The effect of cross-regional transport on ozone and particulate matter pollution in China: A review of methodology and current knowledge

China is currently one of the countries impacted by severe atmospheric ozone (O3) and particulate matter (PM) pollution. Due to their moderately long lifetimes, O3 and PM can be transported over long distances, cross the boundaries of source regions and contribute to air pollution in other regions. The reported contributions of cross-regional transport (CRT) to O3 and fine PM (PM2.5) concentrations often exceed those of local emissions in the major regions of China, highlighting the important role of CRT in regional air pollution. Therefore, further improvement of air quality in China requires more joint efforts among regions to ensure a proper reduction in emissions while accounting for the influence of CRT. This review summarizes the methodologies employed to assess the influence of CRT on O3 and PM pollution as well as current knowledge of CRT influence in China. Quantifying CRT contributions in proportion to O3 and PM levels and studying detailed CRT processes of O3, PM and precursors can be both based on targeted observations and/or model simulations. Reported publications indicate that CRT contributes by 40-80 % to O3 and by 10-70 % to PM2.5 in various regions of China. These contributions exhibit notable spatiotemporal variations, with differences in meteorological conditions and/or emissions often serving as main drivers of such variations. Based on trajectory-based methods, transport pathways contributing to O3 and PM pollution in major regions of China have been revealed. Recent studies also highlighted the important role of horizontal transport in the middle/high atmospheric boundary layer or low free troposphere, of vertical exchange and mixing as well as of interactions between CRT, local meteorology and chemistry in the detailed CRT processes. Drawing on the current knowledge on the influence of CRT, this paper provides recommendations for future studies that aim at supporting ongoing air pollution mitigation strategies in China.

Spatiotemporal characterization of PM2.5, O3, and trace gases associated with East Asian continental outflows via drone sounding

East Asian continental outflows with PM2.5, O3, and other species may determine the baseline conditions and affect the air quality in downwind areas via long-range transport (LRT). To gain insight into the impact and spatiotemporal characteristics of airborne pollutants in East Asian continental outflows, a versatile multicopter drone sounding platform was used to simultaneously observe PM2.5, O3, CO2, and meteorological variables (temperature, specific humidity, pressure, and wind vector) above the northern tip of Taiwan, Cape Fuiguei, which often encounters continental outflows during winter monsoon periods. By coordinating hourly high-spatial-resolution profiles provided by drone soundings, WRF/CMAQ model air quality predictions, HYSPLIT-simulated backward trajectories, and MERRA-2 reanalysis data, we analyzed two prominent phenomena of airborne pollutants in continental outflows to better understand their physical/chemical characteristics. First, we found that pollutants were well mixed within a sounding height of 500 m when continental outflows passed through and completely enveloped Cape Fuiguei. Eddies induced by significant fluctuations in wind speeds coupled with minimal temperature inversion and LRT facilitated vertical mixing, possibly resulting in high homogeneity of pollutants within the outflow layer. Second, the drone soundings indicated exceptionally high O3 concentrations (70-100 ppbv) but relatively low concentrations of PM2.5 (10-20 μg/m3), CO2 (420-425 ppmv), and VOCs in some air masses. The low levels of PM2.5, CO2, and VOCs ruled out photochemistry as the cause of the formation of high-level O3. Further coordination of spatiotemporal data with air mass trajectories and O3 cross sections provided by MERRA-2 suggested that the high O3 concentrations could be attributed to stratospheric intrusion and advection via continental outflows. High-level O3 concentrations persisted in the lower troposphere, even reaching the surface, suggesting that stratospheric intrusion O3 may be involved in the rising trend in O3 concentrations in parts of East Asia in recent years in addition to surface photochemical factors.

Transpacific Transport of Asian Peroxyacetyl Nitrate (PAN) Observed from Satellite: Implications for Ozone

Peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) is produced in the atmosphere by photochemical oxidation of non-methane volatile organic compounds in the presence of nitrogen oxides (NOx), and it can be transported over long distances at cold temperatures before decomposing thermally to release NOx in the remote troposphere. It is both a tracer and a precursor for transpacific ozone pollution transported from East Asia to North America. Here, we directly demonstrate this transport with PAN satellite observations from the infrared atmospheric sounding interferometer (IASI). We reprocess the IASI PAN retrievals by replacing the constant prior vertical profile with vertical shape factors from the GEOS-Chem model that capture the contrasting shapes observed from aircraft over South Korea (KORUS-AQ) and the North Pacific (ATom). The reprocessed IASI PAN observations show maximum transpacific transport of East Asian pollution in spring, with events over the Northeast Pacific offshore from the Western US associated in GEOS-Chem with elevated ozone in the lower free troposphere. However, these events increase surface ozone in the US by less than 1 ppbv because the East Asian pollution mainly remains offshore as it circulates the Pacific High.

