The proportion of childhood leukaemia incidence in Great Britain that may be caused by natural background ionizing radiation

Background radiation and cancer risks: A major intellectual confrontation within the domain of radiation genetics with multiple converging biological disciplines

This paper assesses the judgments of leading radiation geneticists and cancer risk assessment scientists from the mid-1950s to mid-1970s that background radiation has a significant effect on human genetic disease and cancer incidence. This assumption was adopted by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) Biological Effects of Atomic Radiation (BEAR) I Genetics Panel for genetic diseases and subsequently applied to cancer risk assessment by other leading individuals/advisory groups (e.g., International Commission on Radiation Protection-ICRP). These recommendations assumed that a sizeable proportion of human mutations originated from background radiation due to cumulative exposure over prolonged reproductive periods and the linear nature of the dose-response. This paper shows that the assumption that background radiation is a significant cause of spontaneous mutation, genetic diseases, and cancer incidence is not supported by experimental and epidemiological findings, and discredits erroneous risk assessments that improperly influenced the recommendations of national and international advisory committees, risk assessment policies, and beliefs worldwide.

Radiation dose rate effects: what is new and what is needed?

Despite decades of research to understand the biological effects of ionising radiation, there is still much uncertainty over the role of dose rate. Motivated by a virtual workshop on the "Effects of spatial and temporal variation in dose delivery" organised in November 2020 by the Multidisciplinary Low Dose Initiative (MELODI), here, we review studies to date exploring dose rate effects, highlighting significant findings, recent advances and to provide perspective and recommendations for requirements and direction of future work. A comprehensive range of studies is considered, including molecular, cellular, animal, and human studies, with a focus on low linear-energy-transfer radiation exposure. Limits and advantages of each type of study are discussed, and a focus is made on future research needs.

The nature and consequences of a nuclear war: lessons for prevention from Ukraine 2022

This article attempts to put the Ukrainian conflict in the wider context of nuclear weapons possession and potential use, to point out how its conduct should affect public perception of such use, and the urgency for effective nuclear arms control measures including a determined resolve to implement the United Nations' 2017 Treaty on the Prevention of Nuclear Weapons.

Review of the risk of cancer following low and moderate doses of sparsely ionising radiation received in early life in groups with individually estimated doses

BACKGROUND

The detrimental health effects associated with the receipt of moderate (0.1-1 Gy) and high (>1 Gy) acute doses of sparsely ionising radiation are well established from human epidemiological studies. There is accumulating direct evidence of excess risk of cancer in a number of populations exposed at lower acute doses or doses received over a protracted period. There is evidence that relative risks are generally higher after radiation exposures in utero or in childhood.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We reviewed and summarised evidence from 60 studies of cancer or benign neoplasms following low- or moderate-level exposure in utero or in childhood from medical and environmental sources. In most of the populations studied the exposure was predominantly to sparsely ionising radiation, such as X-rays and gamma-rays. There were significant (p < 0.001) excess risks for all cancers, and particularly large excess relative risks were observed for brain/CNS tumours, thyroid cancer (including nodules) and leukaemia.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, the totality of this large body of data relating to in utero and childhood exposure provides support for the existence of excess cancer and benign neoplasm risk associated with radiation doses < 0.1 Gy, and for certain groups exposed to natural background radiation, to fallout and medical X-rays in utero, at about 0.02 Gy.

External background ionizing radiation and childhood cancer: Update of a nationwide cohort analysis

BACKGROUND

Exposure to high doses of ionizing radiation is known to cause cancer. Exposure during childhood is associated with a greater excess relative risk for leukemia and tumors of the central nervous system (CNS) than exposure in later life. Cancer risks associated with low-dose exposure (<100 mSv) are uncertain. We previously investigated the association between the incidence of childhood cancer and levels of exposure to external background radiation from terrestrial gamma and cosmic rays in Switzerland using data from a nationwide census-based cohort study. Here, we provide an update of that study using an extended follow-up period and an improved exposure model.

METHODS

We included all children 0-15 years of age registered in the Swiss national censuses 1990, 2000, and 2010-2015. We identified incident cancer cases during 1990-2016 using probabilistic record linkage with the Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry. Exposure to terrestrial and cosmic radiation at children's place of residence was estimated using geographic exposure models based on aerial spectrometric gamma-ray measurements. We estimated and included the contribution from ¹³⁷Cs deposition after the Chernobyl accident. We created a nested case-control sample and fitted conditional logistic regression models adjusting for sex, year of birth, neighborhood socioeconomic position, and modelled outdoor NO₂ concentration. We also estimated the population attributable fraction for childhood cancer due to external background radiation.

