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Aparecido Magrini L, Monteiro Aguiar Baroni MP, Goulart A, Cilene Gadotti M. Correlations between COVID-19 cases and temperature, air humidity, and social isolating rate with cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence: Case study of New York and São Paulo cities. CHAOS (WOODBURY, N.Y.) 2023; 33:083104. [PMID: 38060787 DOI: 10.1063/5.0160009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/29/2023] [Accepted: 07/14/2023] [Indexed: 12/18/2023]
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic originated in 2019 and has become an endemic disease that we must learn to live with, similar to other strains of influenza. The Organization (WHO) declared on May 5, 2023, in Geneva, Switzerland, the end of the Public Health Emergency of International Concern regarding COVID-19. As vaccines become more widely available and the pandemic appears to be improved, our focus shifts to the challenges we still face. Understanding how external factors like temperature, air humidity, and social isolation impact the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus remains a crucial challenge beyond our control. In this study, potential links between the number of COVID-19 cases in São Paulo City (SPC) and New York City (NWC) were explored. Our analysis was carried out utilizing the continuous wavelet transform, alongside other tools such as cross-wavelet transform and wavelet coherence. Based on our findings, there appears to be a correlation between the variables related to low frequencies, which aligns with previous research on the topic. Particularly, our research has revealed a connection between COVID-19 cases and factors such as temperature, air humidity, and social isolation rates. Regarding the latter, our findings indicate that implementing social distancing measures was a wise public policy decision, although the correlation with daily COVID-19 cases requires careful analysis. For this study, we analyzed data from February of 2020, when the first cases were reported in the cities under investigation, SPC and NWC, up until December 31, 2022, by which time the vaccination campaign was well under way.
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Affiliation(s)
- Luciano Aparecido Magrini
- Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of São Paulo (IFSP), São Paulo 01109-010, Brazil
| | | | - Amari Goulart
- Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of São Paulo (IFSP), São Paulo 01109-010, Brazil
| | - Marta Cilene Gadotti
- Mathematics Department, São Paulo State University (UNESP), Rio Claro 12227-010, Brazil
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2
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The quiet before the storm: Negligence and inappropriateness in face mask use in the community preceded devastating second wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Brazil. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2022; 43:1993-1995. [PMID: 34486513 PMCID: PMC8458842 DOI: 10.1017/ice.2021.395] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/14/2023]
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Brito-Reia VC, da Silva Bastos R, Vieira Vilhena F, Marques Honório H, Marques da Costa Alves L, Frazão P, Sérgio da Silva Santos P. Population-based virucidal phthalocyanine gargling/rinsing protocol to reduce the risk of coronavirus disease-2019: a community trial. GMS HYGIENE AND INFECTION CONTROL 2022; 17:Doc23. [PMID: 36911232 PMCID: PMC9998956 DOI: 10.3205/dgkh000426] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/14/2023]
Abstract
Aim In this community trial, the objective was to evaluate the incidence of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) cases in two similar communities in three distinct phases: 1 (before the intervention), 2 (during the intervention), and 3 (after the intervention). Methods The test community received the oral antiseptic intervention (experimental), while the control community did not. The official information agency ("Statewise System for Data Analysis") provided the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases. Data were analyzed according to the three phases per epidemiological week (epi) using the R Core Team (2021) program. The relative risk and 95% confidence intervals between the cumulative incidence values of the test and control communities were calculated for each period. In the test community, a total of 995 residents over 10 years of age received two bottles containing 600 ml of mouthwash containing antiviral phthalocyanine derivative (APD). The participants were asked to gargle/rinse with of 5 mL of the mouthwash containing ADP 3 to 5 times a day, for 1 min, until the bottles were empty. Results In phases 1 and 3, the disease risk between the two communities did not differ significantly (p>0.05), while in phase 2, the disease risk was 54% lower in the test community than in the control community. Conclusion The use of the APD mouthwash protocol seems to reduce the COVID-19 incidence at the population level, and further studies are needed to confirm its protective effect under more precisely controlled conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Verônica Caroline Brito-Reia
