Spatial temporal patterns in childhood leukaemia: further evidence for an infectious origin. EUROCLUS project

Space-time clustering of childhood cancers: a systematic review and pooled analysis

The aetiology of childhood cancers remains largely unknown. Space–time clustering of cases might imply an aetiological role of infections. We aimed to review the evidence of space–time clustering of specific childhood cancers. We searched Medline and Embase for population-based studies that covered a pre-defined study area, included cases under 20 years of age and were published before July 2016. We extracted all space–time clustering tests and calculated the proportion of positive tests per diagnostic group. In a pooled analysis, we performed a Knox test of the number of pairs of cases close to each other in time and space pooled across studies. 70 studies met our eligibility criteria, 32 of which reported Knox tests. For leukaemia, the proportion of positive tests was higher than expected by chance at both time of diagnosis (26%) and birth (11%). The pooled analysis showed strong evidence of clustering at diagnosis for children aged 0–5 years for a spatial and temporal lag of 5 km and 6 months, respectively (p < 0.001). The evidence was mixed for lymphoma and tumours of the central nervous system. The current study suggests that leukaemia cases cluster in space–time due to an aetiological factor affecting children under 5 years of age. The observed pattern of clustering of young children close to time of diagnosis is compatible with Greaves’ delayed-infections-hypothesis.

Space-Time Clustering of Childhood Leukemia: Evidence of an Association with ETV6-RUNX1 (TEL-AML1) Fusion

BACKGROUND

Many studies have observed space-time clustering of childhood leukemia (CL) yet few have attempted to elicit etiological clues from such clustering. We recently reported space-time clustering of CL around birth, and now aim to generate etiological hypotheses by comparing clustered and nonclustered cases. We also investigated whether the clustering resulted from many small aggregations of cases or from a few larger clusters.

METHODS

We identified cases of persons born and diagnosed between 1985 and 2014 at age 0-15 years from the Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry. We determined spatial and temporal lags that maximized evidence of clustering based on the Knox test and classified cases born within these lags from another case as clustered. Using logistic regression adjusted for child population density, we determined whether clustering status was associated with age at diagnosis, immunophenotype, cytogenetic subtype, perinatal and socioeconomic characteristics, and pollution sources.

RESULTS

Analyses included 1,282 cases of which 242 were clustered (born within 1 km and 2 years from another case). Of all investigated characteristics only the t(12;21)(p13;q22) translocation (resulting in ETV6-RUNX1 fusion) differed significantly in prevalence between clustered and nonclustered cases (40% and 25%, respectively; adjusted OR 2.54 [1.52-4.23]; p = 0.003). Spatio-temporal clustering was driven by an excess of aggregations of two or three children rather than by a few large clusters.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest ETV6-RUNX1 is associated with space-time clustering of CL and are consistent with an infection interacting with that oncogene in early life leading to clinical leukemia.

Space-time clustering of childhood cancers in Switzerland: A nationwide study

The aetiology of childhood cancers remains largely unknown. It has been hypothesized that infections may be involved and that mini-epidemics thereof could result in space-time clustering of incident cases. Most previous studies support spatio-temporal clustering for leukaemia, while results for other diagnostic groups remain mixed. Few studies have corrected for uneven regional population shifts which can lead to spurious detection of clustering. We examined whether there is space-time clustering of childhood cancers in Switzerland identifying cases diagnosed at age <16 years between 1985 and 2010 from the Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry. Knox tests were performed on geocoded residence at birth and diagnosis separately for leukaemia, acute lymphoid leukaemia (ALL), lymphomas, tumours of the central nervous system, neuroblastomas and soft tissue sarcomas. We used Baker's Max statistic to correct for multiple testing and randomly sampled time-, sex- and age-matched controls from the resident population to correct for uneven regional population shifts. We observed space-time clustering of childhood leukaemia at birth (Baker's Max p = 0.045) but not at diagnosis (p = 0.98). Clustering was strongest for a spatial lag of <1 km and a temporal lag of <2 years (Observed/expected close pairs: 124/98; p Knox test = 0.003). A similar clustering pattern was observed for ALL though overall evidence was weaker (Baker's Max p = 0.13). Little evidence of clustering was found for other diagnostic groups (p > 0.2). Our study suggests that childhood leukaemia tends to cluster in space-time due to an etiologic factor present in early life.

Childhood leukemia and residential proximity to industrial and urban sites

BACKGROUND

Few risk factors for the childhood leukemia are well established. While a small fraction of cases of childhood leukemia might be partially attributable to some diseases or ionizing radiation exposure, the role of industrial and urban pollution also needs to be assessed.

OBJECTIVES

To ascertain the possible effect of residential proximity to both industrial and urban areas on childhood leukemia, taking into account industrial groups and toxic substances released.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based case-control study of childhood leukemia in Spain, covering 638 incident cases gathered from the Spanish Registry of Childhood Tumors and for those Autonomous Regions with 100% coverage (period 1990-2011), and 13,188 controls, individually matched by year of birth, sex, and autonomous region of residence. Distances were computed from the respective subject's residences to the 1068 industries and the 157 urban areas with ≥10,000 inhabitants, located in the study area. Using logistic regression, odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs) for categories of distance to industrial and urban pollution sources were calculated, with adjustment for matching variables.