Distinct seasonality in vertical variations of tropospheric ozone over coastal regions of southern China

The surface ozone pollution is strongly coupled with ozone variations above the ground. Using sufficient airborne ozone profiles during 2012-2018, this study reveals the tropospheric ozone distributions over four cities located in coastal regions of southern China. The 7-year mean tropospheric ozone profiles in the four cities consistently show a double-maxima profile, with a local maximum at 1 km altitude and the other in the middle-to-upper troposphere. Seasonally, springtime ozone is larger than the annual mean throughout the troposphere, while ozone in summer is high in the middle-to-upper troposphere, leading to largest vertical variations among seasons. Ozone in the middle-to-upper troposphere is lower in autumn than in spring and summer. The winter ozone is characterized with a minimum in the lower troposphere, and low values in the middle-to-upper troposphere, leading to least vertical variations among seasons. We untangle the causes for these complicated vertical ozone variations using the GEOS-Chem model. The tropospheric ozone over southern China is partitioned into locally produced ozone, regionally transported native ozone, imported ozone from outside of China (foreign ozone) and natural stratospheric ozone. The results suggest that the springtime ozone abundance is due to the enhanced import of foreign and stratospheric ozone and the intensified regional transport processes of native ozone. In summer, local ozone production is enhanced and regional transport of ozone in the middle-to-upper troposphere is strengthened due to upward air motions, while such transport becomes weaker in autumn leaving low ozone in the middle-to-upper troposphere. In winter, the intensive westerly jets promote foreign and stratospheric ozone again in the middle-to-upper troposphere, but the local ozone production and regional transport are sharply reduced, resulting in low ozone near the surface. This study provides new insights into regional ozone profiles and reveals the significance of vertical ozone variations on surface ozone prevention strategy.

Modeling study on the roles of the deposition and transport of PM2.5 in air quality changes over central-eastern China

The role of PM_2.5 (particles with aerodynamic diameters ≤ 2.5 µm) deposition in air quality changes over China remains unclear. By using the three-year (2013, 2015, and 2017) simulation results of the WRF/CUACE v1.0 model from a previous work (Zhang et al., 2021), a non-linear relationship between the deposition of PM_2.5 and anthropogenic emissions over central-eastern China in cold seasons as well as in different life stages of haze events was unraveled. PM_2.5 deposition is spatially distributed differently from PM_2.5 concentrations and anthropogenic emissions over China. The North China Plain (NCP) is typically characterized by higher anthropogenic emissions compared to southern China, such as the middle-low reaches of Yangtze River (MLYR), which includes parts of the Yangtze River Delta and the Midwest. However, PM_2.5 deposition in the NCP is significantly lower than that in the MLYR region, suggesting that in addition to meteorology and emissions, lower deposition is another important factor in the increase in haze levels. Regional transport of pollution in central-eastern China acts as a moderator of pollution levels in different regions, for example by bringing pollution from the NCP to the MLYR region in cold seasons. It was found that in typical haze events the deposition flux of PM_2.5 during the removal stages is substantially higher than that in accumulation stages, with most of the PM_2.5 being transported southward and deposited to the MLYR and Sichuan Basin region, corresponding to a latitude range of about 24°N-31°N.

A study of the vertical homogeneity of trace gases in East Asian continental outflow

East Asian continental outflows containing with pollutants may deteriorate air quality in the downwind region via long-range transport (LRT). In particular, cold fronts with high wind speeds generally promote the LRT of air pollutants to further downwind areas, including Taiwan. To gain an insightful understanding of the characteristics and vertical homogeneity of trace gases in East Asian continental outflows, as well as their relation with atmospheric meteorological conditions, whole air samples were collected above a cape at the northern tip of the island of Taiwan during frontal passages. Aerial samples were collected at multiple altitudes from the surface to a maximum height of 700 m with a multicopter sounding platform carrying a robotic whole air sampling device. Simultaneously, aerial meteorological variables of temperature and wind vector from near the surface to a maximum height of 1000 m were also measured during the whole air sampling periods. An array of 106 volatile organic compounds (VOCs) as well as CO, CO₂, and CH₄ were analyzed to characterize the air composition and vertical homogeneity of trace gases. The results revealed rather homogeneous vertical distributions of most VOCs, CO, CO₂, and CH₄ in the frontal passages, indicating well-mixed conditions of trace gases in the East Asian continental outflows. The strong wind shear and minimal temperature inversion associated with the frontal passage likely induced turbulence and increased vertical mixing. Furthermore, higher levels of species characteristic of the East Asian continent were observed from the surface up to hundreds of meters above the cape, revealing a strong inflow of polluted air masses from the East Asian continent brought by cold frontal passages.

