Quantitative Ranking of Ligand Binding Kinetics with a Multiscale Milestoning Simulation Approach

QMrebind: incorporating quantum mechanical force field reparameterization at the ligand binding site for improved drug-target kinetics through milestoning simulations

Understanding the interaction of ligands with biomolecules is an integral component of drug discovery and development. Challenges for computing thermodynamic and kinetic quantities for pharmaceutically relevant receptor-ligand complexes include the size and flexibility of the ligands, large-scale conformational rearrangements of the receptor, accurate force field parameters, simulation efficiency, and sufficient sampling associated with rare events. Our recently developed multiscale milestoning simulation approach, SEEKR2 (Simulation Enabled Estimation of Kinetic Rates v.2), has demonstrated success in predicting unbinding (koff) kinetics by employing molecular dynamics (MD) simulations in regions closer to the binding site. The MD region is further subdivided into smaller Voronoi tessellations to improve the simulation efficiency and parallelization. To date, all MD simulations are run using general molecular mechanics (MM) force fields. The accuracy of calculations can be further improved by incorporating quantum mechanical (QM) methods into generating system-specific force fields through reparameterizing ligand partial charges in the bound state. The force field reparameterization process modifies the potential energy landscape of the bimolecular complex, enabling a more accurate representation of the intermolecular interactions and polarization effects at the bound state. We present QMrebind (Quantum Mechanical force field reparameterization at the receptor-ligand binding site), an ORCA-based software that facilitates reparameterizing the potential energy function within the phase space representing the bound state in a receptor-ligand complex. With SEEKR2 koff estimates and experimentally determined kinetic rates, we compare and interpret the receptor-ligand unbinding kinetics obtained using the newly reparameterized force fields for model host-guest systems and HSP90-inhibitor complexes. This method provides an opportunity to achieve higher accuracy in predicting receptor-ligand koff rate constants.

Dissociation Rate Calculation via Constant-Force Steered Molecular Dynamics Simulation

Steered molecular dynamics (SMD) simulations are used to study molecular dissociation events by applying a harmonic force to the molecules and pulling them at a constant velocity. Instead of constant-velocity pulling, we use a constant force: the constant-force SMD (CF-SMD) simulation. The CF-SMD simulation employs a constant force to reduce the activation barrier of molecular dissociation, thereby enhancing the dissociation event. Here, we present the capability of the CF-SMD simulation to estimate the dissociation time at equilibrium. We performed all-atom CF-SMD simulations for NaCl and protein-ligand systems, producing dissociation time at various forces. We extrapolated these values to the dissociation rate without a constant force using Bell's model or the Dudko-Hummer-Szabo model. We demonstrate that the CF-SMD simulations with the models predicted the dissociation time in equilibrium. A CF-SMD simulation is a powerful tool for estimating the dissociation rate in a direct and computationally efficient manner.

ScMiles2: A Script to Conduct and Analyze Milestoning Trajectories for Long Time Dynamics

Milestoning is a theory and an algorithm that computes kinetics and thermodynamics at long time scales. It is based on partitioning the (phase) space into cells and running a large number of short trajectories between the boundaries of the cells. The termination points of the trajectories are analyzed with the Milestoning theory to obtain kinetic and thermodynamic information. Managing the tens to hundreds of thousands of Milestoning trajectories is a challenge, which we handle with a python script, ScMiles. Here, we introduce a new version of the python script ScMiles2 to conduct Milestoning simulations. Major enhancements are: (i) post analysis of Milestoning trajectories to obtain the free energy, mean first passage time, the committor function, and exit times; (ii) similar to (i) but the post analysis is for a single long trajectory; (iii) we support the use of the GROMACS software in addition to NAMD; (iv) a restart option; (v) the automated finding, sampling, and launching trajectories from new milestones that are found on the fly; and (vi) support Milestoning calculations with several coarse variables and for complex reaction coordinates. We also evaluate the simulation parameters and suggest new algorithmic features to enhance the rate of convergence of observables. We propose the use of an iteration-averaged kinetic matrix for a rapid approach to asymptotic values. Illustrations are provided for small systems and one large example.