RESULTS

Excess risk of childhood leukemia was observed for children living near (≤2.5 km) industries (OR=1.31; 95%CI=1.03-1.67) - particularly glass and mineral fibers (OR=2.42; 95%CI=1.49-3.92), surface treatment using organic solvents (OR=1.87; 95%CI=1.24-2.83), galvanization (OR=1.86; 95%CI=1.07-3.21), production and processing of metals (OR=1.69; 95%CI=1.22-2.34), and surface treatment of metals (OR=1.62; 95%CI=1.22-2.15) - , and urban areas (OR=1.36; 95%CI=1.02-1.80).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study furnishes some evidence that living in the proximity of industrial and urban sites may be a risk factor for childhood leukemia.

Risks from ionising radiation: an HPA viewpoint paper for Safegrounds

Safegrounds is a forum for developing and disseminating good practice guidance on the management of radioactively contaminated land on nuclear and defence sites in the UK. This review has been provided to Safegrounds as a summary of the basis for current radiation risk estimates and the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) protection system, in a form that will be accessible to a wide range of stakeholders. Safegrounds has also received viewpoint papers from other members who contend that the ICRP methodology results in substantial underestimates of risk, particularly for internal emitters. There is an extensive literature on the risks of radiation exposure, regularly reviewed by the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) and other expert groups. These data provide a sound basis for the system of protection recommended by ICRP. The available epidemiological and experimental evidence supports the application of cancer risk estimates derived for acute, high dose, external exposures to low dose exposures to external and internal sources. In the context of radioactively contaminated land on nuclear and defence sites, the national standards for the cleaning up of land and for waste disposal correspond to very low doses, two orders of magnitude less than average annual doses in the UK from natural background radiation (10-20  µSv compared with 2-3 mSv). Risks at such very low doses can only be estimated on the basis of observations after exposure of population groups at much higher doses. The estimated risks at these very low doses, while uncertain, are as likely to be overestimates as underestimates.

Incidence rates of the major leukemia subtypes among U.S. Hispanics, Blacks, and non-Hispanic Whites

While leukemia rates are thought to be lower in South and Central America, no study has systematically investigated incidence rates of the leukemia subtypes among Hispanics in the U.S. This was a retrospective cohort study, using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program of the National Cancer Institute, 1992 - 2001, to compare leukemia incidence rates as a function of race and ethnicity. It was found that in adults, Hispanics had lower incidence rates for each of the major types of leukemia as compared to non-Hispanic Whites: For AML, elderly Whites had an incidence rate ratio (IRR) of 1.61 in comparison to Hispanics (p < 0.001) and 1.27 in comparison to Blacks (p < 0.001); for CML, the IRR among the elderly was 1.42 that of Hispanics (p < 0.001) and 1.22 that of Blacks (p = 0.003); and for CLL, the IRR was 2.31 times that of Hispanics (p < 0.001) and 1.48 times that of Blacks (p < 0.001). In ALL, however, Hispanics aged 0 - 19 had a significantly higher incidence rate than Whites and Blacks, with an IRR of 1.32 compared to Whites (p < 0.001), and 2.62 compared to Blacks (p < 0.001). In AML, CML, and CLL, among people age 65 or older, white non-Hispanics have higher incidence rates than Blacks, and Blacks have higher incidence rates than Hispanics. Childhood ALL incidence rates are highest among Hispanics, and lowest among Blacks.

Incidence, time trends and regional variation of childhood leukaemia in Germany and Europe

This paper presents data on the German and Europe-wide incidence, time trends and regional variations of childhood leukaemia. Data were provided by the German Childhood Cancer Registry (GCCR), a population-based cancer registry recording all cases of malignant diseases in children under 15 y of age residing in Germany and by the Automated Childhood Cancer Information System (ACCIS) co-ordinated at International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, that combines and evaluates data from several European population-based cancer registries. The incidence of leukaemia (44.0 per million) has increased in Europe as well as in Germany in the last decades (0.6% annually on average). Germany shows no systematic aggregation of regions with low or high cancer incidence in terms of regional clustering. Incidence rates differ between European regions with the highest rates in Northern Europe (48.0 per million) and the lowest rates in Eastern Europe (39.1). Altogether, the results from ACCIS and the GCCR show good agreement.

The Epidemiology of Childhood Leukemia with a Focus on Birth Weight and Diet

Leukemia is the most common childhood cancer and a major source of morbidity and mortality. The etiology of childhood leukemia remains largely unknown. Cytogenetic abnormalities determine disease subtypes, prognosis, clinical presentation, and course and may help in discovering etiological factors. Epidemiologic investigations of leukemia are complicated by many factors, including the rarity of the disease, necessitating careful study design. Two emerging areas of interest in leukemia etiology are birth weight and diet. High birth weight has been associated with increased risk of childhood leukemia. The biological mechanism behind this association may involve insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I), which is associated with high birth weight. IGF-I may act by increasing the absolute number of stem cells available for transformation, stimulating the growth of cells that are already transformed, or a combination of effects. Diet has been linked with leukemia. Maternal dietary DNA topoisomerase II (DNAt2) inhibitor intake is associated with infant acute myeloid leukemia (AML) with the MLL gene translocation. Increased intake of fruits and vegetables has been associated with decreased leukemia risk and, relatedly, lack of maternal folate supplementation has been associated with increased childhood leukemia risk, possibly by causing DNA hypomethylation and increased DNA strand breaks. Methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) gene polymorphisms modify this risk.

