Tracking the Cracking: A Holistic Analysis of Rapid Ice Shelf Fracture Using Seismology, Geodesy, and Satellite Imagery on the Pine Island Glacier Ice Shelf, West Antarctica

Ice shelves regulate the stability of marine ice sheets. We track fractures on Pine Island Glacier, a quickly accelerating glacier in West Antarctica that contributes more to sea level rise than any other glacier. Using an on-ice seismic network deployed from 2012 to 2014, we catalog icequakes that dominantly consist of flexural gravity waves. Icequakes occur near the rift tip and in two distinct areas of the shear margin, and TerraSAR-X imagery shows significant fracture in each source region. Rift-tip icequakes increase with ice speed, linking rift fracture to glaciological stresses and/or localized thinning. Using a simple flexural gravity wave model, we deconvolve wave propagation effects to estimate icequake source durations of 19.5-50.0 s and transient loads of 3.8-14.0 kPa corresponding to 4.3-15.9 m of crevasse growth per icequake. These long-source durations suggest that water flow may limit the rate of crevasse opening.

Physical processes controlling the rifting of Larsen C Ice Shelf, Antarctica, prior to the calving of iceberg A68

The stability of Antarctica and its contribution to sea-level rise are determined by the evolution of its ice shelves, which are vast expanses of floating ice that buttress the continent. Ice shelves have been undergoing major changes in recent decades, many of them collapsing. The presumption is that these events are caused by hydrofracturing and unusual wave forcing. We find that a main control on fracturing is the thickness of the ice mélange encased in and around preexisting rifts that penetrate the entire ice shelf thickness. If the ice mélange thins beyond a threshold value, the rifts reactivate and trigger iceberg calving. This process linking climate forcing and ice shelf retreat is missing from models and does not require hydrofracture.

The sudden propagation of a major preexisting rift (full-thickness crack) in late 2016 on the Larsen C Ice Shelf, Antarctica led to the calving of tabular iceberg A68 in July 2017, one of the largest icebergs on record, posing a threat for the stability of the remaining ice shelf. As with other ice shelves, the physical processes that led to the activation of the A68 rift and controlled its propagation have not been elucidated. Here, we model the response of the ice shelf stress balance to ice shelf thinning and thinning of the ice mélange encased in and around preexisting rifts. We find that ice shelf thinning does not reactivate the rifts, but heals them. In contrast, thinning of the mélange controls the opening rate of the rift, with an above-linear dependence on thinning. The simulations indicate that thinning of the ice mélange by 10 to 20 m is sufficient to reactivate the rifts and trigger a major calving event, thereby establishing a link between climate forcing and ice shelf retreat that has not been included in ice sheet models. Rift activation could initiate ice shelf retreat decades prior to hydrofracture caused by water ponding at the ice shelf surface.

A Generalized Interpolation Material Point Method for Shallow Ice Shelves. 2: Anisotropic Nonlocal Damage Mechanics and Rift Propagation

Ice shelf fracture is responsible for roughly half of Antarctic ice mass loss in the form of calving and can weaken buttressing of upstream ice flow. Large uncertainties associated with the ice sheet response to climate variations are due to a poor understanding of these fracture processes and how to model them. Here, we address these problems by implementing an anisotropic, nonlocal integral formulation of creep damage within a large-scale shallow-shelf ice flow model. This model can be used to study the full evolution of fracture from initiation of crevassing to rifting that eventually causes tabular calving. While previous ice shelf fracture models have largely relied on simple expressions to estimate crevasse depths, our model parameterizes fracture as a progressive damage evolution process in three-dimensions (3-D). We also implement an efficient numerical framework based on the material point method, which avoids advection errors. Using an idealized marine ice sheet, we test the creep damage model and a crevasse-depth based damage model, including a modified version of the latter that accounts for damage evolution due to necking and mass balance. We demonstrate that the creep damage model is best suited for capturing weakening and rifting over shorter (monthly/yearly) timescales, and that anisotropic damage reproduces typically observed fracture patterns better than isotropic damage. Because necking and mass balance can significantly influence damage on longer (decadal) timescales, we discuss the potential for a combined approach between models to best represent mechanical weakening and tabular calving within long-term simulations.

Robust long-range source localization in the deep ocean using phase-only matched autoproduct processing

Passive source localization in the deep ocean using array signal processing techniques is possible using an algorithm similar to matched field processing (MFP) that interrogates a measured frequency-difference autoproduct instead of a measured pressure field [Geroski and Dowling, J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 146, 4727-4739 (2019)]. These results are extended herein to a new MFP-style algorithm, phase-only matched autoproduct processing, that is more robust at source-array ranges as large as 225 km. This new algorithm is herein described and compared to three existing approaches. The performance of all four techniques is evaluated using measured ocean propagation data from the PhilSea10 experiment. These data nominally span a 12-month period; include six source-array ranges from 129 to 450 km; and involve signals with center frequencies between 172.5 and 275 Hz, and bandwidths of 60 to 100 Hz. In all cases, weight vectors are calculated assuming a range-independent environment using a single sound-speed profile measured near the receiving array. The frequency-differencing techniques considered here are capable of localizing all six sources, with varying levels of consistency, using single-digit-Hz difference frequencies. At source-array ranges up to and including 225 km, the new algorithm requires fewer signal samples for success and is more robust to the choice of difference frequencies.