Protein Flexibility and Dissociation Pathway Differentiation Can Explain Onset of Resistance Mutations in Kinases

Understanding how mutations render a drug ineffective is a problem of immense relevance. Often the mechanism through which mutations cause drug resistance can be explained purely through thermodynamics. However, the more perplexing situation is when two proteins have the same drug binding affinities but different residence times. In this work, we demonstrate how all-atom molecular dynamics simulations using recent developments grounded in statistical mechanics can provide a detailed mechanistic rationale for such variances. We discover dissociation mechanisms for the anti-cancer drug Imatinib (Gleevec) against wild-type and the N368S mutant of Abl kinase. We show how this point mutation triggers far-reaching changes in the protein's flexibility and leads to a different, much faster, drug dissociation pathway. We believe that this work marks an efficient and scalable approach to obtain mechanistic insight into resistance mutations in biomolecular receptors that are hard to explain using a structural perspective.

SEEKR2: Versatile Multiscale Milestoning Utilizing the OpenMM Molecular Dynamics Engine

We present SEEKR2 (simulation-enabled estimation of kinetic rates version 2)—the latest iteration in the family of SEEKR programs for using multiscale simulation methods to computationally estimate the kinetics and thermodynamics of molecular processes, in particular, ligand-receptor binding. SEEKR2 generates equivalent, or improved, results compared to the earlier versions of SEEKR but with significant increases in speed and capabilities. SEEKR2 has also been built with greater ease of usability and with extensible features to enable future expansions of the method. Now, in addition to supporting simulations using NAMD, calculations may be run with the fast and extensible OpenMM simulation engine. The Brownian dynamics portion of the calculation has also been upgraded to Browndye 2. Furthermore, this version of SEEKR supports hydrogen mass repartitioning, which significantly reduces computational cost, while showing little, if any, loss of accuracy in the predicted kinetics.

Micellar Composition Affects Lipid Accretion Kinetics in Molecular Dynamics Simulations: Support for Lipid Network Reproduction

Mixed lipid micelles were proposed to facilitate life through their documented growth dynamics and catalytic properties. Our previous research predicted that micellar self-reproduction involves catalyzed accretion of lipid molecules by the residing lipids, leading to compositional homeostasis. Here, we employ atomistic Molecular Dynamics simulations, beginning with 54 lipid monomers, tracking an entire course of micellar accretion. This was done to examine the self-assembly of variegated lipid clusters, allowing us to measure entry and exit rates of monomeric lipids into pre-micelles with different compositions and sizes. We observe considerable rate-modifications that depend on the assembly composition and scrutinize the underlying mechanisms as well as the energy contributions. Lastly, we describe the measured potential for compositional homeostasis in our simulated mixed micelles. This affirms the basis for micellar self-reproduction, with implications for the study of the origin of life.

Estimation of binding rates and affinities from multiensemble Markov models and ligand decoupling

Accurate and efficient simulation of the thermodynamics and kinetics of protein-ligand interactions is crucial for computational drug discovery. Multiensemble Markov Model (MEMM) estimators can provide estimates of both binding rates and affinities from collections of short trajectories but have not been systematically explored for situations when a ligand is decoupled through scaling of non-bonded interactions. In this work, we compare the performance of two MEMM approaches for estimating ligand binding affinities and rates: (1) the transition-based reweighting analysis method (TRAM) and (2) a Maximum Caliber (MaxCal) based method. As a test system, we construct a small host-guest system where the ligand is a single uncharged Lennard-Jones (LJ) particle, and the receptor is an 11-particle icosahedral pocket made from the same atom type. To realistically mimic a protein-ligand binding system, the LJ ϵ parameter was tuned, and the system was placed in a periodic box with 860 TIP3P water molecules. A benchmark was performed using over 80 µs of unbiased simulation, and an 18-state Markov state model was used to estimate reference binding affinities and rates. We then tested the performance of TRAM and MaxCal when challenged with limited data. Both TRAM and MaxCal approaches perform better than conventional Markov state models, with TRAM showing better convergence and accuracy. We find that subsampling of trajectories to remove time correlation improves the accuracy of both TRAM and MaxCal and that in most cases, only a single biased ensemble to enhance sampled transitions is required to make accurate estimates.