Childhood leukemia in the vicinity of nuclear power plants in Germany

INTRODUCTION

The causes of leukemia are largely unclear. The question whether leukemia rates are increased near nuclear power plants is controversial. The German Childhood Cancer Registry has published an epidemiological case-control study on childhood cancer and nuclear power plants.

METHOD

The study was based on the distance of children's residences from nuclear power plants and addressed the question whether children under age 5 with cancer live closer, on average, to nuclear power plants than randomly selected controls. Odds Ratios (OR) for distance categories and standardized incidence ratios (SIR) were calculated.

RESULTS

An association was found between the nearness of residence to nuclear power plants and the risk of leukemia (593 cases, 1766 controls). Within the 5-km zone, the OR for the development of leukemia in children under 5 years of age was 2.19 compared to the rest of the region, and this elevation of the OR was statistically significant. The incidence of leukemia in the overall study region was the same as that in Germany as a whole (SIR=0.99; 95% confidence interval 0.92-1.07).

DISCUSSION

Based on the available information about radiation emissions from German nuclear power plants, a direct relation to radiation seems implausible. Many factors may conceivably cause leukemia, possibly operating in combination, and these factors may be present to a greater extent in the vicinity of German nuclear power plants.

A method to model season of birth as a surrogate environmental risk factor for disease

Environmental exposures, including some that vary seasonally, may play a role in the development of many types of childhood diseases such as cancer. Those observed in children are unique in that the relevant period of exposure is inherently limited or perhaps even specific to a very short window during prenatal development or early infancy. As such, researchers have investigated whether specific childhood cancers are associated with season of birth. Typically a basic method for analysis has been used, for example categorization of births into one of four seasons, followed by simple comparisons between categories such as via logistic regression, to obtain odds ratios (ORs), confidence intervals (CIs) and p-values. In this paper we present an alternative method, based upon an iterative trigonometric logistic regression model used to analyze the cyclic nature of birth dates related to disease occurrence. Disease birth-date results are presented using a sinusoidal graph with a peak date of relative risk and a single p-value that tests whether an overall seasonal association is present. An OR and CI comparing children born in the 3-month period around the peak to the symmetrically opposite 3-month period also can be obtained. Advantages of this derivative-free method include ease of use, increased statistical power to detect associations, and the ability to avoid potentially arbitrary, subjective demarcation of seasons.

Specific viruses were not detected in Guthrie cards from children who later developed leukemia

There are hypotheses concerning infectious mechanism in the development of acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). The first genetic event often happens in utero, based on studies from Guthrie cards. The authors have summarized the results from their studies concerning infectious mechanism. Presence of human polyomaviruses, parvovirus, HHV-6, EBV, and CMV were investigated by PCR from Guthrie cards from children who later developed ALL and healthy controls. Neither of these viruses were detected from patients nor from controls. The results do not support that these viruses have contributed to the development of a substantial part of the ALL cases in Swedish children.

Clustering of childhood cancer in the inner city of Tehran metropolitan area: A GIS-based analysis

The aim of this study was both to map the childhood cancer incidence in the districts of Tehran metropolitan area and to explore possible clustering of cancer cases in the diverse environments of this area. All incidence cases of childhood cancers (age group under 15 years) belonging to the 22 districts of Tehran metropolis and occurring during the period of 1998 till 2002 were ascertained from three sources. Each case's place of residency was geo-referenced. The scan statistics cluster detecting technique was used to evaluate clustering of cases throughout Tehran. The overall incidence rate (IR) of childhood cancer was 176.3/1,000,000 children under 15 years of age. The lowest IR among both boys and girls was observed in district 22 (69.4/1,000,000) and the highest was observed in district 6 (242.09/1,000,000). The detection of clusters was performed for all cancer sites. All the cancer sites combined category showed clustering in the districts 7, 13, 8, 6, 3, 14, 12, 11, and 4. For this category, the clustering likelihood was marginally statistically significant (p-value=0.056), with an overall relative risk of 1.30. No statistically significant patterns of clustering were detected for other categories.

Time trends of cancer incidence in European children (1978-1997): report from the Automated Childhood Cancer Information System project

Within the framework of the Automated Childhood Cancer Information System (ACCIS), time trend analyses for childhood cancer were performed using data from 33 population-based cancer registries in 15 European countries for the period 1978-1997. The overall incidence rate based on 77,111 cases has increased significantly (P<0.0001), with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of 1.1%. The rising trend was observed in all five geographical regions and in the majority of the disease groups (in order of AAPC): soft tissue sarcomas (1.8%), brain tumours, tumours of the sympathetic nervous system, germ-cell tumours, carcinomas, lymphomas, renal tumours, and leukaemias (0.6%). No change was seen in incidence of bone tumours, hepatic tumours and retinoblastoma. The increased incidence can only partly be explained by changes in diagnostic methods and by registration artefacts. The patterns and magnitude of these increases suggest that other factors, e.g. changes in lifestyle and in exposure to a variety of agents, have contributed to the increase in childhood cancer in the recent decades.

