Leukaemia and wartime evacuation

Wartime evacuation and mortality from childhood leukaemia in England and Wales in 1945-9

OBJECTIVE

To discover whether the wartime government evacuation of children from London and other population centres to rural districts was associated with any increase in childhood leukaemia.

DESIGN

Observational study of mortality from leukaemia among the childhood population of England and Wales in relation to the unique population movements during the second world war. The 476 rural districts of England and Wales were ranked according to the ratio of government evacuees (two thirds of them children) to local children in September 1941. The districts were divided into three categories, each with similar numbers of children in 1947 but with different ratios of evacuees to local children ("low," "intermediate," "high"). Mortality from childhood leukaemia was examined in these three rural categories in 1945-9. Urban areas were also examined according to their exposure to evacuees.

SETTING

Local authority areas of England and Wales.

SUBJECTS

Children aged under 15.

RESULTS

47% excess of leukaemia at ages 0-14 years occurred in 1945-9 in the rural "high" category for evacuees relative to the "low" category, with a significant trend across the three categories. There were increases in both the 0-4 and 5-14 year age groups, but these were larger in the older age group. Rates 25% lower than average occurred in rural areas with few evacuees.

CONCLUSION

These findings suggest that wartime evacuation increased the incidence of childhood leukaemia in rural areas and that other forms of population mixing may have contributed to the increases in past decades. Overall, they add to the appreciable evidence for an infective basis in childhood leukaemia.

Viral contacts confound studies of childhood leukemia and high-voltage transmission lines

Studies of childhood leukemia have reported a link with residential proximity to electric utility facilities. This paper elaborates on the hypothesis that residential proximity to electric utility transmission-systems is a surrogate for viral contacts, a potential confounder in these studies. While the causal implications of increased viral contacts is not established, the assumption made here is that a significant component of childhood leukemia has an infectious etiology. Increased viral contacts can result from residential mobility, being first born, or use of community childcare facilities. Re-analysis of existing studies should look specifically for the interaction between childhood leukemia, markers for viral contacts (e.g., residential mobility, birth order, use of outside childcare facilities), and residential proximity to high-voltage transmission lines. New study designs should include parameters to test directly for a virus-related infectious model for childhood leukemia.