Progressive disease rate as a surrogate endpoint of phase II trials for non-small-cell lung cancer

Modelling approaches for histology-independent cancer drugs to inform NICE appraisals: a systematic review and decision-framework

BACKGROUND

The first histology-independent marketing authorisation in Europe was granted in 2019. This was the first time that a cancer treatment was approved based on a common biomarker rather than the location in the body at which the tumour originated. This research aims to explore the implications for National Institute for Health and Care Excellence appraisals.

METHODS

Targeted reviews were undertaken to determine the type of evidence that is likely to be available at the point of marketing authorisation and the analyses required to support National Institute for Health and Care Excellence appraisals. Several challenges were identified concerning the design and conduct of trials for histology-independent products, the greater levels of heterogeneity within the licensed population and the use of surrogate end points. We identified approaches to address these challenges by reviewing key statistical literature that focuses on the design and analysis of histology-independent trials and by undertaking a systematic review to evaluate the use of response end points as surrogate outcomes for survival end points. We developed a decision framework to help to inform approval and research policies for histology-independent products. The framework explored the uncertainties and risks associated with different approval policies, including the role of further data collection, pricing schemes and stratified decision-making.

RESULTS

We found that the potential for heterogeneity in treatment effects, across tumour types or other characteristics, is likely to be a central issue for National Institute for Health and Care Excellence appraisals. Bayesian hierarchical methods may serve as a useful vehicle to assess the level of heterogeneity across tumours and to estimate the pooled treatment effects for each tumour, which can inform whether or not the assumption of homogeneity is reasonable. Our review suggests that response end points may not be reliable surrogates for survival end points. However, a surrogate-based modelling approach, which captures all relevant uncertainty, may be preferable to the use of immature survival data. Several additional sources of heterogeneity were identified as presenting potential challenges to National Institute for Health and Care Excellence appraisal, including the cost of testing, baseline risk, quality of life and routine management costs. We concluded that a range of alternative approaches will be required to address different sources of heterogeneity to support National Institute for Health and Care Excellence appraisals. An exemplar case study was developed to illustrate the nature of the assessments that may be required.

CONCLUSIONS

Adequately designed and analysed basket studies that assess the homogeneity of outcomes and allow borrowing of information across baskets, where appropriate, are recommended. Where there is evidence of heterogeneity in treatment effects and estimates of cost-effectiveness, consideration should be given to optimised recommendations. Routine presentation of the scale of the consequences of heterogeneity and decision uncertainty may provide an important additional approach to the assessments specified in the current National Institute for Health and Care Excellence methods guide.

FURTHER RESEARCH

Further exploration of Bayesian hierarchical methods could help to inform decision-makers on whether or not there is sufficient evidence of homogeneity to support pooled analyses. Further research is also required to determine the appropriate basis for apportioning genomic testing costs where there are multiple targets and to address the challenges of uncontrolled Phase II studies, including the role and use of surrogate end points.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Evidence Synthesis programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 76. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

A systematic review of meta-analyses assessing the validity of tumour response endpoints as surrogates for progression-free or overall survival in cancer

BACKGROUND

Tumour response endpoints, such as overall response rate (ORR) and complete response (CR), are increasingly used in cancer trials. However, the validity of response-based surrogates is unclear. This systematic review summarises meta-analyses assessing the association between response-based outcomes and overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS) or time-to-progression (TTP).

METHODS

Five databases were searched to March 2019. Meta-analyses reporting correlation or regression between response-based outcomes and OS, PFS or TTP were summarised.

RESULTS

The systematic review included 63 studies across 20 cancer types, most commonly non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), colorectal cancer (CRC) and breast cancer. The strength of association between ORR or CR and either PFS or OS varied widely between and within studies, with no clear pattern by cancer type. The association between ORR and OS appeared weaker and more variable than that between ORR and PFS, both for associations between absolute endpoints and associations between treatment effects.

CONCLUSIONS

This systematic review suggests that response-based endpoints, such as ORR and CR, may not be reliable surrogates for PFS or OS. Where it is necessary to use tumour response to predict treatment effects on survival outcomes, it is important to fully reflect all statistical uncertainty in the surrogate relationship.

Strength of Validation for Surrogate End Points Used in the US Food and Drug Administration's Approval of Oncology Drugs

OBJECTIVE

To determine the strength of the surrogate-survival correlation for cancer drug approvals based on a surrogate.

PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS

We performed a retrospective study of the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) database, with focused searches of MEDLINE and Google Scholar. Among cancer drugs approved based on a surrogate end point, we examined previous publications assessing the strength of the surrogate-survival correlation. Specifically, we identified the percentage of surrogate approvals lacking any formal analysis of the strength of the surrogate-survival correlation, and when conducted, the strength of such correlations.

RESULTS

Between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2014, the FDA approved marketing applications for 55 indications based on a surrogate, of which 25 were accelerated approvals and 30 were traditional approvals. We could not find any formal analyses of the strength of the surrogate-survival correlation in 14 out of 25 accelerated approvals (56%) and 11 out of 30 traditional approvals (37%). For accelerated approvals, just 4 approvals (16%) were made where a level 1 analysis (the most robust way to validate a surrogate) had been performed, with all 4 studies reporting low correlation (r≤0.7). For traditional approvals, a level 1 analysis had been performed for 15 approvals (50%): 8 (53%) reported low correlation (r≤0.7), 4 (27%) medium correlation (r>0.7 to r<0.85), and 3 (20%) high correlation (r≥0.85) with survival.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of surrogate end points for drug approval often lacks formal empirical verification of the strength of the surrogate-survival association.

Comparison of metabolic and anatomic response to chemotherapy based on PERCIST and RECIST in patients with advanced stage non-small cell lung cancer

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to explore the prognostic role of metabolic response to chemotherapy, determined by FDG-PET, in patients with metastatic non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Thirty patients with metastatic NSCLC were analyzed for prognostic factors related to overall survival (OS) and progression free survival (PFS). Disease evaluation was conducted with FDG-PET/CT and contrast-enhanced CT prior to and at the end of first-line chemotherapy. Response evaluation of 19 of 30 patients was also performed after 2-3 cycles of chemotherapy. Morphological and metabolic responses were assessed according to RECIST and PERCIST, respectively.

RESULTS

The median OS and PFS were 11 months and 6.2 months, respectively. At the end of first-line chemotherapy, 10 patients achieved metabolic and anatomic responses. Of the 19 patients who had an interim response analysis after 2-3 cycles of chemotherapy, 3 achieved an anatomic response, while 9 achieved a metabolic response. In univariate analyses, favorable prognostic factors for OS were number of cycles of first-line chemotherapy, and achieving a response to chemotherapy at completion of therapy according to the PERCIST and RECIST. The OS of patients with a metabolic response after 2-3 cycles of chemotherapy was also significantly extended. Anatomic response at interim analysis did not predict OS, probably due to few patients with anatomic response. In multivariate analyses, metabolic response after completion of therapy was an independent prognostic factor for OS.

CONCLUSIONS

Metabolic response is at least as effective as anatomic response in predicting survival. Metabolic response may be an earlier predictive factor for treatment response and OS in NSCLC patients.

Does early PET/CT assesment of response to chemotherapy predicts survival in patients with advanced stage non-small-cell lung cancer?

The aim of this study is to determine the prognostic role and the timing of metabolic response to chemotherapy, based on F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (F-FDG-PET), in patients with metastatic non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The study included 55 patients with metastatic NSCLC that were analyzed in terms of prognostic factors and survival. F-FDG-PET/CT findings were evaluated in patients separated into 3 groups, before and after 1st, 2nd, 3rd cycle of the first line chemotherapy. Metabolic response was assessed according to PET Response Criteria in Solid Tumors (PERCIST 1.0). Among the 55 patients, 34 (62%) died, and 21 (38%) remained alive during a mean follow-up of 13.5 months. Median overall survival (OS) was 11.69 months (range 2-26.80 months) and median progression-free survival (PFS) was 6.27 months (range 1.37-20.43 months). Univariate analysis showed that the only favorable prognostic factor for OS in all the patients was the achievement of metabolic response. Metabolic response according to PERCIST, and weight lose ≤ 5% were also independent favorable prognostic factors predictive of survival in all patients based on multivariet analysis (metabolic response: P=0.002, OR; 1.90, 95% CI 1.26-2.89, and weight lose ≤5%: P=0.022, OR; 2.24, 95% CI 1.12-4.47). Median OS in all patients with partial response (PR)-according to the PERCIST 1.0- was significantly longer than in those with progressive disease (PD) (16.36 months vs 8.14 months, P=0.008). Median OS in the patients with PR was significantly longer than in those with PD based on PET/CT performed after 2nd and 3rd cycles of chemotherapy (18.35 months vs 7.54 months, P=0.012 and 18.04 months vs 7.43 months, P<0.001, respectively), whereas, median OS did not differ significantly between patients with PR and those with PD based on PET/CT performed after the 1st cycle of chemotherapy (8.01 months vs 5.08 months, P=0.290). Metabolic response according to PERCIST and weight loss are independent factors predictive of OS. PET/CT performed after second cycle of chemotherapy may be the earliest predictor of treatment response in patients with advanced stage NSCLC.