Markovian Weighted Ensemble Milestoning (M-WEM): Long-Time Kinetics from Short Trajectories

We introduce a rare-event sampling scheme, named Markovian Weighted Ensemble Milestoning (M-WEM), which inlays a weighted ensemble framework within a Markovian milestoning theory to efficiently calculate thermodynamic and kinetic properties of long-time-scale biomolecular processes from short atomistic molecular dynamics simulations. M-WEM is tested on the Müller-Brown potential model, the conformational switching in alanine dipeptide, and the millisecond time-scale protein-ligand unbinding in a trypsin-benzamidine complex. Not only can M-WEM predict the kinetics of these processes with quantitative accuracy but it also allows for a scheme to reconstruct a multidimensional free-energy landscape along additional degrees of freedom, which are not part of the milestoning progress coordinate. For the ligand-receptor system, the experimental residence time, association and dissociation kinetics, and binding free energy could be reproduced using M-WEM within a simulation time of a few hundreds of nanoseconds, which is a fraction of the computational cost of other currently available methods, and close to 4 orders of magnitude less than the experimental residence time. Due to the high accuracy and low computational cost, the M-WEM approach can find potential applications in kinetics and free-energy-based computational drug design.

Atomistic description of molecular binding processes based on returning probability theory

The efficiency of molecular binding such as host-guest binding is commonly evaluated in terms of kinetics, such as rate coefficients. In general, to compute the coefficient of the overall binding process, we need to consider both the diffusion of reactants and barrier crossing to reach the bound state. Here, we develop a methodology of quantifying the rate coefficient of binding based on molecular dynamics simulation and returning probability (RP) theory proposed by Kim and Lee [J. Chem. Phys. 131, 014503 (2009)]. RP theory provides a tractable formula of the rate coefficient in terms of the thermodynamic stability and kinetics of the intermediate state on a predefined reaction coordinate. In this study, the interaction energy between reactants is utilized as the reaction coordinate, enabling us to effectively describe the reactants' relative position and orientation on one-dimensional space. Application of this method to the host-guest binding systems, which consist of β-cyclodextrin and small guest molecules, yields the rate coefficients consistent with the experimental results.

Multiscale Approach for Computing Gated Ligand Binding from Molecular Dynamics and Brownian Dynamics Simulations

We develop an approach to characterize the effects of gating by a multiconformation protein consisting of macrostate conformations that are either accessible or inaccessible to ligand binding. We first construct a Markov state model of the apo-protein from atomistic molecular dynamics simulations from which we identify macrostates and their conformations, compute their relative macrostate populations and interchange kinetics, and structurally characterize them in terms of ligand accessibility. We insert the calculated first-order rate constants for conformational transitions into a multistate gating theory from which we derive a gating factor γ that quantifies the degree of conformational gating. Applied to HIV-1 protease, our approach yields a kinetic network of three accessible (semi-open, open, and wide-open) and two inaccessible (closed and a newly identified, "parted") macrostate conformations. The parted conformation sterically partitions the active site, suggesting a possible role in product release. We find that the binding kinetics of drugs and drug-like inhibitors to HIV-1 protease falls in the slow gating regime. However, because γ = 0.75, conformational gating only modestly slows ligand binding. Brownian dynamics simulations of the diffusional association of eight inhibitors to the protease─having a wide range of experimental association constants (∼10⁴-10¹⁰ M^-1 s^-1)─yields gated rate constants in the range of ∼0.5-5.7 × 10⁸ M^-1 s^-1. This indicates that, whereas the association rate of some inhibitors could be described by the model, for many inhibitors either subsequent conformational transitions or alternate binding mechanisms may be rate-limiting. For systems known to be modulated by conformational gating, the approach could be scaled computationally efficiently to screen association kinetics for a large number of ligands.

