Spatial and seasonal variations in suspended particulate matter concentration and composition in the Persian Gulf: From dust deposition and sediment resuspension to biological production in the regulation of the particulate trace elements

The present document is intended to fill the knowledge gap on spatiotemporal variation of suspended particulate matter (SPM) concentration and composition by collecting samples from 26 stations during two contrasting seasons of summer and winter. The horizontal distribution of surface SPM is characterized by hotspots (up to 4.0 mg/l) along the river estuaries which sharply declined to <1 mg/l in the offshore region. The average SPM concentration for surface, 25 m, and near-bottom decreased from summer to winter by a factor of 1.1, 1.3, and 1.7, respectively. In the offshore region, the particle composition was dominated by particulate organic matter which accounted for 66 % of bulk SPM. The concentration of opaline silica increased from summer to winter presumably from the bloom of diatoms. The concentration of particulate trace elements in winter decreased in the order of Fe ≫ Ba > Mn ≈ Zn > Ni ≈ Cr ≫ Pb > Cd. The non-crustal portion is the predominant fraction for most trace metals and shows enrichment relative to the upper continental crust, local soil background, and deposited dust that is highest for Cd and lowest for Mn.

Extraction of persistent lagrangian coherent structures for the pollutant transport prediction in the Bay of Bengal

Lagrangian Coherent Structures (LCS) are the hidden fluid flow skeletons that provide meaningful information about the Lagrangian circulation. In this study, we computed the monthly climatological LCSs (cLCS) maps utilizing 24 years (1994-2017) of HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) currents and ECMWF re-analysis winds in the Bay of Bengal (BoB). The seasonal reversal of winds and associated reversal of currents makes the BoB dynamic. Therefore, we primarily aim to reveal the cLCSs associated with seasonal monsoon currents and mesoscale (eddies) processes over BoB. The simulated cLCS were augmented with the complex empirical orthogonal functions to confirm the dominant lagrangian transport pattern features better. The constructed cLCS patterns show a seasonal accumulation zone and the transport pattern of freshwater plumes along the coastal region of the BoB. We further validated with the satellite imagery of real-time oil spill dispersion and modelled oil spill trajectories that match well with the LCS patterns. In addition, the application of cLCSs to study the transport of hypothetical oil spills occurring at one of the active oil exploration sites (Krishna-Godavari basin) was described. Thus, demonstrated the accumulation zones in the BoB and confirmed that the persistent monthly cLCS maps are reasonably performing well for the trajectory prediction of pollutants such as oil spills. These maps will help to initiate mitigation measures in case of any occurrence of oil spills in the future.

Dynamic hydrographic and water-quality variations in the northwestern Arabian Gulf, a sinking zone of reverse estuarine circulation

Continuous measurements of hydrographic, hydrodynamic, and water quality showed marked diurnal, tidal, and seasonal variabilities in Kuwait Bay, a stressed coastal system in the northwestern Arabian/Persian Gulf. Advection of water masses and seasonality in vertical mixing regulated the Bay's hydrographic and water quality properties. Intensive stratification in summer had substantial implications on the Bay environment. Kuwait Bay constantly exports dense bottom water laden with dissolved inorganic nutrients and organic matter to the central basin of the Gulf. The export was largest in August under strong water column stratification. These in-situ findings agreed well with earlier studies that corroborated Kuwait Bay as an important area where the phenomenon of reverse estuarine circulation originates in the Gulf. Thus, Kuwait Bay is a significant source of nutrients and organic matter to the Gulf Deep Water that flows into the core of the oxygen minimum zone in the northwestern Indian Ocean.

Fate of MV Wakashio oil spill off Mauritius coast through modelling and remote sensing observations

This study aims at assessing the fate of MV Wakashio oil spill, and the driving forces responsible for possible environmental consequences of polluted coastal region. GNOME simulations were performed, considering various meteo-oceanographic forcings such as (i) winds and currents, (ii) only winds, and (iii) only winds with different diffusion coefficients, and validated with the satellite images. The results revealed that the simulations performed with 'only winds' reasonably match with the satellite observations, indicating that winds are the primary driving forces. The conducive stokes drift is an added contribution to the predominant northwestward drift of the spill. The oil budget analysis suggests that beaching and evaporation together accounted for a significant portion of the spilled oil (1000 tons), in which ~60% of the oil was accounted only for beaching. Our results depict that the diffusion coefficient of 100,000 cm²/s and 3% windages are optimal for oil-spill simulations off the southeastern Mauritius coast.

