Greenhouse gas assemblages (CO2, CH4 and N2O) in the continental shelf of the Gulf of Cadiz (SW Iberian Peninsula)

This study examines the simultaneous water-atmosphere exchange of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) on the continental shelf of the Gulf of Cadiz, as well as the effect it has in terms of the radiative balance in the atmosphere, between 2014 and 2016. The experimental database consists of new measurements of the spatial and seasonal distribution of CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) and N2O concentration in 2016. pCO2 shows a wide range of variation influenced mainly by seasonal thermal variations (8.0 μatm 0C-1), as well as with the relative intensity of biological activity. There is experimental evidence of a progressive increase of pCO2 over the last 2 decades, with an estimated gradient of 4.2 ± 0.7 μatm y-1. During 2016, the Gulf of Cadiz acted as a slight source of CO2 to the atmosphere, with a mean flux of 0.4 ± 2.2 mmol m-2 d-1. The analysis of concentration variations in the water column shows that nitrification is the main N2O production process in the study area, although in the more coastal zone there are signs of inputs related to continental and sediment contributions, most probably induced by denitrification processes. In 2016, the Gulf of Cadiz acted as a weak sink of atmospheric N2O, with a mean flux of -0.1 ± 0.9 μmol m-2 d-1. From previous studies, performed with a similar methodology, an interannual database (2014-2016) of water-atmosphere fluxes of CO2, CH4 and N2O, normalized to the mean wind speed in the area, has been generated. Considering their respective Global Warming Potential (GWP) a joint greenhouse gasses (GHG) flux, expressed in CO2 equivalents of 0.6 ± 2.0 mmol m-2 d-1, has been estimated, which extended to the area of study indicates an approximate emission of 67.9 Gg CO2 y-1. However, although there is a high uncertainty associated with the spatial, temporal and interannual variations of CO2, CH4 and N2O fluxes in the Gulf of Cadiz, the exchange of greenhouse gasses could be influencing a radiative forcing increase in the atmosphere. When considering the available information on local and global estimates, the uncertainty about the effect of the joint exchange of GHGs to the atmosphere from the coastal seas increases significantly.

Variability patterns and phenology of harmful phytoplankton blooms off southern Portugal: Looking for region-specific environmental drivers and predictors

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) negatively impact coastal ecosystems, fisheries, and human health, and their prediction has become imperative for effective coastal management. This study aimed to evaluate spatial-temporal variability patterns and phenology for key toxigenic phytoplankton species off southern Portugal, during a 6-year period, and identify region-specific environmental drivers and predictors. Total abundance of species responsible for amnesic shellfish poisoning (Pseudo-nitzschia spp.), diarrhetic shellfish poisoning (Dinophysis spp.), and paralytic shellfish poisoning (G. catenatum) were retrieved, from the National Bivalve Mollusk Monitoring System public database. Contemporaneous environmental variables were acquired from satellite remote sensing, model-derived data, and in situ observations, and generalized additive models (GAMs) were used to explore the functional relationships between HABs and environmental variables and identify region-specific predictors. Pseudo-nitzschia spp. showed a bimodal annual cycle for most coastal production areas, with spring and summer maxima, reflecting the increase in light intensity during the mixed layer shoaling stage, and the later stimulatory effects of upwelling events, with a higher bloom frequency over coastal areas subjected to stronger upwelling intensity. Dinophysis spp. exhibited a unimodal annual cycle, with spring/summer maxima associated with stratified conditions, that typically promote dinoflagellates. Dinophysis spp. blooms were delayed with respect to Pseudo-nitzschia spp. spring blooms, and followed by Pseudo-nitzschia spp. summer blooms, probably reflecting upwelling-relaxation cycles. G. catenatum occurred occasionally, namely in areas more influenced by river discharges, under weaker upwelling. Statistical-empirical models (GAMs) explained 7-8%, and 21-54% of the variability in Pseudo-nitzschia spp. and Dinophysis spp., respectively. Overall, a set of four easily accessible environmental variables, surface photosynthetically available radiation, mixed layer depth, sea surface temperature, and chlorophyll-a concentration, emerged as the most influential predictors. Additionally, over the coastal production areas along the south coast, river discharges exerted minor negative effects on both HAB groups. Despite evidence supporting the role of upwelling intensity as an environmental driver of Pseudo-nitzschia spp., it was not identified as a relevant model predictor. Future model developments, such as the inclusion of additional environmental variables, and the implementation of species- and period-specific, and hybrid modelling approaches, may further support HAB operational forecasting and managing over complex coastal domains.