Protein-Ligand Dissociation Rate Constant from All-Atom Simulation

Dissociation of a ligand isoniazid from a protein catalase was investigated using all-atom molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. Random acceleration MD (τ-RAMD) was used, in which a random artificial force applied to the ligand facilitates its dissociation. We have suggested a novel approach to extrapolate such obtained dissociation times to the zero-force limit assuming never before attempted universal exponential dependence of the bond strength on the applied force, allowing direct comparison with experimentally measured values. We have found that our calculated dissociation time was equal to 36.1 s with statistically significant values distributed in the interval of 0.2-72.0 s, which quantitatively matches the experimental value of 50 ± 8 s despite the extrapolation over 9 orders of magnitude in time.

The future of biomolecular simulation in the pharmaceutical industry: what we can learn from aerodynamics modelling and weather prediction. Part 1. understanding the physical and computational complexity of in silico drug design

The predictive power of simulation has become embedded in the infrastructure of modern economies. Computer-aided design is ubiquitous throughout industry. In aeronautical engineering, built infrastructure and materials manufacturing, simulations are routinely used to compute the performance of potential designs before construction. The ability to predict the behaviour of products is a driver of innovation by reducing the cost barrier to new designs, but also because radically novel ideas can be piloted with relatively little risk. Accurate weather forecasting is essential to guide domestic and military flight paths, and therefore the underpinning simulations are critical enough to have implications for national security. However, in the pharmaceutical and biotechnological industries, the application of computer simulations remains limited by the capabilities of the technology with respect to the complexity of molecular biology and human physiology. Over the last 30 years, molecular-modelling tools have gradually gained a degree of acceptance in the pharmaceutical industry. Drug discovery has begun to benefit from physics-based simulations. While such simulations have great potential for improved molecular design, much scepticism remains about their value. The motivations for such reservations in industry and areas where simulations show promise for efficiency gains in preclinical research are discussed. In this, the first of two complementary papers, the scientific and technical progress that needs to be made to improve the predictive power of biomolecular simulations, and how this might be achieved, is firstly discussed (Part 1). In Part 2, the status of computer simulations in pharma is contrasted with aerodynamics modelling and weather forecasting, and comments are made on the cultural changes needed for equivalent computational technologies to become integrated into life-science industries.

Multiscale molecular kinetics by coupling Markov state models and reaction-diffusion dynamics

A novel approach to simulate simple protein-ligand systems at large time and length scales is to couple Markov state models (MSMs) of molecular kinetics with particle-based reaction-diffusion (RD) simulations, MSM/RD. Currently, MSM/RD lacks a mathematical framework to derive coupling schemes, is limited to isotropic ligands in a single conformational state, and lacks multiparticle extensions. In this work, we address these needs by developing a general MSM/RD framework by coarse-graining molecular dynamics into hybrid switching diffusion processes. Given enough data to parameterize the model, it is capable of modeling protein-protein interactions over large time and length scales, and it can be extended to handle multiple molecules. We derive the MSM/RD framework, and we implement and verify it for two protein-protein benchmark systems and one multiparticle implementation to model the formation of pentameric ring molecules. To enable reproducibility, we have published our code in the MSM/RD software package.

New perspectives in cancer drug development: computational advances with an eye to design

Computational chemistry has come of age in drug discovery. Indeed, most pharmaceutical development programs rely on computer-based data and results at some point. Herein, we discuss recent applications of advanced simulation techniques to difficult challenges in drug discovery. These entail the characterization of allosteric mechanisms and the identification of allosteric sites or cryptic pockets determined by protein motions, which are not immediately evident in the experimental structure of the target; the study of ligand binding mechanisms and their kinetic profiles; and the evaluation of drug-target affinities. We analyze different approaches to tackle challenging and emerging biological targets. Finally, we discuss the possible perspectives of future application of computation in drug discovery.

