Transport of Nitric Oxide Via Lagrangian Coherent Structures Into the Top of the Polar Vortex

The energetic particle precipitation (EPP) indirect effect (IE) refers to the downward transport of reactive odd nitrogen (NOx = NO + NO2) produced by EPP (EPP-NOx) from the polar winter mesosphere and lower thermosphere to the stratosphere where it can destroy ozone. Previous studies of the EPP IE examined NOx descent averaged over the polar region, but the work presented here considers longitudinal variations. We report that the January 2009 split Arctic vortex in the stratosphere left an imprint on the distribution of NO near the mesopause, and that the magnitude of EPP-NOx descent in the upper mesosphere depends strongly on the planetary wave (PW) phase. We focus on an 11-day case study in late January immediately following the 2009 sudden stratospheric warming during which regional-scale Lagrangian coherent structures (LCSs) formed atop the strengthening mesospheric vortex. The LCSs emerged over the north Atlantic in the vicinity of the trough of a 10-day westward traveling planetary wave. Over the next week, the LCSs acted to confine NO-rich air to polar latitudes, effectively prolonging its lifetime as it descended into the top of the polar vortex. Both a whole atmosphere data assimilation model and satellite observations show that the PW trough remained coincident in space and time with the NO-rich air as both migrated westward over the Canadian Arctic. Estimates of descent rates indicate five times stronger descent inside the PW trough compared to other longitudes. This case serves to set the stage for future climatological analysis of NO transport via LCSs.

Comparison of Major Sudden Stratospheric Warming Impacts on the Mid-Latitude Mesosphere Based on Local Microwave Radiometer CO Observations in 2018 and 2019

In this paper, a comparison of the impact of major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) in the Arctic in February 2018 (SSW1) and January 2019 (SSW2) on the mid-latitude mesosphere is given. The mesospheric carbon monoxide (CO) and zonal wind in these two major SSW events were observed at altitudes of 70–85 km using a microwave radiometer (MWR) at Kharkiv, Ukraine (50.0°N, 36.3°E). Data from ERA-Interim and MERRA-2 reanalyses and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder measurements were also used. It is shown that: (i) The differences between SSW1 and SSW2, in terms of local variability in zonal wind, temperature, and CO in the stratosphere and mesosphere, were clearly defined by the polar vortex (westerly in cyclonic circulation) and mid-latitude anticyclone (easterly) migrating over the MWR station, therefore; (ii) mesospheric intrusions of CO-rich air into the stratosphere over the Kharkiv region occurred only occasionally, (iii) the larger zonal wave 1–3 amplitudes before SSW1 were followed by weaker polar vortex recovery than that after SSW2, (iv) the strong vortex recovery after SSW2 was supported by earlier event timing (midwinter) favoring vortex cooling due to low solar irradiance and enhanced zonal circulation, and (v) vortex strengthening after SSW2 was accompanied by wave 1–3 amplification in March 2019, which was absent after SSW1. Finally, the influence of the large-scale circulation structures formed in individual major SSW events on the locally recorded characteristics of the atmosphere is discussed.

Forecasting extreme stratospheric polar vortex events

Extreme polar vortex events known as sudden stratospheric warmings can influence surface winter weather conditions, but their timing is difficult to predict. Here, we examine factors that influence their occurrence, with a focus on their timing and vertical extent. We consider the roles of the troposphere and equatorial stratosphere separately, using a split vortex event in January 2009 as the primary case study. This event cannot be reproduced by constraining wind and temperatures in the troposphere alone, even when the equatorial lower stratosphere is in the correct phase of the quasi biennial oscillation. When the flow in the equatorial upper stratosphere is also constrained, the timing and spatial evolution of the vortex event is captured remarkably well. This highlights an influence from this region previously unrecognised by the seasonal forecast community. We suggest that better representation of the flow in this region is likely to improve predictability of extreme polar vortex events and hence their associated impacts at the surface.

Extreme events high up in the winter stratosphere are known to influence our weather and their predictability has potential to improve seasonal weather forecasts. Here, the authors examine factors that influence their generation and highlight a previously unrecognised sensitivity to the upper equatorial stratosphere.

Lidar Observations of Stratospheric Gravity Waves From 2011 to 2015 at McMurdo (77.84°S, 166.69°E), Antarctica: 2. Potential Energy Densities, Lognormal Distributions, and Seasonal Variations

Five years of Fe Boltzmann lidar's Rayleigh temperature data from 2011 to 2015 at McMurdo are used to characterize gravity wave potential energy mass density (E pm), potential energy volume density (E pv), vertical wave number spectra, and static stability N 2 in the stratosphere 30-50 km. E pm (E pv) profiles increase (decrease) with altitude, and the scale heights of E pv indicate stronger wave dissipation in winter than in summer. Altitude meanE ¯ pm andE ¯ pv obey lognormal distributions and possess narrowly clustered small values in summer but widely spread large values in winter.E ¯ pm andE ¯ pv vary significantly from observation to observation but exhibit repeated seasonal patterns with summer minima and winter maxima. The winter maxima in 2012 and 2015 are higher than in other years, indicating interannual variations. Altitude meanN 2 ¯ varies by ~30-40% from the midwinter maxima to minima around October and exhibits a nearly bimodal distribution. Monthly mean vertical wave number power spectral density for vertical wavelengths of 5-20 km increases from summer to winter. Using Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 2 data, we find that large values ofE ¯ pm during wintertime occur when McMurdo is well inside the polar vortex. Monthly meanE ¯ pm are anticorrelated with wind rotation angles but positively correlated with wind speeds at 3 and 30 km. Corresponding correlation coefficients are -0.62, +0.87, and +0.80, respectively. Results indicate that the summer-winter asymmetry ofE ¯ pm is mainly caused by critical level filtering that dissipates most gravity waves in summer.E ¯ pm variations in winter are mainly due to variations of gravity wave generation in the troposphere and stratosphere and Doppler shifting by the mean stratospheric winds.