Transboundary aerosol transport process and its impact on aerosol-radiation-cloud feedbacks in springtime over Northeast Asia

Northeast Asia has been suffering from dramatic increases of particulate matter (PM) since the late 1990s, and it still continues to undergo haze despite various abating regulations. In this study, we investigated aerosol-cloud-precipitation (ACP) interactions with the varied PM, and the impact of long-range transport (LRT) process on ACP in springtime was assessed in Northeast Asia. Our long-term (1995–2019) analysis of PM₁₀ exhibited the correlation with decreases of both sunshine duration and drizzle occurrences that can be interpreted as direct and indirect aerosol effects, while cloud cover induced by the varied PM₁₀ was found only in more than 90% cloud cover (9/10–10/10 category). The online WRF-Chem with wind-blown dust simulation indicated that cloud water was affected by secondary inorganic aerosol (SIA) formation near the surface in upwind areas dominantly, whereas, along the LRT pathway, cloud water perturbation altitudes were increased quasi-linearly toward downward between 1 and 3 km. The gas-to-particle conversion ratios of sulfur ([SO₄²⁻]/[SO₂ + SO₄²⁻]) and nitrogen ([NO₃⁻]/[NO₂ + NO₃⁻]) both remain aloft long at the same vertical levels of most perturbed cloud altitude enough to be transported over long distance in springtime. Formations of sulfate and nitrate showed different ACP interaction timing; distinctive shifts in the ratios observed at the exit (Shanghai-Yellow Sea) by nitrate, and entrance areas (Seoul-Tokyo) by sulfate along the LRT pathway, respectively, with higher ratios of 0.8 or more in springtime. Our results indicate that ACP processes have been enhanced at a LRT-related altitude with different SIA production timings that can be considered in species-specific springtime PM abatements over Northeast Asia.

Predicting carbonaceous aerosols and identifying their source contribution with advanced approaches

Organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) play important roles in various atmospheric processes and health effects. Predicting carbonaceous aerosols and identifying source contributions are important steps for further epidemiological study and formulating effective emission control policies. However, we are not aware of any study that examined predictions of OC and EC, and this work is also the first study that attempted to use machine learning and hyperparameter optimization method to predict concentrations of specific aerosol contaminants. This paper describes an investigation of the characteristics and sources of OC and EC in fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) from 2005 to 2010 in the City of Taipei. Respective hourly average concentrations of OC and EC were 5.2 μg/m³ and 1.6 μg/m³. We observed obvious seasonal variation in OC but not in EC. Hourly and daily OC and EC concentrations were predicted using generalized additive model and grey wolf optimized multilayer perceptron model, which could explain up to about 80% of the total variation. Subsequent clustering suggests that traffic emission was the major contribution to OC, accounting for about 80% in the spring, 65% in the summer, and 90% in the fall and winter. In the Taipei area, local emissions were the dominant sources of OC and EC in all seasons, and long-range transport had a significant contribution to OC and in PM_2.5 in spring.

Secondary aerosol formation and its linkage with synoptic conditions during winter haze pollution over eastern China

Eastern China has been facing severe winter haze pollution due mainly to secondary aerosol. Existing studies have suggested that stagnant weather or fast chemical production led to frequent haze in this region. However, few works focus on the linkage between secondary production of sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium (SNA) and synoptic conditions, and their joint contribution to PM_2.5. In this study, by combining in-situ measurements on meteorology and aerosol chemical composition at three main cities together with a regional model with improved diagnose scheme, we investigated the chemical formation and accumulation of main secondary composition, i.e. SNA under typical synoptic conditions. It is indicated that SNA did play a vital role in haze pollution across eastern China, contributing more than 40% to PM_2.5 mass concentration. As most fast developing region, the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) was slightly polluted during stable weather with local chemical production accounting for 61% SNA pollution. While under the influence of cold front, the pollution was aggravated and advection transport became the predominant contributive process (85%). Nevertheless, the chemical production of SNA was notably enhanced due to the uplift of air pollutant and elevated humidity ahead of the cold front, which then facilitated the heterogeneous and aqueous-phase oxidation of precursors. We also found the substantial difference in the phase equilibrium of nitrate over the land surface and ocean due to changes in temperature, ammonia availability and dry deposition. This study highlights the close link between synoptic weather and chemical production, and the resultant vertical and spatial heterogeneity of pollution.