- Department of Surgery, Stomatology, Pathology, and Radiology, Bauru School of Dentistry, University of São Paulo, Bauru, Brazil
| | - Roosevelt da Silva Bastos
- Department of Pediatric Dentistry, Orthodontics and Public Health, Bauru School of Dentistry, University of São Paulo, Bauru, Brazil
| | | | - Heitor Marques Honório
- Department of Pediatric Dentistry, Orthodontics and Public Health, Bauru School of Dentistry, University of São Paulo, Bauru, Brazil
| | | | - Paulo Frazão
- Department Public Health School at University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Paulo Sérgio da Silva Santos
- Department of Surgery, Stomatology, Pathology, and Radiology, Bauru School of Dentistry, University of São Paulo, Bauru, Brazil
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4
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Ferreira CP, Marcondes D, Melo MP, Oliva SM, Peixoto CM, Peixoto PS. A snapshot of a pandemic: The interplay between social isolation and COVID-19 dynamics in Brazil. PATTERNS (NEW YORK, N.Y.) 2021; 2:100349. [PMID: 34541563 PMCID: PMC8442254 DOI: 10.1016/j.patter.2021.100349] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/28/2021] [Revised: 07/13/2021] [Accepted: 08/20/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
In response to the coronavirus pandemic, governments implemented social distancing, attempting to block the virus spread within territories. While it is well accepted that social isolation plays a role in epidemic control, the precise connections between mobility data indicators and epidemic dynamics are still a challenge. In this work, we investigate the dependency between a social isolation index and epidemiological metrics for several Brazilian cities. Classic statistical methods are employed to support the findings. As a first, initially surprising, result, we illustrate how there seems to be no apparent functional relationship between social isolation data and later effects on disease incidence. However, further investigations identified two regimes of successful employment of social isolation: as a preventive measure or as a remedy, albeit remedy measures require greater social isolation and bring higher burden to health systems. Additionally, we exhibit cases of successful strategies involving lockdowns and an indicator-based mobility restriction plan.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cláudia P. Ferreira
- Institute of Biosciences, São Paulo State University (UNESP), Botucatu 18618-689, Brazil
| | - Diego Marcondes
- Department of Applied Mathematics, Institute of Mathematics and Statistics, University of São Paulo, São Paulo 05508-090, Brazil
| | - Mariana P. Melo
- Department of Basic and Environmental Sciences, Engineering School of Lorena, University of São Paulo, Lorena 12602-810, Brazil
| | - Sérgio M. Oliva
- Department of Applied Mathematics, Institute of Mathematics and Statistics, University of São Paulo, São Paulo 05508-090, Brazil
| | - Cláudia M. Peixoto
- Department of Applied Mathematics, Institute of Mathematics and Statistics, University of São Paulo, São Paulo 05508-090, Brazil
| | - Pedro S. Peixoto
- Department of Applied Mathematics, Institute of Mathematics and Statistics, University of São Paulo, São Paulo 05508-090, Brazil
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Paula-Júnior WD, Nascimento RCRMD, Matiles RS, Lima-Neto FFD, Leles MCR, Guimarães HN, Grabe-Guimarães A. COVID-19 in medium-sized municipalities in the 14 health macro-regions of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Braz J Med Biol Res 2021; 54:e11191. [PMID: 34431872 PMCID: PMC8389611 DOI: 10.1590/1414-431x2021e11191] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/26/2021] [Accepted: 06/22/2021] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
The present study focused on the scenario of confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the state of Minas Gerais (MG), Brazil, from March 2020 to March 2021. We evaluated the evolution of COVID-19 prevalence and death in one municipality from each of the 14 health macro-regions of MG state. Socio-demographic characteristics and variables related to the municipalities were analyzed. The raw dataset used in this study was freely sourced from the website Brasil.io. From the raw dataset, two time series were extracted: the cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 and cumulative death counts, and they were compared to the state data using a nowcasting approach. In order to make time series comparisons possible, all data was normalized per 100,000 inhabitants. When analyzing in light of colored wave code interventions initiated in August 2020 in MG, for the majority of the municipalities, there was an absence of clear influence on prevalence and deaths. The national holidays in the first semester of 2020 had a small impact on the COVID-19 prevalence of the municipalities, but the holidays in the second semester of 2020 and beginning of 2021 caused important impacts on COVID-19 prevalence. The low number of ICU beds in some municipalities contributed to the higher number of deaths. The analysis showed here is expected to contribute to the improvement of decision making of the MG government, as it opened a huge possibility to have the total macro-regions and state data analyzed.