Computer Simulations of the Dissociation Mechanism of Gleevec from Abl Kinase with Milestoning

Gleevec (a.k.a., imatinib) is an important anticancer (e.g., chronic myeloid leukemia) chemotherapeutic drug due to its inhibitory interaction with the Abl kinase. Here, we use atomically detailed simulations within the Milestoning framework to study the molecular dissociation mechanism of Gleevec from Abl kinase. We compute the dissociation free energy profile, the mean first passage time for unbinding, and explore the transition state ensemble of conformations. The milestones form a multidimensional network with average connectivity of about 2.93, which is significantly higher than the connectivity for a one-dimensional reaction coordinate. The free energy barrier for Gleevec dissociation is estimated to be ∼10 kcal/mol, and the exit time is ∼55 ms. We examined the transition state conformations using both, the committor and transition function. We show that near the transition state the highly conserved salt bridge K217 and E286 is transiently broken. Together with the calculated free energy profile, these calculations can advance the understanding of the molecular interaction mechanisms between Gleevec and Abl kinase and play a role in future drug design and optimization studies.

Markov State Models to Elucidate Ligand Binding Mechanism

Molecular dynamics simulations can now routinely access the microsecond timescale, making feasible direct sampling of ligand association events. While Markov State Model (MSM) approaches offer a useful framework for analyzing such trajectory data to gain insight into binding mechanisms, accurate modeling of ligand association pathways and kinetics must be done carefully. We describe methods and good practices for constructing MSMs of ligand binding from unbiased trajectory data and discuss how to use time-lagged independent component analysis (tICA) to build informative models, using as an example recent simulation work to model the binding of phenylalanine to the regulatory ACT domain dimer of phenylalanine hydroxylase. We describe a variety of methods for estimating association rates from MSMs and discuss how to distinguish between conformational selection and induced-fit mechanisms using MSMs. In addition, we review some examples of MSMs constructed to elucidate the mechanisms by which p53 transactivation domain (TAD) and related peptides bind the oncoprotein MDM2.

Ranking of Ligand Binding Kinetics Using a Weighted Ensemble Approach and Comparison with a Multiscale Milestoning Approach

To improve lead optimization efforts in finding the right ligand, pharmaceutical industries need to know the ligand's binding kinetics, such as binding and unbinding rate constants, which often correlate with the ligand's efficacy in vivo. To predict binding kinetics efficiently, enhanced sampling methods, such as milestoning and the weighted ensemble (WE) method, have been used in molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of these systems. However, a comparison of these enhanced sampling methods in ranking ligands has not been done. Hence, a WE approach called the concurrent adaptive sampling (CAS) algorithm that uses MD simulations was used to rank seven ligands for β-cyclodextrin, a system in which a multiscale milestoning approach called simulation enabled estimation of kinetic rates (SEEKR) was also used, which uses both MD and Brownian dynamics simulations. Overall, the CAS algorithm can successfully rank ligands using the unbinding rate constant k_off values and binding free energy ΔG values, as SEEKR did, with reduced computational cost that is about the same as SEEKR. We compare the CAS algorithm simulations with different parameters and discuss the impact of parameters in ranking ligands and obtaining rate constant and binding free energy estimates. We also discuss similarities and differences and advantages and disadvantages of SEEKR and the CAS algorithm for future use.

Kinetics and free energy of ligand dissociation using weighted ensemble milestoning

We consider the recently developed weighted ensemble milestoning (WEM) scheme [D. Ray and I. Andricioaei, J. Chem. Phys. 152, 234114 (2020)] and test its capability of simulating ligand-receptor dissociation dynamics. We performed WEM simulations on the following host-guest systems: Na⁺/Cl^- ion pair and 4-hydroxy-2-butanone ligand with FK506 binding protein. As a proof of principle, we show that the WEM formalism reproduces the Na⁺/Cl^- ion pair dissociation timescale and the free energy profile obtained from long conventional MD simulation. To increase the accuracy of WEM calculations applied to kinetics and thermodynamics in protein-ligand binding, we introduced a modified WEM scheme called weighted ensemble milestoning with restraint release (WEM-RR), which can increase the number of starting points per milestone without adding additional computational cost. WEM-RR calculations obtained a ligand residence time and binding free energy in agreement with experimental and previous computational results. Moreover, using the milestoning framework, the binding time and rate constants, dissociation constants, and committor probabilities could also be calculated at a low computational cost. We also present an analytical approach for estimating the association rate constant (k_on) when binding is primarily diffusion driven. We show that the WEM method can efficiently calculate multiple experimental observables describing ligand-receptor binding/unbinding and is a promising candidate for computer-aided inhibitor design.