A Multiscale Tiered Approach to Quantify Contributions: A Case Study of PM2.5 in South Korea During 2010–2017

We estimated long-term foreign contributions to the particulate matter of 2.5 μm or less in diameter (PM2.5) concentrations in South Korea with a set of air quality simulations. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE)-Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system was used to simulate the base and sensitivity case after a 50% reduction of foreign emissions. The effects of horizontal modeling grid resolutions (27- and 9-km) was also investigated. For this study, we chose PM2.5 in South Korea during 2010–2017 for the case study and emissions from China as a representative foreign source. The 9-km simulation results show that the 8-year average contribution of the Chinese emissions in 17 provinces ranged from 40–65%, which is ~4% lower than that from the 27-km simulation for the high-tier government segments (particularly prominent in coastal areas). However, for the same comparison for low-tier government segments (i.e., 250 prefectures), the 9-km simulation presented lowered the foreign contribution by up to 10% compared to that from the 27-km simulation. Based on our study results, we recommend using high-resolution modeling results for regional contribution analyses to develop an air quality action plan as the receptor coverage decreases.

Modeling primary and secondary fractionation effects and atmospheric transport of polychlorinated biphenyls through single-source emissions

The Chinese Gridded Industrial Pollutants Emission and Residue Model (ChnGIPERM) was used to investigate potential fractionation effects and atmospheric transport of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) derived from single-source emissions in China. Modeling the indicative PCBs (CB28, CB101, CB153, and CB180) revealed spatiotemporal trends in atmospheric transport, gas/particle partitioning, and primary and secondary fractionation effects. These included the inference that the Westerlies and East Asian monsoons affect atmospheric transport patterns of PCBs by influencing the atmospheric transport time (ATT). In this study, dispersion pathways with long ATTs in winter tended to have short ones in summer and vice versa. The modeled partitioning of PCB congeners between gas and particles was mainly controlled by temperature, which can further influence the ATT. The potential for primary and secondary fractionation was explored by means of numerical simulations with single-source emissions. Within ChnGIPERM, these phenomena were mainly controlled by the temperature and soil organic carbon content. The secondary fractionation of PCBs is a slow process, with model results suggesting a timescale of several decades.

Distribution of CO2 in Western Pacific, Studied Using Isotope Data Made in Taiwan, OCO-2 Satellite Retrievals, and CarbonTracker Products

To assess sources and processes that affect the variability of CO2 at local to regional scales, we have analyzed the mixing ratio [CO2] and stable isotopic compositions (δ13C and δ18O) of atmospheric CO2 for three years (2014-2016) in urban and sub-urban areas in Taipei, Taiwan. The data are compared with those from some background sites, viz., Lulin, Mauna Loa, and Minamitorishima, to evaluate how local emissions affect CO2 level regionally. [CO2] over the urban and sub-urban stations are significantly higher than that observed at the three aforementioned remote sites mainly due to local emissions, which partly mask the seasonal cycle caused by photosynthesis and respiration. Likewise, significantly low δ13C and δ18O values observed at two Taipei stations also point to anthropogenic emissions. The seasonal cycles in [CO2] and in the isotopic compositions are retrieved using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition method. Regional impact is assessed using CO2 products from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 satellite, the NOAA/EARL CarbonTracker project, and meteorological data from European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecast-Interim. We found that besides local emissions, Taiwan is largely affected by external CO2 in winter and spring originated from north, west and southwest landmasses. In winter air masses with elevated CO2 concentrations, originated in eastern China influence Taipei. In spring season, about 2 ppmv enhancement in CO2 observed at the top of Lulin, a high mountain station (2.8 km), could be linked to CO2 produced by biomass burning in the southeast Asian countries and transported to the region by easterly winds.

