williams GM, Simões EAF. Disease mapping for informing targeted health interventions: childhood pneumonia in Bohol, Philippines. Trop Med Int Health 2015; 20:1525-1533. [PMID: 26104587 DOI: 10.1111/tmi.12561] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Acute lower respiratory tract infections (ALRI) are the leading cause of childhood mortality worldwide. Currently, most developing countries assign resources at a district level, and yet District Medical Officers have few tools for directing targeted interventions to high mortality or morbidity areas. Mapping of ALRI at the local level can guide more efficient allocation of resources, coordination of efforts and targeted interventions, which are particularly relevant for health management in resource-scarce settings. METHODS An efficacy study of 11-valent pneumococcal vaccine was conducted in six municipalities in the Bohol Province of central Philippines from July 2000 to December 2004. Geocoded under-five pneumonia cases (using WHO classifications) were mapped to create spatial patterns of pneumonia at the local health unit (barangay) level. RESULTS There were 2951 children with WHO-defined clinical pneumonia, of whom 1074 were severe or very severely ill, 278 were radiographic, and 219 were hypoxaemic. While most children with pneumonia were from urban barangays, there was a disproportionately higher distribution of severe/very severe pneumonia in rural barangays and the most severe hypoxaemic children were concentrated in the northern barangays most distant from the regional hospital. CONCLUSIONS Mapping of ALRI at the local administrative health level can be performed relatively simply. If these principles are applied to routinely collected IMCI classification of disease at the district level in developing countries, such efforts can form the basis for directing public health and healthcare delivery efforts in a targeted manner.
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Affiliation(s)
- Deborah S K Thomas
- Department of Geography & Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Denver, CO, USA
| | - Peter Anthamatten
- Department of Geography & Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Denver, CO, USA
| | - Elisabeth Dowling Root
- Department of Geography and Institute of Behavioral Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Marilla Lucero
- Research Institute for Tropical Medicine, Metro Manila, Philippines
| | - Hanna Nohynek
- Department of Vaccination and Immune Protection, National Institute for Health and Welfare, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Veronica Tallo
- Research Institute for Tropical Medicine, Metro Manila, Philippines
| | - Gail M Williams
- School of Population Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Qld, Australia
| | - Eric A F Simões
- Department of Pediatrics, Section of Infectious Diseases, University of Colorado, School of Medicine, Aurora, CO, USA.,Department of Epidemiology and Center for Global Health, Colorado School of Public Health, Aurora, CO, USA
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Passos SD, Gazeta RE, Felgueiras AP, Beneli PC, Coelho MDSZS. Do pollution and climate influence respiratory tract infections in children? Rev Assoc Med Bras (1992) 2015; 60:276-82. [PMID: 25004275 DOI: 10.1590/1806-9282.60.03.018] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/18/2012] [Accepted: 01/09/2014] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
UNLABELLED To review if pollution and climate changes can influence respiratory tract infections in children. DATA SOURCE Articles published on the subject in PubMed, SciELO, Bireme, EBSCO and UpTodate were reviewed. The following inclusion criteria were considered: scientific papers between 2002 and 2012, study design, the pediatric population, reference documents such as the CETESB and World Health Organization Summary of the data: We analyzed research that correlated respiratory viruses and climate and/or pollution changes. Respiratory syncytial virus has been the virus related most to changes in climate and humidity. Other "old and new" respiratory viruses such as Human Bocavirus, Metapneumovirus, Parechovirus and Parainfuenza would need to be investigated owing to their clinical importance. Although much has been studied with regard to the relationship between climate change and public health, specific studies about its influence on children's health remain scarce.