Bayesian methods for early detection of changes in childhood cancer incidence: Trends for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia are consistent with an infectious aetiology

Published data on time trends in the incidence of childhood leukaemia show inconsistent patterns, with some studies showing increases and others showing relatively stable incidence rates. Data on time trends in childhood cancer incidence from the Childhood Cancer Registry of Piedmont, Italy were analysed using two different approaches: standard Poisson regression and a Bayesian regression approach including an autoregressive component. Our focus was on acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL), since this is hypothesised to have an infectious aetiology, but for purposes of comparison we also conducted similar analyses for selected other childhood cancer sites (acute non-lymphoblastic leukaemia (AnLL), central nervous system (CNS) tumours and neuroblastoma (NB)). The two models fitted the data equally well, but led to different interpretations of the time trends. The first produced ever-increasing rates, while the latter produced non-monotonic patterns, particularly for ALL, which showed evidence of a cyclical pattern. The Bayesian analysis produced findings that are consistent with the hypothesis of an infectious aetiology for ALL, but not for AnLL or for solid tumours (CNS and NB). Although sudden changes in time trends should be interpreted with caution, the results of the Bayesian approach are consistent with current knowledge of the natural history of childhood ALL, including a short latency time and the postulated infectious aetiology of the disease.

Space-time clustering of childhood cancer in great Britain: A national study, 1969–1993

Previous studies have provided evidence that infections may play a part in the aetiology of certain childhood cancers. The finding of space-time clustering indicates the presence of an environmental component to aetiology and is especially supportive of a role for infections. Space-time clustering occurs when excess numbers of cases of a disease are observed within small geographical locations at limited periods of time and this cannot be explained in terms of general excesses in those locations or at those times. To investigate whether infections may be involved in the aetiology of childhood cancer, we have analysed for space-time clustering using a large set of national population-based data from Great Britain for the period 1969-1993. Data were examined by a second-order procedure based on K-functions, with fixed thresholds of closeness in space (0.5-7.5 km) and closeness in time (0.1-1.5 years). Locations were addresses at diagnosis. Tests were repeated, replacing geographical distances with distances to the 19th-33rd nearest neighbours and this provided the primary result for each analysis. There were a total of 32,295 cases of childhood cancer. The analyses showed statistically significant evidence of space-time clustering for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia over the whole age range (p = 0.04), but especially for ages 1-4 years (p = 0.03). There was less statistically significant evidence for total leukaemia (p = 0.048). Significant space-time clustering was also evident for soft tissue sarcomas (p = 0.03) and osteosarcomas (p = 0.02). Results support other evidence suggesting a role for infections in the aetiology of these particular diagnostic groups.

Community clusters of childhood leukemia and lymphoma: evidence of infection?

Information suggesting that infection may be an underlying cause of childhood leukemia and lymphoma includes the occasional appearance of cases in time-space clusters within communities and increased incidence after communities experience marked population influxes (population mixing). Among 50 clusters involving cases of childhood leukemia and lymphoma investigated in the United States in 1961-1977, eight showed suggestive evidence of underlying infectious causation. In seven of the eight communities, case occurrence was associated with the attendance of patients or their siblings at particular schools or with family participation in particular church groups. In five, rapid population growth had occurred. Other findings included the possible association of cases with unusual patterns of infectious disease (rheumatic illness in one community, chickenpox in another) and with other childhood diseases, including other forms of childhood cancer. In one community, two cases of Burkitt's lymphoma occurred at the same time, and a third case arose 3 years later in boys living in a newly developing neighborhood. Such community observations support the need for continued biologic research regarding the possible role of infectious agents in childhood leukemia and lymphoma.

Allergy and infectious disease histories and the risk of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia

Infectious disease histories were evaluated in a population-based case-control study of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) as it has been hypothesised that delays in early infections are associated with an increased risk of disease. Allergy histories were also assessed as part of a broader evaluation of the role of immune factors in ALL. Cases (n = 255) were diagnosed between 1980 and 1991 at one of four referral centres in a 31-county area of New York State; controls (n = 760) were a random sample of live births from the same region, frequency matched to cases by sex, race and birth year. Data were collected by mailed questionnaire, completed by case and control parents in 1995. Allergy and infectious histories before the age at leukaemia diagnosis for cases and an equivalent age for controls were evaluated. The adjusted odds ratio and 95% confidence interval [CI] associated with a positive history of any allergy was 0.58 [95% CI 0.38, 0.88] compared with a negative allergy history. The occurrence of several common childhood illnesses before 25 months of age and ALL were assessed, with both weak positive and weak inverse associations observed. Overall, these analyses provide little support for the hypothesis that infection delay in early life is associated with an increased risk of ALL. Children with positive allergy histories reported significantly more infections than those with negative histories; however, effect modification of the infection-ALL associations by child allergy history was not observed. Nonetheless, these observations suggest the importance of assessing both allergy and infectious histories and their possible interactions when evaluating the association between these immune factors and childhood ALL.