Surrogate end points for survival in the target treatment of advanced non-small-cell lung cancer with gefitinib or erlotinib

BACKGROUND

It is controversial for the use of survival surrogate end points including response rate (RR), disease control rate (DCR), time to progression, and progression-free survival (PFS) in trials of molecular targeted agents. Our aim was to determine the correlations of these surrogates with survival in the treatment of advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (ANSCLC) with epidermal growth factor receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitors (EGFR-TKIs), gefitinib and erlotinib.

METHODS

Summary data of median survival time (MST) and surrogates from prospective trials of EGFR-TKIs in ANSCLC were identified. Patient- or trial-related characteristics were introduced as covariates. Simple and multivariate linear regression models were fitted for MST and each surrogate, respectively. And the significance of each surrogate as a survival marker was compared by calculating the area under their receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.

RESULTS

Sixty eligible trials (9,903 patients) were enrolled. RR, DCR, and PFS were all strongly associated with MST. In their simple linear regression models, the coefficient of determination (R(2)) was 0.83 (p < 0.000001), 0.58 (p < 0.0001), and 0.70 (p < 0.0001), respectively. And in their multivariate linear regression models, the standard coefficient was 0.71 (p < 0.001), 0.40 (p < 0.001), and 0.74 (p < 0.001), respectively, while RR and PFS were the preferred survival predictors in the ROC analysis.

CONCLUSION

RR or PFS may serve as an appropriate survival surrogate in the clinical trials of EGFR-TKIs for ANSCLC.

A comparison of a new multinomial stopping rule with stopping rules of fleming and gehan in single arm phase II cancer clinical trials

Background

Response rate (RR) alone may be insensitive to drug activity in phase II trials. Early progressive disease (EPD) could improve sensitivity as well as increase stage I stopping rates. This study compares the previously developed dual endpoint stopping rule (DESR), which incorporates both RR and EPD into a two-stage, phase II trial, with rules using only RR.

Methods

Stopping rules according to the DESR were compared with studies conducted under the Fleming (16 trials) or Gehan (23 trials) designs. The RR hypothesis for the DESR was consistent with the comparison studies (r_alt = 0.2, r_nul = 0.05). Two parameter sets were used for EPD rates of interest and disinterest respectively (epd_alt, epd_nul): (0.4, 0.6) and (0.3, 0.5).

Results

Compared with Fleming, the DESR was more likely to allow stage two of accrual and to reject the null hypothesis (H_nul) after stage two, with rejection being more common with EPD parameters (0.4, 0.6) than (0.3, 0.5). Compared with Gehan, both DESR parameter sets accepted H_nul in 15 trials after stage I compared with 8 trials by Gehan, with consistent conclusions in all 23 trials after stage II.

Conclusions

The DESR may reject H_nul when EPD rates alone are low, and thereby may improve phase II trial sensitivity to active, cytostatic drugs having limited response rates. Conversely, the DESR may invoke early stopping when response rates are low and EPD rates are high, thus shortening trials when drug activity is unlikely. EPD parameters should be chosen specific to each trial.

Tumor response in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer: perfusion CT evaluation of chemotherapy and radiation therapy

OBJECTIVE

The objectives of this study were to prospectively evaluate changes in tumor perfusion after chemoradiation therapy and to investigate the feasibility of perfusion CT for prediction of early tumor response and prognosis of non-small cell lung cancer.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

Perfusion CT was performed on an MDCT scanner with 50 mL of iodinated contrast material injected at 4 mL/s. The quality of each functional map was rated from 0 to 3 for 123 patients with confirmed lung cancer. A subset of images was independently reviewed by two radiologists to measure interobserver and intraobserver variability. Perfusion parameters and tumor response were assessed for 35 patients with non-small cell lung cancer who underwent chemoradiation therapy. Progression-free survival and overall survival were analyzed for 22 patients who underwent repeated perfusion CT after therapy.

