Physics-based assessment of earthquake potential on the Anninghe-Zemuhe fault system in southwestern China

The seismic hazard of a fault system is controlled by the maximum possible earthquake magnitude it can host. However, existing methods to estimate maximum magnitudes can result in large uncertainties or ignore their temporal evolution. Here, we show how the maximum possible earthquake magnitude of a fault system can be assessed by combining high-resolution fault coupling maps with a physics-based model from three-dimensional dynamic fracture mechanics confirmed by dynamic rupture simulations. We demonstrate the method on the Anninghe-Zemuhe fault system in southwestern China, where dense near-fault geodetic data has been acquired. Our results show that this fault system currently has the potential to generate Mw7.0 earthquakes with maximum magnitudes increasing to Mw7.3 by 2200. These results are supported by the observed rupture extents and recurrence times of historical earthquakes and the b values of current seismicity. Our work provides a practical way to assess the earthquake potential of natural faults.

Annular shear of cohesionless granular materials: from the inertial to quasistatic regime

Using discrete simulations, we investigate the behavior of a model granular material within an annular shear cell. Specifically, two-dimensional assemblies of disks are placed between two circular walls, the inner one rotating with prescribed angular velocity, while the outer one may expand or shrink and maintains a constant radial pressure. Focusing on steady state flows, we delineate in parameter space the range of applicability of the recently introduced constitutive laws for sheared granular materials (based on the inertial number). We discuss the two origins of the stronger strain rates observed near the inner boundary, the vicinity of the wall and the heteregeneous stress field in a Couette cell. Above a certain velocity, an inertial region develops near the inner wall, to which the known constitutive laws apply, with suitable corrections due to wall slip, for small enough stress gradients. Away from the inner wall, slow, apparently unbounded creep takes place in the nominally solid material, although its density and shear to normal stress ratio are on the jammed side of the critical values. In addition to rheological characterizations, our simulations provide microscopic information on the contact network and velocity fluctuations that is potentially useful to assess theoretical approaches.