Long-term (2005-2015) trend analysis of PM2.5 precursor gas NO2 and SO2 concentrations in Taiwan

Ground air monitoring stations have been installed in Taiwan since 1993 to ensure whether the criteria air pollutants meet the ambient air quality standards. In the present study, the data from the monitoring stations were used to evaluate long-term (2005-2015) trend of NO₂ and SO₂ in three metropolitan cities (northern Taipei, central Taichung, and southern Kaohsiung), two eastern coastal cities (Hualien and Taitung), and one agricultural city in west-central plain (Douliu); those cities essentially covered the entire region of Taiwan. The results indicate that SO₂ and NO₂ concentrations of all studied six cities meet the annual average standards of 30 and 50 ppb, respectively. After deseasonalizing the original data and using 7-month moving average, the trend analysis reveals a decreasing trend ranging from 0.15 to 0.57 ppb/year (R² from 0.33 to 0.85) for NO₂ and 0.06 to 0.45 ppb/year (R² from 0.32 to 0.92) for SO₂; the corresponding reductions over the 10-year span are 4 to 42% for NO₂ and 22 to 52% for SO₂. The reduction trend, despite the growth in GDP, vehicle numbers and energy consumption, industrial output, etc., is similar to those of developed countries. Clearly, there are seasonal/monthly variation patterns for these two precursor gases with minimum levels in summer (July) and maximum in winter (December). The concentration reductions, however, were lagging behind the respective emission reductions. There are significant correlations among six cites for NO₂ (r = 0.58-0.93) and, to some extent, SO₂ (0.32-0.66). The correlation between SO₂ and NO₂ (r = 0.46-0.74) indicates same or similar emission sources. Furthermore, the correlation between observed pollutant concentrations and their emission is excellent for SO₂ in two cities (0.79-0.96). The SO₂/NO₂ ratios vary with city and time and the value is site specific. For example, in 2005, the SO₂/NO₂ ratio was 0.38 in Kaohsiung and 0.18 in both Taipei and Taichung, the latter reflecting significant contribution from mobile sources. However, they all converged to 0.18-0.28 in 2015 in the six cities evaluated. All in all, the policies/measures made by the central and local government are effective in reducing ambient SO₂ and NO₂ levels.

The effects of transboundary air pollution following major events in China on air quality in the U.S.: Evidence from Chinese New Year and sandstorms

Transboundary air pollution is a global environmental and public health problem including in the U.S., where pollution emissions from China, the largest emitter of anthropogenic air pollution in the world, can travel across the Pacific Ocean and reach places like California and Oregon. We examine the effects of transboundary air pollution following major events in China, specifically sandstorms, a natural-occurring source of air pollution, and Chinese New Year, a major 7-day holiday, on background air quality in the U.S. We focus on high elevation sites on the west coast between 2000 and 2013. We use regression analysis and a natural experiment to exploit the variation in the timing of these events in China, which are plausibly uncorrelated to other factors that affect air quality in China and the U.S. We find that sandstorms are associated with statistically significant increases in background coarse and fine particulate matter (PM) in the U.S., representing between 16 and 39% of average weekly PM levels. We also find Chinese New Year is associated with modest reductions in background air quality in the U.S., representing between 0.4 and 2.5% of PM levels. Findings are robust to different models and falsification tests. These results suggest that regression analysis could be a powerful tool to complement other, more widely used techniques in the environmental sciences that study this problem. This also has important implications for policymakers, who could track major sandstorms in China and prepare for possible increased foreign pollution emissions in the U.S.

Air-sea exchange and gas-particle partitioning of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons over the northwestern Pacific Ocean: Role of East Asian continental outflow

We measured 15 parent polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in atmosphere and water during a research cruise from the East China Sea (ECS) to the northwestern Pacific Ocean (NWP) in the spring of 2015 to investigate the occurrence, air-sea gas exchange, and gas-particle partitioning of PAHs with a particular focus on the influence of East Asian continental outflow. The gaseous PAH composition and identification of sources were consistent with PAHs from the upwind area, indicating that the gaseous PAHs (three-to five-ring PAHs) were influenced by upwind land pollution. In addition, air-sea exchange fluxes of gaseous PAHs were estimated to be -54.2-107.4 ng m^-2 d^-1, and was indicative of variations of land-based PAH inputs. The logarithmic gas-particle partition coefficient (logK_p) of PAHs regressed linearly against the logarithmic subcooled liquid vapor pressure (logP_L⁰), with a slope of -0.25. This was significantly larger than the theoretical value (-1), implying disequilibrium between the gaseous and particulate PAHs over the NWP. The non-equilibrium of PAH gas-particle partitioning was shielded from the volatilization of three-ring gaseous PAHs from seawater and lower soot concentrations in particular when the oceanic air masses prevailed. Modeling PAH absorption into organic matter and adsorption onto soot carbon revealed that the status of PAH gas-particle partitioning deviated more from the modeling K_p for oceanic air masses than those for continental air masses, which coincided with higher volatilization of three-ring PAHs and confirmed the influence of air-sea exchange. Meanwhile, significant linear regressions between logK_p and logK_oa (logK_sa) for PAHs were observed for continental air masses, suggesting the dominant effect of East Asian continental outflow on atmospheric PAHs over the NWP during the sampling campaign.