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Cui B, Zhang D, Pan H, Zhang F, Farrar J, Law F, van Doorn HR, Wu B, Ba-Thein W. Viral aetiology of acute respiratory infections among children and associated meteorological factors in southern China. BMC Infect Dis 2015; 15:124. [PMID: 25884513 PMCID: PMC4365542 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-015-0863-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/17/2014] [Accepted: 03/02/2015] [Indexed: 02/05/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Acute respiratory infections (ARIs) are common in children and mostly caused by viruses, but the significance of the detection of multiple viruses in ARIs is unclear. This study investigated 14 respiratory viruses in ARIs among children and associated meteorological factors in Shantou, southern China. METHODS Paired nasal/throat-flocked swabs collected from 1,074 children with ARIs, who visited outpatient walk-in clinics in a tertiary hospital between December 2010 and November 2011, were examined for fourteen respiratory viruses--influenza viruses (FluA, FluB), respiratory syncytial viruses (RSV A and B), human coronaviruses (hCoV: 229E, OC43, HKU1, NL63), human metapneumoviruses (hMPV A and B), parainfluenza viruses (PIV1-4), human rhinoviruses (HRV A, B, C), enteroviruses (EV), adenoviruses (ADV), human bocavirus (hBoV), and human parechoviruses (hPeV)--by multiplex real-time PCR. RESULTS We identified at least one virus in 82.3% (884/1,074) and multiple viruses in 38.6% (415/1,074) of patients. EV and HRV were the most frequently detected single viruses (42.3%, 374/884 and 39.9%, 353/884 respectively) and co-detected pair (23.1%, 96/415). Overlapping seasonal trends of viruses were recorded over the year, with dual peaks for EV and single peaks for the others. By logistic regression analysis, EV was positively associated with the average temperature and humidity, hCoV, and PIV4, but negatively with HRV, PIV3, and hBoV. HRV was inversely associated with EV and PIV3. CONCLUSIONS This study reports high viral detection and co-detection rates in pediatric ARI cases mainly due to EV and HRV. Many viruses circulated throughout the year with similar seasonal trends in association with temperature, humidity, and wind velocity. Statistically significant associations were present among the viruses. Understanding the polyviral etiology and viral interactions in the cases with multiple viruses warrants further studies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Binglin Cui
- Pediatric Department, the First Affiliated Hospital of Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, Guangdong, P.R. China.
| | - Dangui Zhang
- The Research Center of Translational Medicine, the Second Affiliated Hospital of Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, Guangdong, P.R. China.
| | - Hui Pan
- Shantou-Oxford Clinical Research Unit, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, Guangdong, P.R. China.
| | - Fan Zhang
- Oncology Research Laboratory, Cancer Hospital of Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, Guangdong, P.R. China.
| | - Jeremy Farrar
- Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam.
| | - Frieda Law
- Consultant Office, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, Guangdong, P.R. China.
| | - H Rogier van Doorn
- Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam.
| | - Beiyan Wu
- Pediatric Department, the First Affiliated Hospital of Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, Guangdong, P.R. China.
| | - William Ba-Thein
- Shantou-Oxford Clinical Research Unit, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, Guangdong, P.R. China.
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, Guangdong, 515041, P.R. China.
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Abstract
Influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are similarly structured viruses with similar environmental survival, but different routes of transmission. While RSV is transmitted predominantly by direct and indirect contact, influenza is also transmitted by aerosol. The cold, dry conditions of temperate winters appear to encourage the transmission of both viruses, by increasing influenza virus survival in aerosols, and increasing influenza and RSV survival on surfaces. In contrast, the hot, wet conditions of tropical rainy seasons appear to discourage aerosol transmission of influenza, by reducing the amount of influenza virus that is aerosolized, and probably also by reducing influenza survival in aerosol. The wet conditions of tropical rainy seasons may, however, encourage contact transmission of both viruses, by increasing the amount of virus that is deposited on surfaces, and by increasing virus survival in droplets on surfaces. This evidence suggests that the increased incidence of influenza and RSV in tropical rainy seasons may be due to increased contact transmission. This hypothesis is consistent with the observation that tropical rainy seasons appear to encourage the transmission of RSV more than influenza. More research is required to examine the environmental survival of respiratory viruses in the high humidity and temperature of the tropics.