RESULTS

Image quality was graded 2 (moderate) or 3 (good) in 68.2% of cases. High interobserver and intraobserver correlations of perfusion parameters were found on qualified images. The patients who responded to chemoradiation therapy had significantly greater blood flow (p = 0.023) than patients who did not respond. The median progression-free survival period of the patients with an increased permeability-surface area product was 4.7 months, significantly lower than the median progression-free survival period of 19.0 months among patients with a decreased permeability-surface area product (p < 0.001). The median overall survival period was 10.6 months for the group with an increased permeability-surface area product, significantly lower than the 19.3 months for the group with a decreased permeability-surface area product (p = 0.004).

CONCLUSION

Non-small cell lung cancer with higher perfusion is more sensitive to chemoradiation therapy than that with lower perfusion. After chemoradiation therapy, findings at perfusion CT are a significant predictor of early tumor response and overall survival among patients with non-small cell lung cancer.

A landmark point analysis with cytotoxic agents for advanced NSCLC

INTRODUCTION

As a result of recent publications, we hypothesized that period of 8 weeks after initiation of treatment is a useful landmark point for cytotoxic agents for advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). To test this hypothesis, we conducted landmark analyses with clinical trials employing cytotoxic agents. Our goal was to assess the proper design of clinical trials with cytotoxic agents for NSCLC for maximizing patients' benefit.

METHODS

We conducted landmark analyses of a phase II study of pemetrexed in locally advanced or metastatic NSCLC and a phase III study of Four-Arm Cooperative Study for advanced NSCLC. A total of 806 patients who received chemotherapy (pemetrexed, cisplatin and irinotecan, paclitaxel and carboplatin, cisplatin and gemcitabine, cisplatin and vinorelbine) were included in this assessment.

RESULTS

Tumor-shrinkage rate at 8 weeks was significantly associated with longer survival in the study with pemetrexed (p = 0.043), whereas tumor-shrinkage rate at 4 weeks did not correlated with survival (p = 0.139). Similarly, using the Four-Arm Cooperative Study data, the optimal landmark point was 8 weeks (p = 0.002), not 4 weeks (p = 0.190).

CONCLUSION

The landmark point for NSCLC was 8 weeks with all cytotoxic agents in our analysis when the therapy was given as a frontline or subsequent therapy. Our result suggests the concept of a disease-specific landmark point, which may lead to a change of phase II/III clinical study design to evaluate cytotoxic agents and clinical investigators, and their sponsors may consider an early look to assess the efficacy of cytotoxic agents for NSCLC.

Predictive and prognostic value of FDG-PET

The predictive and prognostic value of fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG)-positron emission tomography (PET) in non-small-cell lung carcinoma, colorectal carcinoma and lymphoma is discussed. The degree of FDG uptake is of prognostic value at initial presentation, after induction treatment prior to resection and in the case of relapse of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). In locally advanced and advanced stages of NSCLC, FDG-PET has been shown to be predictive for clinical outcome at an early stage of treatment. In colorectal carcinoma, limited studies are available on the prognostic value of FDG-PET, however, the technique appears to have great potential in monitoring the success of local ablative therapies soon after intervention and in the prediction and evaluation of response to radiotherapy, systemic therapy, and combinations thereof. The prognostic value of end-of treatment FDG-PET for FDG-avid lymphomas has been established, and the next step is to define how to use this information to optimize patient outcome. In Hodgkin's lymphoma, FDG-PET has a high negative predictive value, however, histological confirmation of positive findings should be sought where possible. For non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, the opposite applies. The newly published standardized guidelines for interpretation formulates specific criteria for visual interpretation and for defining PET positivity in the liver, spleen, lung, bone marrow and small residual lesions. The introduction of these guidelines should reduce variability among studies. Interim PET offers a reliable method for early prediction of long-term remission, however it should only be performed in prospective randomized controlled trials. Many of the diagnostic and management questions considered in this review are relevant to other tumour types. Further research in this field is of great importance, since it may lead to a change in the therapeutic concept of cancer. The preliminary findings call for systematic inclusion of FDG-PET in therapeutic trials to adequately position FDG-PET in treatment time lines.