Modeling the combined impact of climate change and sea-level rise on general circulation and residence time in a semi-enclosed sea

This study provides an assessment of possible changes in the general circulation and residence time in the Persian Gulf under potential future sea-level rise and changes in the wind field due to the climate change. To determine the climate-change-induced impacts, Mike 3 Flow Model FM was used to simulate hydrodynamic and transport processes in the Persian Gulf in both historical (1998-2014) and future periods (2081-2100). Historical simulation was driven by ERA-Interim data. A statistical approach was employed to modify the values and directions of the future wind field obtained from the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) scenarios derived from CMCC-CM model of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The numerical model was calibrated and validated using measured data. Results indicated that in the historical period, residence time ranged between values of less than a month in the Strait of Hormuz and 10 years in the semi-enclosed area close to the south of Bahrain. The changes in wind field based on RCP 8.5 scenario were found to be the most disadvantageous for the Persian Gulf's capacity to flush dissolved pollutants out. Under this scenario, residence time would be 17% longer than that of historical one. This is mainly because the change in the wind field is large enough to overwhelm general circulation, showing a relationship between the residence time and the residual circulation. Impact of change in the wind field according to RCP 4.5 scenario on the modeled residence time is negligible. The numerical outputs also showed that the sea-level rise would slightly decrease the current velocity, resulting in a negligible increase in residence time. The findings of this study are intended to support establishing climate-adaptation management plans for coastal zones of the studied area in line with sustainable development goals.

Freshwater budget in the Persian (Arabian) Gulf and exchanges at the Strait of Hormuz

Excess evaporation within the Persian (also referred as the Arabian) Gulf induces an inverse-estuary circulation. Surface waters are imported, via the Strait of Hormuz, while saltier waters are exported in the deeper layers. Using output of a 1/12-Degree horizontal resolution ocean general circulation model, the spatial structure and time variability of the circulation and the exchanges of volume and salt through the Strait of Hormuz are investigated in detail. The model’s circulation pattern in the Gulf is found to be in good agreement with observations and other studies based on numerical models. The mean export of salty waters in the bottom layer is of 0.26±0.05Sv (Sverdrup = 1.0 × 10⁶m³s⁻¹). The net freshwater import, the equivalent of the salt export divided by a reference salinity, done by the baroclinic circulation across that vertical section is decomposed in an overturning and a horizontal components, with mean values of 7.2±2.1 × 10⁻³Sv and 5.0±1.7 × 10⁻³Sv respectively. An important, novel finding of this work is that the horizontal component is confined to the deeper layers, mainly in the winter. It is also described for the first time that both components are correlated at the same level with the basin averaged evaporation minus precipitation (E-P) over the Persian Gulf. The highest correlation (r² = 0.59) of the total freshwater transport across 26°N with E-P over the Gulf is found with a one-month time lag, with E-P leading. The time series of freshwater import does not show any significant trend in the period from 1980 to 2015. Power spectra analysis shows that most of the energy is concentrated in the seasonal cycle. Some intraseasonal variability, likely related to the Shamal wind phenomenon, and possible impacts of El-Nino are also detected. These results suggest that the overturning and the horizontal components of freshwater exchange across the Strait of Hormuz are both driven by dynamic and thermodynamic processes inside the Persian Gulf.

An overview of management and monitoring of harmful algal blooms in the northern part of the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea (Hormuzgan Province)

Algal bloom as a common phenomenon in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman had catastrophic effects on environmental, social, economic, and human health aspects from 2008 to 2009. Since 2008, the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman Ecological Research Institute (PGSOERI) has monitored and managed algal blooms in the Hormuzgan coast along the northern Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman. Management strategies have included regular monitoring of chlorophyll, water quality, and remote sensing. In this regard, relevant departments and the Regional Organization for Protection of Marine Environment (ROPME) collaborated with each other to prevent and forecast algal blooms. We reviewed historical and current monitoring, mitigation, and management systems of algal blooms in the Hormuzgan coast. In addition, complications and challenges of algal bloom monitoring and management were also discussed. Documenting algal bloom monitoring and research, improving forecasting and modeling of blooms, educating the public and fishermen, developing a cooperative monitoring framework, and controlling pollution input entering the ROPME region are the main challenges of algal bloom management in the Hormuzgan coast.