RESULTS

We included 3,401,113 children and identified 3,137 incident cases of cancer, including 951 leukemia, 495 lymphoma, and 701 CNS tumor cases. Median follow-up in the cohort was 6.0 years (interquartile range: 4.3-10.1) and median cumulative exposure since birth was 8.2 mSv (range: 0-31.2). Hazard ratios per 1 mSv increase in cumulative dose of external background radiation were 1.04 (95% CI: 1.01-1.06) for all cancers combined, 1.06 (1.01-1.10) for leukemia, 1.03 (0.98-1.08) for lymphoma, and 1.06 (1.01-1.11) for CNS tumors. Adjustment for potential confounders had little effect on the results. Based on these results, the estimated population attributable fraction for leukemia and CNS tumors due to external background radiation was 32% (7-49%) and 34% (5-51%), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that background ionizing radiation contributes to the risk of leukemia and CNS tumors in children.

Radiation risks and uncertainties: a scoping review to support communication and informed decision-making

Although radiation protection is challenged by many uncertainties, there is no systematic study investigating the definitions and types of these uncertainties. To address this gap, in this paper we offer a scoping review to comprehensively analyse, for the first time, peer-reviewed scientific articles (n = 33) related to uncertainties in the following radiation exposure situations: nuclear emergencies, decommissioning of nuclear/radiological installations and long-term radiological exposure situations (e.g. naturally occurring radioactive materials). The results suggest that firstly, there is no agreement regarding definitions of uncertainty, which is mainly defined based on its sources, types or categories rather than by its meaning. Secondly, different actors are faced with different types of uncertainties. Uncertainties of the scientific community are mostly data and methodology-driven (e.g. dose-response relationships), those of the decision-makers are related to the likely consequences of decision options and public reactions, while laypeople's uncertainties are mainly related to the trustworthiness of experts or the emotional potential of specific risk exposures. Furthermore, the majority of articles focus on the uncertainties of the scientific community, while those of the information receivers (i.e. decision-makers and laypeople) receive much less consideration. Finally, there was no difference in types of uncertainties across the different risk-related study areas analysed (radiation versus other risks). Based on these findings, we provide some preliminary recommendations regarding research on uncertainty related to radiation protection, as well as communication practices.

Dose limits for occupational exposure to ionising radiation and genotoxic carcinogens: a German perspective

This paper summarises the view of the German Commission on Radiological Protection ("Strahlenschutzkommission", SSK) on the rationale behind the currently valid dose limits and dose constraints for workers recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). The paper includes a discussion of the reasoning behind current dose limits followed by a discussion of the detriment used by ICRP as a measure for stochastic health effects. Studies on radiation-induced cancer are reviewed because this endpoint represents the most important contribution to detriment. Recent findings on radiation-induced circulatory disease that are currently not included in detriment calculation are also reviewed. It appeared that for detriment calculations the contribution of circulatory diseases plays only a secondary role, although the uncertainties involved in their risk estimates are considerable. These discussions are complemented by a review of the procedures currently in use in Germany, or in discussion elsewhere, to define limits for genotoxic carcinogens. To put these concepts in perspective, actual occupational radiation exposures are exemplified with data from Germany, for the year 2012, and regulations in Germany are compared to the recommendations issued by ICRP. Conclusions include, among others, considerations on radiation protection concepts currently in use and recommendations of the SSK on the limitation of annual effective dose and effective dose cumulated over a whole working life.

Ionising radiation and childhood leukaemia revisited

Increased incidences of childhood acute leukaemia were noted among survivors of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. In Western societies, Childhood Acute Lymphoblastic Leukaemia has a distinct epidemiology peaking at 3 years old. Exposure to ionising radiation is an established hazard but it is difficult to gauge the precise risk of less than 100 mSv. Since 1983 significant leukaemia incidences have been reported among families residing near nuclear installations. The target cells (naïve neonatal lymphocytes) get exposed to multiple xenobiotic challenges and undergo extraordinary proliferation and physiological somatic genetic change. Population movements and ionising radiation are considered taking account of updated understanding of radiation biology, cancer cytogenetics and immunological diversity. Double Strand Breaks in DNA arise through metabolic generation of Reactive Oxygen Species, and nearly always are repaired; but mis-repairs can be oncogenic. Recombinant Activating Gene enzymes in rapidly dividing perinatal pre-B lymphocytes being primed for antibody diversity are targeted to Signal Sequences in the Immunoglobulin genes. off target pseudo-sequences may allow RAG enzymes to create autosomal DSBs which, when mis-repaired, become translocated oncogenes. Immunogens acting by chance at crucial stages may facilitate this. In such circumstances, oncogenic DSBs from ionising radiation are less likely to be significant.

Childhood cancer research in oxford III: The work of CCRG on ionising radiation

BACKGROUND

High doses of ionising radiation are a known cause of childhood cancer and great public and professional interest attaches to possible links between childhood cancer and lower doses, particularly of man-made radiation. This paper describes work done by the Childhood Cancer Research Group (CCRG) on this topic METHODS: Most UK investigations have made use of the National Registry of Childhood Tumours and associated controls. Epidemiological investigations have included national incidence and mortality analyses, geographical investigations, record linkage and case-control studies. Dosimetric studies use biokinetic and dosimetric modelling.