Predictive and prognostic value of FDG-PET in nonsmall-cell lung cancer: a systematic review

For several years, molecular imaging with (18)F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) has become part of the standard of care in presurgical staging of patients with nonsmall-cell lung cancer (NSCLC), focusing on the detection of malignant lesions at early stages, early detection of recurrence, and metastatic spread. Currently, there is an increasing interest in the role of FDG-PET beyond staging, such as the evaluation of biological characteristics of the tumor and prediction of prognosis in the context of treatment stratification and the early assessment of tumor response to therapy. In this systematic review, the literature on the value of the evolving applications of FDG-PET as a marker for prediction (ie, therapy response monitoring) and prognosis in NSCLC is addressed, divided in sections on the predictive value of FDG-PET in locally advanced and advanced disease, the prognostic value of FDG-PET at diagnosis, after induction treatment, and in recurrent disease. Furthermore, the background and recommendations for the application of FDG-PET for these indications will be discussed.

Relationship between Response and Survival in More Than 50,000 Patients with Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer Treated with Systemic Chemotherapy in 143 Phase III Trials

BACKGROUND

The association between the objective response to chemotherapy and survival has not yet been fully evaluated using large cohorts in advanced non-small cell lung cancer.

METHODS

We searched for phase III trials conducted between 1991 and 2006 to investigate the role of systemic chemotherapy for advanced non-small cell lung cancer. Associations were tested by multiple regression analysis.

RESULTS

Of the 1255 trials screened, 143 met our criteria, involving 50,569 patients with 309 chemotherapy regimens. In the first-line setting, the median intention-to-treat objective response rate (ORR) and disease control rate (DCR) were 26.4% and 62.5%, respectively (43,551 randomized patients; 290 trials). The median of the median survival time (MST) was 8.5 months in the first-line setting, and both the ORR and DCR were significantly associated with the MST in the multivariate analysis (regression coefficient = 0.0788 [p < 0.0001] and 0.0794 [p < 0.0001], respectively). Subgroup analysis showed no correlation between the ORR and MST in patients receiving chemotherapy containing molecular-targeted agents (p = 0.3817). In the second-line or later setting, the median ORR was only 6.8%, whereas the median DCR was 42.4% (4318 randomized patients; 19 trials). The median MST (6.6 months) was not associated with the ORR (p = 0.6992), but was associated with the DCR (p = 0.0129), despite the small sample size.

CONCLUSIONS

We found that survival was associated with both the ORR and DCR in the first-line setting, although it should be interpreted cautiously because of the abstracted data-based analysis. Regarding chemotherapy regimens containing molecular-targeted agents and salvage chemotherapy regimens, further assessments are warranted to clarify the association between the parameters.

The relationship between six-month progression-free survival and 12-month overall survival end points for phase II trials in patients with glioblastoma multiforme

Common end points for phase II trials in patients with glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) are six-month progression-free survival (PFS6) and 12-month overall survival (OS12). OS12 can be accurately measured but may be confounded with subsequent therapies upon progression, whereas the converse is true for PFS6. Our goal was to assess the relationship between these end points separately for phase II trials in patients with newly diagnosed GBM and patients with recurrent GBM. Data were pooled from 11 North Central Cancer Treatment Group trials for patients with newly diagnosed GBM (n = 1348). All patients received radiotherapy and pharmaceutical therapy (before, during, or after radiotherapy). Data were pooled from 16 trials that used various pharmaceuticals in treating patients for recurrent GBM (n = 345). All trial regimens were declared nonefficacious by predefined criteria. Overall per-patient concordance was estimated with a kappa statistic. The relationship between OS12 and PFS6 across study arms was assessed by weighted linear regression and Pearson's correlation. Simulation was used to determine the agreement of study outcomes when using PFS6 versus OS12 end points. Cox models with progression status as a time-dependent variable and Kaplan-Meier estimators were used to ascertain the association between progression-free survival status and overall survival. At present, 97% of the patients with newly diagnosed GBM and 95% of those with recurrent GBM have died. The PFS6 and OS12 were 43% and 41%, respectively, for patients with newly diagnosed disease and 9% and 14% for patients with recurrent disease. There was only moderate concordance between the end points on both the patient level and the study level. For the simulation studies, we established phase II efficacy criteria for each end point by using the pooled estimates of OS12 (PFS6) as historical controls. The study decisions made using PFS6 and OS12 were in agreement 88% and 90% of the time for the trials of newly diagnosed and recurrent disease, respectively. Finally, there was a strong association between progression-free survival status and overall survival. PFS6 seems to be a reasonable end point for phase II trials in patients with recurrent glioblastoma.