An infectious aetiology for childhood acute leukaemia: a review of the evidence

There are three current hypotheses concerning infectious mechanisms in the aetiology of childhood leukaemia: exposure in utero or around the time of birth, delayed exposure beyond the first year of life to common infections and unusual population mixing. No specific virus has been definitively linked with childhood leukaemia and there is no evidence to date of viral genomic inclusions within leukaemic cells. The case-control and cohort studies have revealed equivocal results. Maternal infection during pregnancy has been linked with increased risk whilst breast feeding and day care attendance in the first year of life appear to be protective. There is inconclusive evidence from studies on early childhood infectious exposures, vaccination and social mixing. Some supportive evidence for an infectious aetiology is provided by the findings of space-time clustering and seasonal variation. Spatial clustering suggests that higher incidence is confined to specific areas with increased levels of population mixing, particularly in previously isolated populations. Ecological studies have also shown excess incidence with higher population mixing. The marked childhood peak in resource-rich countries and an increased incidence of the childhood peak in acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) (occurring at ages 2-6 years predominantly with precursor B-cell ALL) is supportive of the concept that reduced early infection may play a role. Genetically determined individual response to infection may be critical in the proliferation of preleukaemic clones as evidenced by the human leucocyte antigen class II polymorphic variant association with precursor B-cell and T-cell ALL.

Childhood leukaemia incidence and the population mixing hypothesis in US SEER data

We evaluated the infectious aetiology hypothesis of childhood leukaemia that rapid population influx into rural areas is associated with increased risk. Using data from the US SEER program, we found that in changes in rural county population sizes from 1980 to 1989 were associated with incidence rates for childhood acute lymphocytic leukaemia (ALL). The observed associations were strongest among children 0-4 years of age, born in the same state as diagnosis, in extremely rural counties, and when counties adjacent to nonrural counties were excluded. Similar analyses for brain and central nervous system (CNS) cancer in children, a disease less linked to this infectious hypothesis, provide evidence against methodologic bias. Similar evaluations for other decades were not meaningful due to limited sample sizes and, perhaps, increased population mobility.

Human parvovirus B19 DNA is not detected in Guthrie cards from children who have developed acute lymphoblastic leukemia

BACKGROUND

There has been much speculation about the cause of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). It has been suggested, on the basis of findings in epidemiological studies, that ALL may be initiated by an in utero infection of the fetus. The human parvovirus B19 (B19) is etiologically related to human diseases, including erythema infectiosum and aplastic crisis, but it has not yet been considered to be involved in the development of ALL. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate, whether prenatal B19 infection could still be indirectly correlated with the development of childhood ALL.

PROCEDURES

Fifty-four Guthrie cards, collected at 3-5 days of age, from Swedish children who subsequently developed ALL, as well as from 50 healthy controls, were investigated by nested PCR for the presence of B19 DNA.

RESULTS

B19 DNA was not detected in any of the Guthrie cards from ALL patients or from healthy controls, although all tested samples had amplifiable cellular DNA as confirmed by an HLA DQ specific PCR.

CONCLUSION

B19 DNA was not found in any of the Guthrie cards from children who later developed ALL or in the healthy controls. These findings suggest that it is less likely that childhood ALL is associated with an in utero in fection with B19.

Childhood cancer in relation to infections in the community during pregnancy and around the time of birth

In a retrospective cohort study of 404,106 live births in the northern region of England, 1975-1986, we investigated whether higher levels of community infections during the mother's pregnancy and in early life were risk factors for cancer, by diagnostic group (leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, Hodgkin's disease, brain/spinal tumours, neuroblastoma, other tumours), diagnosed 1975-2001 under age 15 years. Logistic regression was used to relate risk to measures of community infections (measles, respiratory and other infections) in 3 prenatal and 2 postnatal quarters. There was an increased risk of Hodgkin's disease among children exposed around birth to higher levels of measles (odds ratio for trend = 2.3, 95% confidence interval 1.3-4.2, p = 0.01). For other diagnostic groups, there was no consistent evidence of an association between risk and exposure to infections. Although the significant association observed for Hodgkin's disease may be a chance finding, consequent to multiple hypothesis testing or the ecologic nature of the study, it is consistent with other recent epidemiologic results suggesting that the risk of Hodgkin's disease may be associated with exposure to infections.

Human polyomavirus DNA is not detected in Guthrie cards (dried blood spots) from children who developed acute lymphoblastic leukemia

BACKGROUND

Epidemiological evidence has suggested that some childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) may be initiated in utero and may have an infectious etiology. The human polyomavirus JC virus (JCV) has been discussed as a candidate virus, but its presence has not been demonstrated in leukemia cells from children with ALL. The aim of this study was, therefore, to investigate if prenatal human polyomavirus infection could still indirectly be correlated to the development of childhood ALL.

PROCEDURE

Fifty-four Guthrie cards (stored, dried blood spots filter papers, routinely collected from newborns for different screening analyses), collected at 3-5 days of age, from Swedish children who subsequently developed ALL, as well as from 37 healthy controls, were investigated by nested PCR for the presence of human polyomaviruses JCV and BK virus (BKV).