RESULTS

This paper reviews the work of the CCRG on the association between exposure to ionising radiation and childhood cancer, 1975-2014.

CONCLUSION

The work of CCRG has been influential in developing understanding of the causes of 'clusters' of childhood cancer and the risks arising from exposure to ionising radiation both natural and man-made. Some clusters around nuclear installations have certainly been observed, but ionising radiation does not seem to be a plausible cause. The group's work has also been instrumental in discounting the hypothesis that paternal preconception irradiation was a cause of childhood cancers and has demonstrated an increased leukaemia risk for children exposed to higher levels of natural gamma-ray radiation.

Survival adjusted cancer risks attributable to radiation exposure from cardiac catheterisations in children

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the risk of developing cancer in relation to the typical radiation doses received from a range of X-ray guided cardiac catheterisations in children, taking variable survival into account.

METHODS

Radiation doses were estimated for 2749 procedures undertaken at five UK hospitals using Monte Carlo simulations. The lifetime attributable risk (LAR) of cancer incidence was estimated using models developed by the Biological Effects of Ionising Radiation committee, based on both normal life expectancy, and as a function of attained age, from 20 to 80 years, to take reduced life expectancy into account.

RESULTS

The radiation-related risks from these procedures are dominated by lung and breast cancer (for females). Assuming normal life expectancy, central LAR estimates for cancer incidence, based on median doses, ranged from <1 in 2000 for atrial septal defect occlusions to as high as 1 in 150 for valve replacements. For a reduced life expectancy of 50 years, estimated risks are lower by a factor of around 7. For conditions with especially poor survival (age 20 years), such as hypoplastic left heart syndrome, estimated cancer risks attributable to radiation were <1 in 20 000.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on recent UK radiation dose levels, the risk of cancer following cardiac catheterisations is relatively low and strongly modified by survival and the type of procedure. The risk of breast cancer, especially following pulmonary artery angioplasty and valve replacements, is the greatest concern.

Residential proximity to environmental pollution sources and risk of rare tumors in children

BACKGROUND

Few epidemiologic studies have explored risk factors for rare tumors in children, and the role of environmental factors needs to be assessed.

OBJECTIVES

To ascertain the effect of residential proximity to both industrial and urban areas on childhood cancer risk, taking industrial groups into account.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based case-control study of five childhood cancers in Spain (retinoblastoma, hepatic tumors, soft tissue sarcomas, germ cell tumors, and other epithelial neoplasms/melanomas), including 557 incident cases from the Spanish Registry of Childhood Tumors (period 1996-2011), and 3342 controls individually matched by year of birth, sex, and region of residence. Distances were computed from the residences to the 1271 industries and the 30 urban areas with ≥75,000 inhabitants located in the study area. Using logistic regression, odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs) for categories of distance to industrial and urban pollution sources were calculated, with adjustment for matching variables and socioeconomic confounders.

RESULTS

Children living near industrial and urban areas as a whole showed no excess risk for any of the tumors analyzed. However, isolated statistical associations (OR; 95%CI) were found between retinoblastoma and proximity to industries involved in glass and mineral fibers (2.49; 1.01-6.12 at 3km) and organic chemical industries (2.54; 1.10-5.90 at 2km). Moreover, soft tissue sarcomas registered the lower risks in the environs of industries as a whole (0.59; 0.38-0.93 at 4km).

CONCLUSIONS

We have found isolated statistical associations between retinoblastoma and proximity to industries involved in glass and mineral fibers and organic chemical industries.

Childhood leukemia and residential proximity to industrial and urban sites

BACKGROUND

Few risk factors for the childhood leukemia are well established. While a small fraction of cases of childhood leukemia might be partially attributable to some diseases or ionizing radiation exposure, the role of industrial and urban pollution also needs to be assessed.

OBJECTIVES

To ascertain the possible effect of residential proximity to both industrial and urban areas on childhood leukemia, taking into account industrial groups and toxic substances released.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based case-control study of childhood leukemia in Spain, covering 638 incident cases gathered from the Spanish Registry of Childhood Tumors and for those Autonomous Regions with 100% coverage (period 1990-2011), and 13,188 controls, individually matched by year of birth, sex, and autonomous region of residence. Distances were computed from the respective subject's residences to the 1068 industries and the 157 urban areas with ≥10,000 inhabitants, located in the study area. Using logistic regression, odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs) for categories of distance to industrial and urban pollution sources were calculated, with adjustment for matching variables.

RESULTS

Excess risk of childhood leukemia was observed for children living near (≤2.5 km) industries (OR=1.31; 95%CI=1.03-1.67) - particularly glass and mineral fibers (OR=2.42; 95%CI=1.49-3.92), surface treatment using organic solvents (OR=1.87; 95%CI=1.24-2.83), galvanization (OR=1.86; 95%CI=1.07-3.21), production and processing of metals (OR=1.69; 95%CI=1.22-2.34), and surface treatment of metals (OR=1.62; 95%CI=1.22-2.15) - , and urban areas (OR=1.36; 95%CI=1.02-1.80).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study furnishes some evidence that living in the proximity of industrial and urban sites may be a risk factor for childhood leukemia.