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The influence of diurnal temperature range on the incidence of respiratory syncytial virus in Japan. Epidemiol Infect 2014; 143:813-20. [PMID: 25092407 DOI: 10.1017/s0950268814001575] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/06/2022] Open
Abstract
The incidence of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) has been reported to exhibit seasonal variation. However, the impact of diurnal temperature range (DTR) on RSV has not been investigated. After acquiring data related to cases of RSV and weather parameters of DTR in Fukuoka, Japan, between 2006 and 2012, we used negative binomial generalized linear models and distributed lag nonlinear models to assess the possible relationship between DTR and RSV cases, adjusting for confounding factors. Our analysis revealed that the weekly number of RSV cases increased with a relative risk of 3·30 (95% confidence interval 1·65-6·60) for every 1°C increase in DTR. Our study provides quantitative evidence that the number of RSV cases increased significantly with increasing DTR. We suggest that preventive measures for limiting the spread of RSV should be considered during extended periods of high DTR.
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Gao J, Sun Y, Lu Y, Li L. Impact of ambient humidity on child health: a systematic review. PLoS One 2014; 9:e112508. [PMID: 25503413 PMCID: PMC4264743 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0112508] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/08/2014] [Accepted: 10/19/2014] [Indexed: 02/05/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES Changes in relative humidity, along with other meteorological factors, accompany ongoing climate change and play a significant role in weather-related health outcomes, particularly among children. The purpose of this review is to improve our understanding of the relationship between ambient humidity and child health, and to propose directions for future research. METHODS A comprehensive search of electronic databases (PubMed, Medline, Web of Science, ScienceDirect, OvidSP and EBSCO host) and review of reference lists, to supplement relevant studies, were conducted in March 2013. All identified records were selected based on explicit inclusion criteria. We extracted data from the included studies using a pre-designed data extraction form, and then performed a quality assessment. Various heterogeneities precluded a formal quantitative meta-analysis, therefore, evidence was compiled using descriptive summaries. RESULTS Out of a total of 3797 identified records, 37 papers were selected for inclusion in this review. Among the 37 studies, 35% were focused on allergic diseases and 32% on respiratory system diseases. Quality assessment revealed 78% of the studies had reporting quality scores above 70%, and all findings demonstrated that ambient humidity generally plays an important role in the incidence and prevalence of climate-sensitive diseases among children. CONCLUSIONS With climate change, there is a significant impact of ambient humidity on child health, especially for climate-sensitive infectious diseases, diarrhoeal diseases, respiratory system diseases, and pediatric allergic diseases. However, some inconsistencies in the direction and magnitude of the effects are observed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jinghong Gao
- Injury Prevention Research Center, Shantou University Medical College, No. 22 Xinling Road, Shantou, Guangdong, 515041, China
| | - Yunzong Sun
- Department of Public Health, Shantou University Medical College, No. 22 Xinling Road, Shantou, Guangdong, 515041, China
| | - Yaogui Lu
- Injury Prevention Research Center, Shantou University Medical College, No. 22 Xinling Road, Shantou, Guangdong, 515041, China
| | - Liping Li
- Injury Prevention Research Center, Shantou University Medical College, No. 22 Xinling Road, Shantou, Guangdong, 515041, China
- * E-mail:
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Tang JW, Loh TP. Correlations between climate factors and incidence-a contributor to RSV seasonality. Rev Med Virol 2013; 24:15-34. [DOI: 10.1002/rmv.1771] [Citation(s) in RCA: 64] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/28/2013] [Revised: 09/12/2013] [Accepted: 09/13/2013] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Julian W. Tang
- Alberta Provincial Laboratory for Public Health; University of Alberta Hospital; Edmonton Canada
- Department of Medical Microbiology and Immunology; University of Alberta; Edmonton Canada
| | - Tze Ping Loh
- Department of Laboratory Medicine; National University Hospital; Singapore
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Association of meteorological factors with childhood viral acute respiratory infections in subtropical China: an analysis over 11 years. Arch Virol 2013; 159:631-9. [DOI: 10.1007/s00705-013-1863-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/06/2013] [Accepted: 07/18/2013] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