A potential large and persistent black carbon forcing over Northern Pacific inferred from satellite observations

Black carbon (BC) aerosol strongly absorbs solar radiation, which warms climate. However, accurate estimation of BC's climate effect is limited by the uncertainties of its spatiotemporal distribution, especially over remote oceanic areas. The HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observation (HIPPO) program from 2009 to 2011 intercepted multiple snapshots of BC profiles over Pacific in various seasons, and revealed a 2 to 5 times overestimate of BC by current global models. In this study, we compared the measurements from aircraft campaigns and satellites, and found a robust association between BC concentrations and satellite-retrieved CO, tropospheric NO2, and aerosol optical depth (AOD) (R2 > 0.8). This establishes a basis to construct a satellite-based column BC approximation (sBC*) over remote oceans. The inferred sBC* shows that Asian outflows in spring bring much more BC aerosols to the mid-Pacific than those occurring in other seasons. In addition, inter-annual variability of sBC* is seen over the Northern Pacific, with abundances varying consistently with the springtime Pacific/North American (PNA) index. Our sBC* dataset infers a widespread overestimation of BC loadings and BC Direct Radiative Forcing by current models over North Pacific, which further suggests that large uncertainties exist on aerosol-climate interactions over other remote oceanic areas beyond Pacific.

Influence of fossil-fuel power plant emissions on the surface fine particulate matter in the Seoul Capital Area, South Korea

The South Korean government plans to reduce region-wide annual PM2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5 μm) concentrations in the Seoul Capital Area (SCA) from 2010 levels of 27 µg/m(3) to 20 µg/m(3) by 2024. At the same time, it is inevitable that emissions from fossil-fuel power plants will continue to increase if electricity generation expands and the generation portfolio remains the same in the future. To estimate incremental PM2.5 contributions due to projected electricity generation growth in South Korea, we utilized an ensemble forecasting member of the Integrated Multidimensional Air Quality System for Korea based on the Community Multi-scale Air Quality model. We performed sensitivity runs with across-the-board emission reductions for all fossil-fuel power plants in South Korea to estimate the contribution of PM2.5 from domestic fossil-fuel power plants. We estimated that fossil-fuel power plants are responsible for 2.4% of the annual PM2.5 national ambient air quality standard in the SCA as of 2010. Based on the electricity generation and the annual contribution of fossil-fuel power plants in 2010, we estimated that annual PM2.5 concentrations may increase by 0.2 µg/m(3) per 100 TWhr due to additional electricity generation. With currently available information on future electricity demands, we estimated that the total future contribution of fossil-fuel power plants would be 0.87 µg/m(3), which is 12.4% of the target reduction amount of the annual PM2.5 concentration by 2024. We also approximated that the number of premature deaths caused by existing fossil-fuel power plants would be 736 in 2024. Since the proximity of power plants to the SCA and the types of fuel used significantly impact this estimation, further studies are warranted on the impact of physical parameters of plants, such as location and stack height, on PM2.5 concentrations in the SCA due to each precursor.

IMPLICATIONS

Improving air quality by reducing fine particle pollution is challenging when fossil-fuel-based electricity production is increasing. We show that an air quality forecasting system based on a photochemical model can be utilized to efficiently estimate PM2.5 contributions from and health impacts of domestic power plants. We derived PM2.5 concentrations per unit amount of electricity production from existing fossil-fuel power plants in South Korea. We assessed the health impacts of existing fossil-fuel power plants and the PM2.5 concentrations per unit electricity production to quantify the significance of existing and future fossil-fuel power plants with respect to the planned PM2.5 reduction target.