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Affiliation(s)
- W de Paula-Júnior
- Universidade Estadual de Montes Claros, Montes Claros, MG, Brasil.,Programa de Pós-graduação em Ciências Farmacêuticas, Escola de Farmácia, Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto, Ouro Preto, MG, Brasil
| | - R C R M do Nascimento
- Programa de Pós-graduação em Ciências Farmacêuticas, Escola de Farmácia, Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto, Ouro Preto, MG, Brasil
| | - R S Matiles
- Faculdade de Ciências Gerenciais, Manhuaçu, MG, Brasil
| | - F F de Lima-Neto
- Universidade Estadual de Montes Claros, Montes Claros, MG, Brasil
| | - M C R Leles
- Universidade Federal de São João Del-Rei, Campus Alto Paraopeba, Ouro Branco, MG, Brasil
| | - H N Guimarães
- Escola de Engenharia, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brasil
| | - A Grabe-Guimarães
- Programa de Pós-graduação em Ciências Farmacêuticas, Escola de Farmácia, Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto, Ouro Preto, MG, Brasil
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Tang Y, Serdan TDA, Alecrim AL, Souza DR, Nacano BRM, Silva FLR, Silva EB, Poma SO, Gennari-Felipe M, Iser-Bem PN, Masi LN, Tang S, Levada-Pires AC, Hatanaka E, Cury-Boaventura MF, Borges FT, Pithon-Curi TC, Curpertino MC, Fiamoncini J, Leandro CG, Gorjao R, Curi R, Hirabara SM. A simple mathematical model for the evaluation of the long first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil. Sci Rep 2021; 11:16400. [PMID: 34385538 PMCID: PMC8361144 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-95815-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/10/2021] [Accepted: 07/23/2021] [Indexed: 12/03/2022] Open
Abstract
We propose herein a mathematical model to predict the COVID-19 evolution and evaluate the impact of governmental decisions on this evolution, attempting to explain the long duration of the pandemic in the 26 Brazilian states and their capitals well as in the Federative Unit. The prediction was performed based on the growth rate of new cases in a stable period, and the graphics plotted with the significant governmental decisions to evaluate the impact on the epidemic curve in each Brazilian state and city. Analysis of the predicted new cases was correlated with the total number of hospitalizations and deaths related to COVID-19. Because Brazil is a vast country, with high heterogeneity and complexity of the regional/local characteristics and governmental authorities among Brazilian states and cities, we individually predicted the epidemic curve based on a specific stable period with reduced or minimal interference on the growth rate of new cases. We found good accuracy, mainly in a short period (weeks). The most critical governmental decisions had a significant temporal impact on pandemic curve growth. A good relationship was found between the predicted number of new cases and the total number of inpatients and deaths related to COVID-19. In summary, we demonstrated that interventional and preventive measures directly and significantly impact the COVID-19 pandemic using a simple mathematical model. This model can easily be applied, helping, and directing health and governmental authorities to make further decisions to combat the pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuanji Tang
- Applied NanoFemto Technologies, LLC, Lowell, MA, USA
| | - Tamires D A Serdan