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Sloan CD, Gebretsadik T, Wu P, Carroll KN, Mitchel E, Hartert TV. Spatiotemporal patterns of infant bronchiolitis in a Tennessee Medicaid population. Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol 2013; 6:17-23. [PMID: 23956809 PMCID: PMC3742041 DOI: 10.1016/j.sste.2013.05.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of worldwide morbidity and mortality in infants, primarily through the induction of bronchiolitis. RSV epidemics are highly seasonal, occurring in the winter months in the northern hemisphere. Within the United States, RSV epidemic dynamics vary both spatially and temporally. This analysis employs a retrospective space–time scan statistic to locate spatiotemporal clustering of infant bronchiolitis in a very large Tennessee (TN) Medicaid cohort. We studied infants less than 6 months of age (N = 52,468 infants) who had an outpatient visit, emergency department visit, or hospitalization for bronchiolitis between 1995 and 2008. The scan statistic revealed distinctive and consistent patterns of deviation in epidemic timing. Eastern TN (Knoxville area) showed clustering in January and February, and Central TN (Nashville area) in November and December. This is likely due to local variation in geography-associated factors which should be taken into consideration in future modeling of RSV epidemics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chantel D. Sloan
- Vanderbilt Center for Asthma & Environmental Health Sciences Research, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, TN
| | | | - Pingsheng Wu
- Vanderbilt University Department of Biostatistics
| | - Kecia N. Carroll
- Vanderbilt Center for Asthma & Environmental Health Sciences Research, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, TN
| | | | - Tina V. Hartert
- Vanderbilt Center for Asthma & Environmental Health Sciences Research, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, TN
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Abstract
BACKGROUND The factors that determine the initiation and persistence of yearly epidemics of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) bronchiolitis are not well known. A limited number of studies have found that meteorologic conditions could be associated with RSV activity. OBJECTIVES We analyzed the association of certain atmospheric conditions with RSV activity, as determined by the number of hospitalizations of infants with bronchiolitis in Mallorca (Spain). METHODS We conducted a retrospective review of the medical records of children ≤ 2 years of age with acute bronchiolitis between January 1995 and December 2006. Climatic data were obtained from a weather station located 15 km from the hospital. The number of RSV hospitalizations were correlated to temperature, barometric pressure, relative humidity and water vapor pressure using different time models and regression analyses. RESULTS A total of 1495 infants with RSV bronchiolitis were hospitalized during the study period, with a seasonal pattern from November to March. Weekly RSV activity could be predicted (R= 0.88; P < 0.001) by mean temperature and atmospheric pressure. Monthly RSV activity was significantly associated (R= 0.95; P < 0.001) with mean and minimum temperature, water vapor pressure, relative humidity and barometric pressure. The peak of RSV activity was observed within 9°C mean temperature, 5°C minimum temperature, 16°C maximum temperature, 1032 hPa atmospheric pressure, 83% relative humidity and 910 hPa water vapor pressure. CONCLUSIONS The annual patterns of RSV hospitalizations were strongly associated with the meteorologic conditions. The mean temperature and atmospheric pressure were the main factors that correlated with increases and declines in RSV activity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel Hervás
- University Institute of Health Sciences—IUNICS, Ctra Valldemosa 79, 07010 Palma de Mallorca, Spain
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Sunshine, rainfall, humidity and child pneumonia in the tropics: time-series analyses. Epidemiol Infect 2012; 141:1328-36. [PMID: 22884022 DOI: 10.1017/s0950268812001379] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/06/2022] Open
Abstract
Few studies have formally examined the relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of child pneumonia in the tropics, despite the fact that most child pneumonia deaths occur there. We examined the association between four meteorological exposures (rainy days, sunshine, relative humidity, temperature) and the incidence of clinical pneumonia in young children in the Philippines using three time-series methods: correlation of seasonal patterns, distributed lag regression, and case-crossover. Lack of sunshine was most strongly associated with pneumonia in both lagged regression [overall relative risk over the following 60 days for a 1-h increase in sunshine per day was 0·67 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0·51-0·87)] and case-crossover analysis [odds ratio for a 1-h increase in mean daily sunshine 8-14 days earlier was 0·95 (95% CI 0·91-1·00)]. This association is well known in temperate settings but has not been noted previously in the tropics. Further research to assess causality is needed.