Protection of the gametes embryo/fetus from prenatal radiation exposure

There is no convincing evidence of germline mutation manifest as heritable disease in the offspring of humans attributable to ionizing radiation, yet radiation clearly induces mutations in microbes and somatic cells of rodents and humans. Doses to the embryo estimated to be in the range of 0.15-0.2 Gy during the pre-implantation and pre-somite stages may increase the risk of embryonic loss. However, an increased risk of congenital malformations or growth retardation has not been observed in the surviving embryos. These results are primarily derived from mammalian animal studies and are referred to as the "all-or-none phenomenon." The tissue reaction effects of ionizing radiation (previously referred to as deterministic effects) are congenital malformations, mental retardation, decreased intelligence quotient, microcephaly, neurobehavioral effects, convulsive disorders, growth retardation (height and weight), and embryonic and fetal death (miscarriage, stillbirth). All these effects are consistent with having a threshold dose below which there is no increased risk. The risk of cancer in offspring that have been exposed to diagnostic x-ray procedures while in utero has been debated for 55 y. High doses to the embryo or fetus (e.g., >0.5 Gy) increase the risk of cancer. Most pregnant women exposed to x-ray procedures and other forms of ionizing radiation today received doses to the embryo or fetus <0.1 Gy. The risk of cancer in offspring exposed in utero at exposures <0.1 Gy is controversial and has not been fully resolved. Diagnostic imaging procedures using ionizing radiation that are clinically indicated for the pregnant patient and her fetus should be performed because the clinical benefits outweigh the potential oncogenic risks.

Radiation-induced myeloid leukemia in murine models

The use of radiation therapy is a cornerstone of modern cancer treatment. The number of patients that undergo radiation as a part of their therapy regimen is only increasing every year, but this does not come without cost. As this number increases, so too does the incidence of secondary, radiation-induced neoplasias, creating a need for therapeutic agents targeted specifically towards incidence reduction and treatment of these cancers. Development and efficacy testing of these agents requires not only extensive in vitro testing but also a set of reliable animal models to accurately recreate the complex situations of radiation-induced carcinogenesis. As radiation-induced leukemic progression often involves genomic changes such as rearrangements, deletions, and changes in methylation, the laboratory mouse Mus musculus, with its fully sequenced genome, is a powerful tool in cancer research. This fact, combined with the molecular and physiological similarities it shares with man and its small size and high rate of breeding in captivity, makes it the most relevant model to use in radiation-induced leukemia research. In this work, we review relevant M. musculus inbred and F₁ hybrid animal models, as well as methods of induction of radiation-induced myeloid leukemia. Associated molecular pathologies are also included.

A hypothesis to explain childhood cancers near nuclear power plants

Over 60 epidemiological studies world-wide have examined cancer incidences in children near nuclear power plants (NPPs): most of them indicate leukemia increases. These include the 2008 KiKK study commissioned by the German Government which found relative risks (RR) of 1.6 in total cancers and 2.2 in leukemias among infants living within 5 km of all German NPPs. The KiKK study has retriggered the debate as to the cause(s) of these increased cancers. A suggested hypothesis is that the increased cancers arise from radiation exposures to pregnant women near NPPs. However any theory has to account for the >10,000 fold discrepancy between official dose estimates from NPP emissions and observed increased risks. An explanation may be that doses from spikes in NPP radionuclide emissions are significantly larger than those estimated by official models which are diluted through the use of annual averages. In addition, risks to embryos/fetuses are greater than those to adults and haematopoietic tissues appear more radiosensitive in embryos/fetuses than in newborn babies. The product of possible increased doses and possible increased risks per dose may provide an explanation.

Carcinogenic risks of prenatal ionizing radiation

The risk of cancer in offspring who have been exposed to diagnostic X-ray procedures while in utero has been debated for 55 years. High doses at high dose rates to the embryo or fetus (e.g. >0.5 Gy) increase the risk of cancer. This has been demonstrated in human epidemiology studies as well as in mammalian animal studies. Most pregnant women exposed to diagnostic X-ray procedures or the diagnostic use of radionuclides receive doses to the embryo or fetus <0.1 Gy. The risk of cancer in offspring exposed in utero at a low dose such as <0.1 Gy is controversial and has not been determined.