Sources and Processes Affecting Fine Particulate Matter Pollution over North China: An Adjoint Analysis of the Beijing APEC Period

The stringent emission controls during the APEC 2014 (the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit; November 5-11, 2014) offer a unique opportunity to quantify factors affecting fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution over North China. Here we apply a four-dimensional variational data assimilation system using the adjoint model of GEOS-Chem to address this issue. Hourly surface measurements of PM2.5 and SO2 for October 15-November 14, 2014 are assimilated into the model to optimize daily aerosol primary and precursor emissions over North China. Measured PM2.5 concentrations in Beijing average 50.3 μg m(-3) during APEC, 43% lower than the mean concentration (88.2 μg m(-3)) for the whole period including APEC. Model results attribute about half of the reduction to meteorology due to active cold surge occurrences during APEC. Assimilation of surface measurements largely reduces the model biases and estimates 6%-30% lower aerosol emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during APEC than in late October. We further demonstrate that high PM2.5 events in Beijing during this period can be occasionally contributed by natural mineral dust, but more events show large sensitivities to inorganic aerosol sources, particularly emissions of ammonia (NH3) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) reflecting strong formation of aerosol nitrate in the fall season.

An overview of emissions of SO2 and NOx and the long-range transport of oxidized sulfur and nitrogen pollutants in East Asia

The long-range transport of oxidized sulfur (sulfur dioxide (SO2) and sulfate) and oxidized nitrogen (nitrogen oxides (NOx) and nitrate) in East Asia is an area of increasing scientific interest and political concern. This paper reviews various published papers, including ground- and satellite-based observations and numerical simulations. The aim is to assess the status of the anthropogenic emissions of SO2 and NOx and the long-range transport of oxidized S and N pollutants over source and downwind region. China has dominated the emissions of SO2 and NOx in East Asia and urgently needs to strengthen the control of their emissions, especially NOx emissions. Oxidized S and N pollutants emitted from China are transported to Korea and Japan, due to persistent westerly winds, in winter and spring. However, the total contributions of China to S and N pollutants across Korea and Japan were not found to be dominant over longer time scales (e.g., a year). The source-receptor relationships for oxidized S and N pollutants in East Asia varied widely among the different studies. This is because: (1) the nonlinear effects of atmospheric chemistry and deposition processes were not well considered, when calculating the source-receptor relationships; (2) different meteorological and emission data inputs and solution schemes for key physical and chemical processes were used; and (3) different temporal and spatial scales were employed. Therefore, simulations using the same input fields and similar model configurations would be of benefit, to further evaluate the source-receptor relationships of the oxidized S and N pollutants.

Atmospheric transport of ozone between Southern and Eastern Asia

This study describes the effect of pollution transport between East Asia and South Asia on tropospheric ozone (O3) using model results from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF HTAP). Ensemble mean O3 concentrations are evaluated against satellite-data and ground observations of surface O3 at four stations in India. Although modeled surface O3 concentrations are 1020ppb higher than those observed, the relative magnitude of the seasonal cycle of O3 is reproduced well. Using 20% reductions in regional anthropogenic emissions, we quantify the seasonal variations in pollution transport between East Asia and South Asia. While there is only a difference of 0.05 to 0.1ppb in the magnitudes of the regional contributions from one region to the other, O3 from East Asian sources affects the most densely populated parts of South Asia while Southern Asian sources only partly affect the populated parts of East Asia. We show that emission changes over East Asia between 2000 and 2010 had a larger impact on populated parts of South Asia than vice versa. This study will help inform future decisions on emission control policy over these regions.

Long-term inverse modeling of Chinese CO emission from satellite observations

Carbon monoxide (CO) emissions in China in 2005-2010 were estimated by inversion, using the Green's function method from vertical CO profiles derived from MOPITT Version 5 satellite data and a tagged CO simulation, and validated with independent in situ observations from the World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases. Modeling with a posteriori emission successfully reproduced CO outflow from the continent to the East China Sea, Sea of Japan, and Japanese islands during winter and spring, and compensated for underestimates in central and eastern China in summer. A posteriori emissions showed large seasonal variations in which December and March emissions were on average 23% larger than August emissions, consistent with other studies. Estimated Chinese CO emissions were 184.4, 173.1, 184.6, 158.4, 157.4, and 157.3 Tg/year for 2005-2010, respectively. The decrease after 2007 is partly attributed to Chinese socioeconomic conditions and improved combustion efficiency.