Organic carbon budget for the eastern boundary of the North Atlantic subtropical gyre: major role of DOC in mesopelagic respiration

Transports of suspended particulate (POCsusp) and dissolved (DOC) organic carbon are inferred from a box-model covering the eastern boundary of the North Atlantic subtropical gyre. Corresponding net respiration rates (R) are obtained from a net organic carbon budget that is based on the transport estimates, and includes both vertical and lateral fluxes. The overall R in the mesopelagic layer (100-1500 m) is 1.6 ± 0.4 mmol C m-2 d-1. DOC accounts for up to 53% of R as a result of drawdown of organic carbon within Eastern North Atlantic Central Water (ENACW) that is entrained into sinking Mediterranean Overflow Water (MOW) that leads to formation of Mediterranean water (MW) at intermediate depths (~900 m). DOC represents 90% of the respired non-sinking organic carbon. When converted into oxygen units, the computed net respiration rate represents less than half the oxygen utilization rates (OUR) reported for the mesopelagic waters of the subtropical North Atlantic. Mesoscale processes in the area, not quantified with our approach, could account in part for the OUR differences observed between our carbon budget and other published studies from the North Atlantic, although seasonal or interannual variability could also be responsible for the difference in the estimates.

Portuguese Man-of-War (Physalia physalis) in the Mediterranean: A permanent invasion or a casual appearance?

In 2010, the Mediterranean basin experienced Portuguese Man-of-War (Physalia physalis) swarms that had dramatic consequences, including the region’s first recorded human fatality attributed to a jellyfish sting. Despite the impact of jellyfish on coastal economic activity and the importance of the tourism industry for the Mediterranean region (accounting for 15% of global tourism), no scientific consensus has been achieved regarding the causes of this episode. Here, we analyse the meteorological and oceanographic conditions of the North-East Atlantic Ocean during the months previous to the appearance of P. physalis in the Mediterranean. We simulate the probable drift of Atlantic populations into the Mediterranean basin with a numerical model and compare model results with available observations. We conclude that the summer 2010 P. Physalis swarm was the result of an unusual combination of meteorological and oceanographic conditions during the previous winter and not a permanent invasion favoured by climatic changes.

Efficient tools for marine operational forecast and oil spill tracking

Ocean forecasting and oil spill modelling and tracking are complex activities requiring specialised institutions. In this work we present a lighter solution based on the Operational Ocean Forecast Python Engine (OOFε) and the oil spill model General NOAA Operational Modelling Environment (GNOME). These two are robust relocatable and simple to implement and maintain. Implementations of the operational engine in three different regions with distinct oceanic systems, using the ocean model Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS), are described, namely the Galician region, the southeastern Brazilian waters and the Texas-Louisiana shelf. GNOME was able to simulate the fate of the Prestige oil spill (Galicia) and compared well with observations of the Krimsk accident (Texas). Scenarios of hypothetical spills in Campos Basin (Brazil) are illustrated, evidencing the sensitiveness to the dynamical system. OOFε and GNOME are proved to be valuable, efficient and low cost tools and can be seen as an intermediate stage towards more complex operational implementations of ocean forecasting and oil spill modelling strategies.

Towards operational modeling and forecasting of the Iberian shelves ecosystem

There is a growing interest on physical and biogeochemical oceanic hindcasts and forecasts from a wide range of users and businesses. In this contribution we present an operational biogeochemical forecast system for the Portuguese and Galician oceanographic regions, where atmospheric, hydrodynamic and biogeochemical variables are integrated. The ocean model ROMS, with a horizontal resolution of 3 km, is forced by the atmospheric model WRF and includes a Nutrients-Phytoplankton-Zooplankton-Detritus biogeochemical module (NPZD). In addition to oceanographic variables, the system predicts the concentration of nitrate, phytoplankton, zooplankton and detritus (mmol N m⁻³). Model results are compared against radar currents and remote sensed SST and chlorophyll. Quantitative skill assessment during a summer upwelling period shows that our modelling system adequately represents the surface circulation over the shelf including the observed spatial variability and trends of temperature and chlorophyll concentration. Additionally, the skill assessment also shows some deficiencies like the overestimation of upwelling circulation and consequently, of the duration and intensity of the phytoplankton blooms. These and other departures from the observations are discussed, their origins identified and future improvements suggested. The forecast system is the first of its kind in the region and provides free online distribution of model input and output, as well as comparisons of model results with satellite imagery for qualitative operational assessment of model skill.