The risk of leukaemia in young children from exposure to tritium and carbon-14 in the discharges of German nuclear power stations and in the fallout from atmospheric nuclear weapons testing

Towards the end of 2007, the results were published from a case-control study (the "KiKK Study") of cancer in young children, diagnosed <5 years of age during 1980-2003 while resident near nuclear power stations in western Germany. The study found a tendency for cases of leukaemia to live closer to the nearest nuclear power station than their matched controls, producing an odds ratio that was raised to a statistically significant extent for residence within 5 km of a nuclear power station. The findings of the study received much publicity, but a detailed radiological risk assessment demonstrated that the radiation doses received by young children from discharges of radioactive material from the nuclear reactors were much lower than those received from natural background radiation and far too small to be responsible for the statistical association reported in the KiKK Study. This has led to speculation that conventional radiological risk assessments have grossly underestimated the risk of leukaemia in young children posed by exposure to man-made radionuclides, and particular attention has been drawn to the possible role of tritium and carbon-14 discharges in this supposedly severe underestimation of risk. Both (3)H and (14)C are generated naturally in the upper atmosphere, and substantial increases in these radionuclides in the environment occurred as a result of their production by atmospheric testing of nuclear weapons during the late 1950s and early 1960s. If the leukaemogenic effect of these radionuclides has been seriously underestimated to the degree necessary to explain the KiKK Study findings, then a pronounced increase in the worldwide incidence of leukaemia among young children should have followed the notably elevated exposure to (3)H and (14)C from nuclear weapons testing fallout. To investigate this hypothesis, the time series of incidence rates of leukaemia among young children <5 years of age at diagnosis has been examined from ten cancer registries from three continents and both hemispheres, which include registration data from the early 1960s or before. No evidence of a markedly increased risk of leukaemia in young children following the peak of above-ground nuclear weapons testing, or that incidence rates are related to level of exposure to fallout, is apparent from these registration rates, providing strong grounds for discounting the idea that the risk of leukaemia in young children from (3)H or (14)C (or any other radionuclide present in both nuclear weapons testing fallout and discharges from nuclear installations) has been grossly underestimated and that such exposure can account for the findings of the KiKK Study.

Potential impacts of radon, terrestrial gamma and cosmic rays on childhood leukemia in France: a quantitative risk assessment

Previous epidemiological studies and quantitative risk assessments (QRA) have suggested that natural background radiation may be a cause of childhood leukemia. The present work uses a QRA approach to predict the excess risk of childhood leukemia in France related to three components of natural radiation: radon, cosmic rays and terrestrial gamma rays, using excess relative and absolute risk models proposed by the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR). Both models were developed from the Life Span Study (LSS) of Japanese A-bomb survivors. Previous risk assessments were extended by considering uncertainties in radiation-related leukemia risk model parameters as part of this process, within a Bayesian framework. Estimated red bone marrow doses cumulated during childhood by the average French child due to radon, terrestrial gamma and cosmic rays are 4.4, 7.5 and 4.3 mSv, respectively. The excess fractions of cases (expressed as percentages) associated with these sources of natural radiation are 20 % [95 % credible interval (CI) 0-68 %] and 4 % (95 % CI 0-11 %) under the excess relative and excess absolute risk models, respectively. The large CIs, as well as the different point estimates obtained under these two models, highlight the uncertainties in predictions of radiation-related childhood leukemia risks. These results are only valid provided that models developed from the LSS can be transferred to the population of French children and to chronic natural radiation exposures, and must be considered in view of the currently limited knowledge concerning other potential risk factors for childhood leukemia. Last, they emphasize the need for further epidemiological investigations of the effects of natural radiation on childhood leukemia to reduce uncertainties and help refine radiation protection standards.

Independent analysis of the radiation risk for leukaemia in children and adults with mortality data (1950-2003) of Japanese A-bomb survivors

A recent analysis of leukaemia mortality in Japanese A-bomb survivors has applied descriptive models, collected together from previous studies, to derive a joint excess relative risk estimate (ERR) by multi-model inference (MMI) (Walsh and Kaiser in Radiat Environ Biophys 50:21-35, 2011). The models use a linear-quadratic dose response with differing dose effect modifiers. In the present study, a set of more than 40 models has been submitted to a rigorous statistical selection procedure which fosters the parsimonious deployment of model parameters based on pairwise likelihood ratio tests. Nested models were consequently excluded from risk assessment. The set comprises models of the excess absolute risk (EAR) and two types of non-standard ERR models with sigmoidal responses or two line spline functions with a changing slope at a break point. Due to clearly higher values of the Akaike Information Criterion, none of the EAR models has been selected, but two non-standard ERR models qualified for MMI. The preferred ERR model applies a purely quadratic dose response which is slightly damped by an exponential factor at high doses and modified by a power function for attained age. Compared to the previous analysis, the present study reports similar point estimates and confidence intervals (CI) of the ERR from MMI for doses between 0.5 and 2.5 Sv. However, at lower doses, the point estimates are markedly reduced by factors between two and five, although the reduction was not statistically significant. The 2.5 % percentiles of the ERR from the preferred quadratic-exponential model did not fall below zero risk in exposure scenarios for children, adolescents and adults at very low doses down to 10 mSv. Yet, MMI produced risk estimates with a positive 2.5 % percentile only above doses of some 300 mSv. Compared to CI from a single model of choice, CI from MMI are broadened in cohort strata with low statistical power by a combination of risk extrapolations from several models. Reverting to MMI can relieve the dilemma of needing to choose between models with largely different consequences for risk assessment in public health.