RESULTS

JCV and BKV DNA were not detected in any of the Guthrie cards from ALL patients or from healthy controls, although all tested samples had amplifiable DNA as confirmed by an HLA DQ PCR.

CONCLUSIONS

JCV or BKV were not found in any of the dried blood spots of children who later developed ALL or in the healthy controls. These findings suggest that it is unlikely that childhood ALL is associated with an in utero infection with JCV or BKV, although it is not possible to exclude an association with an in utero infection that has become latent in the kidneys with very low levels of circulating virus at birth.

Population mixing, childhood leukaemia, CNS tumours and other childhood cancers in Yorkshire

We tested the hypothesis that variation in population mixing attributable to the diversity of migrants moving to an area is associated with the incidence of childhood leukaemia and other childhood cancers. An ecological analysis was performed on 954 children (<15 years) diagnosed with a malignancy between 1986 and 1996 in 532 electoral wards in Yorkshire, UK. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) were calculated for all childhood leukaemias (n=325), acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) (n=248), central nervous system (CNS) tumours (n=236) and other solid tumours (n=393) Incidence of all childhood leukaemias was significantly lower in areas of high (top decile) population mixing (IRR 0.72, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.54-0.97) and higher in areas of low (bottom decile) population mixing (IRR 1.56, 95% CI 0.73-3.34), but similar patterns of incidence were not observed for central nervous system or other solid tumours. Population mixing may be a proxy for the range of infections circulating in a community and these results are consistent with the hypothesis that greater exposure to infections reduces the risk of developing childhood leukaemia by conferring efficient modulation of the immune system.

Epidemiologic studies in a population-based childhood cancer registry in Northeast Hungary

BACKGROUND

Reports on the patterns of childhood cancer incidence are rare in Eastern Europe. To compare incidence rates and trends with international data, we processed records of the regional childhood cancer registry of Northeast Hungary.

PROCEDURE

Our computerized database contains population-based information on childhood cancer cases (<15 years) diagnosed in residents of two counties of Hungary: leukaemias from 1973, non-CNS solid tumours from 1978, and CNS tumours from 1984. After a retrospective evaluation of completeness of ascertainment, descriptive epidemiologic analyses were performed for the years of operation of the registry. Age-standardized annual incidence rates and age-specific incidences were calculated. Trends were evaluated in linear regression analysis.

RESULTS

The distribution of major histologic groups was similar to those observed in the Western countries with the exception that central nervous system tumours account for a higher percentage (27.3%). Average age-standardized annual incidence rates were as follows: all types of cancer: 120.7 per million; leukaemia: 37.3; CNS tumours: 31.6; lymphomas: 12.2; sympathetic nervous system tumours: 12.5; kidney tumours: 8.8. Significant increases were observed in incidence of leukaemia (average annual percent change AAPC: 0.7%), acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (AAPC: 1.9%), and all cancer groups (AAPC: 2.6%), but not in acute non-lymphocytic leukaemia or in CNS tumours. The strongest increases in cancer incidence were detected in the age group of 10-14 years (AAPC: 4.4%) and in infants (AAPC: 12.9%).

CONCLUSIONS

Incidences and trends are in accordance with the data in the latest literature, however, the contribution of CNS tumours and the rate of increase in total cancer incidence proved to be higher. Further detailed genetic and environmental studies of cancer registries may shed light on the etiology of the observed differences whether they represent a pattern specific for this region.

Space-time clustering of childhood lymphatic leukaemias and non-Hodgkin's lymphomas in Sweden

BACKGROUND

The discussion concerning clusters of childhood leukaemia has mainly been focused on their relation to the time and place of diagnosis. Recently some studies have indicated clustering not only at diagnosis, but also around time and place of birth. Space-time clustering at time of birth could be of special interest if the aetiological agent is of infectious origin and the induction of leukaemia either occurs pre- or perinatally or an infection at that time favours a poor subsequent immune response to the agent.

METHODS

To identify possible space-time clustering we have used the close-pair method of Knox. One-thousand-twenty recorded cases (0-14 years) of childhood acute lymphatic leukaemia and 293 cases (0-14 years) of malignant non-Hodgkin's lymphoma from Sweden between 1973-1996 were analysed. The records include date of birth and of diagnosis as well as addresses at birth and at diagnosis.

RESULTS

A significant excess of case-pairs (25 observed, 14.9 expected, p = 0.01) was observed close in date and place of birth in the 4-14 year age group with acute lymphatic leukaemia (ALL). However there was no statistically significant clustering found around time of diagnosis. When the cases of leukaemia and the non-Hodgkin's lymphomas were combined no statistically significant clustering was obtained neither at birth nor at diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

This study strengthens the evidence of space-time clustering around the birth date in children whom later developed ALL. This observation is in support of the hypothesis that pre- or perinatal infections can induce a process leading to ALL.