- Interdisciplinary Program of Health Sciences, Cruzeiro do Sul University, Rua Galvao Bueno, 868, Liberdade, Sao Paulo, SP, 01506-000, Brazil
| | - Amanda L Alecrim
- Interdisciplinary Program of Health Sciences, Cruzeiro do Sul University, Rua Galvao Bueno, 868, Liberdade, Sao Paulo, SP, 01506-000, Brazil
| | - Diego R Souza
- Interdisciplinary Program of Health Sciences, Cruzeiro do Sul University, Rua Galvao Bueno, 868, Liberdade, Sao Paulo, SP, 01506-000, Brazil
| | - Bruno R M Nacano
- Interdisciplinary Program of Health Sciences, Cruzeiro do Sul University, Rua Galvao Bueno, 868, Liberdade, Sao Paulo, SP, 01506-000, Brazil
| | - Flaviano L R Silva
- Interdisciplinary Program of Health Sciences, Cruzeiro do Sul University, Rua Galvao Bueno, 868, Liberdade, Sao Paulo, SP, 01506-000, Brazil
| | - Eliane B Silva
- Interdisciplinary Program of Health Sciences, Cruzeiro do Sul University, Rua Galvao Bueno, 868, Liberdade, Sao Paulo, SP, 01506-000, Brazil
| | - Sarah O Poma
- Interdisciplinary Program of Health Sciences, Cruzeiro do Sul University, Rua Galvao Bueno, 868, Liberdade, Sao Paulo, SP, 01506-000, Brazil
| | - Matheus Gennari-Felipe
- Interdisciplinary Program of Health Sciences, Cruzeiro do Sul University, Rua Galvao Bueno, 868, Liberdade, Sao Paulo, SP, 01506-000, Brazil
| | - Patrícia N Iser-Bem
- Interdisciplinary Program of Health Sciences, Cruzeiro do Sul University, Rua Galvao Bueno, 868, Liberdade, Sao Paulo, SP, 01506-000, Brazil
| | - Laureane N Masi
- Interdisciplinary Program of Health Sciences, Cruzeiro do Sul University, Rua Galvao Bueno, 868, Liberdade, Sao Paulo, SP, 01506-000, Brazil
| | - Sherry Tang
- Kaiser Southern California Permanente Medical Group, Riverside, CA, 92505, USA
| | - Adriana C Levada-Pires
- Interdisciplinary Program of Health Sciences, Cruzeiro do Sul University, Rua Galvao Bueno, 868, Liberdade, Sao Paulo, SP, 01506-000, Brazil
| | - Elaine Hatanaka
- Interdisciplinary Program of Health Sciences, Cruzeiro do Sul University, Rua Galvao Bueno, 868, Liberdade, Sao Paulo, SP, 01506-000, Brazil
| | - Maria F Cury-Boaventura
- Interdisciplinary Program of Health Sciences, Cruzeiro do Sul University, Rua Galvao Bueno, 868, Liberdade, Sao Paulo, SP, 01506-000, Brazil
| | - Fernanda T Borges
- Interdisciplinary Program of Health Sciences, Cruzeiro do Sul University, Rua Galvao Bueno, 868, Liberdade, Sao Paulo, SP, 01506-000, Brazil
| | - Tania C Pithon-Curi
- Interdisciplinary Program of Health Sciences, Cruzeiro do Sul University, Rua Galvao Bueno, 868, Liberdade, Sao Paulo, SP, 01506-000, Brazil
| | - Marli C Curpertino
- Medical School, Faculdade Dinâmica do Vale do Piranga, Ponte Nova, MG, Brazil.,Laboratory of Epidemiological and Computational Methods in Health, Department of Medicine and Nursing, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, MG, Brazil
| | - Jarlei Fiamoncini
- School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil.,Food Research Center (FoRC), Sao Paulo, Brazil
| | | | - Renata Gorjao
- Interdisciplinary Program of Health Sciences, Cruzeiro do Sul University, Rua Galvao Bueno, 868, Liberdade, Sao Paulo, SP, 01506-000, Brazil
| | - Rui Curi
- Interdisciplinary Program of Health Sciences, Cruzeiro do Sul University, Rua Galvao Bueno, 868, Liberdade, Sao Paulo, SP, 01506-000, Brazil.,Butantan Institute, Sao Paulo, Brazil
| | - Sandro Massao Hirabara
- Interdisciplinary Program of Health Sciences, Cruzeiro do Sul University, Rua Galvao Bueno, 868, Liberdade, Sao Paulo, SP, 01506-000, Brazil.