The risk of childhood leukaemia following exposure to ionising radiation--a review

Since the early years of follow-up of the Japanese atomic-bomb survivors, it has been apparent that childhood leukaemia has a particular sensitivity to induction by ionising radiation, the excess relative risk (ERR) being expressed as a temporal wave with time since exposure. This pattern has been generally confirmed by studies of children treated with radiotherapy. Case-control studies of childhood leukaemia and antenatal exposure to diagnostic x-rays, a recent large cohort study of leukaemia following CT examinations of young people, and a recent large case-control study of natural background γ-radiation and childhood leukaemia have found evidence of raised risks following low-level exposure. These findings indicate that an ERR/Sv for childhood leukaemia of ~50, which may be derived from risk models based upon the Japanese atomic-bomb survivors, is broadly applicable to low dose or low dose-rate exposure circumstances.

Mouse models of radiation-induced cancers

Radiation-induced (RI) secondary cancers were not a major clinical concern even as little as 15 years ago. However, advances in cancer diagnostics, therapy, and supportive care have saved numerous lives and many former cancer patients are now living for 5, 10, 20, and more years beyond their initial diagnosis. The majority of these patients have received radiotherapy as a part of their treatment regimen and are now beginning to develop secondary cancers arising from normal tissue exposure to damaging effects of ionizing radiation. Because historically patients rarely survived past the extended latency periods inherent to these RI cancers, very little effort was channeled towards the research leading to the development of therapeutic agents intended to prevent or ameliorate oncogenic effects of normal tissue exposure to radiation. The number of RI cancers is expected to increase very rapidly in the near future, but the field of cancer biology might not be prepared to address important issues related to this phenomena. One such issue is the ability to accurately differentiate between primary tumors and de novo arising secondary tumors in the same patient. Another issue is the lack of therapeutic agents intended to reduce such cancers in the future. To address these issues, large-scale epidemiological studies must be supplemented with appropriate animal modeling studies. This work reviews relevant mouse (Mus musculus) models of inbred and F1 animals and methodologies of induction of most relevant radiation-associated cancers: leukemia, lymphoma, and lung and breast cancers. Where available, underlying molecular pathologies are included.

Mouse models for efficacy testing of agents against radiation carcinogenesis—a literature review

As the number of cancer survivors treated with radiation as a part of their therapy regimen is constantly increasing, so is concern about radiation-induced cancers. This increases the need for therapeutic and mitigating agents against secondary neoplasias. Development and efficacy testing of these agents requires not only extensive in vitro assessment, but also a set of reliable animal models of radiation-induced carcinogenesis. The laboratory mouse (Mus musculus) remains one of the best animal model systems for cancer research due to its molecular and physiological similarities to man, small size, ease of breeding in captivity and a fully sequenced genome. This work reviews relevant M. musculus inbred and F₁ hybrid animal models and methodologies of induction of radiation-induced leukemia, thymic lymphoma, breast, and lung cancer in these models. Where available, the associated molecular pathologies are also included.

A record-based case-control study of natural background radiation and the incidence of childhood leukaemia and other cancers in Great Britain during 1980-2006

We conducted a large record-based case-control study testing associations between childhood cancer and natural background radiation. Cases (27,447) born and diagnosed in Great Britain during 1980-2006 and matched cancer-free controls (36,793) were from the National Registry of Childhood Tumours. Radiation exposures were estimated for mother's residence at the child's birth from national databases, using the County District mean for gamma rays, and a predictive map based on domestic measurements grouped by geological boundaries for radon. There was 12% excess relative risk (ERR) (95% CI 3, 22; two-sided P=0.01) of childhood leukaemia per millisievert of cumulative red bone marrow dose from gamma radiation; the analogous association for radon was not significant, ERR 3% (95% CI -4, 11; P=0.35). Associations for other childhood cancers were not significant for either exposure. Excess risk was insensitive to adjustment for measures of socio-economic status. The statistically significant leukaemia risk reported in this reasonably powered study (power ~50%) is consistent with high-dose rate predictions. Substantial bias is unlikely, and we cannot identify mechanisms by which confounding might plausibly account for the association, which we regard as likely to be causal. The study supports the extrapolation of high-dose rate risk models to protracted exposures at natural background exposure levels.

Numbers and proportions of leukemias in young people and adults induced by radiation of natural origin

Natural sources contribute a large fraction of the radiation exposure of the general public. Under the linear no-threshold hypothesis risk decreases in proportion to decreasing dose without a threshold. We use recent estimates of doses to the red bone marrow to calculate the number and proportion of cases of leukemia in England induced by natural radiation. We calculate that about 5% of cases of leukemia, excluding chronic lymphocytic leukemia, up to the age of 80 years are induced by this background radiation. In young people up to the age of 25 years the attributable fraction is about 15%, substantially lower than a previous estimate.