Assessing the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on Pacific storm track using a multiscale global climate model

Atmospheric aerosols affect weather and global general circulation by modifying cloud and precipitation processes, but the magnitude of cloud adjustment by aerosols remains poorly quantified and represents the largest uncertainty in estimated forcing of climate change. Here we assess the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on the Pacific storm track, using a multiscale global aerosol-climate model (GCM). Simulations of two aerosol scenarios corresponding to the present day and preindustrial conditions reveal long-range transport of anthropogenic aerosols across the north Pacific and large resulting changes in the aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud and ice water paths. Shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere are changed by -2.5 and +1.3 W m(-2), respectively, by emission changes from preindustrial to present day, and an increased cloud top height indicates invigorated midlatitude cyclones. The overall increased precipitation and poleward heat transport reflect intensification of the Pacific storm track by anthropogenic aerosols. Hence, this work provides, for the first time to the authors' knowledge, a global perspective of the effects of Asian pollution outflows from GCMs. Furthermore, our results suggest that the multiscale modeling framework is essential in producing the aerosol invigoration effect of deep convective clouds on a global scale.

Assessing and forecasting atmospheric outflow of α-HCH from China on intra-, inter-, and decadal time scales

Atmospheric outflow of α-HCH from China from 1952 to 2009 was investigated using Chinese Gridded Pesticide Emission and Residue Model (ChnGPERM). The model results show that the outflows via the northeast boundary (NEB, longitude 115-135 °E along 55 °N and latitude 37-55 °N along 135 °E) and the mid-south boundary (MSB, longitude 100-120 °E along 17 °N) of China account for 47% and 35% of the total outflow, respectively. Two climate indices based on the statistical association between the time series of modeled α-HCH outflow and atmospheric sea-level pressure were developed to predict the outflow on different time scales. The first index explains 70/83% and 10/46% of the intra-annual variability of the outflow via the NEB and MSB during the periods of 1952-1984 and 1985-2009, respectively. The second index explains 16% and 19% of the interannual and longer time scale variability in the outflow through the NEB during June-August and via the MSB during October-December for 1991-2009, respectively. Results also revealed that climate warming may potentially result in stronger outflow via the NEB than the MSB. The linkage between the outflow with large scale atmospheric circulation patterns and climate warming trend over China was also discussed.

Modeling redistribution of α-HCH in Chinese soil induced by environment factors

This study explores long-term environmental fate of α-HCH in China from 1952 to 2007 using ChnGPERM (Chinese Gridded Pesticide Emission and Residue Model). The model captures well the temporal and spatial variations of α-HCH concentration in Chinese soils by comparing with a number of measured data across China in different periods. The results demonstrate α-HCH grasshopping effect in Eastern China and reveal several important features of the chemical in Northeast and Southeast China. It is found that Northeast China is a prominent sink region of α-HCH emitted from Chinese sources and α-HCH contamination in Southwest China is largely attributed to foreign sources. Southeast China is shown to be a major source contributing to α-HCH contamination in Northeast China, incurred by several environmental factors including temperature, soil organic carbon content, wind field and precipitation.

Vertical transport of ozone and CO during super cyclones in the Bay of Bengal as detected by Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer

Vertical profiles of carbon monoxide (CO) and ozone retrieved from Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer have been analyzed during two super cyclone systems Mala and Sidr. Super cyclones Mala and Sidr traversed the Bay of Bengal (BOB) region on April 24-29, 2006 and November 12-16, 2007 respectively. The CO and ozone plume is observed as a strong enhancement of these pollutants in the upper troposphere over the BOB, indicating deep convective transport. Longitude-height cross-section of these pollutants shows vertical transport to the upper troposphere. CO mixing ratio ~90 ppb is observed near the 146-mb level during the cyclone Mala and near 316 mb during the cyclone Sidr. Ozone mixing ratio ~60-100 ppb is observed near the 316-mb level during both the cyclones. Analysis of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis vertical winds (omega) confirms vertical transport in the BOB.

Characterizing the long-range transport of black carbon aerosols during Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) experiment

A major aircraft experiment Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) mission over the NW Pacific in March-April 2001 was conducted to better understand how outflow from the Asian continent affects the composition of the global atmosphere. In this paper, a global climate model, GEOS-Chem is used to investigate possible black carbon aerosol contributions from TRACE-P region. Our result depicts that absorbing black carbon ("soot") significantly outflow during lifting to the free troposphere through warm conveyor belt and convection associated with this lifting. The GEOS-Chem simulation results show significant transport of black carbon aerosols from Asian regions to the Western Pacific region during the spring season. As estimated by GEOS-Chem simulations, approximately 25% of the black carbon concentrations over the western pacific originate from SE Asia in the spring.