Evolving Instability of the Scar Inlet Ice Shelf based on Sequential Landsat Images Spanning 2005–2018

Following the large-scale disintegration of the Larsen B Ice Shelf (LBIS) in 2002, ice flow velocities for its remnants and tributary glaciers began to increase. In this study, we used sequential Landsat images spanning 2005–2018 to produce detailed maps of the ice flow velocities and surface features for the Scar Inlet Ice Shelf (SIIS). Our results indicate that the ice flow velocities for the SIIS and its tributary glaciers (Flask and Leppard Glaciers) have substantially increased since 2005. Surface features, such as rifts and crevasses, have also substantially increased in both scope and scale and are particularly evident in the region between the Leppard Glacier and the Jason Peninsula. Several indicators—including the acceleration of ice flows, the rapid growth of major surface rifts, the heavily enhanced surface crevasses, and the dynamic position of the ice front—point to the evolving instability of the SIIS. These same indicators describe the conditions for the LBIS leading up to its 2002 collapse. To date, however, the SIIS remains intact. The formation of fast ice supporting the ice shelf front, combined with moderate mean summer temperatures, may be preventing or delaying its collapse.

Distributed sensing of microseisms and teleseisms with submarine dark fibers

Sparse seismic instrumentation in the oceans limits our understanding of deep Earth dynamics and submarine earthquakes. Distributed acoustic sensing (DAS), an emerging technology that converts optical fiber to seismic sensors, allows us to leverage pre-existing submarine telecommunication cables for seismic monitoring. Here we report observations of microseism, local surface gravity waves, and a teleseismic earthquake along a 4192-sensor ocean-bottom DAS array offshore Belgium. We observe in-situ how opposing groups of ocean surface gravity waves generate double-frequency seismic Scholte waves, as described by the Longuet-Higgins theory of microseism generation. We also extract P- and S-wave phases from the 2018-08-19 [Formula: see text] Fiji deep earthquake in the 0.01-1 Hz frequency band, though waveform fidelity is low at high frequencies. These results suggest significant potential of DAS in next-generation submarine seismic networks.

Infrasound monitoring in non-traditional environments

To date, the infrasound community has avoided deployments in noisy urban sites because interests have been in monitoring distant sources with low noise sites. As monitoring interests expand to include low-energy urban sources only detectable close to the source, case studies are needed to demonstrate the challenges and benefits of urban infrasound monitoring. This case study highlights one approach to overcoming urban challenges and identifies a signal's source in a complex acoustic field. One 38 m and one 120 m aperture infrasound arrays were deployed on building rooftops north of downtown Dallas, Texas. Structural signals in the recorded data were identified, and the backazimuth to the source determined with frequency-wavenumber analysis. Fourteen days of data were analyzed to produce 314 coherent continuous-wave packets, with 246 of these detections associated with a narrow range of backazimuth directions. Analyzing the backazimuths from the two arrays identified the Mockingbird Bridge as the probable source which was the verified with seismic measurement on the structure. Techniques described here overcame the constraints imposed by urban environments and provide a basis to monitor infrastructure and its conditions at local distances (0-100 km).

Marine ice regulates the future stability of a large Antarctic ice shelf

The collapses of the Larsen A and B ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula in 1995 and 2002 confirm the impact of southward-propagating climate warming in this region. Recent mass and dynamic changes of Larsen B’s southern neighbour Larsen C, the fourth largest ice shelf in Antarctica, may herald a similar instability. Here, using a validated ice-shelf model run in diagnostic mode, constrained by satellite and in situ geophysical data, we identify the nature of this potential instability. We demonstrate that the present-day spatial distribution and orientation of the principal stresses within Larsen C ice shelf are akin to those within pre-collapse Larsen B. When Larsen B’s stabilizing frontal portion was lost in 1995, the unstable remaining shelf accelerated, crumbled and ultimately collapsed. We hypothesize that Larsen C ice shelf may suffer a similar fate if it were not stabilized by warm and mechanically soft marine ice, entrained within narrow suture zones.

Signs of instability in the Antarctic Larsen C ice shelf have raised concerns that it might soon collapse like its northern neighbour Larsen B. Kulessa et al. combine an ice-shelf model with satellite and geophysical data to show that despite dynamic similarities, Larsen C is presently stabilized by marine ice.

Upper and lower limits on the stability of calving glaciers from the yield strength envelope of ice

Observations indicate that substantial changes in the dynamics of marine-terminating ice sheets and glaciers are tightly coupled to calving-induced changes in the terminus position. However, the calving process itself remains poorly understood and is not well parametrized in current numerical ice sheet models. In this study, we address this uncertainty by deriving plausible upper and lower limits for the maximum stable ice thickness at the calving face of marine-terminating glaciers, using two complementary models. The first model assumes that a combination of tensile and shear failure can render the ice cliff near the terminus unstable and/or enable pre-existing crevasses to intersect. A direct consequence of this model is that thick glaciers must terminate in deep water to stabilize the calving front, yielding a predicted maximum ice cliff height that increases with increasing water depth, consistent with observations culled from glaciers in West Greenland, Antarctica, Svalbard and Alaska. The second model considers an analogous lower limit derived by assuming that the ice is already fractured and fractures are lubricated by pore pressure. In this model, a floating ice tongue can only form when the ice entering the terminus region is relatively intact with few pre-existing, deeply penetrating crevasses.