Early child-care and preschool experiences and the risk of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia

An infectious etiology for childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) has been suggested, yet few studies have focused on the role of early child care. Day-care histories were examined in a case-control study of ALL in New York State. Cases (n = 255) were diagnosed at one of four referral centers between 1980 and 1991; controls (n = 760) were randomly selected from livebirths in the 31 counties served by the referral centers. Self-administered questionnaires were mailed to the parents of cases and controls in 1995. Day-care histories were censored at the age of diagnosis for cases and at an equivalent date for controls. The odds ratio for children who stayed at home compared with those who attended day care for >36 months was 1.32 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.70, 2.52); the odds ratios for 1-18 and 19-36 months of day care were 1.74 (95% CI: 0.89, 3.42) and 1.32 (95% CI: 0.64, 2.71), respectively. Elimination of cases with T-cell ALL enhanced the risk. Starting care at an earlier age was not associated with a decreased risk of ALL. These findings do not support the hypothesis that infrequent contact with peers during early childhood could delay exposure to infectious diseases and increase the risk of ALL.

Space-time clustering patterns in childhood leukaemia support a role for infection

Previous studies of space-time clustering in childhood leukaemia have produced equivocal and inconsistent results. To address this issue we have used Manchester Children's Tumour Registry leukaemia data in space-time clustering analyses. Knox tests for space-time interactions between cases were applied with fixed thresholds of close in space, <5 km and close in time <1 year apart. Addresses at birth as well as diagnosis were utilized. Tests were repeated replacing geographical distance with distance to the Nth nearest neighbour. N was chosen such that the mean distance was 5 km. Data were also examined by a second order procedure based on K-functions. All methods showed highly significant evidence of space-time clustering based on place of birth and time of diagnosis, particularly for all leukaemias aged 0-14 and 0-4 years, and acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) 0-4 years. Some results based on location at diagnosis were significant but mainly gave larger P-values. The results are consistent with an infectious hypothesis. Furthermore, we found an excess of male cases over females involved in space-time pairs. We suggest this may be related to genetic differences in susceptibility to infection between males and females. These findings provide the basis for future studies to identify possible infectious agents.

Dietary bioflavonoids induce cleavage in the MLL gene and may contribute to infant leukemia

Chromosomal translocations involving the MLL gene occur in about 80% of infant leukemia. In the search for possible agents inducing infant leukemia, we identified bioflavonoids, natural substances in food as well as in dietary supplements, that cause site-specific DNA cleavage in the MLL breakpoint cluster region (BCR) in vivo. The MLL BCR DNA cleavage was shown in primary progenitor hematopoietic cells from healthy newborns and adults as well as in cell lines; it colocalized with the MLL BCR cleavage site induced by chemotherapeutic agents, such as etoposide (VP16) and doxorubicin (Dox). Both in vivo and additional in vitro experiments demonstrated topoisomerase II (topo II) as the target of bioflavonoids similar to VP16 and Dox. Based on 20 bioflavonoids tested, we identified a common structure essential for topo II-induced DNA cleavage. Reversibility experiments demonstrated a religation of the bioflavonoid as well as the VP16-induced MLL cleavage site. Our observations support a two-stage model of cellular processing of topo II inhibitors: The first and reversible stage of topo II-induced DNA cleavage results in DNA repair, but also rarely in chromosome translocations; whereas the second, nonreversible stage leads to cell death because of an accumulation of DNA damage. These results suggest that maternal ingestion of bioflavonoids may induce MLL breaks and potentially translocations in utero leading to infant and early childhood leukemia.

Investigation of leukemia cells from children with common acute lymphoblastic leukemia for genomic sequences of the primate polyomaviruses JC virus, BK virus, and simian virus 40

BACKGROUND

An infectious etiology for childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) has long been suspected, although the characteristics of the putative childhood ALL-inducing agent(s) remain a mystery. We describe the testing of ALL leukemia cells for the presence of DNA sequences of the polyomavirus family: JC virus, BK virus, and simian virus 40 (SV40).

PROCEDURE

Cryopreserved leukemia cells from 25 children between 2 and 5 years of age at the time of diagnosis and classified as having "common" ALL (B-precursor ALL expressing the CD19 and CD10 surface antigens) were tested for the presence of polyomavirus sequences using standard PCR methods.

RESULTS

Human beta-globin gene sequences were detected in 22 of 25 leukemia specimens. However, polyomavirus sequences were not detected in any of the 22 specimens with amplifiable DNA.

CONCLUSIONS

The inability to detect JC virus, BK virus, and SV40 virus DNA sequences in any of the 22 specimens with amplifiable DNA suggests that that these members of the polyomavirus family are unlikely to be causally associated with most childhood ALL. Published 1999 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Clusters and clustering of childhood cancer: a review

Methodological considerations in the study of clusters and clustering of childhood cancer are reviewed briefly. A selection of 11 studies of individual clusters of childhood leukaemia which are either particularly notable or recent and have been reported in peer review journals is then considered. Focus is placed on sources of alerts, descriptive studies, field-work studies, conclusions and communication management. Some of these studies are probably essential but they are unlikely to yield firm conclusions; studies of large data sets are recommended. No causal factor has been identified which can explain a single cluster of childhood leukaemia.

Epidemiology of leukemia and lymphoma

The causes of acute leukemia and lymphomas are still largely unknown. These malignancies account for approximately 6% of cases of cancer in the US population, and active research efforts are now underway to define etiologically important genetic or environmental factors for these conditions. Recent epidemiologic studies have focused on international variations, secular trends, genetic syndromes, familial aggregation, chromosomal abnormalities, environmental exposures, and unique subgroups defined either demographically or biologically.