Numerical Prediction of Background Buildup of Salinity Due to Desalination Brine Discharges into the Northern Arabian Gulf

Brine discharges from desalination plants into low-flushing water bodies are challenging from the point of view of dilution, because of the possibility of background buildup effects that decrease the overall achievable dilution. To illustrate the background buildup effect, this paper uses the Arabian (Persian) Gulf, a shallow, reverse tidal estuary with only one outlet available for exchange flow. While desalination does not significantly affect the long-term average Gulf-wide salinity, due to the mitigating effect of the Indian Ocean Surface Water inflow, its resulting elevated salinities, as well as elevated concentrations of possible contaminants (such as heavy metals and organophosphates), can affect marine environments on a local and regional scale. To analyze the potential effect of background salinity buildup on dilutions achievable from discharge locations in the northern Gulf, a 3-dimensional hydrodynamic model (Delft3D) was used to simulate brine discharges from a single hypothetical source location along the Kuwaiti shoreline, about 900 km from the Strait of Hormuz. Using nested grids with a horizontal resolution, comparable to a local tidal excursion (250 m), far field dilutions of about 28 were computed for this discharge location. With this far field dilution, to achieve a total dilution of 20, the near field dilution (achievable using a submerged diffuser) would need to be increased to approximately 70. Conversely, the background build-up means that a near field dilution of 20 yields a total dilution of only about 12.

Surface Heat Fluxes over the Northern Arabian Gulf and the Northern Red Sea: Evaluation of ECMWF-ERA5 and NASA-MERRA2 Reanalyses

The air–sea heat fluxes in marginal seas and under extreme weather conditions constitute an essential source for energy transport and mixing dynamics. To reproduce these effects in numerical models, we need a better understanding of these fluxes. In response to this demand, we undertook a study to examine the surface heat fluxes in the Arabian Gulf (2013 to 2014) and Red Sea (2008 to 2010)—the two salty Indian Ocean marginal seas. We use high-quality buoy observations from offshore meteorological stations and data from two reanalysis products, the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA2) from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and ERA5, the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) atmospheric reanalyses of global climate. Comparison of the reanalyses with the in situ-derived fluxes shows that both products underestimate the net heat fluxes in the Gulf and the Red Sea, with biases up to −45 W/m 2 in MERRA2. The reanalyses reproduce relatively well the seasonal variability in the two regions and the effects of wind events on air–sea fluxes. The results suggest that when forcing numerical models, ERA5 might provide a preferable dataset of surface heat fluxes for the Arabian Gulf while for the Red Sea the MERRA2 seems preferable.

Probabilistic risk assessment of oil spill from offshore oil wells in Persian Gulf

Oil spills in the marine environment can have serious environmental, social and economic impacts. These impacts may be of transnational nature, and this makes the oil spill problem an international issue. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a common structured methodology for oil spill risk assessment. In this research, a general framework is presented for probabilistic risk assessment of oil spill from offshore oil wells. A case study is also performed in Persian Gulf to quantify the risk posed by 357 offshore wells to the near-shore receptors. First, thousands of hypothetical spill scenarios of different volumes are defined and simulated using a Lagrangian particle tracking model. Then, the result of the simulations is statistically processed to generate the risk networks and risk maps. The result of this research shed light on the importance of the pattern of environmental forcing elements and the frequency of spills in oil spill risk assessment.

Analysis of bloom conditions in fall 2013 in the Strait of Hormuz using satellite observations and model simulations

In this study an algal bloom event in fall 2013 in the Strait of Hormuz was thoroughly investigated using satellite remote sensing and hydrodynamic modeling. The motivation of this study is to deduce ambient conditions prior to and during the bloom outbreak and understand its trigger. Bloom tracking was achieved by sequential MODIS imagery and numerical simulations. Satellite observations showed that the bloom was initiated in late October 2013 and dissipated in early June 2014. Trajectories of bloom patches were simulated using a Lagrangian transport model. Model-based predictions of bloom patches' trajectories were in good agreement with satellite observations with a probability of detection (POD) reaching 0.85. Analysis of ancillary data, including sea surface temperature, ocean circulation, and wind, indicated that the bloom was likely caused by upwelling conditions in the Strait of Hormuz. Combined with numerical models, satellite observations provide an essential tool for investigating bloom conditions.