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Gardinassi LG, Marques Simas PV, Salomão JB, Durigon EL, Zanetta Trevisan DM, Cordeiro JA, Lacerda MN, Rahal P, de Souz FP. Seasonality of viral respiratory infections in southeast of Brazil: the influence of temperature and air humidity. Braz J Microbiol 2012; 43:98-108. [PMID: 24031808 PMCID: PMC3768995 DOI: 10.1590/s1517-838220120001000011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/21/2010] [Revised: 12/12/2010] [Accepted: 08/30/2011] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Viruses are the major cause of lower respiratory tract infections in childhood and the main viruses involved are Human Respiratory Syncytial Virus (HRSV), Human Metapneumovirus (HMPV), Influenzavirus A and B (FLUA and FLUB), Human Parainfluenza Virus 1, 2 and 3 (HPIV1, 2 and 3) and Human Rhinovirus (HRV). The purposes of this study were to detect respiratory viruses in hospitalized children younger than six years and identify the influence of temperature and relative air humidity on the detected viruses. Samples of nasopharyngeal washes were collected from hospitalized children between May/2004 and September/2005. Methods of viral detection were RT-PCR, PCR and HRV amplicons were confirmed by hybridization. Results showed 54% (148/272) of viral positivity. HRSV was detected in 29% (79/272) of the samples; HRV in 23.1% (63/272); HPIV3 in 5.1% (14/272); HMPV in 3.3% (9/272); HPIV1 in 2.9% (8/272); FLUB in 1.4% (4/272), FLUA in 1.1% (3/272), and HPIV2 in 0.3% (1/272). The highest detection rates occurred mainly in the spring 2004 and in the autumn 2005. It was observed that viral respiratory infections tend to increase as the relative air humidity decreases, showing significant association with monthly averages of minimal temperature and minimal relative air humidity. In conclusion, viral respiratory infections vary according to temperature and relative air humidity and viral respiratory infections present major incidences it coldest and driest periods.
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Affiliation(s)
- Luiz Gustavo Gardinassi
- Universidade Estadual Paulista, Instituto de Biociências, Letras e Ciências Exatas, Departamento de Biologia , Ribeirão Preto , Brasil
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Khor CS, Sam IC, Hooi PS, Quek KF, Chan YF. Epidemiology and seasonality of respiratory viral infections in hospitalized children in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia: a retrospective study of 27 years. BMC Pediatr 2012; 12:32. [PMID: 22429933 PMCID: PMC3337250 DOI: 10.1186/1471-2431-12-32] [Citation(s) in RCA: 112] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/05/2011] [Accepted: 03/20/2012] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Viral respiratory tract infections (RTI) are relatively understudied in Southeast Asian tropical countries. In temperate countries, seasonal activity of respiratory viruses has been reported, particularly in association with temperature, while inconsistent correlation of respiratory viral activity with humidity and rain is found in tropical countries. A retrospective study was performed from 1982-2008 to investigate the viral etiology of children (≤ 5 years old) admitted with RTI in a tertiary hospital in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Methods A total of 10269 respiratory samples from all children ≤ 5 years old received at the hospital's diagnostic virology laboratory between 1982-2008 were included in the study. Immunofluorescence staining (for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), influenza A and B, parainfluenza types 1-3, and adenovirus) and virus isolation were performed. The yearly hospitalization rates and annual patterns of laboratory-confirmed viral RTIs were determined. Univariate ANOVA was used to analyse the demographic parameters of cases. Multiple regression and Spearman's rank correlation were used to analyse the correlation between RSV cases and meteorological parameters. Results A total of 2708 cases were laboratory-confirmed using immunofluorescence assays and viral cultures, with the most commonly detected being RSV (1913, 70.6%), parainfluenza viruses (357, 13.2%), influenza viruses (297, 11.0%), and adenovirus (141, 5.2%). Children infected with RSV were significantly younger, and children infected with influenza viruses were significantly older. The four main viruses caused disease throughout the year, with a seasonal peak observed for RSV in September-December. Monthly RSV cases were directly correlated with rain days, and inversely correlated with relative humidity and temperature. Conclusion Viral RTIs, particularly due to RSV, are commonly detected in respiratory samples from hospitalized children in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. As in temperate countries, RSV infection in tropical Malaysia also caused seasonal yearly epidemics, and this has implications for prophylaxis and vaccination programmes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chee-Sieng Khor