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7
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Almeida GB, Vilches TN, Ferreira CP, Fortaleza CMCB. Addressing the COVID-19 transmission in inner Brazil by a mathematical model. Sci Rep 2021; 11:10760. [PMID: 34031456 PMCID: PMC8144226 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-90118-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/24/2020] [Accepted: 05/06/2021] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Abstract
In 2020, the world experienced its very first pandemic of the globalized era. A novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, is the causative agent of severe pneumonia and has rapidly spread through many nations, crashing health systems and leading a large number of people to death. In Brazil, the emergence of local epidemics in major metropolitan areas has always been a concern. In a vast and heterogeneous country, with regional disparities and climate diversity, several factors can modulate the dynamics of COVID-19. What should be the scenario for inner Brazil, and what can we do to control infection transmission in each of these locations? Here, a mathematical model is proposed to simulate disease transmission among individuals in several scenarios, differing by abiotic factors, social-economic factors, and effectiveness of mitigation strategies. The disease control relies on keeping all individuals’ social distancing and detecting, followed by isolating, infected ones. The model reinforces social distancing as the most efficient method to control disease transmission. Moreover, it also shows that improving the detection and isolation of infected individuals can loosen this mitigation strategy. Finally, the effectiveness of control may be different across the country, and understanding it can help set up public health strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- G B Almeida
- Medical School of Botucatu, São Paulo State University, Botucatu, 18618-687, Brazil.
| | - T N Vilches
- Institute of Mathematics, Statistics, and Scientific Computing, University of Campinas, Campinas, 13083-859, Brazil
| | - C P Ferreira
- Institute of Biosciences, São Paulo State University, Botucatu, 18618-689, Brazil
| | - C M C B Fortaleza
- Medical School of Botucatu, São Paulo State University, Botucatu, 18618-687, Brazil
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Fortaleza CMCB, Guimarães RB, Catão RDC, Ferreira CP, Berg de Almeida G, Nogueira Vilches T, Pugliesi E. The use of health geography modeling to understand early dispersion of COVID-19 in São Paulo, Brazil. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0245051. [PMID: 33411768 PMCID: PMC7790416 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0245051] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/26/2020] [Accepted: 12/21/2020] [Indexed: 01/31/2023] Open
Abstract
Public health policies to contain the spread of COVID-19 rely mainly on non-pharmacological measures. Those measures, especially social distancing, are a challenge for developing countries, such as Brazil. In São Paulo, the most populous state in Brazil (45 million inhabitants), most COVID-19 cases up to April 18th were reported in the Capital and metropolitan area. However, the inner municipalities, where 20 million people live, are also at risk. As governmental authorities discuss the loosening of measures for restricting population mobility, it is urgent to analyze the routes of dispersion of COVID-19 in São Paulo territory. We hypothesize that urban hierarchy is the main responsible for the disease spreading, and we identify the hotspots and the main routes of virus movement from the metropolis to the inner state. In this ecological study, we use geographic models of population mobility to check for patterns for the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infection. We identify two patterns based on surveillance data: one by contiguous diffusion from the capital metropolitan area, and the other hierarchical with long-distance spread through major highways that connects São Paulo city with cities of regional relevance. This knowledge can provide real-time responses to support public health strategies, optimizing the use of resources in order to minimize disease impact on population and economy.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Raul Borges Guimarães
- Department of Geography, Faculty of Science and Technology, São Paulo State University (UNESP), Presidente Prudente, São Paulo State, Brazil
| | - Rafael de Castro Catão
- Department of Geography, Federal University of Espírito Santo, Vitória, Espírito Santo State, Brazil
| | - Cláudia Pio Ferreira
- Institute of Biosciences, São Paulo State University (UNESP), Botucatu, São Paulo State, Brazil
| | - Gabriel Berg de Almeida
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Botucatu Medical School, São Paulo State University (UNESP), Botucatu, São Paulo State, Brazil
| | - Thomas Nogueira Vilches
- Institute of Mathematics, Statistics and Scientific Computation, University of Campinas (UNICAMP), Campinas, São Paulo State, Brazil
| | - Edmur Pugliesi
- Department of Geography, Faculty of Science and Technology, São Paulo State University (UNESP), Presidente Prudente, São Paulo State, Brazil
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