Multi-model inference of adult and childhood leukaemia excess relative risks based on the Japanese A-bomb survivors mortality data (1950-2000)

Some relatively new issues that augment the usual practice of ignoring model uncertainty, when making inference about parameters of a specific model, are brought to the attention of the radiation protection community here. Nine recently published leukaemia risk models, developed with the Japanese A-bomb epidemiological mortality data, have been included in a model-averaging procedure so that the main conclusions do not depend on just one type of model or statistical test. The models have been centred here at various adult and young ages at exposure, for some short times since exposure, in order to obtain specially computed childhood Excess Relative Risks (ERR) with uncertainties that account for correlations in the fitted parameters associated with the ERR dose-response. The model-averaged ERR at 1 Sv was not found to be statistically significant for attained ages of 7 and 12 years but was statistically significant for attained ages of 17, 22 and 55 years. Consequently, such risks when applied to other situations, such as children in the vicinity of nuclear installations or in estimates of the proportion of childhood leukaemia incidence attributable to background radiation (i.e. low doses for young ages and short times since exposure), are only of very limited value, with uncertainty ranges that include zero risk. For example, assuming a total radiation dose to a 5-year-old child of 10 mSv and applying the model-averaged risk at 10 mSv for a 7-year-old exposed at 2 years of age would result in an ERR=0.33, 95% CI: -0.51 to 1.22. One model (United Nations scientific committee on the effects of atomic radiation report. Volume 1. Annex A: epidemiological studies of radiation and cancer, United Nations, New York, 2006) weighted model-averaged risks of leukaemia most strongly by half of the total unity weighting and is recommended for application in future leukaemia risk assessments that continue to ignore model uncertainty. However, on the basis of the analysis presented here, it is generally recommended to take model uncertainty into account in future risk analyses.

A precautionary public health protection strategy for the possible risk of childhood leukaemia from exposure to power frequency magnetic fields

Background

Epidemiological evidence showing a consistent association between the risk of childhood leukaemia and exposure to power frequency magnetic fields has been accumulating. This debate considers the additional precautionary intervention needed to manage this risk, when it exceeds the protection afforded by the exposure guidelines as recommended by the International Commission on Non-Ionizing Radiation Protection.

Methods

The Bradford-Hill Criteria are guidelines for evaluating the scientific evidence that low frequency magnetic fields cause childhood leukaemia. The criteria are used for assessing the strength of scientific evidence and here have been applied to considering the strength of evidence that exposures to extremely low frequency magnetic fields may increase the risk of childhood leukaemia. The applicability of precaution is considered using the risk management framework outlined in a European Commission (EC) communication on the Precautionary Principle. That communication advises that measures should be proportionate, non-discriminatory, consistent with similar measures already taken, based on an examination of the benefits and costs of action and inaction, and subject to review in the light of new scientific findings.

Results

The main evidence for a risk is an epidemiological association observed in several studies and meta-analyses; however, the number of highly exposed children is small and the association could be due to a combination of selection bias, confounding and chance. Corroborating experimental evidence is limited insofar as there is no clear indication of harm at the field levels implicated; however, the aetiology of childhood leukaemia is poorly understood. Taking a precautionary approach suggests that low-cost intervention to reduce exposure is appropriate. This assumes that if the risk is real, its impact is likely to be small. It also recognises the consequential cost of any major intervention. The recommendation is controversial in that other interpretations of the data are possible, and low-cost intervention may not fully alleviate the risk.

Conclusions

The debate shows how the EC risk management framework can be used to apply the Precautionary Principle to small and uncertain public health risks. However, despite the need for evidence-based policy making, many of the decisions remain value driven and therefore subjective.

The statistical power of epidemiological studies analyzing the relationship between exposure to ionizing radiation and cancer, with special reference to childhood leukemia and natural background radiation

The etiology of childhood leukemia remains generally unknown, although risk models based on the Japanese A-bomb survivors imply that the dose accumulated from protracted exposure to low-level natural background ionizing radiation materially raises the risk of leukemia in children. In this paper a novel Monte Carlo score-test methodology is used to assess the statistical power of cohort, ecological and case-control study designs, using the linear low-dose part of the BEIR V model derived from the Japanese data. With 10 (or 20) years of follow-up of childhood leukemias in Great Britain, giving about 4600 (or 9200) cases, under an individual-based cohort design there is 67.9% (or 90.9%) chance of detecting an excess (at 5% significance level, one-sided test); little difference is made by extreme heterogeneity in risk. For an ecological design these figures reduce to 57.9% (or 83.2%). Case-control studies with five controls per case achieve much of the power of a cohort design, 61.1% (or 86.0%). However, participation bias may seriously affect studies that require individual consent, and area-based studies are subject to severe interpretational problems. For this reason register-based studies, in particular those that make use of predicted doses that avoid the need for interviews, have considerable advantages. We argue that previous studies have been underpowered (all have power <80%), and some are also subject to unquantifiable biases and confounding. Sufficiently large studies should be capable of detecting the predicted risk attributable to natural background radiation.