Exploring the Reaction Mechanism of HIV Reverse Transcriptase with a Nucleotide Substrate

Enzymatic reactions consist of several steps: (i) a weak binding event of the substrate to the enzyme, (ii) an induced fit or a protein conformational transition upon ligand binding, (iii) the chemical reaction, and (iv) the release of the product. Here we focus on step iii of the reaction of a DNA polymerase, HIV RT, with a nucleotide. We determine the rate and the free energy profile for the addition of a nucleotide to a DNA strand using a combination of a QM/MM model, the string method, and exact Milestoning. The barrier height and the time scale of the reaction are consistent with experiment. We show that the observables (free energies and mean first passage time) converge rapidly, as a function of the Milestoning iteration number. We also consider the substitution of an oxygen of the incoming nucleotide by a nonbridging sulfur atom and its impact on the enzymatic reaction. This substitution has been suggested in the past as a tool to examine the influence of the chemical step on the overall rate. Our joint computational and experimental study suggests that the impact of the substitution is small. Computationally, the differences between the two are within the estimated error bars. Experiments suggest a small difference. Finally, we examine step i, the weak binding of the nucleotide to the protein surface. We suggest that this step has only a small contribution to the selectivity of the enzyme. Comments are made on the impact of these steps on the overall mechanism.

Multiscale simulation approaches to modeling drug-protein binding

Simulations can provide detailed insight into the molecular processes involved in drug action, such as protein-ligand binding, and can therefore be a valuable tool for drug design and development. Processes with a large range of length and timescales may be involved, and understanding these different scales typically requires different types of simulation methodology. Ideally, simulations should be able to connect across scales, to analyze and predict how changes at one scale can influence another. Multiscale simulation methods, which combine different levels of treatment, are an emerging frontier with great potential in this area. Here we review multiscale frameworks of various types, and selected applications to biomolecular systems with a focus on drug-ligand binding.

Transient States and Barriers from Molecular Simulations and the Milestoning Theory: Kinetics in Ligand-Protein Recognition and Compound Design

This study presents a novel computational approach to study molecular recognition and binding kinetics for drug-like compounds dissociating from a flexible protein system. The intermediates and their free energy profile during ligand association and dissociation processes control ligand-protein binding kinetics and bring a more complete picture of ligand-protein binding. The method applied the milestoning theory to extract kinetics and thermodynamics information from running short classical molecular dynamics (MD) simulations for frames from a given dissociation path. High-dimensional ligand-protein motions (3N-6 degrees of freedom) during ligand dissociation were reduced by use of principal component modes for assigning more than 100 milestones, and classical MD runs were allowed to travel multiple milestones to efficiently obtain ensemble distribution of initial structures for MD simulations and estimate the transition time and rate during ligand traveling between milestones. We used five pyrazolourea ligands and cyclin-dependent kinase 8 with cyclin C (CDK8/CycC) as our model system as well as metadynamics and a pathway search method to sample dissociation pathways. With our strategy, we constructed the free energy profile for highly mobile biomolecular systems. The computed binding free energy and residence time correctly ranked the pyrazolourea ligand series, in agreement with experimental data. Guided by a barrier of a ligand passing an αC helix and activation loop, we introduced one hydroxyl group to parent compounds to design our ligands with increased residence time and validated our prediction by experiments. This work provides a novel and robust approach to investigate dissociation kinetics of large and flexible systems for understanding unbinding mechanisms and designing new small-molecule drugs with desired binding kinetics.