Positron emission tomography imaging in nonsmall-cell lung cancer

Positron emission tomography (PET) using 18F-2-deoxy-D-glucose, a D-glucose analog labeled with fluorine-18, complements conventional radiologic assessment in the evaluation of patients with nonsmall-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). PET is being routinely used to improve the detection of nodal and extrathoracic metastases. PET is also currently being evaluated in the assessment of prognosis and therapeutic response and by potentially allowing an earlier assessment of response may prove invaluable in the oncologic management of patients. The article discusses the diagnosis, staging, and assessment of treatment response and prognosis with an emphasis on the appropriate clinical use of PET in management.

Positron emission tomography in non-small-cell lung cancer: prediction of response to chemotherapy by quantitative assessment of glucose use

PURPOSE

To prospectively evaluate the use of positron emission tomography with the glucose analog fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG-PET) to predict response to chemotherapy in patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Patients with stage IIIB or IV NSCLC scheduled to undergo platinum-based chemotherapy were eligible for this study. Patients were studied by FDG-PET before and after the first cycle of therapy. Based on previous studies, a reduction of tumor FDG uptake by more than 20% as assessed by standardized uptake values (SUV) was used as a criterion for a metabolic response. Furthermore, changes in tumor SUVs were compared with changes in FDG net-influx constants (Ki) and tumor/muscle ratios (t/m).

RESULTS

Fifty-seven patients were included in the study. There was a close correlation between metabolic response and best response to therapy according to Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (P <.0001; sensitivity and specificity for prediction of best response, 95% and 74%, respectively). Median time to progression and overall survival were significantly longer for metabolic responders than for metabolic nonresponders (163 v 54 days and 252 days v 151 days, respectively). Similar results were obtained when Ki was used to assess tumor glucose use, whereas changes in t/m showed considerable overlap between responding and nonresponding tumors.

CONCLUSION

In NSCLC, reduction of metabolic activity after one cycle of chemotherapy is closely correlated with final outcome of therapy. Using metabolic response as an end point may shorten the duration of phase II studies evaluating new cytotoxic drugs and may decrease the morbidity and costs of therapy in nonresponding patients.

Clinical trial designs for targeted agents

With an increasing number of targeted agents available for testing, clinical trials must be rationally designed based on sound knowledge of the molecular mechanisms linking target and disease, fortified by strong preclinical data demonstrating how this relationship is modified by the targeted agent. Patients and resources are precious and should be expended judiciously on clinical trials that are well planned. Although traditional trial designs and endpoints may not be adequate for developing contemporary targeted drugs, transiting directly from phase I to phase III testing should be avoided except in distinct circumstances. Increased research efforts should be spent on the prospective evaluation and validation of novel biologic endpoints and innovative clinical designs, such that promising targeted agents can be effectively developed to benefit the care of cancer patients.

Application of a new multinomial phase II stopping rule using response and early progression

PURPOSE

A multinomial stopping rule had previously been developed that incorporated both objective response and early progression into decisions to stop or continue phase II trials of anticancer agents. The purpose of this study was to apply the multinomial rule to two independent sets of phase II data to assess its utility in appropriately recommending early trial closure as compared with other stopping rules.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data from completed phase II trials of the National Cancer Institute of Canada Clinical Trials Group (NCIC CTG) and European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Early Clinical Studies Group (ECSG) formed the basis of the study. Based on observed results for each trial, the recommendation of the multinomial stopping rule was applied, as was the recommendation of the actual stopping rule used (Fleming or Gehan). The appropriateness of the recommendations was evaluated based on interpretation of final study results.

RESULTS

The standard and multinomial rules disagreed on early stopping in one of 16 NCIC CTG trials and in seven of 23 ECSG trials. In all cases, the standard rule advised continuing to the second stage whereas the multinomial rule advised stopping early because of excessive numbers of patients experiencing early disease progression. Final trial results indicated that the multinomial recommendation was appropriate, because in no study did final results lead to conclusions of activity.

CONCLUSION

In this series of trials, the multinomial stopping rule performed more efficiently than the Fleming or Gehan rules in advising early stopping of trials. These results encourage continued exploration of this approach for phase II trials of cytotoxic and noncytotoxic anticancer agents.