Temporal trends in childhood leukaemia incidence following exposure to radioactive fallout from atmospheric nuclear weapons testing

Notably raised rates of childhood leukaemia incidence have been found near some nuclear installations, in particular Sellafield and Dounreay in the United Kingdom, but risk assessments have concluded that the radiation doses estimated to have been received by children or in utero as a result of operations at these installations are much too small to account for the reported increases in incidence. This has led to speculation that the risk of childhood leukaemia arising from internal exposure to radiation following the intake of radioactive material released from nuclear facilities has been substantially underestimated. The radionuclides discharged from many nuclear installations are similar to those released into the global environment by atmospheric nuclear weapons testing, which was at its height in the late-1950s and early-1960s. Measurements of anthropogenic radionuclides in members of the general public resident in the vicinity of Sellafield and Dounreay have found levels that do not differ greatly from those in persons living remote from nuclear installations that are due to ubiquitous exposure to the radioactive debris of nuclear weapons testing. Therefore, if the leukaemia risk to children resulting from deposition within the body of radioactive material discharged from nuclear facilities has been grossly underestimated, then a pronounced excess of childhood leukaemia would have been expected as a consequence of the short period of intense atmospheric weapons testing. We have examined childhood leukaemia incidence in 11 large-scale cancer registries in three continents for which data were available at least as early as 1962. We found no evidence of a wave of excess cases corresponding to the peak of radioactive fallout from atmospheric weapons testing. The absence of a discernible increase in the incidence of childhood leukaemia following the period of maximum exposure to the radioactive debris of this testing weighs heavily against the suggestion that conventional methods are seriously in error when assessing the risk of childhood leukaemia from exposure to man-made radionuclides released from nuclear installations.

Childhood cancer near German nuclear power stations

In 2008, the Kinderkrebs in der Umgebung von Kernkraftwerken (KiKK) study in Germany reported a 60% increase in solid cancers and a 120% increase in leukemias among children living within 5 km of all German nuclear power stations. The study has triggered debates as to the cause(s) of these increased cancers. This article reports on the findings of the KiKK study; discusses past and more recent epidemiological studies of leukemias near nuclear installations around the world, and outlines a possible biological mechanism to explain the increased cancers. This suggests that the observed high rates of infant leukemias may be a teratogenic effect from radionuclides incorporated by pregnant women living near nuclear reactors. Doses and risks from environmental emissions to embryos and fetuses may be larger than suspected. Hematopoietic tissues appear to be considerably more radiosensitive in embryos/fetuses than in newborn babies. Recommendations for advice to local residents and for further research are made.

Updated estimates of the proportion of childhood leukaemia incidence in Great Britain that may be caused by natural background ionising radiation

The aetiology of childhood leukaemia remains generally unknown, although exposure to moderate and high levels of ionising radiation, such as was experienced during the atomic bombings of Japan or from radiotherapy, is an established cause. Risk models based primarily upon studies of the Japanese A-bomb survivors imply that low-level exposure to ionising radiation, including to ubiquitous natural background radiation, also raises the risk of childhood leukaemia. In a recent paper (Wakeford et al 2009 Leukaemia 23 770-6) we estimated the proportion of childhood leukaemia incidence in Great Britain attributable to natural background radiation to be about 20%. In this paper we employ the two sets of published leukaemia risk models used previously, but use recently published revised estimates of natural background radiation doses received by the red bone marrow of British children to update the previous results. Using the newer dosimetry we calculate that the best estimate of the proportion of cases of childhood leukaemia in Great Britain predicted to be attributable to this source of exposure is 15-20%, although the uncertainty associated with certain stages in the calculation (e.g. the nature of the transfer of risk between populations and the pertinent dose received from naturally occurring alpha-particle-emitting radionuclides) is significant. The slightly lower attributable proportions compared with those previously derived by Wakeford et al (Leukaemia 2009 23 770-6) are largely due to the lower doses (and in particular lower high LET doses) for the first year of life.

Dose to red bone marrow of infants, children and adults from radiation of natural origin

Natural radiation sources contribute much the largest part of the radiation exposure of the average person. This paper examines doses from natural radiation to the red bone marrow, the tissue in which leukaemia is considered to originate, with particular emphasis on doses to children. The most significant contributions are from x-rays and gamma rays, radionuclides in food and inhalation of isotopes of radon and their decay products. External radiation sources and radionuclides other than radon dominate marrow doses at all ages. The variation with age of the various components of marrow dose is considered, including doses received in utero and in each year up to the age of 15. Doses in utero include contributions resulting from the ingestion of radionuclides by the mother and placental transfer to the foetus. Postnatal doses include those from radionuclides in breast-milk and from radionuclides ingested in other foods. Doses are somewhat higher in the first year of life and there is a general slow decline from the second year of life onwards. The low linear energy transfer (LET) component of absorbed dose to the red bone marrow is much larger than the high LET component. However, because of the higher radiation weighting factor for the latter it contributes about 40% of the equivalent dose incurred up to the age of 15.