ScMile: A Script to Investigate Kinetics with Short Time Molecular Dynamics Trajectories and the Milestoning Theory

Studies of complex and rare events in condensed phase systems continue to attract considerable attention. Milestoning is a useful theory and algorithm to investigate the long-time dynamics of activated molecular events. It is based on launching a large number of short trajectories and statistical analysis of the outcome. The implementation of the theory in a computer script is described that enables more efficient Milestoning calculation, reducing user time and errors, and automating a significant fraction of the algorithm. The script exploits a molecular dynamics engine, which at present is NAMD, to run the short trajectories. However, since the script is external to the engine, the script can be easily adapted to different molecular dynamics codes. The outcomes of the short trajectories are analyzed to obtain a kinetic and thermodynamic description of the entire process. While many examples of Milestoning were published in the past, we provide two simple examples (a conformational transition of alanine dipeptide in a vacuum and aqueous solution) to illustrate the use of the script.

Brownian Dynamics Simulations of Biological Molecules

Brownian dynamics (BD) is a technique for carrying out computer simulations of physical systems that are driven by thermal fluctuations. Biological systems at the macromolecular and cellular level, while falling in the gap between well-established atomic-level models and continuum models, are especially suitable for such simulations. We present a brief history, examples of important biological processes that are driven by thermal motion, and those that have been profitably studied by BD. We also present some of the challenges facing developers of algorithms and software, especially in the attempt to simulate larger systems more accurately and for longer times.

Variational implicit-solvent predictions of the dry-wet transition pathways for ligand-receptor binding and unbinding kinetics

Ligand-receptor binding and unbinding are fundamental biomolecular processes and particularly essential to drug efficacy. Environmental water fluctuations, however, impact the corresponding thermodynamics and kinetics and thereby challenge theoretical descriptions. Here, we devise a holistic, implicit-solvent, multimethod approach to predict the (un)binding kinetics for a generic ligand-pocket model. We use the variational implicit-solvent model (VISM) to calculate the solute-solvent interfacial structures and the corresponding free energies, and combine the VISM with the string method to obtain the minimum energy paths and transition states between the various metastable ("dry" and "wet") hydration states. The resulting dry-wet transition rates are then used in a spatially dependent multistate continuous-time Markov chain Brownian dynamics simulation and the related Fokker-Planck equation calculations of the ligand stochastic motion, providing the mean first-passage times for binding and unbinding. We find the hydration transitions to significantly slow down the binding process, in semiquantitative agreement with existing explicit-water simulations, but significantly accelerate the unbinding process. Moreover, our methods allow the characterization of nonequilibrium hydration states of pocket and ligand during the ligand movement, for which we find substantial memory and hysteresis effects for binding vs. unbinding. Our study thus provides a significant step forward toward efficient, physics-based interpretation and predictions of the complex kinetics in realistic ligand-receptor systems.

Kinetics of Drug Binding and Residence Time

The kinetics of drug binding and unbinding is assuming an increasingly crucial role in the long, costly process of bringing a new medicine to patients. For example, the time a drug spends in contact with its biological target is known as residence time (the inverse of the kinetic constant of the drug-target unbinding, 1/ koff). Recent reports suggest that residence time could predict drug efficacy in vivo, perhaps even more effectively than conventional thermodynamic parameters (free energy, enthalpy, entropy). There are many experimental and computational methods for predicting drug-target residence time at an early stage of drug discovery programs. Here, we review and discuss the methodological approaches to estimating drug binding kinetics and residence time. We first introduce the theoretical background of drug binding kinetics from a physicochemical standpoint. We then analyze the recent literature in the field, starting from the experimental methodologies and applications thereof and moving to theoretical and computational approaches to the kinetics of drug binding and unbinding. We acknowledge the central role of molecular dynamics and related methods, which comprise a great number of the computational methods and applications reviewed here. However, we also consider kinetic Monte Carlo. We conclude with the outlook that drug (un)binding kinetics may soon become a go/no go step in the discovery and development of new medicines.