A comparison of some simple methods to identify geographical areas with excess incidence of a rare disease such as childhood leukaemia

Six statistics are compared in a simulation study for their ability to identify geographical areas with a known excess incidence of a rare disease. The statistics are the standardized incidence ratio, the empirical Bayes method of Clayton and Kaldor, Poisson probability, a statistic based on the 'Breslow T' test (BT) and two statistics based on the 'Potthoff-Whittinghill' test (PW) for extra-Poisson variance. Two alternative processes of clustering are simulated in which high-risk locations could be caused by environmental sources or could be sites of microepidemics of an infectious agent contributing to a rare disease such as childhood leukaemia. The simulation processes use two parameters (proportion of cases found in clusters and mean cluster size) which are varied to embrace a variety of situations. Real and artificial data sets of small area populations are considered. The most extreme of the artificial sets has all areas of equal population size. The other data sets use the small census areas (municipalities) in Finland since these have extremely heterogeneous population size distribution. Subset selection allows examination of this variability. Receiver operator curve methodology is used to compare the efficacy of the statistics in identifying the cluster areas; statistics are compared for the proportion of true high-risk areas identified in the top 1 per cent and 10 per cent of ranked areas. One of the PW statistics performed consistently well under all circumstances, although the results for the BT statistic were marginally better when only the top 1 per cent of ranked areas was considered. The standardized incidence ratio performed consistently worst.

Population density and childhood leukaemia: results of the EUROCLUS Study

The EUROCLUS study assembled incidence data for 13,551 cases of childhood leukaemia (CL) diagnosed between 1980 and 1989 in 17 countries (or regions of countries). These were referenced by location at diagnosis to small census areas of which there were 25,723 in the study area. Population counts, surface area and, hence, population density were available for all these small areas. Previous analyses have shown limited extra-Poisson variation (EPV) of case counts within small areas; this is most pronounced in areas of intermediate population density (150-499 persons/km2). In this study, the data set was examined in more detail for evidence that variations in incidence and EPV of CL are associated with population density. Incidence showed a curvilinear association with population density and was highest in areas which were somewhat more densely populated (500-750 persons/km2), where the incidence rate ratio relative to areas having > or = 1000 persons/km2 was 1.16 (95% confidence interval 1.07-1.26) and the P value for quadratic trend across eight strata of population density was 0.02. Incidence in these areas is uniformly elevated and showed no evidence of heterogeneity (i.e. EPV). Statistically significant evidence of EPV was evident amongst some of the areas previously classified as intermediate density areas (specifically, those with a density of 250-499 persons/km2, P < 0.001 for CL). These results were interpreted in terms of the current aetiological hypotheses for CL which propose that exposure to localised epidemics of one or more common infectious agent may contribute to the development of leukaemia. They suggest that such epidemics arise regularly in moderately densely populated areas and also sporadically in areas which are somewhat less densely populated. Although other interpretations are possible, these results may assist in the identification of characteristics which infectious agents must possess if direct or indirect causes of CL.

Evidence of space-time clustering of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia in Sweden

We have examined 645 recorded cases of childhood acute lymphatic leukaemia (ALL) in Sweden during 1973-89 to identify space-time clustering by using the close-pair method of Knox. The records included date of birth and of diagnosis as well as addresses at birth and at diagnosis. There was a significant excess of case pairs close in date of birth and place of birth in the 5- to 15-year age group.

Space-time clustering of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia in parts of the U.K. (1984-1993)

Age-related differences in the incidence and immunological subtypes of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) suggest that it may be composed of more than one disease entity, each with different aetiologies. Childhood leukaemia (of which the majority of cases are ALL) has been suspected of having an infectious aetiology, but few studies have systematically examined ALL for clustering by age group. The aim of this study was to examine ALL for evidence of space-time clustering of date and place of diagnosis by age group. Knox space-time analysis was carried out separately for three different age groups: childhood (0-14 years), young adult (15-34 years) and older adults (35-79 years). Data on 968 cases of ALL aged 0-79 years, arising during 1984-1993 in the areas covered by a specialist population based register of leukaemias and lymphomas in parts of the U.K., were used in the analysis. Space-time clustering of diagnoses was limited to children aged 0-14 years. It was more prominent in those diagnosed in the period 1984-1988, than in those diagnosed in 1989-1993. The clustering may indicate an infectious aetiology for childhood ALL, or could be the result of episodic exposures to some environmental hazard.

The causes of acute leukemia

Although impressive biologic advances have increased understanding of leukemogenesis, we know little about the causes of the acute leukemias. Epidemiologic studies have focused primarily on children. Higher birth weight is associated with an increased risk of childhood acute leukemia. Several theories have been advanced that may account for these observations, and additional biologic studies are needed. Some epidemiologic studies suggest that the acute leukemias in children may have an infectious component. Again, further work, especially in the area of specific causative agents, is necessary. Another area for future epidemiologic study includes investigation of exposure to natural and synthetic DNA topoisomerase II inhibitors. Preliminary evidence suggests that exposure to these agents, which are found in certain foods and medications, may be related to the subsequent development of acute leukemia in infants.