- Tropical Infectious Diseases Research and Education Centre, Department of Medical Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, University Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
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Pica N, Bouvier NM. Environmental factors affecting the transmission of respiratory viruses. Curr Opin Virol 2012; 2:90-5. [PMID: 22440971 PMCID: PMC3311988 DOI: 10.1016/j.coviro.2011.12.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 169] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/25/2011] [Revised: 12/06/2011] [Accepted: 12/09/2011] [Indexed: 11/04/2022]
Abstract
Many viruses are capable of infecting the human respiratory tract to cause disease. These viruses display various transmission patterns among humans; however, they all share the ability to transmit from person to person, and their human transmissibility is influenced by the environment in which pathogen and host meet. This review aims to summarize recent and significant observations regarding the impact of environmental factors such as weather and climate, humidity, temperature, and airflow on the transmission of human respiratory viruses. Where possible, knowledge gaps that require further scientific study will be identified.
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Affiliation(s)
- Natalie Pica
- Department of Microbiology, Mount Sinai School of Medicine, New York, NY, USA
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Chen CF, Ho WH, Chou HY, Yang SM, Chen IT, Shi HY. Long-term prediction of emergency department revenue and visitor volume using autoregressive integrated moving average model. COMPUTATIONAL AND MATHEMATICAL METHODS IN MEDICINE 2011; 2011:395690. [PMID: 22203886 PMCID: PMC3235663 DOI: 10.1155/2011/395690] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/06/2011] [Revised: 10/07/2011] [Accepted: 10/07/2011] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
Abstract
This study analyzed meteorological, clinical and economic factors in terms of their effects on monthly ED revenue and visitor volume. Monthly data from January 1, 2005 to September 30, 2009 were analyzed. Spearman correlation and cross-correlation analyses were performed to identify the correlation between each independent variable, ED revenue, and visitor volume. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to quantify the relationship between each independent variable, ED revenue, and visitor volume. The accuracies were evaluated by comparing model forecasts to actual values with mean absolute percentage of error. Sensitivity of prediction errors to model training time was also evaluated. The ARIMA models indicated that mean maximum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, non-trauma, and trauma visits may correlate positively with ED revenue, but mean minimum temperature may correlate negatively with ED revenue. Moreover, mean minimum temperature and stock market index fluctuation may correlate positively with trauma visitor volume. Mean maximum temperature, relative humidity and stock market index fluctuation may correlate positively with non-trauma visitor volume. Mean maximum temperature and relative humidity may correlate positively with pediatric visitor volume, but mean minimum temperature may correlate negatively with pediatric visitor volume. The model also performed well in forecasting revenue and visitor volume.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chieh-Fan Chen
- Emergency Department, Kaohsiung Municipal United Hospital, Kaohsiung 80457, Taiwan
- Department of Health Business Administration, Meiho University, Pingtung 91202, Taiwan
| | - Wen-Hsien Ho
- Department of Healthcare Administration and Medical Informatics, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung 80708, Taiwan
| | - Huei-Yin Chou
- Department of Health Business Administration, Meiho University, Pingtung 91202, Taiwan
| | - Shu-Mei Yang
- Emergency Department, Kaohsiung Municipal United Hospital, Kaohsiung 80457, Taiwan
| | - I-Te Chen
- Center for General Education, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung 80708, Taiwan
| | - Hon-Yi Shi
- Department of Healthcare Administration and Medical Informatics, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung 80708, Taiwan
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